From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : NA
Mains level : Global slowdown and India' economic growth
“The mantle of the G20 presidency has come at the right time, allowing India to influence the global agenda based on its own priority of accelerated, inclusive and resilient growth”
- The pandemic has proven to be the breakout moment in India’s long overdue emergence as the world’s next engine of growth. New India is bearing fruit at a time when one-third of the world’s economy is facing a slowdown. Speaking at FICCI’s 95th annual general meeting, Finance Minister said that the upcoming budget will set the template for the next 25 years, which is India’s Amrit Kaal.
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A gloomy global outlook
- Prospectus of global growth: According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth will nearly halve to 3.2 per cent in 2022 and fall further to 2.7 per cent in 2023, reflecting stalling growth in the US, China and the Euro Zone.
- Global inflation: Higher food and energy prices have led to global inflation peaking at 8.8 per cent in 2022 which is, however, expected to decline to 6.5 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024.
- Developed nations are struggling to tame inflation: Developed nations have adopted excessive stimulus measures. According to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, in 2020 and 2021, households globally added $100 trillion to global wealth on paper as asset prices soared and $39 trillion in new currency and deposits were minted and debt and equity liabilities increased by about $50 trillion and $75 trillion, respectively, as governments and central banks stimulated economies.
- Russia- Ukraine conflict inflicting fiscal pain: Meanwhile, the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict is inflicting fiscal pain beyond the immediate region
- Disrupted supply chain by China’s covid policy: While China’s Covid policy has disrupted supply chains, which are now once again threatened by a potential fallout of an abrupt reversal.
- India’s inflation is largely imported: India’s own fight against inflation, which is largely imported, has been aided by fiscal and monetary policy working in tandem with a little help from easing commodity prices.
India stands at a bright spot amidst significant challenges
- Fastest-growing large economy in the world: However, India stands out as a rare bright spot with the economy estimated to grow around 7 per cent in FY23 and a growth forecast of 6.1-6.5 per cent in FY24, thus retaining the tag of the fastest-growing large economy in the world.
- Inflation coming down within RBI’s tolerance level: In an encouraging sign, retail inflation eased to 5.88 per cent in November, thus coming within the RBI’s tolerance band after 11 months. While it is too early to declare victory in terms of taming inflation, policymakers must now chart out a path that prioritises growth
- India likely to overtake Japan and Germany to become 3rd largest economy: Having recently surpassed the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, India is likely to overtake Japan and Germany before the end of the decade to become the third-largest economy in the world.
- What made this possible: Reforms aimed at enhancing ease of doing business and reducing the cost of doing business in a large, unified domestic market along with a focus on boosting the manufacturing sector through the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, which are helping attract large investments including in critical areas like semiconductors.
What India has to share with the world?
- G20 leadership to bring about structural transformation: Its priority as G20 president is to focus on areas, which have the potential to bring about structural transformation leading to accelerated, inclusive and resilient growth.
- Concept of LiFE for a sustainable lifestyle: Similarly, the concept of LiFE (Lifestyle for the Environment) draws upon ancient sustainable traditions to reinforce modern-day environmentally conscious practices.
- Knowledge sharing: Finally, knowledge sharing in areas like digital public infrastructure and financial inclusion will enable the wider adoption of disruptive technologies.
- Investors both domestic and global must now come forward and participate in the India growth story which, in turn, will give a much-needed boost to global growth going ahead. Speaking at the World Economic Forum last year, PM Modi said “Make in India, Make for the World”. There has never been a better time to invest in India and reap the benefits of what it has to offer.
Q. At a time when one-third of the world’s economy is facing a slowdown India stands at a brighter spot Discuss. Highlight what India has to share with the world?
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