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Subject: International Relations

  • ASEAN-India and East Asia Summit 2015

    This article embrace a focus on two powerful regional blocs at the ASEAN-India and East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Stay tuned to India-ASEAN and East Asia Summit, as we capture it in detail.

     

    Let’s take a quick track overview

    • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand.
    • The Founding Fathers of ASEAN were, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
    • Since then, membership has expanded to include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), and Vietnam.
    • The creation of ASEAN was motivated by a common fear of communism, and a thirst for economic development.

    What’s the main purpose of ASEAN?

    • To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership.
    • In order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations.
    • To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields.

    What are the significant outcomes of the ASEAN Summit 2015?

    • ASEAN leaders declared the establishment of an EU-style regional economic bloc, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), a single market with a free flow of goods, capital and skilled labour in the region.
    • The AEC envisages a single market with a free flow of goods, capital and skilled labour across borders in the highly competitive economic region.
    • It will integrate Southeast Asia’s diverse economies, a region with 620 million people and a combined GDP of $2.4 trillion.
    • For the people at large, the declarations imply increased economic opportunities and access to quality jobs, wider choices and better quality products and services.

     

    Let’s take a glance at the East Asia Summit?

    • East Asia Summit is a unique Leaders-led forum of 18 countries of the Asia-Pacific region formed to further the objectives of regional peace, security and prosperity.
    • Established in 2005, EAS allows the principal players in the Asia-Pacific region to discuss issues of common interest and concern in an open and transparent manner at the highest level.
    • It is an initiative of ASEAN and is based on the premise of the centrality of ASEAN.

    Six priority areas of regional cooperation in EAS framework

    • Environment and Energy.
    • Education.
    • Finance.
    • Global Health Issues and Pandemic Diseases.
    • Natural Disaster Management.
    • ASEAN Connectivity.

    How many members benchmarked to the list?

    The membership of EAS consists of ten ASEAN Member States and Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation and the USA.

    So, What’s the healthy news for India in summit?

    • The leaders of the East Asia Summit are expected to discuss matters of international concern including terrorism, irregular migration, the South China Sea, the situation in Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East.
    • The negotiations on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement involving the 10 ASEAN countries and its six FTA partners including India have seen some breakthroughs and are expected to be concluded in 2016.
    • The agreement will open doors for Indian business in the RCEP countries having a combined GDP of USD 17 trillion.
    • At the ASEAN summit, the leaders will take note of the new Plan of Action (2016-2020) to further enhance ASEAN-India cooperation along the politico-security, economic and socio-cultural pillars.

    How does this summit addresses the talk on South China Sea disputes?

    • China claims almost the entire energy-rich South China Sea.
    • It prompted concerns in Washington and across the region that China is trying to militarise its claims in the South China Sea.
    • The Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also have territorial claims in the South China Sea.

    Can ASEAN ever solve the South China Seas dispute through multilateral dialogue?

    • For the last two decades ASEAN has invested enormous time and effort in multilateral forums to promote peace and security in East Asia.
    • Evaluating ASEAN’s role in managing the problem in the South China Seas reveals that far from addressing this evolving conflict over international rights of free passage on the high seas, its weak multilateral approach only further stirs already troubled waters.
    • On the surface, ASEAN’s softly-softly approach seemed to bear fruit with an ASEAN-China Free trade agreement and a Declaration of a Code of Conduct to manage disputes in the South China Sea in 2002.

    What is the biggest threat facing the world today?

    Is it about China’s hegemony over South China Sea?

    • Beijing’s comfort with the ASEAN process culminated in 2002 in the signing of a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
    • The South China Sea dispute ultimately demonstrates how more powerful actors can manipulate ASEAN’s weak multilateral dialogue process to advance grand strategic interests.
    • China, in other words, is successfully engaging ASEAN in a policy of divide and rule.
    • For instance, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that, Beijing wanted any disputes resolved in negotiations between it and ASEAN on the basis “of historical facts and in accordance with international law” and that China and ASEAN were working on a code of conduct.

    All of which is to say, peace on Chinese terms!

     

    Published with inputs from Arun

  • US policy wise : Visa, Free Trade and WTO

  • G20: The Antalya Summit 2015 – Everything that you should know

    This article gives you an overview of G20, since its formation to latest key achievements in 2015 Summit. Stay tuned to India and G20 as we capture the antalya summit 2015 in detail.

    G20 in a quick fast track glance

    Together, the G20 economies account for –

    • 85% of the global economic output
    • 80% of world trade, and
    • 65% of the global population.

    Which of the 20 members make promise of inclusive and robust growth in 2015?

    Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the European Union.

    Let’s take a Historical dive on G20

    • The G20 was formally established on 26 September, 1999, at the Finance Ministers’ meeting of G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis.
    • The G20 convened for the first time at the leaders’ level in Washington, D.C. on November 14-15, 2008, to respond collectively to the 2008-09 crisis.
    • In order to restore global growth, strengthen the global financial system, and reform international financial institutions.
    • The G20 played a key role in supporting the first stages of economic recovery and continues to promote measures to reform international financial institutions, improve financial regulation, and strengthen the global economy through an increasingly comprehensive agenda.
    • This year, Turkish G20 Presidency’s theme is “Collective Action for Inclusive and Robust Growth”.

    Okay, how’s the structure of G20?

    • The G-20 operates without a permanent secretariat or staff. (Take a Note of it, it may form a prelims’ question)
    • The group’s chair is part of a revolving three-member management group of past, present and future chairs, referred to as the “Troika”.
    • The role of the Troika is to ensure continuity in the G-20’s work and management across host years.
    • Turkey will host the 2015 summit in Antalya, while China will host the 2016 summit in Hangzhou.

    Then, what is the role of Asian countries?

    • A 2011 report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted that large Asian economies such as China and India would play a more important role in global economic governance in future.
    • The report claimed that the rise of emerging market economies heralded a new world order, in which the G-20 would become the global economic steering committee.
    • The ADB furthermore noted that Asian countries had led the global recovery following the late-2000s recession.
    • It predicted that the region would have a greater presence on the global stage, shaping the G-20’s agenda for balanced and sustainable growth through strengthening intraregional trade and stimulating domestic demand.

    G20-info

    What are the significant outcomes of Turkey’s G20 presidency in 2015?

    #1. Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth

    • Antalya Action Plan including national and global steps for strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
    • Adjusted Growth Strategies, including policies towards inclusiveness, in line with recent economic developments.

    #2. Investment and Infrastructure

    • G20 Investment Strategies and G20/OECD Report on G20 Investment Strategies.
    • PPP Guidelines: World Bank Group Infrastructure Deliverables.

    #3. International financial Architecture

    • Strong emphasis on the importance of the full implementation of the 2010 IMF Quota and Governance Reform.
    • Leaders provided a strong momentum to completion of the SDR basket review so as the basket continues to reflect the role of currencies in the global trading and financial system.

    #4. International Tax

    Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action Plan finalised.

    #5. Climate Change Finance

    Leaders committed to work together to for a successful outcome of the COP21 and a fair, balanced, ambitious, durable and dynamic agreement.

    #6. Development

    G20 and Low Income Developing Countries (LIDC) Framework
    G20 Food Security Action Plan

    #7. Trade

    • Statement of a strong support for a successful WTO Nairobi Ministers Conference with balanced outcomes on Doha Development agenda issues and guidance for post-Nairobi.
    • Report on better integration of SME and LIDC’s into the Global Value Chains.

    What are the India’s concerns and reform agenda?

    • Prime Minister Modi had expressed hope earlier, that the US would ratify the quota reforms of the International Monitoring Fund, a key demand of the developing countries.
    • Optimistic news came about that, G20 communique backed India on the issue of IMF quota reforms and called for early reforms, and expressed disappointment with the delay.

    Why is there need of IMF Quota review reform?

    • The IMF quota reforms are aimed at giving more voice and voting power to the emerging economies with regard to the functioning of the multilateral body.
    • Once the review takes effect, India’s share will increase from the current 2.44 per cent to 2.75 per cent, following which the country will become the eighth largest quota holder at the IMF, up from the 11th position.

    Does G20 would helped to resolve syrian crisis?

    • The Guardian reports that Obama and Putin at G20, agreed that the United Nations will negotiate a peace deal between the Syrian government and the rebel groups.
    • Putin also thanked David Cameron for sharing intelligence suggesting IS had taken down a Russian plane. Whether this means President Assad’s time is up is unclear.
    • We’re a long way from a proper strategy to bring peace to Syria. However, Russia and the West talking is still a big step forwards.
    • It also may mean countries will begin working more closely together to combat IS. May be!
    Published with inputs from Arun

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-ASEAN

  • Vienna Conference to end Syria’s endless agony

    This article gives you an understanding of how perplex and deepened Syria Crisis is , and solutions from Global Interests in it. Stay tuned to Syria Crisis and World.

     

    What’s the Vienna conference ?

    • The conference at Vienna on October 30, bringing together 17 states (China, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the UK, and the US), ended with a nine-point joint communique.
    • The United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) were also represented at the conference.
    • This is the third such attempt to hold talks to find a way to bring to an end Syria’s complicated issues.

    Historical Background

    Previous two attempts, Geneva 1 (June 2012) and Geneva 2 (February 2014), can be correctly characterised as insincere and cynical theatre, for 4 reasons:

    • Iran, an important stakeholder, willing and able to frustrate any search for a political solution that excludes it, was not invited.
    • With the US-supported rebels given undue weightage, not all the opposition parties in Syria were invited.
    • Principal initiators, the US and Russia, more intent on scoring points over each other.
    • By inviting warring Syrian parties, including the Bashar al-Assad regime, their external supporters found it difficult to talk frankly among themselves.
    • The exclusion of Syria this time in Vienna is a wise step.

    The highlights of the communique

    • Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and secular character are fundamental, and imperative to promote all efforts to end the war.
    • The Islamic State (IS) and other terrorist groups, as designated by the UNSC, must be defeated.
    • The UN is invited to convene a conference of representatives of the Syrian Government and the Opposition to start a political process leading to credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance followed by a new constitution, and an election under the UN supervision.
    • In parallel with political process, participants along with UN will explore modalities for a nationwide ceasefire to be effective.

    What’s the principal bone of contention? Is it about Assad’s position?

    • Probably, it is the US, Saudi Arabia, and their allies who have given in.
    • Till now, they have been repeating that Assad is not part of the solution and that the political process cannot start without his leaving office.
    • After the Russian military intervention, Assad’s position, from a military point of view at least, has improved.
    • The changed US position is that Assad has to go, but not on day one the political process starts. The US has wisely changed its position.
    • It is rather naĂŻve to say that if Assad steps down, Syria will rapidly see the end of the civil wars.

    vienna-infograph

    What has been discussed in Vienna ?

    • The participants at the conference were not willing to put the ceasefire as an immediate goal.
    • It should be noted that the US announced its plans to send Special Forces to Syria the day the conference started.
    • Further, the Saudi decision to send more and better weapons to rebels supported by it remains unchanged.
    • In short, it was far from a gathering of powers with common goals keen to work together to find solutions.

    What about the Islamic State (IS) ?

    • It will not be invited to be part of the political process. Nor is it likely to agree to be part of the process even if invited.
    • Is it the intention of some of the participants, if not all, to reconcile Assad and all the non-IS rebels and thereafter put together a grand coalition against the IS?
    • How long will it take to put together such a coalition assuming that an attempt will be made?

    Is there a shift in the US policy ?

    • For Obama, it was a painful decision to send Special Forces, “less than fifty”, to Syria.
    • Their mission is to “help coordinate local ground forces and coalition efforts”.
    • In other words, the Special Forces will not assist forces fighting Assad’s regime.
    • Obama has found it difficult to answer cogently his critics at home who fault him with a weak and incoherent policy on Syria.

    Are there any concerns from Russia’s side ?

    • Surely, Russia has raised concerns about a ‘proxy war’ and urged closer consultations with the US to take care of deconfliction.
    • Looking ahead, if there is no settlement before the US presidential election due in a year’s time, Obama’s successor might step up the military involvement taking the US closer to a ‘proxy war’ with Russia.

    Then, has Vienna reached to a conclusion?

    • In conclusion, the Vienna Conference could lead over time to a ceasefire between Assad and the non-IS rebels, but it is too soon to say that it will.
    • The key powers adding fuel to the fire of the multiple civil wars raging in Syria have yet to reach the conclusion that it is in their interest to stop doing that.
    • The conference might not have been held but for the Russian bombing campaign and the inundation of Europe by refugees.
    • The US policy towards Syria is slowly changing and it is difficult to say whether it will be dragged deeper into the quagmire that Syria is.

    What is painfully clear is that we all are going to witness more killing, more refugees, and more talking, Isn’t it ? It is difficult, not to recall the Roman poet Ovid’s lines penned twenty centuries ago:

    Video meliora, proboque; deteriora sequor
    (I see better things and approve; I follow the worse)

     

    Published with inputs from Arun

  • Contention over South China Sea

    • Why in news?
    • Background
    • Importance of South China Sea
    • What is the case about?
    • Are Chinese claims valid?
    • What next?
    • India’s involvement in issue
    • Further role by India

    Why in news?

    • The Permanent Court of Arbitration at Hague has declared that China cannot claim any historic rights over islands in the South China sea. The tribunal also ruled that China has violated Philippines’s sovereign rights.
    • The dispute had been raised by Philippines in 2013. However, China had refused to participate in the tribunal proceedings, questioning jurisdiction among other things.
    • After the tribunal announced the verdict, China has officially announced it has neither accepted nor recognised the award of the tribunal.
    • This award had been looked forward to by many countries including India and USA, both of which have strategic maritime as well as economic interests in the region.

    source

    Background

    • The South China Sea is located at the western edge of the Pacific Ocean, to Asia’s southeast.
    • It encompasses an area of about 1.4 million square miles and contains a collection of reefs, islands and atolls, including the Spratly Islands,Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal.
    • China has been claiming the historic control of over 85% of South China Sea, while countries like Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei also have been making competing claims.

    Importance of South China Sea

    • It is a 3.5m sq km waterway.
    • One of the world’s most strategically vital maritime spaces.
    • More oil passes through here than the Suez Canal.
    • More than $5 trillion in trade flows through its waters each year. That is a third of all global maritime commerce.
    • The Strait of Malacca that links Indian and Pacific Oceans handles four times as much oil as Suez Canal.

     What is the case about?

    • Philippines brought its dispute with China to international arbitration in January 2013, despite Beijing’s warnings of a diplomatic and economic backlash.
    • The Philippines asked a tribunal of five arbitrators to declare as invalid China’s vast claims, known as nine-dash lines for the dashes that demarcate virtually all of the South China Sea as Chinese territory, under the United Nation Convention on the Law of the Seas, or UNCLOS.
    • The Philippines also asked the tribunal to classify whether a number of disputed areas are islands, low-tide coral outcrops or submerged banks to determine the stretch of territorial waters they are entitled to under the convention.
    • It also wants China to be declared in violation of the convention for carrying out fishing and construction activities that breached the Philippines’ maritime rights.

    Are Chinese claims valid?

    • China had joined UNCLOS long before and has accepted international jurisdictions.
    • However, their current discourse is that China was not the party to the rule making and hence, China has some hesitation in fully following the UNCLOS provisions.
    • The Chinese proposal is that SCS is a territorial sea which means that freedom of navigation would be problematic, although they clarified that they are not obstructing the freedom of navigation or have obstructed before.

    What next?

    • The award can’t be enforced as Chinese have rejected it.
    • What is going to be instructive is how China will respond as PCA doesn’t have any enforcement mechanism.
    • UNCLOS has made it very clear that if a country has equivalent of manmade islands, which is what is at dispute here, the country does not have a maritime entitlement.
    • There is a claim which says that China’s territorial water goes up to 2000 kms!! which is quite untenable.
    • Thus, Chinese response is going to be very critical. However, the first sign of foreign office statement from Beijing has been very categorical. They have used ‘null and void’ to answer the verdict, which is very strong.

    India’s involvement in issue

    From India’s perspective, the freedom of navigation and overflight is critical for two reasons:

    • Lot of India’s trade passes through SCS. Therefore, India cannot accept the situation where India is dependent on the goodwill of Chinese for transit.
    • If China manages to establish its sovereignty over these islands and waters, then it becomes a very important base for its power projection in the Indian Ocean. This is what concerns India.

    India is at present, not taking sides between the contestants in the dispute. So, the Indian position is balanced. At this stage, when it is talked about geopolitical dimension, India should continue this stand.

    Further role by India

    • The role India could play while awaiting China’s response is to engage in a chat with Beijing and cite the India-Bangladesh example that there is a case of principles and that India is taking no position on territoriality but is talking about the way in which maritime practice and law must be respected because that has bearing on the larger issues of global order.
    • India can try to deal with each of the major stakeholders in its own way as it has in the past.

    References:

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Southeast Asia

  • Foreign Policy Watch: Indo-Pacific and QUAD

  • India-Africa Forum Summit: Old Friends – Old Family

    It’s likely to be the biggest diplomatic event in independent India’s political history. Never have more than 39 heads of states gathered in the country.

    • The India-Africa forum summit on October 29, four-day summit meeting between India and 54 African nations, aimed at deepening the spirit of partnership, strengthening international solidarity and expanding cooperation.
    • India hopes to create conditions that stimulate trade and investment flows between India and African countries.

    What is India-Africa Forum Summit and how did it start?

    • The India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) is a celebration of the close partnership between Africa and India, started in 2008.
    • It was decided to hold the summits every three years, alternately in India and Africa. New Delhi was the venue in 2008 and Addis Ababa in 2011.
    • The third summit, scheduled to be held in 2014, was postponed because of the Ebola outbreak, and will now be held in Delhi from October 26 to 29.

    Reasons behind such an initiative?

    • Economically, Africa is very resource-rich, and has moved from being an underdeveloped continent to having several fast-growing economies, and new democracies.
    • Strategically, there are key shared interests in battling global terrorism, and piracy in the Indian Ocean.
    • Politically, India’s ambition to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council makes it imperative that it engages with all 54 countries of the continent.
    • New Delhi would also want a stronger partnership with Africa on climate change ahead of the COP-21 in Paris.

    How did it help in the development process of the African continent?

    • In the past three years alone, 25000 Africans have been trained or educated in India.
    • The Pan Africa e-network , which now connects 48 African countries, is becoming the new highway of regional connectivity and human development.
    • Under the India Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) programme, over 100 officials from sub-Saharan Africa receive training annually in India.
    • The continent’s progress will add great stability and momentum to the global economy and benefit India as well.

    Why India and Africa are important for world?

    • India and Africa constitute one-third of the world’s population. A large majority of them are in their youth.
    • Indeed, India and Africa will have a significant part of the global youth population in this century. Their future will shape the course of this world to a great extent.

    In what ways can the New Development Bank of BRICS benefit African countries?

    • It has brought together the five BRICS countries (especially South Africa) as equal partners in the establishment of the Bank, which reflects a completely new paradigm of financial structure of such institutions.
    • It would also, hopefully, have an African window or regional presence of the Bank in the future.

    Obsession with Chinese investments in Africa, Really?

    • World Bank estimates that private Chinese investment accounted for 55% of all Chinese direct investment in Africa by the end of 2011, with most of the spending in manufacturing and the service sector.
    • India seeks to challenge China’s dominance on a continent that is blessed with vast natural resources and has the world’s fastest-growing population.
    • New Delhi wants to project its soft power and historical ties to Africa, in contrast to China’s focus on resource extraction and capital investment that has sparked a backlash in some countries against Beijing’s mercantilist expansion.

    What is on the agenda of this IAFS?

    1. A forceful support for United Nations Security Council reforms.
    2. The endorsement of India’s position at the WTO with regard to agricultural subsidies.
    3. An understanding of the African position on emerging mega free trade agreements like the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership.
    4. Finally a ‘Feel Good Factor’ to deepen diplomatic relations with African governments.

    Seven of the world’s fastest growing economies are now in Africa. All of this means that Africa’s engagement with the world is an opportunity for better, more equal relations.

    The third Summit, which will see the participation of all African nations for the first time, this is an opportunity to take India’s Africa policy out of China’s shadow and truly bring foreign policy home.

     

    Published with inputs from Arun

  • BRICS Summits

    Importance for Exams

    Mains : This year is special because India holds chair of the BRICS Summit from February to December. Though the exact outcome of all the Conferences, Meeting, MoUs, Declarations leading to the main Summit is not important, the themes being discussed are independently very important.

    Prelims : All the declarations(Jaipur, Udaipur, etc), places(Khajuraho) where meetings were held and other keywords(like the BRICS Wellness Index) are important from a prelims perspective.

    In News

    The 2016 8th Annual BRICS Summit will be held in Panaji, Goa, from 15th to 16th October. The theme this year is Building Responsive, Inclusive and Collective Solutions. It will be attended by the heads of state/government of the five member states Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

    Timeline

    September – Events and Outcomes
    1 -2 Sept – BRICS Convention on Tourism, Khajuraho
    2-6 Sept – BRICS film festival
    10-11 Sept – BRICS Wellness Workshop, Bangalore
    The Ministry of AYUSH, in collaboration with Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS).
    14 Sept – BRICS Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism
    16 Sept – BRICS Environment Ministers.
    GOA MoU on setting up of JWG environment-related issues
    14-16 Sept – 3rd BRICS Urbanisation Forum, Visakhapatnam
    17 Sept – MOU on Climate co-operation

     

    August – Events and Outcomes

    1-2 Aug – BRICS Workshop on Strengthening Health Surveillance, Bengaluru
    22 Aug – BRICS Women Parliamentarians’ Forum, Jaipur
    Jaipur Declaration – Enablers for achieving SDG
    22-23 Aug – 2nd meeting of the BRICS Ministers of Disaster Management, Udaipur
    Udaipur Declaration – to enable Disaster Risk Management