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Subject: Economics

  • Unlock India’s food processing potential

    Context

    One of the largest producers of fruits and vegetables in the world to boost processed food in large quantities, India has formulated a unique Production-Linked Incentive Scheme (PLIS) which aims to incentivise incremental sales.

    Progress made so far

    • A sum of ₹10,900 crore has been earmarked for the scheme.
    • Beneficiaries have been obliged to commit a minimum investment while applying for the scheme.
    • Under Category 1, firms are incentivised for incremental sales and branding/marketing initiatives taken abroad.
    • Assuming the committed investment as a fixed ratio of their sales and undertaking execution of at least 75% of the projects, the sector is likely to witness at least ₹6,500 crore worth of investment over the next two years.
    • New alternatives are being explored which have immense potential in replacing the staples of rice and wheat in the form of Nutri-cereals, plant-based proteins, fermented foods, health bars and even fresh fortified foods for pets.
    • By welcoming the new brands in the category, PLIS aims to create an enabling ecosystem for innovation in both food products and processes.

    Way forward

    1] Improve infrastructure

    • A study in the United States concluded that a 1% increase in public infrastructure increased the food manufacturing output by 0.06% in the longer run (https://bit.ly/3rOeE0l).
    • This correlation holds good for India too as a higher investment is being concentrated in States such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
    • These States as reported by the Good Governance Index 2020-21, ranked among the highest in the ‘Public Infrastructure and Utilities’ parameter with ‘Connectivity to Rural Habitations’ showing the highest improvement.

    2] Improve profitability in export

    • For the exports market, it is now established that sales promotion is positively related to increased sales volume, but inversely related to profitability.
    • To bridge this gap, of the 13 key sectors announced under the PLIS, the ‘Food Processing PLIS’ earmarks a dedicated Category 3 for supporting branding and marketing activities in foreign markets. 
    •  This ensures that India’s share of value-added products in the exports basket is improved, and it may leverage on its unique geographical proximity to the untapped markets of Europe, the Middle East/West Asia, Africa, Oceania and Japan.

    3] Access to credit

    •  The access of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to finance is a perennial problem in the country, predominating due to a lack of proper credit history mechanism for MSMEs.
    • Smart financing alternatives such as peer-to-peer (P2P) lending hold potential for micro-food processors.
    • Access to working capital has in theory been addressed by the Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS), a platform for facilitating the financing/discounting of trade receivables of MSMEs through multiple financiers.

    Conclusion

    With growing populations, changing food habits and unrestricted use of natural resources, nations must come together and lay out a road map for a common efficient food value chain.

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  • The consequences of an ill-considered green strategy

    Context

    Europe’s push for renewable energy at the cost of conventional fuel may end up causing a global food crisis.

    Consequences of fuel shortage in Western Europe

    • Since August 2021, Western Europe has faced a problem with renewable energy – the wind doesn’t always blow when needed and the sun doesn’t always shine.
    • Commodity markets across the world operate on a balance of demand and supply — even seemingly “small” changes in either side of a few percentage points can push the prices up or down sharply.
    • High energy bills: Higher gas prices have pushed up energy bills for households and are expected to impact household spending and consumption as well.
    • High urea prices: Natural gas is used to produce urea – if gas prices go up, fertiliser also becomes expensive.
    •  Some poor and middle-income countries are already starting to face problems of fertiliser availability — there are reports from several Indian states as well. 
    • High food prices: The impact of expensive fertiliser will be felt some months down the line as expensive fertiliser and reduced harvests push up food prices.
    • India is relatively less affected as the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix is low but will still face problems due to high food prices.
    • In 2007-08, when oil prices were high, there was a push to use “biofuels” led by the US and Europe.
    •  The effects of the 2008 food price crisis were felt around the world, especially by the poor.

    Lessons for India

    • Cheap and reliable energy sources should not be abandoned until the alternatives have been stringently stress tested.
    • India will be especially hard hit if oil prices spike as it imports close to 1.4 billion barrels of oil annually.

    Consider the question “What are the inherent dangers in rapid transition to the green energy? Suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    A blind push to shut down traditional sources of energy and move to less reliable “clean” energy can have second and third order effects.

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  • Dealing with the macroeconomic uncertainties

    Context

    Macroeconomic uncertainties are mounting.

    Impact of US Fed’s decision

    • Against the backdrop of possible interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the taper tantrum, there is pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase its interest rates to prevent capital outflows.
    • The monetary policy corridor is still “accommodative” to support the growth recovery.
    • Globally, central banks have started increasing the interest rates.

    Macroeconomic uncertainties

    1] Inflationary pressure

    •  In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to a record high of 14.32% in November 2021 as per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
    • The consumer price index (CPI) inflation now is 5.03%, though that is still within the comfort zone of the inflation targeting framework envisaged in India’s new monetary framework.
    • The official nominal inflation anchor in India is 4%, with a band of variations of +/- 2. 

    2] Absorbing excess liquidity

    • The RBI Financial Stability Report, published on December 29, 2021, revealed a possible worsening of the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio of scheduled commercial banks — from 6.9% in September 2021 to 9.5% by September 2022.
    • Absorbing the excess liquidity that was injected to stimulate growth as part of the pandemic response is crucial to reversing trends in non performing assets (NPAs).
    • Absorption of excess liquidity was attempted by increasing the cut-off yield rate of variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) to 3.99%, and curtailing the government securities acquisition programme.

    3] Interest rate structure and implications for government borrowing

    •  The call money market rates are below the repo rate.
    • The bond yields are increasing ahead of the Union Budget 2022-23.
    • The rise in bond yields will result in higher borrowing costs for the Government.

    Way forward for fiscal policy

    • Maintain accommodative policy stance: Given these macroeconomic uncertainties, maintaining an accommodative fiscal policy stance in the upcoming Union Budget for FY23 is crucial for a sustainable recovery.
    • Don’t focus on fiscal consolidation: Any attempt at fiscal consolidation at this juncture employing capital expenditure compression rather than a tax buoyancy path can adversely affect economic growth. 
    •  Public investment — infrastructure investment in particular — is a major growth driver through “crowding-in” of private corporate investment.
    • Strengthening investments in the health-care sector is crucial at this juncture as a prolonged lockdown can accentuate the current humanitarian crisis and deepen economic disruptions.
    • When credit-linked economic stimulus has an uneven impact on growth recovery, the significance of fiscal dominance cannot be undermined.
    • Address unemployment: Rising unemployment needs to be addressed through an urgent policy response that strengthens job guarantee programmes.

    Conclusion

    The upcoming Union Budget for 2022-23 should maintain an accommodative fiscal stance in order to support the sustainability of the economic growth process and also for financing human development.

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  • What is a K-shaped Economic Recovery?

    Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that the government needed to do more to prevent a K-shaped recovery of the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

    K-Shaped Recovery

    • A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes.
    • This is in contrast to an even, uniform recovery across sectors, industries, or groups of people.
    • A K-shaped recovery leads to changes in the structure of the economy or the broader society as economic outcomes and relations are fundamentally changed before and after the recession.
    • This type of recovery is called K-shaped because the path of different parts of the economy when charted together may diverge, resembling the two arms of the Roman letter “K.”

    Try these PYQ:

     

    Q.Economic growth in country X will necessarily have to occur if-

     

    (a) There is technical progress in the world economy

    (b) There is population growth in X

    (c) There is capital formation in X

    (d) The volume of trade grows in the world economy

    Implications of a K-Shaped Recovery

    • Households at the bottom have experienced a permanent loss of income in the forms of jobs and wage cuts; this will be a recurring drag on demand, if the labour market does not heal faster.
    • To the extent that Covid has triggered an effective income transfer from the poor to the rich, this will be demand-impeding because the poor tend to spend-instead of saving.
    • If Covid-19 reduces competition or increases the inequality of incomes and opportunities, it could impinge on trend growth in developing economies by hurting productivity and tightening political economy constraints.

    Also read:

    Shapes of Economic Recovery

     

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  • What are Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)?

    A French luxury fashion brand is suing American digital artist who created a series of NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), a rapidly growing part of the cryptoworld.

    Non-Fungible Tokens

    • An NFT is a unique, irreplaceable token that can be used to prove ownership of digital assets such as music, artwork, even tweets and memes.
    • The term ‘non-fungible’ simply means that each token is different as opposed to a fungible currency such as money (a ten-rupee note can be exchanged for another and so on).
    • Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are also fungible, which means that one Bitcoin can be exchanged for another.
    • But an NFT cannot be exchanged for another NFT because the two are different and therefore unique.
    • Each token has a different value, depending on which asset it represents.

    How does NFT transaction take place?

    • NFT transactions are recorded on blockchains, which is a digital public ledger, with most NFTs being a part of the Ethereum blockchain.
    • NFTs became popular in 2021, when they were beginning to be seen by artists as a convenient way to monetize their work.

    Why are they in high demand?

    • One of the other attractions is that NFTs are a part of a new kind of financial system called decentralized finance (DeFi), which does away with the involvement of institutions such as banks.
    • For this reason, decentralized finance is seen as a more democratic financial system because it makes access to capital easier for lay people by essentially eliminating the role of banks and other associated institutions.
    • Even so, because NFTs operate in a decentralized system, any person can sell a digital asset as one.
    • This can sometimes create problems. For instance, if you were to sell someone else’s artwork as an NFT, you could essentially be infringing on a copyright.

     

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  • [pib] One District One Product (ODOP) Initiative

    As a major boost to Centre and State collaboration in promoting products under the ODOP Initiative – a State Conference was recently held by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).

    One District One Product (ODOP)

    • ODOP spearheaded by the Uttar Pradesh government in 2018, is an important initiative that is being adopted all over India to realize the true potential of each district.
    • ODOP is an initiative which is seen as a transformational step forward towards realizing the true potential of a district, fuel economic growth and generates employment and rural entrepreneurship.
    • It is operationally merged with ‘Districts as Export Hub’ initiative being implemented by DPIIT as a major stakeholder.
    • The main philosophy is to select, brand and promote one product from each district of India that has a specific characteristic feature to enable profitable trade in that product and generate employment.

    Why need this scheme?

    • India is home to several agricultural and non-agricultural (including manufacturing) products that are region-specific.
    • Every district has products that are unique and provide livelihoods and generate income.
    • This scheme is in tune with the PM’s call to transform every district into an export hub and realize the goal of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

    What needs to be done for its success?

    The important aspect that the policy initiatives in India should thus be mindful of are:

    • Ownership of the initiative should lie at the center of implementation.
    • The stakeholders irrespective of the sector along the value chain need to be identified and provided information and awareness.
    • It is important to streamline other initiatives such as registration of Geographical Indications (GI), formation and development of farmer producer organizations etc.

     

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  • [pib] Sela Pass Tunnel Project

    The final blast for the 980-metre long Sela Tunnel was recently conducted by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) amidst inclement weather and heavy snowfall.

    Sela Pass Tunnel Project

    • The tunnel covers a total distance of 12.04 kms which consist of two tunnels of 1790 metres and 475 meters.
    • It is being built at an estimated cost of ₹687 crores by the Border Roads Organisation.
    • It aims to provide all weather connectivity to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh — an area claimed entirely by China — and other forward areas.
    • Once built it will cut travel time to Tawang by at least an hour for Indian troops stationed in adjoining Assam’s Tezpur town — the headquarters of the Indian army’s IV Corps.

    Strategic Importance

    • The lack of motorable roads and rail connections in India’s northeast and Arunachal Pradesh in particular were seen as distinct disadvantages for India vis a vis China in the region.
    • Analysts had been warning of China building infrastructure including access roads right up to the Indian border that would give it a strategic advantage in any conflict with India.
    • Once completed this would result in all weather connectivity to Tawang and forward areas and reduction in more than one hour of travelling time from Tezpur to Tawang.

     

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  • A chance to support growth, fiscal consolidation

    Context

    The adverse effect of the third wave of COVID-19, which is mainly affecting the last quarter of 2021-22, may call for a further downward adjustment in the growth rate to about 9%.

    Growth in FY 2021-22

    •  As per the NSO’s advance estimates, at the end of 2021-22, the magnitude of GDP in real terms is estimated at INR₹147.5-lakh crore that is only a shade higher than INR₹145.7-lakh crore in 2019-20.
    • Thus, due to the three waves of COVID-19 that India has experienced, two years of real growth in economic activities have been wiped out. 
    • As per the advance estimates, the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) relative to GDP at current prices stands at 29.6% in 2021-22.
    • Capacity utilisation in India continues to have considerable slack.
    • Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) also shows a low growth of 6.9% in 2021-22.
    • Any pick-up in demand would continue to be constrained by low-income growth in sectors characterised by a high marginal propensity to consume (MPC) such as the trade, transport, et al. sector and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) sector more broadly.
    • It may thus be prudent to expect a real GDP growth in the range of 6%-7%.
    • Growth in 2022-23 would also continue to be constrained by supply-side bottlenecks and high prices of global crude and primary products.
    • Growth in 2022-23 would depend on the basic determinants such as the saving and investment rates in the economy.

    Suggestions

    • Extend GST compensation period: The GST compensation provision would also come to an end in June 2022.
    • This would cause a major revenue shock at least for some States such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.
    • While this matter may be considered by the GST Council, the compensation arrangement should be extended by two years in some modified form.
    • With respect to non-tax receipts, the scope of the National Monetization Pipeline (NMP) may be extended to cover monetisation of government-owned land assets.
    • Disinvestment initiatives may have to be accelerated.
    • Expenditure prioritisation in 2022-23 should focus on reviving both consumption and investment demand.
    • Urban counterpart to MGNREGA: Since consumption demand remains weak, some fiscal support in the form of an urban counterpart to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may be considered.

    Focusing on fiscal consolidation

    • It would be appropriate now to consider a graduated return to fiscal consolidation while using fiscal policy to lay the base for faster growth in the years to come.
    • The Fifteenth Finance Commission had suggested a fiscal consolidation path where the Centre’s fiscal deficit was benchmarked at 5.5% of GDP for 2022-23.
    • In their pessimistic scenario, it was kept at 6% of GDP. 
    • It may be prudent to limit the reduction in fiscal deficit-GDP ratio to about 1% point of GDP in 2022-23.
    • This would imply a fiscal deficit in the range of 5.5%-6% of GDP.
    • From here on, a stepwise reduction of 0.5% points per year would enable a level of about 4% of GDP by 2025-26.
    • By this time, as suggested by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, a high-powered inter-governmental group should be constituted to re-examine the sustainability parameters of debt and fiscal deficit of the central and state governments.

    Conclusion

    Expenditure prioritisation in 2022-23 should focus on reviving both consumption and investment demand while aiming for the gradual return to the fiscal consolidation.

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  • Why 5G roll-outs are disrupting flights to the US?

    Air India said Boeing had cleared its B777 aircraft for flights to the US following concerns that the 5G roll-out there could interfere with critical aircraft functions.

    What is 5G Technology?

    • 5G or fifth generation is the latest upgrade in the long-term evolution (LTE) mobile broadband networks.
    • It’s a unified platform which is much more capable than previous mobile services with more capacity, lower latency, faster data delivery rate and better utilization of spectrum.

    How can 5G affect flight safety?

    • Airlines take off and land using auto-pilot systems, which use data from radar altimeters to determine the altitude of the aircraft.
    • Altimeters emit radio waves at 4.2-4.3 Gigahertz (GHz) frequency, which could interfere with a 5G band called C-Band, which lies between 3.7-4.4 GHz.
    • This interference can mess up the data. That’s the safety concern. Radio altimeters are used at airports and other low-altitude locations.
    • A different kind of altimeter, called pressure altimeter, is used for high altitude areas.
    • Not using auto-pilot would lead to more fuel consumption and higher costs for airlines.

    What happens to Air India’s operations?

    • While scheduled international flights, to and from India, remain suspended due to the pandemic, Air India operates flights to the US under an air bubble agreement.
    • These routes are served by the airline’s wide-body fleet of Boeing 777 and Boeing 787 planes.
    • The roll out of 5G is expected to primarily impact the operations of Boeing 777 and 747.

    Can this impact India’s 5G roll-out?

    • India’s 5G auctions are expected to include spectrum bands of 3.3GHz -3.6GHz, which means the C-Band may not be operational, at least in the near future.
    • Plus, aircraft equipment is manufactured globally, with certain standards.
    • The FAA tests will likely lead to standards for altimeters and applied internationally.
    • For aircraft makers, altimeters are key equipment. But they’re bought off-the-rack instead being designed in-house.
    • Once a standard is known, it can be implemented in all aircraft.

    Also read

    [Burning Issue] 5G Technology

  • The mobile phone sector has lessons for India’s economy

    Context

    The mobile phones and room air conditioners (RAC) sectors in recent times have shown us the formulae for expansion of the manufacturing sector and growing exports.

    How did India expand its mobile manufacturing base?

    • We were one of the largest consumers of mobile phones in 2014.
    • In 2014-15, our mobile phone imports exceeded $8 billion.
    • Our electronics imports were threatening to exceed our oil imports.
    • Steps taken by govt: The government took many steps like 100 per cent automatic FDI,
    • levy of import duties to protect local manufacturers,
    • the Phased Manufacturing Plan (PMP),
    • manufacturing clusters (EMC 2.0) and
    • the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
    • They have attracted investments, created lakhs of jobs, and have moved us from being a net importer to a net exporter.
    • Our mobile phone manufacturing value has jumped more than eight times from Rs 0.27 trillion in 2013-14 to Rs 2.2 trillion in 2020-21.
    • We have surpassed the US and South Korea to become the second-largest manufacturer globally.

    Steps need to be taken

    •  Our mobile phone exports are primarily limited to feature phones and low-value smartphones.
    • India must aim for a significant increase in exports from the current $4 billion.
    • China exports $200 billion, and Vietnam exports $60 billion worth of mobile phones.
    • The PLI scheme aims to achieve the same by allocating incentives of Rs 410 billion for the mobile phone category over the next five years.
    • Low value addition: Our value addition in mobile phone manufacturing is currently limited to 15-20 per cent versus more than 40 per cent in China.
    •  The scheme for promoting the manufacturing of electronic components and semiconductors (SPECS) is a step in the right direction.
    • We must focus on setting up a fabrication plant to manufacture semiconductor chips to facilitate complete vertical integration.

    The Room AC sector story

    •  We imported RACs worth Rs 41 billion in 2017-18.
    • The government initiated multiple measures such as the PMP scheme, banning the import of refrigerant-filled ACs, increasing the import duty on RACs and critical components, and the PLI scheme.
    • From 2017-18, RAC imports have declined by 56 per cent to Rs 18 billion in 2020-21.
    • Our import of RACs has shifted from China to an FTA country like Thailand, where import duty isn’t applicable.
    • A judicious mix of protection (levy of import duty/banning of finished goods) and incentives (PMP, PLI scheme, 100 per cent FDI) has developed local manufacturing, created jobs, and turned a trade surplus.

    Way forward

    • We missed the manufacturing/export bus in the 1980s.
    • We did excel in services like software to become back office to the world. With China+1 becoming a geopolitical imperative, it is an opportune time for us to expand the manufacturing sector and improve our export market share.
    • To achieve our true potential we need close coordination and seamless working between central, state, and local governments, the rule of law, improvements in infrastructure, especially logistics and flexible labour laws.

    Conclusion

    Many of our peers are ahead of us in ease of doing business, but none of them has a large domestic market like us. The automobile and generic pharma sector in the past and the mobile phone/RAC sectors recently have shown that we know the formulae.

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