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Subject: International Relations

  • Defence and technology cooperation is key to US-India partnership

    Context

    The possibility of India’s continuing rise over this century seems to be on a stronger wicket today than it did a decade ago, marred as the early 2010s were by political instability and economic turmoil.

    Historical background of dominance of world economy by the East

    • Prior to the era of colonial exploitation followed by self-inflicted stagnation due to communist economic policies adopted across the region, the ancient civilisations of India and China dominated the world economy
    • There existed a deep history of scientific innovation and technological prowess, which spread by osmosis and intercourse from the East to the West.
    • The West, led principally by Great Britain, then stole a march over Asia with the advent of the Industrial Revolution.
    • Emergence of the US: A pyrrhic victory for Britain in the Second World War marked the formal transfer of the Western bloc’s leadership to the US.

    Geopolitics in 2020s

    • Emergence of China: China is now home to a manufacturing-led and technology-driven economy, competing head-on with the US in areas like biotech, robotics, artificial intelligence, and advanced materials.
    • India, which faced an economic setback when the liberalisation process largely came to a halt between 2004-2014, is back on its feet, with consistent commitment and concerted policy action focused on building domestic capabilities in critical technologies as well as in key manufacturing industries and pursuing important structural economic reforms.
    • Common threat of China: From seeing non-democratic China as a benign partner, the US now sees it as a threat, the present preoccupations in Europe notwithstanding.
    • India, which for a time welcomed Chinese involvement in its economy, has also recalibrated after the 2020 Galwan face-off.
    • Unlike India and the US, which are both well-established republics with deep democratic cultures, China is “a party with a state attached to it”.
    • Concerns for India:  Being inextricably linked by geography, Beijing’s ambition to dominate its periphery and proximate region is of particular concern to India.

    What this mean for India-US relations?

    • Natural allies: Given this background, India and the US are natural allies to confront the challenges posed by an expansionist and aggressive China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
    • New areas of cooperation: There are clear signals of unprecedented cooperation between the two countries in areas like national security, defence production and most prominently, new-age information technology and internet industries where American financial firms and blue-chip corporates are contributing growth capital as well as know-how.
    • Closer cooperation in scientific research and critical emerging technologies is imperative.
    • Reducing India’s dependence for defence equipment: In particular, as some American lawmakers highlighted when providing India with exemption under CAATSA that the American defence industry should contribute to reducing India’s dependence on Russian armaments and equipment.
    • Technology cooperation: Connected to the expansion of defence-industrial ties is the broadening of technology collaboration in areas like artificial intelligence, drones, advanced materials, space technology, semiconductors, and biotech in India, beyond the consumer tech and software sectors.

    Conclusion

    Demographic and economic trends firmly position India as a global force that will have the weight to stride alongside America and China, who would constitute the other two geopolitical — and ideological — poles over the 21st century.

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  • Monkeypox is ‘Public Health Emergency’

    The World Health Organization’s Director-General has declared monkeypox a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) July 23, 2022.

    What is PHEIC?

    Definition: Under the International Health Regulations (IHR), a public health emergency is defined as “an extraordinary event which is determined, as provided in these Regulations: to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease; and to potentially require a coordinated international response”.

    What criteria does the WHO follow to declare PHEIC?

    • PHEIC is declared in the event of some “serious public health events” that may endanger international public health.
    • The responsibility of declaring an event as an emergency lies with the Director-General of the WHO and requires the convening of a committee of members.

    Implications of a PHEIC being declared

    The PHEIC is the highest level of alert the global health body can issue.

    • There are some implications of declaring a PHEIC for the host country.
    • Only polio and SARS-CoV-2 were ongoing PHEIC prior to monkeypox.
    • Declaring a PHEIC may lead to restrictions on travel and trade.

    Back2Basics: Monkeypox

    • The monkeypox virus is an orthopoxvirus, which is a genus of viruses that also includes the variola virus, which causes smallpox, and vaccinia virus, which was used in the smallpox vaccine.
    • It causes symptoms similar to smallpox, although they are less severe.
    • While vaccination eradicated smallpox worldwide in 1980, monkeypox continues to occur in a swathe of countries in Central and West Africa, and has on occasion showed up elsewhere.
    • According to the WHO, two distinct clade are identified: the West African clade and the Congo Basin clade, also known as the Central African clade.

     

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  • Russia, Ukraine seal grain exports deal

    Kyiv and Moscow penned a landmark agreement with Turkey and the UN to unblock Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports after a Russian blockade raised fears of a global food crisis.

    What is the deal about?

    • The deal was agreed through UN and Turkish mediation.
    • It establishes safe corridors along which Ukrainian ships can come in and out of three designated Black Sea ports in and around Odessa.
    • Both sides also pledged not to attack ships on the way in or out.

    Why such move?

    • It will bring relief for developing countries on the edge of bankruptcy and the most vulnerable people on the edge of famine.
    • The five-month war has already displaced millions and left thousands dead.
    • It is being fought across one of Europe’s most fertile regions by two of the world’s biggest grain producers.
    • Up to 25 million tonnes of wheat and other grain have been blocked in Ukrainian ports by Russian warships and landmines Kyiv has laid to avert a feared amphibious assault.

    Why was the grain export deal signed?

    • Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, but Russia’s invasion of the country and naval blockade of its ports have halted shipments.
    • Some grain is being transported through Europe by rail, road and river, but the prices of vital commodities like wheat and barley have soared during the nearly five-month war.
    • Ukrainian and Russian military delegations reached a tentative agreement last week on a UN plan that would also allow Russia to export its grain and fertilizers.
    • Ukraine is expected to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war.

    What is the grain export deal?

    • The deal makes provisions for the safe passage of ships.
    • It foresees the establishment of a control center in Istanbul, to be staffed by UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials, to run and coordinate the process.
    • Ships would undergo inspections to ensure they are not carrying weapons.
    • Ukraine has insisted that no Russian ship would escort vessels and that there would be no Russian representative present at Ukrainian ports.
    • Ukraine also plans an immediate military response in case of provocations.

     

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  • ‘Advantage New Delhi’ in Sri Lanka’s India lifeline

    Context

    Ranil Wickremesinghe’s election as the President of Sri Lanka in a crucial Parliament vote on July 20, 2022, gives India an opportunity to take the lead in the foreign aid game in its neighbourhood.

    Background of the crisis in Sri Lanka

    • Sri Lanka has been facing economic turbulence since its pre-emptive default on its foreign debt obligations in mid-April this year.
    • Following the debt default and a shortage of dollars, the Sri Lankan economy is experiencing stagflation.
    •  Inflation has spiralled to over 50%, translating into higher food and fuel prices.
    •  Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948 is due to a tepid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock and economic mismanagement under the administration of the Rajapaksas.
    • Sri Lanka is also facing challenges in getting foreign aid, as 60% of the world’s poorest countries are also experiencing debt distress.

    Opportunities for India

    •  In the first six months of 2022, Indian aid worth $3.8 billion has flowed to Sri Lanka through loans, swaps and grants.
    • This is India’s largest bilateral aid programme in recent times.
    •  Stabilising Sri Lanka’s economy could prove to be a major win for Indian’s ‘neighbourhood-first’ policy.
    • Moreover, once the Sri Lankan economy stabilises, India can deepen its trade and investment linkages with Sri Lanka, transcending the current humanitarian aid relationship.
    • On the other hand, an unstable Sri Lankan economy could pose security risks to India and lead to a flood of refugees across the Palk Strait.
    • This is an opportunity for India to strengthen bilateral and regional partnerships.
    • Countering Chinese influence: In recent years, China has emerged as a major partner for Sri Lanka, especially for infrastructure projects, many of which are under scrutiny now.
    • This provides an opportunity for India to upscale its aid and cement its first mover advantage over China by leading an aid consortium for Sri Lanka, working closely with other friendly countries such as the United States, Japan and the European Union as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Why China is reluctant to help?

    • China worries that unilaterally restructuring Sri Lanka’s debt or giving it moratoria would set a new precedent in its lending practices, leading to a queue of similarly distressed countries seeking debt relief from Beijing.
    • Furthermore, China, which is a G2 economy, and wanting to challenge the U.S., does not want its reputation to be tarnished by bailing out a floundering economy.

    Steps Sri Lanka needs to take

    • Concluding the talks with Sri Lanka: The government must show that it is serious about stabilising the economy by concluding talks on an IMF programme which will increase taxes and utility prices to raise revenue and increase interest rates to control inflation.
    • Economic reforms: It has to implement structural reforms to make the economy more open to trade and investment and allow market forces to determine resource allocation.
    • National consensus on IMF program: It has to build national consensus on implementing the IMF programme and reforms by explaining that this is the only solution to the crisis.
    • Anti-corruption policies: It has to restore the rule of law and enforce strong anti-corruption policies (including asset declarations for all parliamentarians and a strong anti-corruption office supported by the United Nations).
    • Reset foreign policy: It has to reset foreign policy towards a more neutral direction.

    Conclusion

    With political will and the right set of policies, Sri Lanka stands a sporting chance of achieving some economic normalcy within the next three years. India stands to gain by supporting Sri Lanka in its hour of need. A friend in need is a friend indeed.

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  • Russia resumes gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream Pipeline

    Russia restored critical gas supplies to Europe through Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline after 10 days of uncertainty in guise of maintenance.

    Nord Stream Pipeline

    • It is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
    • It includes two active pipelines running from Vyborg to Lubmin near Greifswald forming the original Nord Stream, and two further pipelines under construction running from Ust-Luga to Lubmin termed Nord Stream 2.
    • In Lubmin the lines connect to the OPAL line to Olbernhau on the Czech border and to the NEL line to Rehden near Bremen.
    • The first line Nord Stream-1 was laid and inaugurated in 2011 and the second line in 2012.
    • At 1,222 km in length, Nord Stream is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled pipeline.

    Why in news?

    • Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, had feared that Moscow would not reopen the pipeline after the scheduled work and accused Moscow of using energy as a “weapon”.
    • The showdown came amid the worst tensions in several years over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • Germany believes Russia is squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions over the war.

    Why is Russian gas so important?

    (1) Major chunk of energy

    • Russia supplied some 40% of Europe’s natural gas before the war.
    • That has dropped to around 15%, sending prices through the roof and straining energy-intensive industries.

    (2) Everyday use

    • Gas is used across a range of processes that most people never see – to forge steel to make cars, make glass bottles and pasteurise milk and cheese.
    • Companies warn that they often can’t switch overnight to other energy sources such as fuel oil or electricity to produce heat.

    (3) Fuel inflation

    • High energy prices are already threatening to cause a recession in Europe through record inflation, with consumers having less to spend as costs rise for food, fuel and utilities.
    • A complete cutoff could deal an even heavier blow to an already troubled economy.

    What is visible in Russia’s game plan?

    • Since the invasion, Russia’s revenue from exporting oil and gas to Europe has doubled over the average from recent years, to $95 billion.
    • So Putin has cash in hand and could calculate that painful utility bills and an energy recession could undermine public support for Ukraine in Europe and increase sentiment for a negotiated settlement in his favour.
    • It would be unwise to exclude the possibility that Russia could decide to forgo the revenue it gets from exporting gas to Europe in order to gain political leverage.

    What alternatives does Europe have?

    • The EU has turned to more-expensive liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which comes by ship from places like the US and Qatar.
    • Germany is fast-tracking construction of LNG import terminals on its North Sea coast, but that will take years.
    • But LNG alone can’t make up the gap.
    • Conservation and other energy sources are key.

    Could people freeze this winter?

    • Its unlikely homes, schools and hospitals will lose heat because governments are required to impose rationing first on businesses.
    • The German government also could allow gas suppliers to immediately pass on increases to customers.
    • The choices could include torpedoing industry and/or socking consumers with even higher bills.
    • The IEA recommends that European countries step up campaigns for people to conserve at home and plan to share gas in an emergency.

     

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  • India-Vietnam ties, from strong to stronger

    Context

    India and Vietnam are celebrating the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic relations.

    India-Vietnam relations background

    • Commonalities: India’s relations with Vietnam — some of which is based on a set of historical commonalities — predate any conflict between India and China as well as that between China and Vietnam.
    • Political and security engagement: As India pursues its ‘Act East Policy’, Vietnam has become a valuable partner in India’s political and security engagements in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Growing convergence between India and Vietnam

    • Convergence of strategic and economic interests: Bolstering friendship between the two countries is a natural outcome of a growing convergence of their strategic and economic interests, and also their common vision for peace, prosperity and their people.
    • Shared strategic concerns: The two countries are working to address shared strategic concerns (such as energy security and open and secure sea lines of communication), and make policy choices without undue external interference.
    • Given India’s broadening economic and strategic interests in the region and Vietnam’s desire for strategic autonomy, both countries will benefit from a stronger bilateral relationship.
    • Shared apprehension about China: India and Vietnam face territorial disputes with and shared apprehensions about their common neighbour, China.
    • Vietnam is of great strategic importance because its position enables it to control ‘the South China Sea — a true Mediterranean of the Pacific’.
    • The maritime domain, therefore, has become an essential element of India and Vietnam cooperation.
    • More importantly, India sees an open and stable maritime commons being essential to international trade and prosperity; therefore, it has an interest in protecting the sea lanes.
    • There are some other potential areas for New Delhi and Hanoi to further deepen collaboration, such as meaningful academic and cultural collaborations, shipbuilding, maritime connectivity, maritime education and research, coastal engineering, the blue economy, marine habitat conservation, and advance collaboration between maritime security agencies.

    Four factors responsible for growing maritime engagement with Vietnam

    • 1] Countering China: India’s aspiration to counter an assertive China by strengthening Vietnam’s military power.
    • 2] Security sea lines: With India’s increasing trade with East and Southeast Asia, India has begun to recognise the importance of its sea lines of communication beyond its geographical proximity; the South China Sea occupies a significant geostrategic and geo-economic position, resulting in India’s renewed interests in the South China Sea.
    • 3] Development in maritime domain: India desires to intensify its presence to track potential developments in the maritime domain that could affect its national interests.
    • 4] Naval partnership: The Indian Navy underlines the importance of a forward maritime presence and naval partnership that would be critical to deter potential adversaries.
    • India’s maritime strategic interests in the region are well established, including the fact that almost 55% of India’s trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through the South China Sea.

    Strategic and defence cooperation

    • Ever since the formal declaration of a strategic partnership in 2007 and Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2016, the scope and scale of the India-Vietnam strategic and defence cooperation, particularly in the maritime domain, is deepening with a clear vision, institutional mechanisms.
    • The signing of ‘Joint Vision for Defence Cooperation’ and a memorandum of understanding on mutual logistics support in June 2022 has further strengthened mutual defence cooperation.
    • Enhancing Vietnam’s defence capabilities: While a U.S.$100 million Defence Line of Credit has been implemented, India has also announced early finalisation of another U.S.$500 million Defence Line of Credit to enhance Vietnam’s defence capability.
    • New Delhi has also agreed to expand military training and assist the Vietnam Navy’s strike capabilities.

    Cooperation in Indo-Pacific region

    •  India is willing to take a principled stand on territorial disputes in the hope that it contributes to the stabilisation of the Indo-Pacific.
    • Such positions align closely with Vietnam’s stance on the management of the South China Sea disputes.
    • The two countries are also engaging in wide-ranging practical cooperation in the maritime domain through a maritime security dialogue, naval exercises, ship visits, Coast Guard cooperation, and training and capacity building.
    • Working in various frameworks: Both countries have found mutual convergences on cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and are synergising their efforts to work in bilateral as well as other sub-regional and multilateral frameworks, such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, ADMM-Plus or the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus.
    • Both countries are also looking at collaboration around the seven pillars of the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI).

    Conclusion

    The road map agreed upon by the leaders will be helpful in addressing common challenges and decisively navigating towards making an India-Vietnam partnership that helps in stability in the Indo-Pacific.

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  • Lessons on navigating the evolving geopolitics in the Middle East

    Context

    The US President’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel highlights not only some new trends that are reshaping the region but also eternal truths about international politics that are lost in the din of public discourse about the Middle East.

    What is the significance of the visit

    1] The US is not abandoning the Middle East

    • Contrary to the popular perception in the US, the region, and India, the US is not about to abandon the Middle East.
    • Many in the US political class believed that given America’s oil independence from the Middle East no longer needed the region.
    • American withdrawal from Afghanistan last year intensified these concerns and the region looked for alternative means to secure itself.
    • But as in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the Biden Administration has concluded that it can’t cede its regional primacy in the Middle East and is ready to reclaim its leadership.
    • But as in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the Biden Administration has concluded that it can’t cede its regional primacy in the Middle East and is ready to reclaim its leadership.

    2] No direct involvement

    • While the US will stay put in the Middle East, it is certainly changing the manner in which it acts.
    • In the past, the US saw itself as the sole provider of regional security and was ready to send its troops frequently into the region.
    • While the US does not want to be drawn directly into the region’s wars, it is determined to help its partners develop capabilities to secure themselves.
    • Arab-Israel reconciliation: Efforts are also being taken to produce greater reconciliation among Arabs and Israel and create stronger networks within and beyond the region to strengthen deterrence against adversaries.
    • The current effort to craft a Middle East Air Defence coalition is an example of this,
    • The I2U2 signals that the US no longer views the Middle East in isolation from its neighbourhood.

    3] Setting aside the differences on democracy vs autocracy debate

    • Biden had to modify his sweeping rhetoric about the “conflict between democracies and autocracies” as the principal contradiction in the world.
    • To sustain the US position in the region, Biden had no option but to sit with leaders of monarchies and autocracies that are America’s long-standing partners.

    4] Nation above identities

    • Biden’s focus on national interest found an echo in the Middle East, which is learning to put nation above other identities such as ethnicity and religion.
    • In the past, the region seemed immune to nationalism as it focused on transcendental notions of “pan Arabism” and “pan Islamism”.
    • Although the idea of Arab solidarity on the Palestine issue endures, many Arab leaders are not willing to let that come in the way of normalisation of relations with Israel.
    • A critical section of the Arabs, long seen as irreconcilably opposed to Israel, are now joining hands with the Jewish state to counter threats to their national security from Iran.
    • Many Gulf kingdoms, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now consciously promoting a national identity among their peoples.
    •  Despite shared religion, Turkey’s leader Recep Erdogan has in recent years sought to undermine many of the Arab regimes.
    • Qatar has often found itself closer to non-Arab Turkey and in opposition to its Gulf Arab neighbours.

    Conclusion

    Delhi, whose Middle East policy today is imbued with greater realism, can hopefully discard the inherited ideological inertia, avoid the temptation of seeing the Middle East through a religious lens, and strive hard to realise the full possibilities awaiting India in the region.

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  • Pakistan and IMF talks: What lies ahead?

    The latest IMF press release maintains it would consider an extension of the current Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to end June 2023 and augment the fund amount to $7 billion for Pakistan.

    Pakistan seeks IMF bailout

    • Surprisingly, it took five months to reach the staff-level agreement.
    • The total disbursement under the current EFF to Pakistan has now been $4.2 billion.
    • The talks were originally aimed at releasing a tranche of $900 million.

    What is Extended Fund Facility (EFF)?

    • The EFF was established by the IMF to provide assistance to countries experiencing serious payment imbalances because of structural impediments or slow growth and an inherently weak balance-of-payments position.
    • An EFF provides support for comprehensive programs including the policies needed to correct structural imbalances over an extended period.

    What was the Pakistani EFF?

    • The 39-month EFF between the two was signed in July 2019 to provide funds amounting to Self-Drawing Rights (SDR) — $4,268 million.
    • The EFF was signed by Pakistan to address the medium-term balance of payment problem, and work on structural impediments and increase per capita income.

    Why did the talks take longer to conclude?

    • The IMF placed demands (all of which seem impossible for Pakistan) includes :
    1. Fiscal consolidation to reduce debt and build resilience
    2. Market-determined exchange rate to restore competitiveness
    3. Eliminate ‘quasi-fiscal’ losses in the energy sector and
    4. Strengthened institutions with transparency
    • Ousted Pakistani PM eased fuel prices. This was considered a major deviation under the EFF benchmarks.
    • Then govt gave tax amnesties to the industrial sector, impacted the tax regime and a structural benchmark for fiscal consolidation.
    • The IMF insisted on its demands before approving any release of the tranche.

    How important is the IMF support to Pakistan?

    • Pakistan’s economic situation is dire.
    • According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2022, the fiscal deficit in FY 22 was $18.6 billion, and the net public debt at $252 billion, which is 66.3% of the GDP.
    • The power sector’s circular debt is $14 billion.

    Why have the Pakistan-IMF relations remained complicated?

    • Structural reforms require long-term commitment, which have been sacrificed due to Pakistan’s short-sighted political goals.
    • Hence the urge to go to the IMF for fiscal stability has been repeated over time.

    Risks posed by a failed Pakistan

    • There is also a narrative that Pakistan has the fifth largest population with nuclear weapons that cannot be allowed to fail.
    • A section within Pakistan also places the geo-strategic location of the country would provide an edge for cooperation, rather than coercion.
    • Hence, this section believes, the IMF would continue to support.
    • Given the IMF’s increased assertion, Pakistan’s political calculations and the elections ahead, the relationship between the two is likely to remain complicated.

    What lies ahead for Pakistan and the IMF?

    • Despite the latest agreement, the road ahead for the IMF and Pakistan is not an easy one.
    • Political calculations and the elections ahead will play a role in Pakistan’s economic decision-making.
    • However, one thing is eminent Pakistan will certainly collapse someday badly like Sri Lanka.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2022

    “Rapid Financing Instrument” and “Rapid Credit Facility” are related to the provisions of lending by which one of the following?

    (a) Asian Development Bank

    (b) International Monetary fund

    (c) United National Environment Programme Finance initiative

    (d) Word bank

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”md50hycvo5″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answer here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

    Back2Basics: Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)

    • SDRs, created by the IMF in 1969, are an international reserve asset and are meant to supplement countries’ reserves.
    • Adding SDRs to the country’s international reserves makes it more financially resilient.
    • Providing liquidity support to developing and low-income countries allows them to tide over the balance of payments (BOP) situations like the one India has been experiencing due to the pandemic and the one it faced earlier in 1991.
    • SDRs being one of the components of foreign exchange reserves (FER) of a country, an increase in its holdings is reflected in the BOP.

     

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  • In news: India-Bhutan Relations

    After over two years of the COVID-19-induced lockdown, Bhutan will open its doors to tourists on September 23 with a new expensive policy for Indians and other foreign tourists.

    India-Bhutan Relations: A backgrounder

    • India and Bhutan have had long-standing diplomatic, economic and cultural relations
    • Bhutan and India relations are governed by a friendship treaty that was renegotiated only in 2007, subjecting the Himalayan nation’s security needs to supervision.
    • Treaty of Friendship in 2007, which brought into the India-Bhutan relationship “an element of equality.”
    • The Treaty provides for perpetual peace and friendship, free trade and commerce, and equal justice to each other’s citizens.

    What is the Treaty of Friendship?

    • On August 8, 1949, Bhutan and India signed the Treaty of Friendship, calling for peace between the two nations and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.
    • India re-negotiated the 1949 treaty with Bhutan and signed a new treaty of friendship in 2007.
    • The new treaty replaced the provision requiring Bhutan to take India’s guidance on foreign policy with broader sovereignty and not require Bhutan to obtain India’s permission over arms imports.
    • Under the 2007 India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty, the two sides have agreed to “cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests.”
    • Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other

    Various facets of ties

    (1) Commercial Relations

    • India is Bhutan’s largest trading partner.
    • India and Bhutan have signed an Agreement on Trade, Commerce and Transit on in 2016, which provides for a free trade regime between the two countries.
    • Tourism is another point of convergence.

    (2) Energy Cooperation

    • A scheme titled “Comprehensive Scheme for Establishment of Hydro-meteorological and Flood Forecasting Network on rivers Common to India and Bhutan” is in operation.
    • The network consists of 32 Hydro-meteorological/ meteorological stations located in Bhutan and being maintained by the Royal Government of Bhutan with funding from India.
    • The data received from these stations are utilized in India for formulating flood forecasts.

    Significance of Bhutan to India

    • Buffer to China: Bhutan is a buffer state between India and China. Bhutan shares a 470 km long border with China.
    • Vital connectivity through chicken’s neck: The Chumbi Valley is situated at the tri-junction of Bhutan, India and China and is 500 km away from the “Chicken’s neck” in North Bengal.
    • Security in North-East: Bhutan has in the past cooperated with India and helped to flush out militant groups in NE.
    • Chinese inroad in Bhutan: China is interested in establishing formal ties with Thimphu, where it does not yet have a diplomatic mission.

    China factor in ties: China predates on small neighbours

    • Bhutan is strategically important for both India and China. Chinese territorial claims in western Bhutan are close to the Siliguri Corridor.
    • Beijing is reportedly insisting on Bhutan establishing trade and diplomatic relations as a quid pro quo for a border settlement.
    • Bhutan is currently India’s only neighbour who has stayed away from joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but that may change if India can’t make itself an attractive ally and neighbour.

    Why does India need Bhutan?

    • Bhutan has always been India’s most trusted ally in South Asia and has often put India’s security at the forefront.
    • Come to think of it, in December 2003, Bhutan’s fourth king personally led the army to throw out Indian militants living in Bhutan’s jungles.
    • Bhutan was also the only South Asian country besides India not to attend China’s Belt and Road Initiative forum in May 2017.
    • In other words, land-locked Bhutan has held its end of the bargain.

    Various cooperation developments

    • Maitri Initiative: Bhutan is the first country to receive the Covishield vaccines under India’s Vaccine Maitri Initiative.
    • Financial connectivity: It has touched new heights through the launch of the RuPay card and the BHIM app.
    • Start-Up ecosystem: Both nations successfully linked up the Start-Up systems of our two countries via structured workshops; through the National Knowledge Network & the Druk-REN connection.
    • E-Library project: It has opened up new vistas of education and knowledge sharing between two countries.

    Irritants in ties

    • India has not invested in significantly in Bhutan and other smaller neighbours that modicum of trust which is critical in building genuine goodwill.
    • This means not only increasing people-to-people contact but also being sensitive to Bhutan’s desire for a wider engagement beyond India’s borders. This means respecting Bhutan as an equal, sovereign nation-state.

    Conclusion

    • The Indo-Bhutan friendship is built on shared values and aspirations, trust and mutual respect.
    • Bhutan’s foreign policy framework holds the relationship with India as being integral to its national interest.
    • The Indian approach to Bhutan has necessarily to be tailored while being sensitive to the growing Bhutanese aspirations of being considered equal.

     

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  • The Ukraine war and the return to Euro-centrism

    Context

    The Russian aggression against Ukraine has led to an unmissable feeling of insecurity in Europe, particularly in Germany.

     Euro-centric world order and new security consciousness

    • For centuries, Europe imagined itself to be the centre of the world — its order, politics and culture.
    • What contributed to its decline? Decolonisation, the emergence of the United States as the western world’s sole superpower, and the rise of the rest dramatically diminished the centuries old domination of the European states and their ability to shape the world in their own image.
    • The political and military aftermath of Russia’s war on Ukraine could potentially tilt the current global balance and take us back to a Euro-centric world order.
    • US dominance: For sure, the U.S. continues to dominate the trans-Atlantic security landscape and this is likely to remain so.
    • And yet, the new security consciousness in Europe will reduce Washington’s ability to continue as the fulcrum of the trans-Atlantic strategic imagination.
    • If wars have the potential to shape international orders, it is Europe’s turn to shape the world, once again.
    • The United States, fatigued from the Iraq and Afghan wars, does not appear to be keen on another round of wars and military engagements.
    •  A pervasive sense of what some described as “existential insecurity” has brought about a renewed enthusiasm about the future of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
    • The European Union (EU) Commission has backed Kyiv’s bid for EU candidature.
    • This new military unity is not just words, but is backed with political commitment and financial resources from the world’s richest economies.
    • Berlin, for instance, has decided to spend an additional €100 billion for defence over and above its €50 billion annual expenditure on defence.

    Implications

    1] Weakened faith in the institutions and globalisation

    • Germany, the engine of this new security thinking in Europe, is coming out of its self-image of being a pacifist nation.
    • There appears little faith in the United Nations or the UN Security Council anymore in Berlin, they have decided to put their faith in a revitalised EU and NATO.
    • European states are deeply worried about globalisation-induced vulnerability and this has set in a rethink about the inherent problems of indiscriminate globalisation.
    • The combined effect of European re-militarisation (however modest it may be for now), its loss of faith in multilateral institutions, and the increased salience of the EU and NATO will be the unchecked emergence of Europe as an even stronger regulatory, norm/standard-setting superpower backed with military power.

    2] Unilateral and Euro-centric decision making

    • The EU already has a worryingly disproportionate ability to set standards for the rest of the world.
    • Instruments such as the Digital Services Act and the Digital Assets Act or its human rights standards will be unilaterally adopted, and will be unavoidable by other parts of the world.
    • While these instruments and standards may in themselves be progressive and unobjectionable for the most part, the problem is with the process which is unilateral and Euro-centric. 

    3] Euro-centric worldview

    • A euro-centric worldview of ‘friends and enemies’ will define its engagement with the rest of the world.
    • India is a friend, but its take on the Ukraine war is not friendly enough for Europe.
    • The EU will lead the way in setting standards for the rest of us and we will have little option but to follow that.
    • For sure, Europe will seek partners around the world: to create a Euro-centric world order, not a truly global world order.

    4] Dilemma for India

    • This unilateral attempt to ‘shape the world’ in its image will also be portrayed as an attempt to counter Chinese attempts at global domination.
    • To oppose or not? When presented as such, countries such as India will face a clear dilemma: to politically and normatively oppose the setting of the global agenda by Europeans or to be practical about it and jump on the European bandwagon.

    Conclusion

    The key message from the European narratives about the Ukraine war is that European states would want to see their wars and conflicts as threatening international stability and the ‘rules-based’ global order.

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