Why in the News?
This May has been unusually wet, with India getting 68.4% more rain than normal. Also, there have been no extreme temperatures or major heatwaves across most parts of the country.
What caused the wet and cool May in India?
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Why is the formation of heat lows over northwest India important for the monsoon?
- Creates Suction for Moist Winds: Heat lows act like a vacuum, pulling moisture-laden southwesterly winds from the Indian Ocean into the Indian subcontinent. Eg: Strong heat lows over Rajasthan help trigger early monsoon onset over central India.
- Drives Monsoon Circulation: These low-pressure areas initiate and sustain the monsoon trough, which is essential for widespread rainfall. Eg: Absence of heat lows can delay or weaken the monsoon across northwest and central India.
- Influences Rainfall Intensity and Spread: Proper heat low development ensures uniform and timely rainfall, crucial for agriculture. Eg: Weak heat lows in 2015 contributed to a patchy and deficient monsoon season.
How do El Niño and IOD affect the monsoon?
- El Niño Weakens Monsoon Winds: El Niño leads to warmer Pacific Ocean waters, which suppresses the Indian monsoon by weakening the low-pressure system over the subcontinent. Eg: The 2015 El Niño caused a 14% rainfall deficit in India.
- Positive IOD Strengthens Monsoon: A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) brings warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia, enhancing monsoon winds and rainfall over India. Eg: In 2019, a strong positive IOD offset El Niño’s impact, resulting in above-normal rainfall.
What would be the impact of monsoon on food inflation?
- Good Monsoon Boosts Crop Yields: Adequate rainfall ensures timely sowing and healthy harvests, leading to better food availability and stable prices. Eg: A normal monsoon in 2022 helped moderate cereal price rise.
- Reduces Dependency on Imports: Sufficient domestic production of staples like wheat and pulses lowers the need for costly imports, helping control food inflation. Eg: In 2024, surplus wheat stock due to good rainfall reduced price pressure.
- Stabilises Rural Demand and Supply Chains: A healthy monsoon supports rural incomes, improving supply consistency and reducing volatility in food prices. Eg: Strong kharif output in 2021 led to a drop in vegetable prices.
Way forward:
- Strengthen Climate-Responsive Agriculture: Promote drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties and expand irrigation to reduce dependence on erratic monsoons.
- Enhance Weather Forecasting and Storage Infrastructure: Improve real-time weather alerts and expand warehousing to minimize post-harvest losses and stabilize food prices.
Mains PYQ:
[UPSC 2024] What are the causes of persistent high food inflation in India? Comment on the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the RBI to control this type of inflation.
Linkage: Understanding the dynamics of food inflation, as required by this question, is essential for appreciating the significant positive economic contribution that a favorable monsoon can make by potentially increasing agricultural output and stabilizing food prices.
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