GS Paper: GS3-19.Disaster and Disaster Management.

Why in the News?

Recently, PM released the IMD’s Vision Document 2047, outlining a plan to achieve nearly perfect weather forecasts for up to three days and 90% accuracy for forecasts made five days ahead by 2047.

How can India achieve zero-error accuracy in forecasting disasters?

• Technological Advancements: The implementation of Mission Mausam involves deploying next-generation radars, satellites with advanced instruments, and high-performance computing systems. These tools are crucial for improving the precision of weather predictions.
• Data Assimilation and Modeling: Enhancing data assimilation processes and developing improved earth system models will contribute to better forecasting accuracy. The integration of AI/ML tools is expected to refine weather predictions further.
• Capacity Building: The initiative will also focus on building capacity within meteorological services to ensure that no severe weather events go undetected. This includes training personnel and enhancing operational frameworks for the timely dissemination of forecasts.

What are the steps taken by the Indian Government in the past year?

• Amendment of the Disaster Management Act: In August 2024, the government introduced the Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill, 2024, in the Lok Sabha.
  • This bill proposes the establishment of Urban Disaster Management Authorities for state capitals and large cities, the creation of disaster databases at national and state levels, and the formation of State Disaster Response Forces to strengthen disaster response capabilities.
• Investment in Urban Flood Mitigation: In August 2024, India announced plans to invest nearly $300 million over two years to mitigate urban flooding and conserve water in major cities, including Mumbai, Chennai, and Bengaluru.
  • The initiative focuses on expanding water bodies like lakes and constructing drainage systems to manage excessive rainfall during monsoon seasons.
• Addressing Urban Heat Islands: In June 2024, government officials acknowledged that rapid urbanization has turned cities into “heat traps,” exacerbating the effects of heatwaves.
  • Efforts are underway to implement heat action plans, which include provisioning drinking water, improving medical facilities, rescheduling outdoor work, and increasing green spaces to mitigate urban heat.
• Enhancement of Early Warning Systems: The government has been working to improve early warning systems for various natural disasters, including floods and heatwaves, to provide timely alerts and reduce the impact on vulnerable populations.
• Capacity Building and Training: There has been a focus on training and capacity building for disaster response teams at both national and state levels. For instance, In 2024, the NDRF organised a multi-agency mock drill in Assam to simulate a response to a major flood disaster.

What are the challenges in forecasting a disaster?

• Data Gaps and Limited Technology: Forecasting requires high-quality, real-time data from advanced technologies like satellite imagery, weather radars, and seismic sensors. However, data scarcity in remote areas or regions with underdeveloped infrastructure hampers accurate predictions.
  • Example: The 2013 Kedarnath floods in India resulted from a cloudburst that was not forecasted in time due to a lack of localized meteorological data and advanced radar systems.
• Unpredictability of Natural Phenomena: Some disasters, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, are inherently unpredictable because they result from sudden geological shifts.
  • Example: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami followed a massive earthquake, but the lack of a regional tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean made it impossible to alert affected countries in time.
• Challenges in Communication and Dissemination: Even when forecasts are accurate, ineffective communication of warnings to vulnerable populations due to language barriers, poor outreach, or lack of awareness can render forecasts ineffective.
  • Example: During Cyclone Tauktae (2021) in India, while the forecast was accurate, several fishermen ignored warnings to evacuate, leading to fatalities despite advanced cyclone prediction systems.

Way forward: 

• Strengthen Technological and Data Capabilities: Invest in localized weather stations, advanced radar systems, and seismic sensors in remote areas, while leveraging AI and machine learning for precise forecasting and real-time data integration.
• Enhance Community Awareness and Communication: Develop multilingual, accessible early warning systems and conduct regular public awareness campaigns to ensure timely dissemination and community readiness during disasters.

Mains PYQ:

Q Discuss the recent measures initiated in disaster management by the Government of India departing from the earlier reactive approach. (UPSC IAS/2020)

Why in the News?

Recently six people lost their lives in a stampede in Tirupati while waiting to collect tokens for Lord Venkateswara’s darshan.

How does human psychology lead to stampedes?

• Panic Response: Panic can spread rapidly through crowds, causing individuals to act irrationally. When one person begins to push forward out of fear or urgency, it creates a domino effect where others follow without understanding the situation.
• External Triggers: Events such as loud noises, sudden movements, or perceived threats (like a fire or an emergency) can trigger panic responses in crowds, leading to stampedes.
• Psychological Factors: Theories of collective behaviour suggest that in large groups, individuals may act against their own interests when panic sets in.
  • For instance, the desire to escape a perceived danger can override cooperative behaviour, leading to chaotic pushing and shoving.

How does the physical organisation of spaces contribute to stampedes?

• Narrow Exits and Blocked Pathways: Limited exits and narrow pathways can create bottlenecks during emergencies, making it difficult for individuals to evacuate quickly.
  • When a crowd is forced to funnel through a small area which leads to panic and chaos, increasing the likelihood of a stampede as people rush to escape.
• Poorly Designed Crowd Flow: Spaces that do not effectively manage crowd flow can exacerbate congestion.
  • Suppose different groups of people converge at the same point without clear guidance or separation that can lead to confusion and a surge of movement, triggering stampede conditions. Effective crowd management strategies are essential to ensure smooth movement.
• Inadequate Lighting and Visibility: Insufficient lighting can disorient attendees and hinder their ability to navigate the space safely. In low-light conditions, individuals may struggle to see exits or understand the crowd dynamics, leading to increased panic and disorder during critical moments, which can precipitate a stampede.

How to better prevent stampedes, or at least, mitigate their risks? (Way forward)

• Effective Crowd Management: Limit crowd size through pre-registration, schedule staggered entries, and organise queues with barriers and clear signage. Use real-time monitoring tools like CCTV and AI-based systems to manage crowd density.
• Improved Infrastructure and Emergency Readiness: Design venues with wide pathways, multiple exits, and clear evacuation routes. Provide on-site medical facilities and train staff in crowd control, first aid, and emergency response.
• Public Awareness and Technology Use: Educate attendees on safety protocols, and use digital tools like online ticketing and mobile alerts to prevent physical queues and guide the crowd calmly during emergencies.

Why in the News?

The Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill, 2024, raises serious concerns. Instead of addressing the shortcomings of the Disaster Management Act (DMA), 2005, the Bill reduces opportunities for participation, accountability, and efficient governance.

What are the lapses in the recent bill?

• Top-Down Terminology: The Bill employs terms like “monitor” and “guidelines,” which suggest a top-down approach, rather than fostering community engagement through terms like “supervision” and “direction.”
  • This undermines trust between authorities and local communities, which are crucial in disaster response.
• Neglect of Local Roles: While the Bill defines critical concepts such as ‘hazard’, ‘resilience’, and ‘vulnerability’, it fails to recognise the essential roles of local communities, panchayats, and NGOs in disaster management.
• Lack of Intersectional Consideration: The Bill does not address intersectional discrimination affecting vulnerable groups like women, disabled individuals, lower castes, and LGBTQIA communities. Ignoring these factors limits the Bill’s inclusivity and effectiveness.
• Absence of Accountability Mechanisms: The omission of performance evaluations for district authorities raises concerns about accountability. Without mechanisms to assess preparedness and response effectiveness, there is a risk of shifting blame onto individual philanthropic efforts during disasters.
• Exclusion of Law and Order Issues: By stating that ‘man-made causes’ do not include law and order matters, the Bill complicates the role of police in disaster management while still involving them in executive committees.
• Removal of Relief Standards: Key provisions regarding minimum standards of relief for disaster victims have been omitted from the Bill. This includes special provisions for vulnerable populations such as widows and orphans, which diminishes the support system for those affected by disasters.
• Centralisation of Power: The Bill centralises decision-making by transferring responsibilities from local executive committees to national authorities, potentially leading to inefficiencies and delays in disaster response.
• Neglect of Animal Welfare: The Bill does not address the impact of disasters on animals or include provisions for their welfare, which is a significant oversight given the scale of animal casualties during disasters.
• Urban Disaster Management Authority (UDMA): The rationale behind establishing a separate UDMA is unclear, raising questions about its effectiveness given existing municipal structures that may not adequately address urban flooding issues caused by poor planning.

What are the lessons learnt from a spectrum of areas?

• Community Engagement: Successful disaster responses have historically relied on local knowledge and community action.
  • For example, in Cyclone Aila (2009, Sundarbans): Local villagers and fisherfolk initiated rescue operations well before official disaster response teams could arrive, saving countless lives.
• Intersectionality Matters: Acknowledging diverse vulnerabilities ensures that disaster management strategies are comprehensive and equitable.
  • For example, Kerala Floods (2018): Specific interventions for women and children in relief camps improved health and hygiene outcomes, showcasing the value of targeted measures.
• Accountability is Crucial: Clear accountability mechanisms are necessary to ensure that authorities fulfil their responsibilities effectively.
  • For example, in Uttarakhand Flash Floods (2013): Lack of timely action by district authorities and poor preparedness exacerbated the disaster’s impact, underscoring the need for performance evaluations.

Way forward: 

• Strengthen Community Participation and Inclusivity: Amend the Bill to explicitly involve local communities, panchayats, and NGOs in disaster management.
• Promote Accountability and Regional Cooperation: Introduce performance evaluations for district authorities to ensure preparedness and effective disaster responses.

Mains PYQ:

Q Describe various measures taken in India for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) before and after signing ‘Sendai Framework for DRR (2015-2030)’. How is this framework different from ‘Hyogo Framework for Action, 2005’? (UPSC IAS/2018)