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Subject: International Relations

  • UNSC

    In a first, India will host diplomats and officials from all 15 countries of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), including China, Russia and the US, for a special meeting on terrorism, in Delhi and Mumbai in October.

    Key determinants of the meet

    The special meeting will specifically focus on three significant areas:

    1. Internet and social media
    2. Terrorism financing
    3. Unmanned aerial systems

    What is Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC)?

    • The CTC is a subsidiary body of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
    • The 15-member CTC was established at the same time to monitor the implementation of the resolution.
    • In the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, the UNSC unanimously adopted resolution 1373.
    • This among its provisions obliges all States
    1. To criminalize assistance for terrorist activities,
    2. Deny financial support and safe haven to terrorists and
    3. Share information about groups planning terrorist attacks

    Its executive body

    • Seeking to revitalize the Committee’s work, in 2004 the Security Council adopted Resolution 1535.
    • It created the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) to provide the CTC with expert advice on all areas covered by resolution 1373.
    • It was established also with the aim of facilitating technical assistance to countries, as well as promoting closer cooperation and coordination both within the UN.

    Its working

    • While the CTC is not a direct capacity provider it does act as a broker between those states or groups that have the relevant capacities and those in the need of assistance.
    • While the ultimate aim of the Committee is to increase the ability of States to fight terrorism, it is not a sanctions body nor does it maintain a list of terrorist groups or individuals.

    Significance of the event

    • India has been pushing for the UN members to adopt a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (first proposed in 1996), which is likely to be raised during the meeting.
    • The event will showcase India’s role as a victim of terrorism as well as a country at the forefront of global counter-terrorism efforts.
    • CTC meeting in India could also pave the way for a possible visit to New York by PM Narendra Modi in December, when India will be the President of the UNSC for the entire month.

    Way ahead: Hitting the nerve

    • While terror financing was now recognised by FATF, it was necessary to build templates and “codes of conduct” for newer threats.
    • Today terror financing now includes financing through cryptocurrency and the use of drones for terror attacks.

     

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  • Taiwan between giants

    Context

    The US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan evoking strong protest from China.

    Brief history of China-Taiwan Tensions

    • Taiwan is an island about 160 km off the coast of southeastern China, opposite the Chinese cities of Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xiamen.
    • It was administered by the imperial Qing dynasty, but its control passed to the Japanese in 1895.
    • After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the island passed back into Chinese hands.
    • After the communists led by Mao Zedong won the civil war in mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalist Kuomintang party, fled to Taiwan in 1949.
    • Chiang Kai-shek set up the government of the Republic of China on the island, and remained President until 1975.
    • Beijing has never recognised the existence of Taiwan as an independent political entity, arguing that it was always a Chinese province.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Why does China have a problem with Pelosi visiting Taiwan?

    • For China, the presence of a senior American figure in Taiwan would indicate some kind of US support for Taiwan’s independence.
    • This move severely undermined China’s perception of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    China’s reaction

    • Increased military exercises around Taiwa : Military exercises around Taiwan have been expanded, with Chinese aircraft intruding more frequently across the informal median line which defines the zone of operations on each side.
    • Increased naval presence: Chinese naval ships are cruising within the Taiwan Straits and around the island itself.
    • Economic sanctions have been announced, prohibiting imports of a whole range of foodstuffs from Taiwan.
    • One item which will be left out is semi-conductors, a critical import for a range of Chinese high-tech industries.
    • Taiwanese firms like the Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are world leaders in the most sophisticated brands of chips imported by a large number of countries.
    •  The main target of China’s escalating response will be Taiwan.
    • Taiwan is indeed caught in the crossfire between China and the US and being a proxy in a fight between giants.

    Implications for East Asia and South East Asia

    • Forced into making a choice: Just as Taiwan is caught in a crossfire between the US and China, so are the East Asian and South East Asian countries.
    • Prefer US military presence: They feel reassured by the considerable US military presence deployed in the region and tacitly support its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • Strong economic ties with China: However, their economic and commercial interests are bound ever tighter with the large and growing Chinese economy.
    • This having it both ways strategy is beginning to fray at the edges with the escalating tensions between the US and China.
    • Most do not wish to be forced into making a choice.

    What should be India’s approach?

    • Advantageous for India: In one sense, China’s preoccupation with its eastern ocean flank of the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is good for India.
    • It diminishes Chinese attention toward the Indian Ocean, India’s primary security theatre.
    • Adhere to One China Policy: Prudence demands that India hew closely to its consistent one China policy even while maintaining and even expanding non-official relations with Taiwan.
    • For the US, Japan and Australia, members of the Quad, Taiwan is a key component of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • It is not for India.

    Conclusion

    One should use the opportunity to expand India’s naval capabilities and maritime profile in this theatre before the Chinese begin to look to our extended neighbourhood with renewed interest and energy.

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  • Taiwan Crisis

    As US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived upsetting China, India was keenly watching the developments, although it has not yet commented on it.

    What is the ‘One China’ policy?

    • It is the diplomatic acknowledgment of China’s position that there is only one Chinese government.
    • Taiwan’s government was set up by the Kuomintang, whose party logo is reflected in Taiwan’s flag
    • Initially, many governments including the US recognised Taiwan as they shied away from Communist China.
    • But the diplomatic winds shifted as China and the United States saw a mutual need to develop relations beginning in the 1970s, with the US and other countries cutting ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing.

    Why is China obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is the largest producer of electronic chips, which are supplied to almost all the industries, from phones to laptops, watches to game consoles, industrial equipment to automotive, and aircraft and fighter jets.
    • TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the largest foundry in the world and holds around 65 percent of the global production of chips.
    • Any potential conflict with China would completely disrupt the entire supply chain of TSMC and labor availability, and could cause major shortage of electronic chips.
    • Additionally, China controls five percent of the global production of chips, which could also be affected.
    • This could further impact the already existing supply-demand gap for electronic components.

    India- Taiwan Relations

    Background

    • India does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan yet, as it follows the One-China policy.
    • However, during then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in December 2010, India did not mention support for the One-China policy in the joint communique.
    • In 2014, when PM Modi came to power, he invited Taiwan’s Ambassador Chung-Kwang Tien, along with Lobsang Sangay, president of the Central Tibetan Administration to his swearing-in.

    Diplomatic ties

    • While following the One-China policy, India has an office in Taipei for diplomatic functions — India-Taipei Association (ITA) is headed by a senior diplomat.
    • Taiwan has the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC) in New Delhi. Both were established in 1995.
    • Their ties focus on commerce, culture and education.
    • Now in their third decade, these have been deliberately kept low-profile, owing to China’s sensitivities.
    • For example, parliamentary delegation visits and legislature-level dialogues have stopped since 2017, around the time the India-China border standoff happened in Doklam.

    The new push

    • Any significant development in India-Taiwan relations runs the risk of meeting with a likely stern reaction from Beijing.
    • This explains India’s steady, albeit slow, outreach to Taiwan.
    • Given that India-China relations are not likely to witness a return to normalcy in the near future, India should consider adopting a bold, comprehensive and long-term approach to engage Taiwan.

     

     

  • What is the New START treaty?

    Russia is ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense stand-off over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

    The New START, INF and the Open Skies …. Be clear about the differences of these treaties. For example- to check if their inception was during cold war era etc.

    New START Treaty

    • The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) pact limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers and is due to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
    • The treaty limits the US and Russia to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, well below Cold War caps.
    • It was signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
    • It is one of the key controls on the superpower deployment of nuclear weapons.

    Background of US-Russia Nuclear Relations

    • The US formally QUIT the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
    • The agreement obliged the two countries to eliminate all ground-based missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 km.

    When did nuclear disarmament begin?

    • In 1985, the two countries entered into arms control negotiations on three tracks.
    • The first dealt with strategic weapons with ranges of over 5,500 km, leading to the START agreement in 1991.
    • It limited both sides to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads.
    • A second track dealt with intermediate-range missiles and this led to the INF Treaty in 1987.
    • A third track, Nuclear, and Space Talks was intended to address Soviet concerns regarding the U.S.’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) but this did not yield any outcome.

    Success of INF

    • The INF Treaty was hailed as a great disarmament pact even though no nuclear warheads were dismantled.
    • As it is a bilateral agreement, it did not restrict other countries.
    • By 1991, the INF was implemented. USSR destroyed 1,846 and the US destroyed 846 Pershing and cruise missiles. 
    • Associated production facilities were also closed down.
    • INF Treaty was the first pact to include intensive verification measures, including on-site inspections.

    How has the nuclear behavior been?

    • With the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the USSR in end-1991, former Soviet allies were joining NATO and becoming EU members.
    • The U.S. was investing in missile defense and conventional global precision strike capabilities to expand its technological lead.
    • In 2001, the U.S. announced its unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty).
    • The US also blamed Russia for not complying with the ‘zero-yield’ standard imposed by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This may indicate the beginning of a new nuclear arms race.

    Implications of the New Start

    • The 2011 New START lapsed in 2021. It may meet the fate of the INF Treaty.
    • The 2018 NPR envisaged the development of new nuclear weapons, including low-yield weapons.
    • China is preparing to operate its test site year-round with its goals for its nuclear force.
    • CTBT requires ratification by U.S., China, and Iran, Israel and Egypt and adherence by India, Pakistan and North Korea. It is unlikely to ever enter into force.

    Conclusion

    • A new nuclear arms race could just be the beginning. It may be more complicated because of multiple countries being involved.
    • Technological changes are bringing cyber and space domains into contention. It raises the risks of escalation.

     

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  • INSTC

    Context

    Last week, two 40-ft containers of wood laminate sheets crossed the Caspian Sea from Russia’s Astrakhan port, entered Iran’s Anzali port, continued their southward journey towards the Arabian Sea, entered the waters at Bandar Abbas and eventually reach Nhava Shiva port in Mumbai.

    Launch of INSTC

    • The journey of containers signalled the launch of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multi-modal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes connecting Russia and India via central Asia and Iran.
    • The legal framework for the INSTC is provided by a trilateral agreement signed by India, Iran and Russia at the Euro-Asian Conference on Transport in 2000.
    • Since then Kazakhstan, Belarus, Oman, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria have signed instruments of accession to become members of the INSTC.
    • Once fully operational, the INSTC is expected to reduce freight costs by 30% and journey time by 40% in comparison with the conventional deep sea route via the Suez Canal.
    • The corridor is expected to consolidate the emerging Eurasian Free Trade Area.

    Significance for India

    • Geopolitical link: The INSTC’s launch provides missing pieces of the puzzle about India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    • India’s investment in the INSTC is exemplified by its involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port and the construction of a 500-km Chabahar-Zahedan railway line.
    •  The India Ports Global Limited, a joint venture between the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust, will develop the port along with Iran’s Aria Banader.
    • IRCON International will contribute to constructing the railway line.
    • A special economic zone around Chabahar will offer Indian companies the opportunity to set up a range of industries.
    • The INSTC, thus, provides an opportunity for the internationalisation of India’s infrastructural state, with state-run businesses taking the lead and paving the way for private companies.

    Geopolitical significance for India

    • Access to Afghanistan and Central Asia: Once completed, this infrastructure will allow India access to Afghanistan and central Asia, a prospect strengthened by the Taliban government’s support for the project.
    • India can now bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan, central Asia and beyond.
    • North-South transport corridor: The INSTC can shape a north-south transport corridor that can complement the east-west axis of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Non-alignment to multi-alignment: India’s founding role in both the INSTC and the Quad exemplify its departure from non-alignment to multi-alignment.
    • The INSTC offers a platform for India to closely collaborate with Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics. 
    • That two of its partners are subject to Western sanctions hasn’t prevented India from collaborating with the U.S., Japan and Australia as part of the Quad to create and safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific.

    Conclusion

    As a transcontinental multi-modal corridor that aims to bring Eurasia closer together, the INSTC is a laudable initiative in its own right. That it helps India consolidate its multi-alignment strategy sweetens the deal.

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  • UN panel tells Hong Kong to repeal National Security Law

    Hong Kong’s controversial national security law should be repealed, experts on the UN Human Rights Committee said, amid concerns the legislation is being used to crack down on free speech and dissent in the former British colony.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese and Hong Kong officials have repeatedly used the NSL imposed by Beijing in 2020 to restore stability after the city was rocked for months by sometimes violent anti-government and anti-China protests in 2019.
    • The committee, which monitors the implementation of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) by state parties, released its findings on Hong Kong following a periodic review.
    • The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is a signatory to the ICCPR but China is not.

    About Hong Kong

    • A former British Colony and Autonomous Territory: Hong Kong is an autonomous territory, and a former British colony, in south-eastern China.
    • It became a colony of the British Empire at the end of the First Opium War in 1842.
    • Sovereignty over the territory was returned to China in 1997.
    • Special Administrative Region (SAR): As a SAR, Hong Kong maintains governing power and economic systems that are separate from those of mainland China.
    • The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration guarantees the Basic Law for 50 years after the transfer of sovereignty.
    • It does not specify how Hong Kong will be governed after 2047.
    • Thus, the central government’s role in determining the territory’s future system of government is the subject of political debate and speculation in Hong kong.

    What is this law all about?

    • Hong Kong was always meant to have a security law, but could never pass one because it was so unpopular.
    • So this is about China stepping in to ensure the city has a legal framework to deal with what it sees as serious challenges to its authority.
    • The details of the law’s 66 articles were kept secret until after it was passed. It criminalises any act of:
    1. Secession – breaking away from the country
    2. Subversion – undermining the power or authority of the central government
    3. Terrorism – using violence or intimidation against people
    4. Collusion–  with foreign or external forces

    What provisions do fall under the law?

    • The law came into effect at 23:00 local time on 30 June 2020, an hour before the 23rd anniversary of the city’s handover to China from British rule.
    • It gives Beijing power to shape life in Hong Kong it has never had before.
    • Its key provisions include:
    1. Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a maximum sentence of life in prison
    2. Damaging public transport facilities can be considered terrorism
    3. Those found guilty will not be allowed to stand for public office
    4. Companies can be fined if convicted under the law
    5. This office can send some cases to be tried in mainland China – but Beijing has said it will only have that power over a “tiny number” of cases
    6. In addition, Hong Kong will have to establish its own national security commission to enforce the laws, with a Beijing-appointed adviser
    7. Hong Kong’s chief executive will have the power to appoint judges to hear national security cases, raising fears about judicial autonomy
    8. Importantly, Beijing will have power over how the law should be interpreted, not any Hong Kong judicial or policy body. If the law conflicts with any Hong Kong law, the Beijing law takes priority
    9. Some trials will be heard behind closed doors.
    10. People suspected of breaking the law can be wire-tapped and put under surveillance
    11. Management of foreign non-governmental organizations and news agencies will be strengthened
    12. The law will also apply to non-permanent residents and people “from outside [Hong Kong]… who are not permanent residents of Hong Kong“.

    What has changed in Hong Kong since the law was introduced?

    • Hundreds of protestors, activists and former opposition lawmakers have been arrested since the law came into force.
    • The arrests are an ominous sign that its crackdown on Hong Kong is only going to escalate.
    • Beijing has said the law is needed to bring stability to the city, but critics say it is designed to squash dissent.

    Why did China do this?

    • Hong Kong was handed back to China from British control in 1997.
    • But under a unique agreement – a mini-constitution called the Basic Law and a so-called “one country, two systems” principle.
    • They are supposed to protect certain freedoms for Hong Kong: freedom of assembly and speech, an independent judiciary and some democratic rights – freedoms that no other part of mainland China has.
    • Under the same agreement, Hong Kong had to enact its own national security law – this was set out in Article 23 of the Basic Law – but it never happened because of its unpopularity.

    How can China do this?

    • Many might ask how China can do this if the city was supposed to have freedoms guaranteed under the handover agreement.
    • The Basic Law says Chinese laws can’t be applied in Hong Kong unless they are listed in a section called Annex III – there are already a few listed there, mostly uncontroversial and around foreign policy.
    • These laws can be introduced by decree – which means they bypass the city’s parliament.
    • Critics say the introduction of the law this way amounts to a breach of the “one country, two systems” principle, which is so important to Hong Kong – but clearly, it is technically possible to do this.

    Must read:

    [Burning Issue] National Security Law debate in Hong Kong

     

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  • India’s role in UN Peacekeeping Missions

    Two BSF personnel recently got martyrdom who were part of the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

    Why in news?

    • A total 175 Indian peacekeepers have so far died while serving with the United Nations.
    • India has lost more peacekeepers than any other UN Member State.

    What is United Nations Peacekeeping?

    • UN Peacekeeping helps countries navigate the difficult path from conflict to peace.
    • UN peacekeepers are often referred to as Blue Berets or Blue Helmets because of their light blue berets or helmets) can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.

    UNPKF in operation

    • Since 1948, UN Peacekeepers have undertaken 71 Field Missions.
    • There are approximately 81,820 personnel serving on 13 peace operations led by UNDPO, in four continents currently.
    • This represents a nine-fold increase since 1999.
    • A total of 119 countries have contributed military and police personnel to UN peacekeeping.
    • Currently, 72,930 of those serving are troops and military observers, and about 8,890 are police personnel.

    India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping

    • India has a long history of service in UN Peacekeeping, having contributed more personnel than any other country.
    • To date, more than 2,53,000 Indians have served in 49 of the 71 UN Peacekeeping missions established around the world since 1948.
    • Currently, there are around 5,500 troops and police from India who have been deployed to UN Peacekeeping missions, the fifth highest amongst troop-contributing countries.
    • India has also provided and continues to provide, eminent Force Commanders for UN Missions.
    • India is the fifth largest troop contributor (TCC) with 5,323 personnel deployed in 8 out of 13 active UN Peacekeeping Missions, of which 166 are police personnel.

    History of India’s contribution

    • India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping began with its participation in the UN operation in Korea in the 1950s.
    • This is where India’s mediatory role in resolving the stalemate over prisoners of war in Korea led to the signing of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
    • India chaired the five-member Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission, while the Indian Custodian Force supervised the process of interviews and repatriation that followed.
    • The UN entrusted the Indian armed forces with subsequent peace missions in the Middle East, Cyprus, and the Congo (since 1971, Zaire).
    • India also served as Chair of the three international commissions for supervision and control for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos established by the 1954 Geneva Accords on Indochina.

    Role of women in Indian Peacekeeping

    • India has been sending women personnel on UN Peacekeeping Missions.
    • In 2007, India became the first country to deploy an all-women contingent to a UN Peacekeeping Mission.
    • The Formed Police Unit in Liberia provided 24-hour guard duty and conducted night patrols in the capital Monrovia, and helped to build the capacity of the Liberian police.
    • These women officers not only played a role in restoring security in the West African nation but also contributed to an increase in the number of women in Liberia’s security sector.

    Medical care as part of India’s Missions

    • In addition to their security role, the members of the Indian Formed Police Unit also organized medical camps for Liberians, many of whom have limited access to health care services.
    • Medical care is among the many services Indian Peacekeepers provide to the communities in which they serve on behalf of the Organization.
    • They also perform specialized tasks such as veterinary support and engineering services.

    India’s views on UN Peacekeeping

    • India is of the view that the international community must grasp the rapid changes that are underway in the nature and role of contemporary peacekeeping operations.
    • The Security Council’s mandates to UN Peacekeeping operations need to be rooted in ground realities, and co-related with the resources provided for the peacekeeping operation.
    • It is critical that troop and police contributing countries should be fully involved at all stages and in all aspects of mission planning.
    • There should be greater financial and human resources for peace-building in post-conflict societies, where UNPKOs have been mandated, according to officials.

     

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  • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    India has severely criticized the reported move by both China and Pakistan for third-party participation in some projects on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    • The CPEC, one of the most ambitious components of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was announced to great fanfare in 2015.
    • CPEC is a collection of infrastructure projects that are under construction throughout Pakistan beginning in 2013.
    • Originally valued at $47 billion, the value of CPEC projects is worth $62 billion as of 2020.
    • It is intended to rapidly upgrade Pakistan’s required infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, numerous energy projects, and SEZs.
    • On 13 November 2016, CPEC became partly operational when Chinese cargo was transported overland to Gwadar Port for onward maritime shipment to Africa and West Asia.

    Why CPEC?

    • CPEC has consistently been held up as a “gamechanger” for Pakistan’s economy.
    • But the road to completion has proved long and winding. Reports indicate that the pace of CPEC projects has been slowing down in Pakistan in recent years.
    • At the same time, China is the only country that is heavily investing in Pakistan.

    Why in news?

    • The lack of progress has led to numerous reports about CPEC being at a near standstill in the country.
    • Gwadar, despite being the epicenter of multibillion-dollar projects, lacks basic necessities like reliable access to water and electricity, let alone other facilities.
    • The baloch freedom movement is another impediment to the stalled project.
    • There have been sporadic attacks in Gwadar and elsewhere in the province and the country to discourage Chinese investments in the province.
    • China is also seeking to deploy its Army in the CPEC projects, to which Pakistan has contested.

    India’s reservation

    • The GoI, which shares tense relations with Pakistan, objects to the CPEC project as upgrade works to the Karakoram Highway are taking place in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • This is the territory illicitly occupied by Pakistan in 1947-48.
    • During the visit of Indian PM Modi to China in 2015, the Indian FM, Sushma Swaraj reportedly told the Chinese.
    • India did not object to the Chinese construction of the Karakoram Highway which was built between 1959 and 1979.

     

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  • A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos

    Context

    Adrift at the end of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be highly chaotic.

    Lack of strong European leadership

    • Europe has been undergoing several major changes in recent months
    • Germany, which has steered European politics for almost two wdecades under Angela Merkel, now has a Chancellor (Olaf Scholz) who has hardly any foreign policy experience.
    • Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would be virtually adrift in troubled waters.
    • Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected the President of France, but his wings have been clipped with the Opposition now gaining a majority in the French National Assembly.
    •  The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not disarray.
    • Consequently, at a time when actual and moral issues require both deft and firm handling, Europe appears rudderless.
    • Economic impact: Compounding this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
    • What is evident already is that apart from the spiralling cost of energy, food and fertilizers, quite a few countries confront the spectre of food scarcity given that Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world.
    • Apart from this, nations do face several other problems as well, including, in some cases, a foreign exchange crisis.
    • The instruments employed by the West against Russia, such as sanctions, have not had the desired impact as far as the latter is concerned.

    Growing Russia-China closeness and its implications for Indo-Pacific

    • The situation in Europe is still to be decided, but what is also becoming obvious is that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.
    • China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by the entente with Russia, may hardly be a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has induced fresh energy into a possible conflict between two rival power blocs.
    • Asia unwilling to take sides: Understanding the changing nature of relationships in Asia, and considering that most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict, is important.
    • No unity of purpose: Unlike the unity and the strength displayed by European nations — there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China was to launch a conflict with Taiwan.

    Challenges for India

    • India cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China.
    • Uncertainty about Russia: India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’ of India’s.
    • Again, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it may need from the Quad.
    • China sidelining India: China, however, seems intent on establishing its dominance and also sidelining India in Asia, which New Delhi would have discerned in the course of the virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China in June.
    • Afghanistan challenge: Apart from China, India also urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan.
    • Sri Lanka Challenge: At this time, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka presents India with a fresh set of problems.
    • In a situation where ‘rage’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant sentiments, there is every reason for concern that even governments that have maintained a ‘hands-off’ relationship could become targets of the new forces emerging in Sri Lanka.

    Major developments in West Asia

    • The Abraham Accords in 2020, which brought about the entente between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been the harbinger of certain new trends in the tangled web of relationships among countries of West Asia.
    • But even as the U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken, Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships.
    • China continues to steadily build on its connections with the region, and with Iran in particular.
    • How India is dealing with the situation: India has been making steady progress in enlarging its contacts and influence in West Asia.
    •  While the India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, the India-UAE relationship has blossomed in the past couple of years.
    • India-Iran relations, however, seem to have reached a stalemate of late.
    • Issues with I2U2: India has joined a U.S.-based group, the I2U2, comprising India, Israel the UAE and the U.S.
    • Details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is evident that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting yet another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.

    Implications for nuclear deterrence

    • The argument being adduced is that a wide gap exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities, and implicitly blames India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine from making progress in this arena.
    • What is also implied is that India could overcome the lacuna by seeking the assistance of western nations which have such capabilities and knowledge.
    • Way forward for India: It is important for India to guard against such pernicious attempts at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and be inveigled into any anti-China western move on this front.

    Conclusion

    Geopolitical experts in the West confine their findings at present solely to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that this alone would determine not only war and peace but also other critical aspects as well. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the globe, which will have equal if not more relevance to the future of the international governance system.

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  • With partners, India and Japan can form credible deterrence

    Context

    Last week’s report on Asian nuclear transitions by Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Japan’s debate on its atomic options underline the shared security challenges for Delhi and Tokyo.

    Common nuclear challenge for India and Japan and need for rethink

    • At the root of that common nuclear challenge is the continuing growth in Chinese military power and the rapid modernisation of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal.
    • 1] Modernising and expansion by China: China is modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of the general military transformation. Some estimates say China’s arsenal could grow to 1,000 warheads by 2030 from about 350 now.
    • 2] Muscular approach of China:  Xi Jinping’s China has taken a more muscular approach to its territorial disputes, including with India and Japan.
    • 3] Reluctance of the world to confront nuclear power: The Ukraine crisis has revealed that if a nuclear weapon power invades and seizes the territory of a neighbour, the rest of the world is reluctant to directly confront the aggression for fear of an escalation to the nuclear level.
    • Russia made this amply clear with its threat to use nuclear weapons if the US and NATO decide to join the war.

    Nuclear disarmament challenge

    • Indian and Japanese capacity to deter China is eroding steadily thanks to the problems with India’s minimum deterrence posture and the US nuclear umbrella over Japan.
    • India and Japan have long presented themselves as champions of nuclear disarmament.
    • Despite its call for total nuclear disarmament, India never agreed to give up its own nuclear weapons.
    •  Japan, as the world’s victim of nuclear bombing, had even a higher moral claim than India as the champion for the global abolition of nuclear weapons.
    • But Japan’s narrative is shaded by one reality—Tokyo’s reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.
    • Today neither Delhi nor Tokyo is ready to sign the 2017 Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons.
    • It is the problem presented by the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal and its growing sophistication.
    • Locked in a confrontation with the US, China is determined to raise its nuclear profile.
    • As China closes the economic and military gap with the US, there is a darkening shadow over the credibility of the US-extended deterrence for Japan.
    • This uncertainty is transforming the Japanese security debate.
    • For India, the question is whether its nuclear restraint and policy of minimum deterrence are enough to prevent China’s bullying.

    How Japan is responding to the challenge?

    • In Japan, former prime minister Shinzo Abe had called for a fresh look at Japan’s nuclear policy.
    • He was suggesting that Tokyo must consider “nuclear weapon sharing” with the US.
    • The model is Europe, where several countries including Belgium, Italy, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have arrangements to participate in the US nuclear weapon deployment and use.
    • This proposal was rejected by the current prime minister.
    • While rejecting nuclear solutions to the problem of deterring China, Japan’s focus has been on raising the defence expenditure, developing sophisticated conventional weapons, beefing up the alliance with the US and widening the circle of Asian as well as European military partners,

    Suggestions in the report

    • Unlike Japan, India has no constraints on its nuclear weapons programme except the ones it has imposed on itself.
    • In the wake of the nuclear tests of 1998, India quickly announced a policy of minimum deterrence and a doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.
    • The big question is whether this conservatism in India’s nuclear posture can or should be sustained in the face of China’s military modernisation, nuclear expansion and strategic assertiveness.
    • Fresh debate on nuclear policies: The Tellis report, detailed and technical, should provide a basis for a fresh Indian debate about its nuclear weapons policies.
    • Revising US attitude to India’s nuclear weapons: Tellis also calls on the US to revise its attitudes to India’s nuclear weapons programme.
    • In the past, the US insisted on constraining India’s nuclear weapon programme.
    • Today a strong Indian nuclear deterrent against China is critical for the geopolitical stability of Asia and the Indo-Pacific and in the US interest.
    • Facilitating more sophisticated nuclear warheads: Tellis suggests that the US should be prepared to facilitate India’s development of more sophisticated nuclear warheads as well as improve the survivability of the Indian deterrent against the expanding Chinese nuclear arsenal.
    • The US should midwife an agreement under which France would help India accelerate the development of an Indian underwater deterrent based on ballistic missile carrying submarines (SSBN) as well as nuclear attack submarines (SSN),

    Conclusion

    Tellis is calling both Delhi and Washington to reconsider entrenched nuclear assumptions in the two capitals. While the resistance to his ideas will be strong, Delhi and Washington will have to respond, sooner than later, to the dramatic changes in the global environment triggered by the rise and assertion of China.

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    Back2Basics: Nuclear umbrella

    • At the dawn of the nuclear age, to encourage friendly countries to refrain from building nuclear weapons, the United States promised to protect them with U.S. nuclear weapons.
    • This arrangement came to be called the nuclear umbrella. The experts call it extended nuclear deterrence.
    • The umbrella covers the countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
    • It is not a binding legal arrangement included in their security treaties with the United States.
    • It is an informal assurance reinforced by dialogue and, in the case of NATO, cooperative arrangements to deliver U.S. nuclear weapons if authorized by a U.S. president.