Subject: International Relations

34 years of Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

afghanistan

Central idea: The article discusses the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan 34 years ago, which marked the end of a nearly decade-long occupation.

Fun fact:

“Charlie Wilson’s War” is a 2007 American biographical comedy-drama based on the true story of Charlie Wilson, a former United States Congressman who played a key role in supporting the Afghan mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War of the 1980s.

The film is notable for its depiction of the complex and often murky world of international politics and covert operations. It also highlights the unintended consequences of the US’s support for the Afghan mujahideen, which included the rise of the Taliban and the emergence of al-Qaeda.

Why did the Soviet Union invade Afghanistan?

Establish influence: The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 in an attempt to support a friendly communist government (Saur Revolution) that had seized power in Kabul earlier that year.
Prevent radicalization of its southern states: The Soviet Union saw the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to extend its influence in the region and to protect its southern borders from Islamic fundamentalism.
Countering US influence in Pakistan: The Soviet Union was concerned about the possibility of the United States gaining a foothold in Afghanistan and potentially using it as a base for attacks against the Soviet Union.

What led to its withdrawal?

US-powered rebel groups: The Soviet Union’s occupation of Afghanistan faced fierce opposition from Afghan rebel groups, who were supported by the US and trained by Pakistan hoping that the jihadis would wage war on India and liberate Kashmir.
Huge casualties: The conflict turned into a protracted and costly war that lasted almost a decade, with the Soviet Union suffering significant casualties and eventually withdrawing its troops in 1989.
Fall of USSR: After the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the Afghan government, which had been propped up by the Soviet Union, soon collapsed, and the country plunged into a civil war.

Aftermath: Radicalization of Afghanistan

Rise of Taliban: Various factions vied for power, and the Taliban emerged as a dominant force. The Taliban, a hardline Islamist group, took control of the country in 1996 and imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law. This rule was marked by brutality and oppression, including the widespread use of public executions, amputations, and other forms of punishment.
Safe havens for terror: The group provided a safe haven for Al Qaeda, which was responsible for the 9/11 attacks in the US.

How US came to Afghanistan?

In response to the 9/11 attacks, the United States led a coalition of forces in an invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
The Taliban was quickly ousted from power, and a new ‘democratic’ government was established.
However, the conflict continued, and the Taliban gradually regained strength, launching attacks on government forces and civilian targets.

Why did the US left Afghanistan?

In August 2021, the US completed its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, marking the end of a 20-year-long military presence in the country. It decided to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan for several reasons-

Massive cost: The conflict had lasted for two decades, and the United States had spent over $2 trillion on the war effort.
Huge casualties: The number of lives lost by the United States in the war in Afghanistan is a matter of debate, but it is estimated that more than 2,400 US military personnel were killed in the conflict.
Mission accomplished: The US had achieved many of its initial objectives in Afghanistan, such as dismantling Al Qaeda’s infrastructure and removing the Taliban from power.
Foreign policy shift: The withdrawal of US forces was part of a broader shift in US foreign policy towards a focus on great power competition, particularly with China and Russia.
America first policy: The US had also sought to end what it saw as “endless wars” in the Middle East and refocus its attention on domestic priorities.

Assessing Taliban rule now

Since taking control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban has taken a number of steps to consolidate its power and impose its ideology on the Afghan people. Some of the ways in which the Taliban has been accused of ruining Afghanistan are:

Imposing Sharia: The Taliban is an Islamist extremist group that seeks to impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law on the country.
Human rights abuses: The Taliban has been accused of committing widespread human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, summary executions, and forced disappearances.
Oppression of women: The group has also targeted women and girls, imposing strict dress codes and limiting their access to education and employment.
Restrictions on free speech and the press: The Taliban has cracked down on freedom of expression and the press, shutting down independent media outlets and arresting journalists and activists who oppose their rule.
Economic and humanitarian crisis: The Taliban’s takeover has caused an economic and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with many people struggling to access basic necessities like food and medical care.
International isolation: Many countries have suspended aid and diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, and the UN has expressed concern about the group’s human rights record.

How is India helping the Afghan people cause?

India has been actively involved in providing humanitarian aid to the people of Afghanistan, especially in the wake of the Taliban’s return to power. Some of the ways in which India is helping the Afghan people are:

Providing food and medical aid: India has sent several consignments of food and medical aid to Afghanistan, including wheat, medicines, and other essential supplies. The aid is being delivered through various channels, including the Afghan Red Crescent Society and the UN.
Supporting refugees: India has a long history of providing support to Afghan refugees, and the government has pledged to continue this tradition in the wake of the Taliban’s return to power. India has said it will grant visas to Afghan nationals who are seeking refuge, and the government has also set up a new portal to streamline the visa application process.
Diplomatic efforts: India has been working to build international support for the Afghan people, and the government has been in touch with various countries and international organizations to coordinate relief efforts. India has also called for an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that respects the rights of all Afghan citizens, including women and minorities.

Conclusion

The situation in Afghanistan is complex and challenging, and there are no easy solutions.

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February 17, 2023

Japan-India Combat Exercise and the Chinese Concerns
Central Idea
- Japan and India have launched their second Joint Air Defense Exercise called “Veer Guardian 2023” to conduct multi-domain air combat operations in a complex environment and deepen their mutual operational understanding while fostering closer defence cooperation. This increased military collaboration between Japan and India under US guidance in the Indo-Pacific is causing subdued panic among Chinese commentators.
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All you need to know about Veer Guardian 2023
- Bilateral exercise: Veer Guardian is a bilateral air exercise between the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF).
- Fourth edition: The exercise took place at Hyakuri Air Base, near Tokyo in Japan in January 2023 and was the fourth edition of the Veer Guardian series.
- Participation: The IAF participated with six Sukhoi Su-30MKI multirole fighters and two C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft, while the JASDF deployed six Mitsubishi F-2 fighters.
- The primary objectives of the exercise: To enhance interoperability between the two air forces, exchange best practices and operational experiences, and improve understanding of each other’s tactics and procedures.
- Drills: The exercise included various aerial manoeuvres, air combat scenarios, air-to-ground strikes, and close air support operations. The Indian side also participated in a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) drill, which involved the C-17 aircraft dropping relief supplies to a simulated disaster-hit area.
Japan-India collusion against China
- Japan’s Pursuit of Allies: Japan has been actively seeking allies to counterbalance China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region. It has formed alliances with several countries, including the US, Germany, the UK, Australia, and India.
- Japan-India Security Cooperation: Japan and India have a reciprocal access agreement in place since 2020. They have regularly been conducting joint military exercises in naval, ground and air domains.
- Opportunities for India to gain experience: India, having faced a three-year-long border standoff with China, sees the joint air exercises with Japan as a rare opportunity to gain experience over the East China Sea. Therefore, the joint drill with Japan can become a stepping stone to future quadrilateral air exercises.
Why China is concerned about the increasing collaboration between Japan and India?
- Japan’s National Security Strategy: The NSS sees China as Japan’s biggest challenge ever seen and recommends a counter-strike capability by 2027.
- Japan’s strategy to counter China’s increasing influence in the Indo-Pacific region: The Chinese government believes that Japan is exaggerating the China Threat Theory as evidenced by Japan’s recently published National Security Strategy (NSS).
- Limiting Strategic manoeuvrability: A stronger India poses a major threat to China’s west while Japan in the east remains a major threat. As both India and Japan are significant players in the Asia-Pacific region, their collaboration could potentially limit China’s strategic maneuverability.
- Balance of power: Together, India and Japan can bring a paradigmatic shift in the region’s security. The increasing collaboration with India is one of the ways in which Japan is seeking to balance its power with China.
- Concern for national security: Moreover, China sees Japan’s recent efforts to court allies and introduce NATO forces in the Asia-Pacific region as potentially leading to a resurgence of Japan’s militarist past, which is a concern for China’s national security.
Conclusion
- In sum, the Japan-India joint air drill will impart crucial combat experience to both air forces. It will also further Japan’s approach to involve India deeper in the East Asian security architecture. However, for China, the air drill comes as an ominous portent for the future.
Mains question

Q. What is the significance of the Veer Guardian 2023 joint air exercise between India and Japan, and why is China concerned about the increasing collaboration between these two countries? Discuss

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February 15, 2023
Spy Balloon: Another Grey-zone warfare tactics
Central Idea
- The recent incident of a Chinese ‘spy balloon’ sighted 60,000 feet over the skies of Montana in the United States (US) which was finally shot down by a missile from a US F22 fighter jet off the coast of South Carolina has left far too many questions unanswered.
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What the debris indicates?
- While some of the clues emerging from the balloon’s debris have unravelled some information, the incident itself is a reminiscent of Cold War era tactics and is a pointer towards archetypical grey-zone activities which could characterise China’s standard operating procedure in the future.
US claims
- The US State Department’s confident claims that the balloon “was clearly for intelligence surveillance and was likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications” point to an incoming precipitation of crisis in US-China relations.
Understanding Chinese perceptions
- Spy balloon episode gives us a peek into the worldview of chinese strategists: There is a strategic awareness in Beijing that even as the war has raged on in Europe for over a year, the US may be turning its attention to the Western Pacific region where it is rebuilding its naval power, resuscitating alliances, and consolidating its position as the centre of its hub-and-spokes network in the Pacific theatre.
- US-Philippines defence cooperation: There has been the renewal of the US-Philippines defence cooperation, which bolsters America’s defences with respect to Taiwan.
- Japan’s return to geopolitics is another basis for such perceptions within China: Japanese PM Fumio Kishida’s warning that East Asia could suffer the same fate as Ukraine has led the nation to radically alter its security policy. On one hand, Japan is building domestic capabilities like incrementally increasing spending on defence, and planning for a missile arsenal to deter China, it is also expanding defence cooperation with the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Chinese apprehensions about Indo pacific concept: Chinese strategists have red-flagged the Indo-Pacific concept, likening America’s approach of developing ties with China’s neighbours with an aim of creating regional blocs like NATO to contain China.
- Japan’s new military posturing is being viewed with trepidation in Beijing:
1. First, it is believed that Japan will deploy missiles in bases closer to Taiwan.
2. Second, there is a belief that Japan’s increasing defence capabilities in the region combined with America’s growing military power in the Western Pacific may exceed China’s comprehensive national power eventually.
Grey-zone warfare: A key feature of China’s aggression and expansionism
- Reclaiming reefs in south China sea: The first step in its expansion into the South China Sea was reclaiming reefs and then building military infrastructure there.
- Villages near Indian border: Similarly, China has constructed ‘xiaokang’ villages near the Indian border in a bid to bolster its territorial claims.
- Spy balloon episode is one of the grey zone tactics: The spy balloon episode marks a major inflection point in this approach, since the US, for the first time, has been at the receiving end of China’s grey-zone tactics.
Conclusion
- The United States uses a variety of tools, from satellites to intercepted communications to surveil China. It’s not unreasonable that China would attempt to do the same to the United States. In between these two views is the realisation that the dragon’s hidden grey-zone tactics have reached the continental US more brazenly than ever before.
Mains question

Q. In the backdrop of Chinese spy balloons episode, Discuss the Chinese perceptions that drive grey-zone activities, and how these tactics could impact the global order in the future?

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February 14, 2023
Central agencies gear up for FATF mutual evaluations
Central agencies, including the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), have begun preparations for the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) mutual evaluation process of India.

What is the news?
- India is due to undergo the mutual evaluation process in the second half of 2022, which will assess the country’s compliance with international anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing standards.
What is FATF?
- FATF is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering.
- The FATF Secretariat is housed at the OECD headquarters in Paris.
- It holds three Plenary meetings in the course of each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.
- As of 2019, FATF consisted of 37 member jurisdictions.
India’s say in FATF
- India became an Observer at FATF in 2006. Since then, it had been working towards full-fledged membership.
- On June 25, 2010, India was taken in as the 34th country member of FATF.
What is FATF’s mutual evaluation process?
- The mutual evaluation process is a review of a country’s legal and institutional framework to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, as well as its implementation of measures to prevent these crimes.
- During the process, the FATF assesses a country’s compliance with its 40 recommendations on anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing, as well as the level of effectiveness of these measures in practice.
- The outcome of the mutual evaluation is a report that highlights a country’s strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement, and assigns a rating based on the level of compliance and effectiveness.
How will FATF evaluate India?
- The FATF’s evaluation will cover a wide range of areas, including India’s legal framework, regulatory system, law enforcement efforts, and international cooperation.
- Central agencies have been working to ensure that India’s anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing laws are in line with international standards, and that their implementation is effective.
Significance of this evaluation
- The outcome of the evaluation will be a report that highlights India’s strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement, and assigns a rating based on the level of compliance and effectiveness.
- The mutual evaluation process is an important tool in the global fight against money laundering and terrorist financing.
- Its outcome can have significant implications for a country’s access to international financial markets and its reputation in the global community.
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February 14, 2023
India- France: Expanding strategic partnership
Context
- The celebration by India and France of 25 years of their strategic partnership (January 26) presents an important opportunity for both to introspect on their relations. Signed in 1998, the time-tested strategic partnership has continued to gain momentum over shared values and aspirations of peace, stability and, most importantly, their desire for strategic autonomy. There are no real substantive disagreements between the two nations.
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France a largest foreign investor in India
- France has emerged as a key trading partner of India with annual trade of $12.42 billion in 2021-22.
- It is the 11th largest foreign investor in India with a cumulative investment of $10.31 billion from April 2000 to June 2022, which represents 1.70% of the total foreign direct investment inflows into India.
France a key defence trading partner of India
- Second largest defence supplier in 2017-2021: France has emerged as a key defence partner for India, becoming the second largest defence supplier in 2017- 2021. France has emerged as a major strategic partner for India with crucial defence deals and increased military to military engagement.
- For example: A key example of this is the inducting of the French Scorpene conventional submarines, being built in India under technology transfer agreement of 2005, and the Indian Air Force having received 36 Rafale fighter jets.
- Joint venture for aircraft manufacturing: The Tata group has also tied up with Airbus to manufacture C-295 tactical transport aircraft in Vadodara, Gujarat. This line is expected to be expanded into other civilian and military aircraft manufacturing in a joint venture with France.
- Regular joint exercises: These relations are further fortified with the robust network of military dialogues and regularly held joint exercises Varuna (navy), Garuda (air force), and Shakti (army).
- France is a willing partner for India: The importance of the defence partnership was further underscored in the recent statement by the French Ambassador to India, Emmanuel Lenain that France is a willing partner for India as it builds its national industrial base for the defence industry and for critical strategic defence projects.
Maritime ties
- Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region: India and France are resident powers of the Indian Ocean and in the Indo-Pacific. The importance of the Indian Ocean Region was visible during the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to New Delhi in 2018 when the leadership of both countries welcomed the Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region which presented a blueprint for a strengthening of ties.
- Like-minded partners: In operational terms, Franco-Indian joint patrolling in the Indian Ocean signals New Delhi’s intent to engage with like-minded partners in expanding its footprint in the Indian Ocean.
- Common vision for open Indo-Pacific: Maritime security has further gained momentum as both countries have articulated their common vision for a free, fair and open Indo-Pacific. Both countries seeks to provide comprehensive solutions for maritime security, regional cooperation, climate change adaptation.
- Common concerns over China’s aggressive behaviour: Both countries share concerns over the rise of China and its aggressive behaviour, regionally and globally, and have committed to working together to ensure that there is no imbalance in the Indo-Pacific
- Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund: India and France in September 2022 agreed to set up an Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund that will support sustainable innovative solutions for countries in the region. The two partners have formed a trilateral grouping with the United Arab Emirates to ensure maritime domain awareness and security from the east coast of Africa to the far Pacific.
Other areas of cooperation
- Nuclear cooperation: France was among the first countries with which India signed a civil nuclear deal. Paris also played a critical role in limiting India’s isolation in the non-proliferation order after the 1998 nuclear tests.
- Support for India’s bid for permanent membership of UNSC: In a sign of expanding cooperation, France supports India’s bid for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council as well as its entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
- India supported France in the Paris Agreement: An area of importance for both is climate change, where India has supported France in the Paris Agreement expressing its strong commitment towards mitigating climate change impact. New Delhi and Paris, as part of their joint efforts on climate change, launched the International Solar Alliance in 2015.
- Deepening cooperation in complex geological order: As the complexities in the international geopolitical order have emerged, both countries have worked towards a deepening and broadening of their cooperation.
Way ahead
- India’s partnership with France is built on common values and goals.
- Both have underlined the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy with a shared understanding of global risks in many domains.
- There is a high-level India-France political dialogue that is ongoing in defence, maritime, counterterrorism and the Indo-Pacific.
- They are now forging ahead with cooperation in issues such as digitisation, cyber, green energy, a blue economy, ocean sciences, and space.
Conclusion
- India and France understand each other’s interests and dependencies, be it in relation to China or Russia. In the marking of a long strategic partnership, a common interest in enhancing strategic autonomy and improving resilience, there is much ground ahead for further collaboration.
Mains question

Q. India’s partnership with France is built on common values and goals. In recent times, France has emerged as a key defence trading partner of India. Discuss.

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February 10, 2023
US bombed Nord Stream Gas Pipeline
An American investigative journalist has claimed that the September 2022 bombing of the undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines was carried out by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

What is Nord Stream Pipeline?

(1) Nord Stream 1:
- Nord Stream 1 is the biggest pipeline transporting natural gas between Russia and Europe via Germany.
- It is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
- Nord Stream 1 is a 1,224 km underwater gas pipeline that runs from Vyborg in northwest Russia to Lubmin in northeastern Germany via the Baltic Sea.
(2) Nord Stream 2:
- Russian threats to choke this gas supply to Europe present an economic threat to Germany.
- To expand options and double the supply from Russia, Germany decided to build Nord Stream 2.
- The construction of the $11 billion-worth Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021 but never began commercial operations.
Why the Nord Stream pipeline is so much in news?
- For Germany: Energy prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, are among the lowest in the continent because of the cheap gas supplies via Nord Stream 1. This also makes German manufactured goods more competitive in the international market.
- For European Union: In 2021, Russia supplied nearly 40 per cent of the EU’s natural gas needs through this pipeline. The flows through Nord Stream play a vital role in filling up the national storage tanks of EU. It is crucial to provide the required heating in the upcoming winter.
- For Russia: Russia is using the supplies via the crucial pipeline as a bargain to navigate its economy through sanctions from the western countries.
What is the current status of Nord Stream Pipeline?
- Nord stream pipeline is the largest single supply route for Russian gas to Europe. The Russian state owned gas company Gazprom has a majority ownership in the pipeline.
- While it was running at just 20% of its capacity since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, the company, in early September fully cut gas flows from the pipeline on the pretext of maintenance.
- According to Bloomberg, while 40% of Europe’s pipeline gas came from Russia before Russia Ukraine the war, the number now stands at just 9%.
- Even though both pipelines were not running commercially, they had millions of cubic metres of gas stored in them.
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February 10, 2023
Indus Water Treaty: A Case of Hydropolitics
Context
- Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) made it the headlines recently. As India issued a notification to Pakistan for modification to the treaty, speculations are rife that the treaty is showing signs of inefficacy and that cracks are visible on the sole bridge between the two nuclear neighbours. On the other hand, for many in the hydro-diplomacy community, the IWT remain a stellar example for asserting that nations can cooperate for managing their shared rivers even with mutual mistrust and hostile political relations.
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What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?
- The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
- According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three eastern rivers of India the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India.
- The control over the water flowing in three western rivers of India the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan
The present developments
- Intergovernmental negotiations to rectify material breach of the treaty: India issued a notice to Pakistan on 25th January 2023 through its commissioner to the bilateral Permanent Indus Commission suggesting that Pakistan should enter intergovernmental negotiations within 90 days to rectify the material breach of the treaty under Article 12(3) of IWT.
- Government-to-government negotiation before accepting the involvement of a neutral expert: India defended its move by stating that it was adhering to the provision under the treaty for a graded mechanism for handling an issue of concern as it interpreted it. Therefore, it asked for a government-to-government negotiation before accepting the involvement of a neutral expert and finally taking it to a court of arbitration.
Why such move?
- Pakistan initially sought a neutral expert and then backtracked: In India, the perceived root cause for this present move is that Pakistan initially sought a neutral expert to examine the technical objections that it had raised on India’s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydropower projects but then backtracked and asked for adjudication through a court of arbitration.
- Despite India’s efforts Pakistan refused to negotiate: Despite repeated efforts by India to negotiate at consecutive meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission, Pakistan refused to budge.
- Pakistan has always preferred the route of arbitration: This is of consequence since Pakistan has always preferred the route of arbitration rather than a graded approach in the past with the involvement of a neutral expert before submitting to arbitration.
- Pakistan’s repeated stance of seeking arbitration is prejudicial and pernicious: Indian strategic experts have called Pakistan’s repeated stance of seeking arbitration as prejudicial and pernicious while accusing the World Bank that it has allowed Pakistan to run riot in the last few years.
The role of World Bank?
- Brokered by WB: The long-standing Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a first-of-its-kind arrangement that was brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan for sharing the waters of the Indus system,
- Signatory to the treaty to maintain ambivalence: The World Bank, as a signatory to the treaty, has maintained ambivalence and has yielded to both demands by appointing a neutral expert and a chairman for the court of arbitration.
- Legal risk in duality of discussing and resolving: This has created a particularly confounding situation due to the initiation of two mutually-exclusive tracks for discussing and resolving the thorny issues. The Bank also recognised the practical and legal risks that this duality poses.
Mistrust and mismanagement
- IWT concerns linked with National security and sovereignty: In the last two decades, both governments have raked up their concerns with the IWT, often coupling the Indus waters with national security and sovereignty with concerns emerging from the highest levels of governments at times.
- Pakistan’s accusation: Pakistani officials and ministers on their part have issued statements accusing India of creating water woes in Pakistan by allowing sudden releases of water without prior notification as was the case in 2019.
- Pakistan has also been apprehensive about two projects by India: The Baglihar and Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (HEP), accusing India of acquiring the power to affect the timing and flow of water into Pakistan on rivers that belong to it under the provisions of IWT.
- Misplaced developmental priorities of Pakistan: The politicisation of the IWT is systematic and has been occurring in a synchronised way, especially in Pakistan due to their misplaced developmental priorities.
- Lack of ecosystems approach
Conditions that underlie any successful transboundary water negotiation process
1. Parties actively recognise their interdependencies;
2. Parties agree to explore competing and often conflicting values and interests and invent creative options for mutual gains; and
3. Parties agree to create mechanisms to monitor the implementation of the agreement and adapt the agreement to address new issues as they emerge.
Climate change is often neglected in politicization of the water issues
- The newer challenges of water governance are emerging. Water cannot be looked at as a stock of resource to be stored for human convenience, and released as per human will.
- Today, whether it is in the Ganges or in the Indus delta regions, there is hardly any acknowledgement that upstream constructions and climate change are wreaking havoc on delta livelihoods.
- Pakistan is so embroiled in the politics of water that they have become oblivious that they are losing a living heritage, the Palla fish The decline in catch is affecting the livelihoods of the fishing community.
- Moreover, higher glacial melt due to global warming around the headwaters in the Himalayas is slated to increase flow in the short run but will be a threat to water security in the long run due to scarcities.
- Therefore, all these bigger climatic threats and the threats created by the dam structures that can arrest the sediments and can cause upstream floods should be of bigger concern than mere politicisation of the water issues.
Conclusion
- On the whole, the lack of trust between nations has marred the hydropolitics of the Indus. The priority should have been settling disputes amicably by drawing strength and confidence from the past and preparing for an uncertain precipitation regime of the future due to climate change. The concerns of a much-needed integrated basin governance approach for the Indus must not be overshadowed by politics of mistrust and hatred.
February 9, 2023
Chinese balloon over the US and India as a Peacemaker
Context
- On 1 February, a high-altitude balloon of Chinese origin was spotted over the US state of Montana, which also houses one of the country’s three active nuclear missile silos. on 4 February, US forces shot down the balloon over the country’s South Carolina coast and are now proceeding to collect some of the debris.
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Balloons for surveillance
- Balloons could prove much cheaper and loiter for extended periods, providing continuous surveillance over targets, unlike satellites based on orbital motion.
How The US responded?
- Initial assessment: The US government officially described it as a surveillance balloon with no immediate military or physical threat but was quick to go back on its initial assessment.
- Incident as a part of Chinese larger troubling pattern: An American view describes the Chinese balloon incident as part of a larger, more troubling pattern.
- China claims as it was civilian airship and unintentionally flown: Despite Chinese claims that the balloon was a harmless civilian airship that had unintentionally flown into US airspace, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled his much-anticipated diplomatic visit to Beijing.
- Issue is a matter of violation of sovereignty: The US has said that the balloon issue is a matter of violation of sovereignty, and, as of 4 February, there are reports of another balloon being spotted over South America that China has admitted is also theirs.
Similar experiments
- US utilising high-altitude balloons: Not just China, the US has also experimented with utilising high-altitude balloons in space for a long time. In July 2022, NASA tested an aerial robotic balloon that would work in tandem with an orbiter to carry out scientific measurements of Venus.
- UK demonstrated in 2022: In August 2022, the UK selected an American company to demonstrate an uncrewed platform for stratospheric communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR). The need was for manoeuvrable, long-duration missions capable of locating targets anywhere on earth.
Global geopolitical struggle
- Default mode but with different players: The event if viewed from a historical perspective, the world is back to its default mode, only this time, it has a different set of actors.
- It involves various forms of power, primarily shaped by technology: Notably, there exist also nuclear weapons in the hands of nine powers, unlike during the Cold War era, when the number was confined to five.
- Economic and technological integration is much greater than ever before: Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, attempts at desegregating economic and technological fields have not just continued but also gained momentum.
- Camps led by the US and China: Global cooperation is in short supply and is being morphed into a coalition-building exercise ensconced in primarily two camps led by the US and China.
India’s posture in a polarized world
- Benefited from lower cost supplies from China and Russia: Economically, it has maintained trade with China and benefited from lower-cost energy supplies from Russia.
- India’s tilt towards west: After China’s aggression on the northern borders, India has tilted to the West, especially in the maritime and technological arenas.
- Increasingly polarised world challenging India’s foreign policy: But as global tensions grow and confrontations increase, India could find itself under pressure to take sides even when its interests are not under contention. Therefore, there is a need to articulate a foreign policy paper on India’s alignment posture in a world that is becoming increasingly polarised.
- This policy must foster partnerships based on context and not on blocs: India could join hands with the US and its allies in seeking an open and rules-based Indo-Pacific order. It could even partner with China on climate change if there is a congruence of interests.
- Challenge is to avoid being dragged in war: In grand strategic terms, India’s challenge is to avoid being dragged into a World War that must be considered a growing possibility.
India as peacemaker
- Exploring the role of a peace broker
1. What could be at the back of the Indian strategic mind is to play the role of a peace broker and explore every possibility to make it count.
2. This is important because the state of relations between the US and China does not seem to have many prospects for a return to dialogue that can facilitate consensus on bilateral, multilateral and global issues.
3. It is a possibility reflected in the inability of the United Nations to intervene, as the major parties involved are themselves in contention for the position of the stronger superpower.
- India may be getting into a position to make a peacebuilding attempt:
1. A report by a US-based business intelligence consulting firm corroborates this asserts that India may be getting into a position to make a peacebuilding attempt
2. According to this survey, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the world’s most popular global leaders. With a 78 per cent approval rating, Modi is far ahead of other contenders.
Conclusion
- It is high time that Indian strategists explore the feasibility of making India a peacemaker. It is a difficult and challenging task that may seem impossible. But there is no reason not to try, as the Prime Minister and the posture of the nation has both internal and external popularity on its side.
February 7, 2023
Two years of Myanmar Coup and Concerns for India
It is exactly two years since the Myanmar army seized power.

Myanmar Coup: A quick recap
- A coup in Myanmar began on the morning of 1 February 2021, when democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, were deposed by the Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s military.
- The coup occurred the day before the Parliament of Myanmar was due to swear in the members elected at the 2020 election, thereby preventing this from occurring.
- Pivot leader Aung San Suu Kyi was detained, along with ministers, their deputies, and members of Parliament.
India’s continuing policy tightrope in Myanmar
- For some three decades, India has pursued a ‘Dual-Track Policy’ which essentially means doing business with the junta.
- India shares a 1,600 km border with Myanmar along four NE states.
- It has a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal, the failure of the Myanmar state presents a foreign policy dilemma that it is struggling to resolve.
- It has ruled over Myanmar for all but five years since 1990, with tea and sympathy for the pro-democracy forces.
Why in news now?

Ans. Pro-democracy armed rebellion within
- Hundreds of armed pro-democracy civilian resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces) are fighting the junta and turning swathes of the country into no-go areas for the army.
- In addition some among the two dozen ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have been fighting the Myanmar state for autonomy for the last seven decades, have joined hands with the PDFs.
India’s concerns
- Chinese inroads: Over the last two decades, as China with its deep pockets emerged as a rival in the region, engaging with the junta was also seen as a way to retain Indian influence in Myanmar.
- No democratic restoration: Delhi had to calibrate this engagement during the “democratic transition” of the last decade and rebalance the dual track.
- Narrowed interests: These are becoming apparent, even going by India’s narrowly defined national interests: border security management, and restricting China in Myanmar.
- Limitations to strategy: India has limited to its old template of engagement— doing business with the military regime, encouraging it restore democracy, and offering sympathy to democratic forces.
Recent success: Completion of Sittwe Port
- In the first week of January, Sittwe port, developed by India as part of the Kaladan project, was ready for operation.
- It is set to be inaugurated soon.
Five ways in which India’s calculations have been upset
- Bluff over connectivity: While maritime trade was one objective, the primary objective of this project, to provide alternate access to India’s landlocked north-east states, now seems like a bridge too far.
- Huge refugee influx: Mizoram is hosting tens of thousands of refugees from the adjoining Chin state in Myanmar. Refugees have come into other Northeastern states, though in fewer numbers.
- Clouds of terrorism: More dangerously, the recent bombing by the Myanmar Air Force of a Chin militia headquarters on the border with Mizoram, with shrapnel hitting the Indian side during this operation, triggered panic in the area.
- Narcotics smuggling: Another potential cross-border spillovers is contained in the latest report of the UN Office for Drugs and Crime on Myanmar (Myanmar Opium Survey).
- Supporting insurgents in India: Myanmar junta has recruited Indian insurgent group (IIGs) in regions adjoining Manipur and Nagaland to fight against the local PDFs and other groups.
- Worsening of Rohingya crisis: The military cannot resolve the Rohingya crisis, another regional destabilizer.
Way forward for India
- Championing this cause in G20: India has projected its year-long presidency of the G20 as an opportunity to project the voice of the global south.
- Extra-diplomatic engagement: India can open channels to the democratic forces and to some ethnic groups; it can work more actively with ASEAN; it could open an army-to-army channel with the junta; increase people-to-people channels; offer scholarships to Myanmar students like it did for Afghan students in a different era.
- Ensuring fair elections: The junta is mulling elections later this year after rejigging the first-past-the-post system to proportional representation to undermine the NLD’s electoral might.
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February 4, 2023
iCET: Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies between India and US
Context
- The talks between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his American counterpart Jake Sullivan in Washington this week have concluded with the announcement of a new road map for deeper military and techno-economic cooperation between the two countries that is iCET.
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Background: Idea first mooted in QUAD summit
- The idea was first mooted in the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden on the margins of the Tokyo summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) last May.
Ups and downs in high technology cooperation in US-India relations
- Early advances in India’s nuclear and space programs: High technology cooperation has long been a major focus of US-India relations. Early advances in India’s nuclear and space programmes in the 1950s and 1960s involved significant inputs from the US.
- US nuclear sanctions and reduced cooperation: But the US nuclear sanctions from the 1970s steadily whittled down the extent of bilateral high-tech cooperation.
- Civil nuclear initiative renewed cooperation: The historic civil nuclear initiative of 2005 opened the door for renewed technological cooperation.
- Political ambivalence bureaucratic inertia prevented best use: But residual restrictions on technology transfer in Washington and Delhi’s political ambivalence and bureaucratic inertia prevented the best use of the new possibilities.
- The iCET process and new possibilities ahead: The iCET process, which will be monitored and driven from the PMO in Delhi and the White House in Washington, will hopefully bring greater coherence to this round of India-US technological engagement.
What is Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)?
- Cooperation in emerging technology: The iCET is a partnership between India and the US to work together in developing important and new technologies.
- Areas of collaboration for instance: The iCET involves collaboration in a range of areas including quantum computing, semiconductors, 5G and 6G wireless infrastructure, and civilian space projects such as lunar exploration.
- Adding depth and breadth to already growing partnership: The iCET’s goal is to increase the technology interaction between the US and India while also potentially adding additional strategic depth and breadth to their growing partnership.
- Directly monitored by PMO and White house: The Prime Minister’s Office in Delhi and the White House in Washington will oversee and direct the iCET.
Significance of iCET for India
- The importance of iCET in the context of assertive China: Lending urgency to the iCET is the growing convergence of Indian and US interests in managing the security, economic, and technological challenges presented by a rising and assertive China.
- India’s alternative for dependence on Russian military technology: India is also looking to reduce its over dependence on Russian weapons and military technology and to produce more weapons at home in partnership with western countries.
- Boost to India’s technological capabilities: The iCET would provide India with access to cutting-edge technology and expertise in areas that are critical and emerging in nature.
- Economic growth: Working together on new and important technologies can lead to more business between India and the US, which can help the economy grow as it will bring more investment and employment opportunities.
Other focus area: Cooperation in defence production
- The two sides are also focused on cooperation in defence production.
- While much of this cooperation will need to be fleshed out in the months ahead, Doval and Sullivan announced one concrete measure the making of a fighter jet engine in India.
- GE Aerospace has applied for an export licence for jet engine production and phased transfer of technology to Indian entities. Washington promises to process this application expeditiously. This fits in nicely with Delhi’s plans to modernise its rusty defence industrial base.
Conclusion
- If implemented with speed and purpose, the bilateral Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) could lend a new strategic depth and breadth to the expanding engagement between India and the United States.
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Q. What is Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)? Discuss the Importance of iCET especially for India.

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February 2, 2023