In a dilemma

Why in the News

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has applied for a new passport and national identity card and plans to return home in December. Dhaka has rejected the request. Her planned return has stalled India-Bangladesh ties and left India in a dilemma.

Who is Sheikh Hasina, and why does her return matter?

1. Exile in India: Sheikh Hasina led the Awami League government that a youth led uprising overthrew. She took refuge in India on 5 August 2024.
2. Death sentence: A tribunal in Bangladesh has convicted her of ordering a crackdown on thousands of students and sentenced her to death.
3. Earlier exile: She lived in exile in India from 1975 to 1981, after her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of her family were assassinated.
4. Return plan: She plans to return to argue her case and rebuild the Awami League, which faces a bipartisan (cross party) push in Bangladesh to ban it from politics.
5. The takeaway: India’s honoured guest faces a death sentence at home, so her travel plan is now a foreign policy problem for New Delhi.

How has Dhaka responded to her passport request?

1. The application: A London based law firm acting for her wrote to the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi on 9 November.
2. Dhaka’s refusal: The Foreign Affairs Adviser to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman said Dhaka would not grant a passport to a “terrorist”.
3. Extradition route: Dhaka will instead seek her return under its extradition agreement with India, which provides for handing over wanted persons. It calls this a “prisoner transfer process”.
4. Government’s bind: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government is unlikely to want her back. It would then have to begin execution proceedings and face international opposition.
5. Pressure from the opposition: The government’s inaction strengthens the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami, which accuses the government of going soft on her.

How has the rift hurt India-Bangladesh ties?

1. Press conference fallout: India let Hasina hold a virtual press conference in Delhi on 5 August, where she criticised Prime Minister Rahman. His visit to India was then cancelled.
2. Consular dialogue postponed: The India-Bangladesh consular dialogue, due in Dhaka on 17 and 18 November, has been postponed over her announced return.
3. Lost agenda: It was to cover border management, visa procedures and the repatriation of detained citizens.
4. Water talks stalled: Talks on extending the Ganga Waters Treaty, 1996, which expires next month, have stalled because of the rift.
5. Visa recovery at risk: India cut visas for Bangladeshis sharply after August 2024 and has raised them since Rahman’s election in February. The rift puts this recovery at risk.

Why is India caught in a dilemma?

1. No power to restrain: India cannot physically stop its honoured guest from flying to Dhaka or crossing the land border at Petrapole, nor can it disown responsibility for her fate once she crosses.
2. Two goals in tension: India must rebuild ties with the government in Dhaka and also ensure Hasina’s welfare. The first needs distance from her, and the second needs continued protection.

Challenges

1. Extradition request: A formal extradition request would force India to choose between a treaty partner and a former leader it shelters.
2. Little room in Dhaka: Pressure from the Jamaat-e-Islami leaves the BNP government little political room to soften its stand on Hasina or ease ties with the country sheltering her.
3. Unrest on return: Her return carries a risk of protests and violence in Bangladesh, which would turn opinion further against India as her host.

Way Forward

1. Separate tracks: Keep water, border and visa talks apart from the Hasina question, starting with a fresh date for the consular dialogue.
2. Interim water deal: Use the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), the two countries’ joint body on shared rivers, to agree an interim extension of the treaty before it lapses.
3. Assurances on due process: Seek Dhaka’s assurances on her safety and a fair legal process before she travels.

Conclusion

India’s protection of Hasina and its need for working ties with Dhaka’s new government now pull in opposite directions. Her planned return and the lapse of the water sharing treaty are the decision points to watch.

Back2Basics: Ganga Waters Treaty, 1996

1. Term: India and Bangladesh signed it in December 1996 for 30 years, with no automatic extension clause.
2. Lean season sharing: It divides the dry season flow of the Ganga at Farakka, from January to May, in ten day cycles.
3. No arbitration clause: Disputes go first to a Joint Committee, which records flows at Farakka and Hardinge Bridge. They then go to the JRC and the two governments, never to an external forum.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2013, GS2, 10 marks] The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India?”