The Crisis In The Middle East
Operation Kaveri to evacuate stranded citizens from Sudan
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Op Kaveri
Mains level : Not Much
India has launched “Operation Kaveri” to evacuate its citizens from war-torn Sudan.
What is Operation Kaveri?
- It is the recent series of evacuations held by India over the last few years to rescue its nationals in crisis-hit countries. India rescued its nationals last year from war-hit Ukraine and Afghanistan.
- The operation was launched in response to the conflict and breakdown of essential services in Sudan that had brought the country to a standstill.
- India has positioned two transport aircraft of the IAF in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah and a naval ship at a key port in Sudan as part of its contingency plans to evacuate its stranded nationals.
Behind the name ‘Kaveri’
- The choice of naming this operation as ‘Operation Kaveri’ has a lot of significance.
- Kaveri is one of the major Indian rivers flowing through the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
- The river is sacred to the people of the region and is worshipped as the Goddess Kaveriamma (mother Kaveri).
- Rivers reach their destination irrespective of barriers. It’s like a mother who will ensure she will bring her children back to safety.
About Sudan
- Sudan is a country located in North Africa, bordered by Egypt to the north, Libya to the northwest, Chad to the west, the Central African Republic to the southwest, South Sudan to the south, Ethiopia to the southeast, and Eritrea to the east.
- It is the third-largest country in Africa and has a diverse population of around 43 million people.
- According to the World Bank, around 46% of the population lives below the poverty line, and many Sudanese people struggle to access basic services such as healthcare, education, and clean water.
What is the crisis all about?
- Sudan is facing a crisis due to fighting between two rival military factions.
- The conflict involves the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
- The fighting began in April 2022 after tensions rose following the coup that saw the two factions topple a civilian government in October 2021.
- The conflict began when an internationally-backed plan to launch a new transition with civilian parties was floated.
- Under the plan, both the army and the RSF had to cede power, but two issues were contentious: the formal placing of the army under civilian oversight and the timetable for the RSF to be integrated into the regular armed forces.
Global Implications of the Conflict
- The volatile region, which borders the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa, could be destabilized if the fighting continues.
- The conflict in Sudan has the potential to cause a refugee crisis, with people fleeing the country to escape the violence and instability.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Israel-Palestinian violence on West Bank soars
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank, Gaza
Mains level : Israel-Palestine Issue
US has urged Israel and the Palestinians to ease tensions amid a spike in violence that has put the West Bank region on edge.
Where is West Bank?
- The West Bank is a landlocked territory near the coast of the Mediterranean in Western Asia that forms the main bulk of the Palestinian territories.
- It is bordered by Jordan and the Dead Sea to the east and by Israel to the south, west, and north.
Point of discussion: Anti-Semitism
- Anti-Semitism (hatred against Jews) is an officially stated policy of many theocratic countries (created by divine orders of religion).
- This includes entire Arab world, the self-proclaimed caliphate ‘Turkiye’ and even Pakistan.
- Jews, the micro-minority religion of the world were denied access to their homeland.
What is the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
- The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
- Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
- The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
- Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
- The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs. The land at the time was called Palestine.
- In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
- Arabs resisted it which led to violence.
Jews into West Bank: Arab hinterland in Israel
- Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from 1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
- It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
- In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
- The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
- The mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
- In 1936, the UK government recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.
How did the issue escalate?
- In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
- It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
- The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.
Israel’s independence
- In May 1948, Israel declared its independence. This was eye-pricking development for Arabs.
- The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
- When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
- It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.
Resolving the conflict
Ans. Two-state solution
- The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
- However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
- As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.
Why it hasn’t worked out?
There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:
[1] Borders
- There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
- Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
- In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
- Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
- Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.
[2] Question of Jerusalem
- Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
- The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
- Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.
[3] Refugees
- A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
- They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
- The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.
[4] Security
- Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
- Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
- Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
- This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
- A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
- For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.
Why the two-state solution is needed?
- Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
- A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
- At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.
Moral reasoning for a two-state solution
- It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
- It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
- Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
- Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.
Way forward
- India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
- This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.
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The Crisis In The Middle East
Israel and Lebanon reach an Agreement on Maritime Border
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Israeli region for mapping
Mains level : Not Much
Israel has reached a US-brokered agreement with Lebanon to settle their long-disputed maritime border. This has been seen as a historic deal.
Israel-Lebanon Boundary Issue
- The draft agreement aims to settle Israel and Lebanon’s competing claims over offshore gas fields in the region.
- A major source of friction was the Karish gas field, which Israel insisted fell entirely within its waters and was not a subject of negotiation.
- The issue is a little over a decade old, after the two countries declared overlapping boundaries in 2011 in the Mediterranean Sea.
- Since both countries have been technically at war, the United Nations was asked to mediate.
- The issue gained significance after Israel discovered two gas fields off its coast a decade ago, which experts had believed could help turn it into an energy exporter.
Key terms of the Agreement
- The agreement seeks to resolve a territorial dispute in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in an area that Lebanon wants to explore for natural gas.
- The gas field in question is located on the maritime boundary between the two countries and this agreement would allow both countries to get royalties from the gas.
- It also sets a border between the maritime waters of Lebanon and Israel for the first time.
Why is this agreement signed?
- Averting terror threats: The agreement is expected to avert the immediate threat of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, after fears of escalation if negotiations fell apart.
- Energy exploitation: The agreement will create new sources of energy and income for both countries, particularly important for Lebanon, which is facing a crippling energy and financial crises.
- Alternative energy for Europe: It could also have a potentially wider impact: it would likely provide Europe with a potential new source of gas amid energy shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What the agreement does not address?
Ans. Blue Line Issue
- The agreement does not touch on the shared land border between Israel and Lebanon, which is still disputed, but where both countries are committed to a ceasefire.
- This border is also called the Blue Line, a boundary that was drawn up by the UN after Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000.
- This land border is currently patrolled by the United Nations forces.
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The Crisis In The Middle East
Israel vs. Palestine Row over Gaza
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank, Gaza
Mains level : Israel-Palestine Issue
India has termed Gaza violence as grave concern and called for immediate resumption of talk between Israel and Palestine.
Here we explain the roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the two-state solution and why it has not materialized.
What is the Israel-Palestine conflict?
- The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
- Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
- The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
- Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
- The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs.
- The land at the time was called Palestine.
- In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
- Arabs resisted it which led to violence.
When did the migration begin?
- Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
- It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
- In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
- The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
- The Mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
- In 1936, the UK government, recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.
Issue at the UN
- In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
- It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
- The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.
Israel declares independence
- In May 1948, Israel declared its independence.
- The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
- When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
- It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.
The two-state solution and why it hasn’t worked out
- The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
- However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
- As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.
There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:
[1] Borders
- There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
- Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
- In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
- Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
- Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.
[2] Question of Jerusalem
- Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
- The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
- Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.
[3] Refugees
- A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
- They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
- The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.
[4] Security
- Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
- Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
- Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
- This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
- A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
- For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.
Why the two-state solution is needed?
- Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
- A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
- At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.
Moral reasoning too for a two-state solution
- It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
- It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
- Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
- Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.
Way forward
- India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
- This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.
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The Crisis In The Middle East
Places in news: Aegean Islands
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Aegean Sea
Mains level : NA
Turkey has warned Greece to demilitarise islands in the Aegean Sea.
What is the news?
- Turkey says Greece has been building a military presence in violation of treaties that guarantee the unarmed status of the Aegean islands.
- It argues the islands were ceded to Greece on the condition they remained demilitarized.
Where is the Aegean Sea?
- The Aegean Sea has a surface area of about 215,000 km2 and a depth of 3,544 m at the deepest end.
- It has a maximum length of about 700 km and a width of 400 km.
- The Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits connect the Aegean Sea to the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea respectively.
- The Aegean is subdivided into the Myrtoan Sea and the Thracian Sea and lies on the African and Eurasian tectonic plates’ collision path.
Control of the region
- The sea is situated between the Anatolia and Balkan peninsulas and lies between Turkey and Greece.
- Nine out of 12 of Greece’s administrative regions border the sea.
- Turkish provinces, such as Balikesir, Canakkale, Edirne, and Izmir, borders the Aegean to the east.
- The Aegean Sea is a source of dispute and controversy between Turkey and Greece, affecting their relationship since the 1970s.
What is the dispute?
- Greece and Turkey are NATO allies.
- However they have a history of disputes over a range of issues, including mineral exploration in the eastern Mediterranean and rival claims in the Aegean Sea.
- Greece maintains Turkey has deliberately misinterpreted the treaties and says it has legal grounds to defend itself following hostile actions by Ankara.
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The Crisis In The Middle East
Crisis at the Belarus-Poland Border
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Not much
Mains level : Global illegal migrants crisis
Thousands of migrants have flocked to Belarus’ border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe.
Background of the crisis
- Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Lukashenko a sixth term in office.
- The opposition and the West rejected the result.
- Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
- The European Union and the US reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.
Immediate trigger
- The restrictions were toughened after an incident when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested a dissident journalist.
- The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies.
- It cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
Infused by migration
- The EU sanctions deprived Lukashenko government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants.
- Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Rising tensions
- Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
- Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches.
- Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.
Reservations by EU
- The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions.
- Lukashenko denies the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.
What has been the response by EU countries?
- Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with small groups of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus.
- It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.
- Polish authorities prevented hundreds of attempts by migrants to cross reporting many deaths.
- The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
What is Russia’s role?
- Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped rise Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
- Russia considers the migrant flows resulting from the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
- It challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
- At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.
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The Crisis In The Middle East
Jordan Crisis and its significance for the Arab Region
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Not Much
Mains level : Geopolitics in Arabian Peninsula
The royal household in Jordan has recently seen intense drama, with the King’s popular half-brother and former crown prince was placed under de facto house arrest.
Study the map; especially, the Israel-Jordan border and Dead Sea.
Signs of a Coup
- Jordanian government statements have has stated that there had been an attempted coup to destabilize the country, mentioning unnamed “foreign entities” involved in the plot.
- The events have thus put a spotlight on Jordan’s unique position as one of the most stable countries in the Arab world, and given rise to questions about who could stand to benefit from the alleged coup.
Jordan’s stability matters
- Jordan, which this year celebrates 100 years since its creation after World War I, has for decades remained stable in a part of the world that is prone to conflict and political uncertainty.
- For its allies in the West and in the Gulf, Jordan is a strategic partner which can be relied upon for furthering political objectives in the region, which includes war-torn Syria and Iraq as well as conflict-prone Israel and Palestine.
- The support of Jordanian intelligence has proven critically important in the fight against terrorism.
- Though impoverished, the country of about a crore people has served as a haven for refugees in the conflict-ridden region.
The asylum giver
- After the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967, Jordan received waves of refugees, to the point that about half of Jordan’s population today is made up of Palestinians.
- It has also welcomed refugees after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, and currently hosts over 10 lakh from Syria, where a protracted civil war is going on.
- Jordan is also considered important to any future peace deal between Israel and Palestine.
How does Jordan get along with regional powers?
(1) West
- Traditionally, Jordan has maintained close relations with the US, and the fellow Sunni Muslim powers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together stand against Shia Iran.
- It also has diplomatic relations with Israel, and the two countries have been bound by a peace treaty since 1994.
(2) Within Gulf
- In recent years, however, Jordan’s relations with the Saudis and UAE have seen ups and downs.
- It has been particularly since the rise of their respective crown prince’s Mohammed bin Salman (known by initials MBS) and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ).
- One of the points of friction was Saudi-UAE’s blockade of Qatar in 2017.
- It caused further consternation in Saudi and Emirati circles by maintaining strong ties with Turkey.
(3) Ties with Israel
- Jordan’s role as the region’s interlocutor has also diminished since last year, after the UAE normalized relations with Israel.
What have the powers said of the alleged coup?
- Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expressed full support for King Abdullah. The US has called the ruler a “key partner”.
- To drive home the point, Saudi Arabia sent its foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, to Jordan’s capital Amman to express complete solidarity with Jordan’s King and his government.
- Saudi and the UAE have little to gain by destabilizing Jordan, a country that has long served as a dependable ally.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Morocco to normalize ties with Israel
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Middle Easet
Mains level : The gulf and anti-semitism
Morocco has become the fourth Arab nation this year to recognise Israel after interventions by the US.
Must read:
Israel and Morocco
- After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, Morocco is the fourth Arab State since August to commit to establishing diplomatic relations with the Jewish State.
- Morocco and Israel had respectively maintained liaison offices in Tel Aviv and Rabat in the 1990s, before closing them in 2000.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu anticipated direct flights between the two countries soon.
- Palestinian officials condemned the agreement, saying it encouraged Israel’s denial of their rights.
For the sake of Western Sahara
- The White House said the US would recognise Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara as part of the deal with Israel.
- The US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory.
- A former Spanish colony, it was annexed by Morocco in 1975.
- Since then it has been the subject of a long-running territorial dispute between Morocco and its indigenous Saharawi people.
- Morocco says it has always been part of its territory, while the African Union recognizes it as an independent state.
- A 16-year-long insurgency ended with an UN-brokered truce in 1991 and the promise of a referendum on independence, which has yet to take place.
Ground realities
- The latest move by the Trump administration will not necessarily have an immediate impact on the ground because the dispute is seen as greater than the whims of the American president.
- However, Trump’s backing of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over Western Sahara is a big deal because it diminishes the hope of a people who have aspired for the independence of that territory for decades.
- The UN is still mandated to oversee a referendum for the independence of Western Sahara – although this hasn’t materialized since 1991.
Why Arab countries are normalizing their ties with Israel?
- Economics: The Gulf States see opportunities for trade and more. The deal helps the ambitious gulf, who has built themselves into military power as well as a place to do business.
- Common enemy: The UAE has used its already well-equipped armed forces in Libya and Yemen. But its most serious potential enemy is Iran, just on the other side of the Gulf.
- For the Iron wall: Normalizing its relations with gulf is a genuine achievement for the Israelis who is a believer in the strategy first described in the 1920s of an “Iron Wall” between the Jewish state and the Arabs.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Killing of Iranian nuclear scientist and its implications
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : JCPOA
Mains level : Paper 2- Peace and stability in the middle east
The assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientist has implication for the future of JCPOA and the peace and the stability of the region. The article explains why.
Context
- Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist who led Iran’s nuclear weapons programme until it was disbanded, was assassinated last week.
JCPOA and U.S. Presidential election’s link with the
- Assassinations in which Israeli hands were suspected had stopped after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed.
- The U.S. withdrew from the agreement when Trump became the U.S. President.
- In retaliation of the withdrawal, Iran began enriching uranium and stockpiling it beyond JCPOA limits.
- With that, the strategy of targeted assassinations seems to be back.
- This strategy has assumed urgency with the election of Joe Biden in the U.S., who has expressed his desire to return to the JCPOA.
Understanding the Israel link
- Israel government is apprehensive that Mr. Biden will imperil Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
- The assassination of Fakhrizadeh appears to be part of a larger Israeli plan in conjunction with Saudi Arabia to force the U.S. into taking military action against Iran.
- An Israeli-Saudi nexus on this issue, when combined with President Trump’s, could culminate in a major military strike on Iran before he leaves office.
Win-win situation for Israel
- If the Iranian government launches revenge attacks Mr. Netanyahu would be able to persuade the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- If Iran shows restraint, Israel would have shown up the Iranian regime as weak while augmenting anti-American feelings in the country.
- That anti-American feeling would make it difficult for the Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran on reviving JCPOA.
Conclusion
The fallout of the assassination, while benefiting Israel, will add to the instability in the region.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Armenia, Azerbaijan agree on peace deal
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Nagorno-Karabakh region
Mains level : Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a deal with Russia to end fierce clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh after a string of Azerbaijani victories in its fight to retake the disputed region.
Ending up the bloodshed
- During the course of the conflict, over 1200 have lost their lives as per the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, while thousands have been displaced.
- Since the conflict started in September, multiple ceasefire agreements have been signed between the two sides, but none so far have been successful.
- The deal is meant to end the conflict between the two nations.
- Russia’s role in the conflict has been somewhat opaque since it supplies arms to both countries and is in a military alliance with Armenia called the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
What is the Nagorno-Karabakh region?
- Straddling western Asia and Eastern Europe, Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but most of the region is controlled by Armenian separatists.
- It has been part of Azerbaijan territory since the Soviet era.
- When the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s, Armenia’s regional parliament voted for the region’s transfer to Armenia; the Soviet authorities turned down the demand.
- Years of clashes followed between Azerbaijan forces and Armenian separatists.
- The violence lasted into the 1990s, leaving tens and thousands dead and displacing hundreds of thousands.
- In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, by which time ethnic Armenians had taken control of the region.
Consider this PYQ:
Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Who controls it?
- While the area remains in Azerbaijan, it is today governed by separatist Armenians who have declared it a republic called the “Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast”.
- While the Armenian government does not recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, it supports the region politically and militarily.
Ethnicity and the conflict
- Ethnic tensions from decades ago have a crucial role in the dispute.
- While the Azeris claim that the disputed region was under their control in known history, Armenians maintain that Karabakh was a part of the Armenian kingdom.
- At present, the disputed region consists of a majority Armenian Christian population, even though it is internationally recognised as a part of Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.
The Crisis In The Middle East
What’s behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes?
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Causacus region mapping
Mains level : Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region
Fresh clashes erupted on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, threatening to push the countries back to war 26 years after a ceasefire was reached.
Try this PYQ:
Q.Turkey is located between-
(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea
(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea
(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea
(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea
The conflict
- The largely mountainous and forested Nagorno-Karabakh, home for some 150,000 people, is at the centre of the conflict.
- Nagorno-Karabakh is located within Azerbaijan but is populated, mostly, by those of Armenian ethnicity (and mostly Christian compared to the Shia Muslim majority Azerbaijan).
- The conflict can be traced back to the pre-Soviet era when the region was at the meeting point of Ottoman, Russian and the Persian empires.
A legacy of soviet era
- Once Azerbaijan and Armenia became Soviet Republics in 1921, Moscow gave Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan but offered autonomy to the contested region.
- In the 1980s, when the Soviet power was receding, separatist currents picked up in Nagorno-Karabakh.
- In 1988, the national assembly voted to dissolve the region’s autonomous status and join Armenia.
- But Baku suppressed such calls, which led to a military conflict.
- When Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the clashes led to an open war in which tens of thousands of people were killed.
- The war lasted till 1994 when both sides reached a ceasefire (they are yet to sign a peace treaty and the border is not clearly demarcated).
Issue over control
- By that time, Armenia had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh and handed it to Armenian rebels. The rebels have declared independence, but have not won recognition from any country.
- The region is still treated as a part of Azerbaijan by the international community, and Baku wants to take it back.
What is the strategic significance of the region?
- The energy-rich Azerbaijan has built several gas and oil pipelines across the Caucasus (the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) to Turkey and Europe.
- This includes the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (with a capacity of transporting 1.2 billion barrels a day), the Western Route Export oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline.
- Some of these pipelines pass close to the conflict zone (within 16 km of the border). In an open war between the two countries, the pipelines could be targeted, which would impact energy supplies.
What’s Turkey’s role?
- Turkey has historically supported Azerbaijan and has had a troublesome relationship with Armenia.
- In the 1990s, during the war, Turkey closed its border with Armenia and it has no diplomatic relations with the country.
- The main point of contention between the two was Ankara’s refusal to recognise the 1915 Armenian genocide in which the Ottomans killed some 1.5 million Armenians.
- On the other end, the Azeris and Turks share strong cultural and historical links. Azerbaijanis are a Turkic ethnic group and their language is from the Turkic family.
Where does Russia stand?
- Moscow sees the Caucasus and Central Asian region as its backyard. But the current clashes put President Vladimir Putin in a difficult spot.
- Russia enjoys good ties with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and supplies weapons to both.
- But Armenia is more dependent on Russia than the energy-rich, ambitious Azerbaijan. Russia also has a military base in Armenia.
- But Moscow, at least publicly, is trying to strike a balance between the two. Like in the 1990s, its best interest would be in mediating a ceasefire between the warring sides.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Nagorno-Karabakh region
Mains level : Usual crisis in the middle east and caucasus region
Clashes have erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the volatile Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Consider this PYQ:
Q.The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
What is the dispute?
- Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that is inside Azerbaijan but is run by ethnic Armenians, declared martial law and mobilized their male populations.
- Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Epicentre: The Nagorno-Karabakh region
- Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
- Though a ceasefire was agreed in 1994 after thousands of people were killed and many more displaced.
- Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.
Economics behind the clashes
- The clashes prompted a flurry of diplomacy to prevent a new flare-up of a decades-old conflict between majority Christian Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
- Pipelines shipping Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to the world pass close to Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The clashes have raised concerns about instability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Turkey’s Maritime Disputes
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Causacus region mapping
Mains level : Not Much
Turkish President Erdogan has asserted that his country will take whatever belongs to it in the Mediterranean, as well as Aegean and the Black Sea.
Try this PYQ:
Q.Turkey is located between
(a) The Black Sea and Caspian Sea
(b) The Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea
(c) Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea
(d) Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea
Assertion over the Mediterranean
- Greece and Turkey have been locked in a dispute over control of eastern Mediterranean waters.
- They are at odds over the rights to potential hydrocarbon resources, based on conflicting claims over the extent of their continental shelves.
- The Turkish navy will hold the shooting exercises in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Iskenderun, northeast of Cyprus.
- Cyprus was divided in 1974 following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-inspired coup.
- Turkey recognizes the Turkish-populated north of Cyprus as a separate state, which is not recognised by other countries.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Why has the Israel-UAE pact unsettled Palestine and Iran?
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank and its location
Mains level : Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
Last week Mr Trump has announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had reached a peace agreement. Many countries, including the European powers and India, have welcomed it, while the Palestinian leadership, as well as Turkey and Iran, have lashed out at the UAE.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.
Consider this PYQ:
Q. The area is known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to: (CSP 2015)
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
The Israel-UAE Pact
- The UAE and Israel would establish formal diplomatic relations and in exchange, Israel would suspend its plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu had earlier vowed to annex the Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
- But now, as part of the agreement, Israel “will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas” of the West Bank and “focus its efforts on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world”.
A timeline of Israel-Arab Conflict
Arab-Israeli ties have historically been conflict-ridden.
- Arab countries, including Egypt, Transjordan, Syria and Iraq, fought their first war with Israel in 1948 after the formation of the state of Israel was announced.
- The war ended with Israel capturing more territories, including West Jerusalem than what the UN Partition Plan originally proposed for a Jewish state.
- After that, Israel and Arab states fought three more major wars — the 1956 Suez conflict, the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
- After the 1967 war in which Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt, East Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan and the Golan Heights from Syria.
- Arab countries convened in Khartoum and declared their famous three “‘Nos’ — no peace with Israel, no talks with Israel and no recognition of Israel.
- But it did not last long. After the death of Egypt President Gamal Abdel Nasser, his successor Anwar Sadat started making plans to get Sinai back from Israel.
- His efforts, coupled with American pressure on Israel, led to the Camp David Accords of 1978 with Israel’s withdrawal.
Significance of the deal
- It’s a landmark agreement given that the UAE is only the third Arab country and the first in the Gulf region to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
- In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
- The UAE-Israel agreement comes after 26 years. If more countries in the Gulf follow the UAE’s lead, it would open a new chapter in Arab-Israel ties.
Why did the UAE sign the agreement?
- The old enmity between Arab countries and Israel has dissipated.
- The Sunni Arab kingdoms in the Gulf region such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE had developed backroom contacts with Israel over the past several years.
- One of the major factors that brought them closer has been their shared antipathy towards Iran.
- Arab countries have signalled that they are ready to live with Israel’s occupation of Palestine.
What do Arab countries want from Israel?
- Arab countries expect a major change in the status quo on West Bank annexation which would put Israel under political and diplomatic pressure.
- The UAE-Israel agreement has averted that outcome.
- If a Democratic Party (Trump’s opposition and Obama’s allegiance) comes to power and restores the Iran deal, both the Israeli and the Arab blocs in West Asia would come under pressure to live with an empowered Iran.
- A formal agreement and enhanced security and economic ties make the Arab and Israeli sides better prepared to face such a situation.
- So there is a convergence of interests for the UAE, Israel and the U.S. to come together in the region.
Where does it leave the Palestinians?
- Unlike the past two Arab-Israeli peace agreements, Palestinians do not figure prominently in the current one.
- In the present UAE-Israel deal, Israel has not made any actual concession to the Palestinians.
- The Palestinians are understandably upset. They called the UAE’s decision “treason”.
Geopolitical implications of the deal
- The agreement could fast-track the changes that are already underway in the region.
- The Saudi bloc, consisting of Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and others, see their interests being aligned with that of the U.S. and Israel and their support for Palestine, which Arab powers had historically upheld.
- Turkey and Iran now emerge as the strongest supporters of the Palestinians in the Muslim world.
- This tripolar contest is already at work in West Asia. The UAE-Israel thaw could sharpen it further.
Also read:
The Crisis In The Middle East
UAE, Israel reach agreement to establish diplomatic ties
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank and its location
Mains level : Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
The United Arab Emirates and Israel have agreed to establish full diplomatic ties as part of a deal to halt the annexation of occupied land sought by the Palestinians for their future state.
What is the deal?
- The deal halts Israeli annexation plans, the Palestinians have repeatedly urged Arab governments not to normalize ties with Israel until a peace agreement establishing an independent Palestinian state is reached.
Significance
- The announcement makes the UAE the first Gulf Arab state to do so and only the third Arab nation to have active diplomatic ties to Israel.
- For Israel, the announcement comes after years of boasting by Israeli PM Netanyahu that his government enjoys closer ties to Arab nations than publicly acknowledged.
West Bank and its annexation plan
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
The Crisis In The Middle East
West Bank Annexation Plan
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank and its location
Mains level : Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the Israeli leader’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would not start on the original target date as the British PM made an extraordinary appeal to Israel to call off the plan.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question.
Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Must read:
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 per cent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Israel swears in ‘Unity Government’
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Bank and its location
Mains level : Unity Government
Israel’s Parliament swore in its new unity government led by PM Netanyahu and his former rival Benny Gantz, ending the longest political crisis in their nation’s history.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
What is a Unity Government?
- A national unity government, government of national unity (GNU), or national union government is a broad coalition government consisting of all parties (or all major parties) in the legislature.
- Such a coalition is usually formed during a time of war or another national emergency.
- A general coalition government is a form of government in which political parties cooperate, reducing the dominance of any one party within that “coalition”.
Practice question for mains:
Q. Discuss the role and significance of Leader of Opposition and the Opposition Party and their constructive criticism in a Parliamentary form of government.
What is the Israeli deal?
- Israel’s unity government starts work amid the coronavirus pandemic and after a political crisis that saw three inconclusive elections and left the country in political limbo for more than 500 days.
- The coalition government was agreed last month between veteran right-wing leader Netanyahu and the centrist Gantz, a former army chief.
- The incoming government has aimed to apply Israeli sovereignty over West Bank settlements.
- The govt. now aims to push on with controversial plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank.
Significance
- Netanyahu said that it’s time to apply the Israeli law and write another glorious chapter in the history of Zionism citing the issue of Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory.
- Such a move is seen likely to cause international uproar and inflame tensions in the West Bank.
- The region is home to nearly three million Palestinians and some 400,000 Israelis living in settlements considered illegal under international law.
Back2Basics
West Bank Annexation plans
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Back2Basics: Gaza Strip
- The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
- A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
- While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.
The Crisis In The Middle East
West Bank Annexation plans by US
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Oslo Peace Accord, West Bank
Mains level : Israeli claims over West Bank and Gaza
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
The strategic location of Gaza strip, West Bank, Dead Sea etc. creates a hotspot for a possible map based prelims question. Consider this PYQ from 2015 CSP:
Q. The area known as ‘Golan Heights’ sometimes appears in the news in the context of the events related to:
a) Central Asia
b) Middle East
c) South-East Asia
d) Central Africa
Where is West Bank Located?
- The West Bank is located to the west of the Jordan River.
- It is a patch of land about one and a half times the size of Goa, was captured by Jordan after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
- Israel snatched it back during the Six-Day War of 1967 and has occupied it ever since.
- It is a landlocked territory, bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the south, west, and north.
- Following the Oslo Accords between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) during the 1990s, part of the West Bank came under the control of the Palestinian Authority.
- With varying levels of autonomy, the Palestinian Authority controls close to 40 percent of West Bank today, while the rest is controlled by Israel.
Back2Basics: Gaza Strip
- The Gaza Strip is a small boot-shaped territory along the Mediterranean coast between Egypt and Israel.
- A couple of years later in 2007, Hamas, an anti-Israel military group, took over Gaza Strip. The militia group is often involved in violent clashes with the Israeli Defence Forces.
- While Palestine has staked claim to both territories — West Bank and Gaza Strip — Israel’s objective has been to keep expanding Jewish settlements in these regions.
For complete details on Israel-Palestine conflict, kindly refer:
The Crisis In The Middle East
Location in news: Idlib Province
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Location of Idlib Province
Mains level : Usual turmoil in Syria
The nine-year-old war in Syria is currently raging in the northwestern province of Idlib, with rapidly escalating tensions between government forces of President Bashar al-Assad and the Turkish military.
Background
- President’s Assad’s forces are backed by Russia, who are clashing with thousands of Turkish troops south of its border with Syria.
- Turkey has closed the border and is trying to seal itself from waves of displaced refugees as Assad presses forth with a brutal campaign to take back Idlib.
Why is Idlib important?
- Assad has been pushing to recapture Idlib, which, along with parts of neighbouring Hama, Latakia and Aleppo, are the last remaining strongholds of the rebel opposition and other groups that have been attempting to overthrow Assad since 2011.
- At one point, the opposition held large parts of Syria under its control, but that changed after Assad, with Russian military support, slowly regained control over most of the country.
- In 2015, Idlib province was overtaken by opposition forces.
- Now, Syrian government forces are attempting to capture the strategic M4 and M5 national highways that connect Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus, the capital of the country.
- Idlib skirts the two national highways and lies between Aleppo in the north and Damascus in the south.
- It’s proximity to the Turkish border makes Idlib strategically important to the Syrian government.
Who controls Idlib now?
- Since the province fell to opposition forces, there is no one group that controls Idlib, but rather, several separate factions.
- International watchdogs say that the dominant faction in Idlib is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN-designated terrorist organization set up in 2017, with links to al-Qaeda.
- Also operating in Idlib is the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, an armed opposition group. Included in the mix are the remnants of the Islamic State.
- Watch groups say that other factions in Idlib strongly oppose the presence of IS fighters in the province.
Why is Idlib important for Turkey?
- Idlib’s proximity to the Turkish border makes it not only important for the Syrian government, but also a cause of concern for Turkey.
- Since the war started in Syria, thousands of displaced Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey over the years.
- According to the latest known figures, Turkey presently hosts some 3.6 million refugees and is feeling the socio-economic and political strain of their presence in the country.
- More conflict in Idlib would only serve to displace more people, pushing them towards the Turkish border.
- Turkey has been witnessing a surge in hostility among its citizens towards refugees and a fresh wave of refugees will only exacerbate the situation.
The Crisis In The Middle East
Explained: West Asia Peace Plan
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : West Asia Peace Plan
Mains level : Palestine & Israel conflicts
With West Asia Peace plan US plans to revive the stalled two-state talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who had earlier spoken against the two-state solution, has accepted the Trump plan.
West Asia Peace Plan
The West Asia peace plan unveiled by U.S. President Trump seeks to give the Israelis what they have long wanted — an expansive state with Jerusalem as its “undivided capital” and tight security control over a future Palestinian state.
What’s the plan about?
- The Trump plan seeks to address most of the contentious issues in the conflict such as the border of Israel, status of Palestinian refugees, Jewish settlements on the West Bank, land swap between Israel and Palestine, Israel’s security concerns and the status of the city of Jerusalem.
- However US have proposed to almost all of these issues favour the Israeli positions.
- For example, Israel would be allowed to annex the Jewish settlements on the West Bank as well as the Jordan Valley.
- The Palestinian refugees, who were forced out from their homes during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed the declaration of the state of Israel in the historic Palestine, would not be allowed to return.
- They could move to the future Palestinian state, be integrated into the host countries or settled in other regional countries.
Jerusalem: The undivided Capital
- Jerusalem, perhaps the most contentious issue, would be “the undivided capital” of Israel, with Palestine gaining its capital in the east of the city — beyond the security border Israel has already built.
- In return, Israel would freeze further settlement activities on the West Bank for four years — the time for negotiations.
Land Swap
- According to the Oslo Accords, the West Bank was divided into three areas and only one of them is under the direct control of the Palestinian Authority.
- The plan proposes some land swap for the Israeli annexation of the West Bank Jewish settlements.
- It seeks to enlarge Gaza and connect the strip with the West Bank through a tunnel.
- The Arab towns in the southeast of Israel, which are close to Gaza, could become part of a future Palestinian state.
Curb on Hamas
- During this period, the Palestinian Authority should dismiss its current complaints at the International Criminal Court against Israel and refrain itself from taking further actions.
- It should also crack down on “terrorist” groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
Investment Plans
- US has also proposed $50 billion in investment over 10 years should Palestine accept the proposals.
- In the final settlement, Palestine would get control over more land than what it currently controls.
Implications for Palestine
- The Palestine position is backed by most of the world powers is the formation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 border.
- It means the whole of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital including the Old City that houses Haram esh-Sharif, also known as Temple Mount, a holy site for both Muslims and Jews.
- Issues like the right of return of the Palestinian refugees are to be settled in final negotiations.
- But US has effectively rejected the Palestinian claims outright and asked them to make more compromises.
- He seeks to give Jerusalem and about 30% of the West Bank to the Israelis and has denied the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.
- And for this, the Palestinians should take action against militant groups, stop supporting Palestinian families of those jailed or killed by Israel and refrain itself from questioning the occupation in international fora.
The Crisis In The Middle East
[op-ed snap]The U.S. is weakened by Soleimani’s killing
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Not much.
Mains level : Paper2 - International relations
Context
Targeted killing of powerful Iranian Major-General could have done more bad than good for the U.S.
Series of events after the assassination
- The Iraqi parliament voted to expel the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and deny them access to its airspace, land or water.
- Pro-Iranian groups could attack across the region where thousands of U.S. troops and official personnel are stationed.
- Soleimani’s assassination has awakened the deep strain of Iranian patriotism.
- And Iran is not alone.
- In Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Soleimani the “glue that held the Resistance Axis together”.
- The U.S threat of striking “52 Iranian sites” did not win the U.S. any support on the international stage.
- Even the Europeans, otherwise steadfast with the U.S. in these sorts of adventures, hesitated.
- Arab League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed concern over the situation and asked for calm.
- This is the same man who had, only a few weeks ago, accused Iran of sowing chaos in the region.
- It is likely that China and Russia will table a resolution at the UN that calls for calm as well as criticises the U.S.
- This will certainly be vetoed by the U.S.
Desperate and irrational policy
- Till now the U.S. has not been able to extricate itself from its illegal war against Iraq.
- That war provided a massive advantage to Iran not only in Iraq but also across the region.
- This is what terrified two of the U.S.’s allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom pressured Washington to increase its threats against Iran.
- S. create the conditions for the rise of the worst kind of violence in Iraq, and later Syria
- It also weakened the strategic position of its allies.
- No attempt by the U.S. to regain its authority has worked.
- The U.S. policy against Iran and Iraq appear desperate and irrational.
Conclusion
- The U.S recklessness has isolated it further and deepened anxieties amongst its increasingly isolated regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Crisis In The Middle East
[op-ed of the day]Bracing for global impact after Soleimani’s assassination
Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Nothing much.
Mains level : Paper 2- International relations
Context
The recent targeted killing of Commander of Quds Forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by the US raised the tension in the region to a new high level. The imminent blowback from Iran could have several consequences for the rest of the world including India.
Different from past killings
- Though the U.S. has carried out many such targeted killings in the past but this case bears two important differences to the past killings.
- Unlike Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr, Gen. Soleimani was a state actor.
- Unlike the above mentioned two, he was not past his prime.
Roles played by Gen. Soleimani
- He was the founder-commander of Iran’s Quds Force-formed for extra-territorial operations.
- He enhanced Iran’s influence in the Arab countries by leveraging the disarray in the region.
- Arab countries with a significant Shia population such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen came under Iranian influence.
What could be the fallouts
- Tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. could easily go out of hand and precipitate into a major confrontation.
- Both countries have domestic compulsions- there are elections due in both countries.
- These compulsions limit options for both countries to low-intensity skirmishes.
- The fact that the killing was carried on the Iraqi soil also assumes significance.
- The incident could increase the problems in Iraq which is rocked by three months of youth protests against undue foreign interference by both Iran and the U.S.
- The event is also likely to re-polarise the Iraqi society along sectarian lines.
- In the worst-case scenario Iraq could turn into the new Syria.
Potential fallout for India
- Global oil prices have already seen a 4% rise in within hours of the incident.
- India has already faced difficulty in maintaining relations with both countries because of the U.S.-Iran cold war.
- While we want to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran apart from being civilisational have their own geostrategic logic.
- With conflict turning hot, its adverse impact on India could magnify.
- High oil prices will definitely increase our import bill and increase difficulties in supplies.
- Safety of an estimated 8 million expatriates in the Gulf may be affected.
- Iran could influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which in turn increases India’s woes.
- After Iran, India has a large number of Shia population and some of them could be radicalised due to the event.
Conclusion
The event, if turn into a wider conflict between the two countries, could have many consequences for India from soaring oil prices and maintaining the balance between the two countries to the safety of expatriates in the Gulf.
What exactly is this Syrian civil war?
- An ongoing armed conflict between the Syrian government and the rebel forces within Syria.
- It started in the spring of 2011 with the context of Arab spring.
To understand the conflict let us know the historical background of Syria. So, where is Syria?
- Syria is one of the Arab Nations which shares its borders with Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq.
- Damascus – capital of Syria.
- Syria became independent in 1946.
- Democratic rule was ended by a military coup in 1949.
- The military rule ended in 1954.
- From 1958-1961 Syria and Egypt were part of a union called as ‘United Arab Republic’ with Cairo as capital and Gamal Abdel Nasser as President.
- In 1961, Syria seceded from the Union after the Syrian Coup d’êtat – uprising by the Syrian Army officers.
- The country was named as Syrian Arab Republic.
- But the government was weak. Why? Due to the influence of United Arab Republic and a military coup happened in 1963 and 1966.
That’s pretty complex! But UPSC is famous for asking about the details. What happened then?
In 1970, in another coup General Hafez al -Assad, the Minister of Defence seized the power.
- He became the P.M of Syria.
- In 1971, he was declared the President of Syria (until his death in 2000).
- Syria was a single-party state.
- Syrians could approve the President by referendum until the government controlled multi party 2012 election.
- The Syrians could not vote in multiparty elections for the legislature.
The ascension of Bashar Al-Assad and the Shia-Sunni conflicts
- Son of Hafez al-Assad – Took over as the President of Syria after his Father’s death.
- The Syrians wanted democratic form of government but, ah well!
- The Assads belong to minority group Alawite (an offshoot of Shia which constitutes 12% of the total population).
- They controlled Syria’s security services which generated resentment among the Sunni Muslims (majority in Syria).
Phew! That is a very complex history. What happened next that finally led to the war? It is important to cover the story comprehensively for an IAS Aspirant.
- Well, the discontent was high against the government in poorer areas among Sunnis + High poverty and drought.
- Socio-economic inequality increased after free market policies initiated by Hafez al-Assad.
- Bashar continued those policies and only the minorities (Shias) and Sunni merchant class benefited through that.
- Standard of living deteriorated + High youth unemployment rates.
Then there were a few violation of human rights and eventually an uprising!
In 2010 the protests from Tunisia spread across the Arab world. In 2011 Tunisia and Egypt experienced revolution. Libya had its own civil war. The Tunisia and Egypt revolution inspired the Syrians to protest against their government.
Wow, that escalated quickly. So how did the protests turn into an armed rebellion?
- March 2011 – The initial protests were aimed at democratic reforms which started in Damascus.
- Till April 7, 2011, the protesters demanded democratic reforms, release of political prisoners, more freedom, abolition of emergency law and an end to corruption.
- On April 8, 2011, the protesters demanded Bashar’s resignation and protests spread across major cities in Syria.
- On 4th June, 2011, the Syrian security forces guarding on the roof of a post office fired at a funeral demonstration.
- The protesters set fire to the post office and killed the security officers and then seized weapons from a police station.
- The soldiers who refused to kill the protesters were executed and that led to the inclusion of soldiers into the protests to protect the protesters.
And that led to the formation of the Free Syrian Army
- Formed by 7 Syrian officers who defected the Syrian armed forces. The other soldiers joined them.
- The aim was to bring down Assad government.
- Then the fight started between Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Armed Forces.
- The people protested one side, the Syrian Kurds, FSA, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) started armed rebellion against the Syrian government.
- ISIL controlled a third of Syrian territory and most of its oil and gas production.
- This led to a major twist in the Syrian civil war.
- Due to the civil war in the country huge scores of people died and many were displaced.
- Many people fled from Syria to other nations as refugees.
- This led to a major migrant crisis in the Middle East.
UPSC will probably grill you down to your guts on how this issue will complicate situation in the middle east. These are the current themes doing rounds as the news evolves and you need to keep a tab on these developments for the IAS Mains.
Published with inputs from Vinoth.