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Subject: International Relations

  • Do Economic Sanctions work as a deterrent?

    The economic sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and the EU on Russia for going to war against Ukraine could prove to be detrimental to the country.

    What do economic sanctions mean?

    • Economic sanctions are penalties or bans that are levied against a country to push it to modify its strategic decisions.
    • They include withdrawal of customary trade and financial relations for security and foreign policy purposes.
    • Sanctions could result in cutting economic ties in every respect such as terms of trade, financial assistance, transit support, travel bans, asset freezes, and trade restrictions.
    • The curbs could also be targeted, thus restricting transactions with certain businesses, groups, or individuals.
    • Amid increased global and economic interdependence, they could prove to be detrimental for the targeted country.

    How do sanctions impact an economy?

    • No country can afford to be a closed economy.
    • The affected country’s supply chain gets disrupted in terms of the inflow of goods and services and for reaching out to the export markets.
    • In the former, there is a risk of the internal economy being crippled, especially if it depends on imports of critical raw materials.
    • The domestic economy could also be deprived of external market support.
    • The risk element is high especially in case of economic curbs being imposed collectively, such as by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What are the economic sanctions against Russia?

    • Major Russian banks have been banned from the SWIFT financial messaging service and their assets have been frozen.
    • Sanctions have been levied on the Russian Direct Investment Fund and against some of Russia’s wealthiest people.
    • Access to air-space has been denied and export controls introduced.
    • The countries imposing curbs on Russia account for 34% of world GDP.

    What is the cost of such restrictions?

    • This depends on the economic strength of the country being targeted.
    • Russia cannot be brushed aside as an ordinary economy.
    • The country is important to the global economy because of its oil reserves and access to nuclear power.
    • Russia is also a supplier of sophisticated defence products and is an important supplier of crucial defence products to India.
    • Given the long-term strategic nature of the relationship, India is abstaining from voting on resolutions to condemn Russia.

    How did India manage curbs after Pokhran-II?

    • India’s dependence on external assistance was more than $100 billion.
    • The government appealed to non-resident Indians (NRIs) whose annual savings were more than $400 billion.
    • NRIs’ subscription to government bonds was more than double the annual foreign assistance.
    • India could also showcase its scientific strength as none of the scientists involved were trained abroad.
    • This helped India display confidence, especially to investors.

     

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  • The complexities for implementing a No-Fly Zone

    The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General stated that the organisation would not designate the Ukrainian airspace as a ‘No Fly Zone’ which he said would lead to a full-fledged war in Europe, involving many more countries and resulting in greater human suffering.

    What is a No-Fly Zone ?

    • In simple terms, a No-Fly Zone refers to a particular airspace wherein aircraft, excluding those permitted by an enforcement agency, are barred from flying.
    • Articles under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter dealing with Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression’ are invoked to authorise a potential no-fly zone.
    • Article 39 dictates the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to determine the probable existence of any threat to peace or an act of aggression.
    • It suggests further measures, if required, are to be carded out in accordance to Article 41 and 42 to restore international peace and security.
    • No fly zones have been implemented without UN mandate too.

    Cases of implementation

    • In 1991 after the first Gulf War, U.S. and its coalition partners imposed two no fly zones over Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussain born attacking ethnic groups.
    • In non-combat situations, No fly zones can be imposed permanently and temporarily over sensitive installations or for high profile events like Olympics.

    What is the feasibility of ‘No fly zone over Ukraine?

    • No-fly zone declarations are essentially a compromise in situations demanding a response to ongoing violence, but full military intervention is politically untenable.
    • NATO has previously imposed No-Fly Zones in non-member states like Libya and Bosnia. With Russia it fears a full-fledged war in Europe.
    • It has been demanding that NATO scale back to the pre-1997 arrangements. Both Russia and Ukraine are not members of NATO.
    • Due to this the idea of imposing a no fly zone’ over Ukraine has been rejected outright.
    • If implemented, it means NATO deploying aircraft and assets which would result in a direct confrontation with Russia.

    What are the broad contours in a No-Fly Zone?

    • The UNSC had banned all flights in the Libyan airspace post adoption of Resolution 1973 in 2011 in response to the Libyan Civil War.
    • Member slates were asked to deny permission to any Libyan registered aircraft to use the territory without requisite approval.
    • Further, the member states could bar any entity from flying if they found reasonable grounds to believe the aircraft is ferrying lethal or non-lethal military equipment.
    • Member states were permitted to allow flights whose sole purpose was humanitarian, such as delivery of medical supplies and food, chauffer humanitarian workers and related assistance, or evacuating foreign nationals from the territory.

     

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  • FATF retains Pakistan on its terror funding ‘Grey List’

    The global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has retained Pakistan on its terrorism financing “grey list”.

    What is the FATF?

    • FATF is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering.
    • The FATF Secretariat is housed at the OECD headquarters in Paris.
    • It holds three Plenary meetings in the course of each of its 12-month rotating presidencies.
    • As of 2019, FATF consisted of 37 member jurisdictions.

    India and FATF

    • India became an Observer at FATF in 2006. Since then, it had been working towards full-fledged membership.
    • On June 25, 2010, India was taken in as the 34th country member of FATF.
    • The EAG (Eurasian Group) is a regional body comprising nine countries: India, Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Belarus.

    What is the role of FATF?

    • Watchdog on terror financing: The rise of the global economy and international trade has given rise to financial crimes such as money laundering.
    • Recommendation against financial crimes: The FATF makes recommendations for combating financial crime, reviews members’ policies and procedures, and seeks to increase acceptance of anti-money laundering regulations across the globe.

    What is the Black List and the Grey List?

    • Black List: The blacklist, now called the “Call for action” was the common shorthand description for the FATF list of “Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories” (NCCTs).
    • Grey List: Countries that are considered safe haven for supporting terror funding and money laundering are put in the FATF grey list. This inclusion serves as a warning to the country that it may enter the blacklist.

    Consequences of being in the FATF black list:

    • Economic sanctions from IMF, World Bank, ADB
    • Problem in getting loans from IMF, World Bank, ADB and other countries
    • Trade sanctions: Reduction in international trade
    • International boycott

    Pakistan and FATF

    • Pakistan, which continues to remain on the “grey list” of FATF, had earlier been given the deadline till June to ensure compliance with the 27-point action plan against terror funding networks.
    • It has been under the FATF’s scanner since June 2018, when it was put on the Grey List for terror financing and money laundering risks.
    • FATF and its partners such as the Asia Pacific Group (APG) are reviewing Pakistan’s processes, systems, and weaknesses on the basis of a standard matrix for anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) regime.

     

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  • Decay in the international rules-based order

    Context

    The unexpected Russian military intervention in Ukraine is merely the latest symptom of an underlying cause of decay in the international ‘rules-based’ order.

    Background of the idea of international rules-based order and sovereignty

    • It was the Diet of Westphalia (in the then Holy Roman Empire) in 1648 that first set out what our post-World War II global institutional framework established as the principle of ‘sovereignty’.
    • Sovereignty was for a long time the singular bedrock, the very founding principle that the UN Charter sought to firmly establish, in order to make wars of aggression (as opposed to self-defense) illegal under international law, and liable to be punished by the international community via the UN Security Council and its right to use coercive force.

    What is a state?

    • State is a community that feels as one, accepts a set of common guiding principles and is constituted by member states who are willing to operate according to rules / norms of behaviour.
    • There has always been a theoretical debate in the discipline, drawing on elements of philosophy, psychology and even economics, on whether or not we actually live in an international society of states or whether it is still merely a system of states.
    • System of states: A system of states is a very complex landscape consisting of individual actors who possess coercive power to varying degrees, have zero-sum ambitions to varying degrees, adhere to global ‘rules’ to the extent that they are convenient or exigent at a moment, while being willing to covertly and overtly bend and even break those rules, when core national interests are involved.
    • In the second interpretation, states are engaged in game-theoretic, rational-utilitarian cooperation, competition and even conflict, depending on the specificities of each situation.
    • In a nutshell, it is a highly complicated theoretical and practical situation wherein simplistic, moralising explanations and narratives about events are typically wrong and often misleading or counterproductive.

    UN and the issue of enforcement

    • Forces like the internet and social media, combined with the cultural dominance of the West, portended a gradual spread of democratic values.
    • The biggest challenge to this kind of perspective usually came from the ‘realist’ camp of International Relations researchers who argue that argue that in the absence of effective enforcement of rules, the notion of such rules was an empty idea.
    • Enforcement was theoretically meant to happen by way of the Security Council.
    • However, this plan was stillborn due to the fundamental unwillingness of the five permanent members to countenance a possibility of global action against themselves and the consequent injection of the notion of a ‘veto’ in the world’s highest security-focused body.
    • This has meant that for the entirety of the UN’s existence, true Security Council intervention in an international crisis has only been possible in the rarest of rare exceptions when all five permanent members happened to agree.

    Threat to rule-based order

    • The foregoing analysis allows us to conclude that far from being an isolated incident that for the first time since the UN Charter was drafted has violated our rules-based order, the Russian intervention in Ukraine is a significant further erosion in the believability of anyone’s claims that such a thing actually exists.
    • All states have shown their willingness to conduct foreign policy at the cost of others.
    • Most states in the last few decades have provided international rules with a lot of ‘lip-service’ while using clandestine methods to achieve their aims.

    Nuclear weapons as a source of stability

    • The notion of ‘mutually assured destruction’ created a tension that seemed to preclude even conventional warfare between two nuclear-armed rivals.
    •  Most interestingly, with the separation of seven decades between Hiroshima / Nagasaki and the present, a gradual shift in the calculus of defence planners seems to have occurred.
    •  From the sense that a mere conventional conflict would be sufficient trigger for a power to exercise a nuclear option, planners seem to have gained a new comfort with nuclear weapons in existence.
    • They no longer seem to believe they will be used short of an existential threat.
    • Russia equally feels confident that merely asserting its core security interests in Ukraine will not draw a nuclear response from NATO.
    • Waning American dominance combined with a retreat of global norms and a lessening nuclear deterrent to armed conflict and the rise of new power centres in Asia are a potent mix of new dynamics in our world.

    Conclusion

    Never since the establishment of our post-war global system has it been under such significant threat. India must take stock and with extreme vigilance approach its entire gamut of cooperative, competitive and adversarial options while navigating this wholly new world out there.

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  • Why NATO isn’t sending troops to Ukraine?

    Amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been rapidly deploying troops to member countries but has clarified that it has no plans of sending them to Ukraine.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5 and why is it needed?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why has Article 5 not been invoked this time?

    • The reason is simple: Ukraine is a partner of the Western defence alliance but not a NATO member.
    • As a result, Article 5, or the Collective Defense Pledge, does not apply.
    • While NATO has said it will not be sending troops to Ukraine, it did invoke Article 4, which calls for a consultation of the alliance’s principal decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council.
    • In its history, it has only been activated half a dozen times.
    • But the fact that this time around eight member nations chose to invoke it was enough to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation at a global level.

    What may prompt NATO to invoke Article 5?

    • NATO will invoke Article 5 only if Russia launches a full-blown attack on one of its allies.
    • Some top US officials have warned of the impact of some of Russia’s cyberattacks being felt in NATO countries.
    • When you launch cyberattacks, they don’t recognize geographic boundaries.
    • Some of that cyberattack could actually start shutting down systems in eastern Poland.

    But what is NATO’s problem with Russia?

    • Russia has long been opposed to Ukraine’s growing closeness with European institutions, particularly NATO.
    • The former Soviet republic shares borders with Russia on one side, and the European Union on the other.
    • After Moscow launched its attack, the US and its allies were quick to respond, imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth funds.

     

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  • Switzerland’s Neutral Foreign Policy

    Switzerland broke its 200-year long neutrality policy to sanction Moscow and its leaders.

    What is the news?

    • Switzerland announced that it would join the European Union (EU) in closing the Swiss airspace to Russian aeroplanes.
    • It also wished for imposing financial sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders.

    Switzerland’s Policy of Permanent Neutrality

    • The tiny Alpine nation the size of Haryana has had a neutrality policy in place since 1815.
    • Its official website attests to this, noting that “permanent neutrality is a principle of Swiss foreign policy.”
    • Though it serves as the headquarters of several diplomatic missions and as the venue for historic treaties like the Geneva Convention, Switzerland is not a part of the European Union or NATO.
    • Historically, the Swiss had been famed warriors with expansionist ambitions until the 1500s when they lost the Battle of Marignano to the French.
    • The years that followed saw the Swiss shift its foreign policy to that of being an armed impartial state during wartime, a stance which was sorely tested in the decades that followed.

    The World Wars and Switzerland

    • Switzerland shares borders with Germany, France and Italy.
    • During WW II, Switzerland found itself surrounded by Axis forces, with Hitler describing the land-locked territory as “a pimple on the face of Europe”.
    • It used a combination of military deterrence, strategic planning and economic neutrality to hold its own in 1940s Europe.
    • Besides this, the Swiss pursued a policy of armed neutrality, putting into place compulsory military service (which continues till date) to maintain military readiness in event of an invasion.

    Recent deviations

    • Switzerland joined the United Nations as recently as 2002, putting an end to years to debate after 54 per cent of its population voting in favour of the move.
    • The Swiss federal government had said that it had weighed its neutrality and peace policy considerations into account to reach its decision.
    • The Swiss government has initially adopted a traditional and very narrow interpretation of neutrality, which translated to a decision to not issue any sanctions.
    • However, the Swiss parliament and citizens strongly pushed back, arguing that Russia’s massive military aggression cannot be tolerated.
    • This prompted the government to reconsider its position.

     

     

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  • What constitutes a War Crime?

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague announced that it would open an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

    What are War Crime?

    • War crimes are defined as serious violations of humanitarian laws during a conflict.
    • There are specific international standards for war crimes, which are not to be confused with crimes against humanity.
    • The definition is established by the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
    • It is derived from the 1949 Geneva Conventions and is based on the idea that individuals can be held liable for the actions of a state or its military.
    • There is a long list of acts that can be considered war crimes.
    • The taking of hostages, willful killings, torture or inhuman treatment of prisoners of war, and forcing children to fight are some of the more obvious examples.

    How to identify war crimes?

    To decide whether an individual or a military has committed a war crime, international humanitarian law lays down three principles:

    1. Distinction: This principle says that you have to be constantly trying to distinguish between civilian and belligerent populations and objects.
    2. Proportionality: It prohibits armies from responding to an attack with excessive violence. If a soldier is killed, for example, you cannot bomb an entire city in retaliation.
    3. Precaution: It requires parties to a conflict to avoid or minimize the harm done to the civilian population. For example, attacking a barrack where there are people who have said they no longer participate in the conflict can be a war crime.

    Do war crimes constitute to genocides?

    • The UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect separates war crimes from genocide and crimes against humanity.
    • War crimes are defined as occurring in a domestic conflict or a war between two states.
    • However, genocide and crimes against humanity can happen in peacetime or during the unilateral aggression of a military towards a group of unarmed people.

    Discrepancy in defining war crimes

    • In practice, there is a lot of gray area within that list.
    • The laws of war do not always protect civilians from death. Not every civilian death is necessarily illegal.
    • Raids on a cities or villages, bombing residential buildings or schools, and even the killing of groups of civilians do not necessarily amount to war crimes — not if their military necessity is justified.
    • The same act can become a war crime if it results in unnecessary destruction, suffering and casualties that exceed the military gain from the attack.
    • Also civilian and military populations have become increasingly hard to distinguish

     

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  • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

    The Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said it was putting on hold and reviewing all projects in Russia and Belarus.

    About AIIB

    • The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank with a mission to improve social and economic outcomes in Asia, began operations in January 2016.
    • It aims to stimulate growth and improve access to basic services by furthering interconnectivity and economic development in the region through advancements in infrastructure.
    • AIIB has now grown to 102 approved members worldwide. US & Japan are not its members.
    • It is a brainchild of China. It has invested in 13 member regions.

    Capital and shareholding of AIIB

    • It has authorized capital of US 100 billion dollars and subscribed capital of USD 50 billion.
    • It offers sovereign and non-sovereign finance for projects in various sectors with an interest rate of London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus 1.15 % and a repayment period of 25 years with 5 years in grace period.
    • China is the largest shareholder in AIIB with a 26.06% voting power, followed by India with 7.62% and Russia with 5.92% voting power.

     

    Try this question from CSP 2019

    Q.With reference to Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), consider the following statements

    1. AIIB has more than 80 member nations.
    2. India is the largest shareholder in AIIB.
    3. AIIB does not have any members from outside Asia.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”si6cvunasz” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • What is WHO’s Pandemic Treaty?

    Members of the World Health Organisation (WHO) held the first round of negotiations towards the pandemic treaty on February 24, 2022.

    What is the Pandemic Treaty?

    • In December 2021, the World Health Assembly agreed to start a global process to draft the pandemic treaty.
    • The need for an updated set of rules was felt after the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the shortcomings of global health systems.
    • The Health Assembly adopted a decision titled “The World Together” at its second special session since it was founded in 1948.
    • Under the decision, the health organization established an intergovernmental negotiating body (INB) to draft and negotiate the contents of the pandemic treaty in compliance with Article 19 of the WHO Constitution.

    What is it likely to entail?

    • The pandemic treaty is expected to cover aspects like data sharing and genome sequencing of emerging viruses and equitable distribution of vaccines and drugs and related research.
    • Solutions to the COVID-19 pandemic have seen an inequitable distribution of vaccines so far, with poorer countries at the mercy of others to receive preventive medication.

    Why need such treaty?

    • Most countries have followed the “me-first” approach which is not an effective way to deal with a global pandemic.
    • A widely-accepted theory points that the novel coronavirus may have jumped from animals to humans in a wildlife market of China.
    • Many nations want a ban on wildlife markets.

    Issues in negotiations

    • While the EU wants the treaty to be legally binding, the U.S., Brazil and India have expressed reservations about the same.
    • The legal nature of the treaty is yet to be defined.

     What is Article 19 of the WHO Constitution?

    • Article 19 of the WHO Constitution gives the World Health Assembly the authority to adopt conventions or agreements on matters of health.
    • A two-third majority is needed to adopt such conventions or agreements.
    • The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control was set up under Article 19 and it came into force in 2005.

     

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  • Egypt hikes Suez Canal transit fees for ship

    Cash-strapped Egypt increased transit fees for ships passing through the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most crucial waterways, with hikes of up to 10%.

    Suez Canal

    • The Suez Canal is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia.
    • Constructed by the Suez Canal Company between 1859 and 1869, it officially opened on 17 November 1869.
    • The canal was earlier controlled by British and French interests in its initial years but was nationalized in 1956 by Egypt’s then leader Gamal Abdel Nasser.
    • It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez.
    • Its length is 193.30 km including its northern and southern access channels.

    Its significance

    • The Suez Canal provides a crucial link for oil, natural gas and cargo being shipping from East to West.
    • About 10% of global trade, including 7% of the world’s oil, flows through the Suez Canal.
    • It provides a major shortcut for ships moving between Europe and Asia, who before its construction had to sail around Africa to complete the same journey.
    • As per a report, the canal is a major source of income for Egypt’s economy, with the African country earning $5.61 billion in revenues from it last year.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q.Between India and East Asia, the navigation time and distance can be greatly reduced by which of the following?

    1. Deepening the Malacca straits between Malaysia and Indonesia.
    2. Opening a new canal across the Kra isthmus between the Gulf of Siam and Andaman sea.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) Both 1 and 2

    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”3lvew8ij5q” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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