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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • [12th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Perils of decentralization with Chinese characteristics

    [12th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Perils of decentralization with Chinese characteristics

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. (UPSC IAS/2021)

    Q  ‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor. (UPSC IAS/2017)

    Q. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same. (UPSC IAS/2018)

    Mentor comment: In the Indian context, there is a need for improved infrastructure to support economic growth and facilitate investment, which requires coordinated efforts at both state and national levels. While prioritizing industrial growth, it is essential to balance this with the provision of public services to ensure comprehensive development. We can learn from the experience of our neighbour – China.

    China’s decentralized policy has become a threat to itself. China’s decentralized policy initially spurred economic growth. Still, it has now become a source of structural inefficiencies, regional disparities, ineffective investments, and governance challenges that threaten the country’s long-term stability and development.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    PM urged the states to compete with each other to attract investors. The difference was highlighted with India’s more centralised system where city-level governments account for less than 3% of total spending.

    • China’s extreme fiscal decentralization (in 1994), with sub-provincial governments accounting for 51% of government spending and having broad qualitative mandates, has turned counter-productive.

    What are the challenges faced by the Chinese local government?

    • Overcapacity as a Structural Issue: Initially, during the Hu Jintao era, the local governments prioritized industrial construction over public services to boost economic growth and political prospects.
      • This model led to competitive sub-national growth, resulting in structural overcapacity and wasteful investments.
    • Tipping Point Under Xi Jinping: As the investments made between 2009 and 2013 were ineffective, Xi Jinping focused on strengthening central control and narrowing directives, focusing on specific product lines like semiconductors, which often ignored market demands.
      • By mid-2024, 30% of industrial firms reported losses, highlighting the negative impact of overcapacity and ineffective local government spending.
    • Geopolitical Ramifications: Other countries view China’s overcapacity as a national security threat, particularly regarding tech-enabled products, exacerbated by China’s international conduct.
      • The geopolitical climate has shifted, affecting China’s ability to export excess capacity and creating challenges for local firms reliant on government funding.

    What were the effects of this on the Asian region?

    1. Positive Impacts:
    • In the Southeast Asian Region: These economies have become highly integrated into China’s supply chains, relying on Chinese intermediate inputs to produce goods for export. This has boosted trade and economic growth in the region.
    • On ASEAN Region: China’s upgraded trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), have strengthened economic ties and trade flows between China and its Asian neighbors.
    1. Negative Impacts:
    • Over-dependence on China: Southeast Asian manufacturers heavily rely on Chinese components, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
    • Increasing Trade Deficits: Growing trade deficits with China concern many Southeast Asian countries as they import more from China than they export.
    • Increasing Sanctions: Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia impose anti-dumping measures and tariffs on certain Chinese products to protect domestic industries.
    Lessons for Indian States from China’s Experience

    • Decentralization of Authority: Meaningful decentralization of budgets and authority to local governments, particularly cities, can enhance political accountability and improve service delivery, akin to China’s local governance model.
    • Investment in State Capacity: Indian states must invest in building effective governance structures and administrative capacity, ensuring local governments can effectively manage resources and deliver services.
    • Policy Innovation: Encouraging local innovation and flexibility in policy implementation can lead to tailored solutions for regional challenges, mirroring China’s approach during its economic reforms.
    • Balancing Central and Local Authority: Finding the right balance between central oversight and local autonomy can help avoid the pitfalls of over-centralization while ensuring accountability and effective governance.

    Conclusion:

    The overcapacity and export orientation model has now reached its limits due to China’s arrogant approach to international relations and drive towards self-reliance. Though we might see a jump in exports for some sectors, China faces an economic decline if it does not transform its political and economic relations with the world’s major countries.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/perils-of-decentralisation-with-chinese-characteristics/article68631225.ece

  • With an eye on Indo-Pacific, Germany seeks greater defence ties with India

    Why in the News?

    External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, currently in Germany as part of a three-nation tour, met with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin. They discussed various defence topics, including Ukraine, Gaza, and the Indo-Pacific region.

    Defence Partnership between India and Germany:

    • Late Engagement: Germany has been late in engaging India’s defence interests compared to France and the U.S., who have stronger partnerships with India.
    • Opportunity Post-Russia-Ukraine War: With Russia’s industrial capacity focused on the war, Germany sees an opportunity to enhance its defence exports to India. 
      • German defence manufacturers like ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems are already involved in projects like submarine construction for the Indian Navy.
    • Technology Transfer: Technology transfer is a key condition for India’s defence partnerships, and Germany’s ability to meet this requirement could shape future cooperation.
    • Complementary Systems: Germany’s Eurofighter and its future replacement by U.S.-made F-35s highlight Germany’s readiness to integrate its defence systems with Western platforms, easing potential interoperability issues for India.

    Exercise Tarang Shakti:

    • Tarang Shakti is one of the most extensive multilateral air exercises hosted by the Indian Air Force (IAF), showcasing India’s commitment to international defence cooperation.
    • This exercise marked the first time the German Luftwaffe (Air Force) participated in air sorties over Indian skies, symbolizing Germany’s growing defence ties with India.
    • It would become a biennial exercise, highlighting India’s intent to make such multinational military cooperation a regular feature.
    • Tarang Shakti was seen as a tryout for the larger Pacific Skies 24 air exercise involving France, Germany, and Spain, further emphasizing the Indo-Pacific’s growing military relevance.

    Present Dilemma of China:

    • Germany’s Strategic Interest in the Indo-Pacific: China’s aggressive actions, such as building artificial islands in the South China Sea, pose a significant threat to regional stability, international shipping, and trade routes, which Germany heavily depends on.
    • Germany’s Balancing Act: While Germany has clear political positions against China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific, its economic dependence on China complicates the situation. Germany’s increasing defence presence in the region is partly aimed at ensuring free and secure shipping routes.
    • Europe’s Shift in Focus: Post Russia-Ukraine war, Europe, including Germany, is recalibrating its foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific, recognizing the region as the future centre of global economic and geopolitical influence, which is driving greater German defence engagement in the region.

    Way Forward: 

    • Enhance Defence Collaboration: India and Germany should focus on deepening defense cooperation, particularly in areas like technology transfer, joint military exercises, and advanced systems integration to build long-term strategic partnerships.
    • Strengthen Indo-Pacific Engagement: Germany and India should align their Indo-Pacific strategies to ensure regional stability, emphasizing free trade routes and countering China’s assertiveness while balancing economic dependencies.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q To what extent can Germany be held responsible for causing the two World Wars? Discuss critically. (UPSC IAS/2015)

  • [11th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A panoramic view of the 2024 China-Africa summit

    [11th September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A panoramic view of the 2024 China-Africa summit

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q Increasing interest of India in Africa has its pro and cons. Critically Examine. (UPSC IAS/2015)

    Q “If the last few decades were of Asia’s growth story, the next few are expected to be of Africa’s.” In the light of this statement, examine India’s influence in Africa in recent years. (UPSC IAS/2021)

    Prelims:
    Consider the following statements:  (UPSC IAS/2016)
    The India-Africa Summit held in 2015:
    1.  was the third such Summit
    2. was actually initiated by Jawaharlal Nehru in 1951
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 only
    (c) Both 1 and 2
    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Mentor comment: Africa is a vital source of raw materials and energy that China needs to sustain its industrial growth. The continent’s potential for economic development aligns with China’s goals for resource acquisition and market expansion. Many African countries are part of China’s BRI, which aims to enhance infrastructure and connectivity, facilitating trade and investment opportunities that benefit both sides.

    During the past 24 years, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has emerged as an all-encompassing and effective platform for dialogue, interaction and planning between the two sides. African countries, despite their reservations and grievances, have found it useful to enhance their proximity to China.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    Due to the ongoing regulatory challenges, the Health Ministry has established a National Task Force to address healthcare challenges. 

    • The stagnation in reforms and public policy efforts could hinder the government’s ability to manage current and future public health challenges effectively.

    What are the main outcomes of the 9th Ministerial Conference of FOCAC?

    • Strengthening China-Africa Partnership: Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the China-Africa community with a shared future and elevating their comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership to new heights.
    • Adopted the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027): The Beijing Declaration on Jointly Building an All-Weather China-Africa Community with a Shared Future for the New Era was adopted, outlining the vision and blueprint for future China-Africa relations.
    • Enhancing Cooperation Mechanisms: It further provided the improving mechanisms like Bi-national Commissions, intergovernmental commissions, strategic dialogues, and foreign ministers’ political consultations to substantiate and institutionalize FOCAC.
    • It was decided to hold the 10th FOCAC Ministerial Conference in the Republic of the Congo in 2027.
    • Expanding Cooperation Areas: Both of them expanded their plans in Africa’s industrialization, agricultural modernization, and talent development for common development and prosperity.

    How will the 9th Ministerial Conference impact China-Africa trade relations?

    • Increased Trade Commitments: China has committed to importing $300 billion worth of goods from Africa, along with financial support to improve the quality of African exports and facilitate small- and medium-sized enterprises’ access to Chinese markets.
    • Focus on Industrialization and Resource Access: The conference will likely lead to better access to Africa’s lithium and cobalt, while providing African nations with investment opportunities and technological support.
    • Strengthening Bilateral Agreements: African nations are expected to negotiate more favorable terms, which could enhance local job creation and economic benefits for African countries.

    What are the key takeaways for India from FOCAC Summit?

    • Consistent Engagement: India must prioritize high-level political engagement with Africa, resuming its conference diplomacy after a nearly decade-long pause since the last India-Africa Forum Summit in 2015.
    • Financial Commitment: Historical ties and rhetoric need to be supported by substantial financial resources to enhance India-Africa cooperation effectively.
    • Reassessing Diplomatic Priorities: Africa’s significance in India’s foreign policy should be elevated, necessitating a proactive approach from Indian policymakers to align with this priority.
    • Need for Political Will: Stronger political will is essential to implement the practical policy choices proposed by Indian Africans for deeper engagement with the continent.

    Conclusion: The Ninth FOCAC Ministerial Conference consolidated China’s strategic partnership with Africa, while highlighting the need for India to reengage the continent with consistent high-level engagement, financial commitment, and stronger political will.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-panoramic-view-of-the-2024-china-africa-summit/article68626792.ece

  • UAE-India ties are rooted in affnity, trust, and respect

    Why in the News?

    During Sheikh Khaled’s recent visit, new cooperation agreements were signed, including those related to civil nuclear technology and renewable energy, showcasing the commitment to collaborative advancements in critical sectors.

    Evolving Bilateral Relations:

    • In 1972:  India and the UAE bilateral relationship has been formalized since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972, gaining momentum with high-level visits and agreements over the years.
    • In 2015: The greater push was achieved when the visit of India’s PM to the UAE in August 2015 marked the beginning of a new Strategic partnership.
    • In 2017: The relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2017, during the visit of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to India in January 2017 as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day.
      • The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner and a significant source of investment.
    • Today, the UAE hosts over 3.5 million Indian expatriates, which strengthens cultural ties and economic collaboration.

    Present Scenario of Strategic Development

    • Trade and Investment Growth: Bilateral trade reached approximately USD 85 billion in 2022-23, with goals to increase it to USD 100 billion by 2030.
      • The UAE has become a significant investor in India, with FDI from the UAE surging to USD 3.35 billion in FY23.
    • Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA): India and the UAE signed a CEPA in February 2022, with India being the first country to secure such a deal with the UAE. This agreement led to a 15% rise in bilateral trade within its first year of operation.
    • Regional Ties: India and the UAE are actively engaged in various regional groupings and initiatives such as the I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), reflecting shared interests and strategic alignment.
    • Energy Ties: The UAE plays a crucial role in India’s energy security, with strategic oil reserves stored in India.
    • Fintech Ties: Since August 2019, the RuPay card, India’s domestic card payment network, has been accepted at 21 businesses and 5,000 ATMs across the UAE. This makes the UAE the first Gulf nation to adopt the Indian payment system.
    • Cultural Ties: India participated as the Guest of Honour Country in Abu Dhabi International Book Fair 2019. Indian cinema/TV/radio channels are easily available and have good viewership.
      • The inauguration of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi’s Abu Dhabi campus marks a significant milestone, representing India’s growing educational influence in the UAE.

    Challenges in India-UAE Relations

    • Labor Rights and Kafala System: Concerns regarding the treatment of Indian expatriates under the Kafala labor system necessitate diplomatic engagement to improve labor rights and welfare.
    • Geopolitical Balancing: As India strengthens its ties with the UAE, it must navigate its relationships with other Gulf nations and maintain a balanced approach to regional conflicts, such as the Chinese market dominance and the Israel-Palestine issue.
    • Economic Diversification: While trade is growing, there is a need to diversify economic cooperation beyond traditional sectors like energy and real estate to include technology and innovation.

    Way forward: 

    • Strengthen Labor Rights Cooperation: India and the UAE should engage in continuous diplomatic dialogues to reform labor practices, improving the welfare and rights of Indian expatriates under the Kafala system, and ensuring a more humane and fair working environment.
    • Diversify Economic and Strategic Cooperation: Both countries should focus on expanding collaboration into emerging sectors such as technology, innovation, and renewable energy while maintaining geopolitical neutrality and balancing relations with other Gulf nations.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics?  (UPSC IAS/2016)

  • Africa can make India’s ‘critical mineral mission’ shine  

    Why in the News?

    India has invested approximately $75 billion in Africa, focused on energy assets and mining.

    • This includes reaching out to resource-rich countries in Africa and Latin America to negotiate access to critical mineral resources.

    Recent Initiatives by the Indian Government:

    • Critical Mineral Mission (Union Budget 2024-25): This mission aimed at securing the supply of critical minerals crucial for India’s economic growth and green transition.
      • It focuses on expanding domestic production, recycling critical minerals, and incentivizing overseas acquisition.
    • Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2023: Removes six minerals from the atomic list, allowing private sector participation in their exploration.
      • This also supports India’s drive for self-reliance in critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.
    • Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL): It was established in 2019 to secure overseas critical mineral assets. It Signed its first lithium exploration deal in Argentina in 2024, marking a significant step towards India’s goal of securing critical mineral supplies.

    Africa’s significance in advancing Global and Indian Priorities

    • Critical Mineral Reserves: Africa holds 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, making it a crucial partner for India’s supply chain needs.
    • Existing Partnerships: India has strong political, economic, and historical ties with Africa, including a three-million-strong diaspora and $98 billion in bilateral trade (2022-23), with a focus on mining and mineral sectors.
      • India has already invested $75 billion in Africa, largely for energy asset acquisition.
    • African Green Mineral Strategy: African countries are moving towards minerals-based industrialization. Policies in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and Namibia focus on value addition, offering India an opportunity to align its critical mineral strategy with Africa’s development goals

    Major issues in Africa 

    • Sudan and Syria Issue:

        • Humanitarian Crisis: Sudan’s crisis is particularly acute due to its strategic location and resource wealth, leading to a massive displacement crisis, with over 10 million people displaced since April 2023
        • Parallel Conflicts: Both Sudan and Syria have experienced severe internal conflicts driven by authoritarian regimes, regional power plays, and foreign interventions, leading to widespread human suffering and instability.

    • India’s Strategic Considerations:

        • Economic Interests: India’s trade with Sudan reached $2,034 million in 2022-23, with a significant trade surplus. India has also invested heavily in Sudan’s oil sector, with cumulative investments worth $2.3 billion.
        • Historical Ties: India has maintained strong people-to-people ties with Sudan, including educational exchanges and medical tourism. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s visit in 2003 reinforced these relations.
        • Humanitarian and Diplomatic Engagement: India evacuated its nationals early in the conflict, but the ongoing crisis may require continued diplomatic and humanitarian engagement to protect its broader interests in the region.

    • Challenges of China-Africa Debt:

      • Chinese loans to African countries amounted to approximately $170 billion from 2000 to 2022. However, Chinese lenders represent only about 12% of Africa’s total public and private debt, indicating that China is not the primary creditor.
      • A significant portion of Chinese loans is not disclosed in sovereign debt records, complicating the understanding of Africa’s overall debt levels. This lack of transparency raises concerns about the sustainability of these debts.
      • Despite concerns over “debt trap diplomacy,” China is unlikely to forgive or cancel debts but may consider writing off smaller, interest-free loans.

    China Domination:

    • China dominates the global critical mineral supply chain, particularly in cobalt mining in Africa (e.g., the Democratic Republic of Congo). China’s control poses significant risks for India, especially in terms of access and geopolitical influence.
    • Recently, China signed a $7 billion minerals-for-infrastructure deal, demonstrating its strategic approach to securing mineral resources in Africa.

    What are the opportunities for the Indian Government? (Way forward)

    • Collaborating on Infrastructure and Technology: India can support Africa’s critical mineral sector by building mining-adjacent infrastructure (e.g., railways, power grids) and providing technological solutions through its tech start-ups to enhance mining exploration, extraction, and processing.
    • Strengthening Diplomatic and Economic Ties: Leveraging existing partnerships and India’s deep historical ties with Africa, the government can work with African nations on strategic projects and value addition initiatives, supporting both regions’ developmental goals.
    • Reducing Dependence on China: By engaging with African countries for critical minerals, India can diversify its supply chains, reducing the economic and geopolitical risks posed by China’s dominance in the global critical mineral market.

  •  Singapore: A partner in India’s growth story  

    Why in the News?

    The PM’s upcoming visit to Singapore offers a chance to reflect on the current state of the relationship. India-Singapore ties are dynamic, continually presenting new opportunities.

    India-Singapore Bilateral Relations

    • Historical Ties: Diplomatic relations were established shortly after Singapore’s independence in 1965, with India being one of the first countries to recognize Singapore. 
      • The relationship has evolved through high-level visits and collaborations, particularly since the 1990s.
    • Look East Policy: Singapore has been pivotal in India’s “Look East” policy initiated in the early 1990s, which aimed to strengthen economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asia.
    • Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA): Signed in 2005, CECA has significantly enhanced trade and investment ties, making Singapore India’s largest ASEAN trading partner and a key foreign direct investment (FDI) source.
    • Defense and Security Cooperation: The bilateral relationship includes extensive defence cooperation, with joint military exercises and training, particularly in maritime security, reflecting shared strategic interests.

    What is Singapore’s contribution to India’s Growth Story?

    • Economic Hub: Singapore is India’s largest trade partner in ASEAN. Singapore serves as a crucial gateway for Indian companies seeking to expand in Southeast Asia, providing a robust platform for trade and investment.
    • Largest Source of FDI:  It is the leading source of FDI, among the largest sources of External Commercial Borrowings and Foreign Portfolio Investment, accounting for about 17% of total FDI inflows since 2000, with investments exceeding USD 136 billion over the last 22 years. 
    • Knowledge exchange: Singapore’s status as a hub for Indian talent, especially from IITs and IIMs, facilitates knowledge exchange and enhances India’s capabilities in various sectors
    • Cultural Exchange: The strong cultural ties, supported by the Indian community in Singapore, have enriched bilateral relations. Ethnic Indians constitute approximately 9.1% of Singapore’s resident population.

    How this relationship can achieve more considering the ASEAN region and Chinese dominance? (Way forward)

    • Strategic Partnership: The relationship can be further strengthened by enhancing strategic dialogues and collaborations in areas like security, technology, and sustainability, particularly in the context of the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Regional Connectivity: Initiatives like the Trilateral Highway, which aims to connect India with Myanmar and Thailand, can enhance regional connectivity and trade, positioning India and Singapore as central players in ASEAN.
    • Countering Chinese Influence: As China asserts its influence in the region, India and Singapore can collaborate more closely to address shared concerns, leveraging their partnership to promote stability and security in Southeast Asia.
    • Emerging Technologies: Focusing on emerging sectors such as semiconductors, green technologies, and electric mobility can open new avenues for cooperation, aligning with both nations’ goals for sustainable development.

  • Dealings at a China-Africa forum that India must track

    Why in the News?

    The 9th edition of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is scheduled to be held in Beijing from 4th to 6th September, 2024.

    About the China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)

    The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was established in 2000 to enhance the strategic partnership between China and African nations. It serves as a platform for collective dialogue and cooperation in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development.

    Challenges of China-Africa Debt:

    • Chinese loans to African countries amounted to approximately $170 billion from 2000 to 2022. However, Chinese lenders represent only about 12% of Africa’s total public and private debt, indicating that China is not the primary creditor.
    • A significant portion of Chinese loans is not disclosed in sovereign debt records, complicating the understanding of Africa’s overall debt levels. This lack of transparency raises concerns about the sustainability of these debts.
    • Despite concerns over “debt trap diplomacy,” China is unlikely to forgive or cancel debts but may consider writing off smaller, interest-free loans.

    African Priorities at FOCAC 2024

    • Economic Goals: African nations are focusing on enhancing trade relations with China, with a modest goal of $300 billion in imports from Africa between 2022-2024. As of mid-2024, trade has reached $167 billion, primarily dominated by raw materials.
    • Agricultural Development: There is a pressing need to develop a sustainable agricultural industry in Africa. This includes improving the processing of agricultural commodities and leveraging the expertise of countries like China and India to enhance crop resilience and productivity.
    • Green Energy and Industrialization: African countries are advocating for the establishment of refining and processing hubs to increase the value added from their raw materials.

    What are the learnings that India can have?

    • Continuity in Engagement: India should emphasize consistent engagement with Africa, particularly by organizing the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS-IV) to capitalize on recent momentum, especially after the African Union’s inclusion in the G-20.
    • Support for Industrialization: Indian companies are encouraged to invest in higher value-added sectors in Africa, such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals, to foster local employment and market development.
    • Private Sector Participation: Greater involvement of the Indian private sector is essential, along with innovative financing solutions like public-private partnerships to support projects in Africa.
    • Digital and Financial Connectivity: Utilizing India’s digital stack and establishing rupee-based financial transactions can enhance connectivity and reduce forex risks for African nations.

    Conclusion: India should deepen its strategic partnerships with African nations by expanding bilateral and multilateral engagements, focusing on key sectors like healthcare, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy. Leveraging India’s experience in these areas can help address African development needs while enhancing India’s influence on the continent.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Increasing interest of India in Africa has its pros and cons. Critically Examine. (UPSC IAS/2015)

  • [2nd September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: ​A silent democratic backlash in South Asia 

    [2nd September 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: ​A silent democratic backlash in South Asia 

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement. (UPSC IAS/2022)

    Q Critically examine the compulsions that prompted India to play a decisive roles in the emergence of Bangladesh. (UPSC IAS/2013)

    Q The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India? (UPSC IAS/2013)

    Q Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Pakistan borders including the Line of Control (LoC). Also, discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (UPSC IAS/2020)

    Mentor comment: India’s engagement with its neighbors is crucial for navigating the complex political landscape in South Asia. India’s timely financial bailout to Sri Lanka demonstrates its commitment to regional stability, yet it also reflects the challenges of managing relationships in a volatile environment. India must respect the democratic choices of its neighbours, avoiding interference that could harm relationships, as seen in past interactions with Maldivian leaders. 

    The article emphasises that India must adopt a more sustained and nuanced approach to engagement with its neighbours to support democratic processes and counter external influences effectively. India’s developmental support is a vital tool for fostering goodwill and stability in the region, as seen in its projects that have benefited local populations.

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    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    India requires “more sustained engagement” with neighbours to navigate the complex political landscape, implying its current level of engagement is insufficient to fully shape outcomes.

    India sometimes overestimates its influence in its neighbourhood for a few key reasons:

    • Political Crises in Bangladesh and Maldives: In cases like Bangladesh and Maldives, India failed to anticipate political changes and did not engage sufficiently with new governments. This shows India misjudged the situation and its influence.
    • Financial Crises in Sri Lanka: While India has had some successes, like bailing out Sri Lanka financially, events have often spiraled out of its control in places like Myanmar and Bangladesh. This indicates limitations to India’s regional influence.
    • Afghanistan’s Taliban: India anticipated the Taliban’s return but was sidelined by the U.S. in engagement efforts, now facing fallout.
    • Myanmar’s Military Rule: The military regained control in February 2021, complicating India’s position as conflict spills into its northeastern states.

    When things go wrong in the neighborhood, India engages in “unwarranted self-flagellation“, believing it could have prevented negative outcomes if it had acted differently. This suggests India credits itself too much in its ability to shape events.

    What is India’s Response to Neighborhood Challenges?

    • India’s missteps and misjudgments have cost it in some cases, while events have spiraled out of control in others due to external factors.
    • India has provided a financial bailout to Sri Lanka, has engaged patiently with the new Maldivian government, expressed willingness to work with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and re-extended friendship with Nepal.
    • Myanmar and Bangladesh pose serious challenges given their centrality to India’s interests.
      • In Myanmar, India needs to engage with ethnic groups in addition to the military and NLD to prevent civil war.
      • With Bangladesh, India requires a new understanding with parties, including those unfavorable to India, to keep external anti-India forces at bay.
    Strategies for India to Strengthen Ties with the New Maldivian Government:

    • Engage proactively: India should have engaged with President Mohamed Muizzu earlier, instead of being caught off guard by his huge election win in 2024.
    • Respect democratic processes: India should respect the democratic choices of the Maldivian people, and interfering in internal affairs or pressuring leaders can backfire, as seen with President Nasheed in 2008-12.
    • Expand cooperation areas: India should explore new avenues like trade, investment, tourism, and people-to-people ties can strengthen the relationship.
    • Maintain bipartisan outreach: India has built bridges across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka, while a similar approach in the Maldives can help India navigate political transitions smoothly.
    • Leverage developmental support: India can continue to provide aid and implement projects that benefit the Maldivian people can deepen goodwill.
    • Coordinate with allies: India should coordinate its Maldives policy with allies like the United States, Japan, and European nations. This collective influence can make India’s outreach more effective.

    Conclusion:

    India’s developmental support has been underestimated as a bedrock for fostering closer ties with neighbours and their people. India needs more sustained engagement with its neighbours to navigate the complex political landscape and support democratic processes.

  •  Pacific Islands Forum back joint police plan, maintain ties with Taiwan 

    Why in the News?

    Pacific leaders endorsed a significant joint policing initiative and rejected attempts by China’s allies to marginalize Taiwan in the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), held in Tonga.

                  (Note: India and Taiwan are not a member countries.)

    Why are the countries sticking to Taiwan despite the pressure?

    • Reaffirmation of Taiwan’s Status: The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders reaffirmed Taiwan’s participation as a “development partner,” despite efforts from China and the Solomon Islands to sideline Taiwan. 
      • Countries emphasize the importance of maintaining existing agreements from 1992 that recognize Taiwan’s role in the forum.
    • Support from Allies: Countries like New Zealand and the United States expressed support for Taiwan’s inclusion in the PIF, highlighting that any decision regarding the exclusion of parties should be made through consensus.
    • Resistance to Chinese Influence: Many nations recognize the strategic importance of Taiwan and its contributions against China’s increasing influence, leading them to uphold its involvement.

    Significance of Taiwan for India: 

    • Strategic Balance in the Indo-Pacific: Taiwan is a crucial player in the Indo-Pacific region, and  India’s engagement with Taiwan serves as a counterbalance to China.
    • Economic and Technological Cooperation: Taiwan is a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing and advanced technology, areas where India seeks to enhance its capabilities.
    • People-to-People Ties and Education: Taiwan offers significant opportunities for Indian students and professionals in education and skill development.
      • For example, in 2018, the number of Indian students enrolled in Taiwanese universities reached 2,398, marking a 56% increase from the previous year.
    • Diversifying Supply Chains: In the wake of global disruptions due to COVID-19, India aims to diversify its supply chains. Taiwan’s expertise in manufacturing and electronics presents opportunities for India to reduce its dependence on other countries, particularly China, for critical components and technology.

    What did the forum say on the Climate cash and French press?

    • Climate Finance Initiatives: The forum committed to organizing a “global pledging event” to raise funds for climate initiatives, with a goal of $500 million.
      • This decision was supported by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who emphasized the urgent need for climate finance in the Pacific, which is disproportionately affected by rising sea levels.
      • Although not officially on the agenda, deep-sea mining generated significant discussion among forum members. A company backed by Nauru plans to scale up ocean mining operations, while other members, like Palau, called for a moratorium due to environmental concerns. 
    • Concerns Over French Governance: The French government faced criticism during the forum for its handling of unrest in New Caledonia. A Pacific delegation is expected to conduct a fact-finding mission there, indicating ongoing tensions regarding French governance in the region and the need for improved oversight.

    Conclusion: India should enhance diplomatic and economic ties with Taiwan by establishing formal mechanisms for regular dialogue and collaboration in areas such as technology, trade, education, and healthcare. This will reinforce strategic partnerships while respecting the “One China” policy framework. 

  • [30th August 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Connecting the dots in the Kyiv visit

    [30th August 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Connecting the dots in the Kyiv visit

    PYQ Relevance:

    Q Russia and Ukraine war has been going on for the last seven months. Different countries have taken independent stands and actions keeping in view their own national interests. We are all aware that war has its own impact on the different aspects of society, including human tragedy. What are those ethical issues that are crucial to be considered while launching the war and its continuation so far? Illustrate with justification the ethical issues involved in the given state of affairs. (2022)

    Q “What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India’s National self-esteem. (2019)

    Mentors’ Comment: PM Narendra Modi visited Kyiv (Ukraine) and met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on August 23, 2024. This was the first visit by an Indian PM to Ukraine since its independence in 1991. The visit garnered significant global attention, particularly regarding India’s potential role in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    Despite India’s cautious stance, PM Modi emphasized India’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He advocated for a peaceful resolution through dialogue, stating “No problem can be resolved on a battlefield.” India has maintained a neutral stance, abstaining from UN resolutions critical of Russia while advocating for direct dialogue.

    Let’s learn –

    Why in the News?

    There are strong reasons to believe that Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine may have included a peace initiative as part of its agenda.

    India’s Consistent Foreign Policy Approach:

    • Non-Alignment and Strategic Autonomy: India’s foreign policy is historically rooted in non-alignment and strategic autonomy, focusing on balancing relationships with global powers and addressing territorial disputes peacefully.
    • Neutral Stance on Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, India has maintained neutrality, avoiding condemnation of Russia, which has drawn criticism from Western nations.
      • Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has indicated that India might be interested in mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,  if approached but would not initiate the mediation on its own.
    • Commitment to UN Principles: India advocates for respect for the United Nations charter and peaceful resolution of disputes through international institutions like the UN.

    A Possible Broader Strategy

    • Peace Initiative: The Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine involved a peace initiative, though enhancing bilateral relations with Ukraine appears unlikely due to India’s lack of dependency on Ukraine for trade, defence, or technology.
    • Balancing Act: The visit could be a balancing act following the PM’s visit to Russia, positioning India as a neutral party and reinforcing its role as a responsible global actor committed to peace.
    • Active Mediation Role: The visit may align with a broader strategy for India to take a more active role as a mediator or “communicator,” leveraging its ties with both Moscow and Washington.
    • Global South Involvement: India, as a prominent member of the Global South, aims to contribute to peace efforts, reflecting its role in international negotiations.

    Interests of Key Stakeholders

    • United States: The U.S. prefers negotiations from a position of strength. A temporary ceasefire or limited peace agreement facilitated by a neutral party like India could relieve conflict pressures and allow President Biden to focus on other foreign policy issues.
    • European Countries: Europe seeks a resolution to the conflict to address economic hardships and energy security concerns exacerbated by the war. A temporary peace could ease these challenges and provide breathing room.

    What should India do further? 

    • Leverage Diplomatic Neutrality to Facilitate Dialogue: India should continue to maintain its neutral stance and offer to facilitate dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. By positioning itself as a neutral mediator, India can help create channels for communication, potentially leading to a ceasefire or limited peace agreement.  
    • Engage with Global South and Key Stakeholders: India should actively engage with other Global South countries and key stakeholders, including the U.S. and European nations, to build consensus on a peaceful resolution.  
    • Balance Relations with Global Powers: India should carefully balance its relationships with both Russia and the West. By maintaining strong ties with both sides, India can ensure its strategic autonomy while contributing to a peaceful resolution.  

    Conclusion: Successfully mediating the conflict could elevate India’s global stature and align with his vision of India as a “Vishwamitra,” actively contributing to global peace and security. However, achieving even temporary peace is challenging due to deeply entrenched positions and the involvement of numerous international actors in the conflict.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/connecting-the-dots-in-the-kyiv-visit/article68582527.ece