Why in the News?
India’s economic data for 2024–25 shows a mixed picture: the economy grew strongly by 7.4% in the last quarter, which was better than expected, but the overall yearly growth dropped to 6.5% — the lowest in four years since the pandemic.
What led to the higher-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2024-25?
- Robust Growth in Construction and Agriculture Sectors: The construction sector returned to double-digit growth, and agriculture performed strongly, both of which are key employment generators. Eg: Infrastructure expansion and favourable harvests boosted rural incomes and demand.
- Strong Performance of Services Sector: The services sector maintained steady and strong growth, contributing significantly to the GDP rise. Eg: IT, finance, and hospitality services saw sustained recovery post-pandemic.
- Statistical Boost from Higher Net Taxes: A 12.7% increase in net tax collections inflated the GDP figure, even though underlying economic activity was slower. Eg: Higher indirect tax revenues during the quarter pushed headline growth from ~6.8% to 7.4%.
Why is 6.5% annual GDP growth seen as inadequate despite being the highest globally?
- Below the Required Rate for ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ Vision: To achieve the developed nation goal by 2047, India needs sustained annual growth of around 8% or more. Eg: The Economic Survey states that consistent 8% growth is essential to meet infrastructure, employment, and welfare needs by 2047.
- Mismatch with India’s Domestic Demands and Aspirations: India’s population growth and development needs demand faster economic expansion, regardless of how the rest of the world is performing. Eg: Even though India outpaces global peers, a 6.5% rate may not create enough jobs or uplift per capita incomes sufficiently.
- Limited Acceleration Potential Under Stable Growth Phase: While 6.5% reflects stability, it also signals a plateau, with low inflation but no signs of rapid acceleration in the near future. Eg: Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran indicated India may not see major growth spurts soon, making it harder to catch up with long-term development targets.
How do net taxes affect the true picture of GDP growth?
- Artificial Boost to Headline GDP: A significant rise in net taxes (taxes minus subsidies) can inflate GDP figures without a corresponding increase in real economic activity. Eg: In Q4 2024–25, GDP growth was 7.4%, but without the 12.7% surge in net taxes, real growth would have been around 6.8%.
- Distorts Sector-Wise Contribution Assessment: High net tax contributions may overshadow sluggish performance in core sectors like manufacturing or consumption, giving a misleading impression of overall health. Eg: Despite weak private consumption, GDP looked robust due to the statistical impact of increased tax revenue.
Is stable growth enough for India’s transition?
- Stability Reduces Risk but Limits Acceleration: While stable growth ensures low inflation and reduced economic volatility, it may not generate the momentum needed to transform India into a developed economy. Eg: As per the Chief Economic Adviser, India has entered a phase of low inflation and stable growth, but such stability might cap faster economic acceleration.
- Inadequate for Meeting Rising Aspirations: India’s growing population and developmental needs require higher employment, infrastructure, and productivity, which stable but slow growth may not adequately support. Eg: A 6.5% GDP growth may not create enough jobs or income levels to match the goals of schemes like ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’.
- Missed Opportunity in a Global Slowdown: In a “growth-scarce” global environment, India has the chance to become a key economic engine. Relying on stable growth without pushing for higher gains may lead to missed strategic opportunities. Eg: Despite outperforming other major economies, India’s slow capital investment pace until late FY25 indicates underutilization of its potential.
Way forward:
- Accelerate Structural Reforms and Investments: India must boost productivity by investing in infrastructure, manufacturing, skilling, and digitalisation, while simplifying regulations to attract both domestic and foreign investment. Eg: Fast-tracking initiatives like Gati Shakti and PLI schemes can unlock higher economic momentum.
- Enhance Domestic Demand and Job Creation: Policies should focus on reviving rural consumption, supporting MSMEs, and expanding labour-intensive sectors to ensure inclusive growth. Eg: Increasing public expenditure on health, education, and affordable housing can stimulate demand and generate employment.
Mains PYQ:
[UPSC 2024] Examine the pattern and trend of public expenditure on social services in the post-reforms period in India. To what extent this has been in consonance with achieving the objective of inclusive growth?
Linkage: Inclusive growth is a core objective for a “transitioning economy” like India aiming for goals such as ‘Viksit Bharat’, and challenges in achieving it represent “growing pains”.
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