From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : National Monsoon Mission
Mains level : Determinants of Indian Monsoon
Under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM), Ministry of Earth Sciences has developed the state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models, which are now in operational use.
Tap to read about the mechanism of Indian Monsoon System at:
National Monsoon Mission (NMM)
- Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) had launched NMM in 2012 with a vision to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales.
- The responsibility of execution and coordination of this mission is vested to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
- Climate Forecast System (CFS) of USA has been identified as the basic modelling system for the above purpose, as it is one of the best among the currently available coupled models.
Targets of NMM
- Development of a seamless prediction system using monsoon mission model, on different time scales, like Seasonal (for whole Monsoon season), extended-range (upto 4 weeks), short-range prediction (up-to 5days).
- Initiate and coordinate the working partnership between Indian and foreign institutes to develop a system for prediction of extremes and climate applications
- Develop and implement the system for climate applications having social impacts (such as agriculture, flood forecast, extreme events forecast, wind energy, etc.
- Advanced data assimilation system for preparing high-quality data for model predictions.
Achievements of NMM during the last 3 years
- Setting up of an advanced prediction system for Seasonal prediction; Extended range prediction and Very high-resolution Short-range prediction.
- Commissioning of a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for short and medium-range prediction at 12km.
- The Cyclone track and intensity prediction has also shown a steady improvement over the last three years.
- The operationalization of Monsoon Mission dynamical model (MMCFS) to prepare operational seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall and temperatures during the hot and cold weather seasons over India.
- Development of an algorithm to monitor and predict the Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillations (MISO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extended range.
- Development of an index to predict the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones and other cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean.