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GS Paper: GS3

  • Where is the Indian rupee headed?

    The article explains the factors affecting the Indian rupee’s value against the dollar in implications of change in value for the Indian economy.

    Factor’s affecting rupee’s value

    • First, India’s foreign exchange reserves need to be considered, which have been increasing quite rapidly.
    • Second, there are daily fluctuations caused by foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows.
    • Third, there is the external factor of the dollar, when the US currency strengthens against the euro, the rupee tends to decline and vice-versa.
    • Fourth, there is the concept of the real effective exchange rate (REER), a construct of economists in which relative inflation comes into play.
    • If inflation in India is higher than in countries associated with its export basket of currencies, then the rupee is overvalued and will correct through depreciation.
    • Fifth, at what stage will the RBI intervene by buying or selling dollars to stabilize the Indian currency also matters.

    Let’s look at some of these factors in detail.

    Impact of the U.S. economy and Fed

    • The dollar is driven by the US economy as well as its Federal Reserve’s policies.
    • The Fed’s recent indication that it would raise its policy rate of funds in the years ahead was enough to strengthen the dollar and weaken the rupee.  As an increase in US rates could see global investor money flocking back to the US, the dollar gained in relative value.
    • The dollar should logically be strengthening, given improving US growth, now reinforced by the Fed.

    Inflation factor

    • The inflation factor, however, has been curious.
    • Indian inflation will be high in India and hence also the rupee’s REER.
    • To the extent the market understands this concept and uses it for valuation, it should be pushing the rupee downwards.
    • But the pressure will be less this time as global inflation is also being raised by rising commodity prices.
    • Indian inflation may not be so much higher as to warrant a deep depreciation.

    Increase in Forex reserves

    • An increase in forex reserves is an indication that India is getting in more dollars than we are spending.
    • This also means that our combined current and capital accounts are in surplus zone.
    • However, India’s current account will go into a deficit this year, as imports will be greater than exports, but will not be very high. Maybe 0.5-1% of GDP.
    • The capital account can get tricky.
    • Inward foreign direct investment was high in 2020-21.
    • At $60 billion in equity and $80 billion overall, it was one of the world’s highest.
    • Therefore, capital flows should remain strong.
    • External commercial borrowings could slow down amid weak investment within India.
    • So the fundamentals suggest that the rupee should be stable, with a tilt towards depreciation.

    The RBI intervention

    • The RBI’s surplus liquidity and accommodative stance have not worked in favour of the rupee.
    • In response to its April policy, when RBI affirmed its dovish stance, the rupee began falling on expectations that if RBI kept rates low at a time of high inflation and excessive market borrowing by the government, investors will potentially move out.
    • This pushed the rupee towards the 75 level against the dollar, but reverted with time as RBI kept infusing liquidity and managed the yield curve.
    •  In April, RBI bought $4.2 billion worth of the US currency.
    • Exports have grown smartly in the first two months of 2021-22, and at this stage, the central bank would not want to that trend by stalling the rupee’s depreciation.

    Conclusion

    Taking all these factors into account, one can foresee the rupee moving in the range of ₹74-75 to the dollar, unless there’s a shock of some sort, though none looks likely at present.

  • Microfinance institutions

    The microfinance institutions (MFI) faced several restrictions by RBI which were not applicable to banks, NBFC and small finance banks. This denied the MFIs level playing field. A recent Consultative document by the RBI frees MFIs from such restrictions. The article explains this in detail.

    Background of regulation of MFI’s  by RBI

    • RBI first allowed informal self-help groups to open savings accounts in banks and bank lending to these groups in 1991-92.
    • In 2000, RBI permitted all types of institutions to offer microcredit and bank loans extended to these institutions for on-lending were treated as part of the priority sector lending.
    • Beyond these, RBI was unwilling to bring in any regulations on the plea that as long as these are not deposit-taking institutions there is no need to regulate them. 
    • That was the stand of various RBI-appointed committees too, including the Vyas Committee of 2004.
    • Based on the Malegam Committee recommendations, RBI came out with detailed guidelines for microfinance institutions (not the microfinance sector) in 2011.
    • These guidelines introduced a new category of NBFCs, viz NBFC-MFIs (microfinance institutions).
    • It also set norms for income criteria for clients of MFIs, repayment period, borrower loan limits, interest rate norms and caps, limits on a number of lenders to a borrower and a host of other norms and criteria.

    How these norms created the issue of a level playing field?

    • After 2015-16, the entry of small finance banks, eight of which were MFIs, into the microfinance space started to create issues.
    • MFIs discovered to their dismay that while they had to adhere to a set of regulations, it was a free-for-all for non-MFIs (banks, SFBs and NBFCs).
    • The main issue was that non-MFIs need not adhere to the norm of number of lenders (two in the case of NBFC-MFIs) and per-borrower loan limits.
    • It prompted non-MFIs to target borrowers identified and nurtured by MFIs with higher loan amounts, leading to high levels of borrower indebtedness.
    • In addition, the interest rate cap (2.75 times the base rate declared quarterly by RBI) was squeezing the margins of small and medium MFIs, as none of them get loans from the biggest banks.

    Way forward

    • The recent Consultative Document by RBI frees MFIs from the restriction imposed by the 2011 regulations and gives them a level-playing field.
    • Another important feature for MFIs is that by doing away with the 50% income generation loans criteria and the repayment period norms.
    • RBI is facilitating credit flow into lifecycle needs like housing, water sanitation, education, health, renewable energy, etc, which are now as important as income generation.
    • On the interest rate front, initially, some upward correction could be there by medium and small MFIs based on their borrowing rates.
    • The document enhances the role for the regulator as the adoption of Board-approved policies to determine the norms of household indebtedness and to fix a transparent rate of interest by each institution and their implementation need a rigorous supervisory oversight

    Conclusion

    Providing a level playing field to the MFI is critical to their development, the document by RBI rightly does that. It will help in providing credit to those who remain outside the formal banking network.

    Source:

    https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/unfettering-microfinance-recent-rbi-consultative-document-frees-mfis-from-shackles-imposed-by-2011-regulations/2277925/

  • Covid-19 Delta-plus Variant

    The Maharashtra government has tightened the Covid-19 unlocking process in the wake of a rise in cases of the Delta Plus variant.

    What is Delta Plus?

    • A variant that has emerged as a new threat, especially in India, Delta Plus (B.1.617.2.1/(AY.1) is a new mutant strain of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.
    • It is technically the next generation of SARS-COV-2.
    • The Delta variant that was first detected in India eventually became a huge problem for the whole world.
    • However, the Delta Plus variant, at present, is limited to smaller areas in the country. This mutant of Delta was first detected in Europe in March 2021, but it came to light on June 13.
    • Although it is still under investigation, experts believe that the Delta Plus variant has increased transmissibility.

    What is known so far?

    • The new Delta plus variant has been formed due to a mutation in the Delta or B.1.617.2 variant.
    • Delta Plus (AY.1) is resistant to monoclonal antibodies cocktail.
    • Since it’s a new variant, its severity is still unknown.
    • 63 genomes of Delta (B.1.617.2) with the new K417N mutation have been identified by the GISAID (global science initiative) so far.
    • The mutation is in the spike protein of SARS-COV-2, which helps the virus enter and infect the human cells.
    • People reported symptoms like headaches, sore throats, runny noses, and fever.

    Are COVID-19 vaccines effective against the Delta Plus variant?

    • Medical experts say it is too early to predict the effectiveness of the existing vaccines on the new variant.
    • A detailed study would be required to establish any effect of the mutant on the immune system.
    • However, Union Health Ministry says that both Indian vaccines — Covishield and Covaxin are effective against the Delta variant.
    • There is fear that this new variant Delta Plus may spark the third wave of COVID-19, but there is a very low incidence of such cases, so there is no certainty.

  • Who is a Registered Valuer?

    A valuation report by a registered valuer is at the heart of the recent controversy surrounding a Rs 4,000 crore share allotment decision by PNB Housing Finance.

    Who is a Registered Valuer?

    • A registered valuer is an individual or entity which is registered with the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBIBI) as a valuer in accordance with the Companies (Registered Valuers and Valuation) Rules, 2017.
    • Under Section 458 of the Companies Act, IBBI has been specified as the authority by the central government.
    • The concept of registered valuer was introduced in the Companies Act in 2017 in order to regulate the valuation of assets and liabilities linked to a company and to standardize the valuation procedure in line with global valuation standards.
    • Before the concept of registered valuer became part of the Companies Act, valuation was done in an arbitrary manner, often leading to question marks over the authenticity of the valuation.

    What does the valuation report comprise?

    • As per the Companies (Registered Valuers and Valuation) Rules, 2017, the valuer should, in his/its report, state 11 key aspects including disclosure of the valuer’s conflict of interest, if any.
    • Among others, it must include the purpose of valuation; sources of information; procedures adopted in carrying out the valuation; valuation methodology; and major factors that influenced the valuation.

    Who can become a registered valuer?

    • An individual needs to clear the Valuation Examination conducted by IBBI.
    • The rules state that an individual who has completed 50 years of age and has been substantially involved in at least ten valuation assignments of assets amounting to Rs 5 crore rupees or more, during the five years preceding the commencement of these rules, shall not be required to pass the Valuation Examination.
    • The individual should, however, have a postgraduate degree in the specified discipline (relevant for valuation of the class of asset for which the registration is sought) and should have at least three years of experience in the discipline thereafter.
    • As of March 31, 2021 there were 3,967 registered valuers in the country. Only 40 of them are registered entities; the rest are individuals.

    For what assets can a registered valuer undertake valuation?

    • A registered valuer can get themselves registered for valuation of assets such as land and building; plant and machinery; and securities and financial assets.
    • They can get registered for valuation of all three classes, and can undertake valuation of only the assets for which they have got the registration.

    Answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.Which of the following statements best describes the- term ‘Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A)’, recently seen in the news? (CSP 2017)

    (a) It is a procedure for considering the ecological costs of developmental schemes formulated by the Government.

    (b) It is a scheme of RBI for reworking the financial structure of big corporate entities facing genuine difficulties.

    (c) It is a disinvestment plan of the Government regarding Central Public Sector Undertakings.

    (d) It is an important provision in ‘The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code’ recently implemented by the Government.

  • What is Ambergris?

    In the past few weeks, there have been two cases where the Mumbai Police has arrested five persons trying to sell Ambergris or whale vomit.

    What is Ambergris?

    • Ambergris, French for grey amber, is generally referred to as whale vomit.
    • It is a solid waxy substance that floats around the surface of the water body and at times settles on the coast.
    • A sperm whale eats several thousand squid beaks a day.
    • Occasionally, a beak makes it way to the whale’s stomach and into its looping convoluted intestines where it becomes ambergris through a complex process, and may ultimately be excreted by the whale.

    Is it Ambergris valuable?

    • This excretion is so valuable it is referred to as floating gold.
    • As per the latest estimates given by Mumbai Police, 1 kg of ambergris is worth Rs 1 crore in the international market.
    • The reason for its high cost is its use in the perfume market, especially to create fragrances like musk.
    • It is believed to be in high demand in countries like Dubai that have a large perfume market. Ancient Egyptians used it as incense.
    • It is also believed to be used in some traditional medicines.

    Why are the laws on Ambergris?

    • Due to its high value, Ambergris has been a target for smugglers especially in coastal areas.
    • There have been several cases where the coastline of Gujarat has been used for such smuggling.
    • Since the sperm whale is a protected species, hunting of the whale is not allowed.
    • However, smugglers are known to have illegally targeted the fish in order to obtain the valuable Ambergris from its stomach.
    • However, Ambergris is produced only by an estimated one per cent of sperm whales.

  • Bad bank

    The article suggests drawing the lessons from China’s experience with the bad bank as India India gets ready to operationalise a new bad bank.

    Bad bank in China and issues

    • In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, China set up dedicated bad banks for each of its big four state-owned commercial banks.
    • These bad banks were meant to acquire non-performing loans (NPLs) from those banks and resolve them within 10 years.
    • In 2009, their tenure was extended indefinitely.
    • Chinese banks can currently transfer NPLs only to the national or local bad banks.
    • One of China’s biggest bad banks is the China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. (Huarong).
    • The Chinese government is its principal shareholder.
    • Recently this bad bank stoked financial stability concerns when it skirted a potential bond default.
    • An incentive to conceal: Recent research at the National University of Singapore and others highlights that Chinese bad banks effectively help conceal Non-Performing Loans.
    • The banks finance over 90 per cent of NPL transactions through direct loans to bad banks or indirect financing vehicles.
    • The bad banks resell over 70 per cent of the NPLs at inflated prices to third parties, who happen to be borrowers of the same banks.
    • The researchers conclude that in the presence of binding financial regulations and opaque market structures bad bank model could create incentives to hide bad loans instead of resolving them.
    • Broadening of tenure: In case of Huarong, the main source of the problem appears to be the gradual broadening of the original mandate and tenure of Chinese bad banks.

    Four lessons for India

    • India is about to operationalise a new bad bank, the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd. (NARCL).
    • The Chinese experience holds four important lessons for India.

    1) Finite tenure of bad bank

    • A centralised bad bank like NARCL should ideally have a finite tenure.
    • Such an institution is typically a swift response to an abrupt economic shock (like Covid) when orderly disposal of bad loans via securitisation or direct sales may not be possible.
    • The banks could transfer their crisis-induced NPLs to the bad bank and focus on expanding lending activity.
    • The bad bank in turn can restructure and protect asset value.
    • Over time, it could gradually dispose of the assets to private players.

    2) Narrow mandate

    •  A bad bank must have a specific, narrow mandate with clearly defined goals.
    • Transferring NPLs to a bad bank is not a solution in itself.
    • There must be a clear resolution strategy.
    • Otherwise, allowing a bad bank to exist in perpetuity risks a potential mission creep, which might in the long run threaten financial stability itself.

    3) Diversify the sources of funds for ARC

    • Indian banks remain exposed to these bad loans even after they are transferred to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs).
    • The RBI Bulletin (2021) notes that sources of funds of ARCs have largely been bank-centric.
    • The same banks also continue to hold close to 70 per cent of the total security receipts (SRs).
    • To address this problem, RBI has tightened bank provisioning while liberalising foreign portfolio investment norms.

    4) Resolution of bad loans should be through market mechanism

    • In a steady state, the resolution of bad loans should happen through a market mechanism and not through a multitude of bad banks.
    • In India, the Narasimham Committee (1998) had envisaged a single ARC as a bad bank.
    • Yet, the SARFAESI Act, 2002 ended up creating multiple, privately owned ARCs.
    • As a result, regulations have treated ARCs like bad banks, although functionally they are closer to stressed asset funds registered as Alternative Investment Fund Category II (AIFs).
    • With the setting up of NARCL as a centralised bad bank, the regulatory arbitrage between ARCs and AIFs must end.
    • While AIFs should be allowed to purchase bad loans directly from banks and enjoy enforcement rights under the SARFAESI Act.
    • ARCs should be allowed to purchase stressed assets from mutual funds, insurance companies, bond investors and ECB lenders.
    • ARC trusts should be allowed to infuse fresh equity in distressed companies, within IBC or outside of it.
    • Lastly, the continued interest of the manager/sponsor of ARCs should be at par with AIFs, that is, at least 2.5 per cent in each scheme or Rs 5 crore, whichever is lower.

    Conclusion

    The Chinese experience should nudge Indian policymakers to limit the mandate and tenure of NARCL, while facilitating market-based mechanisms for bad loan resolution in a steady state.

  • Proposal for Integrated Theatre Commands

    The Chief of Defence Staff has held a meeting with the Vice Chiefs of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force, and others in the backdrop of concerns about the proposed model of the integrated theatre commands.

    What are integrated theatre commands?

    • In the simplest words, it is a unified command under which all the resources of the Army, the Navy and the Air Force are pooled, depending on the threat perception.
    • The commands could be geographical — like looking at a border with a particular country — or thematic, like a command for all maritime threats.
    • Several nations in the world have theatre commands, including the United States and China.

    Is theatre commands a new idea?

    • The idea of creating an integrated tri-Services command in India is not new — it had been recommended at various levels after the Kargil conflict.
    • When Gen Rawat was appointed Chief of Defence Staff in January 2020 with a mandate to raise such commands within his three-year tenure, the idea was finally brought to the design table.
    • After his appointment, Gen Rawat had commissioned studies within each of the armed forces to come up with ideas of what these commands could look like.
    • These were headed by the Vice Chiefs of the forces.
    • Last year, Gen Rawat had suggested that the first of these commands, the Air Defence Command, could come up by the end of 2020.
    • However, the process has been delayed due to multiple factors, including the Covid-19 pandemic.
    • Officials are now suggesting that some of the new commands could be rolled out by the end of this year.

    What is the proposal under discussion?

    • A model with four to five integrated tri-Services theatre commands is under discussion, with each command headed by a three-star officer.
    • This officer, the theatre commander, will report to the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC), which, as the name suggests, includes the three Service Chiefs, and is headed by the CDS as its permanent chairman.
    • This brings in a major change — the Service chiefs currently have all the operational control over their forces; operational powers will now move to the COSC.
    • Each of these commands will have the needed assets from all the three forces. Operational control over all of those assets, regardless of the force, will lie with the commander of that theatre.

    The proposed commands are:

    • A Maritime Theatre Command, which will take care of all the maritime security needs of the country on both the eastern and the western seaboards, and will include air strike assets and amphibian forces of the Army.
    • An Air Defence Command, which will be mandated with air defence across the country and beyond. The fighter jets will have reconnaissance and surveillance assets as well.
    • Two or three land-based commands are proposed. If there are two commands, there will be one each for India’s borders with China and Pakistan.
    • But there is also a proposal to have another command looking at India’s borders with Pakistan and China in Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
    • There will be a Logistics Command, which will have the logistics of all the Services under one person; and there will be a Training and Doctrine Command, so that all Services work under a common doctrine and have some basic common training.

    What will be the role of the Services, if not operational?

    • As of now, the Services have to speak to each other in times of need and urgency to request their assets to conduct a particular operation.
    • The proposal is to have a theatre commander who will have operational control of the assets under his command, thus enhancing jointness among the forces, and also reducing duplication of resources.
    • However, this would leave the Service chiefs with no direct control over their assets operationally.
    • This does not mean their roles will be made redundant. Now the Services will have the core tasks to Raise, Train and Sustain their respective forces.
    • Also, as each chief will be a member of the COSC and an expert of his/her domain, his or her inputs will be necessary for all operational decisions.

    Readiness of the services

    • Sources within the Services and the Defence Ministry have mentioned that while the Army and the Navy are on board with the proposal, the Air Force has certain reservations.
    • One, the Air Force does not want the Air Force chief to lose operational control of Air assets, according to the sources.
    • Two, the Air Force is concerned that all of its assets might be divided within these integrated theatres.
    • Sources in the Air Force said that all such concerns need to be addressed before such a significant transformation of the defence set-up takes place.

    How many commands are there now; are any of them tri-Service commands?

    As of now, the three forces have 17 commands between them.

    • The Army has seven commands: Northern, Eastern, Southern, Western, Central, Southwestern and Army Training Command (ARTRAC).
    • The Air Force has seven as well: Western, Eastern, Southern, Southwestern, Central, Training, and Maintenance commands.
    • The Navy has three: Western, Eastern and Southern, of which Southern is largely about training.
    • Even if these commands operate in the same region, they are not co-located, and their areas of operational responsibility are not necessarily the same.
    • There are two existing tri-Service commands as well — the Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC), which is headed by rotation by officers from the three Services.

  • GIMAC: India’s first maritime arbitration centre

    The Gujarat Maritime University signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the International Financial Services Centres Authority in GIFT City to promote the Gujarat International Maritime Arbitration Centre (GIMAC).

    What is GIMAC?

    • The GIMAC will be part of a maritime cluster that the Gujarat Maritime Board (GMB) is setting up in GIFT City at Gandhinagar.
    • The Maritime Board has rented about 10,000 square feet at GIFT House which is part of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) area with clearance from the development commissioner.
    • This will be the first centre of its kind in the country that will manage arbitration and mediation proceedings with disputes related to the maritime and shipping sector.
    • The centre is expected to be ready by the end of August.

    Why is such a centre needed?

    • It is required because, for instance, the ship owners belong to a different country and the person leasing the ship is from another country.
    • Any dispute arising between them can be resolved within this centre.
    • There are over 35 arbitration centres in India. However, none of them exclusively deals with the maritime sector.
    • The arbitration involving Indian players is now heard at the Singapore Arbitration Centre.
    • The idea is to create a world-class arbitration centre focused on maritime and shipping disputes that can help resolve commercial and financial conflicts between entities having operations in India.
    • Globally, London is the preferred centre for arbitration for the maritime and shipping sector.

    What is the current status of the project?

    • The process of recruiting staff for the arbitration centre is currently underway.
    • A 10-member advisory board for GIMAC, consisting of international experts and professionals, has been created, which will help in the framing of rules for the arbitration centre and in empanelling arbitrators.

  • National Anti-Profiteering Authority (NAA)

    The National Anti-Profiteering Authority (NAA) has directed GST officials across the country to ensure that the tax rate cuts notified on some COVID-19-related essentials are passed on to consumers.

    What is National Anti-Profiteering Authority (NAA)?

    • The NAA has been constituted under Section 171 of the Central GST Act, 2017 to ensure that the reduction in the rate of tax or the benefit of the input tax credit is passed on to the recipient by way of commensurate reduction in prices.
    • The decision about the formation of the NAA came in the background of a rate reduction of a large number of items by the GST Council in its 22ndmeeting at Guwahati.
    • At the meeting, the Council reduced rates of more than 200 items including goods and services.
    • This has made a tremendous price reduction effect and the consumers will be benefited only if the traders are making the quick reduction of the prices of respective items.
    • There was a concern that traders are reluctant to make price cuts so that they can make a profit.

    Answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q. Consider the following items:

    1. Cereal grains hulled
    2. Chicken eggs cooked
    3. Fish processed and canned
    4. Newspapers containing advertising material

    Which of the above items is/are exempt under GST (Goods and Services Tax)?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 1, 2 and 4 only

    (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

    What is profiteering?

    • Profiteering means unfair profit realized by traders by manipulating prices, tax rate adjustment etc.
    • In the context of the newly launched GST, profiteering means that traders are not reducing the prices of the commodities when the GST Council reduces the tax rates of commodities and services.
    • Conventionally, several traders will have a strong tendency to quickly increase the price of a commodity whose tax rate has been increased.
    • But on the opposite side, they may delay the price reduction of a commodity whose tax rate has been cut by the government.
    • A delayed or postponed price reduction helps business firms to make a higher profits. The losers here are the consumers.

    Functioning of NAA

    • The Authority’s main function is to ensure that traders are not realizing unfair profit by charging high prices from the consumers in the name of GST.
    • Traders may charge high prices from the consumers by naming the GST factor.
    • Similarly, they may not make quick and corresponding price reductions when the GST Council makes a tax cut. All these constitute profiteering.
    • The responsibility of the NAA is to examine and check such profiteering activities and recommend punitive actions including the cancellation of licenses.

    Steps were taken by the NAA to ensure that customers get the full benefit of tax cuts:

    • Holding regular meetings with the Zonal Screening Committees and the Chief Commissioners of Central Tax to stress upon consumer awareness programs;
    • Launching a helpline to resolve the queries of citizens regarding registration of complaints against profiteering.
    • Receiving complaints through email and the NAA portal.
    • Working with consumer welfare organizations in order to facilitate outreach activities.

  • It’s time for RBI to turn its attention to inflation

    Recently, CPI inflation crossed the RBI’s upper limit of 6%. The article explains the implications of this for various stakeholders.

    How inflation benefits government as a borrower

    • Rising inflation hurts lenders and benefits borrowers.
    • To that extent, the government, one of the biggest borrowers, stands to benefit as high inflation will lower the national debt load in relation to the size of the economy.
    • The Union budget 2021-22 assumed a 14.4 per cent growth in nominal GDP, however, actual growth is set to exceed this.
    • The GDP deflator, which measures the difference between nominal and real GDP, is a weighted average of WPI and CPI, with a higher weightage to WPI.
    • And given that nominal GDP is used as a base for computing the fiscal ratios, all of these will get deflated.
    • The value of past debt and debt servicing costs thus gets pared in real terms as inflation rises.
    • Viewed from a debt dynamics perspective, as the gap between growth and interest rates rises, the debt/GDP ratio falls.

    Impact on other stakeholder

    • That inflation reduces purchasing power and hits private consumption is well known.
    • Overall food CPI inflation (5 per cent) was lower than non-food inflation (7.1 per cent) in May.
    • Lower food inflation, coupled with higher non-food inflation means reduced purchasing power for farmers.
    • Inflation trends, specifically input prices (reflected better by WPI), matter for corporate performance as well.
    • While producers seem to be bearing a part of the burden of rising input costs for now, these could get passed on in greater measure to consumers once demand recovers.
    • Rising inflation reduces returns on fixed income instruments, including bank deposits, which account for over 50 per cent of households’ financial savings.
    • This has already induced a shift to riskier asset classes such as equities, which has ramifications for overall financial stability.

    Way forward

    • The RBI will have to closely monitor inflation trends and calibrate its policy response.
    • It has not intervened on high inflation since the onset of the pandemic and, rightly so, in order to support growth.
    • But the current spell of inflation is over a high base and a continuation of recent trends will persuade it to turn the focus back on inflation.
    •  Given the need for monetary policy to stay accommodative, it might be time to consider other supply-side interventions such as cuts in excise rates on petroleum products to soften the inflation blow.

    Consider the question “As a one of the largest borrowers, how rising inflation benefits the government? How high inflation affects the other sections of the economy?”

    Conclusion

    Given the impact rising inflation has for the braoader sections of the economy, it is time for RBI to turn its attention to inflation.