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Subject: International Relations

  • G20: India at Urban20 (U20)

    G20

    Context

    • Fifty percent of the world’s population currently lives in urban areas, which is projected to increase by 1.5 times to 6 billion. However, cities continue to face mounting challenges in accommodating the needs of this rapidly expanding population. As a catalyst for global change, what promises can India’s presidency hold for half the world’s urban population?

    Background

    • India’s G20 presidency began on December 1. It will be driven by the underlying vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, best encapsulated by the motto “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.
    • G20’s Sustainable Development agenda aligns itself with sustainable actions to meet the goals of the 2030 Agenda.

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    G20

    What is Urban 20 (U20)?

    • A city diplomacy initiative within G20 ecosystem: Within the G20 ecosystem, a city diplomacy initiative called the “Urban 20” (U20) was launched in December 2017. As one of the formal Engagement Groups under G20, the U20 forum was meant to collectively raise critical urban issues of G20 cities during the G20 negotiations.
    • Special emphasis on cities: U20’s City Sherpas emphasise on the increasing importance of cities (both G20 and non-G20) as a country’s engines of innovation, economic growth, and productivity.
    • Focus on climate change and sustainable development: U20 specifically focuses on climate change, sustainable development, and socio-economic issues in connection with the Sustainable Development Goals.
    • Largely remained a platform of recommendation: Despite U20’s concerted efforts to run parallel to G20, the absence of any written constitution, procedures, or formal agreement has made U20 unable to effectively address the aspirations and concerns of cities. U20 seems to have largely remained a platform for expression and making recommendations without being able to directly influence urban planning or implement policy initiatives.
    • In this backdrop India has a unique opportunity: Within this framework, India now has the unique opportunity to outline and action specific U20 goals to link with the larger objectives of one of the most influential international forums.

    How U20 2023 provides an unique opportunity to India?

    • India’s U20 prospect can work towards engaging in meaningful policymaking and investments towards fulfilling the global 2030 Agenda.
    • By mindfully planning the allocation of urban resources and inspiring sustainable practices, India can set a new balanced template. While learning from the best practices of some of the soundest cities,

    G20

    How India can initiate actions at U20

    • Prioritizing post Covid urban social and emotional wellbeing: In a post-pandemic world, U20 2023 can priorities the role of urban mental health to raise awareness of its bearing as a consequence of an overpowering-built environment Urban amenities must account for the improvement of the overall quality of life and social-emotional well-being.
    • Emphasizing on efficient data and policies: U20 2023 can create a primer for effective data collection, analysis, monitoring, and reporting for timely assessment or urban plans to align with G20 and national agendas. Going further, India must emphasize policies for efficient data use and supporting data governance.
    • Increasing efficiency of digital services and bridging the digital divide gap: Digital literacy in urban India is only at 61 percent, suggesting a pervading low awareness of the government’s e-services. Moreover, gender biases in technology and digital skills lead to a greater gender digital divide suggesting a huge disparity in access to digital services. New regulatory frameworks are needed to encourage research and investment in bridging such gaps.
    • Gender inclusive planning to develop equitable cities: U20 2023 can call for global collaborations to develop equitable cities by engaging in dialogues around gender-inclusive planning. This is not only to benefit women and children but to include representation of diverse marginalised genders and LGBTQ+ persons in the urban planning process.
    • Prioritizing capacity building and training for city planners: It is also essential to highlight the importance of capacity building and training for planners and civic officials about the various sensitivities and impacts of urban development plans. India can bolster global joint discussions around increased investment in urban healthcare facilities.
    • Boosting investment in sustainable energy transition: While delivering on the Paris Agreement and the New Urban Agenda and 2030 Agenda, India can reinforce direct investment in areas such as sustainable energy and mobility transition. For instance, managing the risks of urban flooding in a changing climate has become a global focus area for policymakers.
    • Investing in quality education and skill development: With cities bourgeoning, investing in quality education and skilling has become critical to better prepare for the future of work and jobs for. Policies, across sectors, must support better skilling and training for entrepreneurship. For example, while the PM Employment Generation Programme and other Credit Support Schemes support MSMEs for training the youth and generating employment, we are yet to see their effectiveness and outreach. On the other hand, the rising trend of the gig economy demands innovative policymaking to accommodate the aspirations of the urban youth.
    • Local participation must be enhanced: Most importantly, U20 2023 can reinforce the importance of local-regional involvement for the integration of perspectives at the national and sub-national government bodies as the way forward. Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) can be strengthened further to facilitate basic infrastructure needs, inclusive economic growth and equitable development.

    G20

    How India can lead?

    • India’s theme of G20 2023 holds the promise of interconnectedness to bring in an attitudinal change through deliberation, partnerships, dialogues, cooperation and knowledge-sharing.
    • India can lead the way for global response and action by setting the stage for newer partnerships and agreements to facilitate community empowerment and social justice at both the local and societal levels.
    • By stressing on equity, inclusivity, sustainability and resilience, U20 2023 will be able to honour its commitment to establish better cities.

    Conclusion

    • By exploring the interlinkages and shared issues related to urban planning, India can help pave the way to bring about a global consensus for renewed urban vigour.

     

  • SAARC vs BIMSTEC

    SAARC

    Context

    • December 8 is commemorated as SAARC Charter Day. It was on this day, 37 years ago, that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), an intergovernmental organization, was established.

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    What is SAARC?

    • Establishment: The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established with the signing of the SAARC Charter in Dhaka on 8 December 1985.
    • Members: It is an intergovernmental organization, was established by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Afghanistan acceded to SAARC later.
    • Secretariat: The Secretariat of the Association was set up in Kathmandu on 17 January 1987.
    • Objectives: The objectives as outlined in the SAARC Charter are, to promote the welfare of the peoples of South Asia and to improve their quality of life; to accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region and to provide all individuals the opportunity to live in dignity and to realize their full potentials; to promote and strengthen collective self-reliance among the countries of south Asia.

    What SAARC has achieved?

    • SAARC has failed abjectly in accomplishing most of its objectives.
    • South Asia continues to be an extremely poor and least integrated region in the world.
    • The intraregional trade and investment in South Asia are very low when compared to other regions such as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Sub-Saharan Africa.
    • Pakistan has adopted an obstructionist attitude within SAARC by repeatedly blocking several vital initiatives such as the motor vehicles agreement, aimed at bolstering regional connectivity.
    • Deepening hostility between India and Pakistan has made matters worse. Since 2014, no SAARC summit has taken place leaving the organisation rudderless, and practically dead.

    SAARC

    But why to bother about SAARC?

    • South Asia is important for India’s national interest: Because South Asia, that is India’s neighbourhood, is important for India’s national interests. This is best captured in the current government’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.
    • SAARC, a pan south Asia reach: SAARC is the only intergovernmental organisation with a pan-South Asia reach. India can judiciously employ it to serve its interests in the entire region.
    • Weakened SAARC means heightened instability: A weakened SAARC also means heightened instability in other promising regional institutions such as the South Asian University (SAU), which is critical to buttressing India’s soft power in the region.

    Bilateralism or regionalism, which one is best for India?

    • Bilateralism can complement, not substitute regional efforts: A new narrative is that in South Asia, India can successfully use the instrument of bilateralism over regionalism to pursue its interests. While bilateralism is undoubtedly important, it can at best complement, not substitute, regional or multilateral efforts.
    • Regionalism in East Asia and Africa: Regionalism has brought immense success in other parts such as East Asia and Africa. Regionalism can deliver prosperity in the South Asian region too, especially because multilateralism is weakening.
    • concept of new regional economic order: Looking at ASEAN’s spectacular success in regional integration, international lawyers Julien Chaisse and Pasha L. Hsieh have developed the concept of a new regional economic order, a process through which developing countries search for a trade-development model, based on incrementalism and flexibility; this is different from the neoliberal model laid down by the Washington Consensus.

    SAARC

    What is BIMSTEC?

    • Regional organization of seven members lying in or adjacent to BOB: The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization comprising seven Member States lying in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal constituting a contiguous regional unity.
    • Establishment: This sub-regional organization came into being on 6 June 1997 through the Bangkok Declaration.
    • Act as a bridge between South and South East Asia: The regional group constitutes a bridge between South and South East Asia and represents a reinforcement of relations among these countries.
    • Provides Inter regional cooperation platforms: BIMSTEC has also established a platform for intra-regional cooperation between SAARC and ASEAN members.

    Did you Know?

    • BIMSTEC comprises five South Asian nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, India and Sri Lanka) and two ASEAN countries (Myanmar and Thailand).
    • Pakistan is NOT a BIMSTEC member.

    Importance of BIMSTEC for India

    • India shifted its diplomatic energy from SAARC to BIMSTEC: In recent years, India seems to have moved its diplomatic energy away from SAARC to BIMSTEC. This resulted in BIMSTEC, after 25 years, finally adopting its Charter earlier this year.
    • BIMSTEC is better than SAAC charter: The BIMSTEC Charter is significantly better than the SAARC Charter. For instance, unlike the SAARC Charter, Article 6 of the BIMSTEC Charter talks about the ‘Admission of new members’ to the group. This paves the way for the admission of countries such as the Maldives.
    • However no flexible formula like ‘ASEAN Minus X’: Notwithstanding the improvements, the BIMSTEC Charter, to boost economic integration, does not contain the flexible participation scheme of the kind present in the ASEAN Charter. This flexible scheme, also known as the ‘ASEAN Minus X’ formula, allows two or more ASEAN members to initiate negotiations for economic commitments. Thus, no country enjoys veto power to thwart economic integration between willing countries.
    • Obstructionist attitude of Pakistan within SAARC: Given the experience of SAARC, where Pakistan routinely vetoes several regional integration initiatives, it is surprising that BIMSTEC does not contain such a flexible participation scheme. A flexible ‘BIMSTEC Minus X’ formula might have allowed India and Bangladesh or India and Thailand to conduct their ongoing bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations under the broader BIMSTEC umbrella. This would have eventually strengthened BIMSTEC by enabling the gradual and incremental expansion of these binding commitments to other members. India should press for this amendment in the BIMSTEC Charter.

    Some steps to take

    • BIMSTEC should not end up as another SAARC: For this, its member countries should raise the stakes. A high-quality FTA offering deep economic integration, something that Prime Minister Narendra Modi also advocated at the last BIMSTEC ministerial meeting would be an ideal step.
    • India should try make the organizations flexible to ensure peace and prosperity in the region: Likewise, India should explore legal ways to move successful SAARC institutions such as SAU to BIMSTEC. These steps will give stronger roots to BIMSTEC and enable erecting a new South Asian regional order based on incrementalism and flexibility, ushering in prosperity and peace in the region.

    Conclusion

    • Since South Asia cannot repudiate regionalism, reviving SAARC by infusing political energy into it and updating its dated Charter will be an ideal way forward. However, in the current scenario, this is too idealistic. So, the next best scenario is to look at other regional instruments such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

    Mains Question

    Q. India seems to have shifted its diplomatic energies away from SAARC to BIMSTEC in recent years. What are the reasons for doing so?

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  • The soft approach: India-Myanmar

    Myanmar

    Context

    • On November 20-21, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra made a two-day visit to Myanmar. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a press release stated that he met with members of the military junta that is currently ruling the country and discussed security and stability in the border areas, human trafficking issues (several Indian nationals have been victims), and infrastructure development.

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    Myanmar

    What are the interpretations over the foreign Secretary’s visit?

    • Myanmar’s national portal says discussion on friendly relations: According to Myanmar National portal, the two sides held discussions on Myanmar-India friendly relations, exchanged views on the promotion of bilateral cooperation and the implementation of Myanmar’s peace process.
    • India’s no mention of Myanmar’s return to democracy: The MEA statement made no mention of any Indian interest in seeing Myanmar return to the path of democracy or the release of political prisoners and other tricky issues.
    • Emphasis on completing the ongoing projects: On the contrary, the foreign secretary spoke about continued Indian support for “people-centric socio-economic developmental projects” and early completion of connectivity projects including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway between India, Myanmar, and Thailand.
    • Assured development Programs: It appears that infrastructure and developmental projects were a big emphasis during the visit because Kwatra also assured the Myanmar junta about projects under Rakhine State Development Program and Border Area Development Program.
    • Contradictory omissions: Despite the MEA press release not mentioning it, the MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi tweeted that the foreign secretary had discussions on several important issues including “India’s support to democratic transition in Myanmar.”

    Myanmar

    Background of the different interpretations

    • MEA’s 2021 statement that India’s interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy: Contrast this with the December 2021 statement that the MEA issued following then-Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s visit where he emphasized India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence.”
    • India’s strong and consistent support to ASEAN: He had also reiterated that India’s strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five point consensus.

    Myanmar

    What are the India’s concerns?

    • Human trafficking emerged as the major issue: Human trafficking has emerged as a major issue in Myanmar, with several criminal syndicates running a racket luring Indian citizens with fake job prospects. The MEA spokesperson, according to media reports, cautioned Indian nationals of being wary of trafficking. IT companies recruiting Indian workers in the pretext of jobs in Thailand, who were then taken to Myanmar. There have been reportedly close to 200 Indian nationals who have been duped into this job racket.
    • China’s support to Military Junta: Since the military coup, China has improved on its good relations with the military junta, providing much-needed support for the Myanmar leadership in the face of international opprobrium.
    • Chinas’ high investment in Myanmar: China reportedly has been a key source of foreign investment in Myanmar. China’s multiple projects include several high-speed railway lines and dams as well as a $2.5 billion investment in a gas-fired power plant. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which consists of oil and gas pipelines and infrastructure development projects run into billions of dollars.
    • China’s aim to get better access to Indian ocean: Of particular interest to China is the deep sea port that China plans to develop at Kyaukphyu, on Myanmar’s west coast, this will possibly give China better access to the Indian Ocean, which China has been eyeing for a while.
    • Budding relationship between Myanmar and Pakistan a cause of concern: According to media reports, Myanmar took the delivery of six JF-17 light-weight multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan in 2018 after signing a contract two years earlier in 2016. Myanmar was to get another batch of 10 aircraft although the date of delivery is unknown.

    Rational behind India’s changed interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy

    • Pragmatism on account of the growing presence and inroads of China in Myanmar has possibly pushed India to give up on its moralizing about democracy and increase its outreach to Naypyidaw.
    • While the pro-democracy elements within Myanmar as well as India’s strategic partners in ASEAN may not be particularly pleased with this outreach, especially India dropping ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, it appears that New Delhi sees itself as having not too many choices

    Conclusion

    • Strategic factors appear to be driving India’s greater engagement with the military junta, especially fear of China and Pakistan making inroads into the country. India has to maintain delicate balance while dealing with the ruling military junta.

    Mains question

    Q. In the backdrop of much speculations about the recent visit of India’s foreign secretary to Myanmar. Discuss India’s evolving position, which shows a soft approach towards the ruling military junta.

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  • The ‘Global South’ Narrative

    south

    As India assumed the presidency of the G20 group of countries for 2022 to 2023, EAM S Jaishankar said on December 1 that India would be the voice of the Global South that is otherwise under-represented in such forums.

    What is ‘Global South’?

    • The term has since been used multiple times, such as when Jaishankar said of ongoing global conflicts, “polarisation may occur elsewhere, the people who suffer most are the Global South”.
    • ‘Global North’ refers loosely to countries like the US, Canada, Europe, Russia, Australia and New Zealand, while ‘Global South’ includes countries in Asia, Africa and South America.

    Behind the binary difference: ‘Global North’ and the ‘Global South’

    • For a long time in the study of international political systems, the method of categorising countries into broad categories for easier analysis has existed.
    • The concepts of ‘East’ and ‘West’ is one example of this, with the Western countries generally signifying greater levels of economic development and prosperity among their people.
    • Eastern countries were considered as being in the process of that transition.

    What are other such categorizations?

    • Another similar categorisation is of First World, Second World and Third World countries.
    • It referred to countries associated with the Cold war-era alliances of the US, the USSR, and non-aligned countries, respectively.
    • The idea of the “third” world underlined that it was not only different from the “first” — the capitalist West — but also and the second — the socialist “East”.

    Concept behind: World Systems Approach

    • At the centre of these concepts is the World Systems approach introduced by sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein in 1974, emphasising an interconnected perspective of looking at world politics.
    • He said there are three major zones of production: core, peripheral and semi-peripheral.
    • The core zones reap profits, being the owners of cutting-edge technologies – countries like the US or Japan.
    • Peripheral zones, on the other hand, engage in less sophisticated production that is more labour-intensive.
    • In the middle are countries like India and Brazil.

    Need for new terms

    (1) Global shift of powers

    • In the post-Cold War world, the First World/Third World classification was no longer feasible.
    • This is because when the Communist USSR disintegrated in 1991, most countries had no choice but to ally at some level with the capitalist US – the only remaining global superpower.

    (2) Monolithic classification

    • The East/West binary was seen as often perpetuating stereotypical thinking about African and Asian countries.
    • Categorising incredibly diverse countries into a monolith was felt to be too simplistic.
    • Also, the idea that some countries were ‘developed’ while others were not was thought to be too wide a classification, inadequate for accurately discussing concerns.

    (3) Issues with Developed vs. Developing

    • Writing in 2014 from the perspective of his organisation’s philanthropic activities, Bill Gates said of the ‘developing’ tag.
    • It found an irony that- any category that lumps China and the Democratic Republic of Congo together confuses more than it clarifies.
    • Some so-called developing countries have come so far that it’s fair to say they have developed.
    • A handful of failed states are hardly developing at all. Most countries are somewhere in the middle.

    Emergence of Global South

    • Colonial past: A big commonality between the South countries is that most have a history of colonization, largely at the hands of European powers.
    • No say since de-colonization: Region’s historical exclusion from prominent international organizations – such as from the permanent membership of the UN is intriguing.
    • Consciousness for decision-making: As bodies like the UN and the IMF are involved in major decision-making that affect the world in terms of politics, economy and society, the exclusion is seen by these countries as contributing to their slower growth.
    • Economic emergence: China and India have emerged economically sound in the past two decades.
    • Declining US hegemony: Many consider the world to now be multipolar rather than one where the US alone dominates international affairs.
    • Climate reparations: In the ongoing debate adds Northern countries paying for funding green energy, having historically contributed to higher carbon emissions.

    Criticism of the classification

    • Only few players: South simply aims to replace the North and the positions it occupies, again continuing a cycle in which a few countries accumulate crucial resources.
    • More of a India vs. China competition: Much controversy currently surrounds the question of whether elites of the global South and ‘rising powers’ genuinely have the intention to challenge the dominant structures of global capitalist development”.
    • Anti-china motive: China’s tentative “going out” strategy at the turn of the century eventually morphed into the expansive Belt and Road Initiative.

    Where does India stand?

    • No further diplomatic groupism: EAM S Jaishankar India’s objective is not to rebuild a global trade union against the North.
    • Bridging the divide: India is eager to become a bridge between the North and the South by focusing on practical outcomes rather than returning to old ideological battles.

    Challenges

    • Political consistency: In the past, India’s ideological enthusiasm for the Global South was not matched by material power and political will.
    • Bridging the neighbours: India must also come to terms with the fact that the Global South is not a coherent group and does not have a single shared agenda.
    • Despaired south: There is much differentiation within the South today in terms of wealth and power, needs and capabilities.
    • Defiance from NAM: India’s Third World strategy (and Non-Aligned Movement) in the Cold War era was undermined by multiple internal and regional conflicts within the Global South.

    Way ahead

    • More engagement in neighborhood: Championing the Global South today would demand more active Indian engagement with the messy regional politics within the developing world.
    • Political coherence: If India can translate this ambition into effective policy, there will be no contradiction between the simultaneous pursuit of universal and particular goals.

     

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  • Price cap on Russia’s Oil and India’s contextual response

    cap

    Context

    • Recently, G7 proposal to impose a price cap on Russian oil came into effect. The proposal, which took months to fructify, seeks to achieve a delicate balance how to starve the Russian state of oil revenues so as to financially cripple its war against Ukraine, but without causing supply disruptions in the global oil market which would cause prices to spiral. The move, however, risks fracturing the global crude oil market.

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    What is Price cap on Russian oil?

    • The $60 per barrel and denial of infrastructure services to Russian oil: The $60 per barrel cap is intended to cut Russia’s oil revenues while keeping Russian crude on the market by denying insurance, maritime services, and finance provided by the Western allies for tanker cargoes priced above a fixed dollar-per-barrel cap.
    • Aim to hurt Russia’s oil revenue and create a pressure: The US-proposed cap aims to hurt Moscow’s finances while avoiding a sharp oil price spike if Russia’s oil is suddenly taken off the global market.
    • Impact on shipping: Without insurance, tanker owners may be reluctant to take on Russian oil and face obstacles in delivering it.

    cap

    Russian response to the price cap

    • Russia refused to abide by the measure: Russia has said it will not observe a cap and will halt deliveries to countries that do.
    • Retaliate by shutting off the shipments: It could retaliate by shutting off shipments in hopes of profiting from a sharply higher global oil price on whatever it can sell around the sanctions.
    • Russia said price cap will not hurt financing the war: Russia recently said that the cap would not hurt the financing of its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
    • Others buyers may bypass the restrictions putting countries interests first: Buyers in China and India might not go along with the cap, while Russia or China could try to set up their own insurance providers to replace those barred by US, UK and Europe. It is also possible that these countries will find creative ways to bypass the restrictions imposed by the G7.

    cap

    How impacts global oil supply chain?

    • Russian oil can now only be shipped using G7 countries infrastructure: Broadly speaking, Russian oil can now be shipped across the world using the infrastructure of the G7 countries tankers, insurers, etc only if it is sold at a price of $60 per barrel or less.
    • Higher price for buying oil from Russia: This makes buying oil from Russia at a higher price in the week prior to this announcement, Urals crude was trading in the mid-$60s range  a difficult proposition as most of the companies that offer shipping and insurance services are located in these G7 nations.
    • Countries wish to buy are at disadvantage but still not higher than brent crude oil: While Russia has refused to abide by this measure, and the cap will place countries that do opt for buying oil from Russia at a price higher than $60 at a disadvantage, it will still be at a considerable discount compared to Brent crude oil which is currently trading at around $81 per barrel.
    • Countries that continued trade despite of objections: So far, despite objections from western nations, countries like India and China have continued to trade with Russia.

    cap

    India’s response and the bilateral trade with Russia

    • India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high: In fact, as reported in this paper, India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high in the first five months of the year (April-August).
    • India putting its interests first and taking advantage of discounted price: Putting its interests first, India has raised its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of the discounts being offered the country which used to import less than 1 per cent of its import requirement from Russia, now imports around a fifth from it.
    • As India is an oil importer, the trade at discounted price will give some relief in current account deficit and economic stability: After all, for an oil importer like India, which meets an overwhelming share of its requirements through imports, lower crude oil prices will moderate the price pressures in the economy and bring relief to the current account deficit, easing risks to macroeconomic stability.
    • India rejected the so-called moral duty: India has rejected any “moral” duty to join the price cap coalition.

    Conclusion

    • Attempts to use trade as a weapon will only distort the global market and hurt energy-poor consumers not responsible for the war. India’s response so far to the West’s retaliation against Russia for the war in Ukraine has been guided by its sovereign interests. This must continue to be the guiding principle.

    Mains Question

    Q. G7 recently imposed a price cap on Russian oil driven by US and west. In light of this Discuss how it disrupt the global oil supply chain and how India is responding?

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  • China reiterates ‘No First Use’ Nuke Policy

    China responded to a US report alleging a major build-up in Beijing’s nuclear capabilities. It said, it adheres to its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

    What is the news?

    • The Pentagon released an annual China security report that warned Beijing would likely have 1,500 nuclear.
    • China currently has 350 nuclear warheads.
    • As of 2022, Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads compared to 5,428 in the US inventory.

    What is ‘No First Use’ Doctrine?

    • In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, NFU is a commitment to never use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances, whether as a pre-emptive attack or first strike, or in response to non-nuclear attack of any kind.

    Where do nuclear-armed countries stand on No First Use?

    • China is the only nuclear-armed country to have an unconditional NFU policy.
    • India maintains a policy of NFU with exceptions for a response to chemical or biological attacks.
    • France, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the UK and the US maintain policies that permit the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict.
    • Israel does not acknowledge the existence of its nuclear arsenal so has no publicly known position.

    Why advocate for global NFU commitments now?

    • The world after US bombing of Japan has never faced any crises that could escalate to nuclear conflict.
    • In addition to the precarious situation on the Korean peninsula, we’re running acceptably high risks of nuclear weapons use between-
    1. NATO and Russia: Amid ongoing Ukrainian Invasion
    2. India and Pakistan: Jihadist acquiring nuclear weapons
    3. US and China: Due to provocations over the South China Sea and Taiwan
    • In fact right now the chances that nuclear weapons will be used — intentionally, accidentally, or due to miscalculation — are the highest they’ve been since the worst days of the Cold War.
    • Establishing global NFU would immediately make the world safer by resolving uncertainty about what a nuclear-armed country might do in a crisis.
    • It removes pressure and incentive for any one country to “go nuclear” first in a crisis and thus create a moral obligation on others.

    Consequences of nuclear war

    • Any use of a nuclear weapon would invite massive retaliation.
    • Not to mention the horrific aftermath of nuclear war.
    • A 2014 study shows that so-called “limited” nuclear war in South Asia, in which 100 nuclear weapons are used, would have global consequences.
    • Millions of tons of smoke would be sent into the atmosphere, plunging temperatures and damaging the global food supply.
    • Two billion people would be at risk of death by starvation.

    What lies ahead?

    • Global No First Use would be an important step toward making nuclear weapons irrelevant to national security.
    • These policies would strip nuclear weapons of value in the eyes of military planners, enable future nuclear disarmament negotiations, and accelerate the dismantling of these weapons.
    • It would also serve as a “confidence-building measure” that establishes greater trust among nuclear-armed countries.
    • It thus makes it easier to work together to reduce nuclear risks and ultimately eliminate all nuclear weapons.

     

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  • In news: China Indian Ocean Region Forum

    china

    China’s top development aid agency convened the first “China-Indian Ocean Region Forum” in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming.

    What is the China Indian Ocean Region Forum?

    • It is organised by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA).
    • It is the latest Chinese initiative focusing on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
    • It underlines Beijing’s growing strategic interests in a region where its economic footprint has been deepening.

    What is it about?

    • The CIDCA is China’s new development aid agency similar to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
    • It aims to-
    1. Strengthen policy coordination,
    2. Deepen development cooperation,
    3. Increase resilience to shocks and disasters, and
    4. Enhance relevant countries’ capacity to obtain economic benefits through use of marine resources such as fisheries, renewable energy, tourism, and shipping in a sustainable way

    Which countries have backed the forum?

    • The organisers have said the forum was attended by high-level representatives and senior officials from 19 countries.
    • But at least two of those countries, Australia and Maldives, subsequently released statements rebutting the claim, emphasising that they did not participate officially.

    Why such a move by China?

    China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean have been motivated by three factors-

    • Gaining significance of Indo-Pacific: As the new world order unveils around the Indo-Pacific, Beijing aims to challenge other major powers, such as India, and establish its hegemony.
    • Domestic energy security: Beijing needs the Indian Ocean to ensure its energy security and continue fuelling its growth, which defines its foreign policy and international leverage.
    • Hegemony establishment: Establishing new and alternative institutions with IOR countries helps China display its presence and influence from the China Sea to the Indian Ocean, reflecting its status as a significant power.

    How is China perceiving its interests?

    1. Political corruption: Beijing has cultivated close and personal relationships with political elites and parties of IOR countries, usually through corruption, party funding, and by turning a blind eye to their human rights abuses and democratic infirmities.
    2. Fractionalization: Friendship with different political parties in Pakistan; bonhomie with the Rajapaksa clan in Sri Lanka, and close relations with Maldives’ Abdulla Yameen are some examples of this widespread phenomenon.
    3. Elite capture: In addition, China has often used the elite capture tactic to ensure a pro-China policy and bag geo-economically and strategically significant projects. This includes concessions on Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port City project.

    Where does India stand?

    • India was the lone absentee in the forum ignoring the invitation.
    • China has exposed its intention with the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) countries.
    • New Delhi has viewed China’s recent moves in the region warily, including the recent visit of a Chinese military tracking vessel, the Yuan Wang 5, to Sri Lanka.
    • Moreover, India sees the Indian-Ocean Rim Association (IORA) as an already established platform for the region.

    China’s plans for the IOR

    • The forum has underlined China’s stepped-up interest in the IOR, where it is already a major trading partner for most countries and where sea routes lie vital to China’s economic interests.
    • The CIDCA forum is the latest initiative to reflect Beijing’s view that it has a clear stake in the region, and that more such initiatives are likely.

    Has China out-powered India in the IOR with this move?

    • The Chinese initiative looks like a kind of delayed response.
    • It can be seen only as a comparison and competitor to India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), as outlined by PM Modi in Mauritius in 2015.
    • The Indian idea is implemented through the nation’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and such other initiatives as ‘‘Project Mausam’ and ‘Integrated Coastal Surveillance System’ (now shared with Maldives).
    • All of them are confined to the Indian Ocean, where India too belongs legitimately, unlike China.

    Conclusion

    • In a way, the new initiative reflects China’s unending greed.
    • It also reflects China’s desire and ambition to measure up to the US in reach and outreach, and through them, geo-economics, geopolitical, and geostrategic comparability.

     

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  • North East as Gateway to Indo-Pacific Strategy

    Indo-Pacific

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    Context

    • India’s ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ policies have moved into the phase of Indo-Pacific policy and strategy. But what we in the national capital interpret as the ‘Indo-Pacific’ is different from the perceptions of this policy in North-eastern and eastern India.

    What is Indo-pacific?

    • The Indo-Pacific is geographic region interpreted differently by different countries.
    • For India, the geography of the Indo-Pacific stretches from the eastern coast of Africa to Oceania whereas, for US, it extends up to the west coast of India which is also the geographic boundary of the US Indo-Pacific command.

    Indo-Pacific

    Importance of North-East

    • Security of India: The Northeast which comprises seven ‘sisters’ or States and one ‘brother’, Sikkim, has been witnessing transformation as it heads towards better security conditions and development
    • Geography and Biodiversity: North-eastern Indian States are blessed with a wide range of physiographic and ecoclimatic conditions and the geographical ‘gateway’ for much of India’s endemic flora and fauna.
    • Siliguri corridor only connecting link: North-East is home to 3.8% of the national population and occupies about 8% of India’s total geographical area. Siliguri corridor, a narrow strip of land in West Bengal, popularly known as “chicken’s neck” connects this region to the rest of mainland India.

    Present condition of north east

    • Improved security: Security conditions have improved significantly since 2017. However, the core issues behind the insurgency have remained unresolved.
    • Serious non-traditional threats: A notable contrast in security assessments of the authorities and others came to the fore. The official perspective was that the pernicious phenomena of smuggling, drug trafficking, transnational border crime, insurgent activity, and the influx of refugees (from Myanmar) represented serious non-traditional threats.
    • Chinese hand in nefarious activities: China was viewed as a ‘constant player’ behind these nefarious activities. This has necessitated vigilance and strict action by the Assam Rifles and other security agencies.
    • Sensitive border management: The insensitive handling of those engaged in lawful exchanges with the neighbouring countries. A balanced view indicates that considerable scope exists for more effective and people-sensitive border management in the future.

    Development as priority in North East

    • Rising road infrastructure: The Northeast is on the right path to concentrate on economic development. More is awaited through improvement in roads linking north-eastern towns and job creation for thousands of graduates produced by local universities.
    • Hub of medical tourism: Manipur needs to be promoted as the hub of medical tourism for other Indian States and neighbours such as Myanmar.
    • Investment needs to increase: The State’s research and development facilities to leverage the region’s biodiversity should be expanded. Accelerated development requires increased investment by Indian corporates and foreign investors as well as better management.
    • Blueprint for economic development: Strategic and business community to contribute to crafting a concrete blueprint for leveraging opportunities relating to commerce, connectivity, and human capital development.

    Cultural diplomacy from North east

    • Showcasing the culture of north east: An ambitious endeavour by 75 artists from nine countries highlighted the region’s ‘unity in diversity’ through music, dance, drama, and cuisine.
    • Education, tourism and trade: Clearly, expanding the reach of cultural diplomacy and people-to-people cooperation through greater educational exchanges, tourism, and trade is desirable.
    • Regional cooperation through cultural exchange: Harsh Vardhan Shringla, former Foreign Secretary, aptly stressed that the “shared culture, history and mutual social threads that tie the region with India also an important component towards fostering regional cooperation”.

    Indo-Pacific

    Cultural dimension to Indo-Pacific

    • Geo-cultural dimension: At Kolkata, intellectuals and performers in the cultural domain from India, the U.S., Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh reflected on the Indo-Pacific construct’s cultural dimensions. Moving beyond geopolitics and geo-economics, neighbors should focus on “the geo-cultural dimension” of the Indo-Pacific.
    • Expanding people to people cooperation: Diplomats from the region agree on the importance of expanded people-related cooperation which would lead to wider acceptance of the Indo-Pacific and consolidation of the Quad.

    Conclusion

    • While implementing India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, voices from Northeast and eastern India must be heard. Thus, beyond ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ lies ‘Think and Relate East’, especially within our own country.

  • G20: Setting the World Agenda Through Task Forces

    G20

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    Context

    • India’s G20 presidency began on December 1. It will be driven by the underlying vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, best encapsulated by the motto “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. As the main “ideas bank” of the G20, the activities and deliberations of the Think20 (T20) engagement group of the G20 are spread over seven task forces.

    Task force on “Macroeconomics, trade, and livelihoods”

    • Create Coherence in monetary and fiscal policy: It has the mandate to make recommendations on coordination within the G20 to create coherence in monetary and fiscal policy, trade, investment, and supply chain resilience.
    • Recover together, recover stronger: The aim is to give further impetus to the initiatives taken by the Indonesian presidency to “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” in the post-pandemic period.
    • Consensus on international trade: With supply chain resilience emerging as a common concern against the backdrop of ineffective WTO mechanisms, the G20 has assumed the mantle as the most significant platform to forge consensus among the top 20 economies on international trade policy.

    G20

    Task force on “Digital Futures”

    • Digital infrastructure: It will endeavour to build an inclusive digital public infrastructure to ensure affordability and safe access by all.
    • Interoperability of Digital services: It will discuss the universal interoperability of digital services. It will also address issues of digital financial inclusion and skills, both integral to economic growth.

    Task force on “LiFE, Resilience, and Values for Wellbeing”

    • Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE): The LiFE initiative aims to put the individual at the centre of the discourse and to sensitise every human being, regardless of nationality and geography. If individuals become more conscious of their lifestyle choices and act more responsibly, it can make a huge difference.
    • Contribution of all: The focus on LiFE is a timely initiative given the fact that the deleterious effects of climate change on the economy and livelihood are felt the most by the vulnerable countries around the world.

    G20

    Task force on “Green transitions”

    • Refuelling growth: Growth will be the aim of the task force on green transitions as it recommends pathways for a smooth transition to clean energy without compromising on efforts for global economic revival in a post-pandemic world.

    Task force on the “Global financial order”

    • Restructuring the financial institution: It will examine the potential for realigning the global financial architecture. The challenge today is to restructure institutions in accordance with contemporary economic needs, including for infrastructure.
    • Finance and resource mobilization: Greater access to development finance and resource mobilisation through innovative methods is of key importance.

    Task force on “Accelerating SDGs”

    • Sustainable collaboration: It will explore new pathways to deliver on the 2030 agenda through strengthened and sustainable collaboration.
    • Focus on circular economy to reduce waste: Given the earth’s finite resources, a shift towards a circular economy and deliberate and mindful consumption is likely to reduce waste and help build a virtuous cycle for development.

    Task Force on “Reformed Multilateralism”

    • Road map for Multilateralism 2.0: It will seek to create a roadmap for “Multilateralism 2.0”. A targeted reform agenda for key multilateral institutions, whether the United Nations or its affiliated frameworks such as the WHO, WTO and the ILO, must be undertaken.
    • Representative world order: With sincere efforts, the global community can look forward to the birth of a more representative and egalitarian multipolar world order from the chrysalis of the G20.

    G20

    Conclusion

    • The year ahead is an opportunity for India to share its values to world. Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, the guiding canon for India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vaccine Maitri, places higher human values above narrow nationalism. It is an approach that is expected to permeate all aspects of India’s G20 Presidency.

    Mains Question

    Q. What are the different task forces created under India’s G20 presidency? Briefly explain the role of different task forces.

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  • Russia postpones with US under New START nuclear treaty

    Russia postponed nuclear weapons talks with the United States under the New START Treaty with neither side giving a reason for the postponement.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    Background of US-Russia Nuclear Relations

    • The US formally QUIT the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
    • The agreement obliged the two countries to eliminate all ground-based missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

    When did nuclear disarmament begin?

    • In 1985, the two countries entered into arms control negotiations on three tracks.
    • The first dealt with strategic weapons with ranges of over 5,500 km, leading to the START agreement in 1991.
    • It limited both sides to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads.
    • A second track dealt with intermediate-range missiles and this led to the INF Treaty in 1987.
    • A third track, Nuclear, and Space Talks was intended to address Soviet concerns regarding the U.S.’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) but this did not yield any outcome.

    Success of INF

    • The INF Treaty was hailed as a great disarmament pact even though no nuclear warheads were dismantled.
    • As it is a bilateral agreement, it did not restrict other countries.
    • By 1991, the INF was implemented. USSR destroyed 1,846 and the US destroyed 846 Pershing and cruise missiles. 
    • Associated production facilities were also closed down.
    • INF Treaty was the first pact to include intensive verification measures, including on-site inspections.

    How has the nuclear behavior been?

    • With the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the USSR in end-1991, former Soviet allies were joining NATO and becoming EU members.
    • The U.S. was investing in missile defense and conventional global precision strike capabilities to expand its technological lead.
    • In 2001, the U.S. announced its unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).
    • The US also blamed Russia for not complying with the ‘zero-yield’ standard imposed by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This may indicate the beginning of a new nuclear arms race.

    Implications of the New Start

    • The 2011 New START lapsed in 2021. It may meet the fate of the INF Treaty.
    • The 2018 NPR envisaged the development of new nuclear weapons, including low-yield weapons.
    • China is preparing to operate its test site year-round with its goals for its nuclear force.
    • CTBT requires ratification by U.S., China, and Iran, Israel and Egypt and adherence by India, Pakistan and North Korea. It is unlikely to ever enter into force.

    Conclusion

    • A new nuclear arms race could just be the beginning. It may be more complicated because of multiple countries being involved.
    • Technological changes are bringing cyber and space domains into contention. It raises the risks of escalation.

     

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