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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • China-Taiwan conflict

    The article underscores the centrality of Taiwan in the realms of semiconductor production and how that dominant spills over in geopolitics.

    Silicon shield of Taiwan

    • Taiwan’s security situation has been worsening amidst mounting economic, political and military pressure from China.
    • Any Chinese attack on Taiwan that disrupts the flow of semiconductors would produce significant challenges not only for the US but also China that relies on semiconductor supplies from Taiwan.
    • That factor appears to be preventing the crisis from boiling over into a full-scale war that could draw the US and Japan into it.
    •  It is Taiwan’s so-called “silicon shield”.

    Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor industry

    • Taiwan is the world’s leading producer of semiconductors and other electronic components.
    • The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has more than 55 per cent of the global market share in the production of high-end custom-made chips.
    • Of the two rival companies that have survived, US-based Intel is in trouble and Korea’s Samsung has challenges of its own.
    •  There will be no generation of data without the semiconductors.
    • It might be more accurate to say that “semiconductors are the new oil” and their production is increasingly dominated by Taiwan and the TMSC.

    Geopolitics over Taiwan

    • As its economic heft and political salience rose in the 21st century, China has ratcheted up pressure on countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
    • China has also compelled international organisations to push Taiwan out of their activities, even when Taiwan had much to contribute.
    • Amidst the deterioration of US-China relations in recent years, President Donald Trump was far more supportive of Taiwan than his recent predecessors.
    • The Biden team has also signalled continuity with Trump’s Taiwan policies.
    • All indications are that Washington will continue to seek some technological decoupling and diversification of sensitive supplies away from China.
    • Taiwan will inevitably be the key element in the American quest for resilient supply chains in the digital domain.

    Opportunity for India

    • Taiwan’s position as a semiconductor superpower opens the door for more intensive strategic-economic cooperation between Delhi and Taipei.
    • Part of the problem is that India’s strategic community continues to view Taiwan as an adjunct to India’s “One-China policy”.
    • India’s policy oscillates between keeping needless distance with Taipei when ties with Beijing are warm and remembering it when Sino-Indian ties enter a freeze.
    • This changed in the early 1990s, when it began to engage with Taiwan, but the policy remained a restricted one.
    • In the last few years, though, there has been a steady expansion of bilateral engagement.
    • Trade has increased from about $1 billion in 2001 to about $7 billion in 2018.
    • India has made a special effort to woo Taiwanese companies that are moving some of their production away from China.
    • India is yet to tap into the full range of commercial and technological opportunities possibilities with Taiwan.
    • This is particularly true of semiconductor production.

    Way forward

    • Delhi must begin to deal with Taiwan as a weighty entity in its own right that offers so much to advance India’s prosperity.
    • Delhi does not have to discard its “One-China policy” to recognise that Taiwan is once again becoming the lightning rod in US-China tensions.

    Consider the question “India needs to explore the opportunities in relationship with Taiwan even as it pursues and sticks to its One China policy. Comment.

    Conclusion

    As Taiwan becomes the world’s most dangerous flashpoint, the geopolitical consequences for Asia are real. Although Delhi has embraced the Indo-Pacific maritime construct, it is yet to come to terms with Taiwan’s critical role in shaping the strategic future of Asia’s waters.

  • The U.S. policy options and its implications for the world order

    The article spells out the U.S.’s foreign policy approach in the changing global order. Though the article doesn’t mention India, the U.S.’s policies and it’s bearing on India need no mention. From that perspective, we should follow their approach.

    Decision on the JCPOA

    • During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Joe Biden had criticised the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
    • He had then promised that subject to Iran’s compliance with its obligations, the U.S. would re-enter the agreement.
    • In office, Mr. Biden has shown little urgency on the JCPOA matter.
    • Israel has given the opposite message and said that the nuclear agreement was “bad and must not be allowed”.
    • Israel and the U.S.’s Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have also insisted that they be involved with the discussions with Iran on the revival of the agreement.

    U.S.’s Policy approach

    •  The U.S. policy is likely to show more continuity than change where the U.S.’s core interests are concerned, specifically in its ties with Russia, China and Iran.
    •  Mr. Biden is likely to reverse his predecessor Donald Trump’s personal accommodative approach towards Russia and adopt the U.S.’s traditional confrontational posture.
    • Mr. Biden’s Iran policy is likely to match Mr. Trump’s hardline approach on substantive matters.
    • This approach also panders to Iran’s regional rivals who wish to see the Islamic republic weakened and isolated.
    • There will thus be no dramatic change in the U.S.’s approach to Iran on the nuclear question.

    Regional concerns and role of global powers

    • Despite the sanctions, Iran’s regional influence remains significant.
    • The Iranian ability to mobilise militants across the region is viewed by Israel and some the Gulf Arab states as threatening their security.
    • Gulf states are also concerned about Iran’s influence with their Shia populations.
    • The capabilities of Iran’s precision missiles and drones are also a matter of regional anxiety.
    •  Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be in a face-off with Iran and its allies, Iraq, Syria and its Shia militia.
    • Alternatively, we could see a genuine regional effort to ease tensions and promote regional confidence, spearheaded by Qatar, working with Russia and, possibly, China.
    • Perhaps, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already facing heat from the Biden administration, will see the value of this approach.
    • Russia now an influential player in the region, China, too, with its Belt and Road Initiative, has high stakes in regional stability.
    • The Sino-Iran 25 years agreement, envisages their substantial and long-term cooperation in political, security, military, economic, energy and logistical connectivity areas.

    Consider the question “How far Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been successful in achieving its goals? How peace in the Middle East influence India’s interests?” 

    Conclusion

    The new U.S. administration will thus witness a new world order, shaped by a coalition of Russia, China and Iran, in which the U.S. is no longer the most significant role-player.

  • Taking the long view with China

    The article explains the various choices India faces in the geopolitical landscape shaped by emergence of two Asian giants.

    New challenges and hard choices on geopolitical front

    • As it moves to becoming the third largest economy in the world, India needs to have a clear-eyed world view and strategy as it makes hard choices.
    • It needs to reject the developing country regional mindset that has shaped India’s  national aims and foreign policy.
    • We have a “special and privileged strategic partnership” with Russia which provides more than three-quarter of India’s military equipment and a “comprehensive global strategic partnership” with the U.S.
    • India’s relationship with the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), where the others are military allies, has rightly been cautious, as U.S. President Joe Biden sees China as a ‘strategic competitor’ rather than a ‘strategic rival’.
    • Realism dictates that India does not need to compromise on its strategic autonomy.
    • India faces two sides of the China conundrum: Defining engagement with its neighbour which is consolidating an expanding BRI while remaining involved with the strategic, security and technological concerns of the U.S.

    China’s dominance in financial sphere

    • In the financial sphere, there is the real possibility of the Chinese renminbi becoming a global reserve currency or e-yuan becoming the digital payments currency.
    • China is the world’s largest trading economy.
    • It could soon become the world’s largest economy.
    • China has stitched together an investment agreement with the EU and with most of Asia.
    • Relative attractiveness will determine when the dollar goes the way of the sterling and the guilder.
    • China, facing technological sanctions from the U.S., may well put in the hard work to make this happen soon.

    China: Partner, competitor, and economic rival

    • Some form of the EU’s China policy of seeing the emerging superpower as a partner, competitor, and economic rival depending on the policy area in question is going to be the global norm. 
    • This broad perspective is also reflected in India’s participation in both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, designed to resist the spread of Western interests, and in the U.S.-led Quad, with its anti-China stance.
    • Within the United Nations, India’s interests have greater congruence with China’s interests rather than the U.S.’s and the EU’s.
    • Sharing the COVID-19 vaccine with other countries distinguishes India, and China, from the rest.

    India’s engagement with the U.S.

    • The congruence between India and the U.S. lies in the U.S.’s declared strategic objective of promoting an integrated economic development model in the Indo-Pacific as a credible alternative to the BRI, but with a caveat.
    • Instead of an alternate development model, India should move the Quad towards supplementing the infrastructure push of the BRI in line with other strategic concerns in the region.
    • For example, developing their scientific, technological capacity and digital economy, based on India’s digital stack and financial resources of other Quad members, will resonate with Asia and Africa.

    India’s role in global governance

    • Another area where India can play a ‘bridging role’ is global governance.
    • President Xi Jinping’s “community with shared future for mankind”, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “climate justice” and asking how long India will be excluded from the UN Security Council, challenge the frame of the liberal order without providing specific alternatives.
    • With respect to digital data, India has recently expressed that there must be reciprocity in data sharing, and this is the kind of ‘big idea’ for sharing prosperity that will gain traction with other countries.

    India’s growing influence

    • India’s recent policies are gaining influence at the expense of China and the West, and both know this trend will accelerate.
    • The steps to a $5 trillion economy, shift to indigenous capital military equipment, and a new Science, Technology and Innovation Policy underline impact, capacity and interests.
    • ASEAN remains keen India re-join its trade pact to balance China.
    • It is being recognised that India’s software development prowess could shape a sustainable post-industrial state different to the U.S. and China model.

    Consider the question “Examine how India’s foreing policy priorities and its role in global governance is shaped by China’s rise.”

    Conclusion

    As in the historical past, Asia is big enough for both Asian giants to have complementary roles, share prosperity and be independent of each other and of the West.

     

  • India’s Myanmar dilemma

    The coup in Myanmar poses several challenges for India. For one, it poses a dilemma in India’s dealing with Myanmar’s military. Also, it has implications for the Rohingya issue and containing the insurgency in north-east India.

    Implications of the coup in Myanmar

    1) Political realignment and role of Aung San Suu Kyi

    • Threat of sanctions from the United States and the West in the wake of the recent coup could lead to unique political realignments in Myanmar.
    • As a result, the international community may not have any alternatives than Aung San Suu Kyi when it comes to pursuing the restoration of democracy in the country.
    • The democratic credentials of Aung San Suu Kyi, remain deeply diminished today due to her justification of the ill-treatment meted out to the Rohingya,
    • Yet the recent events have brought her right back into the centre of the international community’s political calculations in Myanmar.

    2) Implications for Rohingya issus

    • International community will have to condone the government’s past actions against the Rohingya in order to highlight Suu Kyi as an anchor of democracy in Myanmar.
    • The case against Myanmar’s conduct during her government’s tenure at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will most likely be put on the backburner.
    • Increasing global support for Ms. Suu Kyi could potentially negative consequences for the persecuted Rohingya.

    3) China factor

    • In the short run, the coup stands to hurt the interests of China, India and even the rest of the international community, all of whom were able to do business with Myanmar in their own unique ways.
    • For China, the coup has complicated its larger regional economic plans in Myanmar.
    • However, the international community’s sharp reactions will likely force the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) to turn to China.
    • International sanctions are unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s largely inward-looking junta and its Generals.
    • However, it Generals would still expect Beijing to give them
    • For China, the coup has complicated its larger regional economic plans in Myanmar.
    • On the positive side for Beijing, decisive western sanctions will force the military to get closer to China.
    • To that extent, China will be its biggest beneficiary of the February coup by default.

    India’s dilemma

    • India faces the most challenging dilemma on how to respond to the military coup in Myanmar.
    • The dual power centres of the military and the civilian government that existed in Naypyitaw until recently, suited India.
    • While India’s national interests clearly lie in dealing with whoever is in power in Myanmar, India would find it difficult to openly support the junta given the strong western and American stance.
    • On the other hand, it can ill-afford to offend the junta by actively seeking a restoration of democracy there.
    • While Ms. Suu Kyi was getting cozy with Beijing, it was the Myanmar military that had been more circumspect.

    India’s concerns

    • While a friendless Myanmar junta getting closer to China is a real worry for New Delhi, there are other concerns too.
    • For one, Myanmar’s military played a helpful role in helping India contain the north-eastern insurgencies.
    • Equally important is the issue of providing succour to the Rohingya in the wake of the military coup in Myanmar.

    Consider the question “Developments in Myanmar have several implications for the regional geopolitics. In light of this, examine the challenges India faces from the development in Myanmar.”

    Conclusion

    India is left with very few clear policy options. And yet, it must continue to maintain relations with the government in power in Myanmar while discreetly pushing for political reconciliation in the country. In the meantime, the focus must be on improving trade, connectivity, and security links between the two sides.

  • The way forward in Myanmar

    The article discusses the five lessons from past experiences as the international community frames its response to the military coup in Myanmar.

    Coup in Myanmar

    • After Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) swept the polls by winning almost 80% of the vote, Myanmar’s military staged a coup and declared a state of Emergency for a year.
    • Myanmar, which started a fragile transition to democracy 10 years ago after decades of brutal military dictatorship, is back in the hands of the Generals.

    Lessons for the international community

    1) Benefits of sanctions

    • The developments in Myanmar will invariably bring back the old debate around the prudence of sanctions.
    • Notwithstanding the western sanctions before 2010 [during military rule], China, Thailand and Singapore were the key trading partners of Myanmar.
    • The present reality is no different.
    • Singapore was reportedly the largest foreign investor in Myanmar in 2020, accounting for 34% of the overall approved investment.
    • Given that the military has been able to economically withstand sanctions by striking deals with Asian countries in the past, sanctions are unlikely to bring any major political change.

    2) Accountability for crime against humanity

    • As political changes got underway in 2010, many generals were on the radar of the international community for perpetuating a regime of human rights abuses, quietly vanished from the scene.
    • This bred a culture of impunity.
    • During the 2017 Rohingya crisis, senior military officials brazenly exploited social media to mobilise public support for brutality against Rohingyas.

    3) China’s influence

    • Three, a critical international player in Myanmar is China.
    • The international community, particularly the West, has to factor in China’s multi-layered influence on Myanmar.

    4) Revival of past international mechanisms

    • Many international mechanisms comprising Western and Asian countries that were formed to coordinate strategies on Myanmar were disbanded after the 2015 election.
    • That the changes in Myanmar were irreversible was the standard thinking.
    • Relevant actors should be brought on a common platform by reviving past mechanisms.

    5) Increasing the engagement with domestic stakeholders

    • The expectation that Myanmar will see a nationwide protest against the military after the coup should be examined with the geographical extent of Bamar, Myanmar’s largest ethnic group, who support the National League for Democracy.
    • The minorities in the country form around 35% of the population.
    • In the current scenario, the military will continue to exploit ethnic and religious fault lines.
    • Engagement with domestic stakeholders, including ethnic minorities, especially from the north, should be pursued by the international community.

    Consider the question “As military hinders Myanmar’s transition to democracy, what are the factors that should be considered by the international community as it form the response to the situation in the country.”

    Conclusion

    There is one consistent lesson, that no change is irreversible, particularly in a context where military leadership scripted the meaning of democracy, and domestic forces and geopolitics continuously fail to deter its actions and impulses to rule.

  • No to vaccine nationalism, yes to global cooperation

    India has been supplying vaccines to other countries even as its first phase of vaccination covers the health care workers. At the same time, the selfishness of the advanced countries has been on full display by amassing the approved vaccines. The article deals with the issue of vaccine nationalism.

    What is vaccine nationalism

    • When a country manages to secure doses of vaccines for its own citizens or residents and prioritises its own domestic markets before they are made available in other countries it is known as ‘vaccine nationalism’.
    • This is done through pre-purchase agreements between a government and a vaccine manufacturer.
    • The advance purchase contracts made by some advanced countries for potential vaccines would vaccinate their population many times: the European Union, two times, the United States and the United Kingdom, four times, and Canada, six times.

    Impact on the SDGs

    • The reversal of progress on many Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs, such as SDG 3 (“Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages) could affect the health of the world population, and global growth itself.
    • Even before COVID-19, projections have shown that 6% of the global population would be in extreme poverty, which has gone up by 71 million, thereby causing enormous challenges to SDG 1 (“End poverty in all its forms everywhere”).
    • According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, over 50% of emerging markets and developing economies that were converging toward advanced economies per capita income over the last decade are expected to diverge over the 2020-22 period.

    India’s important role

    • While advanced countries have turned their back on the need of poor countries, India has taken a position that a significant percentage of the approved doses will be permitted for exports.
    • While its exports to neighbouring counties will be under grant mode, initial shipment of vaccines to least developed countries will be free of cost.
    • Brazil has received 2 million doses of vaccine from India (as of January 23).
    • While India is in its first phase of vaccination to cover health-care workers, exports from India are helping other countries also in initiating phase one of their vaccination programme — a gesture well-appreciated globally.
    • The ability to produce large volumes of vaccine at an affordable cost underlines India’s importance to developing countries when it comes to drug access.

    Need for coordinated global efforts

    • Due to the vaccine nationalism, the arguments of public good and global cooperation have been widely neglected.
    • Nevertheless, India’s approach only reinforces the need of having coordinated global efforts in bringing COVID-19 under control.
    • This response manifests India’s unstinted commitment to global development and has consolidated its name as the world’s pharmacy.

    COVAX Project: Unique case of global cooperation

    • The COVAX project is a global risk-sharing mechanism for pooled procurement and fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
    • It is based on funding from high and middle-income countries.
    • Since high and middle-income countries are buying up large amounts of the vaccine directly from suppliers, the promise by COVAX to deliver 2 billion doses by the end of 2021 seems to face new challenges.
    • Since most of the vaccines are purchased from the global south [specifically, India and China] for developing nations, the COVAX project can draw new pathways for global development.
    • Most of these vaccines are cost-effective and affordable to the global south.

    Consider the question “What is vaccine nationalism? Examine the role played by India against the backdrop of vaccine nationalism.” 

    Conclusion

    The development of vaccines is a classic story of global cooperation between the North and the South. Unfortunately, the increasing nationalist tendencies of the democratic World during the pandemic have challenged the positive narrative on global cooperation.

  • Iran rules out changes to Nuclear Deal

    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ruled out changes to Iran’s nuclear accord with world powers and dismissed calls to broaden the terms of the deal and include regional countries.

    Do you know how the enmity between Iran and the US came into reality?  We hope you have watched the Argo (2012) movie for sure!

    What is the news?

    • The election of Joe Biden, who supports a US return to the agreement, has spurred some expectations of renewed diplomacy.
    • But Rouhani’s refusal puts this possibility at the end.

    The United States since 1979 has applied various economic, trades, scientific and military sanctions against Iran. U.S. economic sanctions are administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control.

    Iranian Nuclear Agreement

    • The Iran nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a landmark accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the US, in July 2015.
    • Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief.

    What were the goals of JCPOA?

    • The P5+1 wanted to unwind Iran’s nuclear program to the point that if Tehran decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year, giving world powers time to respond.
    • Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months.

    Who are the participants?

    • The JCPOA, which went into effect in January 2016, imposes restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.
    • At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1.
    • The European Union also took part.
    • Prior to the JCPOA, the P5+1 had been negotiating with Iran for years, offering its government various incentives to halt uranium enrichment.

    Disruptions after trump

    • The deal has been in jeopardy since President Donald J. Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018.
    • In response to the U.S. departure, as well as to deadly attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the United States, Iran has resumed some of its nuclear activities.

    Why isn’t the deal yet enforced?

    • In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to keep back sanctions.
    • The other P5 members objected to the move, saying the US could not unilaterally implement the mechanism because it left the nuclear deal in 2018.
    • Meanwhile, the wide range of U.S. sanctions unrelated to the nuclear program has added to the damage.

     Iran’s current nuclear activity

    • Iran since Trump’s decisions started exceeding agreed-upon limits to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium.
    • It began enriching uranium to higher concentrations (though still far short of the purity required for weapons).
    • It also began developing new centrifuges to accelerate uranium enrichment; resuming heavy water production at its Arak facility.

    Did you know?

     

    Mined uranium has less than 1 percent of the uranium-235 isotope used in fission reactions, and centrifuges increase that isotope’s concentration. Uranium enriched to 5 percent is used in nuclear power plants, and at 20 percent it can be used in research reactors or for medical purposes. High-enriched uranium, at some 90 percent, is used in nuclear weapons.

  • BNO Visas for Hong Kong residents

    Hong Kong residents can apply for a new visa offering them an opportunity to become British citizens after Beijing’s imposition of a national security law last year.

    What is the news?

    • The move comes as China and Hong Kong have said they will no longer recognise the British National Overseas (BNO) passport as a valid travel document from Sunday, January 31.
    • Britain and China have been arguing for months about what London and Washington say is an attempt to silence dissent in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protests in 2019 and 2020.

    What is the British move for citizenship?

    • The scheme, which was first announced last year, allows those with BNO status to live, study and work in Britain for five years and eventually apply for citizenship.
    • BNO is a special status created under British law in 1987that specifically relates to Hong Kong.
    • Britain says it is fulfilling a historic and moral commitment to Hong Kong people after Beijing imposed the security law on the semi-autonomous city.
    • Britain says breaches the terms of agreements under which the colony was handed back to China in 1997.
    • The U.K. government forecasts the new visa could attract more than 300,000 people and their dependants to Britain.

    Chinese stance on the move

    • China says the West’s views on its actions over Hong Kong are clouded by misinformation and an imperial handover.
    • Beijing also said that it would no longer be recognising BN(O) passports, saying that the citizenship offer “seriously infringed” on China’s sovereignty.
    • It is unclear, however, how this could deter Hong Kongers from leaving since city residents are usually known to use Hong Kong passports while leaving for another country.

  • Myanmar’s Military Coup

    Myanmar’s military staged a coup detaining de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and declaring it had taken control of the country for one year under a state of emergency.

    Q.Despite its military coup, Myanmar is the key in linking South Asia to Southeast Asia and the eastern periphery becomes the focal point for New Delhi’s regional outreach. Analyse.

    What is the news?

    • The intervention came with rising tensions between the military, which ruled the country for nearly five decades, and the civilian government over allegations of fraud in November’s elections.
    • The military had signaled its intentions to seize power to settle its claims of irregularities in the polls, which Suu Kyi’s party won easily.

    How was the coup carried out?

    • The military detained the leaders of the governing NLD party and Myanmar’s civilian leadership, including Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, along with various ministers and even the opposition.
    • The military quickly seized control of the country’s infrastructure, suspending most television broadcasts and canceling all domestic and international flights, according to reports.
    • Telephone and internet access was suspended in major cities.
    • The stock market and commercial banks were closed, and long lines were seen outside ATMs in some places.
    • In Yangon, the country’s largest city and former capital, residents ran to markets to stock up on food and other supplies.

    Who is Aung San Suu Kyi?

    • Suu Kyi came to power as state councilor in 2016 after the country’s first fully democratic vote in decades.
    • Her ascension to leadership was seen as a critical moment in the transition of Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, to democracy from military dictatorship.
    • Suu Kyi, the daughter of the country’s independence hero General Aung San, spent more than 15 years under house arrest.
    • Her time in detention made her an international icon, and she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
    • Since her release, her reputation has been tarnished by her cooperation with the military and her deadly campaign against the Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority group.

    India’s response to the takeover

    • India is “deeply concerned” with the return to military rule, which is a repeat of events thirty years ago.
    • It sees only option to engage, building on its outreach in recent years via the security and defence establishment.
    • India seeks a more pragmatic approach, engaging the military while pushing for more freedoms and democracy in Myanmar.

    Various issues concerning India

    • One important reason for the change is that India’s security relationship with the Myanmar military.
    • These days, it has become extremely close, and it would be difficult to “burn bridges” with them given their assistance in securing the North East frontiers from insurgent groups.
    • Apart from strategic concerns, India has cultivated several infrastructure and development projects with Myanmar, which it sees as the “gateway to the East” and ASEAN countries.
    • These include the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport network, as well as a plan for a Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe deep-water port.

  • US-Russia to extend New START Treaty

    The Russian lower house of Parliament, the Duma has ratified a new START nuclear treaty with the US.  Both countries had “agreed in principle” to extend the arms treaty by five years with Joe Biden swearing-in.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    A reset to Trumps policies

    • In February 2020, the US withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), accusing Moscow of violating the agreement.
    • Russian then had proposed a one-year extension without conditions of the last major nuclear arms reduction accord, the New START Treaty between Russia and the U.S.
    • If it had fallen, it could have been the second nuclear weapons treaty to collapse under the leadership of Trump.