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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • [op-ed of the day] Electricity 4.0: The future of power in the age of climate change

    Context

    Significance of electricity in our life

    • Interconnecting economic prosperity: Electrical energy is a juncture that inter-connects economic prosperity.
      • Amplifies social equity.
      • Ushers in a liveable environment for us.
      • No development in its true sense is possible if we leave aside energy and specifically sustainable energy.
      • It is almost indispensable for holistic and sustainable progress of any kind.

    Burning of fossil fuel and climate change

    • Singular reliance on fossil fuel: Ever since the industrial revolution, development has almost singularly relied on the burning of fossil fuels, emitting huge volumes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
      • 41% of electricity from coal: As per data by the World Coal Association, a little over 41% of all electricity generated is produced from coal.
      • Problems with coal: Burning coal for electricity production leads to-
      • High level of hazardous carbon emissions.
      • Rising levels of pollution: water and air pollution during mining and air pollution during burning.
      • Working condition of miners: Added to the disastrous working conditions of miners, coal cannot be regarded as a sustainable source of energy.
    • Global warming and climate change: Despite increasing awareness, not much is being done to mitigate climate change.
      • Rise over 1.5oC and Consequences: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has reiterated that unless global temperature rise is not kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius, natural and human systems will be irreparably damaged.
      • Rise over  2o  C and Consequences: Even a slight increase in atmospheric temperature by 2 degrees Celsius will result in a substantial rise in sea levels.
      • Consequences for human life: The rise in sea level would, in turn, translate into a whopping 10 million more people going homeless and another 50% people facing severe water scarcity.
    • The aim of becoming carbon neutral: To join the efforts, many global public and private stakeholders have pledged their allegiance into becoming net-zero carbon emitters.
      • But we are still far from achieving our objectives, as the IEA (International Energy Agency) recently reported that the Earth’s temperature rise will range between 1.8 degrees Celsius and 2.7 degrees Celsius soon.

    Sustainable energy as a necessity

    • Energy efficiency and energy management: As the world is evolving into an interconnected form of world-of work, life and more-energy efficiency and energy management have slowly come to be a central driving force.
      • Sustainable energy a necessity: In order to power smart homes, industries, hospitals and other mission-critical operations, sustainable energy is no more a matter of choice, but of necessity.
      • IoT to help achieve energy efficiency: Technology adoptions like IoT and connected services can greatly enhance energy efficiencies and many global behemoths are coming to terms with this reality.
      • Demand for an alternative source of energy: Environmental factors, coupled with rising costs and stringent regulatory guidelines, are adding to the demand for alternative sources of energy.
      • Alternate as well as sustainable: The alternate sources are expected not only to satiate the growing consumption needs but are proven to be a sustainable option in the long run.

    Electricity 4.0

    • Electricity 4.0: That is, sustainable methods of energy generation and efficient and cost-effective usage of produced energy.
      • The sustainable energy need of the sustainable future: To lay the foundation stone for a sustainable future, there is a critical need to investigate how we create and consume energy.
      • The answer lies in renewables becoming the dominant source of power, globally.
    • A new form of energy mix: There is a growing need to build a new form of energy mix under Electricity 4.0, with renewable ways of electricity creation, at its very core. A new order where-
      • Electrical internet of things (EIOT).
      • Cloud computing.
      • Artificial intelligence.
      • And the tools of today’s digital era are fully leveraged to maximise energy efficiency.

    Way forward

    • Given that the major cause of global warming is Carbon Dioxide, so the first step to combat it would be-
    • Electrifying the planet: The augmented proliferation of energy-efficient, electricity-based equipments that are prevalent now, such as e-mobility, electrical heating, innovative applications such as electric aviation fleets can be one way to do that.
    • Scale up the production of renewable energy: The immediate need is to scale up the production of renewable electricity and build conducive public-policy frameworks to further this goal.
    • Adoption of digital technology: It is imperative to adopt digital technology in order to optimise the efficiency of our energy consumption and electrical networks. Digital connectivity, software and artificial intelligence can well be dubbed as the fulcrum that will support our transition toward Industry 4.0.
    • Concerted efforts from all stakeholders: To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or to promote energy decarbonisation, concerted efforts are required from all stakeholders – the community, regions, government and the private sector.

     

     

     

  •  [op-ed snap] Global warming puts forests, plantations in the country at risk

    Context

    Global warming, drought and El Niño may lead to increased forest fires.

    The success story of India

    • Reduced deforestation: India has succeeded in reducing deforestation to some extent through an effective Forest Conservation Act and large-scale afforestation programme.
      • Comparison with other countries: India performed better when compared with other forest-rich tropical countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
      • Without the Forest Conservation Act and its reasonably effective implementation, India would have lost significant extent of forest area.
    • Increased afforestation: India has also been implementing significant scale afforestation, though the rates of afforestation have declined recently.
      • Agro-forestry, involving raising fruit tree plantations contribute to some extent.
      • Commercial plantations of eucalyptus, casuarina, teak, poplar, etc., have been raised by farmers for commercial purposes.
      • The above steps have resulted in potentially reducing the pressure on natural forests.

    Need to measure ‘natural forest’

    • Increase in an area under forest: According to the latest biennial State of Forest Report (SFR) of the Forest Survey of India (FSI), an area under forests has been increasing.
    • Natural forests not specifically measured: It is not clear what percentage of increase in forest area is due to changes in natural forests which are generally rich in biodiversity.
      • The report doesn’t specify what percentage of change in area is due to commercial plantation and what percentage is contributed by horticulture or urban parks.
    • Need to define ‘natural forest’: What will be of most concern to forest and biodiversity conservation is to understand the status of natural forest and biodiversity.
      • India can use the same definition of forests but must estimate and report the area under natural forests and other forest plantation categories.
      • India needs to define ‘natural forests’ first, further, this would involve additional staff time and resources.
    • The resilience of natural forests to forest fires: Tropical forests rich in biodiversity are likely to be more resilient than monoculture dominated plantations or exotics.
      • Vulnerability to forest fires varies from forests to forests: Studies by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that degraded forests, fragmented forests and biodiversity-poor forests are more vulnerable to climate change.

    Climate change and its impacts

    • IPCC reports on large scale loss: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have repeatedly concluded that climate change will lead to large-scale loss of biodiversity, before the end of the current century or even earlier.
    • Modelling studies by IISc.: Preliminary modelling studies by Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that about 20% of forests will be impacted by climate change.
      • No change to adapt: The modelling studies means that existing forest biodiversity and its structure and composition will not be able to adapt to the new climate and there could be mortality or forest dieback.
    • The threat of forest fires: Further, warming, drought and El Niño will lead to increased forest fires, and may even be favourable to forest pests.
      • Unfortunately, the models currently in use for assessing the impact of climate change are not suitable for the complex and highly diverse forest types that exist in India.

    Conclusions

    • Given that global warming will continue, India will have to brace itself to adapt to the impending impacts. In India, there is very limited research on climate change and its impacts on forests, putting our famed biodiversity-rich country status under threat.
    • India needs to realistically assess, monitor and model climate change and its impacts and be prepared to adapt to impending climate change.

  • Thawing of Permafrost

     

    A recent study makes a disturbing connection between the loss of Arctic sea ice and thawing (melting) of permafrost in the region, with global implications.

    What is Permafrost?

    • ‘Permafrost’ or permanently frozen ground is land that has been frozen at or below 0 degrees Celsius for two or more consecutive years.
    • A staggering 17 per cent of Earth’s entire exposed land surface is comprised of permafrost.
    • Composed of rock, sediments, dead plant and animal matter, soil, and varying degrees of ice, permafrost is mainly found near the poles, covering parts of Greenland, Alaska, Northern Canada, Siberia and Scandinavia.
    • The Arctic region is a vast ocean, covered by thick ice on the surface (called sea ice), surrounded by land masses that are also covered with snow and ice.

    Permafrost thawing

    • When permafrost thaws, water from the melted ice makes its way to the caves along with ground sediments, and deposits on the rocks.
    • In other words, when permafrost thaws, the rocks grow and when permafrost is stable and frozen, they do not grow.

    Why thawing?

    • The link between the Siberian permafrost and Arctic sea ice can be explained by two factors:
    • One is heat transport from the open Arctic Ocean into Siberia, making the Siberian climate warmer.
    • The second is moisture transport from open seawater into Siberia, leading to thicker snow cover that insulates the ground from cold winter air, contributing to its warming.
    • This is drastically different from the situation just a couple of decades ago when the sea ice acted as a protective layer, maintaining cold temperatures in the region and shielding the permafrost from the moisture from the ocean.
    • If sea ice (in the summer) is gone, permafrost start thawing.

    Impact on Climate Change

    • Due to relentlessly rising temperatures in the region, since the late-twentieth century, the Arctic sea ice and surrounding land ice are melting at accelerating rates.
    • When permafrost thaws due to rising temperatures, the microbes in the soil decompose the dead organic matter (plants and animals) to produce methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), both potent greenhouse gases.
    • CH4 is at least 80 times more powerful than CO2 on a decadal timescale and around 25 times more powerful on a century timescale.
    • The greenhouse gases produced from thawing permafrost will further increase temperatures which will, in turn, lead to more permafrost thawing, forming an unstoppable and irreversible self-reinforcing feedback loop.
    • Experts believe this process may have already begun. Giant craters and ponds of water (called ‘thermokarst lakes’) formed due to thawing have been recorded in the Arctic region. Some are so big that they can be seen from space.

    Why a matter of concern?

    • An estimated 1,700 billion tonnes — twice the amount currently present in the atmosphere — of carbon is locked in all of the world’s permafrost.
    • Even if half of that were to be released to the atmosphere, it would be game over for the climate.
    • Scientific estimates suggest that the Arctic Ocean could be largely sea ice-free in the summer months by as early as 2030, based on observational trends, or as late as 2050, based on climate model projections.

  • [op-ed of the day] Weathering the storm

    Context

    State of Climate of India report by IMD should occasion interventions to make people resilient to extreme weather events.

    What does the report confirm?

    • Frequent extreme weather events: The report states that extreme weather events have become par for the course in the country.
    • The report notes that excessive heat, cold and rainfall killed 1,562 people during the year.
    • Intense dry spells, even droughts, were interspersed with floods in several parts of the country
    • Above normal temperature:  The mean temperature last year was 0.36 above normal.
    • The excess rainfall: The country also recorded excess rainfall during both the southwest and northeast monsoons.

    Long-term meteorological trends:

    • The IMD report should be seen in conjunction with long-term meteorological trends.
    • The warmest decade: The World Meteorological Organisation reckons that the decade starting 2011 remains on track to be the warmest on record.
    • Increase in the relative humidity: At the same time, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast shows that the relative humidity in the mid-troposphere in the Subcontinent has increased by about 2 percent in the past four decades.
    • Such warming has increased the capacity of oceans to form intense cyclonic disturbances.

    Implications for disaster-preparedness:

    • Cyclones: Last year, as the IMD report notes, the Indian Ocean witnessed eight cyclones.
    • Cyclones don’t kill but buildings can turn hazardous during such extreme weather events.
    • The vulnerability of the poor: In Odisha winds blowing at more than 140 kilometers per hour ripped off roofs and window frames in modern houses and also exposed the vulnerability of the mud and bamboo houses of the poor.
    • Guidelines: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs does have guidelines for climate-friendly construction.
    • But planners in coastal cities and towns rarely pay heed to its provisions.
    • Cooperation between the states: The changing dynamics of weather also demands cooperation between states that share a river basin.
    • Maharashtra and Karnataka bickered over opening the gates of the Almatti dam on the Krishna.

    Implications for the farmers:

    • For farmers, vagaries in nature mean disruptions in the entire cropping cycle.
    • This year, Kerala, southern Karnataka, and Gujarat were heavily deficient till July.
    • But within a few days in the last week of July, these states recorded surplus rainfall.
    • Rainwater storage and use: Increasing their resilience calls for efficient rainwater storage and use.

    Conclusion:

    It’s clear that dealing with exceptional weather will require interventions at the national, state and local levels. The Statement on Climate of India 2019 drives home the urgency of such interventions.

  • Blaze down under

    Context

    In Australia, forest fires, among the worst in the country’s history, have been raging since September and show no signs of abating.

     Unabated fire in Australia

    • The fire, worst in Australia’s history, has been raging since September and shows no signs of abating.
    • At least 24 people lost their lives, 500 million animal have perished, and more than 12bn acres of land has turned to cinders.
    • New South Wales, the country’s worst-affected state, declared an emergency last week in its southeastern region.

    Climate change and the fire

    • Australians have vented their anger at Prime Minister for playing down the blaze’s association with climate change.
    • Bushfires are actually a part of Australia’s ecosystem. Many plants depend on them to cycle nutrients and clear vegetation.
    • Eucalyptus trees in Australia depend on fire to release their seeds.
    • The prolonged blaze this year has coincided with Australia’s harshest summer.
    • Parts of the country recorded their highest recorded temperature in December.
    • Much of Australia is facing a drought that is a result of three consecutive summers with very little precipitation.
    • This, according to climate scientists, is unprecedented.
    • Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s 2018 State of the Climate report had given a hint of the change.
    • It said “Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1 degree Celsius since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.’’
    • This has led to more rainfall in northern Australia but created drought-like conditions in the more densely populated southeast.

    Damage caused to the flora and fauna of Australia

    • Australia is home to nearly 250 animal species.
    • Some of them like the koalas and kangaroos are not found elsewhere.
    • The region also has the highest rate of native animals going extinct over the past 200 years.
    • Experts, for example, reckon that more than a quarter of the koala habitat has been consumed by the blaze.
    • The fires have also caused a drop in the bird, rodent and insect populations.

    Conclusion

    • These creatures perished are the building blocks of the ecosystem and the fall in their population is bound to have long-term impacts. In Australia’s bushfires lies a warning about the complex ways in which climate variables interact.

  • Carbon Stock in Indian forests

    • The State of Forest Report (SFR) 2019 has shown an increase in the carbon stock trapped in Indian forests in the last two years.
    • However it shows why it is going to be an uphill task for India in meeting one of its international obligations on climate change.

    India’s carbon commitment

    • India, as part of its contribution to the global fight against climate change, has committed itself to creating an “additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent” by 2030.
    • That is one of the three targets India has set for itself in its climate action plan, called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, that every country has to submit under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
    • The other two relate to an improvement in emissions intensity and an increase in renewable energy deployment.
    • India has said it would reduce its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33% to 35% by 2030 compared to 2005.
    • It has also promised to ensure that at least 40% of its cumulative electricity generation in 2030 would be done through renewable energy.

    What is the relationship between forests and carbon?

    • Forests, by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for the process of photosynthesis, act as a natural sink of carbon.
    • Together with oceans, forests absorb nearly half of global annual carbon dioxide emissions.
    • In fact, the carbon currently stored in the forests exceeds all the carbon emitted in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age.
    • An increase in the forest area is thus one of the most effective ways of reducing the emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere every year.

    How do the latest forest data translate into carbon equivalent?

    • The latest forest survey shows that the carbon stock in India’s forests (not including tree cover outside of forest areas) have increased from 7.08 billion tonnes in 2017.
    • This translates into 26.14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent as of now.
    • It is estimated that India’s tree cover outside of forests would contribute another couple of billion of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

    How challenging does this make it for India in meeting its target?

    • An assessment by the Forest Survey of India (FSI) last year had projected that, by 2030, the carbon stock in forests as well as tree cover was likely to reach 31.87 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • An additional 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of sink, as India has promised to do, would mean taking the size of the sink close to 35 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • Considering the rate of growth of the carbon sink in the last few years, that is quite a stiff target India has set for itself.
    • In the last two years, the carbon sink has grown by just about 0.6%%. Even compared to 2005, the size of carbon sink has increased by barely 7.5%.
    • To meet its NDC target, even with most optimistic estimates of carbon stock trapped in trees outside of forest areas, the sink has to grow by at least 15% to 20% over the next ten-year period.

    Way Forward

    • There are two key decisions to be made in this regard — selection of the baseline year, and addition of the contribution of the agriculture sector to carbon sink.
    • When India announced its NDC in 2015, it did not mention the baseline year.
    • India’s emissions intensity target uses a 2005 baseline, so there is an argument that the forest target should also have the same baseline.
    • But there is a strong demand for a 2015 baseline as well, so that it results in some concrete progress in adding new forest cover.
    • The NDC specifically mentions that and “additional” 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon sink would be created through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 MoEFCC insist that tree cover outside forest areas must include agriculture as well.
    • India would also have to specify whether it wants to count the carbon sink in the agriculture sector in its target.

  • Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.