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Context

The Prime Minister of Nepal made his first bilateral visit abroad to India since taking his oath in July 2021. The visit was a success in terms of launching connectivity projects and signing Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). Bilateral dialogues, strengthened economic connections and more sensitization towards the people of Nepal is what India needs to pursue to fulfil the objectives of its ‘neighborhood first policy’.

Historical Background

• Ancient ties: The relationship between India and Nepal goes back to the times of the rule of the Sakya clan and Gautama Buddha.
  • Initially, Nepal was under tribal rule and only with the coming of Licchavi rule in Nepal did its feudal era truly begin.
• Cultural relations: From 750 to 1750 AD period saw a shift from Buddhism to Hinduism in Nepal and witnessed widespread cultural diffusion.
  • India and Nepal share similar ties in terms of Hinduism and Buddhism with Buddha’s birthplace Lumbini located in present-day Nepal.
• India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 forms the bedrock of the special relations that exist between India and Nepal.
• Nepal is an important neighbor of India and occupies a special significance in its foreign policy because of the geographic, historical, cultural and economic linkages/ties that span centuries.
• In recent years, India’s relations with Nepal have witnessed some ‘lows’. 
  • The relationship between the two took a nosedive in 2015, with India first getting blamed for interfering in the Constitution drafting process and then for an “unofficial blockade” that generated widespread resentment against India.

Highlights of the recent visit

• Important Projects in discussion:
  • The operationalization of the 35 kilometre cross-border rail link from Jayanagar (Bihar) to Kurtha (Nepal) will be further extended to Bijalpura and Bardibas.
  • The 90 km long 132 kV double circuit transmission line connecting Tila (Solukhumbu) to Mirchaiya (Siraha) is close to the Indian border.
• Agreements signed:
  • Agreements providing technical cooperation in the railway sector, 
  • Nepal’s induction into the International Solar Alliance,  becoming the 105th country to become a signatory to the Framework Agreement of the ISA.
  • Between Indian Oil Corporation and Nepal Oil Corporation ensuring regular supplies of petroleum products were also signed.
• India called for taking full advantage of opportunities in the power sector, including through joint development of power generation projects in Nepal and the development of cross-border transmission infrastructure.
• Launch of Indian RuPay card in Nepal: This would open new vistas for cooperation in financial connectivity, and is expected to facilitate bilateral tourist flows as well as further strengthen people-to-people linkages between India and Nepal.

Various facets of India-Nepal ties

1. Cultural ties

• While enjoying their own peculiarities, both India and Nepal share a common culture and ways of life.
• Religion is perhaps the most important factor and plays a predominant role in shaping the cultural relations between these two countries, marked by a cross country pilgrimage on Char Dham Yatra, Pashupatinath Temple and some Buddhist sites.
• A considerable section of Nepalese comprises of Madhesi population which has familial & ethnic ties with states of Bihar, UP.

2. Strategic ties

• Nepal is a buffer state between India and China.
• Several Nepali Citizens are also deployed in Indian defence forces as well.

3. Political ties

• Constitutional turmoil is not new in Nepal. India has played a vital role in the democratic transition in Nepal against the monarch King Gyanendra.
• Nepali Congress (NC) is one of the country’s oldest parties which supports relations with India, but the communist parties show a tilt towards China.

4. Economic ties

• Nepal is an important export market for India. India is Nepal’s largest trading partner.
• Himalayan rivers flowing through Nepal can be used for Hydroelectric power projects which will benefit border states of UP, Bihar and other adjacent areas.
• There are three major water deals between Nepal and India, namely the Kosi Agreement, the Gandak Treaty and the Mahakali Treaty. India also exports Power to Nepal.
• Also, Nepal is the largest borrower of Indian Currency in South Asia.
• Nepal has escalating trade deficit with India. Nepal and India have concluded bilateral Treaty of Transit, Treaty of Trade and the Agreement of Cooperation to Control Unauthorized Trade.

5. Connectivity

• The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship was sought by the Nepali authorities in 1949 to provide for an open border and for Nepali nationals to have the right to work in India.
• The BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) in which Nepal is a partner will permit the member states to ply their vehicles in each other’s territory for transportation of cargo and passengers.

6. Multilateral and Regional Fora

• Both Nepal and India work in tandem in the United Nations, Non-aligned Movement and other international fora on most of the important international issues.
• Both the countries have been deeply engaged in the regional and sub-regional frameworks of SAARC, BIMSTEC and BBIN for enhancing cooperation for greater economic integration.

China’s role in Nepal – a matter of concern

• Once considered a buffer state between India and China, Nepal is now showing an inclination towards Beijing. China is trying to stimulate and tempt Nepal with multiple aids, economic growth and acquisition.
• China is pursuing a more assertive foreign policy and considers Nepal as an important element in its growing South Asian footprint and being a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• In 2016, Nepal negotiated an Agreement on Transit Transportation with China and in 2017, China provided a military grant of $32 million to Nepal.
• In 2019, a Protocol was concluded with China providing access to four seaports and three land ports to Nepal. China is also engaged with airport expansion projects at Pokhara and Lumbini.
• China has overtaken India as the largest source of foreign direct investment with the annual development assistance being worth $120 million.
• Recently, the ratification of the Pancheshwar Multipurpose project saw street protests and big-time social media campaigns supported by China.

Indo-Nepal Border Disputes

India and Nepal share about an 1800 Km long border. There are 2 major border or territorial disputes:

1) Kalapani

• The Kali River in the Kalapani region demarcates the border between India and Nepal.
• The Treaty of Sugauli signed by the Kingdom of Nepal and British India (after the Anglo-Nepalese War) in 1816 located the Kali River as Nepal’s western boundary with India.
• The discrepancy in locating the source of the Kali River led to boundary disputes between India and Nepal, with each country producing maps supporting their own claims.
• However, India has control of Kalapani since the 1962 Indo-Sina War.
  • Kalapani is a valley that is administered by India as a part of the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand. It is situated on the Kailash Mansarovar route.

Why is Lipulekh important for India?

• For India, the Lipulekh pass has security implications.
• After its disastrous 1962 border war with China, it was concerned about a possible Chinese intrusion through the pass and has been keen to hold on to the strategic Himalayan route to guard against any future incursions.
• The link road via Lipulekh Himalayan Pass is also considered one of the shortest and most feasible trade routes between India and China.

2) Susta Region

• It is about 140 sq. km of land in Uttar Pradesh at the Nepal border in the Terai area. India has control of the territory. Nepal claims this territory.
• The change of course by the Gandak river is the main reason for disputes in the Susta area.
• Susta is located on the bank of the Gandak river.

• It is called the Narayani river in Nepal.
• It joins Ganga near Patna, Bihar.

Issue of Simultaneous floods in Bihar and Nepal

• Some of Nepal’s biggest river systems originate in the Himalayan glaciers which then flow into India through Bihar.
• During the monsoons, these river systems flood causing many problems for Bihar.
• It is a necessity that there is process-driven coordination between the Centre and the Government of Bihar to handle the flooding in Nepal’s Terai and North Bihar (largely the Mithilanchal region).

Which are those flooding rivers?

• Nepal’s three biggest river systems—Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali—originate in the high mountain glaciers, flow through the country and then enter India through the state of Bihar.
• During the monsoon season, these river systems often get flooded due to heavy rains/landslides in Nepal which create floods in India’s most flood-prone state—Bihar.

Why Nepal is Important to India?

1. It acts as a strategic buffer against the aggression of China.
2. The Pakistan factor: peddling of FICN, drugs and terrorism through the Indo-Nepal border. It makes the cooperation of Nepal important.
3. India and Nepal share common culture: There are huge Nepali communities in Darjeeling and Sikkim. Many marital relations across the border exist.
4. National Security: There is a lot of interdependence. Gurkha Regiment in Indian Army is known for its valiance.
   • Nepal could play in the hands of China which could be detrimental to Indian interests. Hence they need to be kept as close as possible.
5. Ministry of External Affairs term India-Nepal Relation as “Roti-Beti ka Rishta” (Relation of food and marriage)
6. Energy Security: Nepal has the potential of 80 GW of hydroelectricity. But only 600 MW potential is realized so far.
   • Nepal’s lack of cooperation in this regard has hindered development. The surplus could be used for Indian border states.

Major Irritants in bilateral ties

1) Nepali nationalism and Anti-India sentiments

• Anti-India Sentiment in Nepal is largely politically motivated as it is wrongly perceived as India’s backing to Monarchy.
• The widening gap in understanding each other’s concerns has helped feed Nepali nationalism and create a dense cloud of distrust and suspicion between the two countries.
• The gap widened after India chose to impose an economic blockade in response to Nepal’s sovereign decision to promulgate a democratic constitution.

2) China factor

• Increasing Chinese presence in Nepal is one of the major concerns for India. China’s move to extend the rail link to its border with Nepal can reduce its dependence on India.
• Fundamentally these Chinese agencies are building up anti-India sentiments in Nepal.
• Nepal’s assent for the ‘One Belt One Region’ (OBOR) initiative of China is viewed by India with suspicion.
• Nepal has been slowly fallen prey to China’s inroad debt trap policy.

3) India has ignored the changing political narrative for long

• The reality is that India has ignored the changing political narrative in Nepal for far too long.
• For too long India has invoked a “special relationship”, based on shared culture, language and religion, to anchor its ties with Nepal.
• The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship which was sought by the Nepali authorities in 1949 is viewed as a sign of an unequal relationship, and an Indian imposition.

4) Open borders

• The issue of open borders has also been a point of debate in Nepal in recent years- Nepalese people argue that India is benefiting more from it than Nepal.
• It has an open border with India which leads to problems such as illegal migrants, counterfeit currency entry, drug and human trafficking.

5) Madhesis Issue

• Madhesis share extensive cross-border ethnic and linguistic links with India. India’s involvement in Nepali politics and the upsurge in Madhesi have deep roots in history and unless resolved.
• Madhesis protest and India’s blockade soured the relations for the worst.

Way Forward

1) Dialogues for Territorial Disputes

• In the best spirit of friendship, Nepal and India should restart the water dialogue and come up with policies to safeguard the interests of all those who have been affected on both sides of the border.
• India needs to be a sensitive and generous partner for the neighbourhood first policy to take root.
• The dispute shall be negotiated diplomatically under the aegis of International law on Trans-boundary Water Disputes.

2) Sensitising Towards Nepal

• The onus is on India to rethink on a long-term basis how to recalibrate its relationship with Nepal provided Nepal should not ignore its relations with India.
• It should maintain the policy of keeping away from the internal affairs of Nepal, meanwhile, in the spirit of friendship, India should guide the nation towards more inclusive rhetoric.

3) Strengthening Economic Ties

• The power trade agreement needs to be such that India can build trust in Nepal. Despite more renewable energy projects (solar) coming up in India, hydropower is the only source that can manage peak demand in India.
• For India, buying power from Nepal would mean managing peak demand and also saving the billions of dollars of investments that would have to be invested in building new power plants, many of which would cause pollution.

4) Investments from India

• The Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) signed between India and Nepal needs more attention from Nepal’s side.
• The private sector in Nepal, especially the cartels in the garb of trade associations, are fighting tooth and nail against foreign investments.
• It is important that Nepal conveys this message that it welcomes Indian investments.

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Context

Russia’s war on Ukraine has decisively shaped international opinion. Indian foreign policy is also going to be affected in a profound manner.

India-Russia Relation – Background

• India and Russia have enjoyed good relations since 1947 wherein Russia helped India in attaining its goal of economic self-sufficiency through investment in areas of heavy machine-building, mining, energy production and steel plants.
• India and the Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in August 1971 which was the manifestation of the shared goals of the two nations as well as a blueprint for the strengthening of regional and global peace and security.
• After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India and Russia entered into a new Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993 and a bilateral Military-Technical Cooperation agreement in 1994.
• In 2000 both countries established a Strategic Partnership. In 2010, the Strategic Partnership was elevated to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”.

Bilateral Relations and Areas of Cooperation

(1) Political Relations

• The Annual Summit meeting between the Prime Minister of India and the President of the Russian Federation is the highest institutionalized dialogue mechanism in the strategic partnership between India and Russia. 1
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin held their first informal Summit in the city of Sochi in the Russian Federation on May 21, 2018
• Russia recently awarded PM Narendra Modi Russia’s highest state decoration – The order of St Andrew the Apostle.
• Two Inter-Governmental Commissions – one on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC), and another on Military-Technical Cooperation (IRIGC- MTC), meet annually.

(2) Economic Relations

• Bilateral trade between both countries is concentrated in key value-chain sectors.
• These sectors include highly diversified segments such as machinery, electronics, aerospace, automobile, commercial shipping, chemicals, pharmaceuticals etc.
• The two countries intend to increase bilateral investment to US$50 billion and bilateral trade to US$30 billion by 2025.
• In 2019, total bilateral trade between the two countries from January-September, 2019 stood at USD 7.55 billion.
• Top imports: Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products, pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical machinery, fertilizers, etc.

• Top Exports: Pharmaceutical products,        electrical machinery and equipment, organic chemicals, vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, etc.

(3) Defence partnership 

• India-Russia military-technical cooperation has evolved from a buyer-seller framework to one involving joint research, development and production of advanced defense technologies and systems.
• The first-ever Tri-Services exercise –‘INDRA 2017’ took place in Vladivostok from October 19 to 29, 2017.
• It has provided significant enhancement to India’s indigenous defense manufacturing.
• Some of the major defense collaboration programs are: the BrahMos Cruise Missile program, Sukhoi Su-30 and Tactical Transport Aircraft.

(4) Energy Security 

• In the Energy sector, Russia has built nuclear reactors in India (Kudankulam reactors), adopted a strategic vision in nuclear energy, and offered oil, gas and investment opportunities in the fuel sector of Russia e.g., Sakhalin I, etc.
• India and Russia secure the potential of designing a nuclear reactor specifically for developing countries, which is a promising area of cooperation.
• India’s nuclear power generation capacity of 6,780 MW may increase to 22,480 MW by 2031, contributing to the country’s efforts to turn to green energy.
• Cooperation between the two countries in energy transformation can be seen from the joint venture between India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. and Russia’s Sibur, the country’s largest petrochemicals producer.
• Both sides are considering the possibilities of building a hydrocarbon pipeline system, connecting the Russian Federation with India.

(5) Space technology 

• India and Russia have a four-decade strong relationship in the field of space.
• The former Soviet Union launched India’s first two satellites, Aryabhata and Bhaskar.
• Russia has provided India with Cryogenic technology to build heavy rockets. Historically, there has been a long history of cooperation between the Soviet Union and India in space.
• In Nov 2007, the two countries have signed an agreement on joint lunar exploration.
• Chandrayaan-2 was a joint lunar exploration mission proposed by the ISRO and the Russian Federal Space Agency (RKA).
• Both are collaborating for the scheduled Gaganyaan Mission.

(6) Global Partnership 

• Russia has supported India’s bid for a permanent seat in UNSC.
• It has been favoring Indian entry to the Nuclear Supplier Group.
• Both countries coordinate each other over various forums including BRICS, SCO, G20, etc.

(7) Cultural Cooperation 

• From people-to-people contacts (through programs like ‘Namaste Russia’) to sharing educational brilliance of both the countries through institutes like Jawaharlal Nehru Cultural Centre, both the countries have had good cultural links
• There is a strong interest among Russian people in Indian dance, music, yoga and Ayurveda
• As Russia and India both desire a multi-polar world, they are equally important for each other in fulfilling each other’s national interests. However, due to the changing geopolitical scenario, the relationship between both countries is not as good as it used to be in the cold war era.

Recent trends in bilateral ties

• Despite the best efforts divergences are growing in this bilateral relationship as the underlying structural changes in the international environment are pulling the two nations apart.
• Even in the past, the duo have tried to ground their bilateral relations in the wider realities of changing the global balance of power.
• Now with the US upending the rules of global governance, there is renewed concern that their foreign policies need greater coordination if only to preserve their equities in the global order.
• India, of course, has a long-standing relationship with Russia but that is undergoing a shift in light of rapidly evolving geopolitical realities.

Bilateral divergence

• While the top leadership of the two nations have continued to engage with each other, divergences have been cropping up with disturbing regularity.
• For India, what should be concerning is Russia’s increasing tilt towards Pakistan as it seeks to curry favor with China.
• Moscow had historically supported New Delhi at the United Nations Security Council by repeatedly vetoing resolutions on the Kashmir issue.

(1) Military-defence Complex

• Russia is the dominant supplier of arms to India, with the historic military and defence ties between the two countries continuing to serve as one of the cornerstones of the India-Russia relationship.
• Strains are becoming apparent as India moves further along the path of military indigenization and import diversification.
• India’s procurement from the US and France has also been seen as a heated divergence between the two.
• This was a result of the unreliability of Russian supplies, as manifested in late arrivals, defective parts, and perennial conflicts overpricing and warranties.

(2) Cultural Vacuum

• On an everyday level, while Indian films and yoga are popular in Russia, no parallel exposure to any aspect of Russian popular culture exists among Indians.
• This is the most woefully neglected aspect of their relationship, suffering on both sides from lack of funding and, no less important, a shortage of political will.
• Another aspect of ties is tourism which could be much more vigorous between the two countries than present India’s US affinity.

(3) India-US ties

• Rapidly expanding ties and growing defence relationship between India and US, and India joining QUAD group led by the US has led to a strategic shift in Russia’s foreign policy, pushing it to align with China.
• The signing of the long-awaited Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and other security related agreements, is set to elevate the bilateral defence partnership and give India access to advanced U.S. defence systems.
• Another successful deliverable for India is Washington’s solidarity on the issue of terrorism expressed during the talks.
• The two sides “called on Pakistan to ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries.
• However, a closer engagement with the U.S. is a challenge for India, as this relationship is not likely to be a partnership of equals, for the foreseeable future.

(4) One Dimensional Trade

• India Russia trade has been mostly restricted to defence trade.
• Other challenges in boosting trade – number of issues that hinder India-Russia trade, like, connectivity issues, distance, weak banking links, cumbersome regulations on both sides and Russia’s restrictive visa regime.

(5) Change in Russia’s foreign policy posture 

• Russia is tilting toward Pakistan, China, and even recognizing the Taliban.

• Pakistan – conducted military exercise; signed a military-technical cooperation agreement for arms supply and weapon development.
• China – increasing strategic military relations between the two nations; Russia selling advanced military technology to China; endorsing China’s One Belt One Road initiative.

(6) Differences over the Indo-Pacific

• Both India and Russia have a difference of opinion in understanding the concept of the Indo-Pacific.

• Russia opposes the term Indo-Pacific as the term is primarily a US-led initiative aimed to contain China and Russia.
• Russia does not accept the concept of QUAD. Instead, Russia supports the concept of Asia Pacific.

Steps taken to address the downturn in the relationship

• Sochi Informal Summit 2018: The strategic partnership between the two has been elevated into a “special privileged strategic partnership”.
• Reinforced defense ties: both countries finalized Su-400 air defense systems and nuclear-powered submarine (Chakra III) deal, construction of Ka-226 helicopters in India under the Make in India initiative.
• Improving Trade Relations: India Russia Strategic Economic Dialogue was started in 2018 to achieve the target of $30 billion investment goal by 2025 between both countries
• India participated in the Eastern Economic Forum (2020) which aims to support the economic development of Russia’s resource-rich Far East.
• India has extended a $1 billion line of credit for the development of this region. Also, the proposal for a maritime route between Chennai and Vladivostok has been made.
• Strengthening Energy cooperation: Cooperation in the development of oil in Russia including its arctic shelf and joint development of projects on the shelf of the Pechora and Okhotsk Seas.
  • For increasing connectivity, both sides called for the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Potential Areas for Deepening Ties

• Connectivity: There is scope for improvement in trade between Russia and India if the international North-South corridor through Iran and the Vladivostok-Chennai Sea route can be operationalized.
• Technology: India can benefit from hi-tech cooperation with Russia in the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, outer space, and nanotechnology.
• Education, R&D: India can also cooperate with Russia on upgrading its basic research and education facilities. 
• Diversifying Economic Engagement: Apart from traditional areas of cooperation such as weapons, hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, and diamonds, new sectors of economic engagement are likely to emerge – mining, agro-industrial, and high technology, including robotics, nanotech, and biotech.
  • Mutual benefits in the trade of natural resources such as timber and agriculture can also be harnessed.

Why is Russia Important to India?

• Russia’s status in the international sphere: Russia remains, and will remain a pre-eminent nuclear and energy power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council
• Multipolar World Politics: Since the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, maintaining close and strategic relations with Russia and the US at the same time is indispensable for India. A strong partnership with Russia provides India with leverages to deal with other countries.
• Support for UNSC seat: Russia has stated publicly that it supports India receiving a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. 
• Counterbalance to China Aggression: India has no option but to have a close relationship both with the US and Russia and to manage its difficult relationship with China. 
  • So long as Russia’s relationship with the West remains strained, Russia will look toward China. So long as Sino-Indian relations remain troubled, Russia’s going into the Chinese sphere of influence will not suit India.
• India’s energy security: India to look toward Russia as an alternative source of energy supplies as the situation in the Middle East is escalating with threats to essential oil trade routes
• Important Technology supplier: Russia can help India build its technological potential by providing access to its technologies, especially in defense technology and nuclear technology.

Recent Developments

As Russia declares war on Ukraine, the impact will also be on the recovering economies around the world, including India.

India’s position on the Ukraine issue

•  New Delhi has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.
• A geopolitical necessity: India’s Russia tilt should be seen not just as a product of its time-tested friendship with Moscow but also as a geopolitical necessity.
• China problem: India’s problem is China, and it needs both the U.S./the West and Russia to deal with the “China problem”.

Implications of war on Ukraine for India

• It will embolden China: Russian action in Ukraine dismissing the concerns of the rest of the international community including the U.S. will no doubt embolden China and its territorial ambitions.
• Sanctions on Russia will impact India’s defense cooperation: The new sanctions regime may have implications for India’s defense cooperation with Moscow.
• Russia-China axis: The longer the standoff lasts, the closer China and Russia could become, which certainly does not help India.
• The focus will move away from Indo-Pacific: The more severe the U.S.-Russia rivalry becomes, the less focus there would be on the Indo-Pacific and China, which is where India’s interests lie.

Way Forward

• India and Russia have to identify their strengths and common concerns like developing joint projects in third countries. 
  • Such as the involvement of India and Russia in the Rooppur nuclear plant project in Bangladesh.
• Focus on Eurasia: India and Russia have to explore their opportunities in the Eurasian region.
  • India can study the possibility of expanding Russia’s idea of an “extensive Eurasian partnership”.
• India must take advantage of Russia’s capacity in helping India to become self-sufficient in Defence.
  • For example, India’s collaboration with Russia in the Brahmos Missile made India export such missiles to countries like the Philippines.
• India needs to balance its relationship between Russia, China, and the US: This is essential after the US conducted a Freedom of Navigation operation (FONOP) in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
• India has to utilise the scientific and technological base in Russia for the development of India’s problems.
• Cooperation at Multilateral Forums: strengthening ties through various multilateral organizations including BRICS, RIC, G20, East Asia Summit, and SCO – where avenues for cooperation on issues of mutual importance exist.
• Engaging Russia in Indo-Pacific narrative: India should pursue and facilitate Russia’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Russia’s active engagement in the region would contribute to making the Indo-Pacific truly “free and inclusive”.
• Prioritizing RIC in Indian Foreign Policy: India must promote mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation between Russia, India, and China, which could contribute to the reduction of mistrust and suspicion between the three countries.

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Context

The theme of this year’s World Water Day was ‘Groundwater: Making the Invisible Visible’. The primary focus is to draw attention to the role of groundwater in water and sanitation systems, agriculture, industry, ecosystems, and climate change adaptation. Groundwater helps reduce the risk of temporary water shortage and caters to the needs of arid and semiarid regions, but its value has not been fully recognized in policymaking. Due to its high storage capacity, groundwater is more resilient to the effects of climate change than surface water. The international conference on ‘Groundwater, Key to the Sustainable Development Goals’ and the UN­Water Summit on Groundwater are part of global initiatives to highlight the significance of groundwater in sustainable development.

Important Facts

• Estimates: 85% of the rural and 50% of the urban population in India is dependent on groundwater for fulfilling their needs.
• With an annual groundwater extraction of 248.69 billion cubic meters (2017), India is among the largest users of groundwater in the world.
• Almost 89% of the groundwater extracted is used for irrigation and the rest for domestic and industrial use (9% and 2%).
• High water stress: India is one of 17 countries facing extremely high water stress, according to a report by the World Resources Institute.
  • According to the Fifth Minor Irrigation Census, the groundwater level in India has declined by 61 percent between 2007 and 2017. It was further observed that more than 1,000 blocks in India have become water-stressed.
• Composite Water Management Index (CWMI), 2018 by NITI Aayog: The water demand will exceed the supply by 2050. Groundwater in India depleted at 10-25 mm per year between 2002 and 2016.
  • 54 percent of India’s groundwater wells are declining.
  • It added that about 40% of India’s population possibly would have no access to drinking water by 2030.
• Extraction value: According to the Central Ground Water Board, the annual groundwater withdrawal is considered to be safe when the extraction rate is limited to below 70% of the annual replenishable recharge.
  • Available data indicate that the level of extraction for the country in 2017 was 63%, from 58% in 2004.
• Variation across regions: However, the level varied across regions. Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry have crossed the 70% mark.
  • Of 534 districts in 22 States/UTs, 202 districts had stage of extraction ranging from 71% to 385%. NITI Aayog has set the 70% extraction value as the target to be achieved by 2030.
  • Recent studies suggest that groundwater levels are declining in several parts of northern India, especially in regions of high population densities.
• Quality concern: A quantity­wise safe district may be vulnerable due to deterioration of water quality. Fluoride, iron, salinity, nitrate, and arsenic contamination are major problems.
  • As many as 335 districts reported nitrate pollution compared to 109 in 2006. A high level of nitrate affects human health.
  • Sources of nitrates are mainly anthropogenic and depend on local actions.
  • Biological contamination has also been reported from different parts of the country.

Reasons for Depletion

• Increased demand for water for domestic, industrial and agricultural needs and limited surface water resources lead to the over-exploitation of groundwater resources.
• Limited storage facilities owing to the hard rock terrain, along with the added disadvantage of lack of rainfall, especially in central Indian states.
• Green Revolution enabled water-intensive crops to be grown in drought-prone/ water deficit regions, leading to over-extraction of groundwater.
• Frequent pumping of water from the ground without waiting for its replenishment leads to quick depletion.
• Subsidies on electricity and high MSP for water-intensive crops is also leading reasons for depletion.
• Water contamination as in the case of pollution by landfills, septic tanks, leaky underground gas tanks, and overuse of fertilizers and pesticides leads to damage and depletion of groundwater resources.
• Inadequate regulation of groundwater laws encourages the exhaustion of groundwater resources without any penalty.
• Deforestation, unscientific methods of agriculture, chemical effluents from industries, and lack of sanitation also lead to pollution of groundwater, making it unusable.
• Natural causes include uneven rainfall and climate change that are hindering the process of groundwater recharge.

Impact

• Lowering of the water table: Groundwater depletion may lower the water table leading to difficulty in extracting groundwater for usage.
• Reduction of water in streams and lakes: A substantial amount of the water flowing in rivers comes from seepage of groundwater into the streambed. Depletion of groundwater levels may reduce water flow in such streams.
• Subsidence of land: Groundwater often provides support to the soil. When this balance is altered by taking out the water, the soil collapses, compacts, and drops leading to subsidence of land.
• Increased cost for water extraction: As the depleting groundwater levels lower the water table, the user has to delve deep to extract water. This will increase the cost of water extraction.

• Contamination of groundwater: Groundwater that is deep within the ground often intermingles with saltwater that we shouldn’t drink.

• Constraints in food supply: If groundwater availability faces difficulties then there will be hindrances in agricultural production leading to a shortage of food.
• Limitations to biodiversity and creation of sinkholes: Water table plays a major role in sustaining biodiversity. Often, sinkholes are created when the water table lowers. These sinkholes are dangerous for buildings and towers.

Policy challenges

• Estimation of groundwater resources: There is a lack of data available for estimation of groundwater sources and even if they are available, they are indicative and not representative.
• Crop pricing and water-intensive crops: Decisions such as cropping pattern and cropping intensity are taken independent of the groundwater availability in most areas.
  • Minimum Support Price (MSP) is also available for water-intensive crops leading to widespread cultivation of such crops.
• Energy subsidies: The challenge is to find a balance between the needs of farmers and the need to ensure the sustainable use of groundwater.
• Inadequate regulation: Lack of proper regulations and their further implementation has been one of the major challenges in managing groundwater levels in India.
• Lack of local management: There is a lack of local management of groundwater resources. Local communities have an important role to play in groundwater management and there is a need for devolution of power for local management of such resources.

Government initiatives

(1) National Water Policy (2012) by Department of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation. The policy advocates –

• Rainwater harvesting and conservation of water.
• Highlights the need for augmenting the availability of water through direct use of rainfall.
• Conservation of river, river bodies and infrastructure in a scientifically planned manner through community participation.

(2) Creation of a new Ministry of Jal Shakti for dealing with all matters relating to water at one place in an integrated manner.

(3) Atal Bhujal Yojana (Atal Jal): It is a Central Sector Scheme, for sustainable management of groundwater resources with community participation in water-stressed blocks.

(4) Mass awareness programs (Training, Seminars, Workshops, Exhibitions, Trade Fares and Painting Competitions, etc.) are conducted from time to time each year under the Information, Education & Communication (IEC) Scheme.

 (5) Encouraging farmers to adopt micro-irrigation techniques such as drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers.

• The government has initiated schemes like the DRIP program, more drop per crop, Krishi Sinchai Yojana to ensure economical water use practices in agriculture.

(6) Use of tensiometer: The tensiometer gives visual information about the availability of soil moisture conditions. Irrigating the field based on this information will help conserve groundwater.

Way Forward

• Routine survey at regular intervals: There should be regular assessment of groundwater levels to ensure that adequate data is available for formulating policies and devising new techniques.
• Assessment of land use pattern: Studies should be carried out to assess land use and the proportion of agricultural land falling under overt-exploited units.
  • This will help in determining suitable crop patterns in water-stressed areas.
• Changes in farming methods: To improve the water table in those areas where it is being overused, on-farm water management techniques and improved irrigation methods should be adopted.
  • Methods for artificial recharge of groundwater are also welcome.
  • Bottom-up approach by empowering the local community to become active participants in managing groundwater.
  • Creating regulatory options at the community level such as panchayat is also one among the feasible solutions.
  • Traditional methods of water conservation should be encouraged to minimize the depletion of water resources.

• Reforms in power supply subsidies for agriculture: The agricultural power-pricing structure needs to be revamped as the flat rate of electricity adversely affects the use of groundwater.
• Monitoring groundwater extraction: There should be a policy in place to monitor the excessive exploitation of groundwater resources to ensure long-term sustainability.
  • Water meters could be installed to monitor overuse.
  • There should be restrictions to cut off the access to groundwater in areas identified as “critical” and “dark zones”, where the water table is overused or very low.
  • There is a need to treat water as a common resource rather than private property to prevent its overexploitation
• Preventing groundwater pollution – Steps to minimize and control the dumping of industrial waste into surface water and underground aquifers should also be taken to prevent groundwater from getting polluted.
  • Problems and issues such as waterlogging, salinity, agricultural toxins, and industrial effluents, all need to be properly looked into.
• The synergy between Central, State and Local governments – Steps need to be taken to achieve optimum benefits of groundwater conservation schemes.
  • This can be done by ensuring coordination between all the ministries and departments of government at the Central, State, and Local levels.
• Water to be brought under Concurrent List – If water is brought under the Concurrent List of the Indian Constitution, this can help in the development of a comprehensive action plan.
  • Consensus between the centre and states will result in better conservation, development and management of water, including groundwater.
• Surface water body management: Restoration of ponds, lakes and other traditional water resource structures should be an integral part of the development projects of urban and rural areas and it will substantially develop groundwater potential.
• Wastewater management: Dual sewage system for grey water and black water and promoting reuse of the recycled water in agriculture and horticulture.
  • Industries should also be encouraged to increase water use efficiency, effluent treatment, reuse of used water, zero liquid discharge, etc.
• Implementing Mihir Shah Committee (2016) recommendations: Central Water Commission and the Central Ground Water Board could be united and a national water framework with an integrated perspective developed.
  • There is also a need to work out local­level plans covering water resources in all their forms: rainwater, surface water, soil water and groundwater and the resource use sectors.

Conclusion

Groundwater depletion is becoming an alarming issue day by day. It is high time that the causes are paid attention to and appropriate measures are taken to prevent a possible water crisis in the future. Leveraging schemes like Atal Bhujal Yojana which seeks to strengthen the institutional framework and bring about behavioral changes at the community level for sustainable groundwater resource management is vital.

The new paradigm for groundwater management is a socio­ecological challenge, where localism matters. It warrants technical, economic, legal and governance remediation with space for active public participation and community regulatory options to maintain groundwater balance at the village/watershed level.

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Context

Pakistan’s opposition parties are ready to move a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Imran Khan. The country is facing a recurring financial crisis and Khan is accused of mismanaging the economy.

What is the real issue?

• Anger against the govt: Pakistan’s economy was already facing a crisis that Khan has been unable to resolve. He has been accused of mismanaging the economy and the country’s foreign policy.
• Pakistan military’s stance: When Khan came to power, he had the complete support of the military. As pressure grows on Khan, Pakistan’s powerful military is said to have withdrawn support to the government.
• Support within his government: Ahead of the crucial no-confidence vote, Khan’s cabinet ministers are resigning. Khan is losing support quickly and it is unlikely that he will survive the no-confidence vote.

Pakistan has a history of political crisis

• Political instability has been endemic with the country alternating between military interventions and civilian rule.
• Inherent motives of elite class: Reforms that could have transformed the country and placed its economy on a high-growth were repeatedly postponed as they would have threatened the ruling elite’s privileges and hold on power.
  • Complicating the quest to address persistent economic, governance and security challenges was the impact of global and regional developments.
• Reasons for the political conflict in Pakistan: The political conflict in Pakistan is because of the gap between –
  1. the modern state and traditional society,
  2. between institutional design and practice and
  3. between “a ‘Western’ framework of authority and Islamic norms and practices”.
• Governance failures and the ruling elite’s resistance to reform have marked Pakistan’s political history.
• An Establishmentarian Democracy: Pakistan’s present hybrid regime is democratic only in form and not substance. There is also a long history of manipulation of elections by extra-parliamentary forces to shape outcomes.

Pakistan leaning toward a failed state

• Advance by Taliban: Concerns about stability in Pakistan became more acute when the Taliban began their advance out of Swat towards Punjab. The Taliban had come within 100 miles of Islamabad.
• A collapsed Pakistan will be a nightmare for the US and the region: The US fears that Al Qaeda could launch attacks against the US from Pakistani territory.
  • An even greater fear is that Pakistani nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of radicals. Thus, it is imperative for the US to stabilize Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s approach towards terrorism: Despite military action against the Taliban, Pakistan’s attitude towards terrorism remains ambiguous.
  • It has done precious little to bring to book the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks. Terror groups from Punjab and PoK are regarded as assets against India.
• Seeds of long-term instability have sown: The military has once again become stronger after the Swat operations although.
  • The army has about 20 per cent Pushtuns. The operations against the Taliban who are also Pushtuns may affect the morale within the army.

Failure of CPEC

• China has played the game: China will largely be benefitted by CPEC at the cost of Pakistan. Pakistan is slowly moving towards a financial doomsday.
• Negative Economic Growth of Pakistan: Almost half of the time has passed and CPEC has not been able to contribute even a single penny towards the GDP of Pakistan.
  • At the same time, Chinese debts are mounting and the re-payment of these loans and interests is causing holes in the Pakistan economy.
  • CPEC failed to generate even a single job except for casual labour for the construction of some of the projects.
• No accountability for delay/cost escalations: Except early harvest power projects, not even a single CPEC project was completed in time. Each and every project is running late with major cost escalations.
• Ceding of strategic assets: Pakistan has already ceded two islands and is in the process of ceding a few more assets including the entire Gwadar Free Trade Zone to China.
  • In mid-2020, Pakistan also gave total mining rights at its Saindak Mines to China at a throwaway price of just 350 Million USD.
• Military Aspects of CPEC: Military have been ruling the country ever since its inception in 1947 and will continue to do so.
  • Also, Pakistan is facing the wrath of US and other international powers because of its involvement in terror-related activities.
  • Pakistan needs military hardware and at this point of time, China is the only source.
• Industrial output in Chinese Hands: China is slowly acquiring Pakistani industries.
  • As such there is negative growth in the Industrial output of Pakistan in the last 5 years, handing over key industries to China will invariably put China in the driving seat of its economic growth.
  • China is never going to use it for benefit of Pakistan but will make all efforts to achieve maximum profits in the least possible time. It will put a serious strain on Pakistan’s Economy and overall GDP.
• Pakistan is fast turning into a Chinese colony: China is known for its aggressive policies and debt-trap diplomacy. Their union has created a serious impact on the foreign relations of Pakistan.
  • Recently, Pakistan lost all its rapport among the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) especially Saudi Arabia and UAE and one of the major reasons is the dirty association of China-Pakistan.

Balochistan’s Uprising

• During the British withdrawal from the Indian subcontinent, the Kingdom of Balochistan was given the choice of joining India, Pakistan, or remaining independent.
• Balochistan’s king chose to remain independent, and the country did remain independent for over a year.
• In 1948, the Pakistani government used a combination of military and diplomatic means to seize control of the region and incorporate it into Pakistan.
• The insurgency in Balochistan has been active since 1948, owing to a lack of development and the human rights violations in the province by the Pakistani military and terror groups.
• Pakistan claims that India has provided arms and intelligence to these rebel fighters.

Back to Basics: About Balochistan

• Balochistan is one of Pakistan’s four provinces. Despite being the largest province in terms of land area, it is the least populated.
• It is populated by ethnic Baloch people who can be found across modern-day Iran and Afghanistan, while Balochistan has the majority of the Baloch population.
• Balochistan is one of Pakistan’s most important areas, rich in natural gas and oil reserves.

India’s position in Balochistan

• India has always maintained a stance of not intervening in Pakistan’s or any other country’s internal affairs.
• Despite Pakistan’s repeated references to the Kashmir issue over the years, India has remained silent on the Balochistan issue.
• In 2016, however, comments about Balochistan were made in the immediate aftermath of Pakistan’s Independence Day celebrations, which were dedicated to the independence of Kashmir.
• The government of India is now making an issue of annexed areas like Baluchistan should be given back to their people along with independence.
• It is now for the first time taking about such issues a bold step in the right direction, and gets their people the human rights denied to them for long. Pakistan and its Army has not dreamt of this changed India.
• By invoking Balochistan freedom struggle, PM targeted both Pakistan & China, whose CPEC depends on safe passage from Gwadar.

Area of conflict with Afghanistan

• Durand line conflict: Durand line is separating Afghanistan and Pakistan, forced by the British dividing the Pashtun people between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is not endorsed by any Afghan government including the Taliban.
• Independent Pashtunistan can also soon be a reality with areas from Afghanistan and Pakistan making up their country. The Pashtun people are Sunni Muslims.
• Independent Kurdistan freedom movement: The actions in the area for an Independent Kurdistan are also having ramifications on freedom movements of other ethnic groups divided by history.
  • The Kurds are much ahead than all other freedom movements in the area, as they are backed by oil wealth from the region under their control.
  • The Kurds are also divided into three parts: one part with Syria, the second part with Turkey and the third part with Iraq.

Shia-Sunni Divide in Pakistan

• The origin of Shia–Sunni relations can be traced back to a dispute over the succession to the Islamic prophet Muhammad as a caliph of the Islamic community.
• After the death of the Islamic prophet Muhammad in 632, a group of Muslims, who would come to be known as the Sunnis, believed that Muhammad’s successor should be Abu Bakr whereas a second group of Muslims, who would come to be known as the Shia, believed that his successor should have been Ali.
• Recently, thousands of Deobandi followers seen chanting anti-Shia slogans in Pakistan, referring to the community as ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) and calling upon the state to ban Ashura, the Shias’ main religious event to mourn the death of Prophet Muhammad’s grandson Hussain in 680 AD.
• The Pakistan government tried to contain any outbreak of violence, because Shias in Pakistan are a sizeable minority. They represent about 21% of the total Muslim population, the highest number in a country after Iran.
• Violence is inevitable: Deobandi ideology has been given a freer hand, as demonstrated by the passing of the Tahaffuz-e-Bunyad bill in July 2020 in the provincial Punjab Assembly.
  • The bill is problematic due to its lack of consensus on key religious concepts between Sunnis and Shias.
  • Pakistan has reportedly witnessed the killing of approximately 4,847 Shias in incidents of sectarian violence between 2001 and 2018. Karachi saw the targeted killing of Shia doctors and lawyers in 1999, even before 9/11.
  • The Barelvis who are known for greater sympathy with the Shias also seem to have turned against them in recent times.

The state of Pakistan’s economy

• Forex and currency crises: Pakistan has repeatedly run into macroeconomic crises- runaway inflation, current account and trade deficits, depleting foreign reserves, and currency devaluations.
• The two immediate threats to the country’s economy come from the build-up of inflationary pressures, and a payments crisis that stems from a combination of global and domestic factors.
• Foreign exchange reserves crisis: Pakistan’s Forex reserves are plummeting continuously.
• Currency devaluation: A persistently high deficit can potentially lead to an excess supply of a country’s currency in its foreign exchange market, which eventually negatively impacts the value of the currency.
• The IMF bailout: As growth fell and debt services obligations mounted, the country has been faced with a potential balance-of-payments crisis.
  • Pakistan imports most items of domestic consumption, making it more vulnerable to these pressures; the increasing debt servicing obligations have added to the pressure.
  • In exchange for a $6 billion funding package, Pakistan had to commit to structural reforms and reducing public debt. But the funding plan stalled earlier this year over issues related to reform commitments.

Pakistan Army and the State

• The army disregarded the development of the people in order to control more assets.
• In order to justify its existence, it converted Pakistan into a security-seeking State (over-emphasizing the threat from India) where a strong army was considered a necessity for the existence of the country.
• The first military coup happened early in its history — Pakistan President Iskander Mirza abrogated the Constitution and declared martial law on 27 October 1958, and appointed General Ayyub Khan as chief martial law administrator.
• After this incident, the army in Pakistan has always been in control. They have controlled defense and external affairs portfolios since then.
• The Pakistani army is essentially meant to handle external threats, but it is also involved in domestic affairs of the State.

New dynamic Pakistan has to face

• As the US withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan is eager to build a relationship with Washington that is not tied to US stakes in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan does not want to be totally alienated from U.S. in the new geopolitical jousting between the US and China.
• How Pakistan copes with the new dynamic between the US and China as well as manages the deepening crisis in Afghanistan would be of great interest to India.

Pakistan’s approach to alliances

• Pakistan’s insecurities in relation to India meant it was eager for alliances.
•  And as the Anglo-Americans scouted for partners in the crusade against global communism, Pakistan signed a bilateral security treaty with the US and joined the South East Asia Treaty Organisation and Central Treaty Organisation in the mid-1950s.
• Rather than target Pakistan’s alliance with a West that was intensely hostile to Beijing in the 1950s, Chinese premier Zhou Enlai saw room to exploit Pakistan’s insecurities on India.
• While Pakistan’s ties with the US went up and down, its relationship with China has seen steady expansion.
• Pakistan’s relations with the US flourished after the Soviet Union sent its troops into Afghanistan at the end of 1979.
• The US and Pakistan reconnected in 2001 as Washington sought physical access and intelligence support to sustain its intervention in Afghanistan following the attacks on September 11.
• Now the US wants Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to accept a peaceful transition to a new political order in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s ability to adapt to shifting geopolitical trends

• Pakistan worries that its leverage in U.S. will diminish once the US turns its back on Afghanistan and towards the Indo-Pacific.
• Pakistan does not want to get in the Indo-Pacific crossfire between the US and China.
• It would also like to dent India’s growing importance in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
• India should not underestimate Pakistan’s agency in adapting to the shifting global currents.
• Pakistan has been good at using its great power alliances to its own benefit.

Way Forward

• Despite the democratic elections in Pakistan, the military wields real power in the country. This holds true, especially on matters of defense, national security and foreign policy.
• Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), consisting for personnel from Pakistan Armed Forces, is often accused of supporting and training separatist militant groups operating in India.
• Thus, a strong political reform in Pakistan, one that focuses on the welfare of the Pakistani nationals is vital to improving its relations with India.
• There is a need to focus on trade to revive the economy for Pakistan. It need to understand that China is present only for its economic gains and accordingly steps need to be taken.
• Solutions of the problem of mass illiteracy and economic inequities and the imperatives of national integration and national security will determine the degree of political stability, or instability in Pakistan in future.
• Support from the IMF and friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE will only provide some breathing room in the short term to its shattered economy.
• Promoting manufacturing by creating a more investment-friendly environment, broadening its tax base, and encouraging innovation and modernization in export-led industries are just some of the most urgent measures the government can take to address the growing fiscal and current account deficit.
• It is essential for Pakistan to do away with supporting terrorism and terrorist activities as the people of Pakistan are becoming the main victims of their policies.

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