💥Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (July Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: International Relations

  • Why the Gulf matters for India?

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over its statement condemning the comments made by two Indian leaders in retaliation to the insults on Hindu deities.

    The spread of religious hatred should be condemned in any form.

    But do you think that the onus of secularism has been bestowed only on a particular religious community?

    It is often observed that the other community is free to make blasphemous comments on various deities in guise of the exercise of their freedom of speech!

    What is the news?

    • The remark had triggered outrage in the Islamic world.
    • Qatar and Kuwait summoned India’s Ambassadors and handed over to them protest notes.
    • India has categorically rejected and condemned the controversial remarks.

    Why is Gulf outraging?

    • Barring the Jewish state of Israel, the 10 other countries of the Gulf region — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Jordan and Yemen — together account for one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population.
    • They are among the strongest voices of the Muslim world.

    Gulf countries and India

    • India has enjoyed centuries of good relations with countries like Iran, while smaller gas-rich nation Qatar is one of India’s closest allies in the region.
    • India shares good relations with most of the countries in the Gulf.
    • The two most important reasons for the relationship are oil and gas, and trade.
    • Two additional reasons are the huge number of Indians who work in the Gulf countries, and the remittance they send back home.

    How much trade does India do with countries in this region?

    • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) substantial oil and gas reserves are of utmost importance for India’s energy needs.
    • The GCC includes UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.
    • It has emerged as a major trading partner of India and has vast potential as India’s investment partner for the future.

    (1) UAE

    • The UAE was India’s third largest trading partner in 2021-2022, and second largest for both exports ($28 billion) and imports ($45 billion) when these are counted individually.
    • In terms of total trade volume, the UAE ($72.9 billion) was behind the United States ($1.19 trillion) and China ($1.15 trillion).
    • The UAE accounted for 6.6% of India’s total exports and 7.3% of imports in the last financial year, up 68.4% since the previous year when international trade was impacted by the pandemic.

    (2) Saudi Arabia

    • At a total volume of $42.9 billion in 2021-22, Saudi Arabia was India’s fourth largest trading partner.
    • While exports were low at $8.76 billion (2.07% of India’s total exports), imports from Saudi Arabia were the fourth largest at $34.1 billion (7%), up 50% from the previous year.
    • Most of it was crude oil.

    (3) Iraq

    • It was India’s fifth largest trading partner in 2021-22 at $34.3 billion.

    (4) Qatar

    • The total trade was $15 billion, accounting for just 1.4% of India’s total trade, but the country is India’s most important supplier of natural gas.
    • Qatar accounts for 41% of India’s total natural gas imports.
    • The UAE accounts for another 11%.

    How much oil does India import?

    • More than 84% of India’s petroleum demand, which included crude oil and petroleum products, was met with imports.
    • The share of Persian Gulf countries in India’s crude imports has remained at around 60% over the last 15 years.
    • India sourced crude oil from 42 countries in 2021-22, up from 27 countries in 2006-07. Hence the sources are now more diversified.
    • In 2021-2022, the largest exporter of oil to India was Iraq, whose share has gone up from 9% in 2009-2010 to 22%.
    • Saudi Arabia has accounted for 17-18% of India’s oil imports for over a decade. Kuwait and UAE remain major oil exporters to India.
    • Iran used to be the second largest oil exporter to India in 2009-2010, its share went down to less than 1% in 2020-21, due to US sanctions.

    Why Gulf matters?

    Ans. Huge remittances

    • More than 13.46 million Indian citizens work abroad. If Persons of Indian Origin are added, this number goes up to over 32 million.
    • Counting only the 13.4 million non-resident Indians (NRIs), the Gulf has the largest numbers.
    • The UAE (3.42 million), Saudi Arabia (2.6 million) and Kuwait (1.03 million) together account for over half of all NRIs.
    • In terms of remittances from abroad, India was the largest recipient in 2020 at $83.15 billion, according to World Bank data.
    • This was nearly twice the remittances to the next highest recipient, Mexico, at $42.9 billion.
    • The UAE accounted for 26.9%, Saudi Arabia for 11.6%, Qatar for 6.4%, Kuwait for 5.5% and Oman for 3%.
    • Beyond the GCC, remittances from the US accounted for 22.9%, second only to the UAE.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What are Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs)?

    The CBI is in the process of sending requests to several countries seeking information under the MLATs about those involved in the online sexual abuse of minors and circulation of child pornographic material on social media platforms.

    What are MLATs?

    • The MLATs in criminal matters are the bilateral treaties entered between the countries for providing international cooperation and assistance.
    • These agreements allow for the exchange of evidence and information in criminal and related matters between the signing countries.

    Benefits of Treaty

    • It enhances the effectiveness of participating countries in the investigation and prosecution of crime, through cooperation and mutual legal assistance.
    • It will provide a broad legal framework for tracing, restrain and confiscation of proceeds and instruments of crime as well as the funds meant to finance terrorist acts.
    • It will be instrumental in gaining better inputs and insights in the modus operandi of organized criminals and terrorists.
    • These in turn can be used to fine-tune policy decisions in the field of internal security.

    Enforcing MLATs in India

    • The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is the nodal Ministry and the Central authority for seeking and providing mutual legal assistance in criminal law matters.
    • The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) may be involved in this process when such requests are routed through diplomatic channels by these Ministries.
    • Section 105 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) speaks of reciprocal arrangements to be made by the Centre with the Foreign Governments

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • China’s growing footprint in the Pacific Islands

    Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister of China, is currently on an eight-day visit to ten Pacific Island Countries (PICs) after the MoU failed to gain consensus among the PICs.

    What are the PICs?

    • The Pacific Island Countries are a cluster of 14 states which are located largely in the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean between Asia, Australia and the Americas.
    • They include Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Republic of Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.
    • The islands are divided on the basis of physical and human geography into three distinct parts — Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia.

    Geo-economics of PICs

    • The islands are very small in land area, and are spread wide across the vast equatorial swathe of the Pacific Ocean.
    • Even being the smallest and least populated states, they have some of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the world.
    • Large EEZs translate into huge economic potential due to the possibility of utilising the wealth of fisheries, energy, minerals and other marine resources present in such zones.
    • Hence, they prefer to be identified as Big Ocean States, rather than Small Island States.
    • In fact, Kiribati and FSM, both PICs, having EEZs larger than that of India.

    Strategic significance

    • PICs have played an important role in major power rivalry as springboards for power projection and laboratories for developing and demonstrating strategic capabilities.
    • The major powers of the colonial era competed with each other to gain control over these strategic territories.
    • The Pacific islands also acted as one of the major theatres of conflict during the Second World War — between imperial Japan and the US.
    • Due to the remoteness of these islands from major population centres of the world, some of the major nuclear weapon test sites of the US, UK and France were located here.
    • In addition, the 14 PICs account for as many number of votes in the United Nations, and act as a potential vote bank for major powers to mobilise international opinion.

    China’s vested interests in PIC

    • China does not have any particular historical linkages to the PICs unlike the Western powers.
    • Therefore, its interest in the PICs is of relatively recent origin, and is linked to China’s rise in the past few decades.
    • The PICs lie in the natural line of expansion of China’s maritime interest and naval power.
    • They are located beyond China’s ‘First Island Chain’, which represents the country’s first threshold of maritime expansion.
    • The PICs are located geostrategically in what is referred to by China as its ‘Far Seas’.
    • Their control will make Chinese Blue Water Navy capable, an essential prerequisite, for becoming a superpower in maritime domain.

    For the Taiwan narrative

    • China is preparing for what seems like an inevitable military invasion of Taiwan, sooner or later.
    • In this context, it becomes important to break Western domination of island chains of the Pacific.
    • This could otherwise impede reunification.
    • Wooing the PICs away from the West and Taiwan will therefore make the goal of Taiwan’s reunification easier for China.
    • Currently, only four PICs have recognised Taiwan. They are Tuvalu, Palau, Marshall Islands and Nauru.

    What are the implications of China’s latest move?

    • China has increasingly started talking about security cooperation in addition to its economic diplomacy towards the PICs.
    • In April 2022, China signed a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands, which raised regional concerns.
    • The PICs as a collective did not agree to China’s extensive and ambitious proposals, and therefore China failed to get a consensus on the deal.

    Why did the PICs refuted China?

    • PICs perceived that they could have negative implications for the sovereignty and unity of PICs and may drag them into major power conflicts in the future.
    • Some have argued that China has acted too boldly and has therefore met with such a debacle.
    • China might have also miscalculated the regional reaction, perhaps led by a monolithic understanding of the PICs after seeing Solomon Islands’ positive response earlier this year.

    A caution for the world

    • China can always come back with improvised plan (rather bigger lollipop) which is more acceptable and use it to further pursue its final objectives incrementally.
    • Moreover, this debacle does not stop China from pursuing bilateral deals of similar nature.

    Conclusion

    • The intensification of China’s diplomacy in PICs have made the powers who have traditionally controlled the regional dynamics like the US and Australia more cautious.
    • The US has started revisiting its diplomatic priority for the region ever since the China-Solomon Islands deal.
    • The role played by the US in mobilising opposition against China’s proposed deal could not be ruled out.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Explained: European Union’s ban on Russian Oil

    As part of the sixth package of sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union member states reached an agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude oil imports by the end of the year.

    Oil embargo on Russia

    • The proposal is to completely phase out Russian crude and refined products from EU territory.
    • It includes a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline crude and refined.
    • This however needed the agreement of all the 27 EU member states in order to be implemented.

    What was the rationale behind such a move?

    • The Russian economy is heavily dependent on energy exports, with the EU paying billions of dollars every month to Russia.
    • The EU wants to block this massive revenue inflow.
    • This is akin to Europeans bankrolling Russia’s war.

    Why such a move now?

    • The EU has been attempting, ever since the Ukraine invasion, to build consensus on ways to hurt Russia economically.
    • The most obvious route was to stop buying Russian energy, which isn’t easy given European households’ dependence on Russian oil and gas.

    What are the terms of the ‘compromise deal’ that has been agreed upon?

    • EU leaders have agreed to ban all seaborne imports of Russian crude, which account for two-thirds of EU’s oil imports from Russia.
    • Germany and Poland are pledging to phase out even their pipeline imports from Russia by the end of the year.
    • The embargo would eliminate 90% of Russian oil imports.

    Special concessions to Hungary

    • The remaining 10% that’s been allowed represents a free pass for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria to continue imports via the Druzhba pipeline, the world’s largest oil pipeline network.
    • Hungary has obtained a guarantee that it could even import seaborne Russian oil in case of a disruption to their pipeline supplies.
    • This was deemed a legitimate concession since the pipelines do pass through the war zone in Ukraine.

    Why was exemption given for pipeline imports?

    • The exemption for pipeline imports was made on the logic that landlocked countries (Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia).
    • They are heavily dependent on Russian pipeline oil and do not have a ready option to switch to alternative sources in the absence of ports.

    How will the sanctions affect Russia?

    • Analysts calculate that a two-thirds cut in Europe’s imports might cause Russia an annual loss in revenue of $10 billion.
    • Given Russia’s limited storage infrastructure, the cutback in demand would force Russia to find other markets.
    • Since that won’t be easy, Russia might have to cut production by 20-30%.
    • So far, Asian importers, especially India, have absorbed some of the excess inventory at discounted prices.

    Impact on the ongoing war

    • It remains unclear if the embargo would have any impact on Russian military operations in Ukraine.

    How will the sanctions affect Europe?

    • It is likely to further fuel inflation in Europe, where many countries are already facing a cost-of-living crisis.
    • European lifestyles have tended to take cheap Russian energy for granted, and if inflation peaks further, the EU runs the risk of losing public support for harsh sanctions.

    What about the import of Russian gas?

    • Compared to Russian oil, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is much greater, and this embargo leaves the import of Russian gas — which accounts of 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports — untouched.
    • In other words, Europe will continue to pay Russia for gas imports.
    • But since crude is more expensive than natural gas, the oil ban is expected to hurt Russian revenues.

    Indian response to these developments

    • India ramped up purchases of Russian crude at discounted prices in the months following the Russian invasion, and this policy is expected to continue.
    • The announcement of the EU ban caused an immediate surge in oil prices, and as Europe seeks alternate sources – from West Asia, Africa and elsewhere — for its oil needs, prices are expected to stay high.
    • In this context, with Russia reportedly offering discounts of $30-35 per barrel, India has found it convenient to make the most of the cheap Russian crude on offer.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India Bangladesh Relations

    Two years after they were stopped due to the onset of the pandemic, passenger train services between India and Bangladesh resumed with the Bandhan Express setting off from Kolkata for Khulna and the Maitree Express starting its run from Dhaka for Kolkata.

    History of Rail Connectivity

    • The Bandhan Express was resumed by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna, the third-largest city of Bangladesh.
    • In 1965, this route was served by the Barisal Express, which was stopped due to the India-Pakistan war.
    • The Modi government along with the Sheikh Hasina regime restarted that with Bandhan in 2017.
    • The Bandhan Express was the second train to be flagged off after the introduction of Maitree Express between Kolkata and Dhaka Cantonment in April, 2008.
    • It covers the distance between Kolkata and Khulna via Petrapole and Benapole border route to cater to the demands of the people from both the countries.
    • The Bandhan Express was resumed in 2017 by rebooting a long-forgotten rail link between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Khulna.

    Beyond passenger travel

    • The governments of both the countries have been working towards strengthening the rail link between them, and not just through passenger trains.
    • In August 2021, the two sides started regular movement of freight trains between the newly-restored link between Haldibari in India and Chilahati in Bangladesh.
    • The Haldibari-Chilahati rail link between India and the then East Pakistan was also operational till 1965 and stopped due to the war.
    • This was part of the broad gauge main route from Kolkata to Siliguri at the time of Partition.
    • The two sides envisage at least 20 freight trains to cross the border per month on this link.

    Rail infrastructure

    • Once part of a single, seamless railway network under British rule, trains continued to pass between the two countries even after the Partition.
    • The infrastructure to connect the two sides through railways was, therefore, largely present.
    • Policymakers on both sides viewed this as an opportunity to deepen diplomatic ties using cross-border movements of goods and passengers.
    • Five rail links have so far been rebooted between India and Bangladesh:

    Petrapole (India)-Benapole (Bangladesh), Gede (India)- Darshana (Bangladesh), Singhabad (India)-Rohanpur (Bangladesh), Radhikapur (India)-Birol (Bangladesh) and the Haldibari-Chilahati link

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Pak delegation in India for Indus Water Treaty talks

    A five-member Pakistani delegation has arrived in India for talks over the ongoing water dispute under the Indus Water Commission between the two countries.

    Why in news?

    • India is building 10 hydro plant projects to cut excess water into Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is expected to raise the projects being constructed by India under the Indus treaty.

    What is Indus Water Treaty?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty: Equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers.
    • Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • It may be listed among the most successful international treaties as it has withstood the test of time.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    A tacit nerve of terroristan

    • Responding to state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan, India can escalate a water war , which can kill the crippling economy of Pakistan.
    • If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Need for a rethink

    • But PM Modi’s words equally hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • There is no reason to believe that India could start a water war with Pakistan on humanitarian grounds.
    • Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Pacific Nations reject China Security Pact

    China has suffered a big diplomatic humiliation in the pacific. 10 island nations in the region rejected China’s proposed security pact.

    Why in news?

    • Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has returned empty-handed in a highly decorated visit to the Pacific Nations.
    • The secret deal that was to be brokered got leaked in public media, caused huge embarrassment to the Chinese.

    Conspicuous features of the Pact

    • China has had offered to radically ramp up its activities in the South Pacific, directly challenging the influence of the US and its allies in the strategically vital region.
    • The failed deal saw Beijing to:
    1. Train Pacific island police,
    2. Become involved in cybersecurity,
    3. Expand political ties,
    4. Conduct sensitive marine mapping and
    5. Gain greater access to natural resources on land and in the water
    • As an enticement, Beijing is offering millions of dollars in financial aid, the prospect of a potentially lucrative China-Pacific islands free trade agreement and access to China’s vast market.

    Why Pacific Nations rejected this lollipop?

    • The offer is perceived was “disingenuous” and would “ensure Chinese influence in government” and “economic control” of key industries.
    • The nations also cited a lack of regional consensus.

    Pls make observations about Pacific Island Nations:

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The return of the great power rivalries

    Context

    The post-Cold War period of peace in Europe is more an aberration than norm in the continent’s history of conflicts.

    Background of the First World War

    • The Russian power had collapsed in its far east after the war with Japan in 1904-05.
    • Faced with the erosion of Russian influence and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany, which together threatened to alter Europe’s balance of power, France and Britain, competing colonial powers, came together. 
    • France had already reached an alliance with Russia.
    • The three would later form the Triple Entente, triggering a dangerous security competition in Europe with the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy), which would eventually lead to the First World War in 1914.
    • What triggered the great power security competition in the run-up to the First World War was the phenomenal rise of Wilhelmine Germany as a military and industrial power and the regional hegemons’ response to it.

    Similarities with the past

    • When Otto von Bismarck became the Minister-President of Prussia in September 1862, there was no unified German state.
    •  Bismarck adopted an aggressive foreign policy, fought and won three wars — with Denmark, Austria and France — destroyed the confederation, established a stronger and larger German Reich that replaced Prussia.
    • Bismarck stayed focused on transforming Germany internally in his last two decades.
    • It was on the foundation Bismarck built that Wilhelmine Germany turned to weltpolitik in the early 20 century, seeking global domination.
    • If Bismarck inherited a weak, loosely connected group of German speaking entities in 1862, Russian President Vladimir Putin got a Russia in 2000 that was a pale shadow of what was the Soviet Union.
    • Bismarck spent his years in power expanding the borders of Germany and building a stronger state and economy.
    • The post-Cold War Russia initially stayed focused on the restoration of the state and the economy, and then sought to expand its borders and challenge the continent’s balance of power — first the Crimean annexation and now the Ukraine invasion.
    • While NATO’s expansion deepened Russia’s security concerns, driving it into aggressive moves, Russia’s aggression has strengthened NATO’s resolve to expand further into Russia’s neighbourhood.

    Offensive realism

    • Offensive realists argue that “revisionist powers” tend to use force to rewrite the balance of power if they find the circumstances are favourable, while the status quo powers, or the existing regional hegemons, would seek to thwart any new country attaining more power at their expense.
    • The result of this type of competition is permanent rivalry and conflict.
    • One major difference between the era of Wilhelmine Germany and modern Russia is that there were no well-defined international laws in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
    • The international system has evolved ever since.
    • But its basic instincts, as realists would argue, have not changed much.
    • Mr. Putin’s Russia is not the first country that violated the sovereignty of a weaker power and flouted international laws in the “rules-based” order.

    Future of Europe’s security

    • Russia apparently had two strategic objectives in Ukraine —
    • One, to expand Russian borders and create a buffer.
    • And two, to reinforce Russia’s deterrence against NATO.
    • While Russia has succeeded, though slowly, in expanding its borders by capturing almost all of Ukraine’s east, the war has backfired on its second objective.
    • Russia’s inability to clinch a quick outright victory in Ukraine and the tactical retreats it has already made have invariably dealt a blow to the perception of Russian power that existed before the war.
    • This has strengthened NATO, driving even Sweden and Finland into its arms. Besides, the economic sanctions would leave a long-term hole in Russia’s economy.
    • But a Russia that is bogged down in Ukraine and encircled by NATO need not enhance Europe’s security.
    • As Henry Kissinger said at Davos, Russia had been and would remain an important element in the European state system.

    Conclusion

    The prospects are bleak. There will not be peace in Europe unless either Russia accepts its diminished role and goes into another spell of strategic retreat or Europe and the West in general accommodate Russia’s security concerns. Both look unrealistic as of today.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Understanding the nature of US-Taiwan Relations

    The US President made a controversial statement on whether the US will come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in case of an invasion by China.

    What is the Taiwan issue?

    • Taiwan is an island territory located off the coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait.
    • After their defeat to the communist forces in the Chinese civil war (1945-1949), the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) government of China fled to Taiwan.
    • They transplanted the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China (CPC) established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the mainland.
    • Since then, the PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.

    Game changer: Cold war affiliations

    • Meanwhile, the ROC retained its membership at the United Nations and its permanent seat at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
    • The cross-strait relations became strained as a result of the Cold War, with the PRC allying itself with the Soviet Union (USSR) and ROC with the U.S.
    • This resulted in the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s.

    The US and One-China Principle

    • With the shifting geopolitics of the Cold War, the PRC and the U.S. were forced to come together in the 1970s to counter the growing influence of the USSR.
    • This led to the US-China rapprochement demonstrated by the historic visit of then US President Richard Nixon to PRC in 1972.
    • The same year, the PRC displaced ROC as the official representative of the Chinese nation at the UN.
    • Diplomatic relations with the PRC became possible only if countries abided by its “One China Principle” — recognizing PRC and not the ROC as China.

    Rise of Taiwan

    • Taiwan transitioned from a single party state to a multi-party democracy.
    • At the same time that China reformed its economic system under Deng Xiaoping, and by the end of the Cold War they became economically entangled.
    • Nevertheless, they continue to compete for international recognition and preparing themselves for the worst possible scenario.

    How has the US’s stance on the Taiwan question evolved vis-à-vis China?

    • The very foundation of the US rapprochement as well as its recognition of the PRC is a mutual understanding on the Taiwan question.
    • This has been outlined in three documents — the Shanghai Communique (1972), the Normalisation Communique (1979) and the 1982 Communique.
    • According to the 1972 communique, the US agreed to the ‘one China principle’, with an understanding that it “acknowledges” and “does not challenge” that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
    • It maintained that there is one China and Taiwan is a part of China.
    • However, the US also established unofficial relations with Taiwan through this communique in the name of the people of both the countries.

     Why is the issue significant today?

    • As Taiwan’s democracy flourished, the popular mood drifted towards a new Taiwanese identity and a pro-independence stance on sovereignty.
    • The past decade has seen considerable souring of ties across the Strait, as the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) became the most powerful political force in Taiwan.
    • The DPP government has been catering to the pro-independence constituency in Taiwan and seeks to diversify economic relations away from China.
    • China has always seen Taiwan as a territory with high geopolitical significance.
    • This is due to its central location in the First Island Chain between Japan and the South China Sea, which is seen as the first benchmark or barrier for China’s power projection.

    Why is China so obsessed with Taiwan?

    • Taiwan is at China’s geostrategic calculus.
    • Moreover, its reunification will formally bury the remaining ghosts of China’s “century of humiliation”.
    • China under Xi Jinping seems to have lost its patience and currently sees very slim chances of a peaceful reunification.
    • China usually makes aerial transgressions in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
    • Also, this build-up of tensions is happening simultaneously and drawing parallels with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

    Is US strategy towards Taiwan witnessing a major transformation?

    • The US strategy towards Taiwan in light of the unresolved nature of the cross-Strait relations has been marked by what has been called “strategic ambiguity”.
    • This is under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979.
    • As per the TRA, the US has stated clearly that the establishment of bilateral relations with the PRC rests upon “the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means”.
    • It also states the US policy to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
    • Hence, there is no clear guarantee here that the US will militarily involve in a situation where China attempts to invade Taiwan, short of supplying “defensive weapons”.

    Enjoying the ambiguity

    • The US has for long utilized this strategic ambiguity with its own interpretation of the ‘one China principle to maintain its strategic interests in the Western Pacific.
    • It is in this context that Mr. Biden’s statements have made controversy.

     

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • How the Quad can become more than an anti-China grouping

    Context

    On May 23, before the Quad leaders’ summit in Tokyo, the United States launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).

    Significance IPEF

    • The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will consist of a diverse group of 12 countries initially — Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
    • The IPEF — which covers fair trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonisation, among others — is likely to complement the other Indo-Pacific projects like the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI)  that also seeks to build resilient and secure trade linkages by reducing dependence on China.
    • Decoupling from Chinese over-dependence: The US-led economic engagement is a salient attempt to allow countries to decouple from Chinese over-dependence in order to ultimately strengthen the existing free and open rules-based global order.
    • Extension of plus grouping: The launch of IPEF signifies the essence of the Quad and its extension as a “plus” grouping.
    •  It brings together seven critical countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), all Quad states, and dialogue partners, including South Korea, solidifying a case for the “plus” characterisation of the Quad process.
    • Thus, it is an encouraging sign that the Quad countries are investing their strategic orientation in this regard.
    • Importantly, both the IPEF launch, and the Tokyo summit dispel any remaining misgivings about the Quad disintegrating and certify that it is a cohesive unit where it matters.
    •  It would potentially represent an amalgamation of the eastern and western “like-minded” countries.
    • The expanded grouping and the related Quad initiatives will build a comprehensive and integrated approach to combating shared challenges arising out of Chinese aggression.
    • A hallmark of Biden’s latest Asia visit has been South Korea’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific framework.
    • This is a long-awaited turn that could potentially lead to South Korea participating in a more meaningful manner in the Quad in the near future.

    Importance of Taiwan

    • Taiwan is a major economy in the Indo-Pacific region (as also the US’s eighth-largest trading partner in 2021 and a critical partner in diversifying the US supply chains), which is already engaged in the US-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue that includes many of the issues proposed in the IPEF.
    • The inclusion of Taiwan, which already has a critical role in the global semi-conductor supply chain network, in the SCRI and the IPEF as well as, by extension, in the Quad format, in some manner would be a welcome addition.
    • Geopolitical statement against coercive tactics: Importantly, Taiwan’s inclusion would also be a geopolitical statement against coercion tactics by international actors.

    Inclusivity characteristics based on a  commitment to the existing international order

    • In its current abstract framework, the plus framework includes a wide array of states (which also comprise the IPEF) — developing and developed economies as well as middle and major powers that are committed to maintaining an inclusive, rules-based and liberal institutional order.
    • The inclusivity angle is suspect as the grouping is essentially what China calls a US-led “anti-China” tool.
    • Therefore, what interested states must envision is a broad, all-embracing, and comprehensive framework that can stand as a pillar for regional security and stability, multilateralism, and defence of global institutionalism and the status quo.

    Conclusion

    States are showing their willingness, and now it is incumbent on the Quad states to allow for the creation of a “corridor of communication” that ultimately leads to a “continental connect” to strengthen a rules-based order.

    UPSC 2023 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)