Mentor’s Comment

The article examines the structural transformation of the international system from post-Cold War unipolarity to an emerging multipolar order with distinctly bipolar characteristics. It situates recent U.S. strategic decisions, China’s economic-military rise, and Russia’s revisionist behaviour within a larger reordering of global power, making it directly relevant for GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Security).

Introduction

The contemporary global order is undergoing a structural transition. While the United States remains the world’s most powerful military and economic actor, it no longer enjoys uncontested dominance. China’s rapid rise and Russia’s revisionist assertiveness have ended unipolarity, giving rise to a multipolar world that increasingly exhibits bipolar dynamics centred on U.S.-China rivalry, with Russia acting as a swing power.

Why in the News

The issue has gained renewed salience following the United States’ largest troop mobilisation in the Caribbean in decades and the release of its 2025 National Security Strategy, which reasserts hemispheric primacy while signalling retrenchment from European security. This marks a sharp departure from the post-Second World War U.S. role as Europe’s primary security guarantor and highlights the limits of the U.S.-led rules-based order amid rising Chinese power and Russia’s continued defiance despite sanctions.

Is the unipolar moment definitively over?

1. End of Unipolarity: Confirms the erosion of post-1991 U.S. dominance as China and Russia acquire the capacity to shape geopolitical outcomes independently.
2. Structural Shift: Demonstrates transition from a single-centre system to dispersed authority across multiple power centres.
3. Empirical Trigger: Russia’s annexation of Crimea (2014) and sustained resistance to Western sanctions expose limits of the rules-based order.

Does American dominance still persist despite decline?

1. Military Primacy: Retains unmatched global force projection and alliance networks.
2. Economic Weight: Continues as the world’s most powerful economy despite relative decline.
3. Strategic Constraint: Loses ability to unilaterally determine geopolitical outcomes, particularly in Eurasia.

Why is China the principal systemic challenger?

1. Economic Scale: Accounts for ~66% of U.S. GDP, up from 57% Soviet GDP at the Cold War peak.
2. Growth Trajectory: Continues faster economic expansion, steadily narrowing the power gap.
3. Military Conversion: Translates economic power into naval dominance, operating the world’s largest navy by ship count.
4. Regional Ambition: Seeks hegemony in East and Southeast Asia as a pathway to long-term superpower status.

What role does Russia play in the emerging order?

1. Relative Weakness: Possesses smaller economy and shrinking sphere of influence.
2. Strategic Assets: Retains nuclear arsenal, geographic depth, and energy resources.
3. Revisionist Behaviour: Uses force to reassert primacy in its near abroad, including Georgia (2008) and Ukraine.
4. Swing Power Role: Operates between the U.S. and China, giving the multipolar system a bipolar character.

Why is multipolarity still incomplete?

1. Absence of Blocs: Lacks Cold War-style ideological and economic blocs.
2. Alliance Uncertainty: Shows strain within U.S. alliances and distrust within Russia-China partnership.
3. Hedging by Middle Powers: Japan, Germany, India, and Brazil avoid firm alignment amid uncertainty.

How does U.S. strategy reflect this transition?

1. Regional Retrenchment: Reduces commitment to European security burden-sharing.
2. Sphere Reassertion: Reinvokes Monroe Doctrine logic in Latin America and the Caribbean.
3. China Focus: Prepares for prolonged strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Does the emerging order resemble the Cold War?

1. Partial Bipolarity: Displays U.S.-China central rivalry rather than rigid blocs.
2. Multipolar Complexity: Allows autonomous manoeuvring by middle and regional powers.
3. Systemic Instability: Remains fluid, unsettled, and structurally incomplete.

Conclusion

The contemporary international system no longer reflects a stable unipolar or fully formed multipolar order. It is shaped by enduring U.S. primacy, China’s rapid economic-military rise, and Russia’s disruptive revisionism, producing a multipolar structure with bipolar characteristics. In this fluid and unsettled environment, power politics, spheres of influence, and strategic hedging dominate state behaviour, while the absence of clear blocs or settled norms makes the emerging global order inherently unstable and transitional.

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