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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  •  [op-ed snap] Global warming puts forests, plantations in the country at risk

    Context

    Global warming, drought and El Niño may lead to increased forest fires.

    The success story of India

    • Reduced deforestation: India has succeeded in reducing deforestation to some extent through an effective Forest Conservation Act and large-scale afforestation programme.
      • Comparison with other countries: India performed better when compared with other forest-rich tropical countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
      • Without the Forest Conservation Act and its reasonably effective implementation, India would have lost significant extent of forest area.
    • Increased afforestation: India has also been implementing significant scale afforestation, though the rates of afforestation have declined recently.
      • Agro-forestry, involving raising fruit tree plantations contribute to some extent.
      • Commercial plantations of eucalyptus, casuarina, teak, poplar, etc., have been raised by farmers for commercial purposes.
      • The above steps have resulted in potentially reducing the pressure on natural forests.

    Need to measure ‘natural forest’

    • Increase in an area under forest: According to the latest biennial State of Forest Report (SFR) of the Forest Survey of India (FSI), an area under forests has been increasing.
    • Natural forests not specifically measured: It is not clear what percentage of increase in forest area is due to changes in natural forests which are generally rich in biodiversity.
      • The report doesn’t specify what percentage of change in area is due to commercial plantation and what percentage is contributed by horticulture or urban parks.
    • Need to define ‘natural forest’: What will be of most concern to forest and biodiversity conservation is to understand the status of natural forest and biodiversity.
      • India can use the same definition of forests but must estimate and report the area under natural forests and other forest plantation categories.
      • India needs to define ‘natural forests’ first, further, this would involve additional staff time and resources.
    • The resilience of natural forests to forest fires: Tropical forests rich in biodiversity are likely to be more resilient than monoculture dominated plantations or exotics.
      • Vulnerability to forest fires varies from forests to forests: Studies by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that degraded forests, fragmented forests and biodiversity-poor forests are more vulnerable to climate change.

    Climate change and its impacts

    • IPCC reports on large scale loss: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have repeatedly concluded that climate change will lead to large-scale loss of biodiversity, before the end of the current century or even earlier.
    • Modelling studies by IISc.: Preliminary modelling studies by Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have shown that about 20% of forests will be impacted by climate change.
      • No change to adapt: The modelling studies means that existing forest biodiversity and its structure and composition will not be able to adapt to the new climate and there could be mortality or forest dieback.
    • The threat of forest fires: Further, warming, drought and El Niño will lead to increased forest fires, and may even be favourable to forest pests.
      • Unfortunately, the models currently in use for assessing the impact of climate change are not suitable for the complex and highly diverse forest types that exist in India.

    Conclusions

    • Given that global warming will continue, India will have to brace itself to adapt to the impending impacts. In India, there is very limited research on climate change and its impacts on forests, putting our famed biodiversity-rich country status under threat.
    • India needs to realistically assess, monitor and model climate change and its impacts and be prepared to adapt to impending climate change.

  • Thawing of Permafrost

     

    A recent study makes a disturbing connection between the loss of Arctic sea ice and thawing (melting) of permafrost in the region, with global implications.

    What is Permafrost?

    • ‘Permafrost’ or permanently frozen ground is land that has been frozen at or below 0 degrees Celsius for two or more consecutive years.
    • A staggering 17 per cent of Earth’s entire exposed land surface is comprised of permafrost.
    • Composed of rock, sediments, dead plant and animal matter, soil, and varying degrees of ice, permafrost is mainly found near the poles, covering parts of Greenland, Alaska, Northern Canada, Siberia and Scandinavia.
    • The Arctic region is a vast ocean, covered by thick ice on the surface (called sea ice), surrounded by land masses that are also covered with snow and ice.

    Permafrost thawing

    • When permafrost thaws, water from the melted ice makes its way to the caves along with ground sediments, and deposits on the rocks.
    • In other words, when permafrost thaws, the rocks grow and when permafrost is stable and frozen, they do not grow.

    Why thawing?

    • The link between the Siberian permafrost and Arctic sea ice can be explained by two factors:
    • One is heat transport from the open Arctic Ocean into Siberia, making the Siberian climate warmer.
    • The second is moisture transport from open seawater into Siberia, leading to thicker snow cover that insulates the ground from cold winter air, contributing to its warming.
    • This is drastically different from the situation just a couple of decades ago when the sea ice acted as a protective layer, maintaining cold temperatures in the region and shielding the permafrost from the moisture from the ocean.
    • If sea ice (in the summer) is gone, permafrost start thawing.

    Impact on Climate Change

    • Due to relentlessly rising temperatures in the region, since the late-twentieth century, the Arctic sea ice and surrounding land ice are melting at accelerating rates.
    • When permafrost thaws due to rising temperatures, the microbes in the soil decompose the dead organic matter (plants and animals) to produce methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), both potent greenhouse gases.
    • CH4 is at least 80 times more powerful than CO2 on a decadal timescale and around 25 times more powerful on a century timescale.
    • The greenhouse gases produced from thawing permafrost will further increase temperatures which will, in turn, lead to more permafrost thawing, forming an unstoppable and irreversible self-reinforcing feedback loop.
    • Experts believe this process may have already begun. Giant craters and ponds of water (called ‘thermokarst lakes’) formed due to thawing have been recorded in the Arctic region. Some are so big that they can be seen from space.

    Why a matter of concern?

    • An estimated 1,700 billion tonnes — twice the amount currently present in the atmosphere — of carbon is locked in all of the world’s permafrost.
    • Even if half of that were to be released to the atmosphere, it would be game over for the climate.
    • Scientific estimates suggest that the Arctic Ocean could be largely sea ice-free in the summer months by as early as 2030, based on observational trends, or as late as 2050, based on climate model projections.

  • [op-ed of the day] Weathering the storm

    Context

    State of Climate of India report by IMD should occasion interventions to make people resilient to extreme weather events.

    What does the report confirm?

    • Frequent extreme weather events: The report states that extreme weather events have become par for the course in the country.
    • The report notes that excessive heat, cold and rainfall killed 1,562 people during the year.
    • Intense dry spells, even droughts, were interspersed with floods in several parts of the country
    • Above normal temperature:  The mean temperature last year was 0.36 above normal.
    • The excess rainfall: The country also recorded excess rainfall during both the southwest and northeast monsoons.

    Long-term meteorological trends:

    • The IMD report should be seen in conjunction with long-term meteorological trends.
    • The warmest decade: The World Meteorological Organisation reckons that the decade starting 2011 remains on track to be the warmest on record.
    • Increase in the relative humidity: At the same time, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast shows that the relative humidity in the mid-troposphere in the Subcontinent has increased by about 2 percent in the past four decades.
    • Such warming has increased the capacity of oceans to form intense cyclonic disturbances.

    Implications for disaster-preparedness:

    • Cyclones: Last year, as the IMD report notes, the Indian Ocean witnessed eight cyclones.
    • Cyclones don’t kill but buildings can turn hazardous during such extreme weather events.
    • The vulnerability of the poor: In Odisha winds blowing at more than 140 kilometers per hour ripped off roofs and window frames in modern houses and also exposed the vulnerability of the mud and bamboo houses of the poor.
    • Guidelines: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs does have guidelines for climate-friendly construction.
    • But planners in coastal cities and towns rarely pay heed to its provisions.
    • Cooperation between the states: The changing dynamics of weather also demands cooperation between states that share a river basin.
    • Maharashtra and Karnataka bickered over opening the gates of the Almatti dam on the Krishna.

    Implications for the farmers:

    • For farmers, vagaries in nature mean disruptions in the entire cropping cycle.
    • This year, Kerala, southern Karnataka, and Gujarat were heavily deficient till July.
    • But within a few days in the last week of July, these states recorded surplus rainfall.
    • Rainwater storage and use: Increasing their resilience calls for efficient rainwater storage and use.

    Conclusion:

    It’s clear that dealing with exceptional weather will require interventions at the national, state and local levels. The Statement on Climate of India 2019 drives home the urgency of such interventions.

  • Blaze down under

    Context

    In Australia, forest fires, among the worst in the country’s history, have been raging since September and show no signs of abating.

     Unabated fire in Australia

    • The fire, worst in Australia’s history, has been raging since September and shows no signs of abating.
    • At least 24 people lost their lives, 500 million animal have perished, and more than 12bn acres of land has turned to cinders.
    • New South Wales, the country’s worst-affected state, declared an emergency last week in its southeastern region.

    Climate change and the fire

    • Australians have vented their anger at Prime Minister for playing down the blaze’s association with climate change.
    • Bushfires are actually a part of Australia’s ecosystem. Many plants depend on them to cycle nutrients and clear vegetation.
    • Eucalyptus trees in Australia depend on fire to release their seeds.
    • The prolonged blaze this year has coincided with Australia’s harshest summer.
    • Parts of the country recorded their highest recorded temperature in December.
    • Much of Australia is facing a drought that is a result of three consecutive summers with very little precipitation.
    • This, according to climate scientists, is unprecedented.
    • Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s 2018 State of the Climate report had given a hint of the change.
    • It said “Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1 degree Celsius since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.’’
    • This has led to more rainfall in northern Australia but created drought-like conditions in the more densely populated southeast.

    Damage caused to the flora and fauna of Australia

    • Australia is home to nearly 250 animal species.
    • Some of them like the koalas and kangaroos are not found elsewhere.
    • The region also has the highest rate of native animals going extinct over the past 200 years.
    • Experts, for example, reckon that more than a quarter of the koala habitat has been consumed by the blaze.
    • The fires have also caused a drop in the bird, rodent and insect populations.

    Conclusion

    • These creatures perished are the building blocks of the ecosystem and the fall in their population is bound to have long-term impacts. In Australia’s bushfires lies a warning about the complex ways in which climate variables interact.

  • Carbon Stock in Indian forests

    • The State of Forest Report (SFR) 2019 has shown an increase in the carbon stock trapped in Indian forests in the last two years.
    • However it shows why it is going to be an uphill task for India in meeting one of its international obligations on climate change.

    India’s carbon commitment

    • India, as part of its contribution to the global fight against climate change, has committed itself to creating an “additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent” by 2030.
    • That is one of the three targets India has set for itself in its climate action plan, called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, that every country has to submit under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
    • The other two relate to an improvement in emissions intensity and an increase in renewable energy deployment.
    • India has said it would reduce its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33% to 35% by 2030 compared to 2005.
    • It has also promised to ensure that at least 40% of its cumulative electricity generation in 2030 would be done through renewable energy.

    What is the relationship between forests and carbon?

    • Forests, by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for the process of photosynthesis, act as a natural sink of carbon.
    • Together with oceans, forests absorb nearly half of global annual carbon dioxide emissions.
    • In fact, the carbon currently stored in the forests exceeds all the carbon emitted in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age.
    • An increase in the forest area is thus one of the most effective ways of reducing the emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere every year.

    How do the latest forest data translate into carbon equivalent?

    • The latest forest survey shows that the carbon stock in India’s forests (not including tree cover outside of forest areas) have increased from 7.08 billion tonnes in 2017.
    • This translates into 26.14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent as of now.
    • It is estimated that India’s tree cover outside of forests would contribute another couple of billion of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

    How challenging does this make it for India in meeting its target?

    • An assessment by the Forest Survey of India (FSI) last year had projected that, by 2030, the carbon stock in forests as well as tree cover was likely to reach 31.87 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • An additional 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of sink, as India has promised to do, would mean taking the size of the sink close to 35 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • Considering the rate of growth of the carbon sink in the last few years, that is quite a stiff target India has set for itself.
    • In the last two years, the carbon sink has grown by just about 0.6%%. Even compared to 2005, the size of carbon sink has increased by barely 7.5%.
    • To meet its NDC target, even with most optimistic estimates of carbon stock trapped in trees outside of forest areas, the sink has to grow by at least 15% to 20% over the next ten-year period.

    Way Forward

    • There are two key decisions to be made in this regard — selection of the baseline year, and addition of the contribution of the agriculture sector to carbon sink.
    • When India announced its NDC in 2015, it did not mention the baseline year.
    • India’s emissions intensity target uses a 2005 baseline, so there is an argument that the forest target should also have the same baseline.
    • But there is a strong demand for a 2015 baseline as well, so that it results in some concrete progress in adding new forest cover.
    • The NDC specifically mentions that and “additional” 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon sink would be created through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 MoEFCC insist that tree cover outside forest areas must include agriculture as well.
    • India would also have to specify whether it wants to count the carbon sink in the agriculture sector in its target.

  • UNFCC to Paris Via Kyoto

    Now that we know that anthropogenic global warming is a reality <IPCC 5th report says it with 95% certainty> and is already creating problems for us, we needed to do something about it.

    We can do two things –

    1. Mitigation – Reduce the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. How – Emit less <use electric cars instead of diesel cars> and remove whatever is present from the environment <plant more trees, geoengineering – carbon capture and storage etc.>
    2. Adaptation: Adjusting to climate change in order to reduce its vulnerability, and enhance the resilience <so we know there would be more droughts so producing drought proof seeds, more cyclones so early warning systems and cyclone shelters>

    Adaptation and mitigation are complementary to each other. For example, if mitigation measures are undertaken effectively, lesser will be the impacts to which we will need to adapt. Similarly, if adaptation measures (or the degree of preparedness) are strong, lesser might be the impacts associated with any given degree of climate change <if we reduce GHGs and global warming is less, we would need to produce less drought proof crops>

    Importance of Adaptation for Developing Countries

    • Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since those countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming and have less capacity to adapt.
    • Also, even if the GHG emission is reduced now, effect of already emitted GHG will be felt for many years.
    • Hence, India always focus on adaptation in international negotiations.

    Back to international negotiations

    As we have already discussed an international legally binding treaty was signed in 1997 in Kyoto based on the principles of UNFCC – i.e Common but differentiated responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR – RC) <Common i.e every country has the responsibility to reduce GHG but differentiated i.e rich countries have more responsibility as they are historically responsible plus respective capabilities i.e they are more capable of reducing GHG>, historical responsibility and primary responsibility for reducing emissions was placed on developed countries.

    Annexes of Kyoto Protocol

    • Annex 1 – Industrialised Countries (mainly OECD) plus economies in transition (mainly former soviet block countries) – They would mandatorily reduce GHGs, base year – 1990
    • Annex 2 – Subset of Annex 1,  Industrialised Countries (mainly OECD), would also provide finances and technology to non annex countries
    • Non annex – not included in annex, all other countries, no binding targets
    • Annex A – gases covered under Kyoto <name those 7 gases>
    • Annex B – Binding targets for each Annex 1 country i.e Japan will reduce emission by X%, Australia by Y% <what was the total cumulative reduction in emission this way?>

    So in KP, a country say Australia will be told you can emit no more than X units of CO2 till 2020. Now it’s a very onerous requirement and what is Australia is not able to achieve it .

    KP contains some flexible mechanisms to allow countries with reduction commitment to exceed their quota in some cases and allow market mechanism to work to allow best possible outcome for the society <Do markets really help here? Explain>

    Flexible Mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol

    1. Emission Trading –

    • Basically idea is that each country will be assigned some fix limit of CO2 emission
    • Those who exceed their emission can buy CO2 credit from those who emitted less than their quota
    • For instance is Australia was assigned 100 units and it emitted only 95, it can sell those 5 units to say Canada which exceeded its emission quota
    • This is cap and trade <cap emissions and trade>

    2. Offset Trading

    • very similar except in it a country earns credit by investing in projects which emit lesser amount of CO2.
    • For instance if canada replaces thermal plant with wind energy plant and saves 100 units of CO2, it can sell it to other countries
    • It is known as baseline and credit trading

    3. Clean Development Mechanism –

    • Annex 1 countries can undertake carbon reduction projects in annex 2 countries.
    • Reduced emission <certified emission reduction, CER> is counted towards their target. 
    • They can even sell such CERs in the market.
    • For instance, Australia <annex 1> providing financing and support for rural electrification project in India (annex 2) and saved emission (due to biomass burning) is it’s CER.

    4. Joint Implementation (JI) –

    Exactly similar to CDM except that two annex 1 countries are involved in this i.e Australia undertaking project in Britain

    How does trading work in reality?

    Each country would assign emission quota or efficiency quota to industries and they would trade for carbon credits and CERs.

    Market based trading schemes in India –

    1. Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT)

    • Under National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) in National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) <New missions proposed under NAPCC?>
    • aims to improve energy efficiency in industries by trading in energy efficiency certificates in energy-intensive sectors <funda is similar to carbon trading and energy saving certificates (ESCers) are issued>
    • Administered by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and in the 1st phase energy intensive sectors are covered

    2. Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Mechanism

    • Under renewable purchase obligation policy (RPO),Distribution companies ( DISCOMS) have obligation to purchase certain fixed % of renewable energy <of their total supply>
    • Renewable producer gets REC for feeding renewable to the grid and if DISCOMS are not able to meet their obligation, they can simply buy REC from the market.

    Bali Road map

    As we know 1st commitment period of KP was from 2008 to 2012 so countries met in Bali <which is the largest island of Indonesia?> in 2007 to discuss what happens after 2012 and Bali Road map was agreed under which-

    1. Adaptation Fund was launched
    2. Bali Action plan (BAP) was agreed <fattes related to adaptation, mitigation, tech transfer cooperation etc.>

    REDD and REDD plus

    • REDD – Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Degradation
    • REDD plus – REDD plus incentives for planting trees, enhancement of carbon stocks
    • So basically it provides a value to the carbon stored in forests and soil, and developed countries would give funds to developing countries for that

    Another summit in 2009 in Copenhagen <capital of Denmark> failed miserably and finally fast forward to 2015 Paris summit –

    Each country announced its intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) <bottom up approach> – clear cut bifurcation b/w annex 1 and non annex country done away with. To know what happened in Paris Click here 

  • Global Warming and Greenhouse Gases

    Read primer on environmental issues first if you have not read that 

     

    Global Warming

    Sun is the source of all energy and all life on earth. Sun emits energy in the form of short wave radiations (high energy i.e shortwave)-

    • A part of which is reflected back by clouds, aerosols, atmosphere
    • A part passes through the atmosphere to reach the earth’s surface which emits it back in the form of longwave radiation – Infra red (low energy, long wave) which warms the atmosphere <atmosphere is warmed by Longwave radiation not shortwave, hence temperature decreases with elevation so called lapse rate> <How does temperature inversion happen then?> and thus there is no net addition to earth’s temperature <oversimplified model but for now it would do>

    Note here that, at night when earth would be the net emitter, temperature would reach dangerously low levels. Then how is avg temperature of earth is maintained at levels conducive to life on earth?

    Role of Green Houses Gases

    • Such gases present in the atmosphere serve as a blanket which trap/absorb some of that Infrared radiation emitted by earth and send some of that back to earth <this effect is k/as Greenhouse effect, you would have observed this in car parked in Sun> and thus help maintain average temperature of earth to 14 <w/o such gases avg temperature would be -16 and life would be impossible on earth>
    • But any increase in such gases would result in more heat trapping resulting in increase in the temperature of earth being reflected in Global warming <Why is Venus hotter than Mercury when Mercury is closest to the Sun>

    Global warming changes the climate of earth hence Global Warming and climate change are often used anonymously.

    Greenhouse Gases

    Most abundant GHGs in earth’s atmosphere are–

    Water Vapour> CO2> CH4> N2O> Tropospheric Ozone>CFCs  <plz note that tropospheric ozone is both a GHG and a pollutant, also included under Air Quality Index. Which other gases are included in AQI?>

    • Water vapour has the max overall effect on greenhouse effect but as water vapour is not directly increased or decreased by Human activities, we are not concerned about amount of water vapour in the atmosphere <we are concerned about anthropogenic i.e human induced global warming>
    • But as atmosphere warms, there would be more water vapour <more water getting converted into vapour> which would trap even more heat, resulting in even warmer atmosphere <positive reinforcement, so called vicious cycle so common in climate systems>

    Global warming Effect of a GHG and GLobal Warming Potential (GWP)

    Each gas’ effect on climate change depends on three main factors:

    1. How Much <higher the concentration, higher the warming>
    2. How long <more the life span, greater the warming>
    3. How Powerful <efficiency of heat trapping>

    Last 2 factors together determine global warming potential

    GWP over 100 years time scale <reference GWP of co2 (lifetime 30-95 years) being taken as 1>

    • CH4 -25 <lifetime is only 12 years>
    • N2O- 300 <lifetime of >100 years>
    • CFC, HFCs, NF3, SF6 etc have over 1000 times GWP than that of CO2 as their lifetime is much longer <not easily degraded> and efficiency of trapping heat much higher.

    Let’s Now look at Global Emission by Economic Source

    Electricity and Heat Production (25%)>Agriculture, Forestry and land use changes  (contribution of agriculture alone is 14%)>Industry (21%)

    Kyoto Protocol of UNFCCC initially vowed to reduce concentration of 6 major GHGs and in 2nd Commitment period another gas was added. Let’s look at those 7 in detail

     

    1. CO2 – Burning down of Fossil fuels, cutting down and burning of Trees

    Concentration of CO2 has increased from 280 in 1750 (pre industrial revolution) to 400 in 2015 i.e increased by 40%

    1. CH4- Primary source is Agriculture and Animal Husbandry <cows and sheep produce methane when they digest food>, manure when it decays, released from wetlands <waterlogged areas>, leakages during natural gas extraction, transportation < Natural gas is nothing but methane>
    2. N20– Excess use of nitrogenous fertilizers and bacteria breaking down nitrogen <what is nitrogen fixation and bacteria which helps in that?>, Fossil fuel Burning, Industrial process (nitric acid, synthetic fibres) <what is laughing gas and tear gas?>
    3. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)– refrigerants, aerosol propellants, solvents, and fire retardants. They were used as replacement to CFC and HCFC which was phased out under Montreal Protocol (deplete ozone layer) but they are even more powerful GHG. Now USA is trying to include HFC in montreal protocol even though they do not deplete ozone  <what would then be used in refrigeration?>
    4. Perfluorocarbons (PFC) – aluminum production and semiconductors
    5. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) – magnesium processing and semiconductor manufacturing, tracer gas for leak detection, electrical transmission equipment, induding circuit breakers.  
    6. Nitrogen Trifluoride (NF3) – latest addition, uses similar to PFCs in electronics industry, semiconductors
    • Note 1 – CFCs and HCFCs which are potent GHGs are not included in Kyoto Protocol as they were already being phased out under Montreal Protocol
    • Note 2 – Only molecule containing both Chlorine and Fluorine deplete ozone layer, Fluorinated compounds do not, so HFC, NF3, SF6, PFC etc do not deplete ozone layer

    Short Lived and Long Lived Climate Forcers

    • Factors external to the climate system which force or push the climate towards a new long-term state – either warmer  or cooler depending on the cause of change.
    • For instance, GHGs would be positive climate forcers (both natural and anthropogenic) as they push climate warming.
    • Long-life gases such as CO2, N2O,Fluorinated compounds once emitted exert their effect for long and are k/as Long Lived climate forcers.
    • On the other hand gases such as Methane, tropospheric ozone have a very short life and reducing their emission will quickly lead to reduction in their concentration. Black Carbon or soot is one such very short lived climate forcer.

    Black carbon –component of fine particulate matter and is formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It’s a positive climate forcing agent and warms the atmosphere by –

    1. Directly absorbing sunlight
    2. Reducing albedo when deposited on snow and ice <what is albedo?>
    3. Indirectly by effects on cloud formation

     

    It has major adverse health effects also <you know about PM 2.5> and contains many carcinogens <cancer causing agent>

    Note-  BC is the most effective form of PM, by mass, at absorbing solar energy: per unit of mass in the atmosphere, BC can absorb a million times more energy than CO2

    1. Effect of clouds on global warming?
    2. What is brown carbon and blue carbon?

    Some short lived climate Forcers have cooling effects. For instance – Sulfur aerosols . Fossil fuel combustion emits sulfur dioxide also which then combines with water vapour to form tiny droplets (aerosols) which reflect sunlight <but aerosol lasts 3 days, CO2 warms for 100 years>. But same Sulfur/sulfate is responsible for acid rain

    These aerosols are responsible for cooling observed after volcanic eruption and are being investigated for geoengineering <what is geoengineering?>

    Now a few charts you need to look at carefully as they would form the basis of climate negotiations we would discuss in the next article

    1. Top 10 Absolute emitters of the world

    China is the world’s largest emitter and emits about 1/4th of total world emission. India is at 4th spot.

    2. Top 10 Absolute emitter in per capita terms

    Note that the chart below describes emissions of top 10 absolute emitters only. Among all countries, Qatar top the list. See how low India’s per capita emissions are

    3. Emission intensity

    It matters as India has pledged to reduce its emission intensity <by how much? what did China promise?> even though our intensity is already at the level of EU. One of the reason of our low intensity is domination of services sector which is comparatively less energy and GHG intense but as India tries to push it’s manufacturing sector achieving the target of emission intensity might become a tall order

    4. Cumulative GHG emission

    They describe a country’s total historic emissions and thus historical responsibility. Just look at the share of US and EU. India’s is not even 5% with 17% of global population

    In the next part we will discuss climate negotiations.

  • Primer To Environmental Issues

     

    Since the advent of Industrial revolution humankind has been exploiting the nature like never before. Forests and trees are cut to make way for agriculture land, large factories, transport vehicles etc emit lots of CO2 and other gases and pollutants. But it was all forgotten as it came with immense prosperity.

    But since the 2nd half of 20th century, citizens world over started getting conscious of this unbridled exploitation of nature. There were also signs suggesting this exploitation was unsustainable and harming us. That even the climate was changing.

    Climate is the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period. Climate of any region is generally stable. Climate change is changes in that stable climate due to anthropocentric or natural factors.

    In 1966, the World Meteorological Organization  (WMO) proposed the term climatic change to encompass all forms of climatic variability on time-scales longer than 10 years, whether the cause was natural or anthropogenic. But soon it was realized that major factor was human intervention and since then we are concerned about anthropogenic climate change.

    International Conferences on Environment 

     

    UN conference on Human Environment (UNCHE):-

    • An international conference under the UN aegis in 1972- UN conference at Stockholm to discuss issues realted to environment and development
    • came out with a declaration containing 26 principles concerning environment and development
    • led to creation of UN Environment Programme (UNEP)- an agency of United Nations with HQ in Nairobi, Kenya, which coordinates its environmental activities and assist developing countries in implementing environmentally sound policies

    World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED)-

    • As things did not change much after UNCHE and its Declaration remained on paper, UN set up a commission in 1984 to give a report on environment and development, World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) – Brundtland Commission <after its chairperson Norwegian PM’s name>
    • Came out with the report Our Common Future in 1987 and enunciated the concept of sustainable development
    • Gave the most iconic definition of that concept to this date

    Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

    Note that the definition contains two key concepts-

    • the concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and
    • the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs <so called carrying capacity>

    In 1988, UNEP <set up after UNCHE) and WMO set up an organization called IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change which analyses and synthesizes scientific literature available on climate change and produces assessment reports (1st in 1990, 2nd 1995, 3rd- 2001, 4th- 2207, 5th -2014)

    UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)-

    Brundtland commission report resulted in landmark 1992 summit, UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) at Rio De janeiro <What is Brazil’s capital?>, also k/a Earth Summit

    It resulted in 3 legally binding documents –

    1. UN framework convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) <entered into force in June 1994> <1st assessment report of IPCC had already come out in 1990>
    2. UN Convention on Biological Diversity (UNCBD) <entered into force in DEC 1993>
    3. UN convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) <entered into force in Dec 1996>

    The summit also resulted in 3 non-binding documents

    1. Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
    2. Agenda 21 <21 is agenda for 21st century, UNCCD was the result of direct recommendation of Agenda 21>
    3. Forest Principles

    World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)-

    • 10 years after 1st earth summit, another Summit took place, this time in Johannesburg , known as World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD).
    • US boycotted the summit and I don’t need to tell you the fallout of that

    UN conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) –

    • Another earth summit was convened 10 years later, this time again in Rio, UN conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD). <Are you following that they are changing the name of summits and if you don’t pay close attention, you can mark an MCQ incorrect.>
    • Primary Outcome of the summit was the non binding document <documents of every summit were non binding> The Future We Want
    • Summit also Proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to replace Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015. <MDG were agreed upon at the UN’s millennium summit in 2000>

    Meeting of parties to UNFCC

    Meanwhile after coming into force of UNFCC in 1994, various parties (nations) to the conference started meeting every year to come to a legally binding document to reduce GHG to  a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

    Kyoto Protocol –

    • In 3rd such meeting in 1997, called CoP 3 (3rd Conference of Parties) at Kyoto, Japan, Parties came to a conclusion and Kyoto Protocol was signed <entered into force in 2002> <there are frameworks/conventions and under them there are protocols which contain detailed legally binding provisions>
    • Basic objective was to reduce emission of anthropogenic GHG to limit global warming. It followed the principles of UNFCC such as Common But Differential Responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC)
    • USA never ratified the KP, Canada walked out in 2011. But anyway 1st commitment period followed from 2008-2012.
    • 2nd Commitment period is from 2012 to 2020 in which only 37 countries have binding targets. <Japan, NZ and Russia participated in 1st commitment period but not in 2nd>

    As KP clearly seemed to be failing, negotiation started for separate treaty under UNFCC for measures to be taken after 2020 resulting in Paris Agreement of Dec. 2015.

    Meeting of Parties to CBD

    Similarly Parties to CBD started meeting since 1994 <they meet every 2 years while UNFCC parties meet every year>. Convention has 3 main goals <UNFCCC only 1 – Climate change>

    1. conservation of biological diversity
    2. sustainable use of its components; and
    3. fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources

    Cartagena Protocol – At COP 5 in 2000, they adopted Cartagena protocol on Biosafety –  to protect biological diversity from the potential risks posed by living modified organisms resulting from modern biotechnology..

    Nagoya Protocol– In 2010 they adopted -Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilization

    UN declared the decade 2010-2020 as decade of biodiversity

    UN convention to Combat Desertification–

    • UNCCD is  the only internationally legally binding framework set up to address the problem of desertification
    • The Convention is based on the principles of participation, partnership and decentralization
    • in 1994 treaty signed to prevent and reverse land degradation
    • in 2009, agreed on 11 indicators to measure progress towards the goal of reducing land degradation
    • In 2013 Canada withdrew from this convention as well

    Montreal Protocol – A similar environmental  issue which came into prominence in 1980s was ozone hole or ozone depletion. To recover lost ozone, in 1987 Montreal Protocol(to Vienna convention) on substances that deplete ozone was signed and it was a remarkable success.

    Many other international organization sprang up in 80s and 90s to protect environment and biodiversity. Many other conventions were also signed. Some of them are –

    1. Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)
    2. Minamata Convention on Mercury
    3. Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal
    4. Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade
    5. Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage
    6. Ramsar Convention on Wetlands <where is Ramsar?>
    7. Bonn convention on  Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals<Capital of East and West Germany?>
    8. Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, Washington Convention

    Before we end this chapter, a brief summary

    • 1972 – UN conference on Human Environment at Stockholm, Formation of UNEP
    • 1987- World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED)-Brundtland commission, report- Our Common Future, Defined Sustainable Development
    • 1987 – Montreal Protocol to Vienna Convention
    • 1988 – WMO and UNEP together formed IPCC
    • 1992 – UN conference on Environment and Development / earth summit at Rio, led to UNFCC, UNNCCD, CBD
    • 1997 – Kyoto Protocol
    • 2002 – World Summit on Sustainable Development /Rio + 10 at Johannesburg
    • 2012 – UN conference on sustainable development/ Rio + 20, report – future we want, SDGs

    Plz note that in the pic above, conference of 1972 and 1992 are interchanged. Learn what is written in text.

    In the subsequent articles we would now discuss these issues (climate change, ozone depletion, acid rain, air pollution. biodiversity etc) in detail.

  • Coal is parching the planet as well as cooking it!

    source: Greenpeace Report

    The coal industry’s effects on water-deficient areas in the near future poses the most serious threat to water security around the world.

    Greenpeace’s analysis of the global coal-water conflict shows that the five countries with the highest water consumption by current coal power plants in red-list areas are, in order of magnitude, China, India, US, Kazakhstan and Canada.

    The world is reliant on coal for around 40% of its electricity generation and fast-growing countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are expected to join Asia’s three largest economies China, Japan and India in becoming big burners of coal.

    Although countries agreed to include 1.5C and 2C temperature targets in the Paris Climate Agreement signed in Paris last December, only a scaling up of national climate targets, and a major reallocation of energy finance, are likely to deliver a decisive shift away from coal in the power generation mix.

    Recommendations

    To reduce the coal industry’s demands on water use, Greenpeace says water management should be taken into account in all regional planning, and major restrictions placed on coal industry projects when their water demand exceeds the availability of water.

    A phase-out of coal, a long-held goal of environmental groups, should be prioritised in areas of water stress, the report adds. Policymakers should also opt for renewables, which use much less water than coal.

     

    Published with inputs from thethirdpole

  • Outcome of Paris Climate Summit

    Paris Agreement was recently adopted by 195 countries of UNFCCC, which agreed to take measures to control climate change.

    We had written 4 explainers for a comprehensive coverage and they can be read here – 

    As we move ahead, let’s take a look at this agreement with respect to various dimensions and debates, which are going on in the international sphere.

    When this agreement will enter into force?

    The agreement in Paris will come into effect only after 2020 when the Kyoto Protocol, an existing international mechanism to deal with climate change, comes to an end.

    What is the temperature goal?

    The agreement says that its objective is to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius, but pursue efforts to keep it below 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times.

    It also says that IPCC will come with a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degree Celsius and above pre-industrial levels. <IPCC reports form the scientific basis on which the world is taking climate action>

    Let’s analyse the implications

    • Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing Countries (SIDCs) were demanding that the rising temperature be kept under 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times.
    • LDCs fear that cost of adaptation will be high, if the temperature is allowed to risee upto 2 degree Celsius.

    What about Finance and Technology Transfer ?

    Finance

    Developed nations have been asked to provide financial resources, but $ 100 bn mark does not figure in the agreement. $ 100 bn has been shifted to the decision text, which is a list of all decisions taken at the conference.

    Developing countries are also asked to raise financial resources, even as voluntary effort.< This was one of the demands of the developed countries to widen the base of countries who will provide financial resources>

    There has to be a balance between the mitigation and adaptation needs of the developing countries, while allocating financial resources.

    Technology

    The developed countries to abide by their promises to provide technology development and transfer, and capacity building to developing countries.

    Why is it a matter of concern?

    • Paris Agreement is a permanent document, while the decisions of the conference can be modified.
    • This gives a message that developed nations will provide $ 100 bn every year from 2020, but they will not increase it annually, as demanded by developing countries.

    Carbon Neutral, by when?

    The agreement says that, world should peak emissions as soon as possible and achieve a balance between sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the second half of this century.

    This means that to limit the amount of GHG emitted by human activity to the same levels which can be absorbed naturally such as trees, soil, ocean, etc beginning 2050.

    What happens to INDCs?

    In the run-up to the Paris conference, 186 countries submitted their INDCs, giving information about the climate actions they planned to take until 2025 or 2030. INDCs would henceforth be called only Nationally Determined Contributions.

    Every country needs to communicate NDCs every 5 years. Each NDC has to be progressively more ambitious than the previous one.

    However, NDCs are not legally binding, i.e. the targets set by nations will not be binding under the Paris Climate Agreement. <India, China and South Africa were unwilling to sign up for this condition because they felt that it could hamper economic growth and development>

    What is Global Stocktake?

    • It refers to a proposed a 5-yearly review of the impact of countries climate change actions.
    • It will assess whether the net result of the climate actions being taken was consistent with the goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature from pre-industrial times to within 2 degree Celsius.
    • It is mandatory for every country to participate in the global stocktake, the exercise will not assess whether actions of any individual country are adequate or not.

    The best part of global stocktake is that it will also assess whether developed countries are adequate help to developing countries by providing money and technology.

    Is Differentiation principle at Stake?

    Experts are divided on whether developed countries succeeded in their effort to do away with concept of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities.

    The Paris agreement firmly anchors ‘differentiation’ for developing countries. At many places, differentiation is achieved by having different kind of commitments for developed and developing countries.

    Developed countries are expected to take the lead on mitigation and support, while developing countries are expected to take actions within the context of their sustainable development and poverty eradication imperatives.

    Let’s see what is the other point of view.

    • All parties have to report NDCs every 5 years.
    • There is no differentiation in reporting, inventory of GHGs and progress made in implementation of NDCs.< Inventory is basically a list of all units which release GHGs>
    • The stocktake is universal for aggregate actions and it will happen in 2023 and every 5 years henceforth.
    • Developed countries are asked to take absolute economy-wide emission reduction targets, while developing countries will enhance mitigation efforts, but are encouraged to move towards economy-wide reduction in the light of national circumstances.
    Published with inputs from Pushpendra