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  • Why policymakers prefer targeting of Retail Inflation over Wholesale Inflation?

    The wholesale inflation in India has grown by double digits. This is the highest year-on-year increase recorded in any month since the start of the 2011-12 data series.

    Context

    • It is surprising policymakers are not looking as concerned as the inflation figures show.
    • The Finance Ministry has largely focused on the trend in retail inflation — or the inflation rate at the level of retail consumers.
    • It is not just the policymakers within the government who prefer to focus on retail inflation but also the RBI.

    Wholesale and Retail (Consumer) Inflation

    • The wholesale and retail (consumer) inflation rates are based on the wholesale price index (WPI) and the consumer price index (CPI), respectively.
    • In other words, we make two separate indices — one each for wholesale prices and retail prices — and see how the index values have gone up in a particular month as against the same month last year.
    • The percentage change is the rate of inflation.
    • The CPI-based inflation data is compiled by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (or MoSPI) and the WPI-based inflation data is put together by DPIIT.

    The tables alongside detail how the two indices — WPI and CPI — differ in their composition. There are two key differences.

    [A] Wholesale Price Index

    Component Weight (in %) Inflation rate (in %);

    Nov 2021
    All Commodities 100.00 14.23
    Primary Articles 22.62 10.34
    Fuel & Power 13.15 39.81
    Manufactured Products 64.23 11.92

    [B] Consumer Price Index

    Component Weight (in %) Inflation rate (in %); 

    Nov 2021
    General Index 100.00 4.91
    Food and beverages 45.86 2.60
    Pan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.38 4.05
    Clothing and footwear 6.53 7.94
    Housing 10.07 3.66
    Fuel and light 6.84 13.35
    Miscellaneous (services) 28.32 6.75

    A Comparison

    (1) Manufactured Goods Vs. Food Items

    • WPI is dominated by the prices of manufactured goods while CPI is dominated by the prices of food articles.
    • As such, if the year-on-year increase in the prices of food articles is subdued, as is the case at present, chances are that the overall (also called headline) retail inflation will be within reasonable bounds.
    • In WPI, if manufactured products are getting costlier at the wholesale level then that would likely spike wholesale inflation regardless of how food prices are doing at the wholesale level.

    (2) Accounting Service

    • Two, WPI does not take into account the change in prices of services. But CPI does.
    • If services such as transport, education, recreation and amusement, personal care etc. get significantly costlier, then retail inflation will rise but there will be no impact on wholesale price inflation.

    Why do policymakers prefer targeting retail inflation instead of wholesale inflation rate?

    • RBI’s limitations: RBI is the monetary authority that has little ability to control food and fuel prices. Ex: raising the repo rate (rate at which RBI lends money to banks) is unlikely to contain the price of vegetables if any disruptions have led to a sudden spike.
    • Non-commodity Inflation: Wholesale inflation does not capture price movements in non-commodity-producing sectors like services, which constitute close to two-thirds of economic activity in India.
    • Large revisions in WPI: Movements in WPI often reflect large external shocks and as such, the wholesale inflation rate is often subject to large revisions.

    Arguments in favour of CPI-based inflation targeting

    • Commodity basket: A crucial reason why CPI-based inflation could not be ignored is the fact that it has almost 57% dominance of food and fuel prices.
    • Affecting general public: Since most people use retail inflation as a way to arrive at their real earnings, and use it for wage negotiations etc., it makes more sense for policymakers,
    • Public faith: The choice of CPI establishes ‘trust’ viz., economic agents note that the monetary policy maker is targeting an index that is relevant for households and businesses.
    • Inflation affecting people: True inflation that consumers face is in the retail market. It is for this reason that almost all central banks in big economies use CPI as their primary price indicator.

    Impact of Wholesale inflation on Retail

    • The Urjit Patel committee analysed the relationship between WPI and CPI based on monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013 — a total of 14 years.
    • When they looked at the impact of an increase in WPI-food inflation on CPI food inflation, they found it to be “significant”.
    • It stated that higher food inflation in wholesale markets leads to an increase in retail food inflation “till two months”.
    • An increase in retail food inflation leads to a corresponding increase in WPI-food inflation.

     

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  • Risks of mandatory Iron Fortification

    Many things have been said about the necessity for mandatory iron fortification of foods in India.

    Iron fortification

    • Iron fortification of food is a methodology utilized worldwide to address iron deficiency.
    • A critical problem in some food fortification programs is the lack of bioavailability of iron compounds.

    Why need iron fortification?

    Ans. Prevalence of Anaemia

    • Iron deficiency anaemia is due to insufficient iron.
    • National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5 provides insights into anaemia prevalence in the country, indicating that 57.2% of women ages 15 to 49 are anaemic, up from 49.7% in NFHS-4.
    • Without enough iron, the body can’t produce enough of a substance in red blood cells that enables them to carry oxygen (hemoglobin).
    • Severe anemia during pregnancy increases your risk of premature birth, having a low birth weight baby and postpartum depression.
    • Some studies also show an increased risk of infant death immediately before or after birth.

    Concerns over iron fortification

    Ans. Fear of diabetes and heart ailments

    • Iron increases the risk for many non-communicable diseases like diabetes, hypertension and even high blood cholesterol.
    • A US based survey shows that high ferritin level had a four-fold higher risk of having diabetes.
    • The Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey of Indian adolescents to resulted in such scary outcomes.
    • There was a clear and significant risk for each of these conditions as serum ferritin increased.

    India’s vulnerability

    Ans. India is world capital of diabetes and hypertension

    • No less than 50% of Indian children, aged 5-19 years, already had a biomarker of either high blood sugar or high blood lipids, even when thin or stunted.
    • Thus, the risk of chronic disease is already very high in our children.
    • Thus mandatory cereal fortification has severe hazards for India.

    Why mandatory fortification is not a feasible option?

    • Occurrence of deficiencies: We do not even know if anaemia is as rampant to warrant such mandatory measures.
    • Manipulating food choices: When mandatory fortification is enforced in parts of the population that do not need this, it removes their choice of foods, or autonomy.
    • Morbidities due to excess: It could even be unethical if the risk of other morbidities is increased.
    • No successful example: Rice fortification has not been shown to work in a combined analysis.

    Conclusion

    • Food fortification is not a magic bullet.
    • It should be viewed as a complementary strategy for the prevention and control of micronutrient deficiencies.
    • As dietary patterns and deficiency states change, monitoring and periodic evaluation will be essential in helping to make necessary changes.

     

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  • After 50 years, Gharials return to Beas Conservation Reserve

    Gharial ( Gavialis gangeticus ) have been successfully reintroduced the in the Beas River of Punjab where it had become extinct half a century ago.

    One may often get confused between the Mugger, Gharial and the Saltwater Crocodile. Note the differences about their IUCN status, habitat (freshwater/saltwater) etc..

    Gharials

    • The Gharial is a fish-eating crocodile is native to the Indian subcontinent. They are a crucial indicator of clean river water.
    • Small released populations are present and increasing in the rivers of the National Chambal Sanctuary, Katarniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary, Son River Sanctuary.
    • It is also found at the rainforest biome of Mahanadi in Satkosia Gorge Sanctuary, Orissa.
    • Gharials are ‘Critically Endangered’ in the IUCN Red List of Species.
    • The species is also listed under Schedule I of the Wild Life (Protection) Act, 1972.

    Into the wild

    • A major chunk of gharials in India is found in the Chambal River, which has about 1,000 adults.
    • The Ghaghara acts as an important aquatic corridor for gharials in Uttar Pradesh. The river is a major left-bank tributary of the Ganges.
    • Like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar too is releasing gharials in the Valmiki Tiger Reserve as part of restocking the wild population. Unlike crocodiles, gharials do not pose any danger to humans.

    Ambitious project in Punjab

    • The gharial reintroduction in the Beas Conservation Reserve is an ambitious programme of the Punjab government.
    • The reptiles were commonly sighted in the Beas River till the 1960s but later became extinct.

    Back2Basics:

    Mugger

    • The mugger is a marsh crocodile which is found throughout the Indian subcontinent.
    • It is a freshwater species and found in lakes, rivers and marshes.
    • IUCN Status: Vulnerable

    Saltwater Crocodile

    • It is the largest of all living reptiles.
    • It is found along the eastern coast of India.
    • IUCN Status: Least Concerned

     

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  • 60th Goa Liberation Day

    Goa hosts PM for the celebration of its 60th liberation day.

    Goan Liberation

    • An important port for trade and military operations, Goa was ruled by the Portuguese for more than 450 years.
    • Historically, revolts against Portuguese rulers and their policies were recorded in the 18th and 19th century too.
    • On June 18, 1946, the movement of Goa’s liberation gathered momentum after socialist leader Dr Ram Manohar Lohia plunged himself into the freedom movement with many young Goans.
    • The day is now observed as Goa Revolution Day.

    Freeing from Portuguese Rule

    • Even as India became independent on August 15, 1947, Goa continued to be under Portuguese rule 14 years after that.
    • After independence, the calls for Goa’s Liberation again gathered steam.
    • After multiple agitations by freedom fighters, India made peaceful attempts for Goa’s liberation through diplomatic channels.
    • However, as a last resort, the Indian government then led by PM Nehru, sent in its armed forces to the coastal state after which the Portuguese surrendered and Goa was liberated on December 19, 1961.
    • This moment also marked the exit of the Portuguese (the first-comers), the last of the European colonizers to leave India.

    Contribution of T.B. Cunha

    • Cunha (1891-1958) was a prominent Indian nationalist and anti-colonial activist from Goa.
    • He is popularly known as the “Father of Goan nationalism”, and was the organiser of the first movement to end Portuguese rule in Goa

    What was ‘Operation Vijay’?

    • Perhaps the first tri-service operation of the Indian armed forces, Operation Vijay was about the liberation of the Portuguese territories of Goa, Daman and Diu.
    • It was a 36-hour military operation that started on December 18, 1961 and concluded on December 19, 1961.
    • While the army advanced into Goa from the North and the East, the Indian Air Force bombed the Portuguese airbase at Dabolim.
    • The Indian Navy was tasked with preventing hostile action by Portuguese warships, securing access to the Mormugao harbour, and securing the Anjadip island off Karwar.
    • By the evening of December 19, 1961, Portuguese Governor General Vassalo De Silva had signed the document of surrender after Indian armed forces.

    What happened after the liberation of Goa?

    • Goa was annexed into the Indian Union and was the Union Territory of Goa, Daman and Diu.
    • In 1967, however, the question of whether the state should merge with Maharashtra or not was answered through a plebiscite in which the majority of the Goan people voted against a merger.
    • It continued to remain a Union Territory until 1987 when it was accorded statehood.
    • Goa became India’s 25th state even as Daman and Diu continue to be UTs.

     

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  • What is Irrecoverable Carbon?

    Researchers have identified and mapped 139 gigatonnes (Gt) of “irrecoverable carbon” in some of the world’s major forests and peatlands — including the Amazon and the Congo — to avoid catastrophic climate change.

    What is Irrecoverable Carbon?

    • The concept of ‘irrecoverable carbon’ was introduced in 2020.
    • All kinds of ecosystems — lush rainforest, muddy peatland, shady mangroves — contain eons of stored carbon, captured by photosynthesis.
    • Per square kilometer, the forests are among the most effective carbon stores in the world; but they’re also some of the most difficult to restore.
    • If destroyed, these ecosystems could take decades or centuries to regenerate.
    • In other words, the 139 gigatons of carbon contained in these areas are effectively irrecoverable if released due to anthropogenic activities.
    • Once released in air, it can be recovered but would take centuries to fully recover or naturally reintegrate.

    What is the new research?

    • In the new study, researchers have identified and mapped carbon reserves that are “manageable, are vulnerable to disturbance” and cannot be recovered by 2050.
    • They held study of peatlands of the Congo Basin and Northern Europe; and in North America, the mangrove swamps of the Everglades and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest.
    • 2050 has been set as the deadline for taking global carbon emissions to net zero in order for Earth to avoid warming at 1.5-2 degrees celsius above the pre-industrial levels.
    • To mitigate such a warming scenario, it is imperative to conserve the ecosystems with 139 Gt carbon.

    Key findings

    • Amazon is the biggest carbon sink on earth, holding 31.5 Gt irrecoverable carbon.
    • Brazil has the second-largest irrecoverable carbon reserves, after Russia that holds 23 per cent of the total irrecoverable carbon outlay in the world.
    • The second-largest reserve of carbon, at 132 Gt, comprise the islands of Southeast Asia, with their equatorial rainforests.
    • The Congo basin is the third-largest hotspot of irrecoverable carbon with over 8 Gt of carbon reserves, according to the study.
    • Australia, which has become a hotspot for wildfires, is home to 2.5 per cent of the world’s carbon reserve along its coastal mangroves and forests in the southeast and southwest.

    Why conserve these forests?

    • These regions are already being ravaged by wildfires and exploited for resources by mining and oil industries.
    • Since 2010, agriculture, logging and wildfire have caused emissions of at least 4 Gt of irrecoverable carbon.

     

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  • Supreme Court allows bullock cart races in Maharashtra

    The Supreme Court has allowed Maharashtra to hold bullock cart races in the state till the pendency of the matter before the Constitutional Bench of the apex court.

    Allowing bullock-cart races

    • The SC observed that the validity of the amended provisions of the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act, 1960 and the rules framed by Maharashtra provided for bullock cart race in the State.
    • Such races would operate during the pendency of the petitions as the entire matter has been referred to a constitution Bench.
    • The state govt has cited examples as the same is being conducted in the states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

    Why was there a ban on the bullock cart races?

    Ans. Ban on Jallikattu, then

    • Bullock cart races were banned in Maharashtra after the Supreme Court declared that the race as violative of the provisions of the central act in 2014.
    • It then had observed that bulls were not anatomically designed to participate in races/taming and would be subjected to cruelty if used as a performing animal.

    How did Maharashtra respond?

    Ans. Bringing in a law to prevent pain or sufferings to the animals

    • In April 2017, the Maharashtra assembly had passed legislation for resumption of bullock cart races across the state.
    • The Bill titled ‘The Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (Maharashtra Amendment) Bill’ was passed unanimously with the support of all parties.
    • As per the amendment, bullock cart races could be held with the prior permission of the district collector concerned by ensuring that no pain or suffering would be caused to the animal.

    Why did the Maharashtra government go to SC?

    Ans. Blanket ban by Bombay HC

    • Even after this law, the Bombay High Court refused to vacate stay on the bullock cart races.
    • Hence it got to approach the SC.

    Proving the running ability of a bull

    • In November 2017, the Maharashtra government set up a committee to study the running capacity of various breeds of bulls and bullocks in comparison to horses.
    • The committee was asked to study physiological and biochemical changes during the running of the bulls, bullocks and horses.
    • A report titled ‘Running ability of bull’ was prepared in two months by the government to justify allowing the bullock cart races.
    • Subsequently, the Maharashtra government challenged the Bombay HC’s order.

    Back2Basics: Jallikattu Debate

    • It is a bull-taming sport and a disputed traditional event in which a bull such is released into a crowd of people.
    • Multiple human participants attempt to grab the large hump on the bull’s back with both arms and hang on to it while the bull attempts to escape.
    • Participants hold the hump for as long as possible, attempting to bring the bull to a stop. In some cases, participants must ride long enough to remove flags on the bull’s horns.
    • It is typically practised in the state of Tamil Nadu as a part of Pongal (harvest) celebrations in January.

    Issue with the sport

    An investigation by the Animal Welfare Board of India concluded that “Jallikattu is inherently cruel to animals”.

    • Human deaths: The event has caused several human deaths and injuries and there are several instances of fatalities to the bulls.
    • Manhandling of animals: Animal welfare concerns are related to the handling of the bulls before they are released and also during the competitor’s attempts to subdue the bull.
    • Cruelty to animal: Practices, before the bull is released, include prodding the bull with sharp sticks or scythes, extreme bending of the tail which can fracture the vertebrae, and biting of the bull’s tail.
    • Animal intoxication:  There are also reports of the bulls being forced to drink alcohol to disorient them, or chilli peppers being rubbed in their eyes to aggravate the bull.

    Arguments in favour

    • Native breed conservation: According to its protagonists, it is not a leisure sport available but a way to promote and preserve the native livestock.
    • Cultural significance: Jallikattu has been known to be practiced during the Tamil classical period (400-100 BCE) and finds mention in Sangam texts.
    • Man-animal relationship: Some believe that the sport also symbolizes a cordial man-animal relationship.

     

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  • Tamil Nadu brings in State Song

    The Tamil Nadu Government has declared the Tamil Thai Vaazhthu as State Song.

    The decision came after the Madras High Court ruling that there is no statutory or executive order requiring the attendees to stand up when Tamil Thai Vaazhthu is sung.

    Tamil Thai Vaazhthu

    • A part of the verses under the title ‘Tamil Dheiva Vanakkam’ from Manonmaniam, penned by Manonmaniam Sundaranar and published in 1891, eventually came to be known as the Tamil Thai Vaazhthu.
    • In 1913, the annual report of the Karanthai Tamil Sangam made the demand for singing the song at all functions.
    • The Tamil Thai Vaazhthu is being sung at Karanthai Tamil Sangam since 1914.
    • It is also being sung at all Tamil Sangams associated with the Karanthai Tamil Sangam.
    • The Karanthai Tamil Sangam had appealed to the then Chief Minister, C.N. Annadurai, to declare Tamil Thai Vaazhthu the State song.

    What was the Madras HC observation?

    • There is no statutory or executive order requiring attendees to stand up when it was being sung.
    • The court, however, ruled that Tamil Thai Vaazhthu “is a prayer song and not an Anthem”.
    • While the “highest reverence and respect ought to be shown”, it was not necessary to stand for it.
    • The song is sung at the commencement (and not at the end) of all functions organized by government departments, local bodies and educational institutions.

    What about National Anthem?

    • In the Bijoe Emmanuel vs. State of Kerala (1986) Case, the Supreme Court ordered the readmission to school of three children who had been expelled for refusing to sing the national anthem.
    • It was then noted by the SC that there is no provision of law which obliges anyone to sing the National Anthem.
    • Again, the Supreme Court had, in Shyam Narayan Chouksey v. Union of India (2017), directed that all cinema halls shall play the national anthem before the film and all present are obliged to stand.

    What is the state directive?

    • TN CM has issued a directive that everyone who is present during the rendition of the song, barring differently-abled persons, should remain standing.
    • The song should compulsorily be sung at the beginning of events organized by all educational institutions, government offices and public sector undertakings, among other public organizations.
    • The song should be sung in 55 seconds in Mullaipaani Ragam (Mohana Raagam) in the thisra thaalaa.
    • At public functions, the playing of the song with musical instruments/recordings is to be avoided, and trained singers should sing it.

    Point of discussion: Is it a case of Sub-nationalism?

    • There has been an intensification of sub-nationalism in India by highlighting the greatness of their state, language or historical state icons.
    • This pride has, at times, led to unimaginable actions. The latest issue of contention was regarding a separate State flag for Karnataka.
    • India also witnesses shocking developments showing the ugly face of provincialism in the North-East.

    Issues with such tendencies

    • Overambitious aspirations: As much as it is a matter of pride it remains a matter of concern when regional aspirations become too strong.
    • Secessionist tendencies: India has already faced partition due to rising religious motives and has been plagued by secessionism in J&K and Nagaland based on regional identities.
    • National Unity: It can be argued that subnationalism emphasizes aggressively on its regional identities then it can break the sensitive thread through which India remains a nation.
    • Communalism: It should be critically studied that whether the state’s assertions are to freely exercise their own culture and language or to belittle and suppress others.

    Affirmations to offer

    • Pluralism: An optimistic view emerges which characterizes subnationalism as the strength of a multi-cultural nation such as India.
    • Socio-economic solidarity: Subnationalism encourages social development as the level of solidarity is high in a state under such motives of state song, flag etc.
    • Unification: State symbols means that a region becomes more and more homogenous and dedicated for welfare under cultural and linguistic symbolization.

    Conclusion

    • As long as subnationalism is not secessionist in nature or is aimed towards other communities, it might become a positive force in India.
    • It will help in re-establishing the nature of the pluralistic society of India amidst the growing manufactured rhetoric of nationalism being falsely related exclusively with religious nationality.

     

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  • How India’s data protection Bill compares with EU regulation

    The Personal Data Protection Bill is in some aspects very similar with some differences to global standards such as European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation. Here is how:

    Must read:

    Draft Personal Data Protection Bill, 2021

    Major similarities

    [1] Consent

    • EU: Users must have informed consent about the way their data is processed so that they can opt in or out.
    • India: Processing of data should be done in a fair and transparent manner, while also ensuring privacy

    [2] Breach

    • EU: Supervisory authority must be notified of a breach within 72 hours of the leak so that users can take steps to protect information
    • India: Data Protection Authority must be informed within 72 hours; DPA will decide whether users need to be informed and steps to be taken

    [3] Transition period

    • EU: Two-year transition period for provisions of GDPR to be put in place
    • India: 24 months overall; 9 months for registration of data fiduciaries, 6 months for DPA to start

    [4] Data fiduciary

    • EU: Data fiduciary is any natural or legal person, public authority, agency or body that determines purpose and means of data processing
    • India: Similar suggestions; additionally, NGOs which also process data to be included as fiduciaries

    Differences:

    [1] Anonymous information

    • EU: Principles of data protection do not apply to anonymous information since it is impossible to tell one from another
    • India: Non-personal data must come under the ambit of data protection law such as non-personal data

    [2] Punishment

    • EU: No jail terms. Fines up to 20 million euros, or in the case of an undertaking, up to 4 % of their total global turnover of the preceding fiscal year
    • India: Jail term of up to 3 years, fine of Rs 2 lakh or both if de-identified data is re-identified by any person.

     

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  • The WTO’s challenge to MSP

    Context

    Amid the demand for legal backing to MSP, the question remains about whether India can provide a legal guarantee violating its international law obligations enshrined in the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) of the World Trade Organization (WTO)?

    Classification of subsidies under AoA: Trade distorting and non-trade distorting

    • The objective of AoA: One of the central objectives of the AoA is to cut trade-distorting domestic support.
    • Three categories: In this regard, the domestic subsidies are divided into three categories: ‘green box’, ‘blue box’ and ‘amber box’ measures.
    • Non-trade distorting: ‘Green box’ subsidies (like income support to farmers de-coupled from production) and ‘blue box’ subsidies (like direct payments under production limiting programmes subject to certain conditions) are considered non-trade distorting.
    • Countries can provide unlimited subsidies under these two categories.
    • Trade-distorting subsidies: Price support provided in the form of procurement of crops at MSP is classified as a trade-distorting subsidy and falls under the ‘amber box’ measures, which are subject to certain limits.

    So, how do countries measure ‘amber box’ support?

    • Compute AMS: To measure ‘amber box’ support, WTO member countries are required to compute Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS).
    • AMS is the total of product-specific support (price support to a particular crop) and non-product-specific support (fertilizer subsidy).

    Understanding the  de minimis limit

    • Under Article 6.4(b) of the AoA, developing countries such as India are allowed to provide a de minimis level of product and non-product domestic subsidy.
    • This de minimis limit is capped at 10% of the total value of production of the product, in case of a product-specific subsidy; and at 10% of the total value of a country’s agricultural production, in case of non-product subsidy.
    • Subsidies breaching the de minimis cap are trade-distorting.

    Possibility of India overshooting the de minimis limit

    • Relation between MSP and AMS: The procurement at MSP, after comparing it with the fixed external reference price (ERP) — an average price based on the base years 1986-88 — has to be included in AMS.
    • Widening gap between ERP and MSP: Since the fixed ERP has not been revised in the last several decades at the WTO, the difference between the MSP and fixed ERP has widened enormously due to inflation.
    • According to the Centre for WTO Studies, India’s ERP for rice, in 1986-88, was $262.51/tonne and the MSP was less than this.
    • However, India’s applied administered price for rice in 2015-16 stood at $323.06/tonne, much more than the 1986-88 ERP.
    • Procuring all the 23 crops at MSP, as against the current practice of procuring largely rice and wheat, will result in India breaching the de minimis limit making it vulnerable to a legal challenge at the WTO.
    • Even if the Government does not procure directly but mandates private parties to acquire at a price determined by the Government, as it happens in the case of sugarcane, the de minimis limit of 10% applies.

    Way forward

    • Peace clause: Although a permanent solution is nowhere in sight, the countries have agreed to a peace clause.
    • The peace clause forbids bringing legal challenges against price support-based procurement for food security purposes even if it breaches the limit on domestic support.
    • The peace clause is applicable only for programmes that were existing as of the date of the decision and are consistent with other requirements.
    • India’s procurement for rice and wheat, even if it violates the de minimis limit, will enjoy legal immunity.
    • However, India will not be able to employ the peace clause to defend procuring those crops that are not part of the food security programme (such as cotton, groundnut, sunflower seed).
    • Move from MSP to income-based support: Arguably, India can move away from price-based support in the form of MSP to income-based support, which will not be trade-distorting under the AoA provided the income support is not linked to production.
    • Supplement price-based support with income-based support: Alternatively, one can supplement price-based support (keeping the de minimis limit in mind) with an income-based support policy.

    Conclusion

    The Government needs to engage with the farmers and create an affable environment to convince them of other effective policy interventions, beyond MSP, that are fiscally prudent and WTO compatible.

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  • How lack of public data on pandemic could harm us

    Context

    Questions are being asked about India’s preparedness as the cases with the Omicron variant of the Coronavirus has been on the rise in the country.

    Where does India stand?

    [1] The Positives

    • Addressing oxygen shortage: The extreme shortages of oxygen that we saw barely six months ago will hopefully not be a feature of a third wave.
    • Vaccinated population: We have now vaccinated more than 50% of the adult population with both doses of vaccine, and approximately 85% have received one or two doses.
    • Ramping up testing to deal with a spike should not require an increase in capacity.
    • More vaccine doses: We have more vaccine doses than in May 2021 and the potential for oral antiviral therapy in the near future.

    [2] The negatives

    • Lack of data: An urgent and important one is the lack of publicly available data on the pandemic from Government sources, particularly in regard to testing, but also in terms of being able to correlate disease severity with age, prior medical conditions, locations and other variables.
    • Data from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), India’s premier medical research agency, remains inaccessible.
    • The National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has not responded.
    • The CoWIN data contains valuable information but it is of little value for future planning and prediction unless it can be tied to testing data and clinical information at the level of individuals.
    • ICMR data not correlated to CoWIN platform data: The Indian Council of Medical Research holds data on every COVID-19 test conducted in India.
    • However, these data are not correlated to the vaccine data in the CoWIN platform.
    • Data with States is inaccessible: Data on hospitalisations, etc. are apparently available at the State level, but seem inaccessible.

    What we can know from the data about pandemic

    • Infer the probability of reinfection: If we knew that a person had tested positive on successive tests separated by, say four months or more, with a negative test in-between, that would suggest a reinfection.
    • We could then infer the probability of such a reinfection.
    • Probability of vaccine breakthrough infection: With information about testing and vaccination status, we could compute the probability of a vaccine breakthrough event.
    • To know the efficacy of single vaccine dose: By checking to see whether the positive test happened after the first but before the second dose of vaccine, or after the second dose, the relative efficacy of such single vaccine doses at preventing disease could be derived.
    • Effect of the vaccine on disease severity: By examining symptoms reported after a vaccine breakthrough event, we could understand the extent to which vaccines reduce disease severity.
    • Impact of new variant: Add to this a layer of sequence information, and we could study the impact of new variants.

    Role of the volunteer organisation

    • The most trustworthy and granular data on cases in India have resulted from the remarkable and public-spirited work of a volunteer organisation, Covid19India.org.
    • Their work has now been taken over by several other voluntary groups, all operating on the same broad principles of data accessibility: covid19bharat.org, incovid19.org and covid19tracker.in.

    Way forward

    • Commitment towards data accessibility: We need to stress on data availability because this is the one area where a swift realignment is possible.
    • The more widely data are shared, the greater the likelihood of integration of the rapidly shifting scientific frontier with clinical practice.
    • Learning from the experience of South Africa: With the advantages of a relatively high-quality surveillance system among low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) countries, bolstered by a commitment towards transparency and data accessibility, South Africa’s rapid sharing allowed the world to prepare swiftly for the appearance of the highly mutated Omicron variant.
    • It is clear that pre-emptive decisions on vaccination and other measures could be made faster and better if more integrated data were available.

    Consider the question “Why availability and accessibility of data is important in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic? What are the challenges facing health data accessibility in India?”

    Conclusion

    Now, more than ever before is the time for us to urgently reassess our attitude towards data for public health purposes and the role of national health agencies in sharing data, generated with public funds, with scientists in India and across the world.

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