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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • India-UAE free trade agreement

    Context

    India has embarked on a new journey — a new free trade agreement (FTA) journey to be precise — with renewed zeal and vigor.

    India’s revamped FTA strategy

    • Gaining meaningful market access: India’s approach towards FTAs is now focusing more on gaining meaningful market access and facilitating the Indian industry’s integration into global value chains.
    • Under the revamped FTA strategy, the Government of India has prioritized at least six countries or regions to deal with, in which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) figures at the top of the list for an early harvest deal.
    • The others are the United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia, Canada, Israel, and a group of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
    • The early harvest deal is to be enlarged into a comprehensive FTA in due course of time.

    Why does the FTA with UAE matter?

    • Important economic hub: The UAE has emerged as an important economic hub not just within the context of the Middle East/West Asia, but also globally.
    • Strategic location: The UAE, due to its strategic location, has emerged as an important economic centre in the world.
    • Although the UAE has diversified its economy, ‘the hydrocarbon sector remains very important followed by services and manufacturing.
    • Within services, financial services, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate and business services are the main contributors.
    • As part of the GCC, the UAE has strong economic ties with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, meaning the UAE shares a common market and a customs union with these nations.
    • Under the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) Agreement, the UAE has free trade access to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Palestine, Syria, Libya, and Yemen.

    India-UAE trade and investment ties

    • India and the UAE established diplomatic relations in 1972.
    • The India-UAE total trade merchandise has been valued at U.S.$52.76 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year 2021-22, making the UAE India’s third-largest trading partner.
    • As India and the UAE strive to further deepen trade and investment ties, the soon-to-be-announced early harvest agreement comes at the most opportune time.
    • The aim is to boost bilateral merchandise trade to above U.S.$100 billion and services trade to U.S.$15 billion in five years.
    • Attractive export market: As we are witnessing a big turnaround in manufacturing, the UAE would be an attractive export market for Indian electronics, automobiles, and other engineering products.
    • Ninth biggest investor: The UAE’s investment in India is estimated to be around U.S.$11.67 billion, which makes it the ninth biggest investor in India.
    • On the other hand, many Indian companies have set up manufacturing units either as joint ventures or in Special Economic Zones for cement, building materials, textiles, engineering products, consumer electronics, etc.

    Challenges

    • The UAE tariff structure is bound with the GCC, and the applied average tariff rate is 5%. Therefore, the scope of addressing Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) becomes very important.
    • The reflection of NTBs can be seen through Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) which have mostly been covered by Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). The UAE has 451 SPS notifications.
    • Most of the notifications are related to consumer information, labelling, licensing or permit requirements and import monitoring and surveillance requirements.
    • These compliances pose a challenge for Indian exporters.

    Conclusion

    This FTA with the UAE will pave the way for India to enter the UAE’s strategic location, and have relatively easy access to the Africa market and its various trade partners which can help India to become a part of that supply chain, especially in handlooms, handicrafts, textiles and pharma.

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  • India must prioritise stability in Myanmar

    Context

    One year ago, the military in Myanmar attempted to grab power from the elected civilian government in a dramatic coup. Meanwhile, the deposed civilian lawmakers who were elected in free-and-fair elections in November 2020 put together their own government known as the National Unity Government (NUG).

    The current situation in Myanmar

    • The coup faced popular resistance from the first day, with mass protests bringing the country to a halt.
    • According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, as of January 28, 1,499 civilians have been killed in Myanmar since the coup.
    • Dozens of civilian militias, called People’s Defence Forces (PDF), now armed with more sophisticated weapons, mushroomed in nearly every region and state.
    • Today, the military is having to fight on multiple fronts, as even powerful ethnic armed groups in the north, northwest, and east have joined forces with the PDFs.

    India’s approach towards situation in Myanmar

    • Balanced approach: Since the coup, India has taken a balanced diplomatic approach on Myanmar, calling for restraint, restoration of democracy, and release of political prisoners, but also maintaining its lines of communication with the military.
    • Avoiding sanctions: India has also firmly stayed away from imposing sanctions on the junta.

    Why does India need to recalibrate its approach?

    • The last 12 months have made it clear that the military is incapable of providing the kind of political, economic, and social stability that India needs in Myanmar to advance its interests, including development projects.
    • Public faith in the military as a state institution is at its lowest.
    • Northeastern border issue: For New Delhi, India’s Northeastern border with Myanmar remains on top of the bilateral agenda.
    • However, even on this, the military has damaged whatever semblance of stability was left.
    • Sagaing region, which borders three Northeast Indian states, has seen the highest number of clashes so far.
    • Chin state, bordering Mizoram and Manipur, has seen dramatic military offensives in civilian areas, which have forced thousands to flee into India.
    • The Myanmar military has roped in Manipuri insurgents as mercenaries to attack anti-junta forces, in exchange for safe haven.

    Way forward

    • New Delhi must reconsider its partnerships in Myanmar and invest in those entities that can not only provide a stable political environment overall but also effectively secure its security interests along the border.
    • The NUG enjoys much more mass popularity than the military, which means it is in a position to restore calm.
    • China has strong links with ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, but not with the new PDFs.
    • So, if India really wants to offset Chinese influence in Myanmar, it needs to take this opportunity to forge new friendships.

    Conclusion

    It is time India rapidly expanded its links with these entities, instead of playing by the old rules.

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  • Back in news: Liberation of Goa

    The PM recently took a jibe at then PM Nehru, saying that it could have liberated Goa in 1947 itself had Nehru sent the Indian Army there.

    What is the news?

    • Goa was liberated 15 years after India attained freedom.
    • PM Modi accused Nehru as guilty of leaving satyagrahis in the dismay, refusing to send the Indian Army to liberate Goa, even after 25 of them were shot dead by the Portuguese Army.

    Goa’s Colonization: A backgrounder

    • Goa became a Portuguese colony in 1510, when Admiral Afonso de Albuquerque defeated the forces of the sultan of Bjiapur, Yusuf Adil Shah.
    • The next four and a half centuries saw one of Asia’s longest colonial encounters — Goa found itself at the intersection of competing regional and global powers.
    • It received a religious and cultural ferment that lead eventually to the germination of a distinct Goan identity that continues to be a source of contestation even today.
    • By the turn of the twentieth century, Goa had started to witness an upsurge of nationalist sentiment opposed to Portugal’s colonial rule, in sync with the anti-British nationalist movement.

    Beginning of freedom movement

    • Tristao de Braganza Cunha, celebrated as the father of Goan nationalism, founded the Goa National Congress at the Calcutta session of the Indian National Congress in 1928.
    • In 1946, the socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia led a historic rally in Goa that gave a call for civil liberties and freedom, and eventual integration with India.
    • This event became a watershed moment in Goa’s freedom struggle.
    • At the same time, there was a thinking that civil liberties could not be won by peaceful methods, and a more aggressive armed struggle was needed.
    • This was the view of the Azad Gomantak Dal (AGD), whose co-founder Prabhakar Sinari is one of the few freedom fighters still living today.
    • Finally, Goa was liberated on December 19, 1961 by swift Indian military action that lasted less than two days.

    Recognition of Goa

    • The Supreme Court of India recognized the validity of the annexation and rejected the continued applicability of the law of occupation.
    • In a treaty with retroactive effect, Portugal recognized Indian sovereignty in 1974.
    • Under the jus cogens rule, forceful annexations including the annexation of Goa are held as illegal since they have taken place after the UN Charter came into force.

    Why was Goa left un-colonized?

    As India moved towards independence, however, it became clear that Goa would not be free any time soon, because of a variety of complex factors.

    • No immediate war: Then PM Nehru felt that if he launched a military operation (like in Hyderabad) to oust the colonial rulers, his image as a global leader of peace would be impacted.
    • Trauma of Partition: The trauma of Partition and the massive rupture that followed, coupled with the war with Pakistan, kept the Government of India from opening another front.
    • Internationalization of the issue: This might have led the international community to get involved.
    • No demand from within: It was Gandhi’s opinion that a lot of groundwork was still needed to raise the consciousness of the people, and the diverse political voices emerging within be brought under a common umbrella.

    Nehruvian dilemma

    • India’s global image: Nehru was headed in shaping India’s position in the comity of nations.
    • Trying peaceful options: He was trying to exhaust all options available to him given the circumstances that India was emerging from.
    • Portuguese obsession: Portugal had changed its constitution in 1951 to claim Goa not as a colonial possession, but as an overseas province.
    • Portugal in NATO: The move was apparently aimed at making Goa a part of the newly formed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military alliance. Hence the collective security clause of the treaty would be triggered.
    • Weak indigenous push: Nehru saw it prudent to pursue bilateral diplomatic measures with Portugal to negotiate a peaceful transfer while, at the same time, a more ‘overt’ indigenous push for liberation.

    Why did Nehru wait until December 1961 to launch a full-scale military offensive?

    India could no longer be seen to delay the liberation of Goa because:

    • Portuguese offensive against Satyagrahis: The firing incident also provoked a sharp response from the Government of India, which snapped diplomatic and consular ties with Portugal in 1955.
    • India as torchbearer of de-colonization: India got itself firmly established as a leader of the Non Aligned World and Afro Asian Unity, with decolonisation and anti-imperialism as the pillars of its policy.
    • Criticisms from African nations: An Indian Council of Africa seminar on Portuguese colonies organized in 1961 heard strong views from African as this was hampering their own struggles against the ruthless regime.
    • Weakening Colonialism: The delegates were certain that the Portuguese empire would collapse the day Goa was liberated.

    The debate in 2022

    • Politics needs to be charitable to history, because at some point it would be put to the same scrutiny and judgment as it becomes history itself.
    • Goa has seen 60 years of eventful liberation and successful amalgamation in the Indian Union.
    • It is more important for it to look ahead to its future than to rapidly receding, increasingly dim images in the rear-view mirror.

     

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  • India and the Great Power rivalry

    Context

    Germany has become a weaker link in the Western coalition against Moscow and Beijing.

    The US-Russia-China power dynamics

    • There is a convergence between China and Russia on a range of issues from NATO expansion to the AUKUS alliance. 
    • Despite their problems with the US, both Moscow and Beijing want a productive partnership with Washington.
    • Both Russia and China want to leverage the united front to negotiate better terms from America.
    • Exploiting the contradiction between Russia and China: Washington, in turn, wants to explore the cleavages between Moscow and Beijing.
    • Focus on challenges from China: Biden’s outreach to Putin last year was based on the premise that the US could better focus on the challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific if there was a reasonable relationship with Russia in Europe.
    • Putin is trying to take advantage of that proposition by raising the stakes in Europe.
    • Exploiting economic means: If Putin is focused on military means to rewrite the European security order with the US, Xi is focused on the economic means to alter the US ties.
    • Xi is making a big play for the Wall Street bankers who see merits in engagement with Beijing and lobby Washington to scale down the confrontation with China.

    The US resilience

    •  The chaos of American domestic politics and the continuing arguments between the US and its European partners tend to amplify the disagreements within the West.
    •  It would be a mistake for Putin and Xi to mistake Western disagreements for strategic divergence.
    • Consensus on challenging China: The last few years have seen the quick emergence of a new US consensus on challenging China despite the polarisation of the American political class.
    • The idea that the US can’t risk a two-front challenge with Russia and China is popular but mistaken.
    • Power of the US and its allies: Despite the dramatic rise of China and its new partnership with Russia, the united front can’t really match the comprehensive national power of the US and its allies.
    • India is now a strategic partner of the US and faces growing challenges from China.
    • In Asia, Biden has revived the Anglosphere (the AUKUS alliance with the UK and Australia), elevated the Quad to the summit level, and reached out to the ASEAN.
    • In Europe, the US is getting NATO in order.
    • Britain has taken the lead in the diplomatic confrontation with Russia.
    • French President Emmanuel Macron is coordinating with the US in dealing with the Ukraine crisis.
    • Beyond the rebuilding of US alliances, Washington has an important lever which is the exploitation of the domestic political vulnerabilities of “Czar Putin” and “Emperor Xi”.

    Challenge for India

    • New dynamics between two coalitions: India’s approach will depend upon the new dynamic between the two coalitions as well as its own relations with China, Russia, and the US.
    • As both sides consolidate their global coalitions, it will get harder to be in the middle.
    • India would like to see Russia find accommodation with the West in Europe; but if Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate further in Europe, Delhi is unlikely to let Moscow undermine its growing partnership with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    With the return of great power rivalry coinciding with India’s deteriorating ties with China, Delhi now stands closer than ever before to the West.

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  • Unitary Digital Identity Framework (UDIF)

    India has agreed to provide a grant to Sri Lanka to implement a ‘Unitary Digital Identity Framework’, apparently modelled on the Aadhaar Card.

    What is UDIF?

    • UDIF is apparently similar to India’s own Aadhaar.
    • Under the proposed UDIF it is expected to introduce a:
    1. Personal identity verification device based on biometric data
    2. Digital tool that can represent the identities of individuals in cyberspace and
    3. Identification of individual identities that can be accurately verified in digital and physical environments by combining the two devices

    (More updates awaited)

    Why such move?

    • SL has been receiving substantive economic assistance from India – totalling $ 1.4 billion since the beginning of this year.
    • India is helping the island nation cope with its dollar crunch, and import food, medicines and fuel amid frequent shortages.

     

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  • Anchoring the United Kingdom economically to the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    January this year saw the formal launch of negotiations for an India-United Kingdom free trade agreement (FTA).

    Momentum in India-UK engagement

    • Despite some potential challenges, there is a new momentum in the India-U.K. bilateral engagement these days with both sides confident of moving forward swiftly.
    • Greater role for UK in Indo-Pacific: Britain has made a trade pact with India one of its post-Brexit priorities as it seeks a greater role in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Brexit has necessitated greater access to non-EU markets, and the U.K.’s changing relationship with China requires a diversification of trading partners.
    • The FTA negotiations were aimed at achieving a “fair and balanced” FTA and cover more than 90% of tariff lines so as to reach the bilateral trade target of around $100 billion by 2030.
    • There have been indications that instead of the two nations trying to tackle all sensitive issues in one go, there could be an interim pact or early harvest deal.

    UK’s Indo-Pacific strategy

    • India is at the heart of the U.K.’s Indo-Pacific ‘tilt’, which has generated considerable interest around the world.
    • A range of factors have contributed for the U.K. to adopt a more robust Indo-Pacific strategy:
    • a) the trading implications of Brexit;
    • b) the U.K.’s changing approach towards China — shifting from being a major proponent of China to perhaps the most hawkish in Europe;
    • c) and the fact that the U.S. remains firmly focused on the Indo-Pacific.
    • The U.K. recognizes the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific to global stability and prosperity and has made clear its intentions to deploy strategic assets to this end.
    • The trilateral security partnership AUKUS has given London a greater voice in the region.

    Consider the question “Various factors have contributed towards enhanced India-UK engagement. Examine the factors and the possibilities it offered to the two countries.”

    Conclusion

    The U.K. is finally carving out a direction and purpose to its post-Brexit foreign policy and this prioritization has opened up a new window for New Delhi and London to quickly finalize their FTA. It is a unique “now or never” moment and the two sides seem willing to seize it despite the challenges.

  • India-Britain free trade agreement

    Context

    In May last year, Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Boris Johnson announced their shared vision for a transformative decade for the India-United Kingdom partnership. These words have now been made real.

    Transforming India-UK partnership

    • Doubling bilateral trade: The two leaders had declared their ambition to more than double bilateral trade by 2030, which totalled over £23 billion in 2019.
    • Reduce barriers to trade: They directed their governments to take rapid steps to reduce barriers to trade.
    • FTA: The groundwork necessary to begin work on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) had to be prepared by the end of 2021.
    • Both governments have already taken action; for example, unlocking the export of British apples to India and enabling a greater number of Indian fisheries to export shrimp to the U.K.
    • The big next step was the launch of FTA negotiations last month.

    Trade relations at present

    • Bilateral trade: The bilateral trade between the two countries stood at 15.5 billion USD in 2019-20. India has engaged with the UK in sectors like pharma, textiles, leather, industrial machinery, furniture, and toys.
      • Britain is among the top investors in India and India is the second-biggest investor and a major job creator in Britain. Recently, the Serum Institute of India has announced setting up its research facilities in the UK.
    • Indian Diaspora: Around 1.5 million people of Indian origin live in Britain. This includes 15 Members of Parliament, three members in Cabinet, and two in high office as Finance and Home Ministers.
    • India is already a big investor in the U.K. — especially in dynamic sectors such as fintech, electric vehicles, and batteries.
    • India has an extraordinary opportunity to transform its economy and society in the next 30 years, as it hits its demographic sweet spot, at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region where half the world’s people live and 50% of global economic growth is produced.

    Benefits of FTA

    • A U.K.-India trade agreement will stimulate growth and employment in both countries. 
    • Lower barriers coupled with greater regulatory certainty would incentivize new small and medium-sized enterprises to export their goods and services.
    • An agreement also means Indian and British consumers see improvements in the variety and affordability of products.
    • Strategic reasons: The British Government’s Integrated Review of our overseas policy, describes the world we are in; messier, with the more geostrategic competition.
    • It is one in which two dynamic democracies such as India and the U.K. need to work closely together to promote open economies.

    Consider the question “Colonial prism has long distorted the perception of India-UK relation. However, both the countries stand to gain by finding a fresh basis for sustaining bilateral relations. Comment.”  

    Conclusion

    An FTA would mark a new way of working between the U.K. and India. It gives a new framework within which the two countries can grow and flourish together, putting the colonial economic relationship where it belongs — in the history books.

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  • India- Central Asia Relations

    Context

    The inaugural India-Central Asia Summit, the India-Central Asia Dialogue, and the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in New Delhi — all held over the past four months — collectively indicate a renewed enthusiasm in New Delhi to engage the Central Asian region.

    Significance of Central Asia for India

    • India has limited economic and other stakes in the region, primarily due to lack of physical access.
    • And yet, the region appears to have gained a great deal of significance in India’s strategic thinking over the years, particularly in the recent past.
    • New geopolitical realities: India’s mission Central Asia today reflects, and is responsive to, the new geopolitical, if not the geo-economic, realities in the region.

    Factors driving India’s engagement

    • One of the factors driving this engagement and shaping it is the great power dynamics there.
    • Withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan: The decline of American presence and power in the broader region (due primarily to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan) has led to a reassertion by China and Russia seeking to fill the power vacuum.
    • India-Russia relations: Moscow considers India to be a useful partner in the region: it helps it to not only win back New Delhi, which is moving towards the U.S., but also to subtly checkmate the rising Chinese influence in its backyard.
    • For the U.S., while growing India-Russia relations is not a welcome development, it recognises the utility of Moscow-New Delhi relations in Central Asia to offset Beijing’s ever-growing influence there.
    • India’s dilemma:  In the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, New Delhi faces a major dilemma in the wider region, not just in the pre-existing theatres like the Line of Control and the Line of Actual Control.
    • India’s China challenge: India in the region might get further hemmed in due to the combined efforts by China, Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan.
    • If so, it must ensure that there is no China-led strategic gang up with Pakistan and the Taliban against India in the region, which, if it becomes a reality, would severely damage Indian interests.
    • Consolidation of Afghan policy: India’s engagement of Central Asia would also help it to consolidate its post-American Afghan policy.
    • Now that the Taliban have returned to Kabul, New Delhi is forced to devise new ways of engaging Afghanistan.
    • That’s where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Russia could be helpful. 
    • The announcement of a Joint Working Group on Afghanistan during the summit between India and the CARs is surely indicative of such interest.

    Russia’s prominence

    • In India’s current vision for a regional security architecture, Russia appears prominent
    • Countering China: By courting Russia — its traditional partner, also close to China and getting closer to Pakistan — to help it re-establish its presence in the Central Asian region, India is seeking to work with one of the region’s strongest powers and also potentially create a rift between China and Russia.
    • Joint defence production by India and Russia has been on the rise and the CARs could play a key role in it.
    • India’s non-critical stance on developments in Ukrain and Kazakhstan: This growing India-Russia partnership also explains India’s non-critical stance on the developments in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

    Challenges in India’s engagement with Central Asia

    • China’s dominance in the region:  China, which shares a land border with the region, is already a major investor there.
    • Iran’s role: An even bigger challenge for India may be Iran.
    • India’s best shot at reaching the CARs is by using a hybrid model – via sea to Chabahar and then by road/rail through Iran (and Afghanistan) to the CARs.
    •  So, for New Delhi, the ongoing re-negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are of crucial importance.
    • While Iran getting close to the West is not preferred by Russia (but preferred by India), if and when it becomes a reality, India would be able to use it to its advantage and join Russia in engaging the CARs.
    • Delivering on the commitment: Most importantly, India will have to walk the talk on its commitments to Central Asia.
    • Does it have the political will, material capability and diplomatic wherewithal to stay the course in the region?

    Conclusion

    India’s renewed engagement of Central Asia is in the right direction for the simple reason that while the gains from an engagement of Central Asia may be minimal, the disadvantages of non-engagement could be costly in the longer run.

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  • Delinking Depsang from the ongoing Ladakh border crisis is worrying

    Context

    In a recent television interview, the Indian Army Chief, General M.M. Naravane, argued that “out of the five or six friction points (in Ladakh), five have been solved”.

    Friction points in Ladakh

    • ‘Friction point’ are the points of Chinese ingress into hitherto India-controlled territory in Ladakh, where this control is exercised by the Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) through regular patrols to the claimed areas.
    • These ‘friction points’ are Depsang, Galwan, Hot Springs, Gogra, North bank of Pangong Tso, Kailash Range and Demchok.
    • By asserting that only one of the friction points is remaining to be resolved —  Hot Springs or PP15, Army Chief implicitly ruled out Depsang as an area to be resolved.
    • This attempt to delink the strategically important area of Depsang from the ongoing Ladakh border crisis is worrying.

    Significance of Depsang

    • Depsang is an enclave of flat terrain located in an area the Army classifies as Sub-Sector North (SSN), which provides land access to Central Asia through the Karakoram Pass.
    • The Army has always identified Depsang plains as where it finds itself most vulnerable in Ladakh, devising plans to tackle the major Chinese challenge.
    • SSN’s flat terrain of Depsang, Trig Heights and DBO — which provides direct access to Aksai Chin — is suited for mechanised warfare but is located at the end of only one very long and tenuous communication axis for India.
    • China, in turn, has multiple roads that provide easy access to the area.
    • This leaves SSN highly vulnerable to capture by the PLA, with a few thousands of square kilometres from the Karakoram Pass to Burtse, likely to be lost.
    • Nowhere else in Ladakh is the PLA likely to gain so much territory in a single swoop.
    • SSN lies to the east of Siachen, located between the Saltoro ridge on the Pakistani border and the Saser ridge close to the Chinese border.
    • On paper, it is the only place where a physical military collusion can take place between Pakistan and China — and the challenge of a two-front war can become real in the worst-case scenario.
    • If India loses this area, it will be nearly impossible to launch a military operation to wrest back Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan.

    Dangers of delinking Depsang

    • Invalidation of Indian claims: The biggest danger of delinking Depsang from the current border crisis in Ladakh, however, is of corroborating the Chinese argument, which invalidates the rightful Indian claim over a large swathe of territory. 
    • In sparsely populated areas like Ladakh, with limited forward deployment of troops, the only assertion of territorial claims is by regular patrolling. 
    • By arguing that the blockade at Y-junction predates the current stand-off — a ‘legacy issue’ that goes back years — the Chinese side can affirm that Indian patrols never had access to this area and thus India has no valid claim on the territory.

    Conclusion

    As was demonstrated by China in the aftermath of the 1962 War, there should be no holding back in painstakingly asserting one’s claims when it comes to safeguarding the territory.

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  • 30 years of India-Israel Diplomatic Relations

    A recent speech by the PM Modi has marked three decades since New Delhi established formal diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv on January 29, 1992, when P.V. Narasimha Rao was the Prime Minister.

    India-Israel Relation: A Backgrounder

    (I) Recognition of Israel

    • Both nations became independent almost at the same time, in the late 1940s, following a long struggle against British Colonialism.
    • Though India had recognized Israel on September 17, 1950, full-fledged diplomatic relations between the countries were established on January 29, 1992.
    • Their diplomatic relationship was previously based on popular consensus and only much later became official.

    (II) India’s reluctance for extending ties

    • The popular perception of Israel was negative as it was a state formed on religion and analogous to Pakistan.
    • This was because during that time India was a young state that needed to take into account Arab states’ numerical impact at the United Nations.
    • Furthermore, it could not afford to antagonize its Muslim population by establishing ties with a Jewish state.
    • Sympathizing the Palestinian cause is a by-product of these motives.

    (III) India’s shift towards Israel

    • Though India voted against a UN resolution for the creation of Israel, once Israel is created, India officially recognized Israel (in 1950).
    • But full diplomatic ties were established only in 1992.

    Reasons for India prioritizing Israel

    • India’s exclusion from OIC: The formation of an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in 1969 which neglected the sentiments of Indian Muslims by blocking India’s membership to this group by Pakistan is one of the primary triggers for the change instance.
    • Backing of Kashmir: India has received no backing from the Arab countries on the Kashmir Issue. There have been no serious attempts by the Arab world to put pressure on Pakistan to reign in the cross-border insurgency in Kashmir.
    • Support in crucial wars: Israel supported India during the Indo-Pak wars even before full diplomatic ties were established.
    • India’s US allegiance: With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of the US as a superpower, India started aligning itself with the US, and this further added to our improved relations with Israel.
    • Deviation from NAM: After decades of Non-Alignment and Pro-Arab policy, in 1992 India changed its stance and established full diplomatic ties with Israel.
    • Support at global forums: Israel has always been a vocal supporter of India’s permanent seat in the UNSC.
    • Technology: India’s world-class institutes of higher education could benefit from the strong culture of research and high-end innovation that thrives in Israel.

    Israeli interests in India

    • India presents a massive market for Israel’s manufactured goods and technology.
    • India has for long enjoyed great goodwill among Israel’s citizens as the only country in the world where Jews have not faced anti-Semitism.
    • There are many instances of Jews under Hitler’s persecution finding shelter in India including some that were said to have been facilitated by Nehru.
    • The minuscule Jew community was able to rise to eminence in various fields.
    • Israel cherishes its admirers in India for its ability to thrive in spite of very adverse situations in its short history as an independent nation.

    Collaborations between India and Israel

    [A] Military collaboration

    • Against terrorism: India and Israel have increased collaboration in military ventures since both nations face the threats of rising radical terrorism and separatism.
    • Arms trade: India is the largest buyer of Israeli military equipment and Israel is the second-largest defense supplier to India after Russia.
    • Security: Working groups in areas of border management, internal security and public safety, police modernization, and capacity building for combating crime, crime prevention, and cybercrime were established.
    • Defence R&D: IAI is developing the Barak 8 missile for the Indian Navy and Indian Air Force which is capable of protecting sea vessels and ground facilities from aircraft and cruise missiles.

    [B] Political collaboration

    • Since the up-gradation of relations in 1992, defense and agriculture have become the two main pillars of the bilateral engagement.
    • The political ties have become especially cordial under the Modi Government.
    • In 2017, Prime Minister Modi became the first-ever Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel.

    [C] Agriculture collaboration

    • India has chosen Israel as a strategic partner (G2G) in the field of agriculture.
    • This partnership evolved into the Indo-Israel Agricultural Project (IIAP), under the Indo-Israel Action Plan, based on an MOU signed by Indian and Israeli ministers of Agriculture in 2006.
    • The partnership aims to introduce crop diversity, increase productivity & increase water use efficiency.
    • India has a lot to learn from the dryland agriculture of Israel. The Economic Survey 2016-17 batted for Indo-Israel cooperation in drip-irrigation technologies.

    [D] Economic collaboration

    • India is Israel’s third-largest trading partner in Asia after China and Hong Kong.
    • In recent years, bilateral trade has diversified to include several sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, IT and telecom, and homeland security.
    • Major exports from India to Israel include precious stones and metals, chemical products, textiles, etc.
    • Major imports from Israel include chemicals and mineral products, base metals and machinery, and transport equipment. Potash is a major item of Israel’s exports to India.

    Various deterrents in ties

    • Bilateral Trade and investment still below potential: From just $200 million in 1992, bilateral trade (excluding defense) peaked at about $5 billion in 2012 but since then it has dropped to about $4 billion. Also, bilateral trade has not diversified much—diamonds and chemicals still make up for the large chunk of the pie.
    • Connectivity between the two countries is still poor with just one direct flight from Mumbai 3 times a week and no direct flights from Delhi.
    • Historical retrenchment: India’s consistent support for a sovereign, independent, viable, and united Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, living within secure and recognized borders, side by side, and at peace with Israel and Pro-Arab stance has been a sticky point.
    • Limited People to People ties and cultural differences: Israelis and Indian approach business differently and often find it difficult to get on the same page.
    • India’s support for Palestinian Cause: Though formal ties were established in 1992, the ideological divide resurfaces time and again due to India’s affinity for Palestine.

    Way forward

    • Indian policy appears to be guided primarily by strategic considerations.
    • There is a strong need to use soft power diplomacy to build people-to-people bridges and to add to economic benefits through robust inter-country tourism.
    • The Indian and Israeli markets do not compete with one another but complete one another.
    • A potential quadrilateral with US and UAE can help this relationship soar to new heights.

     

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