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Type: Op-ed

  • India needs a coordinated approach for decarbonisation of economy

    Context

    The announcement of enhanced targets for climate action by India, particularly for achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, has highlighted the importance of long-term planning for decarbonising the economy.

    Why do we need a decarbonizing strategy

    • The Government of India has responded to rapid reductions in the cost of renewable energy (RE) based power, with dramatic enhancements in the targets for RE.
    • With this approach, India has done well and is on a path to fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitments for 2030.
    • However, the road ahead will be challenging, and therefore, a coordinated strategy for decarbonising the economy efficiently and effectively will be required.

    Strategy for decarbonising the economy

    • Factoring in the changes: By 2070, there will be many changes in technology, environmental conditions, and the economy.
    • The planning horizon of about 50 years will need to be broken up into shorter periods so that new knowledge about emerging technologies can be incorporated into plans.
    • Monitoring of the progress: Plans will need to be monitored so that the course can be corrected to respond to any unforeseen problems.
    • Five years, as the UK has used, seems like a reasonable “Goldilocks ideal.”
    • An autonomous and technically credible agency, like the Climate Change Committee (CCC) in the UK, should be set up.

    Decarbonising the power sector

    • Biggest source of GHG: The power sector is the biggest source of GHG emissions and also the easiest one to decarbonise.
    • Reducing emission intensity is a good overarching objective; increased use of RE or non-fossil-fuel generation is a means to that end.
    • The four 2030 targets: Non-fossil fuel generating capacity to be 500 GW, RE capacity to be 50 per cent of all generation capacity, reduction in emission intensity by 45 per cent, and avoidance of GHG emissions by 1 billion tonnes — are inter-related.

    Suggestions to decarbonise the power sector

    • Set emission intensity targets: Setting permissible emission intensity in terms of grammes of carbon dioxide equivalent per kWh of electricity sold, would be a good option for targets in the power sector.
    • Single emission-related objective: In order to decarbonise the power sector, it would be best to have a single emissions-related objective so that an optimal strategy can be developed to achieve the objective at the lowest cost.
    • Avoid separate targets: Currently there is a profusion of separate targets for almost every resource used to generate electricity.
    • For example, there are separate renewable purchase obligations (RPOs) for solar, non-solar RE, and hydropower.
    • Such an approach reduces the flexibility of distribution companies to select resources to meet their loads, resulting in a non-optimal resource mix, and a higher cost of electricity.
    • Reconsider RPO: RPOs are usually imposed to support nascent technologies, and because RE is now competitive on costs with conventional generation, the need for RPOs should be reconsidered.
    • The use of emission intensity targets is a better approach.

    Consider the question “Why power sector holds the key to decarbonising the Indian economy? Suggest the strategy India should follow to decarbonise the power sector.”

    Conclusion

    The use of five-year interim targets for permissible emission intensity and the establishment of an autonomous and credible agency to advise the government on targets and policies and to monitor progress will greatly facilitate an effective, economic, and smooth transition to decarbonisation of the power sector first, and the Indian economy later by 2070.

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  • The EU’s role in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    Speedy development of the Quad comprising Australia, Japan, India and the U.S.; the emergence of AUKUS comprising Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.; and other alignments raise the question: where does Europe stand in relation to this churning?

    Significance of EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • Europe’s Asia connect is old, strong and multi-layered.
    • Since 2018, countries such as France, the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. announced their specific policies towards the Indo-Pacific.
    • The announcement by the Council of the European Union of its initial policy conclusions in April, followed by the unveiling of the EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific on September 16, are notable.
    • Focus on security and development: The policy document also says cooperation will be strengthened in sustainable and inclusive prosperity, green transition, ocean governance, digital governance and partnerships, connectivity, security and defence, and human security.

    Way forward for EU

    • Support France: The EU’s security and defence capabilities are quite limited, as compared to the U.S. and China.
    • To obviate an imbalance in favour of economic links, EU will need to give adequate space and support to France which has sizeable assets and linkages with the Indo-Pacific.
    • Coordination with UK: EU also must forge strategic coordination with the U.K. as the latter prepares to expand its role in Asia as part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy.
    • Leverage economic power: As a major economic power, the EU has an excellent chance of success in its trade negotiations with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand; economic partnership agreement with the East African Community; and in forging fisheries agreements and green alliances.
    • To achieve all this and more, EU must increase its readiness to share its financial resources and new technologies with partners.
    • Internally coordinated approach:Many states view China as a great economic opportunity, but others are acutely conscious of the full contours of the China challenge.
    • Russia next door is the more traditional threat. It is increasingly on China’s side.
    • Hence, the EU should find it easy to cooperate with the Quad.
    • AUKUS, endeavours by a part of the western alliance to bolster naval and technological facilities to deal with China should be welcome.

    Way forward for India

    • India’s pivotal position in the region necessitates a closer India-EU partnership.
    • Early conclusion of an ambitious and comprehensive trade agreement and a standalone investment protection agreement will be major steps.
    • Cooperation in Industry 4.0 technologies is desirable.
    • Consolidating and upgrading defence ties with France, Germany and the U.K. should also remain a significant priority.

    Conclusion

    The EU can create a vantage position for itself in the Indo-Pacific by being more candid with itself, more assertive with China, and more cooperative with India.

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  • What the rise of pan-Turkism means for India

    Context

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been playing internationalist card for national benefit. India, which has been worried about Erdogan’s Islamist politics, must now begin to pay attention to another political idea from the Turkish president — promoting pan-Turkism.

    Impact of political ideas on global politics

    • Internationalism based on religion, region or secular ideologies has always run headlong into resistance from sectarianism and nationalism.
    • Yet, these ideas have a profound impact on global politics.
    • Calls for regionalism and internationalism as well as religious and ethnic solidarity often end up as instruments for the pursuit of national interest.

    The rise of pan-Turkism

    • Foundation of OTS: The international symbol of solidarity among peoples of Turkic ethnicity has been the Council of Turkic States, formed in 2009 by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
    •  At a summit of the Council’s leaders last week in Istanbul, it was announced that the forum has been elevated to an “Organisation of Turkic States”.
    • Hungary, which has a long history of association with Turkic people, and Turkmenistan have observer status.
    •  At least a dozen other countries have apparently shown interest in getting observer status.
    • Implications: There is no escaping the fact that Turkey is determined to rewrite the geopolitics of Eurasia.
    • The rise of pan-Turkism is bound to have important consequences for Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Central Asia and, more broadly, India’s Eurasian neighbourhood.

    Rise of Turkey in Central Asia

    • Soft power initiatives: Over the last three decades, a number of soft power initiatives — in education, culture, and religion — have raised Turkey’s profile in Central Asia and generated new bonds with the region’s elites.
    • Military power: It is in the domains of hard power — commercial and military — that Turkey’s progress has been impressive.
    • Turkey has stunned much of the world with its military power projection into the region.
    • That Kazakhstan, a member of the Russia-led regional security bloc, is moving towards strategic cooperation with Turkey, a member of US-led NATO, points to the thickening pan-Turkic bonds in a rapidly changing regional order.
    • The dominance of economy and trade: Nearly 5,000 Turkish companies work in Central Asia. Turkish annual trade with the region is around $10 billion.
    • This could change as Turkey strengthens connectivity with Central Asia through the Caucasus.
    • For the Central Asian states, living under the shadow of Chinese economic power and Russian military power, Turkey offers a chance for economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy.
    • Connectivity: Turkey has also made impressive progress in building transportation corridors to Central Asia and beyond, to China, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
    • The so-called Lapis Lazuli Corridor now connects Turkey to Afghanistan via Turkmenistan.

    What should be India’s approach towards Turkey?

    • Pan-Turkism is a good reason for India to explore a more purposeful engagement with Turkey.
    • Issues: There is no denying that the current differences between Delhi and Ankara over Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan are real and serious.
    • Need for dialogue: The current political divergence only reinforces the case for a sustained dialogue between the two governments and the strategic communities of the two countries.
    • Lessons for India: Turkey’s own geopolitics offers valuable lessons on how to deal with Ankara.
    • That Turkey is a NATO member has not stopped Erdogan from a strategic liaison with Russian.
    • Purchase of advanced weapons like S-400 missiles from Moscow  does not stop Erdogan from meddling in Russia’s Central Asian backyard.
    • Criticism of China’s repression of Turkic Uighurs in Xinjiang — that was once called “Eastern Turkestan” — goes hand-in-hand with deep economic collaboration with Beijing.
    • What does this policy tell India? One, Erdogan’s enduring enthusiasm for Pakistan does not preclude Turkey from doing business — economic and strategic — with India.
    • Limiting Turkish hegemony: Erdogan’s ambitions have offended many countries in Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus.
    • Many of them are eager to expand strategic cooperation with India in limiting Turkish hegemony.
    • This opens a range of new opportunities for Indian foreign and security policy in Eurasia.
    • Imperative to engage: Sceptics will point to the fact that Erdogan’s time is running out.
    • That does not, however, alter the Indian imperative to engage with Turkey.

    Consider the question “Turkey’s influence in Eurasian region is expanding. In this context examine the issues that adds friction between India and Turkey and suggest the approach India should adopt in dealing with Turkey.”

    Conclusion

    Independent India has struggled to develop good relations with Turkey over the decades. A hard-headed approach in Delhi today, however, might open new possibilities with Ankara and in Turkey’s Eurasian periphery.

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  • Central bank digital currency (CBDC)

    Context

    Recently, Nigeria joined the Bahamas and five islands in the East Caribbean as the only economies to have introduced central bank digital currency (CBDC). This is a shortlist, but one that is likely to be supplemented.

    Benefits of CBDC

    • Desire to make domestic payments systems and cross-border remittances cheaper, faster and more efficient, and deepen financial inclusion, represent key areas of priority for most other emerging market and development economies (EMDEs).
    • Between 2019 and 2021, the last three surveys conducted by the Bank for International Settlements showed that the primary drivers for central banks of EMDEs to study CBDCs were domestic payments efficiency, financial inclusion and payments safety.

    Design features of CBDCs

    • In theory, the potential of CBDCs are only limited by their design and the capabilities of the central bank issuing it, but their appropriateness and form also depend on the state of the domestic banking and payments industry.
    • Ultimately, CBDCs must be seen as a means to an end.
    • A particular CBDC could, for example, be account-based or tokenised, may be distributed directly by the central bank or through intermediaries, may be interest-bearing (even the possibility of a negative interest has been considered), may be programmable, may offer limited pseudonymity to its holders (similar to, but not to the extent of, cash) and so on.
    • Whether it may be one or the other depends on what its country requires it to be.

    Challenges

    • An economy that adopts an interest-bearing CBDC could make the interest rate on CBDCs the main tool of monetary policy transmission domestically (assuming a high degree of substitution of fiat and fiat-like currency).
    • On the other hand, as former RBI Governor D Subbarao recently warned, rendering an Indian CBDC as an interest-bearing instrument could pose an existential threat to the banking system by eroding its critical role as intermediaries in the economy.
    • If CBDCs compete with bank deposits and facilitate a reduction of bank-held deposits, banks stand to lose out on an important and stable source of funding.
    • Banks may respond by increasing deposit rates, but this would necessitate a higher lending rate to preserve margins, and dampen lending activities.
    • The resultant shrinking of balance sheets will lead to a more pronounced disintermediation role for financial institutions, which could have long-term effects on financial stability, and facilitate easier bank runs.
    • The introduction of CBDCs would require central banks to maintain much larger balance sheets, even in non-crisis times.
    • They would need to replace the lost funding (because of migration of deposits) by lending potentially huge sums to financial institutions, while purchasing correspondingly huge amounts of government and possibly private securities.
    • CBDCs could also have implications for the state from seigniorage as the cost of printing, storing, transporting and distributing currency can be reduced.

    Conclusion

    Recent comments by RBI officials have focussed on the desirability of introducing CBDCs. But the path to a “Digital Rupee” is not clear.

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  • Creating safe digital spaces

    Context

    Various reports have indicated increased incidence of cyberbullying and online child sexual exploitation by adults.

    Tackling cyberbullying

    • School closures as a response to the COVID-19 lockdowns have led to an unprecedented rise in unsupervised screen time for children and young people, which in turn exposed them to a greater risk of online violence.
    • In India, an estimated 71 million children aged 5-11 years access the Internet on the devices of their family members, constituting about 14% of the country’s active Internet user base of over 500 million
    • There is growing scientific evidence which suggests that cyberbullying has negative consequences on the education, health and well-being of children and young people.
    • Published in 2019 and drawing on data from 144 countries, UNESCO’s report ‘Behind the numbers: Ending school violence and bullying’ highlighted the extent of the problem, with almost one in three students worldwide reporting being bullied at least once in the preceding month.
    • Therefore, cyberbullying prevention interventions should aim at tackling all types of bullying and victimisation experiences at the same time, as opposed to each in silo.

    Cyberbullying prevention interventions

    • Although online violence is not limited to school premises, the education system plays a crucial role in addressing online safety.
    • To prevent and counter cyberbullying, the information booklet brought out by UNESCO in partnership with NCERT on Safe Online Learning in Times of COVID-19 can be a useful reference.
    • Effective interventions also require gender-sensitive and targeted approaches that respond to needs of learners who are most likely to be the victims of online violence.
    • Concerted efforts must be made to provide children and young people with the knowledge and skills to identify online violence so that they can protect themselves from its different forms, whether perpetrated by peers or adults.
    • Teachers also play a critical role by teaching students about online safety, and thus supporting parental involvement.

    Conclusion

    It is imperative that digital and social media platforms are free of cyberbullying, if learners have to access quality education. More importantly, confidential reporting and redress services must be established.

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  • Why Glasgow Climate Pact disappoints

    Context

    The Glasgow Climate Pact was adopted on Saturday and, as was to be expected, it is a mixed bag of modest achievements and disappointed expectations.

    Transition away from fossil fuel

    • The Pact is the first clear recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels, though the focus was on giving up coal-based power altogether.
    • India introduced an amendment at the last moment to replace this phrase with “phase down” and this played negatively with both the advanced as well as a large constituency of developing countries.
    • This amendment reportedly came as a result of consultations among India, China, the UK and the US.
    • As the largest producer and consumer of coal and coal-based thermal power, it is understandable that China would prefer a gradual reduction rather than total elimination.
    • India may have had similar concerns.

    Recognition of Adaptation

    • There is a welcome recognition of the importance of Adaptation and there is a commitment to double the current finance available for this to developing countries.
    • Since this amount is currently only $15 billion, doubling will mean $ 30 billion.
    • This remains grossly inadequate.
    • According to UNEP, adaptation costs for developing countries are currently estimated at $70 billion annually and will rise to an estimated $130-300 billion annually by 2030.
    • A start is being made in formulating an adaptation plan and this puts the issue firmly on the Climate agenda, balancing the overwhelming focus hitherto on mitigation.

    Disappointment on the issue of finance

    • The Paris Agreement target of $100 billion per annum between 2005-2020 was never met with the shortfall being more than half, according to some calculations.
    • There is now a renewed commitment to delivering on this pledge in the 2020-2025 period and there is a promise of an enhanced flow thereafter.
    • But in a post-pandemic global economic slowdown, it is unlikely these promises will be met.
    • In any event, it is unlikely that India will get even a small slice of the pie.
    • The same applies to the issue of compensation for loss and damage for developing countries who have suffered as a result of climate change for which they have not been responsible.

    Initiatives on methane and deforestation

    • Two important plurilateral outcomes could potentially develop into more substantial measures.
    • The most important is an agreement among 100 countries to cut methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.
    • India is not a part of this group.
    • Cutting methane emissions, which is generated mainly by livestock, is certainly useful but there is a much bigger methane emergency around the corner as the earth’s permafrost areas in Siberia, Greenland and the Arctic littoral begin to melt due to global warming that has already taken place and will continue to take place in the coming years.
    • Another group of 100 countries has agreed to begin to reverse deforestation by 2030.
    • India did not join the group due to concerns over a clause on possible trade measures related to forest products.

    Implications of US-China Joint Declaration on Climate Change for India

    • Declaration was a departure for China, which had held that bilateral cooperation on climate change could not be insulated from other aspects of their relations.
    • The declaration implies a shift in China’s hardline position.
    • It appears both countries are moving towards a less confrontational, more cooperative relationship overall.
    • This will have geopolitical implications, including for India, which may find its room for manoeuvre shrinking.

    Conclusion

    As in the past, the can has been kicked down the road, except that the climate road is fast approaching a dead-end. What provides a glimmer of light is the incredible and passionate advocacy of urgent action by young people across the world. This is putting enormous pressure on governments and leaders and if sustained, may become irresistible.

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  • NAM at 60 marks an age of Indian alignment

    Context

    The birth anniversary of Jawaharlal Nehru this month and the 60th anniversary of the Non-Aligned Movement prompt reflection on Nehru’s major contribution to the field of international relations.

    Background of NAM

    • In 1946, six days after Nehru formed the national government, he stated, “we propose… to keep away from the power politics of groups aligned against one another… it is for One World that free India will work.”
    •  Nehru was opposed to the conformity required by both sides in the Cold War, and his opposition to alliances was justified by American weapons to Pakistan from 1954 and the creation of western-led military blocs in Asia.
    •  Non-alignment was the least costly policy for promoting India’s diplomatic presence, a sensible approach when India was weak and looked at askance by both blocs, and the best means of securing economic assistance from abroad.
    • India played a lone hand against colonialism and racism until many African states achieved independence after 1960.
    • India played a surprisingly prominent role as facilitator at the 1954 Geneva Peace Conference on Indochina, whereafter non-alignment appeared to have come of age.
    •  Indian equidistance to both Koreas and both Vietnams was shown by India recognising neither; yet it recognised one party in the two Chinas and two Germanies.
    • The Treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation between India and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics of 1971, fashioned with the liberation war of Bangladesh in view, come dangerously close to a military alliance.

    Failures of NAM

    • Only two members of Summit Conference of the Non-Aligned Movement, Cyprus and Ethiopia, supported India in the war with China.
    • Among the Non-Aligned Movement’s members was a plenitude of varying alignments, a weakness aggravated by not internalising their own precepts of human rights and peaceful settlement of disputes on the grounds of not violating the sacred principle of sovereign domestic jurisdiction.
    • Other failures were lack of collective action and collective self-reliance, and the non-establishment of an equitable international economic or information order.
    • The Movement could not dent, let alone break, the prevailing world order.

    Conclusion

    In essence, Indian non-alignment’s ideological moorings began, lived and died along with Nehru’s idealism, though some features that characterised his foreign policy were retained to sustain diplomatic flexibility and promote India while its economic situation improved sufficiently to be described as an ‘emerging’ power.

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  • Dalit capitalism and Dalit entrepreneurship

    Context

    In a departure from the fixation on traditional parameters for the study of Dalit rights and empowerment, there is now a focus on how market forces can be expanded to address social exclusion.

    How Dalit entrepreneurship can help in Dalit entrepreneurship

    • While entrepreneurship alone isn’t the panacea to caste-based exclusion or marginalisation, Dalit entrepreneurship is the new narrative changing the discourse of Dalit empowerment.
    • Entrepreneurship can shape access to rights and push against entrenched social hierarchies.
    • The circulation of material benefits and the relative autonomy that comes with entrepreneurship are added advantages.
    • As per the reports by the MSME ministry, Dalit-owned ventures are still minimal in terms of numbers as well as revenue.
    • To overcome hindrances to the establishment of networks across various social groups, Dalit entrepreneurs take recourse to their internal ties and use them to sustain their economic gains.
    • It is increasingly becoming clear that supporting Dalits entrepreneurs is integral to the nation’s inclusive development and this is why institutional aid is required in this regard.

    Steps taken so far

    • The District Industries Centre (DIC) stipulates that to nurture entrepreneurs, the government must increase the share of goods produced by Dalits in its procurement.
    • State financial corporations have also been instructed to increase financial support to Scheduled Caste entrepreneurs.
    • The Andhra Pradesh Industrial Infrastructure Corporation has allocated 16.2 per cent of plots to SC entrepreneurs, while the Small Industries Development Bank of India offers an additional subsidy to them.
    • One of the focussed financial interventions for SC/ST entrepreneurs is the Stand Up India initiative, guaranteeing credit up to Rs 1 crore.

    Challenges

    • Stand Up India initiative failed to deliver the expected results due to the unavailability of so-called eligible SC/ST entrepreneurship, with most of the fund lying unutilised.
    • This was primarily due to the apathy of loaning branches and officials towards proposals by Dalit entrepreneurs.
    • It is evident that despite the existence of government schemes and policies to support such initiatives, the actual benefit could never reach the beneficiaries due to the artificial inaccessibility created by inherent social and caste biases.

    Way forward

    • There is a need for Dalit-focussed alternate investment finance (AIF) and private equity (PE) funds to create a vibrant and inclusive MSME ecosystem.
    • It is evident that despite the existence of government schemes and policies to support such initiatives, the actual benefit could never reach the beneficiaries due to the artificial inaccessibility created by inherent social and caste biases.
    • There is a need to formulate multiple credit guarantee trusts by raising contributions from MNCs, FDIs, portfolio investors, corporates, etc.
    • A social vulnerability index also needs to be introduced, addressed and assessed.

    Conclusion

    Dalit entrepreneurship today holds the promise of an exciting and uncharted future for social transformation.

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  • UAPA enacts process as punishment

    Context

    Application of the UAPA in certain cases has caused concerns regarding its alleged “misuse”, and the rational answer would be to find ways to check “misuse”.

    Issues with UAPA

    • The police often use Section 13 in conjunction with other sections of the law.
    • Vague and undefined terms: Besides the usual inventory of well-defined verbs in S.13(1), such as “commits”, “advocates”, “abets”, “advises”, “incites” or “takes part”, there is S.13(2) which reads: “Whoever, in any way, assists any unlawful activity of any association declared unlawful… shall be punished.”
    • What does “in any way” mean? S.2(o), which defines “unlawful activity” does so in even more vague terms, as anything done by a person, whether as an act, or words, verbally, through signs or otherwise.
    • What does “otherwise” mean? Likewise, S.39 criminalises support to a terrorist organisation, where “support” is not even defined!
    • Wide and arbitrary powers: The semantic slippages are politically convenient as the UAPA vests extremely wide and arbitrary powers in the government to label something an “unlawful activity”.
    •  The political “use” of UAPA is scripted into the law itself, and the question of “misuse” does not arise.
    • Application of UAPA triggers a host of draconian procedures effectively barring bail, reversing burden of proof.

    Conclusion

    The conviction rate of 2.2 per cent testifies to how the UAPA enacts the process as punishment. It is time for political parties to eschew their blinkered approach and make an effort to repeal this unlawful law.

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  • Recurring urban floods point to need for moving away from land-centric urbanism

    Context

    Flood in Chennai has revived memories of the devastating Chennai floods of 2015, a collective trauma that its residents are yet to outlive.

    Role of climate change

    • In August this year, as monsoon floods raged across the subcontinent, IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6) was published.
    • The report noted the increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events since the 1950s and inferred that they were being driven by human-induced climate change.
    • The climate crisis, is here.
    • It has made extreme rainfall events more severe and unpredictable than ever before.

    Role of poor planning and encroachment

    • In 2015, the National Green Tribunal in India formed a committee to report on the status of natural stormwater drains in Delhi.
    • On inspection, out of the 201 “drains” recorded in 1976, 44 were found to be “missing.
    • Geospatial imaging established that 376 km of natural storm drains — encroached on and paved over — had disappeared from Bengaluru.
    • In both cases, these “missing” waterways were either encroached and built over or connected to sewage drains.
    • Poor design and corruption significantly contribute to urban floods.
    • By violating environmental laws and municipal bye-laws, open spaces, wetlands and floodplains have been mercilessly built over, making cities impermeable and hostile to rainwater.

    Way forward

    • We need to move away from land-centric urbanisation and recognise cities as waterscapes.
    • We need to let urban rivers breathe by returning them to their floodplains.
    • The entire urban watershed needs to heal, and for that to happen, we need less concrete and more democracy and science at the grassroots.

    Conclusion

    Ever since concretisation became shorthand for urbanisation, rainfall in a changing climate no longer finds its way towards subterranean capillaries or surface water bodies.

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