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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Why the Gulf matters for India?

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over its statement condemning the comments made by two Indian leaders in retaliation to the insults on Hindu deities.

    The spread of religious hatred should be condemned in any form.

    But do you think that the onus of secularism has been bestowed only on a particular religious community?

    It is often observed that the other community is free to make blasphemous comments on various deities in guise of the exercise of their freedom of speech!

    What is the news?

    • The remark had triggered outrage in the Islamic world.
    • Qatar and Kuwait summoned India’s Ambassadors and handed over to them protest notes.
    • India has categorically rejected and condemned the controversial remarks.

    Why is Gulf outraging?

    • Barring the Jewish state of Israel, the 10 other countries of the Gulf region — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Jordan and Yemen — together account for one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population.
    • They are among the strongest voices of the Muslim world.

    Gulf countries and India

    • India has enjoyed centuries of good relations with countries like Iran, while smaller gas-rich nation Qatar is one of India’s closest allies in the region.
    • India shares good relations with most of the countries in the Gulf.
    • The two most important reasons for the relationship are oil and gas, and trade.
    • Two additional reasons are the huge number of Indians who work in the Gulf countries, and the remittance they send back home.

    How much trade does India do with countries in this region?

    • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) substantial oil and gas reserves are of utmost importance for India’s energy needs.
    • The GCC includes UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.
    • It has emerged as a major trading partner of India and has vast potential as India’s investment partner for the future.

    (1) UAE

    • The UAE was India’s third largest trading partner in 2021-2022, and second largest for both exports ($28 billion) and imports ($45 billion) when these are counted individually.
    • In terms of total trade volume, the UAE ($72.9 billion) was behind the United States ($1.19 trillion) and China ($1.15 trillion).
    • The UAE accounted for 6.6% of India’s total exports and 7.3% of imports in the last financial year, up 68.4% since the previous year when international trade was impacted by the pandemic.

    (2) Saudi Arabia

    • At a total volume of $42.9 billion in 2021-22, Saudi Arabia was India’s fourth largest trading partner.
    • While exports were low at $8.76 billion (2.07% of India’s total exports), imports from Saudi Arabia were the fourth largest at $34.1 billion (7%), up 50% from the previous year.
    • Most of it was crude oil.

    (3) Iraq

    • It was India’s fifth largest trading partner in 2021-22 at $34.3 billion.

    (4) Qatar

    • The total trade was $15 billion, accounting for just 1.4% of India’s total trade, but the country is India’s most important supplier of natural gas.
    • Qatar accounts for 41% of India’s total natural gas imports.
    • The UAE accounts for another 11%.

    How much oil does India import?

    • More than 84% of India’s petroleum demand, which included crude oil and petroleum products, was met with imports.
    • The share of Persian Gulf countries in India’s crude imports has remained at around 60% over the last 15 years.
    • India sourced crude oil from 42 countries in 2021-22, up from 27 countries in 2006-07. Hence the sources are now more diversified.
    • In 2021-2022, the largest exporter of oil to India was Iraq, whose share has gone up from 9% in 2009-2010 to 22%.
    • Saudi Arabia has accounted for 17-18% of India’s oil imports for over a decade. Kuwait and UAE remain major oil exporters to India.
    • Iran used to be the second largest oil exporter to India in 2009-2010, its share went down to less than 1% in 2020-21, due to US sanctions.

    Why Gulf matters?

    Ans. Huge remittances

    • More than 13.46 million Indian citizens work abroad. If Persons of Indian Origin are added, this number goes up to over 32 million.
    • Counting only the 13.4 million non-resident Indians (NRIs), the Gulf has the largest numbers.
    • The UAE (3.42 million), Saudi Arabia (2.6 million) and Kuwait (1.03 million) together account for over half of all NRIs.
    • In terms of remittances from abroad, India was the largest recipient in 2020 at $83.15 billion, according to World Bank data.
    • This was nearly twice the remittances to the next highest recipient, Mexico, at $42.9 billion.
    • The UAE accounted for 26.9%, Saudi Arabia for 11.6%, Qatar for 6.4%, Kuwait for 5.5% and Oman for 3%.
    • Beyond the GCC, remittances from the US accounted for 22.9%, second only to the UAE.

     

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  • What are Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs)?

    The CBI is in the process of sending requests to several countries seeking information under the MLATs about those involved in the online sexual abuse of minors and circulation of child pornographic material on social media platforms.

    What are MLATs?

    • The MLATs in criminal matters are the bilateral treaties entered between the countries for providing international cooperation and assistance.
    • These agreements allow for the exchange of evidence and information in criminal and related matters between the signing countries.

    Benefits of Treaty

    • It enhances the effectiveness of participating countries in the investigation and prosecution of crime, through cooperation and mutual legal assistance.
    • It will provide a broad legal framework for tracing, restrain and confiscation of proceeds and instruments of crime as well as the funds meant to finance terrorist acts.
    • It will be instrumental in gaining better inputs and insights in the modus operandi of organized criminals and terrorists.
    • These in turn can be used to fine-tune policy decisions in the field of internal security.

    Enforcing MLATs in India

    • The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is the nodal Ministry and the Central authority for seeking and providing mutual legal assistance in criminal law matters.
    • The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) may be involved in this process when such requests are routed through diplomatic channels by these Ministries.
    • Section 105 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) speaks of reciprocal arrangements to be made by the Centre with the Foreign Governments

     

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  • India Bangladesh Relations

    Two years after they were stopped due to the onset of the pandemic, passenger train services between India and Bangladesh resumed with the Bandhan Express setting off from Kolkata for Khulna and the Maitree Express starting its run from Dhaka for Kolkata.

    History of Rail Connectivity

    • The Bandhan Express was resumed by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna, the third-largest city of Bangladesh.
    • In 1965, this route was served by the Barisal Express, which was stopped due to the India-Pakistan war.
    • The Modi government along with the Sheikh Hasina regime restarted that with Bandhan in 2017.
    • The Bandhan Express was the second train to be flagged off after the introduction of Maitree Express between Kolkata and Dhaka Cantonment in April, 2008.
    • It covers the distance between Kolkata and Khulna via Petrapole and Benapole border route to cater to the demands of the people from both the countries.
    • The Bandhan Express was resumed in 2017 by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna.

    Beyond passenger travel

    • The governments of both the countries have been working towards strengthening the rail link between them, and not just through passenger trains.
    • In August 2021, the two sides started regular movement of freight trains between the newly-restored link between Haldibari in India and Chilahati in Bangladesh.
    • The Haldibari-Chilahati rail link between India and the then East Pakistan was also operational till 1965 and stopped due to the war.
    • This was part of the broad gauge main route from Kolkata to Siliguri at the time of Partition.
    • The two sides envisage at least 20 freight trains to cross the border per month on this link.

    Rail infrastructure

    • Once part of a single, seamless railway network under British rule, trains continued to pass between the two countries even after the Partition.
    • The infrastructure to connect the two sides through railways was, therefore, largely present.
    • Policymakers on both sides viewed this as an opportunity to deepen diplomatic ties using cross-border movements of goods and passengers.
    • Five rail links have so far been rebooted between India and Bangladesh:

    Petrapole (India)-Benapole (Bangladesh), Gede (India)- Darshana (Bangladesh), Singhabad (India)-Rohanpur (Bangladesh), Radhikapur (India)-Birol (Bangladesh) and the Haldibari-Chilahati link

     

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  • Pak delegation in India for Indus Water Treaty talks

    A five-member Pakistani delegation has arrived in India for talks over the ongoing water dispute under the Indus Water Commission between the two countries.

    Why in news?

    • India is building 10 hydro plant projects to cut excess water into Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is expected to raise the projects being constructed by India under the Indus treaty.

    What is Indus Water Treaty?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty: Equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers.
    • Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • It may be listed among the most successful international treaties as it has withstood the test of time.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    A tacit nerve of terroristan

    • Responding to state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan, India can escalate a water war , which can kill the crippling economy of Pakistan.
    • If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Need for a rethink

    • But PM Modi’s words equally hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • There is no reason to believe that India could start a water war with Pakistan on humanitarian grounds.
    • Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

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  • Understanding the nature of US-Taiwan Relations

    The US President made a controversial statement on whether the US will come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in case of an invasion by China.

    What is the Taiwan issue?

    • Taiwan is an island territory located off the coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.
    • After their defeat to the communist forces in the Chinese civil war (1945-1949), the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of China fled to Taiwan.
    • They transplanted the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC) established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland.
    • Since then, the PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.

    Game changer: Cold war affiliations

    • Meanwhile, the ROC retained its membership at the United Nations and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
    • The cross-strait relations became strained as a result of the Cold War, with the PRC allying itself with the Soviet Union (USSR) and ROC with the U.S.
    • This resulted in the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Rise of Taiwan

    • Taiwan transitioned from a single party state to a multi-party democracy.
    • At the same time that China reformed its economic system under Deng Xiaoping, and by the end of the Cold War they became economically entangled.
    • Nevertheless, they continue to compete for international recognition and preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario.

    How has the US’s stance on the Taiwan question evolved vis-à-vis China?

    • The very foundation of the US rapprochement as well as its recognition of the PRC is a mutual understanding on the Taiwan question.
    • This has been outlined in three documents — the Shanghai Communique (1972), the Normalisation Communique (1979) and the 1982 Communique.
    • According to the 1972 communique, the US agreed to the ‘one China principle’, with an understanding that it “acknowledges” and “does not challenge” that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
    • It maintained that there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
    • However, the US also established unofficial relations with Taiwan through this communique in the name of the people of both the countries.

     Why is the issue significant today?

    • As Taiwan’s democracy flourished, the popular mood drifted towards a new Taiwanese identity and a pro-independence stance on sovereignty.
    • The past decade has seen considerable souring of ties across the Strait, as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) became the most powerful political force in Taiwan.
    • The DPP government has been catering to the pro-independence constituency in Taiwan and seeks to diversify economic relations away from China.
    • China has always seen Taiwan as a territory with high geopolitical significance.
    • This is due to its central location in the First Island Chain between Japan and the South China Sea, which is seen as the first benchmark or barrier for China’s power projection.

    Why is China so obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is at China’s geostrategic calculus.
    • Moreover, its reunification will formally bury the remaining ghosts of China’s “century of humiliation”.
    • China under Xi Jinping seems to have lost its patience and currently sees very slim chances of a peaceful reunification.
    • China usually makes aerial transgressions in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
    • Also, this build-up of tensions is happening simultaneously and drawing parallels with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

    Is US strategy towards Taiwan witnessing a major transformation?

    • The US strategy towards Taiwan in light of the unresolved nature of the cross-Strait relations has been marked by what has been called “strategic ambiguity”.
    • This is under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979.
    • As per the TRA, the US has stated clearly that the establishment of bilateral relations with the PRC rests upon “the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means”.
    • It also states the US policy to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
    • Hence, there is no clear guarantee here that the US will militarily involve in a situation where China attempts to invade Taiwan, short of supplying “defensive weapons”.

    Enjoying the ambiguity

    • The US has for long utilized this strategic ambiguity with its own interpretation of the ‘one China principle to maintain its strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
    • It is in this context that Mr. Biden’s statements have made controversy.

     

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  • For a better South Asian neighbourhood

    Context

    Recent developments — in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan — underline the geographic imperative that binds India to its neighbours in the Subcontinent.

    Need for intensive regional cooperation for managing the new dangers

    • Working with the logic of geography has become an unavoidable necessity amidst the deepening regional and global crises accentuated by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    • As higher oil and food prices trigger inflation and popular unrest across the region, more intensive regional cooperation is one of the tools for managing the new dangers.

    Hope for transcending internal divide between India and Sri Lanka

    • India’s relations with Sri Lanka underline the importance of continuous tending of political geography.
    • Tradition of hosting political exile: India has had a long tradition of hosting political exiles from the region.
    • Whether it was the Dalai Lama from Tibet or Prachanda from Nepal, Delhi has welcomed leaders from the neighbourhood taking shelter in India.
    • Negative consequences: There is a dangerous flip side to this positive tradition in the Subcontinent.
    • India has paid a high price for the decision in the early 1980s to train and arm Sri Lankan Tamil rebels.
    • Hope for transcending internal divide: The current crisis in Sri Lanka raised hopes for transcending the internal ethnic divide in the island nation and rebuilding political confidence between Colombo and Delhi.
    • Material and financial support to Sri Lanka: Delhi’s unstinting support — both material and financial — for Colombo during this unprecedented economic and political crisis has generated much goodwill in Sri Lanka.

    Relations with Nepal and role of cultural ties

    • Possibilities in cultural geography: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha in Nepal, highlights the immense possibilities of cultural geography in reshaping the Subcontinent’s regional relations.
    • The idea of a “Buddhist circuit” connecting the various pilgrimage sites across the India-Nepal border has been around for a long time.
    • India and Nepal have come together in developing the Buddhist circuit.
    • Religion and culture are deeply interconnected in South Asia.
    • Developing all religious pilgrimage sites across the region, and improving the transborder access to them could not only improve tourist revenues of all the South Asian nations, but could also have a calming effect on the troubled political relations
    • That China has built a new airport near Lumbini and Modi is avoiding it points to the turbulent triangular dynamic between Delhi, Kathmandu, and Beijing.
    • Revitalising the shared cultural geography inevitably involves better management of economic geography.
    • Infrastructure development on Indian side: The last few years have seen the Indian government step up on infrastructure development on the Indian side and accelerate transborder transport and energy connectivity in the eastern subcontinent.

    Recent trends in India-Pakistan relations

    • Cultural ties: Despite their frozen bilateral political relationship, Delhi and Islamabad had agreed to open the Kartarpur corridor at the end of 2019 across their militarised Punjab border.
    • There is much more to be done on reconnecting the Subcontinent’s sacred geographies — including the Ramayana trail and Sufi shrines.
    • While parts of the region are aligning their policies with the geographic imperative, Pakistan would seem to be an exception.
    • Ignoring the geographic imperative: Given the depth of its macro economic crisis and massive inflation, one might have thought Pakistan would want to expand trade ties with India in its own economic interest.
    • But Pakistan’s politics are hard-wired against the logic of geography.
    • Delhi had little reason to believe that Pakistan’s new government can alter its self-defeating policy towards India.
    • But it must continue to bet that the geographic imperative will eventually prevail over Islamabad’s policies.

    Conclusion

    Realists might want to argue that current trends in the Subcontinent point to India’s growing agency in shaping its neighbourhood and that Pakistan will not forever remain an exception. For Delhi, the policy question is whether India can do something to hasten the inevitable change in Pakistan.

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  • US to host ASEAN leaders

    US President Joe Biden will host leaders and top officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Washington DC.

    About ASEAN

    • ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It brings together ten Southeast Asian states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – into one organisation.
    • It was established on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the founding fathers of the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • The preceding organisation was the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) comprising of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
    • Five other nations joined the ASEAN in subsequent years making the current membership to ten countries.

    Why in news?

    (A) Political purpose

    • ASEAN’s ‘Five Point Consensus’ to end the turmoil in Myanmar has not progressed since it was released in April last year.
    • In addition to discussing Myanmar, leaders are also expected to discuss Ukraine as well as regional issues.

    (B) Economic purpose

    • It is expected to discuss his administration’s economic plan for the region — the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) — during this week’s summit.
    • The framework will structure cooperation across several pillars from infrastructure and supply chains to taxation.

    What is Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)?

    • The proposed IPEF is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region.
    • IPEF will consist of four “pillars” of work:
    1. Fair and resilient trade (encompassing seven subtopics, including labor, environmental, and digital standards)
    2. Supply chain resilience
    3. Infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonization
    4. Tax and anti-corruption

     

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  • Ukraine conflict won’t make the US abandon Indo-Pacific strategy

    Context

    When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

    The Challenge of balancing China and Russia

    • There are two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question.
    • 1] Engagement with allies: When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it was widely asked in Delhi if the new challenges of European security would result in a dilution of the US’s strategic commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
    • Biden came to power with a determination to make the Indo-Pacific the highest priority of his foreign policy.
    • He is not going to abandon that objective in dealing with the unexpected crisis in Europe.
    • The assumption that China was the principal challenge and Russia was less of a threat led Biden to meet Putin in June 2021 to offer prospects for a reasonable relationship with Russia in order to devote US energies to the China question.
    • But Putin’s calculations led him towards a deeper strategic partnership with China
    • But America’s assessment of the Russian and Chinese threats has not changed since the war began in Ukraine.
    • The idea that China will gain from the Russian war in Ukraine has also proven to be false.
    • Expectations that Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will be followed by a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan have begun to dissipate.
    • Meanwhile, China is reeling under self-inflicted problems, most notably Xi Jinping’s zero Covid strategy and his crackdown on the large internet companies.
    • The costly foreign policy of China: Beijing’s prospects look a lot less rosy than before as the Chinese economy slows down and XI’s foreign policy turns out to be quite costly for China.
    • The muscular approach of China: In Asia, China’s muscular approach to disputes with its neighbours has helped strengthen the US alliances, create new forums like the AUKUS, elevate old ones like the Quad to a higher level, and consolidate the strategic conception of the Indo-Pacific.
    • 2] Coordination with allies and partners: Biden’s lemma to the theorem on a two-front strategy is a simple one — that Washington will address the simultaneous challenge in Europe and Asia not by acting alone but in coordination with allies and partners. 
    • The idea was rooted in the recognition that alliances and partnerships are America’s greatest strength and most important advantage over Russia and China.

    Engagement with Asia

    • ASEAN: This week’s summit level engagement with the ASEAN comes after sustained high-level US outreach to the region since the Biden Administration took charge.
    • In northeast Asia, the election of Yoon Suk-yeol as the president of South Korea has tilted the scales slightly towards the US in the continuing battle for influence between Beijing and Washington.
    • The US is also actively trying to reduce the differences between its two treaty allies in the region — South Korea and Japan.
    • Asia’s new coalitions are a response to Xi Jinping’s unilateralism and his quest for regional hegemony.
    • India’s enthusiasm for the Quad can be directly correlated to Xi’s military coercion on the disputed frontiers with India.

    Implications for India

    • The two parts of Biden’s answer to the Europe-Asia or Russia-China question have worked well for India.
    • Tolerance toward India-Russia engagement: For one, the US’s emphasis on the long-term challenge from China has meant that Washington is willing to tolerate India’s engagement with Russia.
    • Time for the diversification of defence ties: This gives India time to diversify its defence ties that have been heavily dependent on Russia.
    • The US emphasis on partnerships rather than unilateralism in dealing with the China challenge means India’s agency in the region can only grow.
    • The Quad allows Delhi to carve out a larger role for itself in Asia and the Indo-Pacific in collaboration with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    Contrary to the initial assumptions that America is on the retreat and the West is in disarray, it is Moscow and Beijing that are on the defensive as the war in Ukraine completes three months.

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  • The challenge for Middle Powers like India, France and Germany

    Context

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to European capitals should help both sides acquire a better understanding of each other’s security concerns. Whether it will fundamentally alter equations remains to be seen.

    New India-EU equation

    • As “Middle Powers”, countries like France, Germany and India should seek policy space for themselves and not be forced into taking positions by the Big Powers — the United States, China and Russia.
    • The EU is understandably concerned about Russian aggressiveness in Europe.
    •  ndia is equally concerned about Chinese aggressiveness in Asia. 
    • Even after Russia has sought to tear down the post-Cold War security structure in Europe, India has stayed the course in its equations both with Russia and the European Union.

    Division of national and group agenda and its implications for India

    • While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the context in which Modi visited Europe and the head of the European Union visited India, the fact is that the agenda at bilateral meetings with individual European countries has generally been very different from the agenda that the EU prefers to focus on.
    • While individual European nations, especially Germany and France, focus on their own strategic and business interests, including defence equipment sales, the EU retains the remit for negotiating trade and investment rules.
    • Problem for India: This division of national and group agendas has often posed a problem for India because individual countries cannot offer bilateral market access in exchange for bilateral defence deals.
    • So the French will sell Rafale jets in the name of strategic partnership but they cannot offer a trade and investment deal that Brussels will not allow Paris to strike with India.
    • While the EU and G7 may now wish to derisk, if not decouple, from aggressively rising China, how much they would be able to do in this regard and what they would be willing to do to help a slowly rising India remains to be seen.

    Way forward

    • For India’s part, it is not clear at the moment how much and what it can unilaterally offer Europe beyond the promise of standing up to China or reducing dependence on Russia.
    • Challenge for the three middle powers lies in combine their “strength and stability” to ensure “peace and tranquillity” in their respective neighbourhoods.
    • If middle powers like Brazil, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa and others can work together they may well be able to impose some discipline on the three big powers — China, Russia and the US.

    Conclusion

    At a time when big powers lurking behind in seeking to stabilise and shape the global order middle powers need to act to balance the influence exerted by the big powers.

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  • India-Germany relations

    Context

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Berlin for the sixth Indo-German Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC) is significant for its timing and substantial results.

    Strategic and economic importance of India-German ties

    • The timing of the IGC, which Germany chose not to delay, showed outreach to India and the Indo-Pacific.
    • Impact of pandemic on economy: The pandemic hit German economy and sanctions on Russia will further dent its prospects.
    • The country requires new markets for trade and investment.
    • India is an important partner in this regard due to its sustained economic growth and market size.
    • Ukraine crisis: The Ukraine crisis created an urgency to engage with India as part of Germany’s fledgling Indo-Pacific policy.

    Opportunities for India

    • As Germany does the reassessment of China’s role in world affairs it creates an opportunity for India.
    • The Bundestag will discuss the situation of Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang on May 7.
    • Any departures from China will bring business engagement to India.
    • Germany and India do not have a traditional strategic partnership.
    • It is a green partnership based on trade, investment, technology, functional collaboration, skill development, and sustainability.
    • There are several initiatives like the Indo-German energy forum, environmental forum, partnership on urban mobility, skill development and science and technology.
    • The biggest gain from the IGC has been the Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) establishing the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership.
    • This will raise the quality and quantum of the existing partnership between the two countries.
    • Germany is reaching out with new and additional financing of €10 billion to fund green projects in India under public, private and PPP models.
    • To support this, a ministerial segment is being introduced under the IGC.
    • The IGC is the only such format that India has with any country.
    • Another significant development is the JDI on Triangular Development Cooperation for projects in third countries.
    • This will provide avenues to work together in the Indo-Pacific, Africa and beyond.
    • The Indo-German Education Partnership, which the German Bundestag passed in 2016 as a New Passage to India, has borne fruit — from about 4,000 students in 2015, there are nearly 29,000 Indian students in Germany.
    • The Indo-German Science and Technology Centre has made valuable contributions.
    • Now, under the energy partnership, the Green Hydrogen Task Force will develop a Green Hydrogen Roadmap.
    • This will attempt to take R&D to the level of commercialisation.
    • The JDI on migration and mobility is an important step taken during this IGC.

    Conclusion

    A new period is reflecting new priorities in view of crises like the pandemic, the economic downturn and now, Ukraine. The German response to India as evidenced through the IGC has been promising. Both sides may justifiably call it a defining moment in the Indo-German partnership.

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