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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • How a trade deal with EU could shape up?

    After signing comprehensive economic and trade agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia, India has stepped up efforts to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU).

    What is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

    • A FTA is a pact between two or more nations to reduce barriers to imports and exports among them.
    • Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange.
    • The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.
    • Countries often agree to FTAs if their economic structures are complementary, not competitive.

    India-EU Trade Ties

    • The EU is India’s third largest trading partner, accounting for 11.8% of India’s total trade in 2020-21, after the US (12.61%) and China (12.59%).
    • It is India’s second-largest export destination after the US.
    • India is the EU’s tenth largest trading partner, accounting for 1.8% of the EU’s total trade in goods in 2020.
    • The EU is also a major source of FDI in India. Between April 2000 and March 2021, FDI flows from the EU to India totalled $88.32 billion.

    How would the FTA help India?

    • It will help Indian exporters gain competitive advantage in the EU markets while helping domestic manufacturers get cheaper access to imports from the EU.
    • India’s major exports to the EU include mineral fuels, mechanical appliances, electrical and electronic machineries, organic chemicals, automobiles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, precious stones, and iron and steel products.
    • The untapped export potential for India in the seven major markets of the EU—Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, and Switzerland—is around $26.8 billion.

    Why is the FTA important for the EU?

    • After Brexit, the EU is trying to clinch trade deals to diversify supply chains and find profitable exporting destinations for European companies.
    • The EU is looking for a large market as intra-EU trade remains stagnant and trade with the UK shrinks because of new institutional trade barriers.
    • The FTA with India will also help the EU reduce trade ties with Russia.

    What are the key stumbling blocks?

    • A major point of contention has been the EU’s demand for  reduction in India’s tariff rate.
    • Earlier talks did not resolve issues involving trade in agriculture and services, digital trade, intellectual property rights, and commitments on sustainable development issues such as environmental, social, and labour rights.
    • Visa requirements and work permits for Indian workers to the EU have been a major bone of contention.
    • Restrictions on transfer of personal data from the EU to other countries is a barrier for trade in digital services.

    What is the likelihood of an agreement?

    • The two sides have set the ball rolling on the FTA.
    • The president of the European Commission recently agreed to establish a trade and technology council to deliberate on data protection regulations and strengthening digital trade between India and the EU.
    • PM Modi’s recent visit to three key EU member countries is expected to further reinvigorate the FTA talks.

    Also read

    [Burning Issue] India-EU Relations

     

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  • Bangladesh offers Chittagong Port to India

    In a major development in India-Bangladesh ties, India has now gained access to the crucial Chittagong Port after it was offered by Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina.

    About Chittagong Port

    • The Chittagong/Chattogram Port is the main seaport of Bangladesh.
    • It is located in the port city of Chittagong and on the banks of the Karnaphuli River,
    • The port handles eighty percent of Bangladesh’s export-import trade, and has been used by India, Nepal and Bhutan for transshipment.
    • According to Lloyd’s, it ranked as the 58th busiest container port in the world in 2019. The port is one of the oldest in the world.
    • Chittagong Port is now being developed and modernized with Chinese investment and help.
    • It was widely believed that China will retain the right to use this port according to its plans and needs.

    Significance of the port

    • The use of Chattogram port was made possible under an agreement that allows the use of Chattogram and Mongla ports as transhipment hubs.
    • The port is significance for north-eastern states for enhancing connectivity between the neighboring countries.
    • This will reduce the distance, time and cost of logistics for transporting goods.
    • Currently, the road route between West Bengal to the northeast covers a distance of over 1,200 km.

    Some of the benefits India hopes from this new and shorter route are:

    • An additional connectivity route that’s economical and environment-friendly
    • States like Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya to get access to a port for transportation of goods
    • Lend a fillip to multi-modal connectivity between India and Bangladesh
    • Ease stress on supply chains that have been disrupted by the pandemic
    • Important bridge for India to reach Southeast Asia, East Asia and beyond

    Benefits for Bangladesh

    • Fresh investment flow in the logistics sector
    • New trade routes are expected to generate employment and give a fillip to transport, finance and insurance.
    • Generate revenue by way of administrative and port-related fees
    • Lead to economic transformation of cities such as Cumilla, Tamabil and Akhaura as well.

    Conclusion

    • India has settled the four-decade-old land boundary issue and also showing positive attitude towards Teesta water sharing issue.
    • At this moment, it is normal that Bangladesh would show some liberality towards use of ports.

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  • Making the most of the diplomatic attention

    Context

    India has witnessed a flurry of diplomatic activity during the past week with a long line of ministers, senior military officers and diplomats from a number of countries visiting Delhi and engaging with their Indian counterparts.

    Highlights of this year’s Raisina Dialogue

    • The senior-most official and inaugural speaker was Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
    • The European presence was prominent.
    • China and Russia were absent from among official delegates, which is a pity.
    • The European presence was prominent. China and Russia were absent from among official delegates.
    • The focus narrowed down to the Ukraine war and, more specifically, India’s posture on Russia’s increasingly brutal assault on the hapless people of Ukraine.
    • It fell to the external affairs minister to deflect the expectations of India on this score.

    What should be India’s approach toward West?

    • India will need the West more than it has in the recent past, whether in building up its deterrent capabilities or accelerating its own economic and technological transformation.
    • India’s Quad partners the US, Japan, Australia, its partners in Europe and several ASEAN countries, see India as an anchor that could help stabilise the international situation.
    • They have a stake in India emerging as an influential power and are willing to contribute to that end.
    • The temptation to indulge in criticising each other should be avoided.

    Why India should recalibrate its ties with Russia?

    • Assumptions about Russia-China ties: A key assumption in India’s Russia policy has been that as a great power, Moscow would be unlikely to accept a junior partnership with China.
    • It was also assumed that in the long run, Russian and Chinese interests would not be aligned and, therefore, India should maintain a close relationship with Moscow.
    • Even if the Ukraine war had not erupted, the February 4 Sino-Russian Joint Declaration should have led India to question the continuing validity of these assumptions.
    • There are valid legacy reasons for maintaining positive ties with Russia just as some European countries have had to do.
    • The reality is that India-Russia relations are not a continuation of the old Indo-Soviet ties.
    • That strategic partnership that helped India cope with the Cold War and the Chinese and Pakistani threats evaporated with the end of that war and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    • Moscow no longer saw Beijing as its main security challenge but for India, China became a bigger challenge.
    • Marginal economic and trade relations: India’s economic and trade relationship with Russia has become increasingly marginal.
    • Defence relationship diminishing progressively: Even the defence hardware relationship has diminished progressively as India has rightly tried to diversify its sources of supply.
    • The legacy in this respect, too, is of diminishing relevance.
    •  India may have its issues with the existing order but what is envisaged in the Joint Declaration is not the alternative which would enhance India’s interests.

    Way forward for India

    • Remain engaged with Russia and China: In a shifting geopolitical landscape, it is in India’s interest to remain engaged with Russia and China as two leading powers in the world.
    • Such engagement is important to gauge how these powers are themselves adjusting to the changing geopolitical equations across the world.
    • The US has shaken off the taint of its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan but its domestic politics is unpredictable and this calls for caution.
    • Europe will likely emerge as a more coherent and cohesive entity, anchored in German power, and playing a role more independent of the US than hitherto.
    • Deepen partnership with Europe: All the more reason why India must deepen its all-round partnership with Europe, build a shared vision of an altered geopolitical landscape and encourage Europe to play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    The attention being paid to India is substantive. A rare but perishable opportunity has presented itself to significantly advance India’s long-term prospects. It must be grasped with single-minded tenacity.

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  • Placing semicon diplomacy at the heart of India’s foreign policy

    Context

    The current decade presents a unique opportunity to India. . India must seize this opportunity and become an attractive alternative destination for semiconductor manufacturing.

    Importance of semiconductors

    • Semiconductor chips are the lifeblood of the modern information age.
    • The semiconductor is the cornerstone of all electronic products.
    • They enable electronic products to compute and control actions that simplify our lives.
    • These semiconductor chips are the drivers for ICT development and one of the key reasons for the current flattening of the world

    Global cooperation driven by semiconductors

    • The manufacturing cycle of a semiconductor chip from sand to a finished product, sees it change hands approximately 70 times across international borders.
    • Concentrated in few geographies: The semiconductor manufacturing capacities are concentrated in a few geographies.
    • Nearly all leading edge (sub 10nm) semiconductor manufacturing capacity is limited to Taiwan and South Korea, with nearly 92 per cent located in the former.
    • Further, 75 per cent of the semiconductor manufacturing capacity is concentrated in East Asia and China.

    Opportunity for India

    • Companies are looking to diversify their supply chain and for alternatives to their bases in China.
    • The chip shortages due to Covid-19 have hit automakers with a revenue loss of $110 bn in 2021.
    • The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implications for raw material supplies for the semiconductor value chain has also poised chipmakers to invest in strengthening the semicon supply chain.
    • India must seize this opportunity and become an attractive alternative destination for semiconductor manufacturing.
    • The way ahead is conceptualising a semicon diplomacy action plan.
    • Placing semicon diplomacy at the heart of India’s foreign policy is essential both strategically and economically.
    • The multiplier effect on the economy: The establishment of the value chain for semiconductors would ensure a multiplier effect on the entire economy. 
    • National security implications: Semiconductors are used in critical infrastructures such as communication, power transmission etc., that have implications for national security. 
    • Reducing the BoP: Domestic production would be saving forex and reducing the balance of payments, especially vis a vis China.

    Way forward: Leveraging Semicon diplomacy

    • One of the ways of leveraging semicon diplomacy is increasing multilateral and bilateral cooperation.
    • Role of Quad: A key institution with immense potential in this regard is the Quad.
    • Australia, being rich in raw materials required for semiconductors, can be an important supplier to fill in India’s deficits.
    • The US and Japan can be leveraged for capacity building and their advanced semiconductor technology in logic and memory segments.
    • Pivot India’s Act East Policy: Considering that the semiconductor manufacturing and testing bases are heavily concentrated in East Asia, the Act East policy provides an opportunity to connect and strengthen ties with key players in the region.
    • Technological exchanges with ASEAN: Frequent technological exchanges between a regional bloc like ASEAN via tracks in forums like the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN regional forum will be beneficial.
    • Collective growth: Attaining self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing can mean collective growth of the South Asian region.
    • India needs to harness its strengths, such as the strong presence of global EMS players, diaspora, world-class design ecosystem, demographic dividend, and use it as a pedestal for global partnerships and outreach.

    Conclusion

    India’s concept of self-reliance is not an individualistic endeavour but one that encourages growth and prosperity of all, in the spirit of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, meaning the entire world is one family. Similarly, we don’t have an option but to be self-reliant in semiconductors.

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  • In news: Balochistan Freedom Movement

    The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), one of the most prominent militant groups operating against Pakistani, has claimed a suicidal attack on Chinese citizens in Karachi.

    Who are the BLA fighters?

    • The BLA announced itself in 2005 with a rocket attack on a paramilitary camp in Balochistan Kohlu during a visit by then President Pervez Musharraf.
    • It is a nationalist militant group that has been waging an insurgency for Baloch self-determination and a separate homeland for the Baloch people.

    Rise of Baloch nationalism

    • While the BLA’s armed insurgency is about two decades old, demands of Baloch nationalists for political autonomy and threats of secession date back to 1947.
    • The Khan of Kalat (who claimed sovereignty over the four princely states of Kalat, Lasbela, Kharan and Makran) held out for independence, and the Pakistan Army forced his accession in March 1948.
    • Between 1973 and 1977, the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto-led government sent in the Pakistan Army to crush a leftist guerilla war inspired by the liberation of Bangladesh.
    • The tribal sardars of Balochistan, who had been at the forefront of Baloch nationalism, and were co-opted by the state in the late 1970s, grew rebellious again.
    • The insurgency gathered momentum from 2006, after the Pakistan Army killed the Bugti sardar, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who had been also been a chief minister and governor of the province.

    Why it is gaining momentum now?

    • The Pakistan Army’s operations against Baloch nationalists over the last two decades have seen hundreds of disappearances, and other alleged human rights violations.
    • Baloch nationalists also see the sudden influx of jihadist groups in the province as a move by the Pakistan security establishment to counter their nationalist demands.
    • In 2012, the US Congress convened a hearing on Balochistan and supported the demand for a free Baloch land.
    • In a significant shift in policy, back then in 2016, PM Modi had made a reference to the Baloch freedom struggle in his Independence Day speech.

    Why Balochistan matters?

    • Balochistan borders Afghanistan and Iran.
    • The people are mostly tribal with secular principles and are admirers of ties with India.
    • With gas, oil, copper and gold deposits, it is the most resource-rich of Pakistan’s four provinces.
    • It makes up half of Pakistan’s area, but has only 3.6% of its population.
    • Pakistan alleges that the insurgency is backed by India.
    • This is the region where a former Indian Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadhav was abducted from Iran and charged for espionage supporting Baloch activism in Pakistan.
    • Many Baloch activists had been seeking asylum and has applied for Indian citizenship. New Delhi neither confirmed nor deny the reports.

    Why did BLA target the Chinese now?

    • The BLA claimed it attacks Chinese nationals because Beijing ignored warnings not to enter deals and agreements regarding Balochistan before the province had been “liberated”.
    • Baloch people see China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as neo-colonist move against their sovereignty.
    • Among China’s major projects in Balochistan is the port of Gwadar, strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial oil shipping route in the Arabian Sea.
    • The security of its nationals in Pakistan has become a major issue for Beijing, especially since it launched the CPEC.
    • Such attacks has literally stalled the work in progress of CPEC projects making it a sheer failure.

    Significance of recent events

    • It is rare that the BLA deployed female suicide bombers. Recent attack was done by a highly educated lady and mother of two.
    • This is also the first time that a non-jihadist ethno-nationalist group has deployed a woman suicide bomber in the manner of Sri Lanka’s LTTE.
    • According to security experts familiar with the Baloch insurgency, it marks a worsening security situation in Pakistan.
    • As the training camps are alleged by Pakistan to be in Afghanistan, the incident may also be a pointer to Pakistan’s loss of control over the Talibans.

     

     

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  • Common values, shared threats in India-Australia cyber security ties

    Context

    Western and media attention may be focused on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but countries have not taken their eye off the Indo-Pacific where there is clear evidence of the changing world order.

    India and Australia faces a common threat to cyber security

    • The India-Australia ECTA is a concrete example of the bilateral faith in common values, and understanding of threats and goals.
    • A reflection of this is cooperation in cyber security.
    • China is accused of having amassed a large number of cyber weapons and has allegedly carried out sophisticated operations aimed at espionage, theft of intellectual property, and destructive attacks on internet resources of some countries.
    • Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups: Australia and India have been at the receiving end of several such campaigns by the so-called Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups, supported by or assumed to be located in China.

    Steps toward cooperation in cyber security

    • At the June 2020 virtual bilateral summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison elevated the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
    • New cyber security framework: The new cyber framework includes a five-year plan to work together on the digital economy, cybersecurity and critical and emerging technologies.
    • Bilateral research: This will be supported by a $9.7 million fund for bilateral research to improve regional cyber resilience.
    • An annual Cyber Policy Dialogue, a new Joint Working Group on Cyber Security Cooperation and a joint working group on ICTs have been established.
    • An annual India-Australia Foreign Ministers Cyber Framework Dialogue will be held.
    • India to be part of International Cyber Engagement Strategy: India will now be included in a core Australian initiative called the International Cyber Engagement Strategy — it began in 2017 to actively conduct capacity-building arrangements in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, and support similar activities in Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia.
    • A joint Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy, to be located in Bengaluru, will be set up.

    Steps taken by India to improve cyber security

    • India has set up the office of the National Cybersecurity Coordinator, a national Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-IN), a national Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Agency (NCIIPC), and made appropriate amendments to the Information Technology Act and Rules to enhance its cyber security posture.
    • This has upped India’s rank to 10th in the Global Cyber Security Index (GCI) 2020, from 47th just two years earlier.
    • India has capable cybersecurity professionals.

    Conclusion

    Deepening cooperation can develop avenues for mutual learning and create complementary markets in cyber tools and technologies, boosting bilateral business and strategic commitments on both continents.

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  • India’s CPC designation by the USCIRF

    In its 2022 Annual report, the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has recommended that India be designated a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ (CPC).

    What is the USCIRF and how is it constituted?

    • The USCIRF is an independent, bipartisan body created by the International Religious Freedom Act, 1998 (IRFA) of the US.
    • It has a mandate to monitor religious freedom violations globally and make policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State, and the Congress.
    • It is a congressionally created entity and not an NGO or advocacy organisation.
    • It is led by nine part-time commissioners appointed by the President and the leadership of both political parties in the House and the Senate.

    Why in news now?

    • USCIRF wants India to be designated under the CPC category of governments performing most poorly on religious freedom criteria.
    • It has called for “targeted sanctions” on individuals and entities responsible for severe violations of religious freedom by freezing those individuals’ or entities’ assets and/or barring their entry” into the US.

    What does a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ (CPC) designation mean?

    • IRFA requires the USCIRF to annually identify countries that merit a CPC designation.
    • As per IRFA, CPCs are countries whose governments either engage in or tolerate “particularly severe violations” of religious freedom.
    • Such freedoms are defined as systematic, ongoing, egregious violations of the internationally recognized right to freedom of religion.
    • The other designation, for less serious violations, is Special Watch List (SWL)

    Which other countries have been designated as CPCs?

    • For 2022, based on religious freedom conditions in 2021, a total of 15 countries have been recommended for the CPC designation.
    • They include India, Pakistan, Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria and Vietnam.
    • Countries recommended for a SWL designation include Algeria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Azerbaijan, Central African Republic, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.

    Why does USCIRF want India to be designated as a CPC?

    • The USCIRF, in its annual report, states that in 2021, religious freedom conditions in India significantly worsened.
    • It has noted that the Indian government escalated its promotion and enforcement of policies —including those promoting a Hindu-nationalist agenda.
    • This negatively affects Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, and other religious minorities.
    • It highlighted the use of the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) against those documenting religious persecution and violence.
    • It also criticised the spate of fresh anti-conversion legislations, noting that “national, State and local governments demonised and attacked the conversion of Hindus to Christianity or Islam.”

    Are USCIRF recommendations binding on the US government?

    • No, they are not. The USCIRF typically recommends more countries for a CPC label than the State Department will designate.
    • This happens because the USCIRF is concerned solely with the state of religious freedom when it makes a recommendation.
    • However, the US State Department also takes into account other diplomatic, bilateral and strategic concerns before making a decision on a CPC designation.

    Is this the first time India is being designated as a CPC by the USCIRF? What has been India’s reaction?

    • This is the third year in a row that India has received a CPC recommendation.
    • India has in the past pushed back against the grading, questioning the locus standi of USCIRF.
    • In 2020, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar called the Commission an “Organisation of Particular Concern.”
    • US needs to introspect itself on the HR violations by the state authorities on the basis of racism, ethnocentrism and religion (particularly Sikhs).

    What is the likely impact of the USCIRF’s recommendation?

    • The US State Department hasn’t acted on such recommendations so far.
    • But India may come under greater pressure this time, given its divergence from the American position on the Ukraine war and refusal to endorse US-backed resolutions against Russia at the UN.
    • Hence the USCIRF is another force of Anti-India lobby in the US to bully other nations by countering an accusation with another.

     

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  • The goal of an energy-secure South Asia

    Context

    Given that a 0.46% increase in energy consumption leads to a 1% increase in GDP per capita, electrification not only helps in improving lifestyle but also adds to the aggregate economy by improving the nation’s GDP.

    Widening electricity coverage in South Asian nations

    • The electricity policies of South Asian countries aim at providing electricity to every household.
    • The issues these policies address include generation, transmission, distribution, rural electrification, research and development, environmental issues, energy conservation and human resource training.
    • Bangladesh has achieved 100% electrification recently while Bhutan, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka accomplished this in 2019.
    • For India and Afghanistan, the figures are 94.4% and 97.7%, respectively, while for Pakistan it is 73.91%.
    • Bhutan has the cheapest electricity price in South Asia (U.S.$0.036 per kilowatt hour, or kWh) while India has the highest (U.S.$0.08 per kWh.) 
    • South Asia is reinforcing its transmission and distribution frameworks to cater to growing energy demand not only through the expansion of power grids but also by boosting green energy such as solar power or hydroelectricity.

    Adapting to renewable

    • Geographical differences between these countries call for a different approach depending on resources.
    •  India leads South Asia in adapting to renewable power, with its annual demand for power increasing by 6%.
    • India’s pledge to move 40% of total energy produced to renewable energy is also a big step.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his ‘net-zero by 2070’ pledge at COP26 in Glasgow asserted India’s target to increase the capacity of renewable energy from 450GW to 500GW by 2030.
    • The region is moving towards green growth and energy as India hosts the International Solar Alliance.
    • South Asia has vast renewable energy resources — hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass — which can be harnessed for domestic use as well as regional power trade.

    Steps toward SDGs

    • Solar power-driven electrification in rural Bangladesh is a huge step towards Sustainable Development Goal 7.
    • Access to electricity improves infrastructure i.e., SDG 9 (which is “build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation”).
    • Energy access helps online education through affordable Internet (SDG 4, or “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”), more people are employed (SDG 1: “no poverty”), and are able to access tech-based health solutions (SDG 3, or “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”).

    Regional energy trade

    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) prepared the regional energy cooperation framework in 2014, but its implementation is questionable.
    • Energy trade agreements: There are a number of bilateral and multilateral energy trade agreements such as the India-Nepal petroleum pipeline deal, the India-Bhutan hydroelectric joint venture, the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline, the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) sub-regional framework for energy cooperation, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, rumoured to be extended to Bangladesh.
    • Challenges: ‘South Asia’s regional geopolitics is determined by the conflation of identity, politics, and international borders.
    • The current participation in cross-border projects has been restricted to respective tasks, among Bhutan and India or Nepal and India.
    • It is only now that power-sharing projects among the three nations, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, have been deemed conceivable.

    Way forward

    • Energy framework: Going forward, resilient energy frameworks are what are needed such as better building-design practices, climate-proof infrastructure, a flexible monitory framework, and an integrated resource plan that supports renewable energy innovation.
    • Public-Private Partnership: Government alone cannot be the provider of reliable and secure energy frameworks, and private sector investment is crucial.

    Conclusion

    While universal coverage can catalyse the region’s economic growth, energy trade must be linked to peace building.

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  • India, Europe and the Russian complication

    Context

    The re-election of Emmanuel Macron as the president of France on Sunday has sent a sigh of relief across Europe and North America. Delhi too is pleased with the return of Macron, who laid a strong foundation for India’s strategic partnership with France.

    Why France election matters to the regional and domestic order in Europe

    • Unlike the Soviet Union, which sought to shape European politics though left-wing parties, Russia today influences European politics through right-wing parties.
    • Victory for Marine Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, would have dramatically complicated the geopolitics of Europe.
    • Le Pen, like so many other right-wing leaders in Europe, has close ties to Vladimir Putin.
    • Le Pen’s victory would have not only altered France’s international trajectory, but also shaken the EU to its political core.

    Three factors shaping the transformation of India’s ties with Europe

    • Russia’s threat to the regional and domestic order in Europe is among multiple factors shaping Delhi’s intensifying engagement with Brussels.
    • Three major external factors are facilitating the transformation of India’s ties with Europe.

    1] Russian Question

    • For India, a normal relationship between Russia and the West would have been ideal.
    • But Russia’s confrontation with the West comes during India’s rapidly expanding economic and political ties to Europe and America.
    • Delhi might be sentimental about India’s historic Russian connection but it is not going to sacrifice its growing ties to the West on that altar.
    • Russia’s declining economic weight and growing international isolation begins to simplify India’s choices.
    • During the last few weeks, Delhi has insisted that its silence is not an endorsement of Russian aggression.
    • India’s position has continued to evolve.
    • Delhi’s repeated emphasis on respecting the territorial integrity of states is a repudiation of Russia’s unacceptable aggression.
    • Meanwhile, geographic proximity and economic complementarity have tied Europe even more deeply to Russia.
    • The EU’s annual trade with Russia at around $260 billion is massive in comparison to India’s $10 billion.
    • Putin’s reckless invasion of Ukraine has compelled Europe to embark on a costly effort to disconnect from Russia.
    • The war in Ukraine has certainly presented a major near-term problem that needs to be managed by Delhi and Brussels.

    2] China Question

    •  Moscow has been deepening ties with Beijing for more than two decades triggering many anxieties in Delhi.
    •  In February, Putin travelled to Beijing to announce a partnership “without limits”.
    • India has no option but to manage the consequences of the Russian decision.
    • In the last two decades, China has emerged as a great power and now presents a generational challenge for Indian policymakers.
    • That challenge has been made harder by Putin’s alliance with Xi Jinping.
    • As Delhi strives to retain a reasonable relationship with Moscow, Europe emerges as an important partner in letting India cope with the China challenge.
    •  Thanks to the growing problems of doing business with Xi’s China, Beijing’s geopolitical alliance with Moscow, and the rapid deterioration of Sino-US relations, Brussels is ready to invest serious political capital in building purposeful strategic ties with India.

    3] American Question

    • Until recently it appeared that Europe’s calls for “strategic autonomy” from the US were in sync with India’s own worldview.
    • But the Ukraine crisis has underlined the US’s centrality in securing Europe against Russia.
    • In Asia, Chinese assertiveness has brought back the US as a critical factor in shaping peace and security.
    • Washington wants a strong Europe taking greater responsibility for its own security; it would like Delhi to play a larger role in Asia and become a credible provider of regional security.
    • Above all, America wants India and Europe to build stronger ties with each other.

    Conclusion

    For the first time since independence, India’s interests are now aligning with those of Europe. Together, Delhi and Brussels can help reshape Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific.

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  • Finding workable solutions to India-Sri Lanka fisheries issue

    Context

    After a gap of 15 months, the India-Sri Lanka Joint Working Group (JWG) on fisheries held its much-awaited deliberations (in virtual format) on March 25.

    Background of the issue

    • As sections of fishermen from the Palk Bay bordering districts of Tamil Nadu continue to transgress the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL), cases of many of them getting arrested and their boats being impounded by the Sri Lankan authorities continue.
    • Apart from poaching in the territorial waters of Sri Lanka, the use of mechanised bottom trawlers is another issue that has become a bone of contention between the fishermen of the two countries; the dispute is not just between the two states.
    • Use of mechanised bottom trawlers: This method of fishing, which was once promoted by the authorities in India, is now seen as being extremely adverse to the marine ecology, and has been acknowledged so by India.
    • The actions of the Tamil Nadu fishermen adversely affect their counterparts in the Northern Province.
    • Reason for transgression: The fishermen of Tamil Nadu experience a genuine problem — the lack of fishing areas consequent to the demarcation of the IMBL in June 1974.
    • If they confine themselves to Indian waters, they find the area available for fishing full of rocks and coral reefs besides being shallow.
    • Under the Tamil Nadu Marine Fishing Regulation Act 1983, mechanised fishing boats can fish only beyond 3 NM from the coast.
    • This explains the trend of the fishermen having to cross the IMBL frequently.

    Way forward

    • Transition to deep-sea fishing: While Indian fishermen can present a road map for their transition to deep sea fishing or alternative methods of fishing, the Sri Lankan side has to take a pragmatic view that the transition cannot happen abruptly.
    • In the meantime, India will have to modify its scheme on deep-sea fishing to accommodate the concerns of its fishermen, especially those from Ramanathapuram district, so that they take to deep-sea fishing without any reservation.
    • Alternative livelihood measures: There is a compelling need for the Central and State governments to implement in Tamil Nadu the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana in a proactive manner.
    • The scheme, which was flagged off two years ago, covers alternative livelihood measures too including seaweed cultivation, open sea cage cultivation, and sea/ocean ranching.
    • During Mr. Jaishankar’s visit, India had signed a memorandum of understanding with Sri Lanka for the development of fisheries harbours.
    • This can be modified to include a scheme for deep-sea fishing to the fishermen of the North.
    • Joint research on fisheries: . It is a welcome development that the JWG has agreed to have joint research on fisheries, which should be commissioned at the earliest.
    • Institutional mechanism: Simultaneously, the two countries should explore the possibility of establishing a permanent multi-stakeholder institutional mechanism to regulate fishing activity in the region.
    • Using common thread of culture, language and religion: The people of the two countries in general and fisherfolk in particular have common threads of language, culture and religion, all of which can be used purposefully to resolve any dispute.

    Conclusion

    What everyone needs to remember is that the fisheries dispute is not an insurmountable problem. A number of options are available to make the Palk Bay not only free of troubles but also a model for collaborative endeavours in fishing.

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