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Subject: International Relations

  • Northeast India and The Troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan

    Northeast

    Central Idea

    • The third India-Japan Intellectual Dialogue hosted by the Asian Confluence (ASCON), Tripura, was an ideal opportunity to assess the evolving thinking of experts and policymakers. It showed that the current decade may produce path-breaking changes in the northeast, bringing the troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan closer.

    Significant changes in the North East India

    • The region comprising India’s eight northeastern States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim) is undergoing dramatic change.
    • It has overcome several (but not all) security challenges and is now heading toward economic development.
    • Political changes have been helpful. So is the extensive web of linkages with neighbouring Bangladesh. Besides, Japan has emerged as a significant development partner for both India and Bangladesh.

    Japan’s historical ties with the North Eastern region of India

    • Cultural ties: There are deep cultural ties between the North Eastern region of India and Japan, with Buddhism being a common thread that binds the two regions.
    • World War II: The North Eastern region of India played a crucial role in World War II, with the Battle of Imphal and Kohima considered to be turning points in the war. The Japanese army had advanced into the region and fought fiercely against the Allied forces.
    • Post-Independence: After India gained independence, the North Eastern region remained largely isolated from the rest of the country. However, in the 1950s, the Indian government started building roads and infrastructure to connect the region with the rest of the country. Japan also played a role in the region’s development, with its assistance in building the Dimapur-Imphal highway.
    • Economic ties: In recent years, there has been a growing focus on economic ties between the North Eastern region of India and Japan. Japan has been investing in infrastructure projects in the region, such as the Guwahati water supply project and the Northeast Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project.
    • Connectivity: Improved connectivity between the North Eastern region of India and Japan is seen as a key factor in strengthening the historical ties between the two regions. There have been talks of establishing a direct flight between Guwahati and Tokyo to enhance connectivity.

    What is Asian Confluence?

    • The Asian Confluence is a think tank and cultural centre based in Shillong, Meghalaya, India.
    • It was established in 2012 with the aim of promoting and strengthening cultural and economic ties between the Northeastern region of India and the countries of Southeast Asia.
    • The centre seeks to facilitate dialogue and collaboration between academics, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and civil society groups from across the region, with a particular focus on issues related to connectivity, trade, investment, and tourism.
    • The Asian Confluence hosts a variety of events, including conferences, seminars, workshops, and cultural programs, that bring together experts and stakeholders from different fields to discuss and explore opportunities for collaboration and cooperation.
    • In addition to promoting economic and cultural ties, the centre also seeks to foster a sense of community and shared identity among the diverse peoples of the region.

    Opportunities for Northeast India

    • Matarbari Deep Sea Port: The development of the Matarbari Deep Sea Port in Bangladesh, with Japanese assistance, is expected to be a game changer for the region. To be optimally viable, the port will have to cater to the needs of Bangladesh and India’s northeast, serving a population of 220 million.
    • Competitive advantage: The creation of regional industrial value chains and rapid industrialization in sectors where the northeast has a competitive advantage will be crucial to ensure that the new connectivity links are fully utilized and productive.
    • Natural resources and strategic location: The region’s natural resources and strategic location make it an attractive destination for investors in diverse sectors such as agro-processing, man-made fibers, handicrafts, assembly of two-wheelers, mobile phones, and pharmaceuticals.

    What are the Challenges?

    • Insufficient investment: Japan as a single investor in the northeast is unworkable. Indian companies must also invest, and India needs to ease restrictions on the flow of investments from Bangladesh.
    • Security challenges: While the northeastern region has overcome several security challenges, not all of them have been addressed.
    • Infrastructure connectivity: While Bangladesh and India have made progress in restoring pre-1965 infrastructure connectivity, other countries in the region need to reciprocate with similar connectivity initiatives.
    • Environmental concerns: As industrialization and development take place, there is a need to ensure that environmental concerns are addressed and sustainability is prioritized.
    • Lack of attention to BIMSTEC: When issues of regional cooperation and integration are discussed, scant attention seems to be paid to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which is self-defeating.

    What measures should be taken?

    • Limited policy convergence: Policy convergence must be expanded to address challenges in the region.
    • Need for closer linkages: The three governments of Bangladesh, India, and Japan should forge closer linkages of economic cooperation.
    • Investment: Indian companies need to invest in the northeast along with Japanese companies. India should also ease restrictions on the flow of investments from Bangladesh.
    • Infrastructure connectivity: Bangladesh facilitated much connectivity with India and now needs reciprocity from other countries, particularly India, so that it is better connected with other neighbors, including Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar.
    • Need for leadership: The goal of connecting a large part of South Asia with Southeast Asia requires an astute pilot. This leadership can come from the triad of Bangladesh, India, and Japan.

    Conclusion

    • The triad of Bangladesh, India, and Japan (BIJ) can provide astute leadership in connecting a large part of South Asia with Southeast Asia. A BIJ Forum should be launched at the level of Foreign Ministers, a move that will be welcomed in the northeast. The three governments should forge closer linkages of economic cooperation.

    Mains Question

    Q. Highlight the role and the potential of North east India for bringing in the troika of Bangladesh, India and Japan closer?

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  • Macron’s Statement On China and India’s Own Possibilities In Europe

    Macron

    Central idea

    • French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent declaration that France is an ally but not a vassal of the United States and his comments that Paris does not share Washington’s hostility towards China have generated significant reactions in the US and Europe. Beijing’s official media has praised Macron’s strategic autonomy approach towards China, and Russia hopes that France and other European countries will be less politically tied to the US.

    Macron’s comments on China and Taiwan and reactions

    • Outrage in the US and Europe: Macron’s comments that France does not share the US’s hostility towards China and does not see the Taiwan crisis as a threat to Europe have generated outrage in the US and Europe.
    • China praised: Beijing sees Macron’s model of strategic autonomy as a positive example for other nations to follow regarding China.
    • India criticized: India has criticized the remarks, noting that the principle and power are at stake in both Ukraine and Taiwan.

    What is mean by Vassalisation?

    • The term vassalisation refers to a state or country that is in a subordinate or dependent relationship with another, usually more powerful, state or country.
    • It suggests a lack of independence and autonomy in decision-making and an obligation to follow the policies and interests of the more powerful state.

    Important trends highlighted by the debate on the vassalisation of Europe and Russia

    1. Different perspectives on Taiwan and Ukraine
    • Macron’s claim on Taiwan not being a concern to Europe reinforces India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s criticism of Europe’s mindset that their problems are the world’s problems.
    • The Ukraine conflict has debilitating consequences for the world, and a shooting war between the US and China over Taiwan could be more devastating and costly to the international system.
    • Macron’s contradictory approach to the Indo-Pacific is disappointing, and his wavering resolve on China may lead Asian countries to think less of French resolve.
    1. Macron does not represent all of Europe
    • President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has a different take on China than Macron.
    • Central Europeans trust the US more than France or Germany to defend their security interests.
    • Europe is deeply divided on how to address contemporary security challenges, undermining Macron’s ambition to turn Europe into the world’s third superpower.
    • The only common belief in Europe today is the political faith in Beijing’s capacity to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    1. A weaker and divided Europe enhances the prospects for a bipolar world
    • Multipolarity has been an important objective of India’s foreign policy for over three decades.
    • The talk of multipolarity could become academic as the US and China pull way ahead of other powers, get deeper into confrontation, and shape the choices of the rest of the world.
    • The belief that Europe and Russia can act as elements of a multipolar world is becoming increasingly untenable.
    1. India’s possibilities in Europe and Russia
    • Delhi should not turn its back on Europe despite its current predicament with China.
    • Macron’s China push underlines India’s own possibilities in Europe.
    • Western Europe that follows the money in China could do the same in India, providing much strategic benefit to India in its partnerships with Brussels and individual European actors.
    • India is stepping up its engagement with Russia on the calculation that Moscow’s current dependence on Beijing is temporary.
    1. India needs to work more closely with the US and its Asian allies
    • The inability or unwillingness of both Russia and Western Europe to balance China means India needs to work much more closely with the US and its Asian allies to secure a more favourable balance of power in its Indo-Pacific neighbourhood.
    • India’s strategic value will only go up for the US amidst the European reluctance to stand up to China’s hegemonic ambitions.
    • Few countries in Asia face more urgent and daunting challenges from China than India, and few Asian capitals have more political will to stand up to Beijing than Delhi.
    • The reduced standing of Europe and Russia in great power relations is accompanied by Asia’s rise, with emerging strategic opportunities for Japan, India, and South Korea.

    Europe-China relations

    • Europe-China relations have been complex and multi-faceted over the years: On the one hand, China is Europe’s second-largest trading partner, and there is a lot of economic interdependence between the two. On the other hand, there are concerns about human rights violations, lack of market access for European companies in China, and China’s increasing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.
    • Some important developments include
    • The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI): Negotiated in December 2020, the CAI is a landmark investment deal between the EU and China aimed at improving market access for European companies in China and increasing investment flows between the two regions. However, the agreement has been met with criticism from some EU member states and civil society groups, who argue that it does not do enough to address human rights abuses in China.
    • Increasing concern over Chinese human rights abuses: Europe has been increasingly critical of China’s human rights record, particularly in the wake of the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong and the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. The EU has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials involved in human rights abuses, and there is growing support for a boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
    • Growing competition in the Indo-Pacific region: Europe is becoming more engaged in the Indo-Pacific region, which is seen as a key area of strategic competition between China and the US. Some EU member states, such as France and Germany, have developed their own Indo-Pacific strategies and are seeking to deepen security partnerships with countries in the region.
    • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China’s massive infrastructure project, the BRI, has raised concerns in Europe about China’s growing influence in the region. Some EU member states, such as Italy and Greece, have signed on to the initiative, while others have been more cautious.

    Facts for prelims

    Category

    Information
    Location East Asia
    Capital Taipei
    Population 23.58 million (2021)
    Official language Mandarin Chinese, Hokkien, Hakka, and indigenous languages
    Currency New Taiwan dollar
    Form of government Unitary semi-presidential constitutional republic
    Topography Mountainous with fertile plains in the west
    Climate Subtropical

    Conclusion

    • Macron’s comments on China have sparked debates about Europe and Russia’s relationship with China and the US. A weaker and divided Europe enhances the prospects for a bipolar world dominated by the US and China, which makes it important for India needs greater engagement with European geopolitics and to work closely with the US and its Asian allies to secure a more favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Mains Question

    Q. What do you understand by mean vassalisation in terms of international politics? Discuss the latest trends that have emerged from the debate on the vassalisation of Europe derived from French president Macron’s recent comments on China.

  • China’s Mediation Brings Saudi Arabia and Iran to the Table: An Analysis

    China

    Central Idea

    • China’s mediation efforts have resulted in the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is significant in terms of regional stability and the changing dynamics of international diplomacy.

    What is Mediation?

    • Mediation is a deliberate attempt to reconcile differences between two parties, and it plays a significant role in international relations. In this op-ed, we will discuss China’s recent mediation efforts that led to the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    Background

    • Conflicts in GCC: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been facing several tensions and conflicts since 2016, mainly related to Yemen and Syria. However, bilateral efforts have been underway since early 2016 to ease these tensions.
    • Bilateral efforts: Talks were held in Baghdad and during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to China in February 2023. The Emir of Kuwait and the Sultan of Oman initiated steps that were responded to by Iran. All concerned were worried about the attacks on shipping and energy facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates.

    China’s Mediation Efforts

    • Resumption of diplomatic relations: In a joint statement on March 10, 2023, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China announced that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran covering a resumption of diplomatic relations between them and a re-opening of their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months.
    • Terms of the agreement: The agreement affirmed their respect for the sovereignty of states, non-interference in the internal affairs of states, and said the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of both countries shall meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their Ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations.
    • For instance; One agreement and seven achievements: Iranian National Security Adviser Ali Shamkhani lent credibility to the accord. A commentary in an Iranian newspaper on March 11 depicted the event as ‘One agreement and seven achievements’; it listed the latter as
    1. Tehran’s willingness to engage in dialogue;
    2. Failure of the U.S.’s effort to isolate Iran;
    3. Strengthening of the alliance of Islamic Countries;
    4. Failure of Israeli efforts against this agreement;
    5. Failure of U.S. effort to show the Iranian public that it has no choice but to agree to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with America;
    6. Beijing’s successful entry in West Asian relations, and
    7. Failure of dreams of regime change.

    American and Israeli Reactions

    • US; Change in terms of reference in international diplomacy For US:S. reactions, apart from unconcealed surprise, reflected the change in terms of reference in international diplomacy.
    • Israel; a fatal blow to a regional coalition against Iran: Equally surprised was Israel, the other major player in the region, which saw it as a fatal blow to the effort to build a regional coalition against Iran.

    The Indian stand

    • India’s reaction to this development has been restrained: Apart from historical linkages, the region is in India’s proximate neighbourhood and within its security parameters.
    • Trade a priority: It is the principal source of hydrocarbon imports, and increasingly of investments. It is also an important destination for manpower exports apart from being a major trading partner including projects.
    • Policy of avoiding interference in bilateral and regional disputes: The official policy has focused on bilateral relations and avoidance of involvement in bilateral and regional disputes.
    • Refrained from speculative ventures: Given these priorities, India has consciously refrained from speculative ventures in alternate security architectures apart from supporting cooperative security and freedom of waterways and of navigation.

    Conclusion

    • China’s mediation efforts have played a significant role in bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran to the negotiating table. This development is significant in terms of regional stability and the changing dynamics of international diplomacy. India’s response to this development has been restrained, focusing on bilateral relations and avoiding involvement in regional disputes. The region should not be viewed in competition with China, and India should not consider itself a surrogate for those who have been outplayed in power games.

    Mains Question

    Q. Analyze the significance of China’s mediation efforts in bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran to the negotiating table and its impact on international diplomacy. Evaluate India’s response to this development.

  • India signs MoU with World Food Programme for sending wheat to Afghanistan

    India signed an MoU with the World Food Programme (WFP) to send 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan.

    Reason: Utilizing WFP supply chain

    • The MoU signed between India and the World Food Programme (WFP) paves the way for sending 10,000 metric tonnes of wheat for the people of Afghanistan.
    • The WFP has a massive supply chain and logistics infrastructure in Afghanistan that could help in ensuring that the food supply reaches those who need it the most and no one is excluded.
    • The MoU also ensures that the assistance is coordinated and delivered in an effective and efficient manner, and that it reaches the most vulnerable sections of the Afghan population.

    What is World Food Programme (WFP)?

    • The WFP is a humanitarian organization that is part of the United Nations system.
    • It was established in 1961 and has its headquarters in Rome, Italy.
    • The WFP is the world’s largest humanitarian agency focused on combating hunger and promoting food security.

    Scope of Operations

    • The WFP operates in more than 80 countries, delivering food assistance to people in need.
    • WFP programs reach over 97 million people each year, including children, pregnant and nursing women, and people affected by emergencies, such as conflict or natural disasters.
    • It provides a range of food assistance, including in-kind food assistance, cash and voucher-based transfers, and specialized nutritious foods.

    Funding and Support

    • The WFP is funded entirely by voluntary contributions from governments, companies, and individuals.
    • The organization works closely with donors to ensure that funding is used effectively and efficiently, and to ensure that it is directed to the areas and programs where it is needed most.

    Governance and Structure

    • The WFP is governed by an Executive Board, which is composed of 36 member states that are elected to three-year terms.
    • The Executive Board provides oversight and strategic direction to the organization, and approves the WFP’s programs and budgets.
    • The WFP is headed by an Executive Director, who is appointed by the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
    • The organization has more than 17,000 staff worldwide, including professionals in fields such as logistics, nutrition, and food security.

    Impact and Achievements

    • Over the years, the WFP has made significant contributions to addressing hunger and promoting food security worldwide.
    • The organization has responded to numerous emergencies, providing food assistance to millions of people affected by conflict, natural disasters, and other crises.
    • The WFP has also supported programs that help people access the food they need to lead healthy, active lives, and that promote sustainable agriculture and development.
    • The WFP has been recognized for its efforts, receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020 in recognition of its contributions to combatting hunger and promoting peace.

     

     

  • International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program

    Central idea

    • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the US has retained the “Category 1” status for India’s aviation safety oversight following a review.
    • The FAA uses the International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program to determine whether a country’s oversight of its airlines that operate or wish to operate to the US or enter into codeshare partnerships.

    What is the IASA Program?

    • The International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program is conducted by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
    • The program evaluates the safety oversight of civil aviation authorities in countries worldwide.
    • It determines whether a country’s oversight of its airlines that operate or wish to operate to the U.S. or enter into codeshare partnerships with U.S. carriers comply with safety standards established by the UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
    • The IASA program focuses on three broad areas, including personnel licensing, operation of aircraft, and airworthiness of aircraft.
    • Countries are rated as Category 1 if they comply with international safety standards, or Category 2 if they do not comply with international safety standards.
    • The IASA program is conducted over a one-year period, which includes physical audits and a further review.

    India’s commitment to aviation safety

    • The assessment by the ICAO as well as the FAA is a testimony to India’s commitment of having an effective safety oversight for its civil aviation system.
    • In November 2021, the ICAO conducted an audit, and India scored an Effective Implementation (EI) of 85.65%, an improvement from the previous EI of 69.95%.

     

     

  • China’s Renaming Exercise Undermines International Law

    Central Idea

    • China’s recent move to rename 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh and standardise those names on the basis of a map is an exercise of the Chinese perspective of international law, which goes against the international law widely adhered to by most members of the United Nations.

    Historical Basis of China’s Claims

    • China’s claims over disputed territories, such as the South China Sea, are often based on historical records, maps, and cultural relics.
    • China argues that these territories had been its territory since the Song Dynasty and, therefore, should be considered part of its sovereign territory. However, this approach is not recognized under international law and undermines the basis of the international legal system.

    Chinese perspective of international law

    • Jurisdiction rights: The Chinese perspective of international law is based on its strong stress on the principle of sovereignty. According to this view, sovereign states have an inalienable right to exercise jurisdiction over their territories and their people without interference from other states.
    • Historic rights: China combines its vision of sovereignty with the historic right to exercise jurisdiction over those territories or maritime areas as well, which were once ruled by a Chinese dynasty in the mediaeval or ancient era.
    • Undermines international legal system: The historic right approach makes China undermine the basis of the international legal system grounded in the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.

    Contravention of international courts and tribunals

    • Contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals: China’s attempt to rename 11 disputed locations on historical and administrative bases contravenes the decisions of international courts and tribunals.
    • No convincing proofs: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers direct evidence of possession and the actual exercise of sovereignty as more convincing proof of title to a territory than indirect presumption from events in history.
    • Against the principle of uti possidetis juris: China’s renaming exercise goes against the principle of uti possidetis juris, which is the principle that the boundaries of newly independent states should follow those of the previous colonies.
    • Help of cartographic materials: China tries to buttress its territorial and maritime claims with the support of maps, but cartographic materials do not have any legal value by themselves. They constitute extrinsic evidence of varying reliability that might, depending on the circumstances, be used together with other evidence to establish a fact.

    What is the principle of uti possidetis juris?

    • The principle of uti possidetis juris is a Latin phrase that means as you possess under law.
    • It is a principle of international law that was developed in the context of decolonization. The principle holds that newly independent states should inherit the territorial boundaries that existed at the time of their independence.
    • The idea is that the territorial integrity of a new state should be protected and that the boundaries of the state should not be subject to change without the consent of the state.
    • The principle of uti possidetis juris is meant to prevent disputes over territorial boundaries that could lead to instability or conflict.

    Implications of China’s actions

    • China’s actions in Arunachal Pradesh undermine the international legal system based on the sovereign equality of states and the general rules of international law.
    • China’s historic right approach to sovereignty over territories and maritime areas is a cause for concern for other countries with territorial disputes with China.
    • China’s use of maps to support its territorial and maritime claims is not a legally valid argument and undermines the legal basis for resolving territorial disputes.

    Conclusion

    • China’s attempt to rename disputed territories in Arunachal Pradesh goes against established principles of international law and undermines the sovereign equality of states. The use of historical claims and maps to support territorial and maritime claims is not recognized in international law. This renaming exercise is likely to further strain India-China relations and impact regional stability. It is essential to uphold the principles of international law to ensure the independence and stability of new states and prevent challenges to territorial boundaries.

    Mains Question

    Q. What is the principle of uti possidetis juris? How does China’s attempt to rename territories in Arunachal Pradesh contravene the decisions of international courts and tribunals?

  • Russia and China Aim To Build A Post-Western Order

    Central Idea

    • Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order and build a post-Western order. However, the Indian strategic community should not expect the fault lines within the West to be fatal, as history has shown that such dreams have not come to fruition.

    Post-Western Order

    • Building a post-Western order: Russia and China have talked of upending the world order before, with the history of international communism in the 20th century being about building a post-Western order.
    • America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe: While Moscow and Beijing are convinced that they can put the West on the defensive by pooling their strengths, the success of this strategy rests on the Moscow-Beijing axis successfully leveraging America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe.

    Dividing America from Europe

    • The Moscow and Beijing are hoping to divide America from Europe: Russia’s latest version of its foreign policy doctrine singles out the US as the main instigator, organizer, and executor of the aggressive anti-Russian policy of the collective West.
    • China’s diplomatic Europe strategy: China’s love for Europe’s strategic autonomy is equally passionate. However, it is unlikely that there will be a decisive movement on either issue, but both sides see the diplomatic dance as a valuable exercise.

    Sino-European Engagement

    • Europe’s pressure on Russia: Europe wants Xi to put pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine, and Beijing would like Europe to distance itself from the US on its China policy.
    • Europe not ready to busy China’s peace initiative: While Europe is not ready to buy China’s peace initiative on Ukraine, it has convinced itself that Xi is the only leader who can nudge Putin towards peace.

    India’s Perspective

    • The realists in India are aware of the many differences between the US and Europe, but they are also aware that Western strategic unity has endured since World War II.
    • The Russian and Chinese overreach has cemented broad Western unity rather than separating Europe from the US.

    Conclusion

    • While Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order, it is unlikely that they will succeed in building a post-Western order. The fault lines within the West are real, but they are by no means fatal.

  • Finland-NATO-Russia: Search For Ways To Lower The Tensions

    NATO

    Central Idea

    • Finland has become the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its decision to join the alliance should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence. The accession of Finland into NATO is a rational choice that may provide additional security guarantees and help to defend against possible aggression from Russia.

    Historical context of Finland-Russia relations

    • The relationship between Finland and Russia has been a combination of struggle and compromise, dating back nearly 200 years.
    • In 1809, the Russian Tsar Alexander I acquired Finland and made it an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian empire.
    • Between the two world wars, the Finns felt less threatened by Germany than by Russia.

    NATO

    Finland’s decision to join NATO

    • 31st NATO member: Finland has become the 31st member of NATO, triggering possible countermeasures from Russia.
    • Independent choice: The decision to join NATO is seen as an independent choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
    • Security guarantee: Finland’s accession to NATO is a rational choice to receive additional security guarantees from the alliance. Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty binds the members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the alliance.

    Preparations for defense against possible aggression

    • Defence against possible aggression: Even prior to its membership in NATO, Finland had been preparing to defend itself against possible aggression.
    • The Finnish system of conscription has generated sufficient resources for the army, navy, and air force to act effectively in a war situation.

    NATO

    Implications for India and the Arctic region

    • Real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region: Finland has maintained a small but capable armed force that is well-trained and resilient, and its inclusion in NATO adds real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region.
    • High north is commercial attraction: As the Arctic ice cap melts amidst global warming, the high north has become attractive commercially and contested geopolitically.
    • India is an observer of the Arctic Council: India is an observer of the Arctic Council that seeks to promote wide-ranging cooperation in the polar north.
    • China raising profile in the Arctic: The militarisation of the high north appears inevitable as Finland and Sweden turn from neutrals to Western allies and China raises its profile in the Arctic in partnership with Russia.
    • Global governance: This might make global governance of the Arctic region increasingly problematic

    Way ahead: The need for cautious behavior by NATO and Russia

    • Both NATO and Russia should exercise cautious behavior vis-à-vis each other to avoid further escalation of tensions.
    • Finland’s newly elected centre-right government should engage in bilateral dialogue with Russia, trying to understand each other’s security concerns.
    • There should be at least some NATO members who would be willing to rely more on diplomatic tools and lower the temperatures.

    NATO

    Conclusion

    • The decision of Finland to join NATO is seen as a rational choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The accession of Finland into NATO should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence and could potentially persuade an adversary not to initiate a war. NATO and Russia should search for ways to lower the tensions and avoid implementing measures and imposing countermeasures.

    Mains Question

    Q. Finland has become the 31st member of NATO. In this light discuss the rationale behind this decision its implications.

  • India-U.S. relationship: Critical Next Six Months

    India-U.S.

    Central Idea

    • The India-U.S. relationship will be crucial in the next six months with engagements set to happen between the two countries on various forums like the G20, Quad, and I2U2.

    Divergence and Convergence

    • The appointment of Eric Garcetti as the U.S. Ambassador to India signals the potential for greater partnership, but there are also differences to be overcome.
    1. The U.S. may want India to change its stance on the Ukraine crisis.
    2. India may want a stronger position against China.
    • However, the two countries share strong areas of convergence such as
    1. The India-U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology and
    2. The Indo-Pacific partnership aimed at promoting security, economic growth, and connectivity in the region.

    India-U.S.

    What is I2U2?

    • In July 2022, India, Israel, the United States (US), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in a hybrid summit announced the establishment of a new minilateral grouping called the I2U2.
    • The four countries envision their alliance as an ad-hoc, informal, issue-specific and geoeconomic initiative.

    Realignment of U.S. Supply Chains

    • Disrupted supply chains: In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying supply chains away from China due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and concerns about over-reliance on a single country.
    • India is emerging as attractive destination: India’s growing consumer market makes it an attractive destination for U.S. businesses looking to expand their customer base.

    India-U.S.

    Ups and Downs in India-U.S. relationship

    • The India-U.S. relationship has had its ups and downs over time, with key moments such as the nuclear deal, liberalisation of markets, and the outsourcing of Indian techies for U.S. companies.
    • The U.S. has also played an important role in making India an IT superpower.
    • The two countries are also partners in combating climate change and aligned on the importance of space technology.

    Trust Deficit

    • In the past, there has been a trust deficit between India and the U.S., with Indians feeling that the U.S. has not always supported India and has instead supported Pakistan.
    • The U.S. has flagged issues related to terrorism, human rights, and democracy in India. However, the two countries can become stronger together by building on their strategic partnership.

    Conclusion

    • The next six months will be critical for India-U.S. ties, with both countries looking to enhance collaboration and partnership. While there are differences in opinions to be addressed, the two countries also share strong areas of convergence that can be leveraged to strengthen their strategic partnership.

    Mains Question

    Q. What is I2U2 initiative? Evaluate how does it fit into the broader context of the India- US relationship?

  • What do OPEC+ production cuts mean for India?

    opec

    OPEC+ countries announced a voluntary oil production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, which could impact the Indian economy, which depends on oil imports for 85% of its energy needs.

    Recent trend in crude oil prices

    • Crude oil prices crashed in April 2020 due to the pandemic and recovered when economies opened up.
    • Subsequently, prices rocketed in early 2022, but then the global economy slowed and a recession in advanced markets looms large.
    • This has resulted in declining demand for crude oil from major economies, causing oil prices to start falling again.

    What is OPEC+?

    • OPEC+ is a group of oil-producing countries that cooperate to manage the global supply and prices of crude oil.
    • It is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group of non-OPEC countries, including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, and others.
    • OPEC was founded in 1960 by five countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
    • The organization’s primary objective was to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member countries to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers and a regular supply for consumers.

    Key functions of OPEC+

    • Oil Production Regulation: OPEC+ regulates oil production of its member countries to ensure that oil prices remain stable and there is no oversupply or undersupply of oil in the market.
    • Price Control: It aims to control the price of crude oil by regulating the supply of oil to the market.
    • Market Monitoring: OPEC+ closely monitors the global oil market to understand the demand and supply dynamics of oil.
    • Coordination: OPEC+ member countries work together to make decisions on oil production levels, pricing policies, and other matters that impact the global oil market.
    • Research and Development: OPEC+ invests in research and development to explore new technologies and methods that can help member countries to produce oil more efficiently and sustainably.

    Reason behind recent production cuts

    • OPEC+ countries aim to support market stability by reducing oil supplies.
    • The recent production cuts, totalling 3.7% of global demand, will raise crude oil prices per barrel and help cover up the losses producer countries faced after prices crashed.

    Impact on Indian economy

    • India is the third-largest oil consumer and imports 85% of its total crude oil requirement.
    • The cut could raise crude by $10/barrel, increasing import bill and worsening the current account deficit by around 0.4% of GDP.
    • This will impact foreign exchange reserves and result in the depreciation of the rupee, which in turn can increase imported inflation.

    Impact on common people

    • If the rise in crude oil import bill is passed on to the public, it may lead to cost-push inflation as every economic activity gets affected by oil price movement.
    • On the flip side, state-controlled oil marketing companies may be stopped from passing on the increased burden to consumers, further worsening the financial balance of the oil public sector units.

    Alternatives for India

    • India can turn to Russia for more supplies of cheap crude, but of late there has been a small decline in Russia’s share in India’s oil imports.
    • As a long-term strategy, the government should focus on alternative energy sources and building better roads.
    • The government should work on bringing petroleum products within the goods and services tax, and promote energy-efficient use of vehicles or an eco-driving culture.