Maharashtra Governor has recently received flak for his remarks on the social reformist couple Jyotirao and Savitribai Phule.
Who were the Phules?
Mahatma Jyotirao and Savitribai Phule stand out as an extraordinary couple in the social and educational history of India.
They spearheaded path-breaking work towards female education and empowerment, and towards ending caste- and gender-based discrimination.
In 1840, at a time when child marriages were common, Savitri at the age of ten was married to Jyotirao, who was thirteen years old at the time.
The couple later in life strove to oppose child marriage and also organised widow remarriages.
The Phules’ endeavors and legacy
Education: Jyotirao, the revolutionary that he was, observed the lack of opportunities for education for young girls and women.
Leaders of the masses: He started to educate his wife at home and trained her to become a teacher. Together, by 1848, the Phules started a school for girls, Shudras and Ati-Shudras in Poona.
Widow shelter: The historic work was started by Jyotirao when he was just 21 years old, ably supported by his 18-year-old wife. In 1853, Jyotirao-Savitribai opened a care centre for pregnant widows to have safe deliveries and to end the practice of infanticide owing to social norms.
Prevention of infanticide: The Balhatya Pratibandhak Griha (Home for the Prevention of Infanticide) started in their own house at 395, Ganj Peth, Pune.
The Satyashodhak Samaj:
Literally meaning ‘The Truth-Seeker’s Society’ was established on September 24, 1873 by Jyotirao-Savitribai and other like-minded people.
The Samaj advocated for social changes that went against prevalent traditions, including economical weddings, inter-caste marriages, eradication of child marriages, and widow remarriage.
The Phules also had far-sighted goals — popularising female education, establishing an institutional structure of schools in India, and to have a society where women worked in tandem with men.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put global commodity markets in a tizzy. It is now threatening to push up farming costs and send food prices soaring. Food inflation in India may thus soon enter doubledigit territory. Let’s takes a look at the impact and other aspects of the issue.
Household budget hit
If the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.
Back to basics: How is inflation measured?
In India, inflation is primarily measured by two main indices — WPI and CPI, which measure wholesale and retail-level price changes, respectively.
The CPI calculates the difference in the price of commodities and services such as food, medical care, education, electronics etc. which Indian consumers buy for use.
On the other hand, the goods or services sold by businesses to smaller businesses for selling further is captured by the WPI.
In India, both WPI and CPI are used to measure inflation.
Current Trend of Inflation in India
The average headline Consumer Price Index-Combined (CPI-C) inflation in India moderated to 5.2 per cent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 per cent in the period of 2020-21.
The CPI inflation remained range bound as food prices eased considerably due to the supply management response by the Government.
(1) Food Inflation
Food inflation remained benign this span.
While seasonality plays a significant role in the case of vegetables, random shocks like untimely rains also have an impact on their availability and prices.
Proactive measures were taken to contain the price rise in pulses and edible oils that reported high inflation reflecting the impact of imported inflation in these commodities.
Reduction in central excise and subsequent cuts in VAT by most States has also helped ease petrol and diesel prices.
(2) Wholesale Inflation
Wholesale inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI), after remaining very benign during the previous financial year on account of pandemic induced weakening of economic activity.
This was attributable to the pick-up in economic activity, sharp increase in international prices of crude oil and other imported inputs, and high freight costs.
Issues: Divergence if figures
The consequent divergence between CPI-C and WPI inflation during the year remained a subject of debate.
This divergence can be explained by factors such as variations due to base effect, difference in scope and coverage of the two indices, their price collections, items covered and difference in commodity weights.
Further, WPI is more sensitive to cost-push inflation led by imported inputs.
With the gradual waning of base effect in WPI, the divergence in CPI-C inflation and WPI inflation is also expected to narrow down.
Global Inflation
In 2021, inflation picked up globally as economic activity revived with opening-up of economies.
The surge in energy, food, non-food commodities, and input prices, supply constraints, disruption of global supply chains, and rising freight costs across the globe stoked global inflation during the year.
Crude oil prices also witnessed an upswing due to increased demand from recovering economies and supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
A global comparison
Advanced Economies include 40 economies and Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) include 156 economies as per IMF classification.
In comparison to many EMDEs and advanced economies, consumer price inflation in India remained normal range bound in the recent months.
As against this, inflation in USA touched 7.0 per cent in December 2021, the highest since 1982, driven largely by second hand vehicles and energy.
While in the UK it hit a nearly 30 years high of 5.4 per cent in December 2021 mainly on account of rising food prices.
What is the Conflict?
Contestation about post-Cold War central European territoriality and resurrecting a burnished Russian past is at the core of the Ukraine crisis.
Ukraine and Russia share hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.
As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.
The balance of power in the region, Ukraine being a crucial buffer between Russia and the West, Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and Russian interests in the Black Sea accompanied by the protests in the Ukraine are the major causes of the ongoing conflict.
How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact India?
The war in the Black Sea region, which is both a production and trade hub, has pushed prices of crude oil, wheat, corn, cooking oil, and fertilizers to new highs.
Recently, crude prices touched a high of $139 per barrel, the highest since 2008.
Global wheat prices have shot up 91% year-on-year (y-o-y), while corn prices rose by 33% y-o-y.
As India is acutely dependent on imports of edible oil and fertilizers, consumers may see prices of these soaring to painful levels.
Besides, an impending shortage of fertilizers in the country ahead of the Kharif planting season can lead to unrest in rural areas.
Can government grain stocks shield consumers?
As on mid-February, the central stock of grains comprising rice and wheat was a staggering 54 million tonnes (mt), a surplus of more than 30 mt.
It is more than what is required for the country’s public distribution system (PDS).
With a record harvest of wheat set to hit the markets later this month, the government can liquidate its wheat stocks to keep prices in check.
However, if global prices rise further and the conflict in Ukraine worsens, India could end up exporting more wheat, thereby pushing retail prices higher.
Together with higher edible oil and fuel prices, food inflation could touch double-digit highs.
How will the price rise affect the farming community?
Farmers can now expect prices at a premium to the minimum support prices (MSPs) announced by the government.
Wholesale wheat prices are now higher than the MSP, while mustard prices, at ₹7,000 per quintal, are already 40% higher than the MSP and may cross the ₹10,000 mark.
However, steep prices of inputs will add to the cost.
What is the impact of high crude prices?
Historic data show a close correlation between a rise in crude oil and food prices.
Crude prices impact food prices more than even food production. Crude prices are hovering in the $120-130 per barrel range.
Even if this were to cool down to the $100-110 level, it would impact fertilizer prices and shipping costs significantly.
High crude prices also lead to diversion of food crops to produce biofuels, thus pushing up crop prices.
India has not raised fuel prices since November and a significant hike is expected soon.
What measures can the government take?
Other than liquidating its public stock of grain, the government can restrict exports to keep cereal price inflation in check.
As for edible oil, import duties have already been reduced significantly.
Retail food inflation, which rose to a 13-month high of 5.4% in January, is likely to rise further.
To ensure that the hunger situation does not get worse, it can expand PDS and enrol many more households.
On the fertilizer front, the government may have to secure supplies from Canada, Israel, and China.
The overall impact of the Conflict?
The Russia-Ukraine crisis will send cooking gas, petrol and other fuel bills soaring for Indian households and businesses. Higher oil prices add to freight/transportation costs.
Depending on how long global oil prices remain elevated, the tensions could raise questions on the RBI’s credibility in making inflation projections and upset the government’s budget calculations, particularly fiscal deficit.
The surge in crude oil prices will lead to an increase in India’s oil import bills, and gold imports could jump back up, keeping the rupee under pressure.
India’s imports of petroleum products from Russia are only a fraction of its total oil import bill and, thus, replaceable.
However, getting alternative sources for fertilisers and sunflower oil may not be as easy.
Exports to Russia account for less than 1% of India’s total exports, but exports of pharmaceuticals and tea could face some challenges, as will shipments to CIS countries.
Freight rate hikes could make overall exports less competitive, too.
Way Forward
It is important to reform the grain-management-cum-food-subsidy system to release precious resources for growth of agriculture.
This should be combined with taking giant strides to raise productivity and producing more nutritious food while protecting the environment.
The paradox of Indian policy making can be judged by looking at the Union budget for the 2022-23 which provides more than Rs 2 lakh crore for food subsidy while agri-research and development gets a paltry Rs 8,500 crore.
It is well-known that agri-R&D gives a much higher return in terms of promoting growth with competitiveness, and reduces poverty by making food cheaper and controlling food inflation.
Hence India should focus more on agri-research and development.
On the fiscal side, the Government, which has been conservative in its revenue assumptions in the Budget, has the room to pre-emptively cut domestic fuel taxes to nip inflationary expectations, stoke faltering consumption levels and sustain India’s fragile post-Covid-19 recovery through this global churn.
Buffer stock of pulses have been used to tackle price volatility of these commodities. Pulses from the buffer were used very effectively during the COVID-19 pandemic for supplying @ 1 kg per household per month free of cost to approx.
The lack of clear systems within social media companies that claim to connect the world is appalling. It is time that they should have learned from multiple instances, as recent as the Israeli use of force in Palestine.
Role of social media platforms in the context of conflict
There was no unpredictability over conflicts in the information age spilling over to social media platforms.
In the context of conflict, social media platforms have multiple challenges that go unaddressed.
Threat of information warfare: Content moderation remains a core area of concern, where, essentially, information warfare can be operationalised and throttled.
Their sheer magnitude and narrative-building abilities place a degree of undeniable onus on them.
After years of facing and acknowledging these challenges, most social media giants are yet to create institutional capacity to deal with such situations.
Additionally, they also act as a conduit for further amplification of content on other platforms.
Major social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter also provide space for extremist views from fringe platforms, where the degree of direct relation to the user generating such content is blurred.
Technology falls short
Misinformation and disinformation are thorny challenges to these platforms.
Algorithmic solutions are widely put to use to address them.
These include identification of content violative of their terms, reducing the visibility of content deemed inappropriate by the algorithm, and in the determination of instances reported to be violative of the terms by other users.
More often than not in critical cases, these algorithmic solutions have misfired, harming the already resource-scarce party.
The operational realities of these platforms require that the safety of users be prioritised to address pressing concerns, even at the cost of profits.
Lessons for India
The lack of coherent norms on state behaviour in cyberspace as well as the intersection of business, cyberspace, and state activity is an opportunity for India.
Indian diplomats can initiate a new track of conversations here which can benefit the international community at large.
India should ensure that it initiates these conversations through well-informed diplomats.
Finally, it is necessary to reassess the domestic regulatory framework on social media platforms.
Transparency and accountability need to be foundational to the regulation of social media platforms in the information age.
Conclusion
It is in our national interest and that of a rule-based global polity that social media platforms be dealt with more attention across spheres than with a range of reactionary measures addressing immediate concerns alone.
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Are you a beginner who has no idea about UPSC, but want to check if you have the aptitude for the same? Do you want to assess your performance and interest in UPSC before targetting 2023 preparation?
Then, we have got the perfect opporunity for you. Presenting, Civilsdaily’s UPSC CS 2023, Free-To-Register National Scholarship on 13th & 20th March 2022 .
Last year’s scholarship test by Civilsdaily has seen a phenomenal response and pan India interest for the test. Many toppers have emerged out of the test to be subsequently mentored in the Civilsdaily Foundation Program. So aspirants, ensure you don’t miss out on the benefits of the test.
An average aspirant, pays for Prelims Course, Mains Program, Interview Guidance, Test Series & Study Materials all separately. The fees then comes up to 2-3 Lakhs for one attempt alone.
Identifying this issue, Civilsdaily has designed the Flagship Foundation Course for 2023 aspirants. This course covers the entire 3-stage journey of a UPSC aspirant. From Prelims to Interview -1:1 Mentorship, Weekly Test Series, Classes & Study Materials will be provided.
Another benefit of the program is that it’s an umbrella course wherein an aspirant can access other paid courses of Civilsdaily for FREE.
The main objective of the program is to identify and nurture serious aspirants to become future UPSC toppers. And that’s why we have designed a scholarship test.
Our foundation course will be intensive yet personalised. You will be getting individual coaching on how to conquer the basics, develop analytical skills, inculcate conceptual clarity and acquire the necessary knowledge to face the unpredictable and dynamic UPSC.
Apart from conducting subject-wise classes that covers all the Prelims-Mains syllabus from scratch, aspirants will follow a customised timetable and will complete their revision on a daily basis to attempt our weekly prelims and mains tests. Once the test is over, they will get a strategy call from a mentor, who will clear their doubts and tell them how to improve their performance from next test onwards.
Simply put, like Ekalavya you will be getting a unique coaching experience that eludes other UPSC aspirants. Even aspects like Essay, Ethics and CSAT which is ignored in other normal coaching programs, will be covered over here with tests, mentorship, classes and notes.
If you take the upcoming free UPSC national scholarship test and come out with flying colours, you will get about 60% scholarship on the Civilsdaily Flagship Foundation Course.
Details of the Civilsdaily Free National Scholarship Test
Date – 13th March & 20th March, 2022.
Please Click on Submit after finishing the Test.
Mode: Online
Registration Fee – Free
Language: English
Time: 2 Hrs
Syllabus: GS Paper 1 (Preliminary exam)
No. of Questions: 100
Date: 13th March & 20th March
Time: 10 AM
Result: 27/03/2022
Why should you take the CD’s Scholarship Test?
1. Test your preparation on UPSC-CSE grade questions, at national level.
2. Chance to compete against the best. See where you stand.
3. Identify your subjectwise strengths, weak points, and problem areas before you start preparation.
4. Mentors will provide personalised counselling based on your performance in the scholarship test.
5. A detailed discussion will help you navigate through the challenges during the preparation.
6. Achieve up to 60% scholarship in our exclusive umbrella foundation course.
As the program is rigorous and involves individual attention, we can take only limited enrollments. Hence, we are conducting a Scholarship Exam to identify serious UPSC aspirants on 13th and 20th of March. Depending on your relative score, you can get up to a 60% scholarship.
We are looking for
1. Serious and hardworking aspirants.
2. Ready to dedicate a minimum of 5-8 hours daily.
3. Can complete assigned targets and tests without fail.
4. Only 1 thought in mind and that is – to clear UPSC Civil Services 2023.
5. Willing to take constructive feedback from mentors after each test.
Since its inception, UPSC-CSE has had toppers from various academic and socio-economic backgrounds who have cracked the exam with flying colours. It’s clear that one doesn’t have to go to Delhi or a coaching centre to crack UPSC-CSE.
If education, geographical and economic background doesn’t matter, then what does? Attitude, or precisely consistency. If you are persistent and adamant to clear UPSC- CSE and have given more than two attempts till now, then you must replace that with consistency. Because, being persistent might lead you to the door, but it’s consistency that unlocks it.
In last month’s Samanvaya 1-on-1 counselling sessions, our expert Civilsdaily mentors reached out to aspirants to address their concerns regarding UPSC-CSE preparation. These are the responses they often heard from them —
How do I start preparing after a gap of 3-4 months?
It’s easy for me to maintain consistency in GS Preparation but not Revision
I study daily, but can only remain focused for 2-3 hours. How do I improve?
My long working hours don’t allow me to study daily.
Why am I losing interest in completing a subject? It’ s easier to read a new subject everyday.
This week, we have decided to answer all these questions and take additional questions in our personalised & motivational counselling session
Key-Takeaways from This Week’s Samanvaya, Free 1-on-1 Counselling Session?
If you want to experience the same mentorship as Rishab Sharma, then here’s the good news – your first UPSC mentorship is on us and is absolutely free! All you have to do is confirm your slot now.
This prompted us to reach out to one of our students who is currently an IPS officer, Rishabh Sharma. He cleared the exam in 2020 with AIR 454. After his first attempt, Rishabh had enrolled in Smash Mains program underSajal sir and also attended our free interview program. Cracking the mighty UPSC-CSE the second time, Rishabh explains what consistency means to him —
UPSC doesn’t just test your intellect. It tests your patience, mental strength, your emotions, the very character of yours . As far as the journey of CSE is concerned you might know when to start, but you never know when the journey will come to an end. So be consistent and enjoy the journey.
Every topper follows a plan, a method or strategy that makes it easier for them to study on a daily basis and complete the traget modules of the day. In this free live counselling session, we will explain the many ways you can do to avoid faltering on your preparation.
1. The difference between a consistent study pattern v/s an inconsistent one. How UPSC-CSE becomes easier over time with consistency?
2. Social media distraction. How to avoid spending long hours on social media?
3. Number of ideal breaks everyday. Why is it necessary to reward yourself with a short break from time to time?
4. Best way to plan your timetable in advance? Why daily timetable should not be rigid but yearly timetable should be well defined?
5. How to remain consistent when you are not opting for coaching?
6. What are the practical methods to maintain regularity in studies. Tips to sustain the fire and passion for studies.
7. Why using Public Libraries is a way to remain consistent in UPSC-CSE preparation?
8. What are the 4 factors that determine if you can remain consistent for a year? If not, then why should you work on them first before starting UPSC-CSE preparation?
Get Motivated to Maintain Overall Consistency for UPSC
It’s understandable we are humans and not programmable robots who can maintain the same level of interest everyday. However, maintaining an overall consistency throughout our preparation is neccessary to clear this competitive and vast exam.
Our philosophy behind MENTORSHIP is to get you out of this Snooze cycle. This ensures that you are the BEST VERSION of yourself in this journey. If you are under the impression that mentorship is weekly calls you attend, then you are mistaken, my friend. Trust us, your mentor will be your ‘FRIEND, PHILOSOPHER AND GUIDE’.
TO EACH THEIR OWN – Every aspirant is different. Their strengths and weaknesses are different. Their time availability is also different. Identifying this is important so you don’t end up making unrealistic targets and lose momentum. Your mentor will make sure you start slow but remain consistent to build your confidence. Making your schedule structured based on our experience of working with 2500+ students is our first priority.
TRACK YOUR PROGRESS – When you see yourself grow, it becomes easier to motivate yourself to push boundaries. Tracking your progress can happen in many ways like mentorship calls or chat sessions or by regular tests. The idea is to ensure that you don’t go off track in your preparation, and even if you do, we have your back.
EVOLUTION – A constant guidance is important to bring consistency to your UPSC preparation. Guidance is not about clearing your doubts or asking you to study when you don’t. It is also about the evolution of your preparation. This is where you and your mentor work as a team. A constant effort to PLAN AND BUILD UP YOUR ABILITY to learn in a faster and more efficient way.
TALK IT OUT – The biggest hurdle in achieving your highest level of consistency is the emotional part. Every now and then, you. surround yourself with negative thoughts, you feel scared and depressed. Instead of resolving these emotional issues, you avoid them as it seems like a waste of your precious time. You have to understand that ignoring emotional troubles does not solve them. What your doing is building an emotional time bomb that may burst a week before your mains or prelims! This is where your MENTOR AS A FRIEND comes in. All our mentors have been through this journey. We understand your fears and anxieties. So, TALK IT OUT.
Don’t let inconsistency keep you away from your dreams.
Fill up the SAMANVAYA form given below. Let us know your problems and we will find a solution to it, just like our students say ” TOGETHER WE CAN AND WE WILL”. BOOK YOUR SLOT FOR YOUR FREE 1-0N-1 COUNSELLING SESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
How has Civilsdaily Mentorship, helped Aspirants become Toppers?
The most difficult challenge faced by EVERY candidate is inconsistency. Be it inconsistency in studies, answer-writing practice, covering the syllabus, or revision, every candidate finds it difficult to cope with. Buthow do successful candidates manage to FIGHT Inconsistency so consistently?
In UPSC 2020, Civilsdaily helped 80+ students secure ranks in their exams. In the top 100, every 3rd ranker was a Civilsdaily student.
A very recent success story would be Vishwa Shah, student of Civilsdaily Mentor, Sukanya Ma’am. Vishwa has cleared the GPSC exam to become the Deputy Superintendent of Police in Gujarat. He has penned a thank-you note yesterday. Heartiest Congratulations to Vishwa!
One of our other Civilsdaily Student, Shubham Nagargojecleared the exams in 2020 to become an IPS Officer. Shubham was gracious enough to let us know how he felt about Civilsdaily Samanvaya Guidance under Parth sir.
To know how all of them cleared the exam with our mentorship, visit the UnherdPodcast.
Now that results are announced for UPSC 2021 Prelims, out of 15 out of 25 students of Santhosh Gupta sir have been recommended to Mains. One such student, Rahul expresses his gratitude and extends his appreciation.
Most of our Mentors like Sudhanshu sir, Sajal sir, Santhosh sir, Pravin sir, Parth Verma sir and Sukanya Ma’am were UPSC aspirants themselves and have attended UPSC Mains more than five times and UPSC Interview more than twice. Hence their mentorship is always a blend of the best test series, comprehensive notes and current affairs knowledge.
All of them dedicate their time weekly to give 1-on-1 mentorship to every student where they discuss last week’s performance and next week’s approach.
Be it Telegram, Whatsapp or Habitiat channels, they are always available and clear student’s doubts in a turnaround time of 24 Hours.
Why Civilsdaily Mentors are the GPS for Your UPSC-CSE Preparation
Remember there is always light at the end of the tunnel and if you want to get out of the tunnel you have to follow the direction of the light! Our mentors’ give you direction which is divided into daily modules. All you have to do is study and complete them on time.
As every year passes by, we don’t get confident by the previous years’ performance and become laidback. Instead, we become more hungry to convert all our students into toppers.REGISTER HERE TO SCHEDULE YOUR FIRST FREE SAMANVAYA COUNSELLING SESSION IN NEXT 24 HOURS
How are Current Civilsdaily Students Gearing up for UPSC-CSE 2022?
Initially, our Civilsdaily student Smriti wasn’t confident about Prelims when she began her preparation. Though she had joined Civilsdaily in 2020, she started studying for UPSC-CSE back in 2019. At that time, Smriti had enrolled in multiple institutes. Though, most of these institutes had promised a personal mentor, she was unable to get in touch with them on a daily basis. Also those mentors never scheduled test-series on a weekly basis. Hence, despite preparing for a year, Smriti had scored only 35 marks out of 200 in her first test series by Civilsdaily.
She then started writing 20-25 test series over the course of UAP 2021 and in her last test, her scores have drastically improved. She now scores in the range of 130-135 marks in prelims’ and 110+ in mains’ papers.
In Smriti’s own words she describes her Samanvaya Mentorship Experience to be —
“Our parents provide us financial and emotional support, friends provide us moral support and the right mentor gives you logistic and logical support for UPSC. There are days when I felt I won’t be able to compete against lakhs of aspirants. That’s when my mentor, Ravi sir reminded me of my improvement and encouraged me that I can crack it with the same consistency. We need someone, who tells us we are performing well especially when we cannot see that ourselves. The mentorship at Civilsdaily helped me become mentally stronger as a person. In other institutes, mentors are allotted only for doubt resolution. But at Civilsdaily, I am getting end-to-end mentorship via value added notes, classes, test series and detailed evaluation.”
Similarly our another Civilsdaily student, Ashishsums up his Samanvaya experience with Civilsdaily mentor,Pravin Sir, “Because of Pravin sir’s support, I am able to understand a topic in lesser time.”
This is how Pravin sir evaluates Ashish’s Mains Test Series every week. After every test series evaluation, Pravin sir schedules a 1 hour call to discuss how Ashish can improve his marks and the sources he can refer for key topics.
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At the core of Civilsdaily UPSC mentorship, lies the fact that each one of you will have a unique journey while preparing for the exam. Some will get through on the first attempt without much effort while others will take both more time and more effort.
We want to understand you better to help you optimize your journey so you can focus on the right things and not waste time on the wrong ones. We are asking you to tap into the valuable experiences of mentors who underwent the same grind and realize the pitfalls and understand the shortcuts to make it.
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The Ukraine crisis will affect India’s energy landscape in many ways. This article analyses the impact and suggest the policy measures.
The trajectory of oil prices
The inflation-adjusted price of Brent crude is $83/bbl (as of writing, the nominal price is $116 / bbl), which is lower than the peak of $145/ bbl in 2008 and the average price that year of $100/bbl.
In other words, prices could rise much further and we would still not be in uncharted waters.
Factors affecting prices: The price trajectory will depend on the duration of the conflict, its impact on global energy demand, countervailing supply measures (for example, drawdown of strategic reserves, diversion of US LNG supplies to Europe, the Iranian nuclear deal which, if signed, could release up to 1 mbd of Iranian crude into the market) and whether in all this mayhem, the pipeline infrastructure currently feeding Russian gas into Europe remains operational.
Impact on India’s earnings: Our earnings from petroleum products (diesel, petrol, naphtha) will be adversely impacted.
In 2021, these products generated $39 billion in revenue and at 14 per cent, they accounted for the highest share of export earnings.
Impact on India’s energy assets in Russia
ONGC has a 26 per cent stake in the Vankor oil field, a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-1 LNG/oil export complex.
All these holdings have eroded substantially in value.
In India, Rosneft (the Russian national oil company) operates the 20 mtpa refinery in Vadinar through Nayara Energy.
Nayara is not sanctioned but the traders of crude/products might worry about transacting with an Indian company owned by a sanctioned Russian entity.
Four emergent energy trends that would affect India
1] Energy ties of Russia and China: Only last week, for instance, Gazprom signed off on an agreement to build a second gas pipeline to China christened “Power of Siberia 2”.
The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline has been pumping gas into China since 2019.
2] Emergence of US as second largest producer: The emergence of the US as the largest producer of oil in the world and potentially the largest exporter of LNG.
It has the capacity to blunt the impact of a supply shortfall but as it is controlled by profit-maximising private corporates.
3] The ability of Saudi Arabia to swing the crude oil market: It is the one member of OPEC plus with significant spares, low cost, producible capacity (approx 3 mbd) of crude oil.
The US has pressured Saudi to bring this volume into the market but they have, as yet, not buckled.
4] China’s dominance over rare earth metals: The chokehold of China over the rare earths, minerals and components that are required to effect the transition to a clean energy system.
Suggestions for India
1] Take into account uncertainty: Frame the polic around the expectation of continuing volatility.
2] Strategic reserves: Build up strategic reserves to safeguard against the unexpected.
3] Transnational pipelines: Revive conversations with Turkmenistan and Iran about a transnational gas pipeline.
4] Reduce dependence on China for minerals and components required for the transition to clean energy: Fast forward efforts to decouple the supply chain dependence on China for the minerals and components required for the clean energy transition.
And, finally bring in psychologists to get a better fix on the logic that drives the decisions of the energy autocrats in Russia, Saudi Arabia and China.
Conclusion
The Ukraine crisis throws up many learnings. But one needs particular emphasis. It is not enough to read the tea leaves of supply, demand and geopolitical trends to understand the trajectory of the energy market.
GS-1 Post-independence consolidation and reorganization within the country.
GS-2 Development processes and the development industry —the role of NGOs, SHGs, various groups and associations, donors, charities, institutional and other stakeholders.
GS-3 Awareness in the fields of IT, Space, Computers, robotics, nano-technology, bio-technology and issues relating to intellectual property rights.
GS-4 Human Values – lessons from the lives and teachings of great leaders, reformers and administrators; role of family society and educational institutions in inculcating values.
HOW TO ATTEMPT ANSWERS IN DAILY ANSWER WRITING ENHANCEMENT(AWE)?
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A lot has been written about the emphasis on “digital” in the 2022 Union Budget. But one aspect that hasn’t been talked about as much is the importance given in the budget to digital public infrastructure (DPI).
Significance of digital public infrastructure (DPI) in India
A global trendsetter: India is seen as a global trendsetter in the DPI movement, having set up multiple large-scale DPIs like Aadhaar, UPI and sector-specific platforms like DIGIT for eGovernance and DIKSHA for education.
Improvement in public service delivery: These DPIs have helped push the frontier of public service delivery.
Four key announcements in Budget: This year’s budget adds to the growing discourse on DPIs by making four key announcements:
1] In health, an open platform with digital registries, a unique health identity and a robust consent framework;
2] In skilling, a Digital Ecosystem for Skilling and Livelihood (DESH-Stack) to help citizens upskill through online training;
3] a Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) to streamline movement of goods across modes of transport; and for travel,
4]In mobility, an “open source” mobility stack for facilitating seamless travel of passengers.
Analysis by the Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research (C-DEP) estimates that national digital ecosystems could add over 5 per cent to India’s GDP.
Suggestions
But important design considerations must be set right if we are to truly unlock the value of these platforms.
1] Differentiating between tech and non-tech layer
We need to differente between the “tech” and “non-tech” layers of our digital infrastructure.
While India seems to have made significant headway on the “tech” layers, the “non-tech” layers of community engagement and governance need a lot more work.
The combination of these three layers is what is critical to making tech work for everyone.
Together, they embody what we call the open digital ecosystems (ODE) approach.
2] Get non-tech layers right
To unleash the true potential of India’s ODEs, we need to get the “non-tech” layers right, by prioritising principles around data protection, universal access and accountability.
In this regard, three specific non-tech levers are critical.
1] Data protection: Protecting the data of all users and giving them agency over how their data gets used.
The passage of a robust Data Protection Bill is imperative.
But we also need to go beyond the mere requirement of “consent”.
2] Address digital divide: It is important to address the digital divide.
Research by ORF, for instance, shows that Indian women are 15 per cent less likely to own a mobile phone and 33 per cent less likely to use mobile internet services than men.
So, we need a “phygital” approach that provides services through both online and offline options and strong grievance redressal mechanisms.
3] Institutional mechanism: As we push the frontier on digitisation, India must also focus on developing anchor institutions and robust governance frameworks.
Just as Aadhaar is anchored by UIDAI under an Act of Parliament, and the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission is anchored by the National Health Authority, every new ODE requires an accountable institutional anchor.
These institutions are critical for setting standards, ensuring a level playing field and safeguarding consumer interest.
Consider the question “India is seen as a global trendsetter in the DPI movement, having set up multiple large-scale Digital Public Infrastructures(DPI). List the various DPIs in various sectors in India. Suggest the changes needed in the non-tech layers of these DPIs.”
Conclusion
From Aadhaar and UPI to DBT and CoWin, India’s tech stacks are grabbing global attention. It is now critical to bring the gaze on to the non-tech layers of the stack, so that the potential of these platforms can be unlocked for every Indian.
