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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • [op-ed of the day] Weathering the storm

    Context

    State of Climate of India report by IMD should occasion interventions to make people resilient to extreme weather events.

    What does the report confirm?

    • Frequent extreme weather events: The report states that extreme weather events have become par for the course in the country.
    • The report notes that excessive heat, cold and rainfall killed 1,562 people during the year.
    • Intense dry spells, even droughts, were interspersed with floods in several parts of the country
    • Above normal temperature:  The mean temperature last year was 0.36 above normal.
    • The excess rainfall: The country also recorded excess rainfall during both the southwest and northeast monsoons.

    Long-term meteorological trends:

    • The IMD report should be seen in conjunction with long-term meteorological trends.
    • The warmest decade: The World Meteorological Organisation reckons that the decade starting 2011 remains on track to be the warmest on record.
    • Increase in the relative humidity: At the same time, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast shows that the relative humidity in the mid-troposphere in the Subcontinent has increased by about 2 percent in the past four decades.
    • Such warming has increased the capacity of oceans to form intense cyclonic disturbances.

    Implications for disaster-preparedness:

    • Cyclones: Last year, as the IMD report notes, the Indian Ocean witnessed eight cyclones.
    • Cyclones don’t kill but buildings can turn hazardous during such extreme weather events.
    • The vulnerability of the poor: In Odisha winds blowing at more than 140 kilometers per hour ripped off roofs and window frames in modern houses and also exposed the vulnerability of the mud and bamboo houses of the poor.
    • Guidelines: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs does have guidelines for climate-friendly construction.
    • But planners in coastal cities and towns rarely pay heed to its provisions.
    • Cooperation between the states: The changing dynamics of weather also demands cooperation between states that share a river basin.
    • Maharashtra and Karnataka bickered over opening the gates of the Almatti dam on the Krishna.

    Implications for the farmers:

    • For farmers, vagaries in nature mean disruptions in the entire cropping cycle.
    • This year, Kerala, southern Karnataka, and Gujarat were heavily deficient till July.
    • But within a few days in the last week of July, these states recorded surplus rainfall.
    • Rainwater storage and use: Increasing their resilience calls for efficient rainwater storage and use.

    Conclusion:

    It’s clear that dealing with exceptional weather will require interventions at the national, state and local levels. The Statement on Climate of India 2019 drives home the urgency of such interventions.

  • Blaze down under

    Context

    In Australia, forest fires, among the worst in the country’s history, have been raging since September and show no signs of abating.

     Unabated fire in Australia

    • The fire, worst in Australia’s history, has been raging since September and shows no signs of abating.
    • At least 24 people lost their lives, 500 million animal have perished, and more than 12bn acres of land has turned to cinders.
    • New South Wales, the country’s worst-affected state, declared an emergency last week in its southeastern region.

    Climate change and the fire

    • Australians have vented their anger at Prime Minister for playing down the blaze’s association with climate change.
    • Bushfires are actually a part of Australia’s ecosystem. Many plants depend on them to cycle nutrients and clear vegetation.
    • Eucalyptus trees in Australia depend on fire to release their seeds.
    • The prolonged blaze this year has coincided with Australia’s harshest summer.
    • Parts of the country recorded their highest recorded temperature in December.
    • Much of Australia is facing a drought that is a result of three consecutive summers with very little precipitation.
    • This, according to climate scientists, is unprecedented.
    • Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s 2018 State of the Climate report had given a hint of the change.
    • It said “Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1 degree Celsius since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.’’
    • This has led to more rainfall in northern Australia but created drought-like conditions in the more densely populated southeast.

    Damage caused to the flora and fauna of Australia

    • Australia is home to nearly 250 animal species.
    • Some of them like the koalas and kangaroos are not found elsewhere.
    • The region also has the highest rate of native animals going extinct over the past 200 years.
    • Experts, for example, reckon that more than a quarter of the koala habitat has been consumed by the blaze.
    • The fires have also caused a drop in the bird, rodent and insect populations.

    Conclusion

    • These creatures perished are the building blocks of the ecosystem and the fall in their population is bound to have long-term impacts. In Australia’s bushfires lies a warning about the complex ways in which climate variables interact.

  • Carbon Stock in Indian forests

    • The State of Forest Report (SFR) 2019 has shown an increase in the carbon stock trapped in Indian forests in the last two years.
    • However it shows why it is going to be an uphill task for India in meeting one of its international obligations on climate change.

    India’s carbon commitment

    • India, as part of its contribution to the global fight against climate change, has committed itself to creating an “additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent” by 2030.
    • That is one of the three targets India has set for itself in its climate action plan, called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, that every country has to submit under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
    • The other two relate to an improvement in emissions intensity and an increase in renewable energy deployment.
    • India has said it would reduce its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33% to 35% by 2030 compared to 2005.
    • It has also promised to ensure that at least 40% of its cumulative electricity generation in 2030 would be done through renewable energy.

    What is the relationship between forests and carbon?

    • Forests, by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for the process of photosynthesis, act as a natural sink of carbon.
    • Together with oceans, forests absorb nearly half of global annual carbon dioxide emissions.
    • In fact, the carbon currently stored in the forests exceeds all the carbon emitted in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age.
    • An increase in the forest area is thus one of the most effective ways of reducing the emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere every year.

    How do the latest forest data translate into carbon equivalent?

    • The latest forest survey shows that the carbon stock in India’s forests (not including tree cover outside of forest areas) have increased from 7.08 billion tonnes in 2017.
    • This translates into 26.14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent as of now.
    • It is estimated that India’s tree cover outside of forests would contribute another couple of billion of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

    How challenging does this make it for India in meeting its target?

    • An assessment by the Forest Survey of India (FSI) last year had projected that, by 2030, the carbon stock in forests as well as tree cover was likely to reach 31.87 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • An additional 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of sink, as India has promised to do, would mean taking the size of the sink close to 35 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
    • Considering the rate of growth of the carbon sink in the last few years, that is quite a stiff target India has set for itself.
    • In the last two years, the carbon sink has grown by just about 0.6%%. Even compared to 2005, the size of carbon sink has increased by barely 7.5%.
    • To meet its NDC target, even with most optimistic estimates of carbon stock trapped in trees outside of forest areas, the sink has to grow by at least 15% to 20% over the next ten-year period.

    Way Forward

    • There are two key decisions to be made in this regard — selection of the baseline year, and addition of the contribution of the agriculture sector to carbon sink.
    • When India announced its NDC in 2015, it did not mention the baseline year.
    • India’s emissions intensity target uses a 2005 baseline, so there is an argument that the forest target should also have the same baseline.
    • But there is a strong demand for a 2015 baseline as well, so that it results in some concrete progress in adding new forest cover.
    • The NDC specifically mentions that and “additional” 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon sink would be created through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 MoEFCC insist that tree cover outside forest areas must include agriculture as well.
    • India would also have to specify whether it wants to count the carbon sink in the agriculture sector in its target.

  • Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.