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Subject: International Relations

  • China-India: Facilitating an Asian Century

    China

    Central idea

    • China’s recent developments in steady growth, people’s well-being, opening up, and win-win cooperation, as well as its willingness to strengthen communication and coordination with India, can provide new opportunities for all countries in the world, especially neighbouring countries. importance of China-India relations and their role in facilitating an Asian Century.

    China’s focus areas of development 

    • Modernization: China is currently advancing modernization in all fronts, based on its practices, and a focus on high-quality development.
    • Overall development: The country aims to modernize its huge population, ensuring common prosperity for all, material and cultural-ethical advancement, harmony between humanity and nature, and peaceful development.
    • New opportunities: China’s development will create new opportunities for all countries, especially neighbouring countries.

    China

    The development of China in recent years

    1. Steady Growth:
    • In 2022, China’s economy grew by 3%, and the country added a total of 12.06 million urban jobs.
    • The country’s GDP increased to 121 trillion yuan (approximately $18 trillion), registering an annual growth rate of 5.2% over the past five years and an annual growth of 6.2% over the past decade, with GDP increasing by nearly 70 trillion yuan.
    • China’s economic strength is steadily reaching new heights.
    1. People’s Well-being:
    • China has historically resolved absolute poverty, with the alleviation of close to 100 million rural residents from poverty.
    • Over 70% of the government’s expenditure went toward ensuring people’s well-being.
    • Basic old age insurance covers 1.05 billion people, an increase of 140 million. Living standards continue to witness new improvements.
    1. Opening Up:
    • In 2022, China’s total volume of trade in goods exceeded 40 trillion yuan, registering an annual growth rate of 8.6%.
    • China’s actual use of foreign capital was up by 8%, and the country remained one of the top destinations for foreign investors.
    • The overall tariff level continues to fall, from 9.8% to 7.4%. China’s doors to the outside world are opening even wider.
    1. Win-Win Cooperation
    • In the period 2013-2021, China’s contribution to global economic growth averaged 38.6%, higher than that of G7 countries combined (25.7%).
    • More than 100 countries have expressed their support, and over 60 countries have joined the Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative (GDI) since Chinese President, Xi Jinping, proposed it in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in 2021.

    China

    China-India Relations

    • Emerged as Representatives: As neighboring and ancient civilizations, China, and India are representatives of developing countries and emerging economies.
    • National rejuvenation: Both countries are currently in the process of national rejuvenation and a crucial period of modernization where challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be solved.
    • Interests than differences: China and India have far more common interests than differences.

    China- India Trade

    • China and India are important trading partners, with bilateral trade volume reaching $135.984 billion in 2022.
    • Although there is a trade deficit, India’s import of equipment and materials from China reduces the overall cost of Made-in-India products, benefits Indian downstream industries and consumers, enhances the competitiveness of Indian exports, and in turn facilitates India’s integration into global industrial and supply chains.

    China

    Facilitating an Asian Century

    • Chinese Foreign Minister recently stated that the development and revitalization of China and India embody a boost to the force of developing countries, which will change the destiny of a third of the world’s population and have a bearing on the future of Asia and beyond.
    • This echoes what India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had expressed in 2022 that the Asian Century will happen when China and India come together.

    Conclusion

    • China’s development and its relationship with India are important for the region and the world. Both countries are in the process of modernization and face challenges that need to be overcome. China and India are important trading partners, and their cooperation can facilitate an Asian Century and contribute to peace and stability in the region and beyond.

    Mains Question

    Q. Provide your insights on the role of China and India in shaping the destiny of the developing countries and their impact on the future of Asia and beyond

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  • What is the McMahon Line?

    McMahon

    Central idea: Republican and Democrat senators introduced a resolution in US Congress reiterating that the US recognises the McMahon Line as the international boundary between China and India in Arunachal Pradesh.

    Significance of such move

    • This resolute confirms US (both ruling and opposition) stand with India at a time when China poses a threat to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
    • The resolution reaffirms India’s position that Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls ‘South Tibet’, is an integral part of India.

    What is the McMahon Line?

    • The McMahon Line serves as the de facto boundary between China and India in the Eastern Sector and represents the boundary between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet.
    • China disputes the boundary and claims the state of Arunachal Pradesh as part of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR).

    Under what circumstances was the McMahon Line drawn?

    • The McMahon Line was drawn during the Simla Convention of 1914, officially described as the Convention between Great Britain, China, and Tibet.
    • The British led an expedition into Tibet and signed the Convention of Lhasa in 1904, alarmed at the growing Russian influence in the region.
    • China invaded at the same time, taking control of the southeastern Kham region and pushing British officials to advocate extending British jurisdiction into the tribal territory.
    • The convention attempted to settle the question of Tibet’s sovereignty and avoid further territorial disputes in the region.

    What happened at the Simla Convention of 1913-14?

    • The Tibetan government in Lhasa was represented by its plenipotentiary Paljor Dorje Shatra, and Britain by Sir Arthur Henry McMahon, foreign secretary of British India at Delhi.
    • The Chinese plenipotentiary was Ivan Chen.
    • The treaty divided the Buddhist region into “Outer Tibet” and “Inner Tibet” and determined the border between China proper and Tibet as well as Tibet and British India.
    • The final convention was only signed by McMahon on behalf of the British government and Shatra on behalf of Lhasa.
    • Ivan Chen did not consent to the convention, arguing that Tibet had no independent authority to enter into international agreements.

    How was the border between British India and China decided?

    • The 890-km border from the corner of Bhutan to the Isu Razi Pass on the Burma border was drawn largely along the crest of the Himalayas, following the “highest watershed principle”.
    • However, exceptions were made, such as Tawang, which was included in British India due to its proximity to the Assam Valley.

    What has the status of the McMahon line been since 1914?

    • While there were disputes regarding the McMahon line from the beginning, after the communists took power in 1949, they pulled China out of all international agreements.
    • The McMahon line was not mentioned during the Bandung Conference of 1955, which was held in Indonesia and saw Asian and African leaders agree to a common stand against colonialism and the Cold War.
    • However, the Chinese have recently raised the issue of the McMahon line, and in 2017, Beijing officially renamed six places in the Arunachal Pradesh region, including the disputed area of Tawang.
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  • India-Italy Flourishing Relations

    Italy

    Central Idea

    • The recent summit between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Italy and India. It also marked a significant turning point in the relations between the two countries, as they have established a strategic partnership for the first time.

    Italy

    Highlights of the current visit of PM Meloni

    • Now strategic partners: India and Italy have decided to elevate the ties to the level of strategic partnership and identified defence as one of the areas where they can start a new chapter.
    • Boost to startups: The meet led to the establishment of a ‘Startup Bridge’ between India and Italy.
    • Bilateral defence exercise: Another important area of mutual cooperation is defence. They also decided to organise joint military exercises and training courses on a regular basis.
    • Enhance people’s mobility: India and Italy also signed a Declaration of Intent on migration and mobility and inked a memorandum of understanding between Rabindra Bharati University, Kolkata, and Italian Consulate General; and Morarji Desai Institute of Yoga and Sarva Yoga International, Italy.

    India-Italy Flourishing Partnership

    • Bilateral Trade: Italy and India have intensified their collaboration in recent years, resulting in a record figure of around 15 billion euros in 2022, doubling the figure recorded in 2020.
    • Five-Year Action Plan: In 2020, a five-year action plan was adopted with a well-defined range of priorities including energy transition, food processing, advanced manufacturing, creative industry, and infrastructure.
    • Multilateral Initiatives: Italy has joined all the multilateral initiatives promoted by India, from the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to the Coalition for Disaster Relief Infrastructure (CDRI), to the International Solar Alliance.
    • Cultural Collaboration: Italy and India have enhanced their collaboration in the cultural field, from the heritage front to the creative industry, including fashion, design, cinema, etc.
    • Scientific Research and Technology: The partnership between the two countries has registered the launch of 13 new joint projects in scientific research and technology.
    • Mobility: In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the flow of Indian students and workers in Italy, where an Indian community that exceeds a figure of 2,00,000 is already actively operating in the Italian economy.
    • Health Sector: During the pandemic, Italy and India collaborated by exchanging experiences and practices, with humanitarian initiatives and promoting joint research projects.
    • Strategic Partnership: The Joint Declaration approved in the last summit affirms the commitment of the two governments to develop a strategic partnership that will also focus on sectors such as defence, cybersecurity, space, and energy.
    • Indo-Pacific and Enlarged Mediterranean: A connection was identified between the Indo-Pacific and the enlarged Mediterranean where Italy is a front-line player in terms of energy security, investments, and commerce.
    • Support for G20 Presidency: Italy offered full support to the Indian Presidency of the G20, contributing around issues that were at the centre of Italy’s G20 Presidency in 2021.
    • Ukraine Conflict: Italy and India will be engaged in trying to find a cessation of the conflict in Ukraine.
    • European-Indian Strategic Partnership: Both the Prime Ministers expressed their commitment to enhancing the European-Indian strategic partnership and their support for the ongoing negotiations for Free Trade Agreements and agreements on investment protection and geographical indication protection.

    What makes Italy a crucial partner for India?

    • Economic Cooperation: Italy is one of the largest economies in the European Union and is home to several global corporations. India has a growing economy, and both countries have strong economic ties.
    • Trade and Investment: Italy is the 13th largest investor in India with around 700 Italian companies having a presence in India. Italian companies are investing in various sectors in India, including infrastructure, energy, automotive, and textiles.
    • Cultural Ties: India and Italy share a rich cultural heritage, and their cultural ties go back centuries. Both countries have a long history of art, literature, music, and architecture. Italy is known for its classical art, and India is renowned for its rich cultural diversity.
    • Strategic Cooperation: Both have a shared vision of a multi-polar world order, and are committed to promoting peace and security. Both countries work closely on global issues such as climate change, counter-terrorism, and UN reform.
    • People-to-People Contacts: Italy and India have a significant number of people-to-people contacts, with a large Indian diaspora in Italy. There are over 150,000 people of Indian origin living in Italy, and they contribute significantly to the cultural, social, and economic fabric of the country. The growing tourism sector is also promoting more significant people-to-people contacts between the two countries.

    Italy

    Conclusion

    • The strategic partnership between Italy and India is based on respect for international law, freedom of navigation, and territorial integrity. It aims to strengthen bilateral relations and focus on sectors such as defence, cybersecurity, space, and energy. In these challenging times, the two countries aim to give a strong impulse to their relations based on the common recognition of the value of true friendship and solidarity.

    Mains Question

    Q. What are the key highlights of the recent visit of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to India, and how does it mark a significant turning point in the relations between Italy and India? Also Discuss the factors that make Italy a crucial partner for India.

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  • Australia to buy US nuclear submarines under AUKUS

    aukus

    Australia will buy up to 5 US nuclear-powered submarines and build a new model with US and British technology under the AUKUS.

    AUKUS: A Backgrounder

    • This new partnership is known as AUKUS and the major highlight of this arrangement is the sharing of US nuclear submarine technology with Australia.
    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia thereby giving it a nuclear heft in the Pacific where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • Apart from this AUKUS will also involve the sharing of cyber capabilities and other undersea technologies.
    • This alliance is considered to be most significant security arrangement between these three nations.

    Ripples created by AUKUS

    (A) US shift of focus

    • AUKUS is both an acknowledgment of and a concession to the loss of US strategic primacy.
    • It gives justification for the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan — to be able to better focus on the strategic rivalry and trade competition with China.

    (B) Resentment in the EU and France

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US. France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop.
    • France has even ordered the recall of its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra.

    (C) Chinese offensive reception

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    (D) Confusion among the SE nations

    • The new great power contestation might actually generate much room for the Southeast Asian states to manoeuvre, as they are wooed simultaneously by China, AUKUS, and the Quad.
    • They realise that AUKUS is a challenge to the hallowed notion of “ASEAN centrality”, a totemic rhetorical device which seeks to have others acknowledge its relevance.

    Why such an alliance?

    (A) Deteriorating China-AU relations

    • Tensions have been high between Australia and an increasingly assertive China, its largest trade partner.
    • Australia banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei in 2108 and its PM called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year.
    • China retaliated by imposing tariffs on or capping Australian exports.

    (B) US act of counterbalancing

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.

    (C) Bringing Australia at the centrestage of Indo-Pacific

    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.

    Exactly, How?

    • To go from a diesel-electric fleet to a nuclear fleet is thus a change of strategy, not just of propulsion.
    • It provides a way to project power from the shipping lanes which feed the all-important Malacca Strait to the waters off Taiwan.
    • Add on the capacity to launch much longer-range missiles—a submarine could deliver missiles to China’s mainland while sitting to the east of the Philippines—and the country has a greatly expanded offensive capacity.

    AU: Another US Base

    • If Australia’s strategic stance is changed by the deal, so is America’s.
    • Since the Second World War the US has projected power across the region called as an archipelago of empire.
    • There are the island bases from Hawaii in the east to Guam, Okinawa in Japan and, in the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, leased from Britain without the consent of its natives.
    • In Australia, America has now, in effect, a beefed-up continent-sized base for its own operations as well as a reinvigorated ally.

    Outcomes of AUKUS

    (A) Offensive front against China

    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    (B) India as a bridge in Anglosphere

    • The transatlantic fissure has also pointed to something inconceivable—that India could emerge as a potential bridge between different parts of the West.
    • Our PM was on the phone with French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirming India’s strong commitment to the Indo-Pacific partnership with France.
    • India’s solidarity with France at a difficult moment is rooted in New Delhi’s conviction that preserving the West’s unity is critical in shaping the strategic future of the Indo-Pacific.

    (C) Exposed Chinese double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    Implications on QUAD

    • Not superseding: This alliance does not and will not supersede or outrank existing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region such as the Quad, which the US and Australia form with India and Japan, and ASEAN.
    • Complimentary to QUAD: AUKUS will complement these groups and others.

    Opportunities for India

    While the Quad and Washington’s Indo-Pacific pivot generate much interest and anxiety, it is easy to forget that the two ideas are, in essence, about India.

    • India’s role has enhanced: Balancing China is the challenge confronting the United States, and Washington has recognized that India is an indispensable part of the answer.
    • Just another alliance: New Delhi has no reason to complain if Australia, Britain, and the United States raise the military capabilities of their coalition. The submarine deal is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration.
    • Intimidating China: The introduction of nuclear-powered submarine through AUKUS has a complicating impact on the Chinese maritime calculus. Anything that maintains a balance of power in the region is desirable.
    • Focusing inside on land border: AUKUS also leaves India with a less of a headache in securing its maritime flank from Chinese aggression and New Delhi may focus more fully on the threat emanating from the land border with China.

     

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  • What is the Moscow-dominated security pact ‘CSTO’?

    Central idea: Armenia’s PM accused the Moscow-dominated security alliance Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) of leaving Armenia in the cold amid renewed hostilities with Azerbaijan.

    What did Armenia say?

    • Armenia has repeatedly criticized the CSTO for its failure to protect itself.
    • Russia has maintained a delicate diplomatic balancing act between Armenia and Azerbaijan, avoiding any forceful action.

    What is CSTO?

    • The CSTO is a Russia-led military alliance of seven former Soviet states that was created in 2002.
    • Current CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. Afghanistan and Serbia hold observer status in the CSTO.
    • Its purpose is to ensure the collective defense of any member that faces external aggression.
    • It has been described by political scientists as the Eurasian counterpart of NATO, which has 29 member states, while the CSTO has just six.

    Outlined functions of CSTO

    • CSTO supports arms sales, manufacturing, and military training and exercises, making the CSTO the most important multilateral defense organization in the former Soviet Union.
    • Beyond mutual defense, the CSTO also coordinates efforts in fighting the illegal circulation of weapons among member states and has developed law enforcement training for its members in pursuit of these aims.

    What does CSTO membership provide?

    • While CSTO membership means that member states are barred from joining other military alliances, limiting, for example, their relationship with NATO.
    • Its members receive discounts, subsidies, and other incentives to buy Russian arms, facilitating military cooperation.
    • Most importantly, membership presumes certain key security assurances – the most significant of which is deterring military aggression by third countries.
    • In the CSTO, aggression against one signatory is perceived as aggression against all.
    • It however remains unclear whether this feature works in practice.

    Armenia’s Concerns and Threats

    • The PM emphasizes the threat of escalation along Armenia’s border and in Nagorno-Karabakh, citing increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Azerbaijan.
    • Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan increased in December when Azerbaijani protesters blocked the Lachin corridor, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh residents short of food and basic supplies.

    Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

    csto

    • Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces since a separatist war in 1994.
    • In 2020, Azerbaijani troops routed Armenian forces in six weeks of fighting.
    • They claimed a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh and nearby areas which had been in Armenian hands for nearly two decades.

    Back2Basics: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

    • NATO was established in the aftermath of the Second World War.
    • Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union.
    • It is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.
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  • Explained: Understanding the Saudi-Iran Reconciliation

    iran

    Central idea: Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of West Asia’s major powers that have been at odds with each other for decades, agreed to restore diplomatic relations last week in an agreement brokered by China.

    Saudi-Iran Ties: A timeline

    • Pre-1979: Saudi Arabia and Iran compete for regional dominance.
    • 1979: Iranian Revolution brings down the monarchy and turns Iran into a Shia theocratic republic.
    • 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war sees Saudi Arabia support Iraq.
    • 1990-1991: Saudi Arabia supports Iraq against Iran in the Gulf War.
    • 1996: Iranian-backed Hezbollah bombs Saudi military housing complex in Khobar, killing 19 US soldiers.
    • 2011-2015: Saudi Arabia and Iran support opposing sides in the Syrian civil war.
    • 2015: Saudi Arabia launches military intervention in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
    • January 2016: Saudi Arabia executes prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, leading to protests in Iran and the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
    • 2016: Saudi and several Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Iran.
    • 2019: Saudi oil facilities are attacked, leading to increased tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
    • 2021: Both begin direct talks, brokered by China.
    • March 2023: Both nations announce an agreement to restore diplomatic ties, brokered by China.

    Reasons for hostile relations

    The hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran has its roots in a complex mix of historical, geopolitical, religious, and ideological factors.

    • Religious contradictions: Historically, the rivalry between the two countries dates back to the seventh century when the Prophet Muhammad died without a clear successor, leading to a dispute over the leadership of the Muslim community. This dispute ultimately resulted in the split between Sunni Islam (which dominates in Saudi Arabia) and Shia Islam (which dominates in Iran).
    • Geopolitical tensions: The two countries are located in a strategically important region, with both seeking to exert influence and maintain dominance in the Middle East. Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979 posed a challenge to Saudi Arabia’s status as the leading Islamic power in the region, and the two countries have been competing for regional influence ever since.
    • Sectarian tensions: Saudi Arabia and Iran have long had competing visions for the role of Islam in society. Saudi Arabia promotes a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism, while Iran supports Shia Islam and the principle of the “Guardianship of the Jurist,” which asserts that a senior Shia cleric should have political power and authority over all Muslims.
    • Ties with west: The two countries have fundamentally different views on a range of issues, including democracy, human rights, and regional security. Saudi Arabia is a conservative monarchy with close ties to the United States, while Iran is an Islamic republic that has been at odds with the West since the 1979 revolution.

    All these factors have contributed to the ongoing hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the tensions between the two countries continue to have a destabilizing effect on the region.Top of Form

    What are the terms of the agreement?

    • The details of the agreement are yet to be unveiled.
    • Iran has reportedly agreed to prevent further attacks against Saudi Arabia from Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen while Saudi Arabia has agreed to rein in Iran International, a Farsi news channel critical of the Iranian regime.
    • Foreign Ministers of both countries will meet soon to thrash out the terms of the reconciliation before reopening embassies in each other’s capitals in two months.
    • China is planning to host a cross-Gulf conference of Iran and the six Gulf monarchies to further strengthen peace in the region.

    Why did Saudi Arabia reach out to Iran (defying the US)?

    Ans. Iran’s Rise, and Changing Alliances

    • Internal Security: When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019, the US looked away, prompting the Saudis to look for alternative solutions for the Iran problem, such as reaching out to the Iranians.
    • Differences over Palestine: The US was trying to broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to bring the two pillars of its West Asia policy together against Iran.
    • US negligence of West Asia: The US deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges, such as the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Obsolesce of ties with US: Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US have been rocky in recent years, as the US is not as dependent on Gulf Arabs as it used to be during the Cold War.
    • Shared opinions over Israel: Saudi Arabia has been hesitant to reconcile with Israel, and its relations with the US have been rocky in recent years.

    What led Iran to accept the deal?

    • Isolation and Domestic pressure: Tehran is aware that getting relief from Western sanctions is not a near-term possibility. Despite crackdown, protests in Iran refuse to die down.
    • Crumbling economy: Iran’s economy is deteriorating and its currency, the rial, is struggling. A deal with Saudi Arabia, under China’s mediation, could open economic lifelines for Iran
    • China factor: Iran wanted Chinese investments and support for the rial. China allowed Iran to withdraw parts of the $20 billion funds frozen with Chinese banks due to US sanctions.
    • Fouling American efforts: Iran knows that such a deal could complicate American efforts to rally Arab countries and Israel against it. A reconciliation with Saudi is beneficial for Iran, at least in a tactical sense.

    Why is China brokering the deal?

    • Securing its oil supplies: China has an interest in promoting stability in the Middle East region, which is a major source of oil and natural gas for China.
    • Side-lining the US: By brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China can position itself as a mediator and gain goodwill from both sides.
    • Create alternative axis: China has longstanding relationships with both countries. The US since Trumps departure is distancing itself from the US, whereas China is also getting closer to Russia amid the war.
    • Image building as a leader: While the US is busy rallying the Western world to arm Ukraine to push back Russia and weaken Moscow through sanctions, China is quietly brokering peace in the Global South.

    US reception of this deal

    • Welcomed the move: The public narrative is that the peace deal would help stabilize the region and benefit the global energy market.

    Key implications for the US

    • Hegemony decline: The US would not like to lose its influence in West Asia even when it is deprioritizing the region.
    • Saudi drifts away: US sees an ally (Saudi Arabia) drifting further away, a rival it wanted to contain (Iran) making new friends, and China spreading and deepening its influence in a region the US has dominated historically.
    • Iran Sanctions going loose: The Iran nuclear deal is practically dead and the US wants Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel and put up a joint front against Iran.

    What inferences can be drawn from all these?

    • Strategic realignments in West Asia: It can be inferred that West Asia is currently undergoing significant strategic realignments, with the UAE normalizing relations with Israel and other Arab countries deepening their partnerships.
    • Shifted US focus on Ukraine and Indo-Pacific: The US, which traditionally held significant power in the region, has deprioritized West Asia due to bigger foreign policy challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific.
    • China occupying power vacuum: This deprioritization has created a power vacuum that has allowed Iran to rise as a challenge, prompting the US to try to bring Israel and the Arab world together against Iran.

     

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  • Iran- Saudi rivalry: China’s role and India’s Concerns

    Saudi

    Central Idea

    • In an unexpected turn of events on March 10, the National Security Advisors of Iran and Saudi Arabia declared, in the presence of Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi in Beijing, that they have come to a mutual understanding to address their issues, and will reopen their embassies within a span of two months.

    Background: Iran- Saudi rivalry

    • Since January 2016, when the Saudi kingdom severed diplomatic ties with Iran after the attack on the former’s embassy in Tehran, the two countries have been engaged in a rivalry for regional geopolitical influence, prolonging conflicts in Yemen and Syria.
    • Only a few months ago, Iran’s top military officials were threatening Saudi Arabia with consequences unless it controlled its Persian-language media outlets zealously covering anti-government protests in Iran. Riyadh had raised alert levels citing a credible threat of attack from Iran.

    Iran’s Strategic Partnership with China

    • Iran considers China its most important strategic partner, and was alarmed when the joint statement issued at the first China-GCC Summit in Riyadh in December 2022 called on Iran to maintain the non-proliferation regime and respect the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of states.
    • The China-brokered agreement coming a month after Raisi’s visit to Beijing shows how Beijing has successfully leveraged its ties with an Iran struggling with domestic pressure, sanctions, and deteriorating ties with Europe over its military support to Russia.

    The Dialogue Process

    • The Iran-Saudi Security Dialogue: This refers to the ongoing talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia aimed at improving security in the region, particularly in Yemen. These talks were facilitated by then-Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi in 2021, and have continued in fits and starts since then.
    • Biden Administration’s Conflict Management Measures: The Biden administration has taken steps to end American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arm sales, as a conflict management measure. This move helped to make Riyadh see the logic of dialogue with Iran.
    • Chinese Role in Brokering the Final Agreement: China has played a key role in brokering the final agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Beijing has adopted a balanced approach of strengthening ties with all players based on common interests and mutual respect rather than geopolitical alignments with specific countries.
    • China’s Growing Regional Engagement: China’s growing regional engagement in the Middle East is driven by its desire to distinguish itself from the US-led interventions in the region. Beijing has supported Gulf countries in setting up multilateral dialogue platforms and taking the initiative in regional issues, including those involving Iran.

    What are India’s concerns?

    • Impact on India’s Energy Security: Any improvement in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could impact India’s energy security. India is heavily dependent on oil imports from both countries, and any conflict or tension between them could lead to disruptions in oil supplies and increased prices.
    • Potential for regional destabilization: The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has fueled conflicts in the Middle East, including the ongoing war in Yemen. Any escalation of tensions between the two countries could lead to further destabilization in the region, which could have implications for India’s security interests.
    • China’s growing influence in the Middle East: China’s role in brokering the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia highlights its growing political capital in the region, which could have implications for India’s strategic interests. India has traditionally maintained good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and any shift in the regional balance of power could impact India’s interests.
    • Impact on India’s Chabahar port project: India has invested heavily in the development of the Chabahar port in Iran as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Any improvement in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could impact India’s plans for the port, which could have implications for India’s strategic interests in the region.

    Conclusion

    • India will now have to deal with the new reality where China has been able to translate its economic influence in West Asia into diplomatic heft. The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have positive implications for the region’s stability, but India will need to carefully monitor the evolving dynamics and assess how it can leverage its own relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other regional players to secure its strategic interest.

    Mains Question

    Q. Evaluate China’s growing influence in the Middle East and its impact on India’s traditional ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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  • Ukraine Conflict: Implications And The Danger Of Provoking A World War

    Ukraine

    Central Idea

    • The Ukraine conflict has significant implications for Europe and the world. It has demonstrated that the US is the true defender of Europe and highlighted the fragile state of Europe’s defence industry. The conflict has also given the US confidence to take on all challengers, leading to new ambitions in Western minds. While the conflict has taught several important lessons, the wrong lessons could also be derived, which could prove to be dangerous in the long run.

    What is the Present Situation?

    • While acknowledging the bravery of the Ukrainian people, significant efforts are underway in Europe, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, to end the ongoing war.
    • Given that neither side is poised for a decisive victory, it is highly unlikely that Russia will withdraw from the territories it initially occupied.
    • The initial enthusiasm has given way to a sense of exhaustion, and the conflict in Ukraine is increasingly being viewed as a US-backed NATO proxy war against Russia.
    • As a result, European leaders are currently focused on negotiating a ceasefire and ending the conflict rather than prolonging it.

    Implications of the war on Europe

    • Europe’s struggling economy: Despite receiving state-of-the-art weapons from the US, Europe remains at the mercy of NATO and the US due to its fragile defence industry. The prospect of a prolonged war without end is daunting for Europe’s struggling economy.
    • US as the True Defender of Europe: The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that the US is the true defender of Europe, with the people believing that without the US, Europe would not have come together to support Ukraine.
    • US Confidence and New Ambitions: The US’s success in Europe has fuelled new ambitions and the belief that momentum now lies with them. This could potentially lead to dangerous experimentation, with Ukraine and the war in Europe not being a laboratory for similar experiments elsewhere.
    • The Danger of Overconfidence and Misadventures: US triumphalism could lead to misadventures, as Ukraine and Europe cannot be a bellwether for what might happen in a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. China is not Ukraine or Russia, and Asia is not Europe.

    China’s strong Posture

    • China’s Direct and Harsh Language Against the US and Western Countries: China is accusing the US and other Western countries of engaging in the containment, encirclement, and suppression of China. China have openly accused the US of attempting to encircle China through its Indo-Pacific strategy, which they say is an Asia-Pacific version of NATO. China’s language is unusually direct and harsh, leading to concerns that China may be preparing for a direct confrontation with the US.
    • China’s Preparation for All Eventualities: China is preparing for all possible scenarios in response to the current situation. It has warned that no amount of guardrails can prevent derailment if the US continues to speed down the wrong path. China’s efforts are aimed at thwarting US attempts to restore its dominant position in world affairs.
    • Taiwan as the Flashpoint
    • Taiwan remains a flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific region, with tensions further aggravated by the recent visits of top US military leaders to Taiwan. However, newer tensions are also adding to the possibilities of a conflict in other regions in the Indo-Pacific.

    The danger of provoking a world war

    • Starting with a misreading or misunderstanding of the other side’s intentions, all wars can begin.
    • The success of the US in assisting Ukraine to withstand the Russian offensive and undercutting Russia’s image of being a superpower in Europe.
    • The success in Europe and the goal of returning to the post-1945 era may be the impetus for targeting China. This could lead to a direct confrontation with China and have disastrous consequences, possibly leading to a world war.

    Conclusion

    • The US is basking in the glow of its successful intervention in Europe and this could provoke retaliation, leading to the escalation of hostilities in other regions and potentially paving the way for another global conflict. Such an outcome would be a catastrophe of monumental proportions.
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  • Australia’s AUKUS Dilemma: Options and Challenges

    AUKUS

    Central Idea

    • The AUKUS security partnership between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom has important implications for Australia’s plans to operate a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, with potential drawbacks.

    What is AUKUS?

    • Trilateral Partnership: AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced on September 15, 2021. The partnership involves cooperation in various areas, including defence and security, technology, and climate change.
    • Indo-Pacific region a primary focus: The AUKUS partnership is primarily focused on the Indo-Pacific region and aims to counter China’s growing influence in the region. As part of the partnership, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom, which is seen as a significant shift in Australia’s defence posture.
    • Promote Peace and stability: The three countries have emphasized that the partnership is not aimed at any specific country and is intended to promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

    AUKUS

    Australia’s AUKUS Dilemma

    • AUKUS Pathway Impact: Announcement about optimal pathway for AUKUS has implications for Australia’s plans to operate a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines
    • Opposition from Regional Partners: Regional partners oppose Royal Australian Navy operating nuclear attack submarines, posing a challenge for Australia’s deterrence capabilities against potential adversaries

    What are the Options for Australia’s Nuclear Submarines?

    • Following AUKUS consultations, three main options have emerged,
    1. US builds nuclear-powered attack submarines for Australia
    2. UK expands Astute-class program to Australia
    3. Trilateral effort to develop a new nuclear submarine design

    AUKUS

    What are the Challenges and Complexities for Australia’s Nuclear Submarines

    • US uncertain on Australis’s nuclear subs: US Policymakers are sceptical about building nuclear-powered attack submarines for Australia due to national security concerns
    • UK’s Dreadnought hinders Australia’s submarine expansion: UK’s construction of Dreadnought-class ballistic-missile submarine program and differences between Australian and American fleets pose a challenge for expanding Astute-class program to Australia
    • Nuclear design challenges: Trilateral effort to develop a new nuclear submarine design faces challenges related to U.S. export controls and technology transfer agreement
    • Nuclear tech complex and risky globally: The nuclear technology is complicated under the international system and poses potential proliferation risks.

    AUKUS

    The AUKUS Partnership: Implications for India

    • Increased security cooperation: The partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States is likely to lead to increased security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. This could help to balance out China’s growing military and economic power in the region and could create opportunities for India to work more closely with these countries on shared security concerns.
    • Potential for technological collaboration: AUKUS includes cooperation in technology and could lead to opportunities for India to collaborate with the three countries in areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cybersecurity. This could help to bolster India’s technological capabilities and could lead to new opportunities for trade and investment.
    • Impact on regional dynamics: The announcement of AUKUS could have a significant impact on regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in terms of how other countries in the region respond. India will need to carefully navigate these dynamics and ensure that its own interests are protected.

    Conclusion

    • The AUKUS security partnership has significant implications for Australia’s defence capabilities and strategic positioning in maritime Asia. However, it poses significant challenges and risks. Even with its closest allies, the U.S. faces difficulties transferring technology, highlighting the challenges for India and other countries in acquiring critical technology from the U.S. The AUKUS developments may have broader implications for regional security and nuclear technology.

    Mains Question

    Q. Evaluate the broader implications of the AUKUS developments for regional security and nuclear technology.

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  • Bhutan no longer a ‘Least Developed Country’

    bhutan

    Central idea: Bhutan will become the seventh country to graduate from the United Nations’ list of Least Developed Countries (LDC) on December 13, 2023.

    What is a Least Developed Country (LDC)?

    • The LDCs are developing countries listed by the UN that exhibit the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development.
    • The concept first originated in the late 1960s and was codified under UN resolution 2768 passed in November 1971.
    • According to the UN, an LDC is defined as “a country that exhibits the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development, with-
    1. Low levels of income, human capital and economic diversification,
    2. High levels of economic vulnerability, and
    3. A population that is disproportionately reliant on agriculture, natural resources, and primary commodities.

    Criteria for LDCs

    • The UN identifies three criteria for a country to be classified as an LDC:
    1. It must have a gross national income (GNI) per capita below the threshold of USD 1,230 over a three-year average.
    2. It must perform poorly on a composite human assets index based on indicators including nutrition, health and education.
    3. It must demonstrate economic vulnerability such as being prone to natural disasters and possessing structural economic constraints.
    • Countries must meet a selection from all three criteria simultaneously and are reviewed on a three-year basis by the UN.

    How many countries are LDCs?

    • Currently, the UN lists 46 countries that qualify as LDCs.
    • Of those, 33 are from Africa, nine from Asia, three from the Pacific and one from the Caribbean.
    • At the UN 2021 triennial review of LDC countries, the organisation recommended that Bangladesh, Laos, and Nepal be removed from the list.

    How does a country get off the LDC list?

    • To graduate from the LDC list, a country must meet certain criteria in the three areas stated before namely, income, human assets, and economic vulnerability.
    • A nation must have a GNI per capita of at least USD 1,242 for two consecutive triennial reviews in order to meet the income requirement.
    • The nation must also show that this level of income can be sustained over the long term.
    • A nation also must show that it has improved its ability to withstand external economic shocks like natural catastrophes or shifts in commodity prices in order to pass the economic vulnerability test.

    How did Bhutan get off the LDC list?

    • Bhutan was included in the first group of LDCs in 1971. It fulfilled the requirements for graduation in 2015 and 2018.
    • Bhutan’s economy grew more than eight times in the last 20 years, from under USD 300 million in 2000 to USD 2.53 billion in 2017.
    • The percentage of people living in poverty decreased from 17.8 per cent in 2003 to 1.5 per cent in 2017.
    • The percentage of people living below the national poverty line decreased from 23.2 per cent in 2007 to 8.2 per cent in 2017.

    What economic measures did it take?

    • Hydropower exports: Bhutan increased exports of hydropower to India, which now accounts for 20 per cent of its economy.
    • Brand Bhutan: Bhutan established Brand Bhutan to diversify exports and target high-end markets with specialised exports of high-value, low-volume Bhutanese goods from sectors including textiles, tourism, handicrafts, culture, and natural resources.
    • Tourism promotion: It emerged out to be an all-season tourist destination in South Asia.

    Advantages of being an LDC

    • LDCs enjoy duty-free and quota-free (DFQF) access to the markets of developed countries.
    • LDCs are also eligible for loans with special terms for development, which include loans with a lower interest rate and a longer repayment time than those given to other nations.
    • The term “Official Development Assistance” (ODA) or “aid” is frequently used to describe this form of support.

    Way forward for Bhutan

    • As such, advancing out of the list is often only the first step in overall development.
    • Graduation from LDC status is not the end of the road, but the beginning of a new journey.
    • It is a time when a country needs to redouble its efforts to build its productive capacities, diversify its economy, and create new opportunities for employment and income generation.

    Back2Basics: Defining a country’s ‘Development’

    • There are no WTO definitions of “developed” or “developing” countries.
    • Developing countries in the WTO are designated on the basis of self-selection although this is not necessarily automatically accepted in all WTO bodies.
    • The WTO however recognizes as least-developed countries (LDCs) those countries which have been designated as such by the United Nations.

     

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