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Subject: International Relations

  • [op-ed snap] A multilateral alternative, by Asia

    Context

    After the gap of 200 years, Asian economies are once again larger than the rest of the world combined.

    The Asian Century

    • Providing an alternative order: With the rise of India and China, Asia is providing a multilateral alternative to the world base on values.
    • Asian Century corresponds to the re-emergence of the two countries, leveraging the size and technological competence
    • Civilizational values: Both countries have civilisational values that are different from the west.
    • Peaceful existence: In the case of India and China balance of power is a western construct and both lived in peace across the ages.
    • The rise of China on the global landscape: In 2013, after attaining 15% of global wealth, announced the multilateral Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In 2014, launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, challenging the global governance paradigm.
    • India in 2015, established the International Solar Alliance, laying out a distinct global sustainable development framework.
    • Current multilateralism and its problems: The U.S. has recognised the ‘Asian Century’ bypassing multilateralism and recognised Indo-Pacific construct.
    • The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of intellectual property rights into the trade regime point to the colonial origin of the present order.

     

    New Framework- Country-specific to global value chain

    • Changing competition: Competition is moving from country-specific to fragmented competition based on global value chains.
    • Imposing the U.S. determined national security standards has led to only a handful of countries agreeing to ban Huawei for 5G technology.
    • The U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran that have affected India’s interests.
    • A different approach of China: It is based on “common interests” as different from the agreed goals of a negotiated treaty. BRI is an example of this.
    • It optimise not maximise the financial returns with countries remaining out of it.
    • The BRI offers the benefit of integration and connectivity with European markets to the member countries.

    Potential of BRI

    • It acts as a strategic framework: It provides a strategic framework for new global institution building.
    • Its scope is as wide as multilateral treaties.
    • Internationalizing the Renminbi: With state-owned enterprises in the infrastructure sector in the sector in BRI and backing from national banks is internationalising the Renminbi.
    • Developing blockchain bases infrastructure: As a leader in digital transactions, China is developing blockchain-based infrastructure in BRI countries. Thus reducing the dependence on the dollar.

    The shared interest of India and China

    • RCEP: China and the rest of the countries are eager that India joins the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is poised to become the largest trading block.
    • Security and border dispute: With the U.S. pivot to Asia, China is eager to resolve the dispute with India to avoid constraints.
    • Huawei: India has rejected American opposition to Huawei taking part in 5G trials, India allowed all applicants to participate.

        The emergence of new values

    • The emergence of the new order should not be seen through a western prism.
    • The triumvirate: India, the U.S., and China are intertwined with each other. China was the largest supplier of the goods to the U.S. in 2018 and it has been India’s major trading partner.
    • They take part in limited sectoral cooperation on a regional basis.
    • Both the U.S. and China have a regular high-level discussions on strategic issues with India.

        Area of future differences

    • In Asia, differences will center on overlapping priorities.
    • Security-The U.S.’s effort to maintain hegemony.
    • Economy-China’s emphasis on connectivity, markets, and growth.
    • An equitable and sustainable development-India-led framework of digital infrastructure designed as a public good.

       Conclusion

    With the rise of India and China in Asia and the presence of the U.S. with them is going to make the new order centered around Asia a new reality in the near future.

  • [pib] Mutual Legal Assistance

    In furtherance to India’s policy of zero tolerance for crime and in an endeavor to fast track the dispensation of justice, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has issued Revised Guidelines for Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters.

    Mutual Legal Assistance guidelines

    • They aim to enhance and streamline the process of international mutual legal assistance in criminal matters.
    • By incorporating various legal and technological developments in the recent years, it aims to make the documentation in this regard more precise and focused as well as compliant with International requirements.
    • The guidelines have also taken into account the concerns raised by various courts for prompt and timely responses in service of documents on persons residing abroad.
    • As an initiative, the revised guidelines have provision for service of documents on authorities of foreign country preferably within 10 days of receipt of request in respect of offences committed against women and children.

    Why need Mutual Legal Assistance?

    • The transnational nature of crime and digital explosion has blurred geographical boundaries for criminal activities.
    • Availability of evidence and criminals outside the sovereign jurisdiction of countries has necessitated the transformation of scope and nature of conventional investigation.

    MLA treaties

    • India has entered into Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties/ Agreements with 42 countries and is signatory to various international conventions i.e. UNCAC, UNTOC etc.
    • The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is the designated ‘Central Authority’ for India. Generally, assistance is sought and received in the form of Mutual Legal Assistance Requests/Letters.

  • [op-ed snap] Amidst a tragedy, an opportunity

    Context

    The raging fire in Australia gives provides an opportunity for India and Australia to deepen their dialogue including on energy.

    Scope for the two countries

    • At this moment India and Australia have a rare opportunity to translate their converging interests into a partnership.
    • At Australia India Leadership Dialogue last month in Melbourne, the breadth and depth of the relationship was evident.
    • As a consequence of the bushfires, the debate on global warming, climate change and fossil fuels is going to intensify in the weeks ahead.
    • Environmental activism has gained ground throughout Australia.
    • Indian Ocean Dipole may have triggered the drought that is related to the fires.
    • The campaign against fossil fuels and the export of coal is sure to intensify.
    • India and Australia are two economies with a great stakeholding in fossil fuels.
    • It is critical for India and Australia to ensure that their dialogue on energy acquires momentum.
    • Both countries must simultaneously strengthen the International Solar Alliance and the search for other alternative green fuels.

    Common threat of China

    • Leadership Dialogue also recognised that we are living through a period of immense turbulence, disruption, and even subversion.
    • Presence of assertive China is the single biggest challenge to our two countries.
    • In India, there is a consensus that the Australia-India relationship is an idea whose time has well and truly come.

    Area of coordination

    • India and Australia can work on the area of water management to trauma research to skill and higher education.
    • Both the countries can also work in the area of maritime security, cybersecurity, counterterrorism,
    • In a survey, Indians ranked Australia in the top four nations towards which they feel most warmly.
    • Both have a strategic interest in ensuring a free, open, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.
    • Indians are today the largest source of skilled migrants in Australia.
    • there is need for an early conclusion of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement.

     Conclusion

    There is a large scope for both countries to coordinate on wide issues like energy, research, security and work together for the benefit of both countries.

     

     

  • UAE’s new 5-year visa scheme

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a five-year multiple-entry visa scheme for all nationalities, in a move that is geared towards promoting tourism in the country.

    What is UAE’s new visa scheme?

    • According to the Dubai-based Gulf News, prior to this, tourists could get single or multiple-entry visas for a duration of 30 or 90 days.
    • In the new five-year multiple-entry system, visa holders may be allowed to stay for six months at a stretch.
    • The details of the scheme are yet to be announced. The country’s Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship will be implementing the decision.
    • Travellers from Africa, some South American countries, Arab states outside the Gulf, and European states from outside the European Union and the former Soviet Union previously needed visas.
    • The UAE currently receives more 2.1 crore tourists annually, and has recently increased its pace of rolling out policies to boost its trade and tourism sectors.

    Other reforms

    • In July 2019, the UAE allowed women employed in the country to sponsor work permits for their husbands, fathers, and adult children, and reduced the fees for obtaining work permits by 50 per cent to 94 per cent for 145 services and transactions.
    • In the same month, the Emirate of Dubai said it would accept the Indian rupee (INR) for transactions at duty-free stores.

  • [op-ed snap]The U.S. is weakened by Soleimani’s killing

    Context

    Targeted killing of powerful Iranian Major-General could have done more bad than good for the U.S.

    Series of events after the assassination

    • The Iraqi parliament voted to expel the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and deny them access to its airspace, land or water.
    • Pro-Iranian groups could attack across the region where thousands of U.S. troops and official personnel are stationed.
    • Soleimani’s assassination has awakened the deep strain of Iranian patriotism.
    • And Iran is not alone.
    • In Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Soleimani the “glue that held the Resistance Axis together”.
    • The U.S threat of striking “52 Iranian sites” did not win the U.S. any support on the international stage.
    • Even the Europeans, otherwise steadfast with the U.S. in these sorts of adventures, hesitated.
    • Arab League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed concern over the situation and asked for calm.
    • This is the same man who had, only a few weeks ago, accused Iran of sowing chaos in the region.
    • It is likely that China and Russia will table a resolution at the UN that calls for calm as well as criticises the U.S.
    • This will certainly be vetoed by the U.S.

    Desperate and irrational policy

    • Till now the U.S. has not been able to extricate itself from its illegal war against Iraq.
    • That war provided a massive advantage to Iran not only in Iraq but also across the region.
    • This is what terrified two of the U.S.’s allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom pressured Washington to increase its threats against Iran.
    • S. create the conditions for the rise of the worst kind of violence in Iraq, and later Syria
    • It also weakened the strategic position of its allies.
    • No attempt by the U.S. to regain its authority has worked.
    • The U.S. policy against Iran and Iraq appear desperate and irrational.

    Conclusion

    • The U.S recklessness has isolated it further and deepened anxieties amongst its increasingly isolated regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  • What is Jus Cogens?

    The US has threatened to target few historical sites if Iran retaliates to attack US in revenge. This is a breach of JUS COGENS as targeting cultural sites amounts to a a war crime.

    Jus Cogens

    • The jus cogens rules have been sanctioned by the Vienna Conventions on the Law of Treaties of 1969 and 1986. According to both Conventions, a treaty is void if it breaches jus cogens rules.
    • Jus Cogens or ius cogens, meaning “compelling law” in Latin, are rules in international law that are peremptory or authoritative, and from which states cannot deviate.
    • These norms cannot be offset by a separate treaty between parties intending to do so, since they hold fundamental values.
    • Today, most states and international organisations accept the principle of jus cogens, which dates back to Roman times.

    What does the convention say?

    • Article 53 of the 1969 Convention says: “A treaty is void if, at the time of its conclusion, it conflicts with a peremptory norm of general international law.
    • For the purposes of the present Convention, a peremptory norm of general international law is a norm accepted and recognized by the international community of States as a whole as a norm.
    • From this no derogation is permitted and which can be modified only by a subsequent norm of general international law having the same character.
    • Article 64 says- If a new peremptory norm of general international law emerges, any existing treaty which is in conflict with that norm becomes void and terminates.
    • Besides treaties, unilateral declarations also have to abide by these norms.

    What is included in jus cogens?

    • So far, an exhaustive list of jus cogens rules does not exist.
    • However, the prohibition of slavery, genocide, racial discrimination, torture, and the right to self-determination are recognised norms.
    • The prohibition against apartheid is also recognised as a jus cogens rule, from which no derogation is allowed, since apartheid is against the basic principles of the UN.

    What is the problem with targeting cultural heritage?

    • Following the unparalleled destruction of cultural heritage in World War II, the nations of the world adopted at The Hague in 1954, The Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict.
    • It was the first international treaty focussed exclusively on the protection of cultural heritage during war and armed conflict.
    • The Convention defined cultural property as “movable or immovable property of great importance to the cultural heritage of every people, such as monuments of architecture, art or history, whether religious or secular; archaeological sites….”, etc.
    • There are currently 133 signatories to Convention, including countries that have acceded to and ratified the treaty.
    • Both the United States and Iran (as well as India) signed the Convention on May 14, 1954, and it entered into force on August 7, 1956.
    • The Rome Statute of 1998, the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court, describes as a “war crime” any intentional attack against a historical monument, or a building dedicated to religion, education, art, or science.

  • [op-ed of the day]Spotting an opportunity in changing fundamentals

    “Phase one” of the trade deal between the U.S. and China notwithstanding, the ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China and other changing scenarios could turn out opportunities in various forms for India.

    Oil prices windfall

    • Slack demand and increased production by the U.S., had lowered oil prices which was good news for India.
    • It could also help India address its current account deficit.
    • But oil prices have surged more than 4% following the killing of Iranian general by the U.S.
    • An outbreak of hostilities could send the oil prices soaring.
    • India’s energy import from the U.S. is likely to touch $10 bn by 2019-20.
    • While China is increasing its stake in Saudi Aramco- one of the largest oil production company in the world.
    • China is also increasing its ties with the other oil producers which gives China the opportunity to increase its naval presence in the Indian Ocean increasing the Strait of Hormuz.

    On trade front

    • According to the State Bank of India report-Ecowrap, India has scarcely benefited from the trade war.
    • Of the $35bn decline in China’s export to the U.S. $21bn was diverted to the other countries and the rest $14bn was made good by the U.S. producers.
    • India contributed only $755-million of this diversion.
    • The U.S. tariff made some other players-Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam even more competitive.
    • China is facing pork shortage but India exports pork indirectly through Vietnam, increasing its cost and reducing market share.
    • China’s thrust on the AI, robotics, autonomous vehicles, and space technology has raised the U.S. suspicion, raising the prospects of high-tech war.
    • The big three Chines high-tech companies, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent together invested $5bn in India.
    • India could use this opportunity to insist China open its market for the IT sector and other tech exports.
    • India has allowed all the players including Huawei to participate in the 5G trials but the outcomes are far from over.
    • With all that said, the U.S.-China tensions drive supply chains out of China, with the right policies as Vietnam has done, India could emerge as an alternative destination.
    • Restriction by the U.S. on  China could lead to difficulties in reducing emissions and mitigate climate change in China.
    • Restrictions on technology export often lead to an increase in domestic research.
    • So, China could succeed in developing all the technologies that are denied to it by the U.S. under the restrictions.
    • With the protests in Hong Kong showing no signs of abating, India may have to cater to refugees of Indian origin if things turn uglier.

    Key regional issues

    • The situation in the South China Sea is in favour of China as it already has occupied several of them.
    • Though India is a member of “Quad” dialogue on border issues, it has no role in negotiating the “Code of Conduct” with the ASEAN.
    • On the connectivity issues, the U.S. position is helpful for India. Recently the U.S. criticised China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
    • India is not a member of the Indo-Pacific Business Forum created by the U.S., Japan, and Australia.
    • India is also not a member of Blue Dot network created by the U.S., Japan, and Australia.
    • In future India might have to reconcile its regional connectivity issues with BRI projects that have mushroomed in the region.
    • On the ideological fronts, China is so emboldened by its economic success that it seeks to challenge the liberal democratic model and offers an alternative based on its own system.
    • India might have to contend with the greater Chinese presence in the Asia-Pacific theatre.

    Conclusion

    India’s relations with the U.S. and Chinas growing influence in economic as well as all the other sphere represents multiple challenges for India and are likely to grow in the future.

  • [op-ed of the day]Bracing for global impact after Soleimani’s assassination

    Context

    The recent targeted killing of Commander of Quds Forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by the US raised the tension in the region to a new high level. The imminent blowback from Iran could have several consequences for the rest of the world including India.

    Different from past killings

    • Though the U.S. has carried out many such targeted killings in the past but this case bears two important differences to the past killings.
    • Unlike Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr, Gen. Soleimani was a state actor.
    • Unlike the above mentioned two, he was not past his prime.

    Roles played by Gen. Soleimani

    • He was the founder-commander of Iran’s Quds Force-formed for extra-territorial operations.
    • He enhanced Iran’s influence in the Arab countries by leveraging the disarray in the region.
    • Arab countries with a significant Shia population such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen came under Iranian influence.

    What could be the fallouts

    • Tit-for-tat between Iran and the U.S. could easily go out of hand and precipitate into a major confrontation.
    • Both countries have domestic compulsions- there are elections due in both countries.
    • These compulsions limit options for both countries to low-intensity skirmishes.
    • The fact that the killing was carried on the Iraqi soil also assumes significance.
    • The incident could increase the problems in Iraq which is rocked by three months of youth protests against undue foreign interference by both Iran and the U.S.
    • The event is also likely to re-polarise the Iraqi society along sectarian lines.
    • In the worst-case scenario Iraq could turn into the new Syria.

    Potential fallout for India

    • Global oil prices have already seen a 4% rise in within hours of the incident.
    • India has already faced difficulty in maintaining relations with both countries because of the U.S.-Iran cold war.
    • While we want to be on the right side of the U.S., our ties with Iran apart from being civilisational have their own geostrategic logic.
    • With conflict turning hot, its adverse impact on India could magnify.
    • High oil prices will definitely increase our import bill and increase difficulties in supplies.
    • Safety of an estimated 8 million expatriates in the Gulf may be affected.
    • Iran could influence the U.S.-Taliban peace process in Afghanistan which in turn increases India’s woes.
    • After Iran, India has a large number of Shia population and some of them could be radicalised due to the event.

    Conclusion

    The event, if turn into a wider conflict between the two countries, could have many consequences for India from soaring oil prices and maintaining the balance between the two countries to the safety of expatriates in the Gulf.

  • Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement

    Pakistan has recently shared a list of its nuclear installations with India under the said bilateral agreement.

    Exchange of list of nuclear installations

    • The list was handed over to an Indian High Commission in accordance with Article-II of the Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks against Nuclear Installations and Facilities between Pakistan and India.
    • It was signed on December 31, 1988.
    • The agreement contains the provision that both countries inform each other of their nuclear installations and facilities on 1st of January every year.

    What is Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement?

    • The Non-nuclear aggression agreement is a bilateral and nuclear weapons control treaty between India and Pakistan, on the reduction (or limitation) of nuclear arms.
    • Both pledged not to attack or assist foreign powers to attack on each’s nuclear installations and facilities.
    • The treaty was drafted in 1988, and signed by the PM Rajiv Gandhi and his counterpart Benazir Bhutto on 21 December 1988; it entered into force on January 1991.
    • The treaty barred its signatories to carry out a surprise attack (or to assist foreign power to attack) on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities.
    • Starting in January 1992, India and Pakistan have annually exchanged lists of their respective military and civilian nuclear-related facilities.

  • [Op-ed snap]The new worry of depleting diplomatic capital

    Context

    India’s recent actions at home like the decision to amend Article 370, or the CAA 2019, may take a toll on its international relations.

    Effects on the relation with the U.S. and Europe:

    • In the U.S. bipartisan support for India had been the norm for at least two decades.
    • The dwindling of Democrat support was evident early on during the “Howdy Modi” event in September 2019.
    • In that event, only three out of the two dozen lawmakers at the event were from the Democratic Party.
    • In the weeks that followed the event, the State Department and several bipartisan committees have issued statements of concern over continued detentions in Kashmir and the CAA.
    • They also held hearings in the U.S. Congress, and even referred to Kashmir in the annual Foreign Appropriations Act for 2020.
    • The same issue found a voice in the U.K. parliament.
    • In the European Parliament, there was also discussion on Kashmir.
    • Kashmir became a campaign talking point between Labour and Conservative candidates in the U.K. elections.

    Deterioration in relations with Bangladesh and the neighbourhood

    • In the neighbourhood, Pakistan is predictably angry.
    • While Afghanistan is more muted.
    • The real damage has been done to ties with Bangladesh.
    • In the last decade, Dhaka and New Delhi had worked hard on building connectivity, opening energy routes, trade and developing travel links.
    • Bangladesh is upset for being clubbed together with Afghanistan and Pakistan on the issue of treatment of minorities.
    • At the same time, Bangladesh’s repeated requests for help on the Rohingya refugee issue were unheeded.
    • The OIC plans for a special meet on Kashmir and the CAA in April 2020.
    • If Bangladesh which defends India at the OIC feels that India’s actions are discriminatory, Arab countries could also become more vocal.

    Possible fallouts

    • The U.S. Commission for International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has already recommended sanctions be considered against Home Minister.
    • In the U.S. Congress lawmakers can effectively block defence sales to India, or pursue sanctions on the S-400 missile system purchase from Russia.
    • On the international stage, the United Nations and its affiliated bodies could provide a platform for India to be targeted.
    • At FATF, India hopes to blacklist Pakistan for terror financing.
    • Break in ties with Turkey and Malaysia for their comment at UN on Kashmir could also lead them to veto India’s position at the FATF.
    • Unrest in the country could lead to a lower number of foreign visitors and visit cancellation/postponement by leaders.
    • All this also takes a toll on its diplomatic resources that have been diverted for much of the year in firefighting negative international opinion.

    Conclusion

    • The government must consider the impact of its domestic actions on India’s diplomatic capital.
    • This capital is a complex combination of the goodwill the country has banked on over decades as a democratic, secular, stable power, bilateral transactions it can conduct in the present, and the potential it holds for future ties, particularly in terms of its economic and geopolitical strengths.