New deal

Why in the News

The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has opened in Antalya, Türkiye, with Türkiye as host and Australia presiding over the negotiations. Its main task is to deliver finance already promised, not to set new targets. Several prominent world leaders, including Europeans, have skipped the meeting.

What is COP31 expected to deliver?

1. What a COP is: A COP is the yearly meeting of UNFCCC member countries to negotiate cutting emissions and paying for climate action. It is like the annual general meeting of the climate treaty.
2. Island focus: Ministerial delegations visited Fiji and Tuvalu before the summit, since small island nations are most vulnerable to warming.
3. Finance goal: The main concern is delivering $300 billion a year by 2035, the climate finance goal decided at COP29 in Baku.
4. Adaptation finance: COP30 called for tripling adaptation finance, money that helps countries cope with climate impacts, over the same period. How the funds will actually flow has been deferred to COP32.
5. The takeaway: COP31 will be judged on whether money already promised reaches developing countries.

Why are the science and the fossil fuel agenda stalling?

1. Global stocktake: The second global stocktake, a periodic check on collective progress under the Paris Agreement, begins at COP31.
2. IPCC delay: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has not settled a timeline for its next reports. These reports give policymakers the scientific push to keep warming below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C.
3. No formal fossil fuel roadmap: COP30 ended without a formal roadmap away from fossil fuels, a step back from the consensus reached at COP28 in Dubai.
4. Voluntary roadmap: A voluntary roadmap exists but sits outside the formal negotiating text, so it binds no country.

Why is climate money scarce?

1. Competing pressures: Three pressures have squeezed the funds available:
   • the West Asia war;
   • the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the Paris Agreement;
   • financial strain across Europe.
2. Loss and damage example: The Loss and Damage fund recently approved $21 million for Nepal, when the need runs into billions.

Why did India refuse the electrification pledge?

1. Electrification target: The COP31 President has set a target to raise electricity’s share of total energy consumption to 35% by 2035.
2. Starting point: Electricity now meets 23% of total energy consumption, so the target needs a fast shift from direct fuel use in industry, transport and homes to power.
3. India’s refusal: India has refused to sign the pledge. It insists on three conditions:
   • predictable climate finance, money developing countries can plan around;
   • technology transfer, clean technology shared by developed countries;
   • nationally determined approaches, each country choosing its own path to cut emissions.
4. Delivery before ambition: New targets without the promised finance shift the cost of transition onto developing countries.

Challenges

1. Unclear delivery channels: No agreed mechanism yet decides who pays and through which channel, so the finance goal remains a promise.
2. Leadership vacuum: The absence of top leaders and the US exit weaken political pressure on major emitters.
3. Science timeline: Without a fixed IPCC schedule, the stocktake lacks fresh science to push countries towards higher ambition.
4. Fossil fuel ambiguity: A roadmap outside the formal text lets countries expand fossil fuel use without breaching any commitment.

Way Forward

1. Finance delivery plan: Agree a delivery plan for the finance goal at COP31, with yearly milestones and a grant share.
2. Adaptation baseline: Set a baseline and annual reporting to track progress on tripling adaptation finance.
3. Replenished fund: Developed countries should replenish the Loss and Damage fund so that grants match the scale of disasters.
4. IPCC calendar: Fix the IPCC report calendar so that the second stocktake draws on current science.
5. Supported sectoral goals: Keep sectoral goals such as electrification voluntary, and back them with finance and technology for developing countries.

Conclusion

The credibility of COP31 rests on delivering money already promised, not on new targets that developing countries cannot fund. The test to watch is whether this meeting fixes how climate finance flows or postpones the question again.

Back2Basics: Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage

1. What it is: A dedicated fund that pays for climate damage that has already happened and can no longer be adapted to.
2. Distinct role: It is separate from mitigation funds, which cut emissions, and adaptation funds, which prepare for future impacts.
3. Origin: It was established at COP27 in 2022 and operationalised at COP28 a year later.
4. Host: It is temporarily hosted by the World Bank.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2021, GS3, 15 marks] Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India in this conference?”