Why in the News
India carries nearly a quarter of the world’s tuberculosis (TB) cases, yet this year’s World Health Organization (WHO) Global TB Report carries no estimate of India’s TB incidence. WHO says India’s estimates await district level surveillance data and should be updated in early 2027. India has also not released its own annual TB report.
What is TB incidence, and why does the estimate matter?
- What it is: TB incidence is the estimated number of new TB cases in a year, including those never diagnosed. Notified cases count only the patients the health system records.
- Undiagnosed gap: The gap between estimated incidence and notified cases is treated as the number of undiagnosed, untreated patients, who keep spreading the infection.
- Missing national report: India’s own annual TB report, usually released in March on World TB Day, carries detailed State level data.
- The takeaway: Without an incidence estimate, India cannot show how many TB patients its programme is still missing.
Why is India’s estimate under review?
- District survey: Instead of a national survey, the government measured TB prevalence in 50 randomly selected, representative districts in 2025.
- Comparability check: WHO says the results must first be checked against the 2020-21 national prevalence survey, then adjusted and released.
- Past surveys: India’s incidence estimates rested on two national surveys, in 1955-58 and 2020-21.
- Repeatable method: A national survey is superior but costly, so even China has done only three. A district survey can be repeated more often.
- Likely lower estimate: An expert expects the new method to lower India’s incidence, partly because the programme works.
What does the report show for India?
- Diagnosed cases: The national programme diagnosed 25.3 lakh people in 2025, down from 26.18 lakh a year earlier.
- Deaths: Reported TB deaths fell to 2.63 lakh in 2025 from just over 3 lakh a year earlier.
- Programme measures: The National TB Elimination Programme (NTEP) credits Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled X-rays, rapid diagnostics, differentiated care, and nutrition support through Ni-kshay Poshan Yojana and Ni-kshay Mitra donors.
- Domestic funding: Domestic resources meet 96% of TB programme funding needs.
- Treatment success: 94% for drug susceptible TB, the form that responds to standard drugs.
Is India on track to end TB?
- Mortality fall: India’s TB mortality has fallen 38% since 2015, against a global decline of 35%.
- Milestone five years late: India has now crossed WHO’s milestone, a 35% cut in deaths from the 2015 level, five years after its 2020 deadline.
- 2025 target missed: The target for 2025 was a 75% cut in TB deaths.
- Global picture: About 10.6 million people fell ill with TB worldwide in 2025, far from the goal of eliminating it.
Challenges
- Hidden cases: Undiagnosed patients spread TB without entering notified data.
- Drug resistant TB: Multidrug resistant TB, which does not respond to the main TB drugs, remains a crisis and a health security threat.
- Catastrophic costs: About half of TB affected households worldwide spend over 20% of household income on the illness.
Way Forward
- Publish revised estimates: Release the district survey based estimates on schedule, with the method explained.
- Restore the annual report: The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare should resume the annual India TB report with State level data.
- Regular district surveys: Repeat district prevalence surveys at fixed intervals to track trends.
Conclusion
India’s TB deaths have fallen faster than the global average, but without an incidence estimate the size of its hidden epidemic is unknown. Whether the revised estimate shows the programme reaching the patients it now misses is the thing to watch.
Key numbers
- Global TB deaths: 1.13 million in 2025 (WHO).
- Concentration: About 88% of new cases in 30 countries; India about a quarter, Indonesia 10%.
- Regional shares, 2025: South-East Asia 35%, Western Pacific 27%, Africa 25% of new cases.
- TB Mukt Bharat Abhiyaan: Over 25 crore people screened, 7 December 2024 to 8 November 2026.
Back2Basics: End TB Strategy
- About: A WHO strategy adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2014 to end the global TB epidemic.
- 2030 targets: A 90% cut in TB deaths and an 80% cut in incidence, compared with 2015.
- Cost target: No TB affected family should face catastrophic costs from the disease.
- India’s goal: India set itself the goal of ending TB by 2025, five years ahead of the Sustainable Development Goal deadline of 2030.
Matching Previous Year Question
“No direct PYQ traced in the provided files. Thematic PYQ: [2024, GS2, 15 marks] In a crucial domain like the public healthcare system, the Indian State should play a vital role to contain the adverse impact of marketisation of the system. Suggest some measures through which the State can enhance the reach of public healthcare at the grassroots level.”
