Subject: International Relations

Context

• The G20, or Group of 20, has emerged as the primary venue for international economic and financial cooperation. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 on 1 December 2022, symbolising the motto and showcasing its philosophies of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.

What One Earth, One Family, One Future suggests?

• India committed to making India’s year of chairmanship one that will focus on “healing our ‘One Earth’, creating harmony within our ‘One Family’, and giving hope for our ‘One Future’ and LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).

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What is Troika?

• The troika means previous, current, and incoming presidency which comprise Indonesia, India, and Brazil, respectively.
• The troika is leading the global agenda at G20 in the current turbulent economic times.
• Beyond being a forum for policy discussions, the G20 plays the role of reconciling the irreconcilable.
• The number of talks and years the group has been together has resulted in a mixed bag of success.

How India should set up a global agenda: Proposed principles

• Democratising the process of setting the agenda: While setting up the global agenda, it is critical to bring together all the partner nations to understand their priorities. It will ensure diversity, equity, inclusivity, sustainability, transparency, and long-term commitment. This can also help ensure that the domestic policies are aligned and support global priorities.
• Strike a balance between the needs of developing and developed countries: Since India has a greater responsibility to shoulder, it should not work and seem biased. Similarly, developed nations should instead exercise greater caution with their rich resource pools. To create a win-win scenario rather than a zero-sum game, we must think in terms of multilateralism.
• Critical to focus on determined priorities: It is critical to prevent the G20 from suffering as other multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) do from an over-expansion of its mandate. While being ambitious in their approach, it is crucial to set defined, limited long-term priorities.
• Set concrete, measurable, and tangible goals: Measurable outcomes with short, medium, and long-term objectives are crucial. Financial considerations must be made in addition to ensuring inclusivity, sustainability, and accountability.
• Prevent reinventing the wheels: To encourage faster mutual growth, it is necessary to prevent duplication of efforts. It is important to prevent duplication of existing international institutions, fragmentation of financial resources, and the weakening of the coordinating role of the existing multilateral organisations. The ‘cooperative and collaborative frameworks are key to successful outcomes.
• Prejudice-free dialogues are required to promote solidarity: Prejudices on international platforms can pose a threat to global security. Dialogue as an antidote is a force for conflict prevention, management, and resolution.
• Mutual safeguarding is necessary: Mutual safeguarding from disguised elements of neo-colonialism and hegemony is essential for cutting through the socio-cultural and geopolitical barriers between the Global South and the Global North.
• The principle of Antyodaya (rise of the last person:): The global lens must capture every aspect of a community through inclusive dialogues, from the most marginalised to the most privileged. It is crucial to set the vertical and horizontal plans on a global and national level with the ‘last person standing in line’ in mind.

India’s current global Image

• India for global governance: While India’s successes are being assessed and unprecedented hopes are being expressed about our future, the country’s trust in the global governance architecture is evident through several examples from the recent past, like the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in India as well as remarkable vaccine diplomacy initiative ‘Vaccine Maitri’.
• Fastest growing economy: With one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, the country has earned its stripes during tough external and internal times.
• India among the tops in global climate change performance index: Similarly, India has been ranked among the top five countries under the global Climate Change Performance Index. Moreover, it has taken the lead in spearheading the transition towards cleaner energy sources.
• Social capitalism nature of economy: With its social capitalism, India has earned a geopolitical sweet spot in the world.

Conclusion

• India can lead the G20 agenda in a unique way the global community has never witnessed. Keeping the essential principles in mind when developing agendas, action-oriented plans, and decisions through collaborative efforts have the potential to yield revolutionary and positive results. The vision of shaping a new paradigm of human-centric globalisation is promising, provided the Global North and South communities provide equal support.

Mains question

Q. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 with a motto One Earth, One Family, One Future. In this backdrop how India can set up an agenda for future and not only for a period of presidentship.

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Context

• Japan, which invented the contemporary geopolitical idea of the Indo-Pacific, is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In his swing through Europe last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s message was simple, the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is indivisible.

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How Japan shaped the idea of Indo-pacific?

• Japan is not alone for Indo-pacific anymore: Building on the ideas of his predecessor, the late Shinzo Abe, Kishida is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe. Together Japan, South Korea and Australia are bridging the divide between Asia and Europe long seen as separate geopolitical theatres.
• South Korea raising profile in Europe: South Korea, which does not always see eye to eye with Japan, is also joining the party by raising its profile in Europe. for example, Seoul, is selling major weapons platforms in Poland.
• Australia eager to bring Europe in Indo pacific: Australia, which has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS arrangement, is equally eager to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific.
• Accelerated by Ukraine war: This process has been accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

The idea of Eurasia

• Many used it as a neutral term: The idea of Eurasia is not new, many used it as a neutral term to describe the vast landmass that connected Europe and Asia.
• Separate political spheres: Despite continental continuity, Europe and Asia emerged as separate political and cultural spheres over the millennia.
• Russia as European and Asian: Russia, which straddles this space, saw itself as both a European and Asian power but had trouble becoming a part of either. When post-Soviet Russia’s effort to integrate with the West soured in the 2000s, it developed Eurasia and Greater Eurasia as new geopolitical constructs.
• Putin’s Eurasian strategy: Consolidating the former Soviet space, restoring influence in Central Europe, building a strong alliance with China, and limiting Western influence in the continental heartland became part of Putin’s Eurasian strategy.

China-Russia alliance

• Altering geopolitical dynamics: Well before Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol turned to Europe, it was Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin who altered the geopolitical dynamic in Eurasia.
• Alliance without limits: Days before he ordered his armies into Ukraine, Putin travelled to Beijing last February to sign an agreement declaring an alliance without limits and no forbidden areas.
• China’s tilt towards Russia: China, which had made a largely successful effort to cultivate Europe since the 1990s, deliberately avoided taking sides in Europe’s conflicts with Russia. But on the eve of the Ukraine war, Xi chose to tilt towards Moscow by blaming NATO for the crisis in Ukraine.
• New kind of Eurasian alliance: Together, Putin and Xi unveiled a Eurasian alliance that they might have hoped would deliver the long-awaited coup de grace to the global hegemony of the West. What it did instead was to not only strengthen the Western alliance in Europe but also provide the basis for a new kind of Eurasia an alliance between China’s East Asian neighbours and Russia’s West European neighbours.

What are the Challenges for India?

• For India, the rise of Eurasia is making it harder to ride on two boats at the same time: Until now, India could easily hunt with the maritime coalition the Quad in the Indo-Pacific and run at the same time with the continental coalitions led by Russia and China.
• US Europe and Japan on the one hand and China, Russia on the other: The conflict between the US, Europe, and Japan on the one hand and China and Russia on the other is now acute and shows no signs of immediate amelioration.
• India’s security challenge on Himalayan frontier: On the downside, then, India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier and the tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing will mean the shadow over India’s continental strategy will become darker in the days ahead.
• Strategic capabilities in partnership: On the upside, the possibilities for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in partnership with the US and Europe as well as Japan, South Korea and Australia have never been stronger.

Opportunities for India may include

• Economic cooperation: Increased economic cooperation and trade between India and countries in Europe and Asia
• India’s larger role in global affairs: The potential for India to play a larger role in regional and global affairs as a result of increased connectivity and cooperation
• To address security concerns in Indo-Pacific: Opportunities for India to strengthen its ties with Japan and other countries in the region to address security concerns in the Indo-Pacific

Conclusion

• Japan’s strategy of promoting greater connectivity and cooperation between Europe and Asia could present both opportunities and challenges for India in terms of economic cooperation and geopolitical influence. India will have to carefully navigate and balance its relationships with various countries and groups in the region to maximize the opportunities and minimize the challenges.

Mains question

Q. Japan is now well on its way to changing the way we think about the relationship between Asia and Europe. In this backdrop discuss opportunities and challenges for India.

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Context

• The decision to invite President Abdel Fattah al Sisi of Egypt as the Chief Guest on Republic Day is an important gesture and should go a long way in imparting fresh momentum to India’s ties with the largest country in the Arab world.

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What makes Egypt a pivotal player?

• With a population of almost 110 million, a location that straddles Africa and Asia, a standing army that is the largest in the region, a capital that hosts the League of Arab States and a diplomatic presence that punches above its weight in global affairs, Egypt is a pivotal player.

Why Egypt matter to India?

• Close relationship immediately after Independence: It is a country with which India enjoyed an exceptionally close relationship in the first couple of decades after our independence.
• Shipping route: The Sumed pipeline runs from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea coast to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast in Egypt. It is an important sea route.
• Shared vision of NAM: The personal equation between PM Nehru and President Nasser was legendary and the two also became the stalwarts of the non-aligned movement during the Cold War of the 1960s.
• Joint fighter project: At the political level, the two countries were close enough for India to send clandestine arms shipments to Egypt during the Suez crisis in 1956 and contemplate nuclear cooperation and a joint fighter project in the 1960s.
• Indian literature in Egypt: It was a time when Mahatma Gandhi and Rabindranath Tagore were household names and their works were translated into Arabic by leading figures of Arab literature.

A drift for almost 30 years

• The two countries drifted apart Particularly during President Hosni Mubarak’s long innings from 1981 to 2011.
• According to diplomatic folklore, an apparently minor protocol gaffe over seating arrangements during the New Delhi NAM summit in 1983 was seen as a personal affront and it took all of 25 years before Mubarak could be persuaded to return to India in November 2008.

Growing ties and willingness to work together 

• Egypt showed its intent to work together: President Sisi came into power in 2014 and Egypt again showed its intent, first through his participation in the India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi in 2015 and again through a state visit in 2016.
• Back-to-back visits by India and emphasis on defence cooperation: Defence cooperation is clearly one of the themes and high-level exchanges over the last two years led to Desert Warrior, the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the air force of the two countries, with IAF sending five Mirage 2000 fighters and a refuelling aircraft to El Berigat Airbase in Egypt.
• Egyptian interest in India’s Tejas and Dhruv: The Egyptians have also shown some interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters, although this is still at a fairly preliminary stage.
• Cooperation to counter hostilities: Equally important is the behind-the-scenes support provided by them in countering hostile moves by Pakistan at forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and by refraining from making any adverse comment during the Nupur Sharma affair.
• Mutual goodwill: Both countries also demonstrated mutual goodwill by helping each other at crucial times over the last two years.
• Remdesivir supplied by Egypt to India: When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by dispatching three plane loads of medical supplies and providing 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021.
• India reciprocated by supplying wheat: India reciprocated a year later when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation following the abrupt halt in wheat shipments from Ukraine. The Indian response also paved the way for Egypt to visit India’s wheat growing areas and register India for regular wheat exports to the country.
• Bilateral trade is well below the potential but it is growing: Bolstered by these tailwinds, bilateral trade has grown by almost 75 percent last year to touch US$ 7 billion, although this is well below the potential, given the size of the two economies. But it is Egypt’s emerging investment scenario that offers a more interesting opportunity.

Current status of Egypt’s economy and India’s investment

• Egypt’s economy is struggling: Growth in the non-oil sector has been anaemic, foreign exchange reserves have dwindled and the Egyptian pound has been in free fall, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) administering a bitter dose of medicine to fix some of the problems.
• Economic and administrative reforms: After several abortive starts and forced by the gravity of the economic crisis, the Egyptian government finally seems to be getting serious about implementing both economic and administrative reforms
• Ease of doing business is welcomed by India: Indian companies have invested in Egypt and by and large, they have done well. Indian companies are positive in their feedback, with some saying quite candidly that after years of apathy, they are finally being heard and action is being taken to make ease of doing business a reality.
• Plan to develop Suez Canal Economic zone into global manufacturing hub: The ambitious plans to develop the Suez Canal Economic Zone into a global manufacturing hub are now gathering critical mass. Gurgaon-based ReNew Power seems to be the first off the blocks from India and has signed an agreement to set up a Green Hydrogen facility. It is clearly driven by attractive tax incentives, cheap and abundant land, 365 days of sun to produce the solar energy needed for the electrolysers, and the strategic location that makes it easy to access the European markets.

Way ahead to further improve the ties

• For India, a deeper economic engagement with Egypt therefore acquires an additional strategic imperative.
• While Egypt clearly needs to do more to market itself as an investment destination in India, it is also important for industry bodies like CII, FICCI and ASSOCHAM to take a more pro-active approach.
• ReNew Power has shown the way but it will need a joint government-industry initiative to acquire the scale needed to make an impact.

Conclusion

• For now, there are clear indications that India under Prime Minister Modi and Egypt under President Sisi may finally be moving towards achieving some of the potential in bilateral ties that has remained unfulfilled for the last four decades.

Context

• Japan’s National Security Strategy released in December is a remarkable document. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertive rise, and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK-North Korea) provocations are listed as key developments creating for Japan the most severe and complex security environment since the end of the Second World War.

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What are Japan’s new concerns?

• Chinese increasing military power: Unconstrained by bilateral or multilateral agreements, Chinese military power is noted as growing exponentially. In less than a decade, the Chinese nuclear arsenal would match numbers currently held by the US and Russia. Expectations are low that the US would have the will or the capacity to bring China to the arms control table.
• DPRK is riding a runaway proliferation train: Having shaken off all the limits to its nuclear programme it pretended to accept during the Trump Administration, its nuclear programme is perhaps now unstoppable.
• The inadequacy of its current defence posture and its military alliance with the US: As underlined by the document, extended deterrence including nuclear weapons is the cornerstone of the US-Japan alliance. Its success until now allowed Japan the luxury of its three nuclear no’s policy no production, possession, or introduction of nuclear weapons on its territory.

What worries Japan in its future adequacy and the options

• The stated option: The National Security Strategy calls for Japan to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of its alliance with the US, including extended deterrence by the US, backed by its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.
• Possibility trends of nuclear-sharing by Japan: The unstated part is the possibility of nuclear-sharing by Japan. If implemented, this may be new to Asia but is a long-standing US practice with its key NATO allies in Europe. US willingness to share nuclear-powered submarines with Australia as part of AUKUS is an indicator of possible trends.
• Possibility of Japan itself acquiring nuclear weapons: The document makes no reference to this. But there are references to the US – in Japan’s view the world’s greatest comprehensive power finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a free and open international order. Behind Japanese politeness, the message is clear.
• Strategic autonomy in Japanese style: Significantly, the document adds that Japan would seek to strengthen its defence capabilities to the point at which Japan is able to take primary responsibility for its defence, without excluding support from the US.

How India should view this development?

• If Japan goes nuclear, India should welcome the decision: In our separate ways, India and Japan privileged nuclear disarmament as a priority. But there comes a time when this national preference must be subordinated to the demands of national security.
• Understanding the reason: India reached this conclusion reluctantly but with good reason in 1998. If Japan were to reach the same conclusion, it too would have good reason to do so.
• Ensuring self-defence capabilities and Upholding the sovereignty: Its technological capabilities are not in doubt. It is for Japan to exercise its inherent and inalienable right of ensuring the necessary means of self-defence. Thinking the unthinkable in terms of changing policy is an attribute of sovereignty, not its negation.

Way ahead

• Japan’s turn towards an explicit nuclear option will come, if at all, not out of choice but out of necessity.
• Its strategic predicament, laid bare by the document, is compounded by the lack of easy answers, a predicament that India should view with sympathy and understanding of a fellow Asian country.
• Japan is also a strong supporter of the NPT, and its derivative non-proliferation regime but it is also painfully aware that the NPT does precious little to constrain China, nor for that matter DPRK.
• The gap between Japan’s security needs in a nuclearized world and its non-nuclear public sentiment was papered over in the past by US extended deterrence. It looks less likely that will be the case in the future.

Conclusion

• A multipolar Indo-Pacific can be truly multipolar only if Japan is assured of national defence through the means of its choosing. As a strategic partner and friend, we must keep faith that Japan will make the right decision at the right time.

Mains question

Q. Recently Japan released its National security strategy. In this backdrop discuss what concerns Japan and how India should view this development?

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