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GS Paper: GS3

  • Comparison between India- Bangladesh per capita GDP

    In IMF’s latest Economic Outlook, Bangladesh has overtaken India in GDP per capita. This has caught everyone’s attention.

    Do you know?

    • In the 2019 edition of Transparency International’s rankings, Bangladesh ranks a low 146 out of 198 countries (India is at 80th rank; a lower rank is worse off).
    • In the latest gender parity rankings, out of 154 countries mapped for it, Bangladesh is in the top 50 while India languishes at 112.

    Bangladesh surpasses India

    • Typically, countries are compared on the basis of GDP growth rate, or on absolute GDP.
    • For the most part since Independence, on both these counts, India’s economy has been better than Bangladesh’s.
    • This can be seen from Charts 1 and 2 that map GDP growth rates and absolute GDP — India’s economy has mostly been over 10 times the size of Bangladesh, and grown faster every year.
    • However, per capita income also involves another variable — the overall population — and is arrived at by dividing the total GDP by the total population.

    What made India lag behind?

    There are three reasons why India’s per capita income has fallen below Bangladesh this year:

    • The first thing to note is that Bangladesh’s economy has been clocking rapid GDP growth rates since 2004.
    • Secondly, over the same 15-year period, India’s population grew faster (around 21%) than Bangladesh’s population (just under 18%).
    • Lastly, the most immediate factor was the relative impact of Covid-19 on the two economies in 2020. While India’s GDP is set to reduce by 10%, Bangladesh’s is expected to grow by almost 4%.

    How has Bangladesh managed to grow so fast and so robustly?

    • Freshly start: In the initial years of its independence with Pakistan, Bangladesh struggled to grow fast. However, moving away from Pakistan also gave the country a chance to start afresh on its economic and political identity.
    • Diverse labour participation: As such, its labour laws were not as stringent and its economy increasingly involved women in its labour force. This can be seen in higher female participation in the labour force.
    • Textile boom: A key driver of growth was the garment industry where women workers gave Bangladesh the edge to corner the global export markets from which China retreated.
    • Less dependence on Agriculture: It also helps that the structure of Bangladesh’s economy is such that its GDP is led by the industrial sector, followed by the services sector. Both of these sectors create a lot of jobs and are more remunerative than agriculture.
    • Better social capital: Bangladesh improved a lot on several social and political metrics such as health, sanitation, financial inclusion, and women’s political representation.

    Retaining the lead

    • The IMF’s projections show that India is likely to grow faster next year and in all likelihood again surge ahead.
    • But, given Bangladesh’s lower population growth and faster economic growth, India and Bangladesh are likely to be neck and neck for the foreseeable future in terms of per capita income.

  • The Human Cost of Disasters Report (2000-2019)

    The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) recently published its report titled “The Human Cost of Disasters”.

    The report holds much significance for prelims as well as mains. Just for the sake of information, we must be aware of the report.

    Highlights of the report

    • 7,348 major disaster events had occurred between 2000 and 2019, claiming 1.23 lives, affecting 4.2 billion people and costing the global economy some $2.97 trillion.
    • Of this, China (577 events) and the US (467 events) reported the highest number of disaster events followed by India (321 events).
    • Climate change is to be blamed for the doubling of natural disasters in the past 20 years says the report.
    • There had also been an increase in geophysical events like earthquakes and tsunamis that are not related to climate but are particularly deadly.

    Back2Basics: UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

    • The UNDRR was established in 1999 as a dedicated secretariat to facilitate the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).
    • It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
    • It is mandated to serve as the focal point in the UN system for the coordination of disaster reduction and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities.
    • It has a vision to substantially reduce disaster risk and losses for a sustainable future with the mandate to act as the custodian of the Sendai Framework to which India is a signatory.

  • Next Generation Treasury Application (NGTA)

    In a bid to improve its functioning, the RBI has decided to move to the Next Generation Treasury Application (NGTA) for managing the country’s foreign exchange and gold reserves.

    Aspirants must make a note here:

    1.Authority managing FOREX in India

    2.Components of FOREX

    3.IMF’s SDRs

    4.Emergency use of FOREX

    What is NGTA?

    • The NGTA, according to the RBI, would be a web-based application providing scalability, manoeuvrability and flexibility to introduce new products and securities, besides supporting multi-currency transactions and settlements.
    • It would be supporting various transactions in asset classes like Fixed Income (FI), Forex (FX), Money Market (MM) and Gold.
    • It would be used for managing the foreign exchange reserves in a more efficient way, mitigate risk, achieve operational efficiencies, dealing in various asset classes and reporting.

    Objectives of NGTA

    The objectives of the proposed system include:

    • dealing in various asset classes (like Fixed Income Securities, Forex, Money Market, Gold);
    • portfolio management; workflow management; reserve management;
    • integration with various third-party and in-house systems; and dashboards, reports, widgets.

    Features of NGTA

    • The NGTA shall automatically fetch all the relevant details of a security/contract from a trading platform.
    • It shall support all internationally accepted conventions pertaining today count, interest computation, holiday logic, shut period-dividend, ex-dividend, cash flows, and odd coupon.
    • With respect to transactions in gold, the NGTA shall support purchase, sale, deposit (including rollover and premature withdrawal).
    • On maturity of a gold deposit, there can be exact, under or over delivery.

    Back2Basics: Forex Reserves

    • Reserve Bank of India Act and the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 set the legal provisions for governing the foreign exchange reserves.
    • RBI accumulates foreign currency reserves by purchasing from authorized dealers in open market operations.
    • The Forex reserves of India consist of below four categories:
    1. Foreign Currency Assets
    2. Gold
    3. Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)
    4. Reserve Tranche Position
    • The IMF says official Forex reserves are held in support of a range of objectives like supporting and maintaining confidence in the policies for monetary and exchange rate management including the capacity to intervene in support of the national or union currency.
    • It will also limit external vulnerability by maintaining foreign currency liquidity to absorb shocks during times of crisis or when access to borrowing is curtailed.

  • [pib] KAPILA Program

    Union Education Ministry has launched ‘KAPILA’ Kalam Program for IP Literacy and Awareness Education campaign to bring awareness towards the patenting of inventions.

    Remember one thing, ‘KAPILA’ Program is related to IP awareness. It sounds much like an animal husbandry related initiative.

    ‘KAPILA’ Program

    • KAPILA is an acronym for Kalam Program for IP (Intellectual Property) Literacy and Awareness.
    • Under this campaign, students pursuing education in higher educational institutions will get information about the correct system of the application process for patenting their invention and they will be aware of their rights.
    • The program will facilitate the colleges and institutions to encourage more and more students to file patents.

  • Issues in the Phased Manufacturing Policy

    The Production Linked Incentive Scheme, though ambitious in its goal suffers from several fundamental issues. The article discuses such issues.

    Background of the Phased Manufacturing Policy

    • The Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP) incentivised the manufacture of low value accessories initially, and then moved on to the manufacture of higher value components.
    • This was done by increasing the basic customs duty on the imports of these accessories or components.
    • The PMP was implemented with an aim to improve value addition in the country.
    • Recently, 16 firms in the mobile manufacturing sector were approved for the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to transform India into a major mobile manufacturing hub.
    • The PLI comes on the back of a phased manufacturing programme (PMP) that began in 2016-17.

    Issues to consider

    1) More imports and less value addition in India

    • Firms such as Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo, and OnePlus have invested in India, but mostly through their contract manufacturers.
    • As a result, production increased from $13.4 billion in 2016-17 to $31.7 billion in 2019-20.
    • But factory-level production data from the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) shows that more than 85% of the inputs were imported.
    • UN data for India, China, Vietnam, Korea and Singapore (2017-2019), show that except for India, all countries exported more mobile phone parts than imports.
    • More export than import by these countries indicate the presence of facilities that add value to these parts before exporting them.
    • India, on the other hand, imported more than it exported.
    • Therefore, while the PMP policy increased the value of domestic production, improvement in local value addition remains low.
    • The new PLI policy offers an incentive subject to thresholds of incremental investment and sales of manufactured goods.
    • Thus, focus remains on increasing value of domestic production, and not local value addition.

    2) Shift from China unlikely

    • India produced around 29 crore units of mobile phones for the year 2018-19; 94% of these were sold in the domestic market.
    • This implies that much of the incremental production and sales under the PLI policy will have to be for the export market.
    • Recently, a study by Ernst & Young showed that if the cost of production of a mobile phone is say 100 (without subsidies), then the effective cost (with subsidies and other benefits) of manufacturing mobile phone in China is 79.55, Vietnam, 89.05, and India (including PLI), 92.51.
    • So, it may be premature to expect a major chunk of mobile manufacturing to shift from China to India.

    3) PLI doesn’t strengthen the current export competitiveness

    • India’s mobile phone exports grew from $1.6 billion in 2018-19 to $3.8 billion in 2019-20, but per unit value declined from $91.1 to $87, respectively.
    • This shows that our export competitiveness seems to be in mobiles with lower selling price.
    • However, for foreign firms chosen under the PLI policy, the incentive will be at and above ₹15,000 ($204.65).
    • So, it is clear that the PLI policy does not strengthen our current export competitiveness in mobile phones.

    4) Absence of domestic firms

    • Domestic firms have been nearly wiped out from the Indian market.
    • So, their ability to take advantage of the PLI policy and grab a sizeable domestic market share seems difficult.
    • Domestic firms may have the route of exporting cheaper mobile phones to other low-income countries.
    • However, their performance in the last couple of years has not been promising.

    5) Importance of supply chain colocation

    • The six component firms that have been given approval under the ‘specified electronic components segment’do not complete the mobile manufacturing ecosystem.
    • For example, when Samsung set up shop in Vietnam, it relied heavily on its Korean suppliers which co-located with it to produce intermediate inputs, so much so that 63 among Samsung’s 67 suppliers then were foreign.
    •  Though Samsung is invested hugely in India, it has not colocated its supply chain in the country.
    • So, the foreign firms chosen under the PLI policy should be encouraged to colocate their supply ecosystems in the country.

    6) Complaint at WTO against PMP

    • In September 2019, Chinese Taipei contested the raise in tariffs under the PMP.
    • If the PMP is found to be World Trade Organization (WTO) non-compliant, then we may be flooded with imports of mobile phones.
    • This might make the local assembly of mobile phones unattractive.
    • This will affect the operations of the mobile investments done under the PMP.

    Conclusion

    The PMP policy, since 2016-17 has barely been helpful in raising domestic value addition in the industry even though value of production expanded considerably.

    B2BASICS

  • What is Debt-to-GDP Ratio?

    India’s public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at about 70% of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to almost 90% a/c to IMF.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Consider the following statements:

    1. Most of India’s external debt is owed by governmental entities.
    2. All of India’s external debt is denominated in US dollars.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Why such a spike?

    • The increase in public spending, in response to COVID-19, and the fall in tax revenue and economic activity, will make public debt jump by 17 percentage points to almost 90% of GDP.

    What is Debt-to-GDP Ratio?

    • The Debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio between a country’s government debt and its gross domestic product (GDP).
    • It measures the financial leverage of an economy.
    • A country able to continue paying interest on its debt-without refinancing, and without hampering economic growth, is generally considered to be stable.
    • A country with a high debt-to-GDP ratio typically has trouble paying off external debts (also called “public debts”), which are any balances owed to outside lenders.
    • In such scenarios, creditors are apt to seek higher interest rates when lending. Extravagantly high debt-to-GDP ratios may deter creditors from lending money altogether.
    • A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates an economy that produces and sells goods and services sufficient to pay back debts without incurring further debt.
    • Geopolitical and economic considerations – including interest rates, war, recessions, and other variables – influence the borrowing practices of a nation and the choice to incur further debt.

  • The RBI tunes in to the economy

    The article analyses the recent changes signalled by the RBI in its policymaking.

    Changes in the economic policymaking

    • Recently the U.S. Fed declared that the Fed will not let inflation stand in the way of maximising employment.
    • The reason for this was that the Phillips Curve, the relationship between inflation and unemployment, may no longer hold in the U.S. economy.
    • This is significant, given that the Anglo-American economics has been dominated by Phillips Curve.

    Why there was need for change in inflation targeting

    • Data show that the model that currently guides India’s inflation control strategy may be quite irrelevant.
    • This is seen in the recent behaviour of inflation.
    • We know that output contracted by more than 23% in the first quarter of this year.
    • Despite this staggering decline the inflation rate did not change,
    • This was contrary to experience that inflation reflects an ‘over heating’ economy, one growing too fast in relation to its potential.
    • This view represents the RBI’s official understanding of inflation, and presumably forms the basis of its policy of inflation targeting.
    • It was endorsed by the Government of India when it legislated the modern monetary policy framework to enable the RBI to pursue inflation targeting.
    • If the Phillips Curve, which the RBI’s approach internalises, exists, inflation should have decreased as India’s economy contracted during the lockdown.
    • The current inflation targeting mechanism had been imagined with developing economies in mind.
    • Inflation targeting mechanism is based on the idea that food prices are an important determinant of inflation along with imported inflation.
    • Accordingly, a macroeconomic contraction need not lower inflation.

    Role of food prices in India

    • A recent working paper of the RBI’s research department suggested that a more eclectic model than the one that underlies inflation targeting does a better job of forecasting inflation in India.
    • This model accepts a role for food prices, a possibility that is missed when embracing economic models developed in the western hemisphere, where food prices have stopped trending upwards over half a century ago.

    Conclusion

    The RBI shifting away from its rigid inflation targeting policy is in tune with the time and signals that the central bank is finally alive to India’s economy.

    Back2Basics: What is Philips Curve?

    • The Phillips curve is an economic concept, stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship.
    • The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment.
    • However, the original concept has been somewhat disproven empirically due to the occurrence of stagflation in the 1970s, when there were high levels of both inflation and unemployment.

  • New Shephard Rocket System

    New Shephard, a rocket system meant to take tourists to space successfully completed its seventh test launch.

    Note the features of the Karman Line. It is a new terminolgy in our recent space vocab.

    What is New Shephard?

    • New Shephard has been named after astronaut Alan Shephard, the first American to go to space, and offers flights to space over 100 km above the Earth and accommodation for payloads.
    • Essentially, it is a rocket system that has been designed to take astronauts and research payloads past the Karman line – the internationally recognised boundary of space.
    • The idea is to provide easier and more cost-effective access to space meant for purposes such as academic research, corporate technology development and entrepreneurial ventures among others.
    • It is built by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s Space Company called Blue Origin.
    • In 2018, Blue Origin was one of the ten companies selected by NASA to conduct studies and advance technologies to collect process and use space-based resources for missions to the Moon and Mars.

    How does it work?

    • The rocket system consists of two parts, the cabin or capsule and the rocket or the booster.
    • The cabin can accommodate experiments from small mini payloads up to 100 kg.
    • The cabin is designed for six people and sits atop a 60-feet tall rocket and separates from it before crossing the Karman line, after which both vehicles fall back to the Earth.
    • The system is a fully reusable, vertical takeoff and vertical landing space vehicle that accelerates for about 2.5 minutes before the engine cuts off.
    • After separating from the booster, the capsule free falls in space, while the booster performs an autonomously controlled vertical landing back to Earth.
    • The capsule, on the other hand, lands back with the help of parachutes.

    Back2Basics: Karman line

    • The Karman line is an attempt to define a boundary between Earth’s atmosphere and outer space.
    • The line is named after Theodore von Kármán (1881–1963), a Hungarian American engineer and physicist, who was active primarily in aeronautics and astronautics.
    • He was the first person to calculate the altitude at which the atmosphere becomes too thin to support aeronautical flight and arrived at 83.6 km (51.9 miles) himself.

    Locating the line

    • The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines Karman Line as the altitude of 100 kilometres (62 miles; 330,000 feet) above Earth’s mean sea level.
    • However, other organizations do not use this definition. There is no international law defining the edge of space, and therefore the limit of national airspace.
    • For instance, the US Air Force and NASA define the limit to be 50 miles (80 km) above sea level.
    • The line is approximately at the turbopause, above which atmospheric gases are not well-mixed.

  • Places in news: Zojila Tunnel

    Union Transport Ministry has launched the first blasting for construction-related work at the Zojila tunnel that will provide all-year connectivity between Srinagar valley and Leh.

    These days various Himalayan passes and tunnels are overwhelmingly seen in news. Open your Atlas and try to spot all of them for now and once before the exam.

    Zojila Tunnel

    • The Zojila is set to be Asia’s longest bi-directional tunnel.
    • It will connect Srinagar, Dras, Kargil and Leh via a tunnel through the famous Zojila Pass.
    • Located at more than 11,500 feet above sea level, the all-weather Zojila tunnel will be 14.15 km long and ensure road connectivity even during winters.
    • It will make the travel on the 434-km Srinagar-Kargil-Leh Section of NH-1 free from avalanches, enhance safety and reduce the travel time from more than 3 hours to just 15 minutes.
    • The speed limit inside the tunnel is likely to be the same as in the Atal tunnel – 80 kmph.

    Its significance

    • The project holds strategic significance as Zojila Pass is situated at an altitude of 11,578 feet on the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh National Highway and remains closed during winters due to heavy snowfall.
    • At present, it is one of the most dangerous stretches in the world to drive a vehicle and this project is also geo-strategically sensitive.

  • Feasibility of Export Driven Growth for India

    To aim for achieving high growth rate by focusing only on the domestic consumption and domestic demand could result in failure. The article argues for the focus on export to achieve the objective of growth.

    Domestic-demand led growth and its limitations

    • The debate in India has focused on domestic-demand led growth.
    • But there is no known model of domestic demand/consumption-led growth, anywhere that has delivered quick, sustained, and high rates of economic growth for developing countries.
    • India’s GDP growth of over 6 per cent after 1991 was associated with real export growth of about 11 per cent.
    • Moreover, domestic-demand led growth requires more public spending, tax cuts, private investment, and/or financial sector reforms: which is not feasible in the present context due to pandemic.
    • Consumption growth will be limited by the fact that household debt has grown rapidly in the last few years.
    • Consumption now can grow only if incomes grow.
    • Government spending could be a short run option, but COVID has limited that possibility.

    Why India should not follow advanced countries’ fiscal policies

    • India’s interest rates are not at zero and are unlikely to be so because of persistent inflation.
    • India’s borrowing is still considered risky which is reflected in ratings.
    • The favourable interest rate-growth differential that supports expansionary policy in the advanced countries is absent in India.
    • India may well have scope for expansionary fiscal policy in the short run but not as a medium run growth strategy.

    Why India should focus on export

    • Given all the above factors, India does not have the luxury of abandoning export orientation because the alternatives are so limited.
    • India’s market is too small to sustain any kind of serious import substitution strategy.
    • Small size of the market makes it difficult to offer investors the domestic market as bait and incentivising them to export.
    • India’s big, unexploited opportunities are in unskilled labour exports.
    • India is vastly under-exporting relative to its labour force.
    • Because China’s wages are rising as it has become richer, it has vacated about $140 billion in exports in unskilled-labour intensive sectors.
    • Post-COVID, the move of investors away from China will probably accelerate to hedge against supply chain disruptions.
    • India did not take advantage of the first China opportunity, now, a second opportunity stemming from geo-politics should be seized by India.
    • As India contemplates atmanirbharta, two deeper advantages of export orientation are always worth remembering.
    • 1) Foreign demand will always be bigger than domestic demand for any country.
    • 2) If domestic producers are competitive internationally, they will be competitive domestically and domestic consumers and firms will also benefit.

    Why openness of ecnonomy is important

    • Exploiting this opportunity in unskilled exports requires more not less openness.
    • To be internationally competitive, many parts and components have to be imported from so many different sources.
    • One indicator is the foreign or import contribution to exports.
    • China and Vietnam at the time of their export boom in textiles and clothing suggests that exports were highly dependent on imports (between 40 and 45 per cent).
    • In contrast, India’s import share is about 16 per cent.
    • Achieving Chinese and Vietnamese levels of success will therefore require greater imports and openness.

     Way forward

    • Export success will require genuine easing of costs of trading and doing business in India.
    • In the case of clothing, a key policy change in India will be to eliminate tariffs on all inputs. 
    • It will also require signing free trade agreements with Europe that still impose high duties on India’s clothing export, while Bangladeshi and Vietnamese exports which enjoy preferential access to world markets.

    Consider the question “As India contemplates atmanirbharta, we should not forget that export dynamism is essential for the rapid and sustained high economic growth. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    In sum, resisting the misleading allure of the domestic market, India should zealously boost export performance and deploy all means to achieve that. Pursuing rapid export growth in manufacturing and services should be an obsession with self-evident justification.