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  • single-use plastic

    The Centre has banned the use of ‘single-use plastic’ from July 1.

    What is the news?

    • The Ministry for Environment, Forest and Climate Change had issued a gazette notification last year announcing the ban, and has now defined a list of items that will be banned from next month.
    • The manufacture, import, stocking, distribution, sale and use of suc plastic, including polystyrene and expanded polystyrene, commodities shall be prohibited with effect from the 1st July, 2022.

    What is Single-Use Plastic?

    • As the name suggests, it refers to plastic items that are used once and discarded.
    • Single-use plastic (SUP) has among the highest shares of plastic manufactured and used — from packaging of items, to bottles (shampoo, detergents, cosmetics), polythene bags, face masks, coffee cups, cling film, trash bags, food packaging etc.
    • It accounts for a third of all plastic produced globally, with 98% manufactured from fossil fuels.
    • SUP also accounts for the majority of plastic discarded – 130 million metric tonnes globally in 2019 all of which is burned, buried in landfills or discarded directly into the environment.
    • On the current trajectory of production, it has been projected that single-use plastic could account for 5-10% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

    SUPs in India

    • India features in the top 100 countries of single-use plastic waste generation – at rank 94 (the top three being Singapore, Australia and Oman).
    • With domestic production of 11.8 million metric tonnes annually, and import of 2.9 MMT, India’s net generation of single-use plastic waste is 5.6 MMT, and per capita generation is 4 kg.

    What are the items being banned?

    • According to the Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016, there is also a complete ban on sachets using plastic material for storing, packing or selling gutkha, tobacco and pan masala.
    • The items on which the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) have announced a ban are earbuds; balloon sticks; candy and ice-cream sticks; cutlery items including plates, cups, glasses, forks, spoons, knives, PVC banners measuring under 100 microns among others.
    • The Ministry had already banned polythene bags under 75 microns in September 2021, expanding the limit from the earlier 50 microns.
    • From December, the ban will be extended to polythene bags under 120 microns.
    • The ban is being introduced in phases to give manufacturers time to shift to thicker polythene bags that are easier to recycle.
    • While manufacturers can use the same machine for 50- and 75-micron bags, the machinery will need to be upgraded for 120 microns.

    Why these items?

    • The choice for the first set of SUPs items for the ban was based on difficulty of collection, and therefore recycling.
    • The enemy is not that plastic exists per se, but that plastic exists forever in the environment.
    • When plastic remains in the environment for long periods of time and does not decay, it turns into microplastics – first entering our food sources and then the human body, and this is extremely harmful.
    • These items are difficult to collect, especially since most are either small, or discarded directly into the environment – like ice-cream sticks.
    • It then becomes difficult to collect for recycling, unlike the much larger items.
    • The largest share of SUP is that of packaging – with as much as 95% of single use belong to this category – from toothpaste to shaving cream to frozen foods.
    • The items chosen are of low value and of low turnover and are unlikely to have a big economic impact, which could be a contributing reason.

    How will the ban be enforced?

    • The ban will be monitored by the CPCB from the Centre, and by the State Pollution Control Boards (SPCBs) that will report to the Centre regularly.
    • Directions have been issued at national, state and local levels — for example, to all petrochemical industries — to not supply raw materials to industries engaged in the banned items.
    • Directions have also been issued to SPCBs and Pollution Control Committees to modify or revoke consent to operate issued under the Air/Water Act to industries engaged in SUP items.
    • Last week, the CPCB issued one-time certificates to 200 manufacturers of compostable plastic and the BIS passed standards for biodegradable plastic.

    What if violation occurs?

    • Those found violating the ban can be penalised under the Environment Protection Act 1986 – which allows for imprisonment up to 5 years, or a penalty up to Rs 1 lakh, or both.
    • Violators can also be asked to pay Environmental Damage Compensation by the SPCB.
    • In addition, there are municipal laws on plastic waste, with their own penal codes.

    How are other countries dealing with single-use plastic?

    • Bangladesh became the first country to ban thin plastic bags in 2002.
    • New Zealand became the latest country to ban plastic bags in July 2019.
    • China issued a ban on plastic bags in 2020 with phased implementation.
    • As of July 2019, 68 countries have plastic bag bans with varying degrees of enforcement.
    • Vanuatu and Seychelles have banned plastic straws outright.

     

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  • Explained: Occurrence of Lightning

    At least 70 people died in lightning strikes across Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

    What is lightning?

    • Scientifically, lightning is a rapid and massive discharge of electricity in the atmosphere some of which is directed towards earth.
    • The discharges are generated in giant moisture-bearing clouds that are 10-12 km tall.
    • The base of these clouds typically lie within 1-2 km of the Earth’s surface, while the top is 12-13 km away.
    • Temperatures in the top of these clouds are in the range of –35° to –45°C.

    Its formation

    • As water vapour moves upward in the cloud, the falling temperature causes it to condense.
    • As they move to temperatures below 0°C, the water droplets change into small ice crystals.
    • They continue to move up, gathering mass until they are so heavy that they start to fall to Earth.
    • This leads to a system in which, simultaneously, smaller ice crystals are moving up and bigger crystals are coming down.
    • Collisions follow and trigger the release of electrons, a process that is very similar to the generation of sparks of electricity.
    • As the moving free electrons cause more collisions and more electrons, a chain reaction ensues.
    • This process results in a situation in which the top layer of the cloud gets positively charged, while the middle layer is negatively charged.
    • The electrical potential difference between the two layers is huge, of the order of a billion to 10 billion volts.
    • In very little time, a massive current, of the order of 100,000 to a million amperes, starts to flow between the layers.

    Types of lightning

    • Broadly, there are three forms of lightning:
    1. Inter-cloud
    2. Intra-cloud
    3. Cloud-to-ground
    • It is the cloud-to-ground form of lightning that kills humans, as well as animals and livestock, and can substantially damage property.
    • While the Earth is a good conductor of electricity, it is electrically neutral.
    • However, in comparison to the middle layer of the cloud, it becomes positively charged.
    • As a result, about 15%-20% of the current gets directed towards the Earth as well.
    • It is this flow of current that results in damage to life and property on Earth.

    How intensely does it strike?

    • A typical lightning flash is about 300 million volts and 30,000 amps.
    • To put it in perspective, household current is 120 volts and 15 amps.
    • A flash of lightning is enough to light a 100-watt incandescent bulb for about three months.

    Why does lightning kill so many people in India?

    • The reason for the high number of deaths is due to people being caught unawares and more than 70% of fatalities happened due to people standing under isolated tall trees.
    • About 25 per cent of the people were struck in the open.
    • Also, lightning is the direct promulgation of climate change extremities.

    Mitigating lightning incidents

    • Lightning is not classified as a natural disaster in India.
    • But recent efforts have resulted in the setting up of an early warning system that is already saving many lives.
    • More than 96% of lightning deaths happen in rural areas.
    • As such, most of the mitigation and public awareness programmes need to focus on these communities.
    • Lightning protection devices are fairly unsophisticated and low-cost. Yet, their deployment in the rural areas, as of now, is extremely low.
    • States are being encouraged to prepare and implement lightning action plans, on the lines of heat action plans.
    • An international centre for excellence on lightning research to boost detection and early warning systems is also in the process of being set up.

     

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  • Need for a National Security Doctrine

    Context

    All major powers undertake a periodic (every 4-5 years) review of their evolving national security objectives. The government of India, on the other hand, has neglected to undertake any such exercise, in the past 75 years.

    India’s defence budget for FY 2022-23

    • In 2022-23, the Ministry of Defence has been allocated Rs 5,25,166 crore.
    • This includes expenditure on salaries of armed forces and
      civilians, pensions, modernisation of armed forces, production establishments, maintenance, and research and development organisations.
    • According to the Stockholm International Peace
      Research Institute (SIPRI), India was the third largest defence spender in absolute terms in 2020
      after USA and China.
    • In the last decade (2012-13 to 2022-23), the budget of the Ministry of Defence has grown at an annual average rate of 8.6%, while total government expenditure has grown at 10.8%.
    • Defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP declined from 2.3% in 2012-13 to 2% in 2022-23.

    Neglect of defence expenditure in India

    • Defence expenditure as non-plan expenditure: Independent India saw defence expenditure being relegated to the “non-plan” category, within the ambit of a Soviet-inspired, central economy.
    • Pension bill linked to defence budget: In another anomaly, the pension bill of veteran soldiers — a separate charge on the exchequer — was linked to the defence budget.
    • Neglect of modernisation needs: And the growing pension bill was given as an excuse for the dwindling funds available for force-enhancement and hardware replacement/modernisation.
    • As a result, the finance ministry, instead of finding ways and means of raising essential, additional funds for national defence demanded that they evolve measures for reducing the pension bill.

    Two issues with our national security approach

    1] Lack of periodic review

    • Every nation faces the eternal “guns vs butter” dilemma.
    • Periodic review: All major powers undertake a periodic (every 4-5 years) review of their evolving national security objectives, the options available, and the economic/military means available for achieving them.
    • Apart from providing fiscal guidance, this process also facilitates the evolution of a national security strategy. 
    • China, has, since 2002, been issuing, with unfailing regularity, a biennial “Defence White Paper”, which encapsulates all of the foregoing, and is available on the Internet; for the information of foes and friends, alike.
    • The government of India, on the other hand, has neglected to undertake any such exercise, in the past 75 years.
    • India is amongst the few major powers which has failed to issue a National Security Strategy or Doctrine.

    2] Lack of organisation reforms

    • A second fact that we need to face is that our armed forces have remained in a Second World War time-warp, as far as their organisation and doctrines are concerned.
    • Lack of political will and internal resistance: Attempts at organisational reform have come to naught due to lack of political will as well as internal resistance from the services; with the constitution of a Chief of Defence Staff and creation of a Department of Military Affairs providing the latest examples.

    Way forward

    • Given the transformed nature of warfare, down-sizing of the Indian army, by substituting manpower with smart technology and innovative tactics, has become an imperative need.

    Agnipath Scheme

    • Recently announced Agnipath scheme provides for the recruitment of youths in the age bracket of 17-and-half to 21 years for only four years with a provision to retain 25 per cent of them for 15 more years.
    • Later, the government extended the upper age limit to 23 years for recruitment in 2022.
    • The personnel to be recruited under the new scheme will be known as Agniveers.

    Suggestions for Agneepath Scheme

    • 1] Not the best time to introduce reform: Given the parlous security situation, on the country’s northern and western borders as well as the ongoing domestic turbulence, this is not the best time to cast the armed forces — already short of manpower — into turmoil, with a radical and untried new recruitment system.
    • 2] The scheme is suitable for the army only: Such a scheme, in its present form, is suitable only for the army, whose large infantry component is not excessively burdened with technology.
    • In case of the navy and air force,  at least 5-6 years are required before a new entrant can acquire enough hands-on experience to be entrusted with the operation or maintenance of lethal weapon systems and complex machinery and electronics.
    • 3] Trial before implementation: A radical change of this nature should have been subjected to a trial before service-wide implementation.
    • Ideally, a few units of the regular or Territorial Army could have been earmarked as a testing ground, and feed-back obtained.
    • 4] Legal backing to post-demobilisation employment: Experience of the past has shown that the home ministry has resisted induction of ex-servicemen into the armed-police and para-military forces, on the grounds that it would spoil the career path of their own cadres.
    • Neglect by the state government: Similarly, state governments and other agencies have blatantly ignored the reservations mandated for ESM.
    • Therefore, if the Agnipath scheme has to offer a meaningful promise of post-demobilisation employment or education, this must be mandated by an Act of Parliament, on the lines of the “GI Bill” enacted by the US Congress.

    Conclusion

    A scheme on the lines of Agnipath, appropriately constituted, and focused on enhancing “combat effectiveness” rather than “effecting savings” or “generating employment,” could have triggered a reformative process. But the above given caveats need to be borne in mind in this context.

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  • What West Seti Power Project can mean for India-Nepal ties?

    India will be taking over an ambitious hydropower project in Nepal — West Seti — nearly four years after China withdrew from it, ending a six-year engagement between 2012 and 2018.

    What is West Seti Hydel Project?

    • The West Seti Dam is a proposed 750-megawatt (MW) hydroelectric dam on the Seti River in the Far-Western Development Region of Nepal.
    • Particularly, it is a storage scheme designed to generate and export large quantities of electrical energy to India.
    • The project is envisaged to provide Nepal 31.9% electricity free.
    • Besides, locals affected by the project are being given a share of Nepali Rs 10 million plus 30 units of electricity per month free.

    Why in news now?

    • The project was earlier accorded to a Chinese company.
    • But Nepal feared that India won’t buy power from China-executed projects.

    Significance: India -Nepal Power Relations

    • Nepal is rich in power sources with around 6,000 rivers and an estimated potential for 83,000 MW.
    • India has formally approached Nepal on many occasions, seeking preferential rights over Nepali waters should it match offers coming from elsewhere.
    • India is viewed as a feasible power market for Nepal.
    • India has undertaken to harness or expressed intent to harness major rivers in the north.

    Issues in project execution

    • There has been some uncertainty in Nepal over India’s inability to deliver projects on time.
    • An ambitious Mahakali treaty was signed back in 1996, to produce 6,480 MW, but India has still not been able to come out with the Detailed project Report.
    • The Upper Karnali project, for which the multinational GMR signed the contract, has made no headway for years.
    • Major reasons for stalling of these projects was a lack of consensus over power purchase agreement with India.
    • Also, seismic sensitivity of the Himalayan Region is the prime consideration.

    What has helped build faith recently?

    • India under PM Modi has been successful in executing the 900-MW Arun Three Project in eastern Nepal’s Sankhuwa Sabha.
    • After a standoff between Nepal and India led to the economic blockade of 2015, equations changed after Deuba took over last July, replacing Oli.

    Benefits for Nepal

    • Nepal has a massive power shortfall as it generates only around 900 MW against an installed capacity of nearly 2,000 MW.
    • Although it is currently selling 364 MW power to India, it has over the years importing from India.

    Hurdles from Nepal’s internal crisis

    • Nepal’s Constitution has a provision under which any treaty or agreement with another country on natural resources will require Parliament’s ratification by at least a two-thirds majority.
    • That will also mean homework will be required before any hydro project is signed and given for execution.

    Way forward

    • Until India agrees to value Nepal’s water and the existing focus on power is not reviewed, mutual distrust may continue.
    • India must start executing its projects timely.
    • And its success is expected to restore India’s image in Nepal and give it weightage in future considerations for hydropower projects, when competition is bound to be tough.
    • West Seti, therefore, has the potential to be a defining model for Nepal India’s power relations in future.

     

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  • Outcomes of the WTO Ministerial Conference

    Recently, member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) wrapped up the Ministerial Conference’s twelfth outing (MC12).

    Key outcomes: “Geneva Package”

    • The conference has secured key agreements on
    1. Relaxing patent regulations to achieve global vaccine equity
    2. Ensuring food security
    3. According subsidies to the fisheries sector
    4. Continuing moratoriums relevant to e-commerce
    • Together they constitute what WTO Director-General is referred to as the “Geneva Package.”
    • India saw some successes at the MC12 with respect to the above mentioned sectors.

    What is the WTO’s Ministerial Conference?

    • The MC is at the very top of WTO’s organisational chart.
    • It meets once every two years and can take decisions on all matters under any multilateral trade agreement.
    • Unlike other organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund or World Bank, WTO does not delegate power to a board of directors or an organisational chief.
    • All decisions at the WTO are made collectively and through consensus among member countries at varied councils and committees.
    • This year’s conference took place in Geneva, Switzerland.

    Major debates at the MC12

    (1) Agriculture

    • India is a significant contributor to the World Food Programme (WFP).
    • India had earlier stated that it had never imposed export restrictions for procurement under the programme.
    • It put forth that a blanket exemption could constrain its work in ensuring food security back home.
    • In such a situation, it would have to keep its WFP commitments irrespective of its domestic needs.
    • Negotiators could not reach agreements on issues such as permissible public stockholding threshold for domestic food security, domestic support to agriculture, cotton, and market access.

    (2) Fisheries

    • India successfully managed to carve out an agreement on ELIMINATING subsidies to those engaged in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.
    • The only exception for continuing subsidies for overfished stock is when they are deemed essential to rebuild them to a biologically sustainable level.
    • Overfishing refers to exploiting fishes at a pace faster than they could replenish themselves — currently standing at 34% as per the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
    • Declining fish stocks threaten to worsen poverty and endanger communities that rely on aquatic creatures for their livelihood and food security.
    • Further, the agreements hold that there would be no limitation on subsidies by developing or least-developed countries for fishing within their exclusive economic zones (EEZ).

    (3) Patent relaxations

    • Member countries agreed on authorising the use of a patent for producing COVID-19 vaccines by a member country, without the consent of the rights holder.
    • Further, it asks member countries to waive requirements, including export restrictions, set forth by WTO regulations to supply domestic markets and member countries with any number of vaccines.
    • The agreement, however, comes too little, too late for economically poorer countries.

     

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  • Explained: Critical Information Infrastructure

    The Union Ministry of Electronics and IT (MeitY) has declared IT resources of ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and UPI managing entity NPCI as ‘critical information infrastructure’.

    Try this PYQ:

    In India, the term “Public Key Infrastructure” is used in the context of

    (a) Digital security infrastructure

    (b) Food security infrastructure

    (c) Health care and education infrastructure

    (d) Telecommunication and transportation infrastructure

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”2d4o8z90sm” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    What is Critical Information Infrastructure (CIC)?

    • The Information Technology Act, 2000 explicitly gives definition of CIC.
    • It defines CIC as a computer resource, the incapacitation or destruction of which shall have debilitating impact on national security, economy, public health or safety.
    • It basically aims to protect the digital assets.
    • The government, under the Act, has the power to declare any data, database, IT network or communications infrastructure as CII.
    • Any person who secures access or attempts to secure access to a protected system in violation of the law can be punished with a jail term of up to 10 years.

    Why is CII classification and protection necessary?

    • IT resources form the backbone of countless critical operations in a country’s infrastructure.
    • Given their interconnectedness, disruptions can have a cascading effect across sectors.

    What led to the classification of CICs?

    • In 2007, a wave of denial-of-service attacks, allegedly from Russian IP addresses, hit major Estonian banks, government bodies – ministries and parliament, and media outlets.
    • It was cyber aggression of the kind that the world had not seen before.
    • The attacks played havoc in one of the most networked countries in the world for almost three weeks.

    Recent incidents of CIC incapacitation

    • In October, 2020 as India battled the pandemic, the electric grid supply to Mumbai suddenly stopped.
    • It hit the mega city’s hospitals, trains and businesses.
    • Later, a study by a US firm claimed that this power outage could have been a cyber-attack, allegedly from a China-linked group.
    • The government, however, was quick to deny any cyber-attack in Mumbai. But prospects cannot be denied.
    • The incident underlined the possibility of hostile state and non-state actors probing internet-dependent critical systems in other countries, and the necessity to fortify such assets.

    How are CIIs protected in India?

    • Created in January 2014, the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC) is the nodal agency.
    • It takes all measures to protect the nation’s critical information infrastructure.
    • It is mandated to guard CIIs from “unauthorized access, modification, use, disclosure, disruption, incapacitation or distraction”.
    • NCIIPC monitors and forecasts national-level threats to CII for policy guidance, expertise sharing and situational awareness for early warning or alerts.

     

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  • What is the I2U2 Initiative?

    The US administration has named the new grouping as “I2U2” — “I” for India and Israel and “U” for the US and UAE. This was earlier referred as West Asian Quad.

    What is the news?

    • US President Joe Biden will host a virtual summit with PM Modi, Israel PM Naftali Bennett and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during his visit to West Asia from July 13 to 16.

    I2U2 Initiative

    • Following the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE, I2U2 was founded in October 2021 to address marine security, infrastructure, and transportation challenges in the region.
    • It was known as the ‘International Forum for Economic Cooperation’at the time.
    • At that time, UAE had referred to the new grouping as the ‘West Asian Quad’.

    What makes this deal outstanding?

    • UAE forming sharing desk with Israel is no easy deal. Arab sentiments against Israel and their proposition for Anti-Semitism are well known.

    Significance of the initiative

    • I2U2 seeks to empower the partners and encourages them to collaborate more closely, resulting in a more stable region.
    • India is seen as a large consumer market as well as a large producer of high-tech and highly sought-after items in the United States.
    • This has led India to enhance its relationship with Israel without jeopardising its ties with the UAE and other Arab states.

    Back2Basics: Abraham Accords

    • The Israel–UAE normalization agreement is officially called the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement.
    • It was initially agreed to in a joint statement by the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 13, 2020.
    • The UAE thus became the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to agree to formally normalize its relationship with Israel as well as the first Persian Gulf country to do so.
    • Concurrently, Israel agreed to suspend plans for annexing parts of the West Bank. The agreement normalized what had long been informal but robust foreign relations between the two countries.

     

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  • How Marine Heatwave fuelled super cyclone Amphan

    The super-cyclone Amphan is said to have been triggered by Marine Heatwaves.

    What is the news?

    • A study has found the presence of a strong MHW beneath the track of the cyclone with an extremely high anomalous sea surface temperature of more than 2.5°C.
    • This coincided with the cyclone track and facilitated its rapid intensification in a short period.

    What are Marine Heatwaves?

    • We know that heatwaves occur in the atmosphere. We are all familiar with these extended periods of excessively hot weather.
    • However, heatwaves can also occur in the ocean and these are known as marine heatwaves, or MHWs.
    • These marine heatwaves, when ocean temperatures are extremely warm for an extended period of time can have significant impacts on marine ecosystems and industries.

    When do they occur?

    • Heatwaves can happen in summer and also in winter, where they are known as “winter warm-spells”.
    • These winter events can have important impacts, such as in the southeast of Australia where the spiny sea urchin can only colonize further south when winter temperatures are above 12 °C.

    What causes marine heatwaves?

    • Marine heatwaves can be caused by a whole range of factors, and not all factors are important for each event.
    • The most common drivers of marine heatwaves include ocean currents which can build up areas of warm water and air-sea heat flux, or warming through the ocean surface from the atmosphere.
    • Winds can enhance or suppress the warming in a marine heatwave, and climate modes like El Niño can change the likelihood of events occurring in certain regions.
    • MHWs can be caused due to large-scale drivers of the Earth’s climate like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

    Impacts of the MHWs

    • Marine heatwaves affect ecosystem structure, by supporting certain species and suppressing others.
    • For example, after the 2011 marine heatwave in Western Australia, the fish communities had a much more “tropical” nature than previously and switched from kelp forests to seaweed turfs.
    • Marine heatwaves can cause economic losses through impacts on fisheries and aquaculture.
    • Temperature-sensitive species such as corals are especially vulnerable to MHWs. In 2016, marine heatwaves across northern Australia led to severe bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

    How do we measure marine heatwaves?

    • A marine heatwave occurs when seawater temperatures exceed a seasonally-varying threshold (usually the 90th percentile) for at least 5 consecutive days.
    • Successive heatwaves with gaps of 2 days or less are considered part of the same event.

    Why study MHWs?

    • MHWs are increasing in frequency due to climate change. MHWs increased by 54 per cent in the last 30 years.
    • MHW has severe socio-economic consequences such as fish mortality, and coral bleaching, and also has the potential to interact and modify other extreme events such as tropical cyclones.

    Way Forward

    • Marine heatwaves clearly have the potential to devastate marine ecosystems and cause economic losses in fisheries, aquaculture, and ecotourism industries.
    • However, their effects are often hidden from view under the waves until it is too late.
    • By raising general awareness of these phenomena, and by improving our scientific understanding of their physical properties and ecological impacts, we can better predict future conditions and protect vulnerable marine habitats and resources.

     

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  • The Cyber factor in the Russia-Ukraine war

    Context

    After 100 days of Ukraine crisis, Russia is yet to achieve what can be termed as a decisive victory in any sector of the current conflict.

    Reasons for the lacklustre performance of Russia

    • Several reasons have been adduced by experts in the West for the lacklustre performance of the Russian army.
    • Lack of motivation: There is a lack of motivation and the poor morale of the Russian forces sent to Ukraine.
    • Outdated weaponry: Russian weaponry being outdated and ineffective to fight an informationalised war under modern conditions.
    • Leadership issue: Russian commanders have also proved inept in devising plans and taking appropriate decisions in battlefield conditions against a determined enemy.

    Important role of cyber warfare

    • Given that cyber is often touted as the Fifth Dimension of warfare, it may be worthwhile to examine whether this indeed is the first major conflict in which ‘cyber’ is playing a crucial role, allowing a weaker nation with cyber capabilities to use it to its advantage.
    • A former Chief of the National Security Agency of the U.S., in his memoirs had said that although cyberspace is a man-made domain, it had become critical to military operations on land, sea, air and in space.
    • A former U.S. Secretary of Defence a few years ago,, even talked of a possible ‘cyber Pearl Harbour to paralyze nations and create a profound sense of vulnerability’.
    • The Russian military oligarchy is indeed among the world leaders in digital disruption and cyber-methodology.
    • One could have reasonably presumed that even before the conflict commenced, Russia would have swamped Ukraine with an avalanche of digital attacks.
    • Ukraine, for its part, has its own digital army, including a corps of digital weapons.

    Limits of cyber warfare

    • There are several publicised instances earlier, of alleged Russian operatives waging a cyberwar against Ukraine.
    • Both sides now possess and use malware such as data-wipers which have proved highly effective.
    • On the day the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Russian cyber units are believed to have successfully deployed destructive malware against several Ukrainian military targets.
    •  A series of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against Ukrainian banking and defence websites occurred simultaneously.
    • As far as the conduct of the war is concerned, the string of small-scale cyberattacks cannot be said to have had any material impact on the conduct or outcome of the conflict.
    • Hence, the cardinal question is why given that Ukraine has put up such a heroic defence — and to a considerable extent stalled the Russian offensive — Russia has not embarked on a massive all-out cyber-offensive.
    • If that be the case, then much of the speculation that cyberattacks in the event of a war provide a perpetrator the capability to enact another ‘Pearl Harbour’ seems highly unrealistic.

    Conclusion

    It is very likely, and possibly a fact, that there are major difficulties in planning and executing massive cyberattacks on a short timeline to ensure higher efficacy of kinetic attacks.

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  • Analysing the Agnipath scheme

    Context

    Recently, the Agnipath scheme for recruitment of short-term contracted soldiers was announced.

    About Agnipath Scheme

    • This will be the only form of recruitment of soldiers into the three defence services from now.
    • The scheme aims at strengthening national security and for providing an opportunity to the youth to serve in the armed forces.
    • Recruits under the scheme will be known as ‘Agniveers’.
    • After completing the four-year service, they can apply for regular employment in the armed forces.
    • They may be given priority over others for various jobs in other government departments.
    • The move is expected to decrease the average age profile of armed forces personnel from the current 32 to 24-26 years over a period of time.

    Benefits of the Agnipath Scheme

    • Lower the average age: The average age in the forces is 32 years today, which will go down to 26 in six to seven years, the scheme envisions.
    • Youthful armed forces will allow them to be easily trained for new technologies.
    • Employment opportunities: It will increase employment opportunities and because of the skills and experience acquired during the four-year service such soldiers will get employment in various fields.
    • High-skilled workforce: The scheme will also lead to the availability of a higher-skilled workforce to the economy which will be helpful in productivity gain and overall GDP growth

    Financial constraints and challenges

    • Directing funds towards modernisation: It has been argued that the savings in the pensions bill — which will show up on the books only after a couple of decades — would be directed towards the modernisation of defence forces.
    • The armed forces do not have that kind of time available to them to postpone their already long-delayed modernisation.
    • Shortage: The Indian Air Force is already down to 30 squadrons of fighter jets against the 42 squadrons it needs, and the Indian Navy is at 130 ships when its vision was to be a 200-ship navy; the Indian Army is already short of 1,00,000 soldiers.
    •  Instead of expanding the economy to support the military, the Government has resorted to shrinking the military.

    Issues with the short-term recruitment

    • No theoretical modelling: As the short-term recruitment policy has neither been theoretically modelled nor tried out as a pilot project, the exact consequences of the move will only be known as they play out.
    • Adverse effect on professional capabilities: But its adverse effect on the professional capabilities of the armed forces is certain.
    • It starts with the very high turnover of young soldiers, the increase in training capacities and infrastructure and the augmentation of the administrative setup for greater recruitment, release, and retention of soldiers.
    • An armed forces boasting of a poor teeth-to-tail ratio is further increasing the tail.
    • Impact on operational capabilities: The tooth-to-tail ratio (T3R), in military jargon, is the amount of military personnel it takes to supply and support (“tail”) each combat soldier (“tooth”).
    • The Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy employ their airmen and sailors in very specialised roles, which require technical skills, and a high degree of training and experience.
    • Because the short-term contractual soldier model (the Agniveer scheme) is going to take a few years to fully play out at an organisational level, the actual degradation of operational capability will only be known then.
    • Class-based recruitment abolished: In the Agnipath proposal, the class-based recruitment has been replaced with an all-India all-class recruitment.
    • It will strike at the core of the organisational management, leadership structures and operating philosophy of the Indian Army.
    • Even though the soldiers in the Indian Army are professionally trained, they also draw their motivation from their social identity  — where each soldier cares for his reputation among the peers in his caste group or his village or his social setting.
    • To replace that with a pure professional identity of a soldier will bring its own challenges in a tradition-bound army.
    • Training challenges: There will be major problems in training, integrating and deploying soldiers with different levels of experience and motivations.
    • An organisation which depends on trust, camaraderie and esprit de corps could end up grappling with rivalries and jealousies amongst winners and losers, especially in their final year of contract.
    • Legal challenges: Even though the Government has kept the contract at four years to deny the Agniveer gratuity and is not counting the contractual period towards regular service, these provisions are bound to be challenged legally.
    •  Over time, this will lead to the salary and pension budget creeping back up again.
    • Political imbalance: The Agnipath scheme also does away with the idea of a State-wise quota for recruitment into the Army, based on the Recruitable Male Population of that State which was implemented from 1966.
    • This prevented an imbalanced army.
    • Academic research shows that the high level of ethnic imbalance has been associated with severe problems of democracy and an increased likelihood of civil war.
    • Impact on motivation: A short-term contractual soldier, without earning pension, will be seen as doing jobs after his military service that are not seen to be commensurate in status and prestige with the profession of honour.
    • Impact on motivation: It will reduce the motivation of those joining on short-term contracts while diminishing the “honour” of a profession which places extraordinary demands on young men.
    • Social unrest: There are numerous examples of demobilised soldiers leading to increased violence against minorities.
    • This could happen in India as the youth who are not given regular recruitment after four year’s service would turn to violence.

    Conclusion

    The Government’s yearning for financial savings runs the risk of reducing the honour of a profession, the stability of a society and the safety of a country.

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