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GS Paper: GS2

  • Challenges in dealing with Indo-Pacific

    Context

    The Indo-Pacific region has been under pressure and East Asia, in particular, has had to weather repeated storms.

    Background

    • Recently, U.S. President Joseph Biden was on his five-day visit to Asia.
    • During this visit, the new conservative South Korean government showed a willingness to expand the presence of a U.S. missile defence system in the country, which had earlier angered China.
    • In Japan, the administration promised him that it was ready to do away with its long-standing 1% GDP ceiling for annual defence spending.
    • Mr. Biden said at a press conference that the U.S. would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan if it came under attack from China.
    • The President and members of his delegation later clarified that there is no change in the substance of American foreign policy, which is still governed by the Taiwan Relations Act.
    • As per the 1979 Congressional law, the U.S. “shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character” so that the region can defend itself.
    • The law says nothing about the U.S. being required to step in militarily to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.

    China-challenge in Indo-Pacific

    • South Korea and Japan face regular nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.
    • Challenge to international maritime law: China not only challenges international maritime laws in the South China Sea, but also confronts Japan over the Senkaku Islands.
    • Spratly Islands dispute: Six nations, including China and Taiwan, are involved in the dispute over the Spratly Islands, which are supposedly sitting on vast reserves of oil and natural gas.
    • Militarisation of disputed isles: China has vigorously militarised some portions of the disputed isles, islets and coral reefs; and countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are anxious not to be left behind.

    Will IPEF framework help in tackling challenges from China?

    • The US has sought to deal with China by establishing an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
    • Four pillars of IPEF: The IPEF will work on fine-tuning four major pillars: standards and rules for digital trade; resilient supply chains; green energy commitments; and fair trade.
    • Issues of trade and tariffs: However, there is discontent that the framework does not address issues of trade and tariffs. 
    • Lack of trade component: Asian partners really want is trade, they want market access.
    • And the trade component of the IPEF is really lacking.

    Two facets of Indo-Pacific

    • 1] Balance relations with US and China: One is that China’s neighbours would rather balance relations between Washington and Beijing.
    • 2] Extent of resistance: Second is the extent to which countries in the region will want to get on the anti-China bandwagon, economic or strategic.
    • Whether it is in East, Southeast or South Asia, every country has its own unique relationship with Beijing.
    • India may be a part of the Quad, but is quite mindful that it is the only country in the group that shares a land border with China.
    • South Korea and Japan are part of a strong American security/strategic partnership but will be keen on maintaining their economic status with China.
    • This is also true for the Association of South East Asian Nations.

    Conclusion

    Given the complex nature of the threats and the challenges the Indo-Pacific faces, drawing up any strategy remains to be an uphill task.

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  • Healthcare in India is ailing. Here is how to fix it

    Context

    The lesson emerging from the pandemic experience is that if India does not want a repeat of the immeasurable suffering and the social and economic loss, we need to make public health a central focus.

    Need for institutional reforms in the health sector

    • The importance of public health has been known for decades with every expert committee underscoring it.
    • Ideas ranged from instituting a central public health management cadre like the IAS to adopting an institutionalised approach to diverse public health concerns — from healthy cities, enforcing road safety to immunising newborns, treating infectious diseases and promoting wellness.
    • Covid has shifted the policy dialogue from health budgets and medical colleges towards much-needed institutional reform.

    About National Health Mission (NHM)

    • The National Health Mission (NHM) seeks to provide universal access to equitable, affordable and quality health care which is accountable, at the same time responsive, to the needs of the people, reduction of child and maternal deaths as well as population stabilization, gender and demographic balance.
    • The Framework for Implementation of NUHM has been approved by the Cabinet on May 1, 2013.
    • NHM encompasses two Sub-Missions, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and National Urban Health Mission (NUHM).
    • The National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) was launched in 2005 with a view to bringing about dramatic improvement in the health system and the health status of the people, especially those who live in the rural areas of the country.

    Learning from the failure of National Health Mission (NHM)

    • The National Health Mission (NHM) has been in existence for about 15 years now and the health budget has trebled— though not as a proportion of the GDP.
    • Despite this less than 10 per cent of the health facilities below the district level can attain the grossly minimal Indian public health standards.
    • Clearly, the three-tier model of subcentres with paramedics, primary health centres with MBBS doctors and community health centres (CHC) with four to six specialists has failed.
    • Lack of accountability framework: The model’s weakness is the absence of an accountability framework.
    • The facilities are designed to be passive — treating those seeking care.

    Suggestions

    • 1] FHT: Instead of passive design of NHM, we need Family Health Teams (FHT) like in Brazil, accountable for the health and wellbeing of a dedicated population, say 2,000 families.
    • The FHTs must consist of a doctor with a diploma in family medicine and a dozen trained personnel to reflect the skill base required for the 12 guaranteed services under the Ayushman Bharat scheme.
    • A baseline survey of these families will provide information about those needing attention.
    • Family as a unit: The team ensures a continuum of care by taking the family as a unit and ensuring its well-being over a period.
    •  Nudging these families to adopt lifestyle changes, following up on referrals for medical interventions and post-operative care through home visits for nursing and physiotherapy services would be their mandate.
    • 2] Health cadre: The implication of and central to the success of such a reset lies in creating appropriate cadres.
    • 3] Clarity to nomenclatures: There is also a need to declutter policy dialogue and provide clarity to the nomenclatures.
    • Currently, public health, family medicine and public health management are used interchangeably.
    • While the family doctor cures one who is sick, the public health expert prevents one from falling sick.
    • The public health management specialist holds specialisation in health economics, procurement systems, inventory control, electronic data analysis and monitoring, motivational skills and team-building capabilities, public communication and time management, besides, coordinating with the various stakeholders in the field.
    • 4] Move beyond doctor-led systems: India needs to move beyond the doctor-led system and paramedicalise several functions.
    • Instead of wasting gynaecologists in CHCs midwives (nurses with a BSc degree and two years of training in midwifery) can provide equally good services except surgical, and can be positioned in all CHCs and PHCs.
    • This will help reduce C Sections, maternal and infant mortality and out of pocket expenses.
    • 5] Counsellors and physiotherapists at PHC: Lay counsellors for mental health, physiotherapists and public health nurses are critically required for addressing the multiple needs of primary health care at the family and community levels.
    • 6] Review of existing system: Bringing such a transformative health system will require a comprehensive review of the existing training institutions, standardising curricula and the qualifying criteria.
    • Increase spending on training: Spending on pre-service and in-service training needs to increase from the current level of about 1 per cent.
    • 7] Redefining of functions: A comprehensive redefinition of functions of all personnel is required to weed out redundancies and redeploy the rewired ones.

    Conclusion

    Resetting the system to current day realities requires strong political leadership to go beyond the inertia of the techno-administrative status quoist structures. We can.

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  • India needs a forward-looking strategy on Pakistan

    Context

    India’s approach in dealing with Pakistan today is very different from the framework that emerged at the dawn of the 1990s.

    Terms of engagement with Pakistan

    • From the 1990s, for nearly three decades, it was Pakistan that had the political initiative.
    • The turmoil in Kashmir, the international focus on nuclear proliferation, and the relentless external pressure for a sustained dialogue with Pakistan put Delhi in a difficult situation.
    • If Pakistan was on the political offensive, a series of weak coalition governments in Delhi were forced onto the back foot.
    • At the heart of Pakistan’s ambition was to change the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir.
    • Islamabad also played up to the concerns in Western chancelleries that the conflict in Kashmir might escalate to the nuclear level.
    • The new international consensus that Kashmir is the “world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint” aligned well with Pakistan’s strategy.
    • Delhi had no option but to respond, but any move to counter Pakistan would make the situation worse.
    • Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has begun to reset the terms of the engagement agenda.
    • Change in regional and international context: Meanwhile, the regional and international context has also altered in many ways since the early 1990s essentially in India’s favour.

    Reset in engagement

    • India’s transformed relations with the US, the resolution of Delhi’s dispute with the global nuclear order, and getting the West to discard its temptation to mediate on Kashmir enormously improved India’s diplomatic position.
    • But the most consequential change has been in the economic domain.
    • The persistent neglect of economic challenges left Pakistan in an increasingly weaker position in relation to India.
    • If India has inched its way into the top six global economies, Pakistan today is broke.
    • Modi had the opportunity to build on these shifting fortunes of Delhi and Islamabad and develop a three-pronged strategy of his own.
    • 1] India bet that the heavens won’t fall if Delhi stops talking to Islamabad or negotiating with Pakistan-backed militant groups in Kashmir.
    • 2] Delhi has been unafraid of staring at nuclear escalation in responding to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism.
    • 3] By changing the constitutional status of Kashmir in 2019, India has reduced the scope of India’s future negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir.

    Way forward

    • Pakistan’s hand today is much weaker than in the 1990s and Delhi’s room for manoeuvring has grown, notwithstanding the challenges it confronts on the China border.
    • That opens some room for new Indian initiatives toward Pakistan.
    • Getting Pakistan’s army and its political class to be more practical in engaging India is certainly a tall order; but Delhi can afford to make a move.

    Conclusion

    While there can be much disagreement on Pakistan’s capacity to respond, Delhi’s new initiatives can reinforce the positive evolution of Indian foreign policy, and expand the space for Indian diplomacy in the region and beyond.

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  • Implications of GST Council ruling

    Context

    The Supreme Court of India recently ruled that “The recommendations of the GST Council are not binding on either the Union or the States…”.

    About GST Council

    • The GST Council is a federal body that aims to bring together states and the Centre on a common platform for the nationwide rollout of the indirect tax reform.
    • Article 279 (1) of the amended Indian Constitution states that the GST Council has to be constituted by the President within 60 days of the commencement of the Article 279A.
    • According to the article, the GST Council will be a joint forum for the Centre and the States. It consists of the following members:
    • 1] The Union Finance Minister will be the Chairperson.
    • 2] As a member, the Union Minister of State will be in charge of Revenue of Finance.
    • 3] The Minister in charge of finance or taxation or any other Minister nominated by each State government, as members.
    • The Council has to function as a platform to bring the Union and State governments together.
    • As a mark of cooperative federalism, the Council shall, unanimously or through a majority of 75% of weighted votes, decide on all matters pertaining to GST and recommend such decisions to the Union and State governments.
    • Article 279A (4) specifies that the Council will make recommendations to the Union and the States on the important issues related to GST, such as the goods and services will be subject or exempted from the Goods and Services Tax.
    • Article 246A confers simultaneous or concurrent powers on Parliament and the state legislatures to make laws relating to GST.
    • This article is in sharp contrast to the constitutional scheme that prevailed till 2017.

    Background of the case

    • In Union of India Anr. vs Mohit Minerals Pvt. Ltd., the Supreme Court of India on May 19, 2022 ruled on a petition relating to the levy of Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) on ocean freight paid by the foreign seller to a foreign shipping company.
    • Mohit Minerals had filed a writ petition before the Gujarat High Court challenging notifications levying IGST on the ground that customs duty is levied on the component of ocean freight and the levy of IGST on the freight element in the course of transportation would amount to double taxation.
    • GST is paid by the supplier, but if the shipping line is located in a non-taxable territory, then GST is payable by the importer, the recipient of service.
    • Ocean freight is a method of transport by which goods and cargo is transported by ships through shipping lines.

    Important aspects of the judgement

    • Power to legislate simultaneously: Article 246A gives powers to the Union and State governments simultaneously to legislate on the GST.
    • In other words, the two tiers of the Indian Union can simultaneously legislate on matters of the GST (except the IGST, which is in the legislative domain of the Union government).
    • In this case, the Government of India had argued that “Neither can Article 279A override Article 246A nor can Article 246A be made subject to Article 279A.”
    • However, cooperative federalism is to operate through the GST Council to bring in harmony and alignment in matters pertaining to the GST from both governments.
    • Given this background, the Union government had almost delegated the powers to create laws under the GST Act Section 5(1) to the GST Council.
    • Persuasive value only: The Supreme Court of India adjudicated that the GST Council’s recommendations are non-qualified and the simultaneous legislating powers of the Union and State governments give only persuasive value to the Council’s recommendations.
    • The power of the recommendations rests on the practice of cooperative federalism and collaborative decision-making in the Council.

    Issues with voting rights in GST council

    • Inbalance in voting rights: The Union government holds one-third weight for its votes and all States have two-thirds of the weight for their votes.
    • This gives automatic veto power to the Union government because a resolution can be passed with at least three-fourths of the weighted votes.
    • This imbalance in the voting rights between the Union and State governments, makes democratic decision-making difficult.
    • Equal weight to all states creates political problems: Though all the States are not equal in terms of tax capacity, everyone has equal weight for their votes.
    • This creates another political problem as the smaller States with lesser economic stakes can be easily influenced by interest groups.
    • Debate on political lines: The debates in the GST Council will be on political lines rather than on the economics of taxation.
    •  When the States governed by Opposition parties are vocal on counter-points, the States governed by the same party at the Union government are mute spectators.

    Way forward

    • Work in a harmonised manner: The Supreme Court has recorded, “Since the Constitution does not envisage a repugnance provision to resolve inconsistencies between the Central and State laws on GST, the GST Council must ideally function, as provided by Article 279A(6) in a harmonised manner to reach a workable fiscal model through cooperation and collaboration.”
    • Cooperative federalism: The nuanced understanding of cooperative federalism shows that there is no space for one-upmanship in either of the two tiers of the Indian federal government and particularly for the Union government under a quasi-federal Constitution.

    Conclusion

    Given the lopsided power structure favouring the Union government in the GST Council, it is against the spirit of democracy and federalism that the finances of governments can be left to such bodies.

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  • How are Rajya Sabha MPs elected?

    Ahead of Rajya Sabha elections in four states, various parties have accommodated legislators from at least three states in resorts, away from potential poaching by rival parties.

    Do you know?

    • Only two UTs elect members to the Rajya Sabha, not all.
    • Polling is held only if the number of candidates exceeds the number of vacancies.
    • Independent members can also be elected etc.

    Read this newscard for all such interesting facts which can be directly asked in the prelims.

    Rajya Sabha Polls

    • A third of MPs in the Rajya Sabha (which is a permanent House and is not subject to dissolution), from each State, retire once in two years and polls are held to fill up the vacancies.
    • Only elected members of the State Legislative Assemblies can vote in a Rajya Sabha election.
    • The legislators send a batch of new members to the Upper House every two years for a six-year term.
    • In addition, vacancies that arise due to resignation, death or disqualification are filled up through by-polls after which those elected serve out the remainder of their predecessors’ term.

    Composition of Rajya Sabha

    • A bloc of MPs belonging to one or more parties can elect a member of their choice if they have the requisite numbers.
    • This is to avoid the principle of majority, which would mean that only candidates put up by ruling parties in the respective States will be elected.
    • The Delhi and Puducherry Assemblies elect members to the Rajya Sabha to represent the two UTs.

    What is the election process?

    • Polling for a Rajya Sabha election will be held only if the number of candidates exceeds the number of vacancies.
    • Since the strength of each party in the Assembly is known, it is not difficult to estimate the number of seats a party would win in the Rajya Sabha poll.
    • In many states, parties avoid a contest by fielding candidates only in respect to their strength. Where an extra candidate enters the fray, voting becomes necessary.
    • Candidates fielded by political parties have to be proposed by at least 10 members of the Assembly or 10% of the party’s strength in the House, whichever is less.
    • For independents, there should be 10 proposers, all of whom should be members of the Assembly.

    Voting procedure

    • Voting is by single transferable vote, as the election is held on the principle of proportional representation.
    • A single transferable vote means electors can vote for any number of candidates in order of their preference.
    • A candidate requires a specified number of first preference votes to win. Each first choice vote has a value of 100 in the first round.
    • To qualify, a candidate needs one point more than the quotient obtained by dividing the total value of the number of seats for which elections are taking place plus one.

    Example: If there are four seats and 180 MLAs voting, the qualifying number will be 180/5= 36 votes or value of 3,600.

    Why do not the Rajya Sabha polls have a secret ballot?

    • The Rajya Sabha polls have a system of the open ballot, but it is a limited form of openness.
    • As a measure to check rampant cross-voting, which was taken to mean that the vote had been purchased by corrupt means.
    • There is a system of each party MLA showing his or her marked ballots to the party’s authorised agent (called Whip), before they are put into the ballot box.
    • Showing a marked ballot to anyone other than one’s own party’s authorised agent will render the vote invalid.
    • Not showing the ballot to the authorised agent will also mean that the vote cannot be counted.
    • And independent candidates are barred from showing their ballots to anyone.

    Is there any NOTA option in voting?

    • The ECI issued two circulars, on January 24, 2014, and November 12, 2015, giving Rajya Sabha members the option to press the NOTA button in the Upper House polls.
    • However, in 2018, the Supreme Court struck down the provision, holding that the ‘none of the above’ option is only for general elections.
    • It cannot be applied to indirect elections based on proportional representation.

    Does cross-voting attract disqualification?

    • The Supreme Court, while declining to interfere with the open ballot system, ruled that not voting for the party candidate will not attract disqualification under the anti-defection law.
    • As voters, MLAs retain their freedom to vote for a candidate of their choice.
    • However, the Court observed that since the party would know who voted against its own candidate, it is free to take disciplinary action against the legislator concerned.

    Can a legislator vote without taking oath as a member of the Assembly?

    • While taking oath as a member is for anyone to function as a legislator, the Supreme Court has ruled that a member can vote in a Rajya Sabha election even before taking oath as a legislator.
    • It ruled that voting at the Rajya Sabha polls, being a non-legislative activity, can be performed without taking the oath.
    • A person becomes a member as soon as the list of elected members is notified by the ECI, it said.
    • Further, a member can also propose a candidate before taking the oath.

    Try this PYQ:

    Q. Consider the following statements:

    1. The Rajya Sabha has no power either to reject or to amend a Money Bill.
    2. The Rajya Sabha cannot vote on the Demands for Grants.
    3. The Rajya Sabha cannot discuss the Annual Financial Statement.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    (a) Only 1

    (c) 2 and 3 only

    (b) 1 and 2 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”aimpzfnm52″ question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

    Also read

    [Sansad TV] Perspective – Rajya Sabha: The Upper House

     

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  • The problem with putting the civil services on a pedestal

    Context

    Recently, two IAS officers were the subject of widespread public derision for misuse of power. A week later, the media and the public feted those who had successfully cracked the UPSC examination in order to become bureaucrats of the future.

    About Indian Administrative Service

    • Civil Services refer to the career civil servants who are the permanent executive branch of the Republic of India.
    • The modern Indian Administrative Service was created under Article 312(2) in part XIV of the Constitution of India, and the All-India Services Act, 1951.
    • It is the backbone of the administrative machinery of the country.
    • As India is a parliamentary democracy, the ultimate responsibility for running the administration rests with the people’s elected representatives.
    • The elected executive decides the policy and it is civil servants, who serve at the pleasure of the President of India, implement it.
    • Article 311 of the Constitution protects Civil Servants from politically motivated vindictive action.

    What makes civil services favourable in India

    • Most countries in the world have a cadre of professional civil servants but nowhere are new entrants to the system of government celebrated like in India.
    • Colonial legacy: The fact is that, 75 years after independence and 30 years after liberalisation, there is still an overhang of the all-powerful, all-pervasive state.
    • There are good reasons for a favourable view of the civil services.
    • Merit based selection: For one, candidates are selected on merit based on an open examination and interview.
    • Job security: Then there is the job security that comes with gaining entry.
    • Unless a civil servant does an extraordinary wrong, she has a job for life, and steady, time-bound promotions which ensure that everyone retires at the top irrespective of performance.

    Issues with public perception

    • However, in the perceived strengths of the civil services lie its weaknesses.
    • Single exam: The single UPSC examination is treated as gospel. 
    • But merit and competence cannot be judged by a single exam.
    • Permanence is a problem: The permanence of the job is a problem too.
    • Punishment for over-reach or misuse of power is a transfer, either from a weightier ministry to a lighter one or from high-profile capitals to geographically remote ones.
    • A system of limited accountability: The result is that all civil servants, never mind their ability or competence, operate in a system of limited accountability with few incentives to perform and plenty of opportunities to use and abuse their powers.

    Way forward

    • Placing civil servant at par with other professions: The civil services system needs to be brought down from its pedestal and placed at par with every other profession like elsewhere in the world.
    • This will not happen via political diktat. It requires the weight of public opinion.
    • Broaden the selection criteria: The system must be manned by capable, competent individuals. This cannot be decided on the basis of one exam.
    • Remove the job permanency: The underperforming officers need to be separated which cannot happen when the job is for life.
    • It may sound radical for India’s civil services but that is the way the rest of India and the world function, including the UK from where we inherited the structure.

    Conclusion

    If we can make these changes in the civil services, India will get the government it needs for the 21st century.

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  • BIMSTEC

    Context

    After 25 years, BIMSTEC can do much better as a grouping, addressing shortcomings in trade and connectivity.

    About BIMSTEC

    • BIST-EC in 1997: The 1997 Bangkok Declaration led to creation of the grouping of Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand with the acronym, BIST-EC.
    • BIMSTEC: Three countries-Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar joined BIST-EC later to make it the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
    • At the grouping’s birth, the world was different; it was stamped by America’s ‘unipolar moment’.
    • India and Thailand joined hands to start an experiment of infusing a part of South Asia with the economic and institutional dynamism that defined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    • But BIMSTEC found the burdens of South Asia too heavy to carry, and so it grew slowly.
    • The grouping has succeeded in rejuvenating itself.
    • Instrument of regional cooperation and integration: Since its Kathmandu summit in 2018, it is viewed as an instrument of regional cooperation and integration, not just of sub-regional cooperation.

    New opportunities in the changed geopolitical context

    • In the third decade of the 21st century, the strategic contestation between the United States and China defines the region’s geopolitics and geo-economics, creating new tensions and opportunities.
    • Deepening linkage between South Asia and Southeast Asia: In this Indo-Pacific century, the Bay of Bengal Community (BOBC) has the potential to play a pivotal role, deepening linkages between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
    • Collaboration with IPEF: It should accelerate the region’s economic development by collaborating with the newly minted Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).
    • New synergy should be created between BIMSTEC and the IPEF.
    • While all member-states are equal, three have a special responsibility: Bangladesh as the host of the BIMSTEC Secretariat; Thailand as the representative of Southeast Asia; and India as the largest state in South Asia.

    Key achievements of BIMSTEC

    • Charter: It has crafted a new Charter for itself, spelling out the grouping’s vision, functions of its constituent parts, and has secured a legal personality.
    • Sectors of cooperation reduced to 7:  It has prioritised the sectors of cooperation, reducing them from the unwieldy 14 to the more manageable seven, with each member-state serving as the lead country for the assigned sector.
    • Strengthened Secretariat: It has, finally, taken measures to strengthen the Secretariat.
    • Combating terrorism: The grouping has also registered progress in combating terrorism, forging security cooperation, and creating mechanisms and practices for the better management of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
    • Held regular summits: Unlike the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, post-2014, BIMSTEC has continued to hold its summits and meetings of Foreign Ministers.
    • Unlike the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) which held only one summit since its establishment in 1997, BIMSTEC has succeeded in holding five summits so far; it has now resolved to hold regular summits once in two years.
    • Sectoral cooperation: Institutions such as an Energy Centre and the Centre on Weather and Climate are in place to push sectoral cooperation forward.

    Challenges

    • No progress on FTA yet: A major failure relates to the continuing inability to produce a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) 18 years after the signing of the Framework Agreement.
    • Lack of connectivity: The other disappointment is connectivity — in infrastructure (roads, railways, air, river, and coastal shipping links), energy, the digital and financial domain, and institutions that bring people closer together for trade, tourism and cultural exchanges.
    • Only limited progress has been achieved so far, despite the adoption of the Master Plan for Connectivity supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
    • Much of the connectivity established recently is the outcome of bilateral initiatives taken by India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan to strengthen transport links.
    • No progress on Blue Economy: The grouping has talked about the Blue Economy but is yet to begin any work on it.
    • Business chambers and corporate leaders are yet to be engaged fully with the activities of BIMSTEC.

    Conclusion

    If BIMSTEC is truly committed to its stated goals, it must recreate the spirit of working in unison.

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  • Myanmar’s internal situation shouldn’t hobble India’s ‘Act East’ policy

    Context

    The military takeover in Myanmar on February 1, 2021 and its aftermath have seen an adverse impact on India’s Act East policy.

    What happened in Myanmar?

    • The 2021 coup occurred in the aftermath of the general election on 8 November 2020, in which the NLD won 396 out of 476 seats in parliament, an even larger margin of victory than in the 2015 election. The military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, won only 33 seats. The Army claimed the results of the election were rigged and did not acknowledge the results.
    • On February 3 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest under charges for breaking COVID-19 laws. Additional charges included importing and using radio and communication devices from her security team which is prohibited in Myanmar and require clearances from intelligence agencies.
    • Aung San Suu Kyi received an additional criminal charge for violating the National Disaster Act on 16 February, and two additional charges for violating communications laws and an intent to incite public unrest on 1 March.

    Events of the Myanmar Coup

    • By March 31st 2021, at least 520 civilians have been killed by military or police forces and at least 3070 pope. At least three members from the NLD have died in police custody
    • About 400 elected parliament members were placed under house arrest. Following the coup, the NLD arranged for the MPs to remain housed in the complex until 6 February.
    • When the Myanmar ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, condemned the coup by the military, he was fired from his post the following day.
    • Civil resistance efforts have emerged within the country, in opposition to the. Numerous acts of civil disobedience labour strokes, military boycott campaign, and formal recognition of the election results by elected officials
    • Since the onset of the coup, residents in urban centres such as Yangon staged cacerolazos, striking pots and pans in unison every evening as a symbolic act to drive away evil, as a method of expressing their opposition to the coup.

    India’s stance regarding the Myanmar Coup

    • Ever since the protests started, there have been reports of defections from the Myanmar Police Force. On March 11, 2021, 11 officers crossed the India-Myanmar border into the state of Mizoram with their families. The Myanmar government reached out to India to extradite them, with the Indian government replying that they would make a decision regarding that matter.
    • The Assam Rifles were given orders to tighten security along the India–Myanmar border. From 10 March, the border has been closed after 48 nationals from Myanmar have crossed it.
    • Officially, the Indian government has expressed its deepest concern regarding the developing situation in Myanmar. While supporting a smooth and transitional process towards democracy, it is also concerned that the instability in Myanmar may affect the northeastern states.

    Look East Policy

    • In order to recover from the loss of the strategic partner -USSR (end of the Cold war 1991), India sought to build up a relationship with the USA and allies of the USA in Southeast Asia.
    • In this pursuit, former Prime minister of India P V Narasimha Rao launched Look East policy in 1992, to give a strategic push to India’s engagement with the South-East Asia region, to bolster its standing as a regional power and a counterweight to the strategic influence of the People’s Republic of China.

     

    Difference Between Look East and Act East:

    Look East:

    • Look East policy focused on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries + Economic Integration.
    • India became a dialogue partner of ASEAN in 1996 and summit level partner in 2002.
    • In 2012 the relationship got up-graded into a Strategic Partnership.
    • The time when India launched the Look East Policy in 1992, India’s trade with ASEAN was USD 2 billion. After signing the Free Trade Agreement in 2010 with ASEAN, the trade has grown to USD 72 billion (2017-18).
    • India is also an active participant in several regional forums like the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) etc.

     

    Act East:

    Act East Policy focused on ASEAN countries + Economic Integration + East Asian countries + Security cooperation.

    Prime minister of India highlighted 4C’s of Act East Policy.

    • Culture
    • Commerce
    • Connectivity
    • Capacity building

     

    • Security is an important dimension of India’s Act East Policy.
    • In the context of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, securing freedom of navigation and India’s own role in the Indian Ocean is a key feature of Act East Policy.
    • In pursuance of this, India has been engaged under the narrative of Indo-pacific and informal grouping called Quad.

    Impact on Act East policy

    • With the present dispensation in Myanmar, the Act East policy is going nowhere.
    • Impact on outreach: This has not only stymied New Delhi’s initiatives in terms of land outreach towards the vibrant economies of South East Asia, but has retarded development in the Northeast.
    • Pragmatism demands that an ambitious policy that had fired the aspirations of the Northeast does not become a casualty to the inertia of policymakers.
    • There seems to be a full-bodied recalibration exercise among insurgent groups operating from the Sagaing Division and Chin State in Myanmar.
    • In the north, the ULFA which was until recently in a submissive mood and had declared three back-to-back unilateral ceasefires has suddenly turned belligerent.
    • Need for a relook at Act East policy: In this background, a fresh look needs to be taken at both the furtherance of the Act East policy and the security matrix that governs the Northeast.

    Suggestions

    1] Opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity

    • Promoting trade and commerce: Favourable bilateral relations with Bangladesh offer an opportunity for opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity for promoting trade and commerce with Southeast Asia.
    • Upgrade land routes: There is a need to upgrade the multitude of land routes to the seaports of Mongla and Chittagong in Bangladesh, from Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura.
    • The key land linkages from the Northeast are — Agartala via Akhaura, Dawki (Meghalaya) via Tamabil, Sutarkandi (Assam), and Srimantapur (Tripura) via Bibir Bazar.
    • Exploit shared river connectivity: In addition, there is a need to use inland water transport (IWT) to exploit the shared river connectivity of the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers.

    2] Continued engagement with Myanmar

    • The land gateway to South East Asia does not seem likely in the near future.
    • But there should be no dilution in our initiatives to ensure that peace and stability return to Myanmar at the earliest.
    • For this, there is a need for continued engagement, both formal and informal, with the warring factions in Myanmar.

    3] Develop appropriate infrastructure

    • Appropriate infrastructure such as container depots, cold storage facilities and seamless highways will have to be developed on a war footing.
    • Indian manufactured goods will have to be transported to the rail/roadheads in the Northeast like Guwahati for ready access to the seaports of Bangladesh.

    4] Integrated defence zones

    • To make ineffective the strike capability of the insurgent groups there is a need to create “integrated defence zones”.
    •  These should be jointly manned by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) and the Indian Army/Assam Rifles
    • To enthuse dynamism and empower the Assam Rifles, there is a need to retain its current structure of being officered by the Indian Army, as it ensures systemic command and control.
    • This force needs to be mandated to undertake intelligence operations for greater transparency of the events within Myanmar and further the national strategy.

    Conclusion

    The Act East policy is intertwined with India’s Northeast policy. Let not the dismal scenario of Myanmar impede our vision for the actualisation of our ambitious Act East to go East, as alternates exist. To that end, there is a need to ensure the continued economic development of Northeastern states.

     

  • India-Pakistan ties and the mirror of 2019

    Context

    An official delegation from Pakistan was in New Delhi recently to hold talks with its Indian counterparts under the aegis of the Indus Water Treaty.

    Positive developments in the relations

    • Starting from February, India has been sending through Pakistan consignments of wheat, via the World Food Programme, to the Taliban-run Afghanistan.
    • Evidently, channels of communication between the two governments are working and open hostility has subsided, if not vanished completely.
    • China factor: The change has been driven by realist considerations that surfaced during the Ladakh border crisis on the Line of Actual Control with China in the summer of 2020.
    • The recent change of government in Pakistan, including Imran Khan’s removal, is seen as a positive in New Delhi.
    • The official Indian establishment has had close ties with both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Peoples Party that are now part of the government.

    Countering the collusive military threat from China and Pakistan

    • The border crisis in Ladakh raised the spectre of a collusive military threat between China and Pakistan.
    • Such a challenge cannot be effectively dealt with by the military alone and would need all the instruments of the state — diplomatic, economic, informational, and military — to act in concert.
    •  To prevent such a situation, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval opened backchannel talks with Pakistan.

    Way ahead

    • There are some low-hanging fruits which can be plucked the moment a political go-ahead is given.
    • These include a deal on the Sir Creek dispute, an agreement for revival of bilateral trade, return of High Commissioners to the missions in Delhi and Islamabad, and build-up of diplomatic missions to their full strength.
    • Demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier is still seen to be off the table as the Indian proposal is believed to be unacceptable to the Pakistan Army.
    • A window of opportunity would possibly open in Pakistan after the next elections, which are scheduled next year but could be held earlier.

    Conclusion

    India must shift course from the belligerence it has displayed and profited from earlier in favour of proper diplomatic and political engagement with Pakistan.

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  • Why India must engage Taliban

    Context

    It is good that India has extended humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan at this time through international agencies and not let its unhappiness with the Taliban’s policies come in the way.

    India’s  recent engagement with Afghanistan

    • Recently, the Ministry of External Affairs announced that a team led by J P Singh, Joint Secretary (PAI) “is currently on a visit to Kabul to oversee the delivery operations of our humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan”.
    • The MEA clearly implied that this engagement should be seen only in the limited context of assistance to the Afghan people
    • The continuance of humanitarian assistance can be only one, though an important, segment of interaction; other aspects, especially security issues and later, connectivity and investments, as Afghanistan stabilises, have to be part of the dialogue with the Taliban.

    Why Afghanistan matters to India’s security

    • Afghanistan impacts India’s security.
    •  It has, in the past, provided space to al Qaeda with which the Taliban had a special relationship.
    • Afghanistan has an ISIS presence too.
    • Of special concern to India are the Taliban’s ties with the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
    • A recent United Nations report has emphasised that the Taliban’s connections with these groups have not been severed.

    So, what should be India’s approach toward the Taliban?

    • It is argued that both “principle and pragmatism” demand that India should not do business with the Taliban.
    • However, Pakistan has continued to sponsor terror and yet India has continued to engage it and has maintained a diplomatic presence in Islamabad. 
    • India cannot argue that the diplomatic door must be kept open for Pakistan because it’s a neighbour while it can be shut on the Taliban because Afghanistan directly impacts Indian security.
    • Engagement with Taliban: An engagement with the Taliban would at least give an opportunity to convey Indian concerns directly and encourage those elements within the group who wish to open up its diplomatic choices.
    • Exploit contradiction: Far from being a monolith, the Taliban has significant tribal and regional contradictions.
    • Therefore, India should not leave the Afghan arena entirely to Pakistan and China because of the social manifestation of Taliban theology.
    • The Taliban is here to stay and for India, there is no alternative but to deal with it even while repeating, if it wishes, the mantra of inclusive government.
    • India should also maintain contacts with the leaders of the ousted Republic, especially as the Taliban itself wants them to return to the country.

    Conclusion

    All in all, the sooner India establishes a permanent presence in Kabul the better for the pursuit of national interests in the external sphere. This is not an exercise in evangelism but the cold and undeterred pursuit of interests.

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