Mentor’s Comment:  Israel’s bold “Rising Lion” operation against Iran on June 13, 2025, is a major turning point in Middle East politics. By killing top Iranian military and nuclear officials and bombing over 100 key sites, Israel has taken one of the most serious actions in its long rivalry with Iran. Both countries have described it as a historic moment, showing how serious the situation is. This is more than just a military move — it could have huge effects on the region and the world, including risks to energy supplies, rising tensions, and economic problems. It raises important questions about whether such surprise attacks can really prevent conflict or if they make things worse in an already unstable region.

 Today’s editorial focuses on the analysis of the Israeli attack on Iran and its impact. This content is very relevant to GS Paper II (International Relations) Mains.

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Why in the News?

Recently, the Israeli military launched the “Rising Lion” operation against Iran, which is a very big step up in tensions in the Middle East.

What are the strategic objectives behind Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation against Iran?

• Neutralizing Nuclear and Missile Capabilities: Israel seeks to dismantle Iran’s ability to develop or deploy nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. Eg: Over 200 Israeli Air Force jets attacked 100+ targets, including nuclear sites and missile installations.
• Eliminating Key Military Leadership: The operation targets Iran’s military command to disrupt strategic coordination and weaken retaliation capabilities. Eg: High-ranking officials like the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and Revolutionary Guard commanderswere assassinated.
• Asserting Regional Military Superiority: By launching a preemptive, technology-driven blitzkrieg, Israel aims to reinforce its deterrence and reshape regional power dynamics. Eg: The campaign follows 21 months of pressure on Iran and its proxies, including provocative assassinationsand systematic airstrikes.

Why has the Israeli campaign raised concerns about regional and global stability?

• Risk of Regional Escalation: The conflict could widen if Iran retaliates or drags its proxies into action, destabilizing the Middle East. Eg: The Sunni Arab world fears blowback through attacks on oil facilities, incitement of Shia minorities, or revival of terrorist networks like ISIS.
• Threat to Global Oil Supply Chains: Hostilities near key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can disrupt global energy flows. Eg: About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait; any Iranian attempt to block it could trigger oil price surgesand inflation.
• Economic Fallout and Global Instability: A prolonged or messy war could amplify existing economic challenges like inflation, supply chain shocks, and geopolitical tension. Eg: The conflict may cause stock market instability, worsen the impact of other regional conflicts, and reverse global growth momentum.

How has U.S. foreign policy influenced the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict?

• Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: The U.S. pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, dismantling diplomatic progress and increasing Iran’s nuclear activity. Eg: Under Trump 1.0, the U.S. exited the deal and applied “maximum pressure” sanctions, leading to heightened tensions and mistrust.
• Economic Strangulation Strategy: U.S. actions aimed to weaken Iran economically and diplomatically, increasing regional hostility. Eg: The U.S. pressured Saudi Arabia to flood the oil market, reducing Iran’s oil revenues, and pushed the IAEAto condemn Iran before the Israeli attack.
• Military and Diplomatic Alignments: The U.S. built strategic ties and military alignments with Israel and other regional players to isolate Iran. Eg: The June 12 IAEA resolution, U.S. airstrikes on al-Houthis, and renewed ties with Pakistan signal coordinated steps that emboldened Israeli action.

What are the implications of the conflict for the Sunni Arab world and global oil supply chains?

• Strait of Hormuz Vulnerability: The conflict raises the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy chokepoint. Eg: Nearly 20% of global oil supply passes through this strait, and Iran may block or threaten its use in retaliation.
• Shia-Sunni Sectarian Tensions: Iran could incite Shia minorities in Sunni-ruled countries, destabilizing domestic security. Eg: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain fear internal unrest or uprisings, particularly in Shia-dominated regions.
• Proxy Warfare and Regional Blowback: Iran-backed militias or proxies may target Sunni governments or U.S. allies, increasing regional instability. Eg: Attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias could threaten infrastructure in UAE or Saudi Arabia.
• Oil Price Surge and Inflation: Threats to supply lines or actual conflict could lead to global oil price spikes, impacting inflation. Eg: Fear of escalation alone can push prices upward, hurting import-dependent economies like India, and driving global market volatility.
• Policy Dilemma for Sunni Arab States: Sunni states face a strategic dilemma—balancing between opposing Iran and avoiding regional escalation. Eg: Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are wary of openly backing Israel, fearing retaliation and regional backlash.

What could be the impact on India? 

• Oil Price Volatility and Economic Stress: Rising tensions threaten energy security, as India imports over 85% of its crude oil. Eg: A spike in Brent crude prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would increase India’s current account deficit, raise fuel prices, and trigger inflation.
• Geopolitical Balancing Challenge: India must maintain a delicate diplomatic balance between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. Eg: India has strong strategic ties with Israel (defence and tech) but also energy and connectivity interests with Iran (e.g., Chabahar Port), making neutrality harder to maintain.
• Threat to Diaspora and Trade Routes: Escalation could impact the safety of the Indian diaspora in the Gulf and disrupt maritime trade routes. Eg: Over 8 million Indians live in West Asia. Any conflict-induced displacement or shipping disruptions through the Persian Gulf would hurt remittances and exports.

Way forward: 

• Strengthen Energy Diversification and Strategic Reserves: India should diversify oil import sources (e.g., from Latin America, Africa) and expand strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against supply shocks. Eg: Fast-track deals with Brazil, UAE, and the U.S., while increasing domestic oil storage capacity.
• Pursue Proactive and Balanced Diplomacy: India must engage in quiet diplomacy with both Israel and Iran, reaffirming strategic ties without compromising neutrality. Eg: Leverage platforms like BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and G20 to promote regional de-escalation and safeguard Indian interests.

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