The Crisis In The Middle East

Conflict in Middle East: As world watches oil, why India must watch its fertiliser supply 

Why in the News?

The Iran-Israel conflict has drawn global attention for its impact on oil prices, but a less visible and equally serious issue is emerging in fertiliser supply, which poses a significant risk to farming and food security in India.

What are the fertiliser security risks for India amid geopolitical conflicts?

  • Disruption of Import Routes: India relies heavily on fertiliser imports from Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. These imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route vulnerable to blockades during conflicts like the Iran-Israel standoff. Eg: A naval blockade in the Strait could delay shipments of urea and DAP, affecting timely supply during sowing seasons.
  • Volatile Global Prices: Geopolitical tensions raise the prices of natural gas (used to produce urea) and finished fertilisers. Eg: A conflict-induced surge in natural gas prices increases the cost of domestic urea production, straining India’s fertiliser subsidy bill.
  • Dependence on Conflict Zones: India imports 100% of MOP (Muriate of Potash), including from Belarus and Israel, both affected by global instability. Eg: Escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict can disrupt MOP imports, impacting crops like sugarcane and cotton that need potash-based fertilisers.

What lessons from the Russia-Ukraine crisis remain unaddressed?

  • Lack of Strategic Buffer Stocks: Despite 2022 supply disruptions, India still lacks a fertiliser buffer stock policy or minimum stocking norms for critical imports like DAP and MOP. Eg: During peak sowing seasons (like Kharif), 30–45 days of operational stock is inadequate to absorb external shocks.
  • Failure to Diversify Import Sources Meaningfully: While India talks of diversification, it continues to rely heavily on Gulf countries and politically unstable regions. Eg: After disruptions in nitrogen and potash from Russia and Belarus, the current dependence on Israel and Jordan for DAP remains high, risking repetition.
  • Reactive Rather than Proactive Policymaking: The policy response has focused more on short-term procurement than long-term resilience building through joint ventures, domestic innovation, or alternative fertilisers. Eg: No significant scaling of nano, bio or organic fertilisers occurred post-2022, leaving India stuck with high subsidy bills for synthetic inputs.

Why should fertilisers be part of India’s national security planning?

  • Critical for Food Security: Fertilisers are essential for sustaining agricultural output in an input-intensive farming system. Eg: Disruptions in urea or DAP supply during sowing seasons can directly impact crop yields and food availability.
  • Vulnerability to Geopolitical Shocks: Heavy reliance on imports from unstable regions exposes India to external risks.  
  • Impact on Economic and Rural Stability: Fertiliser shortages or price hikes raise subsidy burdens and can lead to rural distress.  

What are the steps taken by the Indian government?

  • Boosting Domestic Production: Reviving closed urea plants (e.g., Gorakhpur, Sindri, Talcher) to achieve 90% urea self-sufficiency by 2025. Focus on reducing import dependency for nitrogen-based fertilisers.
  • Diversifying Import Sources: Forming long-term agreements and joint ventures with countries like Morocco (for phosphates) and Canada (for potash) to ensure a stable supply. Exploring partnerships beyond the Middle East to reduce geopolitical risk.
  • Subsidy and Distribution Reforms: Implementing the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) system for fertiliser subsidies to ensure transparency. Promoting alternative fertilisers like Nano Urea and encouraging balanced nutrient usage.

How can India build resilience in fertiliser supply chains? (Way forward)

  • Develop Strategic Fertiliser Reserves: Establish buffer stocks of key fertilisers like urea, DAP, and MOP, especially for critical sowing seasons (e.g., Kharif and Rabi) to cushion against global disruptions.
  • Expand and Diversify Import Partnerships: Forge long-term agreements and joint ventures with stable countries (e.g., Morocco, Canada, Jordan) and explore alternative shipping routes to reduce overdependence on the Middle East and de-risk supply chains.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2017] The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries.

Linkage: The article explicitly states that India relies heavily on Gulf countries for “natural gas — the key raw material used to produce” urea, a vital fertilizer. The ongoing conflict threatens “ammonia, urea, DAP, and liquified natural gas (LNG) — all vital for agriculture”. This PYQ precisely captures the energy dimension of India’s dependency on the Middle East, which is a critical underlying factor contributing to the fertilizer crisis.

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