đŸ’„Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (July Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: International Relations

  • India’s Ukraine dilemma

    Context

    As diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine continue, the time has come for Delhi to devote greater attention to Central Europe, which is at the heart of the contestation between Russia and the West.

    Recognising the role of Central Europe in shaping the geopolitics of Europe

    • Central Europe today has an identity of its own and the political agency to reshape European geopolitics.
    • It is important to remember that Central Europe is no longer just a piece of territory that Russia and the Western powers can divide into “spheres of influence”.
    • A grand bargain between Russia and the West will work only if it is acceptable to Central Europe.

    Need for diplomatic balancing on Ukraine by India

    • As war clouds gather over Ukraine, there is much focus on India’s diplomatic balancing act, its unwillingness to publicly caution Russia against invading Ukraine, and above all its reluctance to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty.
    • This is not the first time that Russia’s approach to Central Europe has put Delhi in a tight corner.
    • The Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, and Czechoslovakia in 1968, exposed an important tension in Indian diplomacy.
    • In Central Europe, India’s pragmatism in not offending Moscow (an important partner) runs against the utter unacceptability of Putin’s doctrine of “limited sovereignty”, a continuation of the Soviet era policy of saying that the socialist states must subordinate their sovereignty for the sake of the “collective interests of the socialist bloc”.

    Factors shaping India’s stand

    • Tension with China: The prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine comes amidst India’s military tensions with China and Delhi’s continued dependence on Moscow’s military supplies.
    •  It also comes at a time when Delhi is trying to build an international coalition against China’s brazen attacks on the territorial sovereignty of its Asian neighbours.
    • For the moment, Delhi is in a safe corner by calling for diplomacy in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
    • But if Russia does invade Ukraine, the pressure on India to rethink its position will mount.
    • Any such review must eventually lead to an independent appreciation of the geopolitics of Central Europe.

    Five factors that must shape India’s perspective on the geopolitics of Central Europe

    • 1] No taker for sphere of influence: Russia’s claim for a broad sphere of influence in the region has no takers in Central Europe.
    • 2]Need for political accommodation: While Russia has legitimate security interests in Central  Europe, they can only be realised through political accommodation.
    • Moscow cannot enforce a sphere of influence against the will of its prospective members.
    • 3] NATO as better option: few Central Europeans buy into the French vision for “European sovereignty” and “strategic autonomy”. 
    • They bet that NATO, led by the US, is a better option than a Europe that is independent of Washington.
    • They view with even greater distaste the prospects for Russo-German condominium over Central Europe.
    • 4] Resentment against imposition of political value:While they are eager to be part of the Western institutions, Central Europeans resent any attempt by the US and EU to impose political values that run against their traditional cultures.
    • 5] Sub regional institution: Central Europeans are eager to develop sub-regional institutions that can enhance their identity.
    • The Visegrad Four — Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia — is one of them.
    • The so-called “Three Seas Initiative” brings together 12 European states running in a vertical axis from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Adriatic and Black Sea in the south.

    Conclusion

    Delhi can’t forever view this critical region through the prism of Russia’s conflict with the West. It must come to terms with its growing strategic significance.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What is Permanent Indus Commission?

    A 10-member Indian delegation will visit Pakistan for the annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) from March 1-3.

    Agenda this year

    • Pakistan has some objections on Indian hydroelectric projects namely Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Lower Kalnai (48 MW) and Kiru (624 MW) in Chenab basin in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Pakistan has raised objections on the design of these projects.
    • India, however, asserts that the design of the project is fully compliant with the provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

    Permanent Indus Commission

    • The PIC is a bilateral commission consisting of officials from India and Pakistan, created to implement and manage the goals and objectives, and outlines of the IWT.

    Indus Waters Treaty, 1960

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Rights accorded to India

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Based on equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers. Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • Well-wishers of the treaty often dub it “uninterrupted and uninterruptible”.
    • The World Bank, which, as the third party, played a pivotal role in crafting the IWT, continues to take particular pride that the treaty functions.

    Need for a rethink

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, of late, India is under pressure to rethink the extent to which it can remain committed to the provisions, as its overall political relations with Pakistan becomes intractable.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Why do we need a refugee and asylum law

    Context

    A Private Member’s Bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha proposing the enactment of a Refugee and Asylum law.

    Why does India need a Refugee and Asylum law?

    •  The principle of non-refoulement: The international legal principle of non-refoulement — the cornerstone of refugee law, which states that no country should send a person to a place where he or she may face persecution.
    •  The principle of non-refoulement is clearly affirmed, with no exceptions, though reasons have been specified for exclusion, expulsion, and revocation of refugee status, to respect the Government’s sovereign authority but limit its discretion.
    • India is not signatory to Refugee Convention: India has been, and continues to be, a generous host to several persecuted communities, doing more than many countries, but is neither a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, nor does it have a domestic asylum framework.
    • The tradition of asylum: It will be in line with India’s millennial traditions of asylum and hospitality to strangers.
    • Because India has neither subscribed to international conventions on the topic nor set up a domestic legislative framework to deal with refugees, their problems are dealt with in an ad hoc manner, and like other foreigners they always face the possibility of being deported.
    •  It will finally recognise India’s long-standing and continuing commitment to humanitarian and democratic values while dealing with refugees.

    Multiple laws

    • In the absence of a uniform and comprehensive law to deal with asylum seekers, we lack a clear vision or policy on refugee management.
    • We have a cocktail of laws such as:
    • the Foreigners Act, 1946,
    • the Registration of Foreigners Act, 1939,
    • the Passports Act (1967),
    • the Extradition Act, 1962,
    • the Citizenship Act, 1955 and
    • the Foreigners Order, 1948 — all of which club all foreign individuals together as “aliens”.

    Defining refugee

    • Well-founded fear of persecution: The internationally-accepted definition of the term, includes people who have fled their home countries and crossed an international border because of a well-founded fear of persecution in their home countries, on grounds of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.
    • Who does not qualify as a refugee? This means that people who cross borders in quest of economic betterment, or because they are fleeing poverty, anarchy or environmental disaster, do not qualify as refugees.
    • Nor do those who flee from one part of their home country to another because of war, conflict or fear of persecution.

    Way forward

    • India must enact a National Asylum Law.
    • We need a proper framework to make sure that refugees can access basic public services, be able to legally seek jobs and livelihood opportunities for some source of income.
    • The absence of such a framework will make the refugees vulnerable to exploitation, especially human trafficking.
    • Our judiciary has already shown the way forward on this: in 1996, the Supreme Court of India ruled that the state has to protect all human beings living in India, irrespective of nationality, since they enjoy the rights guaranteed by Articles 14, 20 and 21 of the Constitution to all, not just Indian citizens.
    • The enactment and enumeration of refugee rights will reduce our dependence on judge-centric approaches — or even worse, the whims of Home Ministry bureaucrats, police officers and politicians.

    Consider the question “In the absence of a uniform and comprehensive law to deal with asylum seekers, we lack a clear vision or policy on refugee management. In the context of this, examine the need for law to deal with asylum seeker and suggest the various aspects the law should cover.” 

    Conclusion

    The problems of refugees worldwide are problems that demand global solidarity and international cooperation. India, as a pillar of the world community, as a significant pole in the emerging multipolar world, must play its own part, on its own soil as well as on the global stage, in this noble task.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India-UAE free trade agreement

    Context

    India has embarked on a new journey — a new free trade agreement (FTA) journey to be precise — with renewed zeal and vigor.

    India’s revamped FTA strategy

    • Gaining meaningful market access: India’s approach towards FTAs is now focusing more on gaining meaningful market access and facilitating the Indian industry’s integration into global value chains.
    • Under the revamped FTA strategy, the Government of India has prioritized at least six countries or regions to deal with, in which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) figures at the top of the list for an early harvest deal.
    • The others are the United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia, Canada, Israel, and a group of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
    • The early harvest deal is to be enlarged into a comprehensive FTA in due course of time.

    Why does the FTA with UAE matter?

    • Important economic hub: The UAE has emerged as an important economic hub not just within the context of the Middle East/West Asia, but also globally.
    • Strategic location: The UAE, due to its strategic location, has emerged as an important economic centre in the world.
    • Although the UAE has diversified its economy, ‘the hydrocarbon sector remains very important followed by services and manufacturing.
    • Within services, financial services, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate and business services are the main contributors.
    • As part of the GCC, the UAE has strong economic ties with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, meaning the UAE shares a common market and a customs union with these nations.
    • Under the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) Agreement, the UAE has free trade access to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Palestine, Syria, Libya, and Yemen.

    India-UAE trade and investment ties

    • India and the UAE established diplomatic relations in 1972.
    • The India-UAE total trade merchandise has been valued at U.S.$52.76 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year 2021-22, making the UAE India’s third-largest trading partner.
    • As India and the UAE strive to further deepen trade and investment ties, the soon-to-be-announced early harvest agreement comes at the most opportune time.
    • The aim is to boost bilateral merchandise trade to above U.S.$100 billion and services trade to U.S.$15 billion in five years.
    • Attractive export market: As we are witnessing a big turnaround in manufacturing, the UAE would be an attractive export market for Indian electronics, automobiles, and other engineering products.
    • Ninth biggest investor: The UAE’s investment in India is estimated to be around U.S.$11.67 billion, which makes it the ninth biggest investor in India.
    • On the other hand, many Indian companies have set up manufacturing units either as joint ventures or in Special Economic Zones for cement, building materials, textiles, engineering products, consumer electronics, etc.

    Challenges

    • The UAE tariff structure is bound with the GCC, and the applied average tariff rate is 5%. Therefore, the scope of addressing Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) becomes very important.
    • The reflection of NTBs can be seen through Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) which have mostly been covered by Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). The UAE has 451 SPS notifications.
    • Most of the notifications are related to consumer information, labelling, licensing or permit requirements and import monitoring and surveillance requirements.
    • These compliances pose a challenge for Indian exporters.

    Conclusion

    This FTA with the UAE will pave the way for India to enter the UAE’s strategic location, and have relatively easy access to the Africa market and its various trade partners which can help India to become a part of that supply chain, especially in handlooms, handicrafts, textiles and pharma.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India must prioritise stability in Myanmar

    Context

    One year ago, the military in Myanmar attempted to grab power from the elected civilian government in a dramatic coup. Meanwhile, the deposed civilian lawmakers who were elected in free-and-fair elections in November 2020 put together their own government known as the National Unity Government (NUG).

    The current situation in Myanmar

    • The coup faced popular resistance from the first day, with mass protests bringing the country to a halt.
    • According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, as of January 28, 1,499 civilians have been killed in Myanmar since the coup.
    • Dozens of civilian militias, called People’s Defence Forces (PDF), now armed with more sophisticated weapons, mushroomed in nearly every region and state.
    • Today, the military is having to fight on multiple fronts, as even powerful ethnic armed groups in the north, northwest, and east have joined forces with the PDFs.

    India’s approach towards situation in Myanmar

    • Balanced approach: Since the coup, India has taken a balanced diplomatic approach on Myanmar, calling for restraint, restoration of democracy, and release of political prisoners, but also maintaining its lines of communication with the military.
    • Avoiding sanctions: India has also firmly stayed away from imposing sanctions on the junta.

    Why does India need to recalibrate its approach?

    • The last 12 months have made it clear that the military is incapable of providing the kind of political, economic, and social stability that India needs in Myanmar to advance its interests, including development projects.
    • Public faith in the military as a state institution is at its lowest.
    • Northeastern border issue: For New Delhi, India’s Northeastern border with Myanmar remains on top of the bilateral agenda.
    • However, even on this, the military has damaged whatever semblance of stability was left.
    • Sagaing region, which borders three Northeast Indian states, has seen the highest number of clashes so far.
    • Chin state, bordering Mizoram and Manipur, has seen dramatic military offensives in civilian areas, which have forced thousands to flee into India.
    • The Myanmar military has roped in Manipuri insurgents as mercenaries to attack anti-junta forces, in exchange for safe haven.

    Way forward

    • New Delhi must reconsider its partnerships in Myanmar and invest in those entities that can not only provide a stable political environment overall but also effectively secure its security interests along the border.
    • The NUG enjoys much more mass popularity than the military, which means it is in a position to restore calm.
    • China has strong links with ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, but not with the new PDFs.
    • So, if India really wants to offset Chinese influence in Myanmar, it needs to take this opportunity to forge new friendships.

    Conclusion

    It is time India rapidly expanded its links with these entities, instead of playing by the old rules.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

    India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), saying it was “hijacked by vested interests” over its remark on Karnataka Hijab Row.

    What is OIC?

    • The OIC — formerly Organisation of the Islamic Conference — is the world’s second-largest inter-governmental organization after the UN, with a membership of 57 states.
    • The OIC’s stated objective is “to safeguard and protect the interests of the Muslim world in the spirit of promoting international peace and harmony among various people of the world”.
    • OIC has reserved membership for Muslim-majority countries. Russia, Thailand, and a couple of other small countries have Observer status.

    India and OIC

    • At the 45th session of the Foreign Ministers’ Summit in 2018, Bangladesh suggested that India, where more than 10% of the world’s Muslims live, should be given Observer status.
    • In 1969, India was dis-invited from the Conference of Islamic Countries in Rabat, Morocco at Pakistan’s behest.
    • Then Agriculture Minister Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed was dis-invited upon arrival in Morocco after Pakistan President Yahya Khan lobbied against Indian participation.

    Recent developments

    • In 2019, India made its maiden appearance at the OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Abu Dhabi, as a “guest of honor”.
    • This first-time invitation was seen as a diplomatic victory for New Delhi, especially at a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan following the Pulwama attack.
    • Pakistan had opposed the invitation to Swaraj and it boycotted the plenary after the UAE turned down its demand to rescind the invitation.

    What is the OIC’s stand on Kashmir?

    • It has been generally supportive of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir and has issued statements criticizing India.
    • Last year, after India revoked Article 370 in Kashmir, Pakistan lobbied with the OIC for their condemnation of the move.
    • To Pakistan’s surprise, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both top leaders among the Muslim countries — issued nuanced statements, and were not as harshly critical of New Delhi as Islamabad had hoped.
    • Since then, Islamabad has tried to rouse sentiments among the Islamic countries, but only a handful of them — Turkey and Malaysia — publicly criticized India.

    How has India been responding?

    • India has consistently underlined that J&K is an integral part of India and is a matter strictly internal to India.
    • The strength with which India has made this assertion has varied slightly at times, but never the core message.
    • It has maintained its “consistent and well known” stand that the OIC had no locus standi.
    • This time, India went a step ahead and said the grouping continues to allow itself to be used by a certain country “which has a record on religious tolerance, radicalism, and persecution of minorities”.

    OIC members and India

    • Individually, India has good relations with almost all member nations. Ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, especially, have looked up significantly in recent years.
    • The OIC includes two of India’s close neighbors, Bangladesh and Maldives.
    • Indian diplomats say both countries privately admit they do not want to complicate their bilateral ties with India on Kashmir but play along with OIC.

    Way ahead

    • India now sees the duality of the OIC as untenable, since many of these countries have good bilateral ties and convey to India to ignore OIC statements.
    • But these countries sign off on the joint statements which are largely drafted by Pakistan.
    • India feels it important to challenge the double-speak since Pakistan’s campaign and currency on the Kashmir issue has hardly any takers in the international community.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • World Food Programme (WFP)

    India signed an agreement with the United Nation’s World Food Programme (WFP) for the distribution of 50,000 tonnes of wheat that it has committed to sending Afghanistan as part of humanitarian assistance.

    What is WFP?

    • The WFP is the food-assistance branch of the United Nations (UN).
    • It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization focused on hunger and food security, and the largest provider of school meals.
    • Founded in 1961, it is headquartered in Rome and has offices in 80 countries.
    • In addition to emergency food relief, WFP offers technical assistance and development aid, such as building capacity for emergency preparedness and response, managing supply chains and logistics, etc.
    • The agency is also a major provider of direct cash assistance and medical supplies and provides passenger services for humanitarian workers.

    Feats achieved

    • As of 2020, it served 115.5 million people in 80-plus countries, the largest since 2012.
    • The WFP was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020 for its efforts to provide food assistance in areas of conflict and to prevent the use of food as a weapon of war and conflict.

    WFP in Afghanistan

    • The wheat will be taken through Pakistan to the Afghan border crossing and handed over to WFP officials in Kandahar.
    • The WFP runs its own logistics network inside Afghanistan, partnering with civil society groups.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Back in news: Liberation of Goa

    The PM recently took a jibe at then PM Nehru, saying that it could have liberated Goa in 1947 itself had Nehru sent the Indian Army there.

    What is the news?

    • Goa was liberated 15 years after India attained freedom.
    • PM Modi accused Nehru as guilty of leaving satyagrahis in the dismay, refusing to send the Indian Army to liberate Goa, even after 25 of them were shot dead by the Portuguese Army.

    Goa’s Colonization: A backgrounder

    • Goa became a Portuguese colony in 1510, when Admiral Afonso de Albuquerque defeated the forces of the sultan of Bjiapur, Yusuf Adil Shah.
    • The next four and a half centuries saw one of Asia’s longest colonial encounters — Goa found itself at the intersection of competing regional and global powers.
    • It received a religious and cultural ferment that lead eventually to the germination of a distinct Goan identity that continues to be a source of contestation even today.
    • By the turn of the twentieth century, Goa had started to witness an upsurge of nationalist sentiment opposed to Portugal’s colonial rule, in sync with the anti-British nationalist movement.

    Beginning of freedom movement

    • Tristao de Braganza Cunha, celebrated as the father of Goan nationalism, founded the Goa National Congress at the Calcutta session of the Indian National Congress in 1928.
    • In 1946, the socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia led a historic rally in Goa that gave a call for civil liberties and freedom, and eventual integration with India.
    • This event became a watershed moment in Goa’s freedom struggle.
    • At the same time, there was a thinking that civil liberties could not be won by peaceful methods, and a more aggressive armed struggle was needed.
    • This was the view of the Azad Gomantak Dal (AGD), whose co-founder Prabhakar Sinari is one of the few freedom fighters still living today.
    • Finally, Goa was liberated on December 19, 1961 by swift Indian military action that lasted less than two days.

    Recognition of Goa

    • The Supreme Court of India recognized the validity of the annexation and rejected the continued applicability of the law of occupation.
    • In a treaty with retroactive effect, Portugal recognized Indian sovereignty in 1974.
    • Under the jus cogens rule, forceful annexations including the annexation of Goa are held as illegal since they have taken place after the UN Charter came into force.

    Why was Goa left un-colonized?

    As India moved towards independence, however, it became clear that Goa would not be free any time soon, because of a variety of complex factors.

    • No immediate war: Then PM Nehru felt that if he launched a military operation (like in Hyderabad) to oust the colonial rulers, his image as a global leader of peace would be impacted.
    • Trauma of Partition: The trauma of Partition and the massive rupture that followed, coupled with the war with Pakistan, kept the Government of India from opening another front.
    • Internationalization of the issue: This might have led the international community to get involved.
    • No demand from within: It was Gandhi’s opinion that a lot of groundwork was still needed to raise the consciousness of the people, and the diverse political voices emerging within be brought under a common umbrella.

    Nehruvian dilemma

    • India’s global image: Nehru was headed in shaping India’s position in the comity of nations.
    • Trying peaceful options: He was trying to exhaust all options available to him given the circumstances that India was emerging from.
    • Portuguese obsession: Portugal had changed its constitution in 1951 to claim Goa not as a colonial possession, but as an overseas province.
    • Portugal in NATO: The move was apparently aimed at making Goa a part of the newly formed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military alliance. Hence the collective security clause of the treaty would be triggered.
    • Weak indigenous push: Nehru saw it prudent to pursue bilateral diplomatic measures with Portugal to negotiate a peaceful transfer while, at the same time, a more ‘overt’ indigenous push for liberation.

    Why did Nehru wait until December 1961 to launch a full-scale military offensive?

    India could no longer be seen to delay the liberation of Goa because:

    • Portuguese offensive against Satyagrahis: The firing incident also provoked a sharp response from the Government of India, which snapped diplomatic and consular ties with Portugal in 1955.
    • India as torchbearer of de-colonization: India got itself firmly established as a leader of the Non Aligned World and Afro Asian Unity, with decolonisation and anti-imperialism as the pillars of its policy.
    • Criticisms from African nations: An Indian Council of Africa seminar on Portuguese colonies organized in 1961 heard strong views from African as this was hampering their own struggles against the ruthless regime.
    • Weakening Colonialism: The delegates were certain that the Portuguese empire would collapse the day Goa was liberated.

    The debate in 2022

    • Politics needs to be charitable to history, because at some point it would be put to the same scrutiny and judgment as it becomes history itself.
    • Goa has seen 60 years of eventful liberation and successful amalgamation in the Indian Union.
    • It is more important for it to look ahead to its future than to rapidly receding, increasingly dim images in the rear-view mirror.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India and the Great Power rivalry

    Context

    Germany has become a weaker link in the Western coalition against Moscow and Beijing.

    The US-Russia-China power dynamics

    • There is a convergence between China and Russia on a range of issues from NATO expansion to the AUKUS alliance. 
    • Despite their problems with the US, both Moscow and Beijing want a productive partnership with Washington.
    • Both Russia and China want to leverage the united front to negotiate better terms from America.
    • Exploiting the contradiction between Russia and China: Washington, in turn, wants to explore the cleavages between Moscow and Beijing.
    • Focus on challenges from China: Biden’s outreach to Putin last year was based on the premise that the US could better focus on the challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific if there was a reasonable relationship with Russia in Europe.
    • Putin is trying to take advantage of that proposition by raising the stakes in Europe.
    • Exploiting economic means: If Putin is focused on military means to rewrite the European security order with the US, Xi is focused on the economic means to alter the US ties.
    • Xi is making a big play for the Wall Street bankers who see merits in engagement with Beijing and lobby Washington to scale down the confrontation with China.

    The US resilience

    •  The chaos of American domestic politics and the continuing arguments between the US and its European partners tend to amplify the disagreements within the West.
    •  It would be a mistake for Putin and Xi to mistake Western disagreements for strategic divergence.
    • Consensus on challenging China: The last few years have seen the quick emergence of a new US consensus on challenging China despite the polarisation of the American political class.
    • The idea that the US can’t risk a two-front challenge with Russia and China is popular but mistaken.
    • Power of the US and its allies: Despite the dramatic rise of China and its new partnership with Russia, the united front can’t really match the comprehensive national power of the US and its allies.
    • India is now a strategic partner of the US and faces growing challenges from China.
    • In Asia, Biden has revived the Anglosphere (the AUKUS alliance with the UK and Australia), elevated the Quad to the summit level, and reached out to the ASEAN.
    • In Europe, the US is getting NATO in order.
    • Britain has taken the lead in the diplomatic confrontation with Russia.
    • French President Emmanuel Macron is coordinating with the US in dealing with the Ukraine crisis.
    • Beyond the rebuilding of US alliances, Washington has an important lever which is the exploitation of the domestic political vulnerabilities of “Czar Putin” and “Emperor Xi”.

    Challenge for India

    • New dynamics between two coalitions: India’s approach will depend upon the new dynamic between the two coalitions as well as its own relations with China, Russia, and the US.
    • As both sides consolidate their global coalitions, it will get harder to be in the middle.
    • India would like to see Russia find accommodation with the West in Europe; but if Russia’s relations with the West deteriorate further in Europe, Delhi is unlikely to let Moscow undermine its growing partnership with the US and its allies.

    Conclusion

    With the return of great power rivalry coinciding with India’s deteriorating ties with China, Delhi now stands closer than ever before to the West.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Unitary Digital Identity Framework (UDIF)

    India has agreed to provide a grant to Sri Lanka to implement a ‘Unitary Digital Identity Framework’, apparently modelled on the Aadhaar Card.

    What is UDIF?

    • UDIF is apparently similar to India’s own Aadhaar.
    • Under the proposed UDIF it is expected to introduce a:
    1. Personal identity verification device based on biometric data
    2. Digital tool that can represent the identities of individuals in cyberspace and
    3. Identification of individual identities that can be accurately verified in digital and physical environments by combining the two devices

    (More updates awaited)

    Why such move?

    • SL has been receiving substantive economic assistance from India – totalling $ 1.4 billion since the beginning of this year.
    • India is helping the island nation cope with its dollar crunch, and import food, medicines and fuel amid frequent shortages.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)