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Subject: International Relations

  • Israel-Palestinian violence on West Bank soars

    west bank

    US has urged Israel and the Palestinians to ease tensions amid a spike in violence that has put the West Bank region on edge.

    Where is West Bank?

    • The West Bank is a landlocked territory near the coast of the Mediterranean in Western Asia that forms the main bulk of the Palestinian territories.
    • It is bordered by Jordan and the Dead Sea to the east and by Israel to the south, west, and north.

    Point of discussion: Anti-Semitism

    • Anti-Semitism (hatred against Jews) is an officially stated policy of many theocratic countries (created by divine orders of religion).
    • This includes entire Arab world, the self-proclaimed caliphate ‘Turkiye’ and even Pakistan.
    • Jews, the micro-minority religion of the world were denied access to their homeland.

    What is the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

    • The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
    • Palestinian people —the Arab people from the same area— want to have a state by the name of Palestine in that area.
    • The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is over who gets what land and how it’s controlled.
    • Jews fleeing the persecution in Europe at the time wanted to establish a Jewish state on the land which they believe to be their ancient homeland.
    • The Arab at the time resisted, saying the land was theirs. The land at the time was called Palestine.
    • In 1917’s Balfour Declaration, the United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine.
    • Arabs resisted it which led to violence.

    Jews into West Bank: Arab hinterland in Israel

    • Some 75,000 Jews migrated to Palestine from 1922-26 and some 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935, according to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas.
    • It adds that Palestinian Arabs demanded the UK to halt Jewish emigration, but the UK ignored such calls. There were violent incidents, leading to deaths of some 500 people.
    • In 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine came into effect.
    • The document was issued by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations (UN).
    • The mandate gave the UK the responsibility for creating a Jewish national homeland in the region.
    • In 1936, the UK government recommended the partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

    How did the issue escalate?

    • In 1947, Britain referred the issue of Palestine to the UN, which came up with a partition plan.
    • It put up two proposals. One, two separate states joined economically —the majority proposal— and, two, a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas, the minority proposal.
    • The Jewish community approved of the first of these proposals, while the Arabs opposed them both.

    Israel’s independence

    • In May 1948, Israel declared its independence. This was eye-pricking development for Arabs.
    • The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt invaded the newly-declared country immediately.
    • When the war ended, Israel gained some territory formerly granted to Palestinian Arabs under the UN resolution in 1947.
    • It also retained control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank respectively.

    Resolving the conflict

    Ans. Two-state solution

    • The two-state solution refers to an arrangement where Israeli and Palestinian states co-exist in the region.
    • However, such a solution has not materialised over the decades.
    • As outlined in the beginning and in the briefly explained roots of the conflict, the two-state solution means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

    Why it hasn’t worked out?

    There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

    [1] Borders

    • There is no consensus as to how to draw the lines dividing the two proposed states.
    • Many people say borders should have pre-1967 lines.
    • In 1967 Israeli-Arab war, Israel captured Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights.
    • Israel is not willing to give up these gains. It returned Sinai to Egypt in 1982.
    • Moreover, there is the question of Israeli settlements in West Bank.

    [2] Question of Jerusalem

    • Both Israel and Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital and call it central to their religion and culture.
    • The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but it is not easy to draw the line — Jewish, Muslim and Christian holy sites are on top of one another.
    • Israel has declared Jerusalem its ‘undivided capital’, effectively annexing its eastern half, and has built up construction that entrenches Israeli control of the city.

    [3] Refugees

    • A large number of Palestinians had to flee in the 1948 War.
    • They and their descendants —numbering at 5 million— demand a right to return. Israel rejects this.
    • The return of these people would end the demographic majority of Jews, ending the idea of Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish.

    [4] Security

    • Security concerns are also central to Israel as it’s constantly harassed by terrorist group Hamas that controls Gaza Strip.
    • Hamas and other Islamist group in Gaza launch rockets into Israel time-to-time.
    • Moreover, there are also concerns of Palestinians’ attack inside Israel.
    • This year in March-April, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
    • A total of 27 Palestinians were also killed in the period, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians too have their concerns.
    • For Palestinians, security means an end to foreign military occupation.

    Why the two-state solution is needed?

    • Besides fulfilling the basic desire of both Jews and Arabs of their own states, supporters of two-state solutions say it must be backed because its alternatives are simply not workable.
    • A single state merging Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
    • At the same time, in such a state, Jews would be a significant minority which would mean that the Arab majority would be miffed.

    Moral reasoning for a two-state solution

    • It says that the aspirations of one person should not be overridden for others’ aspirations.
    • It’s a struggle for collective rights between two distinct groups of people.
    • Jews are the global micro-minority with a very small piece of land to exist.
    • Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would represent a subordination of one group’s aspirations to someone else’s vision.

    Way forward

    • India opines that long-term peace in Israel and Palestine can be achieved only through a negotiated two-State solution leading.
    • This can be done with the establishment of a sovereign, independent and viable State of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders.

     

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  • Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the disputes

    Indus

    Context

    • India’s January 25 notice to Islamabad seeking modification of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty is the fallout of a longstanding dispute over two hydroelectric power projects on the western rivers the fully operational Kishenganga on the Jhelum, and Ratle on the Chenab.

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    Indus

    What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three eastern rivers of India the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India.
    • The control over the water flowing in three western rivers of India the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty

    • Equitable water-sharing: Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • Empathizing the Partition: The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Water does not recognize borders: Underlying the treaty is the principle that water does not recognise international boundaries and upper riparians have a responsibility to lower riparians.

    Indus

    What is the issue?

    • Pakistan’s objection: The Kishenganga was constructed after the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in India’s favour. But Pakistan continues to object to this and the Ratle dam.
    • Delhi sought to modify: Delhi, reportedly, has sought to modify the treaty after Pakistan refused intergovernmental negotiations on the matter.
    • Stages for resolving disputes: While that is the first stage provided under the treaty for resolving disputes, the next is the request to the World Bank by the aggrieved party for the appointment of a neutral expert. A court of arbitration is constituted as the last resort.

    Significance of the treaty

    • Testimonial to peaceful coexistence: It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship. The IWT is the only agreement between India and Pakistan that has stood the test of time, through wars and terrorism.
    • Survived many hostilities: It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • Most successful bilateral treaty: It is internationally regarded as an example of successful conflict resolution between two countries otherwise locked in a hostile relationship.

    Indus

    India and Pakistan’s POV

    • While the treaty does provide for modification from time to time, it has to do so by means of a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.
    • More likely, the issue will fester and grow into another active pressure point in India-Pakistan relations.
    • On the Pakistani side, accusations are made with increasing frequency that India has turned off the water, and on this side, the view is growing that India was been too generous in the IWT.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remark in the aftermath of the 2016 Uri attack that “blood and water cannot flow together”, even though how this threat might be implemented is not clear as it would be plain dangerous to build big dams to stop the western rivers from flowing across the LoC in a seismologically active region.

    Conclusion

    • Using water as a weapon is never a good idea. It would be so much better for both countries to treat the IWT as an instrument for collaboration on climate action in the fragile Himalayan region.

    Mains question

    Q. What is Indus water treaty? Discuss the significance of IWT and highlight some of the issues.

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  • India sends notice to Pakistan to amend 1960 Indus Water Treaty

    indus

    India announced that it wants to modify the 62-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.

    Why India issued notice to Pakistan?

    • Unsolicited disputes over Indian hydel projects: India cited Pakistan’s intransigence in resolving disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects, both in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Dragging arbitration: India protested Pakistan’s “unilateral” decision to approach a court of arbitration at The Hague.
    • A foul cry: Pakistan’s move to push the World Bank for a Court of Arbitration ran counter to the pre-existing channel of dispute resolution through a “neutral expert” appointed by the World Bank.
    • Renegotiating IWT: The decision to issue notice to Pakistan is a major step and could lead to the unravelling and renegotiation of the water sharing treaty.

    Why is Pakistan objecting?

    • Pakistan had first raised objections to India’s construction of the 330 MW Kishenganga hydroelectric project on the Jhelum river back in 2006.
    • It then objected to plans to construct the 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab river as well.
    • Both India and Pakistan differred on whether the technical details of the hydel projects conformed with the treaty, given that the Jhelum and Chenab were part of the “western tributaries”.

    What is Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty

    • Equitable water-sharing: Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • Empathizing the Partition: The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.

    Why is India rethinking on this treaty?

    • Mostly favours Pakistan: Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • Unnecessarily generous: It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers. Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • Reclaiming riparian rights: India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers. Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • Limited irrigation: The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use.
    • Unrestricted commercial use: It gave powers for unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • Hydel projects: It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • Addressing Pak’s concerns: The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • Testimonial to peaceful coexistence: It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • Survived many hostilities: It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • Most successful bilateral treaty: It is internationally regarded as an example of successful conflict resolution between two countries otherwise locked in a hostile relationship.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • India’s generosity: It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • Free flow of waters: India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • Huge dependence Pak economy: About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Humanitarian grounds: Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.
    • India’s credibility: Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    Why should India rethink?

    • Blow of terroristan: PM Modi’s words hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • A tit for tat: If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

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  • India and Saudi Arabia: Strengthening the Bond

    Saudi Arabia

    Context

    • Saudi Arabia and India ties have undergone a significant transformation in recent years. The camaraderie between the two nations is rooted in our cultural and civilisational ties. The Kingdom and India share mutual respect and appreciation which opens doors for our collaboration and partnership. These ties have been cemented by diplomatic visits made by leaders from both countries.

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    Saudi Arabia

    Recent visits by the leaders of India and Saudi Arabia

    • Visit by Prince: The visit of His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister then, to New Delhi in February 2019
    • PM Modis visit to Saudi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Riyadh in October of the same year are two watershed moments in our journey of strategic ties.

    Outcome of such visits

    • Number of MoU’s for multiple sectors: During these visits, both nations concluded a number of MoUs for multiple sectors including energy, civil aviation, security, defence production, regulation of medical products, strategic petroleum reserves, small and medium scale industries, and the training of diplomats in our respective academies.
    • Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) and working group: These two high-level visits anchored the historic formation of Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) at the leadership level. The SPC also saw the formation of working groups in multiple sectors significant to both nations.
    • Comprehensive review of agreements and new opportunities: Since 2019, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and India have taken a comprehensive review of the agreements and have explored opportunities to work together.

    Saudi Arabia

    Energy security and Bilateral trade between the two

    • Trade extended to other sectors apart from energy: While our ties stem from energy security, over the years they have percolated into many other sectors, including pharma, IT and telecommunications. The Kingdom alone accounts for 18 per cent of India’s crude oil import.
    • India is the second largest trading partner: Saudi Arabia is also the fourth largest trading partner of India while India is the second largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia with our bilateral trade close to $43 billion.
    • Conducive business environment in the Kingdom: A number of leading Indian companies have also set up a base in Saudi Arabia, signifying the conducive business environment in the Kingdom.
    • Joint ventures signifies trust and strong relationship: There are close to 750 Indian companies registered as joint ventures or 100 per cent owned companies based in Saudi Arabia, further indicating the strong relationship and trust between the nations.
    • Huge investment via Public Investment fund: Since the formation of our SPC, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has made investments of about $2.8 billion in digital and retail sectors of India. Similarly, Indian investments in Saudi Arabia have also reached $2 billion which are distributed amongst different sectors.
    • Shared vision of the two: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and its 13 vision realisation programmes are closely aligned with India’s flagship initiatives of Make in India, Start-up India, Smart Cities, Clean India, and Digital India. Both economies have seen robust growth in the last decade.
    • Close cooperation in important fields: Both nations have now been working closely together in important fields to achieve mutual and strategic objectives. This was in part achieved by allocating funds to the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovation (CEPI), The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisations (GAVI), and other international and regional health organisations and programmes.

    Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

    • Economic and social reforms: Under the aegis of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to transform its economy and society. Saudi Arabia is undergoing path-breaking economic and social reforms. The Kingdom has been working towards fostering its growing investment sector that will stimulate the economy.
    • Cultural investment: The Kingdom, as part of Vision 2030, has also been investing in its culture with events such as the Red Sea Film Festival, which is dedicated to celebrating excellence in cinema and fostering the resurgent creative energy of Saudi and Arab filmmakers.
    • Investment for sustainable infrastructure: The launch of the Events Investment Fund (EIF) by HRH Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims to develop a sustainable infrastructure for the culture, tourism, entertainment, and sports sectors across the Kingdom. The fund seeks to develop world-class sustainable infrastructure including indoor arenas, art galleries, theatres, conference centres, horse-racing tracks, auto racing tracks, and other facilities across the Kingdom.

    Saudi Arabia

    Way ahead

    • The opportunities presented under Vision 2030 can be leveraged by India to invest in the Kingdom.
    • With India assuming the G20 presidency, it paves the way for the perfect opportunity to sustain meaningful dialogue around accelerated and inclusive growth while achieving Sustainable Development Goals as the global economy navigates through the post-Covid era.

    Conclusion

    • Amidst current global circumstances, India continues to successfully manoeuvre itself towards greater economic progress, built on strong foundations of sustainability and a thriving local community a feat and vision that it shares with its close partner Saudi Arabia. As India celebrates its 74th Republic Day with a vision of progress and prosperity, strengthening collaboration between India and Saudi Arabia will drive both economies and promote peace and stability in the region and the world.

    Mains question

    Q Discuss the key developments in the strategic relationship between Saudi Arabia and India. Highlight the growing bilateral trade.

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  • Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

    India and Egypt reiterated their support for the Non-Aligned Movement.

    Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

    • NAM is a forum of 120 developing world states that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc.
    • After the United Nations, it is the largest grouping of states worldwide.
    • Drawing on the principles agreed at the Bandung Conference in 1955, the NAM was established in 1961 in Belgrade, SR Serbia, and Yugoslavia.
    • It was an initiative of then PM Jawaharlal Nehru, Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah, Indonesian President Sukarno, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito.
    • The countries of the NAM represent nearly two-thirds of the United Nations’ members and contain 55% of the world population.

    Reasons behind NAM creation

    • Balancing the US and USSR: Non-alignment, a policy fashioned for the Cold War, aimed to retain the autonomy of policy (not equidistance) between two politico-military blocs i.e. the US and the Soviet Union.
    • Platform beyond UN: The NAM provided a platform for newly independent developing nations to join together to protect this autonomy.

    Relevance TODAY

    • Changing with emerging scenarios: Since the end of the Cold War, the NAM has been forced to redefine itself and reinvent its purpose in the current world system.
    • Focus towards development: It has focused on developing multilateral ties and connections as well as unity among the developing nations of the world, especially those within the Global South.

    Fading significance of the NAM

    • Loosing relevance: The policy of non-alignment lost its relevance after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of unipolar world order under the leadership of the US since 1991.
    • De-colonization was largely complete by then, the apartheid regime in South Africa was being dismantled and the campaign for universal nuclear disarmament was going nowhere.
    • Freed from the shackles of the Cold War, the NAM countries were able to diversify their network of relationships across the erstwhile east-west divide.

    India and the NAM

    • Important role played by India: India played an important role in the multilateral movements of colonies and newly independent countries that wanted into the NAM.
    • India as a leader: Country´s place in national diplomacy, its significant size and its economic miracle turned India into one of the leaders of the NAM and upholder of the Third World solidarity.
    • The principle of ‘acting and making its own choices’ also reflected India’s goal to remain independent in foreign policy choices, although posing dilemmas and challenges between national interests on international arena and poverty alleviation.
    • Preserving the state’s security required alternative measures: Namely, the economic situation with the aim to raise the population’s living standards challenged the country’s defense capacity and vice versa.
    • Fewer choices: Wars with China and Pakistan had led India to an economically difficult situation and brought along food crisis in the mid-1960s, which made the country dependent on US food.

    What dictates India’s alignment now?

    • National security: China’s rise and assertiveness as a regional and global power and the simultaneous rise of middle powers in the region mean that this balancing act is increasing in both complexity and importance, simultaneously.
    • Global decision-making: Another distinctive feature of India’s foreign policy has been the aim to adjust international institutions consistent with changes in international system.
    • Prosperity and influence: India’s 21st century’s strategic partnerships aims for India becoming the voice of global South.
    • Multi-polarism: Another means to execute India’s foreign policy strategy of autonomy has been forming extensive partnerships with other emerging powers.

    Why NAM still matters?

    • Global perception of India: India’s image abroad has suffered as a result of allegations that creep into our secular polity and a need arises to actively network and break out of isolation.
    • For the Impulsive US: For India complete dependence on the U.S. to counter China would be an error.
    • Ukrainian invasion has revitalized Cold War: Critics of NAM who term it as an outcome of the Cold War must also acknowledge that a new Cold War is beginning to unfold, this time between the US and China.
    • NAM provides a much bigger platform:NAM becomes relevant to mobilize international public opinion against terrorism, weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), nuclear proliferation, ecological imbalance, safeguarding interests of developing countries in WTO etc.
    • NAM as a tool for autonomy:NAM’s total strength comprises 120 developing countries and most of them are members of the UN General Assembly. Thus, NAM members act as an important group in support of India’s candidature as a permanent member in UNSC.
    • NAM for multilateralism:Though globalization is facing an existential crisis, it is not possible to return to isolation. In the world of complex interdependence, countries are linked to each other one way or another.
    • NAM as a source for soft power:India can use its historic ties to bring together the NAM countries. India’s strength lies in soft power rather than hard power.

    Way forward

    • Strategic autonomy: India is showing signs of pursuing strategic autonomy separately from non-alignment.
    • Bilateralism: Indo-US ties are complementary, and a formal alliance will only help realize the full potential of these relations.
    • Non-alliance: India interacts with other states in expectations to change the international system, but without expectations to ‘ally or oppose.’
    • Deep engagement: India needs deeper engagement with its friends and partners if it is to develop leverage in its dealings with its adversaries and competitors.

    Conclusion

    • A wide and diverse range of strategic partners, including the U.S. as a major partner is the only viable diplomatic way forward in the current emerging multipolar world order.

     

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  • SCO and the India- Pakistan relation

    SCO

    Context

    • A meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) that India will host in May is expected to bring together foreign ministers of the regional grouping, which includes China, Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Bilateral ties with Pakistan and China are at a new low. But multilateral settings are often viewed as opportunities for countries with problematic relations to find a way forward.

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    The crux

    • India has invited Pakistan’s foreign minister to a meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) that India is hosting in May this year.

    SCO

    All you need to know about SCO

    • Background: After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the then security and economic architecture in the Eurasian region dissolved and new structures had to come up.
    • Original shanghai five: The original Shanghai Five were China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
    • SCO formation: The SCO was formed in 2001, with Uzbekistan included. It expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan.
    • Security is the priority: Since its formation, the SCO has focused on regional non-traditional security, with counter-terrorism as a priority.
    • Three evils: The fight against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism has become its mantra.
    • Expanded areas of cooperation: Today, areas of cooperation include themes such as economics and culture.

    Do you know SCO RATS?

    • Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) is a permanent organ of the SCO which serves to promote cooperation of member states against the three evils of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
    • It is headquartered in Tashkent.
    • Its head is elected to three-year term.
    • Each member state of SCO sends permanent representative to RATS.

    SCO

    Where India and Pakistan stand today?

    • Changed terms of engagement: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has begun to reset the terms of the engagement agenda.
    • India’s improved diplomatic position: India’s transformed relations with the US, the resolution of Delhi’s dispute with the global nuclear order, and getting the West to discard its temptation to mediate on Kashmir enormously improved India’s diplomatic position.
    • Economic growth: The most consequential change has been in the economic domain. India has recently overtaken the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world.
    • Broken Pakistan: The persistent neglect of economic challenges left Pakistan in an increasingly weaker position in relation to India. If India has inched its way into the top five global economies, Pakistan today is broken.

    India’s position on engagement with Pakistan

    • India’s approach in dealing with Pakistan today: The Ministry of External Affairs’ official spokesperson Arindam Bagchi recently said “We we have always wanted normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan. But there should be a conducive atmosphere in which there is no terror, hostility or violence. That remains our position.”
    • What Pakistan says: Deputy Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said in Davos that she does not see a partner currently in the Prime Minister of India to take this project of peace-building forward.

    Conclusion

    • When the multilateral meeting is to be hosted by a country that is on one side of the rift, the first step is for the other side to accept the invitation. An election is upcoming in Pakistan, and having committed themselves to a position, both Bhutto and Khar would be mindful that their actions must match their words. But despite this, if there is an opportunity for a thaw, India must not be the one to miss it. India need handle the hostile neighbor with the right approach.

  • India could lead the G20 agenda in a unique way

    G20

    Context

    • The G20, or Group of 20, has emerged as the primary venue for international economic and financial cooperation. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 on 1 December 2022, symbolising the motto and showcasing its philosophies of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.

    G20

    What One Earth, One Family, One Future suggests?

    • India committed to making India’s year of chairmanship one that will focus on “healing our ‘One Earth’, creating harmony within our ‘One Family’, and giving hope for our ‘One Future’ and LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).

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    What is Troika?

    • The troika means previous, current, and incoming presidency which comprise Indonesia, India, and Brazil, respectively.
    • The troika is leading the global agenda at G20 in the current turbulent economic times.
    • Beyond being a forum for policy discussions, the G20 plays the role of reconciling the irreconcilable.
    • The number of talks and years the group has been together has resulted in a mixed bag of success.

    How India should set up a global agenda: Proposed principles

    • Democratising the process of setting the agenda: While setting up the global agenda, it is critical to bring together all the partner nations to understand their priorities. It will ensure diversity, equity, inclusivity, sustainability, transparency, and long-term commitment. This can also help ensure that the domestic policies are aligned and support global priorities.
    • Strike a balance between the needs of developing and developed countries: Since India has a greater responsibility to shoulder, it should not work and seem biased. Similarly, developed nations should instead exercise greater caution with their rich resource pools. To create a win-win scenario rather than a zero-sum game, we must think in terms of multilateralism.
    • Critical to focus on determined priorities: It is critical to prevent the G20 from suffering as other multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) do from an over-expansion of its mandate. While being ambitious in their approach, it is crucial to set defined, limited long-term priorities.
    • Set concrete, measurable, and tangible goals: Measurable outcomes with short, medium, and long-term objectives are crucial. Financial considerations must be made in addition to ensuring inclusivity, sustainability, and accountability.
    • Prevent reinventing the wheels: To encourage faster mutual growth, it is necessary to prevent duplication of efforts. It is important to prevent duplication of existing international institutions, fragmentation of financial resources, and the weakening of the coordinating role of the existing multilateral organisations. The ‘cooperative and collaborative frameworks are key to successful outcomes.
    • Prejudice-free dialogues are required to promote solidarity: Prejudices on international platforms can pose a threat to global security. Dialogue as an antidote is a force for conflict prevention, management, and resolution.
    • Mutual safeguarding is necessary: Mutual safeguarding from disguised elements of neo-colonialism and hegemony is essential for cutting through the socio-cultural and geopolitical barriers between the Global South and the Global North.
    • The principle of Antyodaya (rise of the last person:): The global lens must capture every aspect of a community through inclusive dialogues, from the most marginalised to the most privileged. It is crucial to set the vertical and horizontal plans on a global and national level with the ‘last person standing in line’ in mind.

    G20

    India’s current global Image

    • India for global governance: While India’s successes are being assessed and unprecedented hopes are being expressed about our future, the country’s trust in the global governance architecture is evident through several examples from the recent past, like the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in India as well as remarkable vaccine diplomacy initiative ‘Vaccine Maitri’.
    • Fastest growing economy: With one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, the country has earned its stripes during tough external and internal times.
    • India among the tops in global climate change performance index: Similarly, India has been ranked among the top five countries under the global Climate Change Performance Index. Moreover, it has taken the lead in spearheading the transition towards cleaner energy sources.
    • Social capitalism nature of economy: With its social capitalism, India has earned a geopolitical sweet spot in the world.

    G20

    Conclusion

    • India can lead the G20 agenda in a unique way the global community has never witnessed. Keeping the essential principles in mind when developing agendas, action-oriented plans, and decisions through collaborative efforts have the potential to yield revolutionary and positive results. The vision of shaping a new paradigm of human-centric globalisation is promising, provided the Global North and South communities provide equal support.

    Mains question

    Q. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 with a motto One Earth, One Family, One Future. In this backdrop how India can set up an agenda for future and not only for a period of presidentship.

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  • Lay-off Indian techies scrambling for options to stay in US

    Thousands of Indian IT professionals in the US, who have lost their jobs due to the series of recent layoffs at companies like Google, Microsoft and Amazon, are now struggling to find new employment within the stipulated period under their work visas.

    Recent layoff is US

    • Nearly 200,000 IT workers have been laid off since November last year, including some record numbers in companies like Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon.
    • As per some industry insiders, between 30 to 40 per cent of them are Indian IT professionals, a significant number of whom are on H-1B and L1 visas.

    What one means by Lay-Off?

    • A layoff is the temporary or permanent termination of employment by an employer for reasons unrelated to the employee’s performance.
    • Employees may be laid off when companies aim to cut costs, due to a decline in demand for their products or services, seasonal closure, or during an economic downturn.
    • When laid off, employees lose all wages and company benefits but qualify for unemployment insurance or compensation (typically in USA).

    Why do companies resort to layoffs?

    • Cost reduction: One of the main reasons why workers get laid off is because the company decides to cut back on costs in some way. The need can arise from the fact that the company is not making enough profits to cover its expenses or because it needs substantial extra cash to address paying off debt.
    • Staffing redundancies: Layoffs also occur when a company needs to eliminate some positions due to over-staffing, outsourcing, or a modification to the roles.  A company may want to eliminate redundant positions in order to make its operations more efficient.
    • Relocation: Moving the company’s operations from one area to another can also bring about the need to let go of some workers. Shutting down the initial location will not only affect the workers who get laid off but the surrounding community’s economy as well.
    • Merger or buyout: If a business is bought out or decides to merge with another, the change might lead to a change in the company’s leadership and corporate direction. If there’s new management, the chances are that they’ll come up with new goals and plans, and this can lead to layoffs.

    Immediate triggers of Lay-Off

    • Pandemic Boom: During the pandemic, there was a surge in demand as people were in lockdown and they were spending a lot of time on the internet. The overall consumption saw an upsurge following which the companies went to increase their output to meet the market requirements.
    • Over hiring during pandemic: In order to meet the demands, many tech companies went on a hiring spree anticipating the boom to continue even after the pandemic. However, as the curbs were eased and people started stepping out of their homes, consumption fell, resulting in heavy losses to these big tech companies. Some of these resources were hired at a higher cost because of the sudden upsurge in demand.
    • Fear of recession: As the demand is coming back to pre-Covid levels and seeing the debt bubble almost about to burst and fearing recession, these companies are cutting down their costs by closing down low-performing projects and laying off the excess and high-cost resources they hired to accelerate growth.
    • Russia-Ukraine War: The war has also contributed to these layoffs as it has made the market more volatile. This is clearly visible from stock market volatility.
    • Inflation: Rising inflation has also impacted several world economies severely leading to a crisis in the job market as well. The world is currently hitting a reset button to overcome all these ups and downs.

    Various US Visa Programs

    1) H-1B visa

    • What is it: The H-1B visa category covers individuals who “work in a speciality occupation, engage in cooperative research and development projects administered by the US Department of Defense or are fashion models that have national or international acclaim and recognition.”
    • Who’s covered: The H-1B is most well known as a visa for skilled tech workers, but other industries, like health care and the media, also use these visas.

    2) H-2B visa

    • What it is: According to USCIS, the H-2B program allows US employers or agents “to bring foreign nationals to the United States to fill temporary non-agricultural jobs.”
    • Who’s covered: They generally apply to seasonal workers in industries like landscaping, forestry, hospitality and construction.

    3) J-1 visa

    • What it is: The J-1 visa is an exchange visitor visa for individuals approved to participate in work-and-study-based exchange visitor programs in the United States.

      Who’s covered:       The impacted people include interns, trainees, teachers, camp counsellors, au pairs and participants in summer work travel programs.

    4) L-1 visa

    • What it is: The L1 Visa is reserved for managerial or executive professionals transferring to the US from within the same company, or a subsidiary of it. The L1 Visa can also be used for a foreign company opening up US operations.
    • Who’s covered: Within the L1 Visa, there are two subsidiary types of visas
    1. L1A visa for managers and executives.
    2. L1B visa for those with specialized knowledge.

    Why these matters?

    • A significantly large number of Indian IT professionals, who are on non-immigrant work visas like H-1B are L1.
    • They are now scrambling for options to stay in the US to find a new job in the stipulated few months’ time that they get under these foreign work visas after losing their jobs and change their visa status as well.

    Impacts of Lay-offs

    • Cut-throat market competition: Layoffs are a painful but expected fact of life in a market economy exposed to competition and trade.
    • Immense loss to the workers: Layoffs can be damaging psychologically as well as financially to the affected workers as well as their families, communities, colleagues, and other businesses.
    • Decreased customer loyalty: When a company lays off its employees it sends out a message to customers that it is undergoing some sort of crisis.
    • Emotional Distress: The person who is laid off suffers the most distress, but remaining employees suffer emotionally as well. The productivity level of employees who work in fear is likely to go down.

    Lessons for India

    • Indian startups grew at a notoriously faster pace than its neighboring regions.
    • But the layoffs are a sobering reminder that the bigger the startups became, the harder they fell.
    • Just because a startup had touched a sky-high valuation did not immediately mean its employees’ jobs were insured.

    Way forward

    • Voluntary retirement program: This enables individuals to transition to retirement smoothly.
    • Cut back on the extras: If a company is laying off workers to reduce costs, it can look for other avenues of saving money. For example, the company managers can freeze additional hiring, reduce or remove bonuses.
    • Consider a virtual office: Another way to cut down on costs is to keep only the most important staff onsite and send the rest of the workers home to work remotely.
    • Offer more unpaid time off: A company owner can also save money by offering more unpaid time off rather than eliminating workers’ positions.

     

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  • Key takeaways form the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting

    World Economic Forum

    Context

    • The World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023, held in the Swiss town of Davos, ended Friday a conference that started in a world possibly fundamentally altered, but whose processes and outcomes remained pretty much business as usual.

    The theme this year was ‘Cooperation in a Fragmented World’.

    World Economic Forum (WEF)

    • Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, WEF is an international not-for-profit organization, focused on bringing the public and private sectors together to address the global political, social, and economic issues.
    • It was founded in 1971 by Swiss-German economist and Professor Klaus Schwab in a bid to promote the global cooperation on these most pressing problems.
    • The first meeting of WEF was held more than five decades ago in Davos, which has been the home of the annual gathering almost ever since, also becoming the shorthand for the event.

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    World Economic Forum

    key takeaways from WEF on the economy

    • Positive outlook for economy: Most business leaders were upbeat about the economy, with US and the European Union (EU) seemingly beyond the risk of a recession now. China ending its zero Covid curbs and opening shop again added to the positive outlook.
    • Caution from central banks: Central banks of the major economies cautioned that concerns still remained, and said they would keep interest rates high to ensure inflation is under check. For example, Stay the course is my mantra, European Central Bank President quoted. The US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard was quoted as reminding investors that “inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time.
    • Potential impact on energy prices: Many also pointed out that China opening up could mean a rise in its energy consumption, thereby driving up energy prices.
    • Concerns for developing economies: As the richer nations look to focus inwards, protecting their own workers, energy sufficiency, supply lines, etc., concerns were raised that this policy direction would hit developing economies.

    World Economic Forum

    Climate change and green energy discussions at World Economic Forum

    • The need for green energy and financing: Everyone agreed upon the need for green energy and the need for more money to flight climate change.
    • GAEA initiative to unlock $3 trillion financing: According to the WEF’s website, The World Economic Forum, supported by more than 45 partners launched the Giving to Amplify Earth Action (GAEA), a global initiative to fund and grow new and existing public, private and philanthropic partnerships (PPPPs) to help unlock the $3 trillion of financing needed each year to reach net zero, reverse nature loss and restore biodiversity by 2050.
    • International Concerns and Reactions: The EU raised concerns over a US green energy law that benefits products, such as electric vehicles, made in America.
    • New Initiatives and Partnerships: The Press Trust of India (PTI) reported that more than 50 high-impact initiatives were launched at the event. 1.Maharashtra Institution for Transformation (MITRA) signed a partnership with the forum on urban transformation to give the state government strategic and technical direction. 2. A thematic centre on healthcare and life sciences is to be set up in Telangana. 3. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI) aims to develop new vaccines for future pandemics.

    Ukraine demands more military and financial aid

    • Military Aid and Financial Aid for Reconstruction: Ukraine kept up its demand for more military aid to fight its war against Russia, and more financial aid to rebuild after the war, saying the reconstruction fund commitments should start coming in now and not after the war ends.
    • President Zelenskyy’s Address and Criticism of US and Germany: While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a video address. In his address, Zelenskyy made an indirect criticism of the US and Germany dithering over sending tanks to his country.

    World Economic Forum

    Criticism and defence of the Davos Event

    • Spectacle of Rich and Powerful Talking about Poverty and Climate: The jarring spectacle of the Davos event where the uber-rich and powerful fly in on private jets to talk about poverty alleviation and climate action came in for criticism yet again.
    • Opportunity for Decision-Makers to Meet and Interact: However, others pointed out that despite its flaws, the conference is an opportunity for many decision-makers to meet and interact with each other.
    • The Economist’s View on the Importance of Communication and Conversation: As the Economist editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes put it, while the talks at Davos can be described as “highly-caffeinated speed dating”, more conversation and communication is better than less contact and less communication.

    Conclusion

    • The World Economic Forum highlighted the pressing need for green energy and financing to combat climate change. Though the event remained focused on business as usual, we can see that the WEF provided an opportunity for decision-makers to meet and interact, and more than 50 high-impact initiatives were launched at the event.

    Mains Question

    Q. Discuss some of the key takeaways from the WEF’s annual meeting 2023, with a specific focus on the discussions and initiatives related to the economy and climate change.

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  • Indo-pacific and the New Eurasia

    pacific

    Context

    • Japan, which invented the contemporary geopolitical idea of the Indo-Pacific, is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In his swing through Europe last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s message was simple, the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is indivisible.

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    How Japan shaped the idea of Indo-pacific?

    • Japan is not alone for Indo-pacific anymore: Building on the ideas of his predecessor, the late Shinzo Abe, Kishida is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe. Together Japan, South Korea and Australia are bridging the divide between Asia and Europe long seen as separate geopolitical theatres.
    • South Korea raising profile in Europe: South Korea, which does not always see eye to eye with Japan, is also joining the party by raising its profile in Europe. for example, Seoul, is selling major weapons platforms in Poland.
    • Australia eager to bring Europe in Indo pacific: Australia, which has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS arrangement, is equally eager to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific.
    • Accelerated by Ukraine war: This process has been accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

    The idea of Eurasia

    • Many used it as a neutral term: The idea of Eurasia is not new, many used it as a neutral term to describe the vast landmass that connected Europe and Asia.
    • Separate political spheres: Despite continental continuity, Europe and Asia emerged as separate political and cultural spheres over the millennia.
    • Russia as European and Asian: Russia, which straddles this space, saw itself as both a European and Asian power but had trouble becoming a part of either. When post-Soviet Russia’s effort to integrate with the West soured in the 2000s, it developed Eurasia and Greater Eurasia as new geopolitical constructs.
    • Putin’s Eurasian strategy: Consolidating the former Soviet space, restoring influence in Central Europe, building a strong alliance with China, and limiting Western influence in the continental heartland became part of Putin’s Eurasian strategy.

    China-Russia alliance

    • Altering geopolitical dynamics: Well before Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol turned to Europe, it was Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin who altered the geopolitical dynamic in Eurasia.
    • Alliance without limits: Days before he ordered his armies into Ukraine, Putin travelled to Beijing last February to sign an agreement declaring an alliance without limits and no forbidden areas.
    • China’s tilt towards Russia: China, which had made a largely successful effort to cultivate Europe since the 1990s, deliberately avoided taking sides in Europe’s conflicts with Russia. But on the eve of the Ukraine war, Xi chose to tilt towards Moscow by blaming NATO for the crisis in Ukraine.
    • New kind of Eurasian alliance: Together, Putin and Xi unveiled a Eurasian alliance that they might have hoped would deliver the long-awaited coup de grace to the global hegemony of the West. What it did instead was to not only strengthen the Western alliance in Europe but also provide the basis for a new kind of Eurasia an alliance between China’s East Asian neighbours and Russia’s West European neighbours.

    What are the Challenges for India?

    • For India, the rise of Eurasia is making it harder to ride on two boats at the same time: Until now, India could easily hunt with the maritime coalition the Quad in the Indo-Pacific and run at the same time with the continental coalitions led by Russia and China.
    • US Europe and Japan on the one hand and China, Russia on the other: The conflict between the US, Europe, and Japan on the one hand and China and Russia on the other is now acute and shows no signs of immediate amelioration.
    • India’s security challenge on Himalayan frontier: On the downside, then, India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier and the tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing will mean the shadow over India’s continental strategy will become darker in the days ahead.
    • Strategic capabilities in partnership: On the upside, the possibilities for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in partnership with the US and Europe as well as Japan, South Korea and Australia have never been stronger.

    Opportunities for India may include

    • Economic cooperation: Increased economic cooperation and trade between India and countries in Europe and Asia
    • India’s larger role in global affairs: The potential for India to play a larger role in regional and global affairs as a result of increased connectivity and cooperation
    • To address security concerns in Indo-Pacific: Opportunities for India to strengthen its ties with Japan and other countries in the region to address security concerns in the Indo-Pacific

    Conclusion

    • Japan’s strategy of promoting greater connectivity and cooperation between Europe and Asia could present both opportunities and challenges for India in terms of economic cooperation and geopolitical influence. India will have to carefully navigate and balance its relationships with various countries and groups in the region to maximize the opportunities and minimize the challenges.

    Mains question

    Q. Japan is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In this backdrop discuss opportunities and challenges for India.

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