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GS Paper: GS3

  • What is a Parallel Universe?

    Twitter and other social media platforms are abuzz with the so-called ‘parallel universe’ that NASA has discovered. According to the claims, NASA has detected a parallel universe in Antarctica, where time runs backwards.

     

    ANITA experiment is significant for prelims. It can be asked in prelims in such match the pair questions-

    Q. Consider the following pairs :

    Terms sometimes seen in news                                Context / Topic

    1. Belle 2 experiment –                                        Artificial Intelligence

    2. Blockchain technology –                               Digital Cryptocurrency

    3. CRISPR – Cas9 –                                               Particle Physics

    Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched? (CSP 2018)

    (a) 1 and 3 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) 2 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

    What is a Parallel Universe?

    • In quantum mechanics, a parallel universe is theorized as existing alongside our own, although undetectable.
    • The recent reports claiming that there is evidence of a parallel universe appear to be based on ANITA findings that are at least a couple of years old.
    • A science magazine had published a feature, discussing some anomalous results coming from neutrino detection experiments in Antarctica.
    • It discussed a speculative cosmological model that posits there’s an antimatter universe extending backwards from the BigBang.
    • This theorem was also proposed by famous scientist Stephens Hawking.

    What were the anomalous detections in Antarctica?

    The ANITA experiment

    • Four years ago an experiment had spotted a handful of instances of what seemed to be highly energetic neutrinos coming through the Earth.
    • It was named Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment — a high-altitude helium balloon with an array of radio antennas, partially funded by NASA.
    • The telescope could spot these neutrinos coming from the space and hitting the ice sheet in Antarctica.
    • ANITA detected these particles, but instead of coming from the space, the neutrinos were found to be coming from the Earth’s surface without any source.
    • These detections happened in 2016, then again in 2018, but there was no credible explanation.
    • Physicists have been working to figure out if these results can be explained with our current models of physics or have something to do with the experimental set-up itself, or if something like the parallel universe does exist.

    Back2Basics: Neutrinos

    • A neutrino is a subatomic particle very similar to an electron.
    • But it has no electrical charge and a very small mass, which might even be zero.
    • Neutrinos are one of the most abundant particles in the universe.
    • Because they have very little interaction with matter, they are incredibly difficult to detect.

  • [pib] Kangra Tea and its medicinal properties against the coronavirus

    The chemicals in Kangra tea are found to be effective in boosting immunity as they can block coronavirus activity better than anti-HIV drugs.

    It would be no surprise to expect a question based on worldwide tea production:

    Q. Among the following, which one is the largest exporter of rice in the world in the last five years? (CSP 2019)

    (a) China

    (b) India

    (c) Myanmar

    (d) Vietnam

    Kangra Tea

    • Kangra tea is a tea from the Kangra district in Himachal Pradesh, India.
    • Both black tea and green tea have been produced in the Kangra Valley since the mid-19th century.
    • After a feasibility survey in 1848 showed the area of being suitable for tea plantation, a Chinese variety of Camellia sinensis was planted across the region.
    • Kangra tea is known for its unique colour and flavour.
    • The unique characteristics of the tea are attributed to the geographical properties of the region.
    • Kangra tea was given the Geographical Indication status in 2005. Tea was first grown in the Kangra region in the mid-19th century.

    Benefits of Kangra Tea

    • Using computer-based models, the scientists screened 65 bioactive chemicals or polyphenols that could bind to a specific viral protein more efficiently than commercially available anti-HIV drugs approved for treating COVID-19 patients.
    • These chemicals might block the activity of the viral protein that helps the virus to thrive inside human cells.

    Back2Basics: Lopinavir/ Ritonavir

    • Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r), sold under the brand name Kaletra among others, is a fixed-dose combination medication for the treatment and prevention of HIV/AIDS.
    • It combines lopinavir with a low dose of ritonavir.
    • It is generally recommended for use with other antiretrovirals.

  • Hardly the 1991 moment for agriculture

    Reforms in agri-marketing has been long overdue. So, the government recently announced three reforms in this regard. This article examines the problems of agri-marketing. And it concludes that the said reforms are far from being the silver bullet for these problems. So, why these reforms are not going to be effective? Does demand play any role in the problems agriculture is facing currently? Read to know about these issues.

    Announcement of reforms regarding agricultural marketing

    • The announcement of reforms in agricultural marketing by Finance Minister in May, has been hailed by some as the “1991” moment for agriculture.
    • The three reforms regarding agricultural marketing were the reforms in the 1) Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act, 2) the Essential Commodities Act, 3) Contract farming.
    • All of these have been in discussion for almost two decades, with the APMC Act having already seen substantial reforms in many States.
    • The first comprehensive model act on APMC was proposed during 2003, and since then, similar efforts to push for more reforms have been proposed in 2007, 2013, and as late as 2017 by the present government.

    So, let’s a look at provisions of APMC Act and issues with it

    What is the main argument against APMC Act?

    • Two main arguments against the APMC Act are-
    • 1) It creates barriers to the entry and exit of traders.
    • 2) Makes the sale and purchase of agricultural produce compulsory for farmers as well as traders.

    Different steps taken by the state governments to address the issues

    • So, as many as 17 State governments have amended the APMC Act to make it more liberal.
    • In fact, the regulations and the functioning of mandis vary a great deal across States.
    • Kerala does not have an APMC Act.
    • Bihar repealed it in 2006.
    • But several others such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Odisha, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh deregulated fruits and vegetables trade, allowed private markets, introduced a unified trading licence and have introduced a single-point levy of market fee.
    • Tamil Nadu has already reformed its APMC with no market fee.
    • Several others such as Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Rajasthan have undertaken one or more of these reforms.
    • Many States have introduced direct marketing of farm produce, examples being the Uzhavar Sandhai (Tamil Nadu), the Rythu Bazaar (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), the Raitha Santhe (Karnataka), the Apni Mandi (Punjab) and the Krushak Bazaar – (Odisha).

    So, why the mandis are still blamed for farmers’ problems?

    • Despite the above-stated reforms, APMC mandis continue to be vilified for-1)  all the ills plaguing marketing infrastructure 2) the low prices received by the farmers for their produce.
    • What is the problem? The problem with mandis is not the regulation per se and the structure of mandis but the political interference in the functioning of the markets.
    • These are more obvious in case of large mandis specialising in commercial crops and fruits and vegetables, where production is regionally concentrated.
    • But even with these deficiencies, APMC mandis continue to play an important role in providing access to the market for farmers.

    What the Bihar example teaches us?

    • Bihar repealed the APMC Act in 2006.
    • The general argument in favour of reforms is that 1) it will allow private investment in marketing infrastructure and 2) provide more choices to farmers, leading to better prices received by farmers.
    • But in the case of Bihar,  no investment came in building market infrastructure.
    • The loss of revenue due to the repeal of the APMC also led to deterioration of existing infrastructure in the State.
    • The revenue collected from the APMC earlier was used not only for the modernisation of these market yards but also for the laying of roads and construction of other infrastructure to provide farmers better access to markets.
    • But after the repeal, there have been no takers for these market yards, with no investment in creating private mandis.
    • On the other hand, it has led to proliferation of private unregulated markets which charge a market fee from traders as well as farmers, and without any infrastructure for weighing, sorting, grading and storage.
    • Even in other States where there is deregulation to allow private traders, there is hardly any investment to create market spaces let alone provide other facilities.
    • There is also no evidence that farmers have received better prices in private mandis outside the APMC.
    • While there have been instances of collusion and corruption in the running of the APMC, they continue to provide essential services to farmers.

    Inadequacies of the regulated market

    • As against the recommendation that a regulated market should be available to farmers within a radius of 5 km currently regulated markets is in the radius of 12 km.
    • There are more than 7,000 regulated markets and 20,000 rural markets when the need is at least twice these figures.
    • Most of the existing ones require investment in upgradation of infrastructure.

    Price received is more a function of demand than access to market

    • The argument that the only bottleneck for farmers not receiving remunerative prices is due to the APMC Act is flawed.
    • More than 80% of farmers, most of whom are small and marginal farmers, do not sell their produce in the APMC mandis.
    • For a majority of farmers, prices received are more a function of the demand for agricultural commodities than access to markets.

    So, let’s come to decline in demand for agriculture produce

    • For much of the period during the last two years, terms of trade have moved against agriculture.
    • Agricultural commodity price inflation had been negative for a large part of the last two years.
    • With underlying weakness in demand and obsession with inflation targeting through fiscal and monetary policies, most agricultural commodities have seen a sharp decline in demand and, consequently, prices received by farmers.
    • The argument for choice of markets is only valid as long as there are buyers with purchasing power in the market.
    • No amount of marketing reforms will lead to higher price realisation for farmers if the underlying macroeconomic conditions are unfavourable to agriculture and farmers.

    What is solution to decline in demand?

    • The primary task of the government should have been to increase fiscal spending to revive demand in the economy.
    • This has become even more necessary after the sharp decline in incomes, job losses and decline in demand following the lockdown and expected contraction in economic activity for the year ahead.
    • With international prices also showing declining trend, the urgency is to protect the farmers from the decline in commodity prices.

    Consider the question “Though the APMC Act has often been blamed for the woes of the farmers in price realisation, the act is not the sole reason for price realisation problems faced by the farmers. Critically examine.

    Conclusion

    The announced reforms are less likely to be effective if carried out without consulting the states. And on the demand side, government needs to increase fiscal spending to create demand in the economy. These two steps will go a long way in ensuring higher incomes to farmers.

    Back2Basics: Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Regulation (APMC) Act.

    • All wholesale markets for agricultural produce in states that have adopted the Agricultural Produce Market Regulation Act (APMRA) are termed as “regulated markets”.
    • With the exception of Kerala, J & K, and Manipur, all other states have enacted the APMC Act.
    • It mandates that the sale/purchase of agricultural commodities notified under it are to be carried out in specified market areas, yards or sub-yards. These markets are required to have the proper infrastructure for the sale of farmers’ produce.
    • Prices in them are to be determined by open auction, conducted in a transparent manner in the presence of an official of the market committee.
    • Market charges for various agencies, such as commissions for commission agents (arhtiyas); statutory charges, such as market fees and taxes; and produce-handling charges, such as for cleaning of produce, and loading and unloading, are clearly defined, and no other deduction can be made from the sale proceeds of farmers.
    • Market charges, costs, and taxes vary across states and commodities.

    Essential Commodities Act 1955

    • The ECA is an act which was established to ensure the delivery of certain commodities or products, the supply of which if obstructed owing to hoarding or black-marketing would affect the normal life of the people.
    • The ECA was enacted in 1955. This includes foodstuff, drugs, fuel (petroleum products) etc.
    • It has since been used by the Government to regulate the production, supply and distribution of a whole host of commodities it declares ‘essential’ in order to make them available to consumers at fair prices.
    • Additionally, the government can also fix the maximum retail price (MRP) of any packaged product that it declares an “essential commodity”.
    • The list of items under the Act includes drugs, fertilizers, pulses and edible oils, and petroleum and petroleum products.
    • The Centre can include new commodities as and when the need arises, and takes them off the list once the situation improves.

    How ECA works?

    • If the Centre finds that a certain commodity is in short supply and its price is spiking, it can notify stock-holding limits on it for a specified period.
    • The States act on this notification to specify limits and take steps to ensure that these are adhered to.
    • Anybody trading or dealing in the commodity, be it wholesalers, retailers or even importers are prevented from stockpiling it beyond a certain quantity.
    • A State can, however, choose not to impose any restrictions. But once it does, traders have to immediately sell into the market any stocks held beyond the mandated quantity.
    • This improves supplies and brings down prices. As not all shopkeepers and traders comply, State agencies conduct raids to get everyone to toe the line and the errant are punished.
    • The excess stocks are auctioned or sold through fair price shops.

  • [pib] L7 Quadricycle category for BS VI

    The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has issued a notification regarding the emission norms for L7 (Quadricycle) category for BS-VI.

    Practice question for Mains:

    Q. What are Bharat Stage Emission Standards (BSES)? Discuss how the early implementation of BS-VI norms will help curb vehicular pollution in India.

    What is Quadricycle Vehicle verification?

    • The quadricycle is a European Union vehicle category for four-wheeled microcars, which allows these vehicles to be designed to less stringent requirements when compared to regular cars.
    • Quadricycles are defined by limitations in terms of weight, engine power and speed.
    • There are two categories of quadricycles: light quadricycles (L6e) and heavy quadricycles (L7e)

    What are the new notified norms?

    • These norms are applicable from the date of notification.
    • This notification completes the process of BS-VI for all L, M and N category vehicles in India.
    • The emission norms are in line with EU with WMTC cycle.
    • The procedure for testing is laid down in Automotive Industry Standard (AIS) 137-Part 9.

    What is the WMTC cycle?

    • The World Motorcycle Test Cycle (WMTC) is a system of driving cycles used to measure fuel consumption and emissions in motorcycles.
    • The methods are stipulated as part of the Global Technical Regulation established under the UN World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations, also known as WP.29.

    Back2Basics:  Bharat Stage Norms

    Standard Reference Date of Implementation
    Bharat Stage II Euro 2 1 April 2005
    Bharat Stage III Euro 3 1 April 2010
    Bharat Stage IV Euro 4 1 April 2017
    Bharat Stage VI Euro 6 April 2020 with a mandate (proposed)

    Minutes of BS-VI

    • Carmakers would have to put three pieces of equipment — a DPF (diesel particulate filter), an SCR (selective catalytic reduction) system, and an LNT (Lean NOx trap) — to meet stringent BS-VI norms, all at the same time.
    • This is vital to curb both PM (particulate matter) and NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions as mandated under the BS-VI norms.

    How is BS-VI Different from BS-IV?

    • The major difference between the existing BS-IV and forthcoming BS-VI norms is the presence of sulphur in the fuel.
    • While the BS-IV fuels contain 50 parts per million (ppm) sulphur, the BS-VI grade fuel only has 10 ppm sulphur content.
    • Also, the harmful NOx (nitrogen oxides) from diesel cars can be brought down by nearly 70%.
    • In the petrol cars, they can be reduced by 25%.
    • However, when we talk about air pollution, particulate matter like PM 2.5 and PM 10 are the most harmful components and the BS-VI will bring the cancer-causing particulate matter in diesel cars by a phenomenal 80%.

  • Digital currency plan made in China

    Central banks all over the world have had mixed feelings towards cryptocurrencies. Some of them have resorted to banning them altogether. And yet, cryptocurrencies exist and have been flourishing. But China seems to be bent on taking the “road less travelled”. This article explains the various aspects underlying the China’s move. These somehow apply to all the central banks, including the RBI. Read more to know more about such aspects.

    Digital currency by China’s central bank

    • In December 2019, a pilot programme was launched in Beijing to intensively advance the trial work of fintech innovation regulation.
    • This pilot has now been expanded to include several other cities.
    • This expansion of the pilot marks the initiation of China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC).
    • Christened Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP), available via a mobile wallet app.
    • It is pegged 1:1 with fiat currency, and designed to replace M0 which comprises currency issued by the PBoC less the amount held by banking institutions.
    • This is the first such serious initiative in the whole world.

    Why central banks are sceptical of cryptocurrencies?

    • Historically, monetary authorities everywhere have been sceptical of cryptocurrencies.
    • The reasons for scepticism includes following problems-
    • 1) Wild fluctuations in the value of cryptocurrencies.
    • 2) The implied challenge to the monopoly of central banks in issuing fiat currencies.
    • 3) The looming possibility of software bugs.
    • 4) The tainted shadow of the dark web.

    But some central banks have been planning to issue fiat digital currency

    • Authorities were far more intrigued by CBDCs.
    • In fact, the Basel-based Bank for International Settlement (BIS) has been conducting surveys on this issue for some time.
    • The recent survey of 2019 “Proceeding with Caution – a Survey on Central Bank Digital Currency” revealed that while in general, central banks have been proceeding cautiously towards introducing central banks digital currencies.
    • Some have been planning to issue a fiat digital currency in the short to medium term.
    • In particular, the survey revealed that nearly 25% of central banks have the required authority to issue a CBDC, while a third do not, and 40% remain unsure.

    If you cannot beat them, join them

    • So, what factors led China to release the cryptocurrency?
    • Chinese investors were always attracted to cryptocurrencies.
    • With the bearish turn in the Chinese stock market in 2015-16, bitcoins became increasingly popular as an alternative asset class in China.
    • As in media reports, in the recent past, China has emerged as the capital of the crypto ecosystem, accounting for nearly 90% of trading volumes and hosting two-thirds of bitcoin mining operations.
    • The PBoC tried hard to curtail this exuberance but achieved limited success.
    • The recent move to introduce the CBDC in China is a logical outcome of the efforts to curb and tackle its runaway cryptomarket practices.
    • Or, the philosophy of the PBoC could simply have been, if you cannot beat them, join them.

    Advantages and concerns

    • At a practical level, the benefits of CBDC are manifold.
    • First, paper money comes with high handling charges and eats up 1% to 2% of GDP.
    • Second, by acting as a powerful antidote for tax evasion, money laundering and terror financing, CBDCs can materially boost tax revenues while also improving financial compliance and national security.
    • Third, as a tool of financial inclusion, particularly in emergencies, direct benefit transfers can be instantly delivered by state authorities deep into rural areas, directly into the mobile wallets of citizens who need them.
    •  Fourth, CBDCs can provide central banks with an uncluttered view and powerful insights into purchasing patterns at the citizen scale.
    • In the long run, it is believed that CBDCs will make cross-border payments fast and frictionless.

    Concerns

    • All these salutary benefits come packaged with a deep and abiding concern about the relentless rise of a surveillance state and the concomitant erosion in citizen privacy and anonymity.
    • If face-recognition technology enables states to spy on the physical movement of citizens, will CBDCs be used to spy on every movement of their money?

    But how Central bank’s digital currency is different from private cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin?

    • An earlier research paper by PBoC Deputy Governor favoured a two-tier CBDC model.
    • In this model instead of directly interacting with the public, the central bank would involve financial intermediaries such as commercial banks.
    • In tier 1, the central bank would interface with financial intermediaries.
    • In tier 2, the financial intermediaries would interface with the general public.
    • Advantage? Such a model is accretive in that it preserves the power of existing financial systems and extends their influence further.
    • It is believed that the DCEP uses a DLT architecture (with central controls) which preserves the primacy of the monetary authority, unlike private cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) that are truly decentralised.

    Silver bullet to slay three dragons

    • What may China be signalling with the launch of DCEP?
    • First, on the world economic stage, it may want DCEP to challenge the hegemony of the U.S. dollar as the default global reserve currency.
    • Second, in its war with American BigTech, it may want to showcase DCEP as its weapon of choice to counter FB or Facebook’s Libra, which is planning to offer a common cryptocurrency to 2 billion-plus FB users across the world.
    • Third, and still in the realm of speculation, it may wish to use the DCEP to clip the wings of AliPay and WeChatPay, gigantic fintech duopolies that control 90% of the China’s domestic digital payments, and whose ambitions may one day pose a threat to the aura and authority of the central bank.

    Consider the question “Most of the central banks have been sceptical in their attitude toward the cryptocurrencies. Yet, they persisted. Next came the Supreme Court decision lifting ban on them. In light of this, examine the advantages and concerns that come with the cryptocurrencies.”

    Conclusion

    From gold to silver to paper to digital, the march of currencies goes on. China has rolled the dice on central bank digital currencies, challenging other nations to follow. Welcome to the future of money.

  • Neglect of demand side

    What should the government focus on first: increasing demand or streamlining the supply side. This question is at the heart of the debate that has been going on after the government announced the stimulus package. This article argues on two lines- Inadequate size of the package and the neglect of the demand side in the package.

    Why stakeholders are not happy with the package?

    • Agriculture sector: There is relief for agriculture in the form of a concessional credit line of Rs 2 trillion, but loans are neither automatic or assured.
    •  Marketing reforms and infrastructure creation are distant promises.
    • MSME sector:  The backbone of the economy that provides 25 per cent of employment, 32 per cent of the GDP and 45 per cent of exports, is unhappy despite the Rs 3 trillion line of credit for loans without collateral.
    • In their experience, lenders are not always supportive in extending loans.
    • While buyers-central and state governments, public sector firms and the private sector- owe them as much as Rs 5 trillion.
    • What is more, most MSMEs just do not have the resources to pay wages or meet fixed costs on electricity, rent or interest during the lockdown period.
    • Corporate sector: There is nothing for the corporate sector in manufacturing or services.
    • The distressed sectors such as airlines, automobiles, hotels, restaurants, and tourism have been ignored.
    • Ironically, there is little for public health, already in a dilapidated state.
    • Even stock markets, characterised by irrational exuberance in the past month, have dropped.

    Government expenditure in the fiscal stimulus

    • The fiscal stimulus, which can be defined as government expenditure that could stimulate demand, is difficult to separate.
    • This is because the package is neither clear nor transparent about the cost to be borne by the government in each component.
    • Even so, there are 12 estimates by analysts in financial sector institutions, suggesting that the fiscal stimulus is in the range of 0.7 per cent to 1.3 per cent of the GDP.
    • The effective fiscal stimulus, in terms of extra resources provided by the government, is Rs 1.76 trillion, or 0.8 per cent of the GDP.
    • Its contribution to domestic demand will be minuscule, given that private final consumer expenditure in India is about 60 per cent of the GDP.

    Focus of the package: supply side

    • It is clear that the design of this relief package seeks to focus on the supply side.
    • Package emphasises on providing liquidity through lines of credit, where the RBI is providing as much as Rs 8 trillion.
    • Focus is not on the demand side by stepping up government expenditure.
    • This is done with the aim of minimising the cost to the government.
    • The arithmetic is obviously imaginative — as much as Rs 10 trillion of the relief package will have to be financed by sources other than the Centre and the RBI.

    So, let’s understand why focus on supply side is flawed strategy

    • This stress on the supply-side, while neglecting the demand-side, reveals a flawed understanding of economies in crisis.
    • Speed of adjustment: Even in normal circumstances, the speed of adjustment of the supply-side is slow because supply responses take time.
    • Whereas the speed of adjustment on the demand-side is fast as incomes spent raise consumption demand without any time-lag.
    • At present, if there is little or no increase in demand, supply responses will be slower than usual because producers would not wish to pile up inventories of unsold goods.
    • In terms of the chicken-and-egg parable, demand must be revived first to kickstart the economy.
    • For this reason, the fiscal stimulus should have been much larger.

    Excessive concerns over fiscal deficit

    • The decision-makers have been timid, intimidated by the prospect that, because of revenue shortfalls (2 per cent of the GDP or more), the fiscal deficit would be 5.5 per cent of the GDP.
    • Which would have exceeded the budget estimate at 3.5 per cent of the GDP.
    • The conclusion drawn, wrongly, is that there is no fiscal space.
    • The obsessive concern about the fiscal deficit is deeply embedded in government thinking.
    • In this situation, the extra fiscal stimulus should have been Rs 7-9 trillion i.e. 3-4 per cent of the GDP and that would have been modest compared to what other countries have done.

    Monetising the deficit  and issues involved in doing so

    • This enlarged fiscal deficit (3-4 % of GDP) cannot be financed by market borrowing.
    • Such market borrowing would simply drive up interest rates and nip recovery in the bud.
    • It would have to be financed by monetising the deficit — RBI buying government T-bills — printing money, now termed “helicopter money”.
    • Inflation concerns: The idea that monetised deficits will unleash inflation is blind to the reality that, at this juncture, if there is no further intervention by the government, the GDP could contract by 5 per cent in 2020-21, with lingering consequences.
    • In fact, a monetised deficit might be the only way of increasing aggregate demand to revive economic growth.
    • Rating downgrade issue: The worry about a downgrade from credit rating agencies is bizarre.
    • For one, their ethics and integrity have seen steady erosion.
    • Moreover, how many sovereign governments will they downgrade?
    • In fact, we might be better off without the footloose and volatile portfolio investment inflows.

    Consider the question- “Do you agree with the view that the focus of the supply side should be at the heart of any stimulus package announced in the financial crisis? Give reasons in the support of your agreement.”

    Conclusion

    If the government does not accept the necessity or wisdom of expansionary macroeconomic policies, it must set out its alternative plan for recovery. The relief package will not suffice.

  • Focus on supply side

    Whether to focus on supply side or demand side is the dilemma governments often face while deciding the measures to cure the ailing economy. This article explains using basic economics and evidence from across the world to make the case for a focus on the supply side. In doing so, it explains the problems with demand side measures such as cash transfers and tax rebets.

    Issue of neglect of demand side

    • The Union government is often criticised for its apparent neglect of the demand side and its excessive focus on the supply side.
    • Structural reforms — the COVID-19 package was no exception.
    • Low credit growth, weak inflation, and flat wage growth are the factors focused by demand-side proponents.
    • The deand side proponents suggest measures such as cash transfers, income tax cuts, and cheap credit to consumers.

    So, let’s focus on Demand vs. Supply side debate

    Low growth in credit to MSME

    • A demand shock typically leads to a rise in both volume and the price.
    • A supply shock not only hurts the volume but also leads to price rise.
    • In banking, a good proxy for the price of credit is the spread.
    • Spread is difference between lending rate and the funding rate  repo rate or deposit rates for the banks.
    • The spread reflects the risk premium banks charge to their customers.
    • The spread has consistently risen from just below 4 per cent at the start of 2018 to around 6 per cent in January 2020.
    • That means, the banks charged 4-6 per cent more on loan than it paid to its depositor or to RBI on the funds it got from them.
    • The fact that spreads are rising was highlighted by the 2019 Economic Survey as well.
    • At the same time, the credit growth — especially for public banks and to the MSME sector — has been sluggish for the previous two to three years.
    • The MSME sector witnessed sub-zero credit growth for the whole of 2017 and even now, the credit growth is very tepid at around 2 per cent Y-o-Y.
    • Rising spreads with lower credit volume provide a clear sign that credit supply is broken.

    What a paper by Nobel laureates on MSME says?

    • Paper by Nobel laureates Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo examines the reasons for MSME problems.
    • The paper amply highlights the fact that the MSME sector suffers from lack of credit availability to finance investments rather than the lack of demand for credit.
    • They showed that when the government changed the definition of small firms, the firms newly covered by the priority sector lending programme used the extra credit to increase production and investment.
    • If there was no demand for credit, cheaper credit under the priority sector programme should have been used to repay the older expensive sources of borrowings.

    So, how will the recently announced package help MSEs?

    • Consistent with this view, we think that the government’s approach of guaranteeing SME credit by resolving the risk-sharing problem for banks will expand credit to credit-starved SMEs at lower credit spreads.
    • Similarly, expansion of the universe of small/medium firms will bring fresh investments from the firms, which are newly covered under priority sector programme as they will be able to get cheaper credit.

    2 Measures to increase consumer demand and issues involved

    1. Direct transfers schemes

    • No doubt that cash-transfers are superior to distortive subsidies and the “Garib Kalyan” package was a step in this direction.
    • In fact, the government has already transferred close to Rs 40,000 crore to bank accounts including Rs 10,000 crore to women under PMJDY.

    But is cash-transfers the ultimate solution to recovery?

    • In fact, the PMJDY account balance has increased.
    • The increase is from close to Rs 1,17,000 crore before the advent of COVID-19 to Rs 1,35,911 crore as of May 13 .
    • This is a massive jump of close to Rs 18,000 crore.
    • Recent research by Prasanna Tantri and co-authors shows that PMJDY account holders actively use the accounts — 1.12 transactions per quarter compared to the World Bank standard of one transaction.
    • In fact, PMJDY accounts see withdrawals when account holders are in distress, according to the study.
    • So the rise in balances is not mechanical.

    So, why are they not spending?

    • It’s not that people covered under PMJDY are comfortable financially.
    • A number of papers show that tax rebates boost demand in the short-run, but the quantum is limited.
    • For example, Sumit Agarwal and his co-authors show that the 2001 tax rebate programme in the US led to an average spending of only $60 on $500 rebate over nine months.
    • A recent study at the Kellogg Business School by Christian Borda and co-authors shows that tax rebates after the 2008 crisis in the US led to rise in spending, but by only 3.5 per cent in the first month of the rebates.
    • The crux is that no rational consumer goes on a consumption spree when he is facing job uncertainty!

    2. What about providing cheap credit to customers?

    • Trying to boost demand by providing cheap credit to consumers is not a good idea either as evidenced by the debt-financed housing boom in the US, which led to the 2008 crisis.
    • In fact, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, using a large panel of 30 countries, uncover a more general pattern — an increase in household debt to GDP ratio leads to a sustained drop in future GDP, investments, and unemployment.
    • On the other hand, the economic cycles are much more muted when the initial growth is caused by structural reforms as pointed in a recent IMF study covering over 80 countries.

    Consider the question “Whenever governments decide on the stimulus package amid financial crises, supply side vs. demand side debate flares up. This has also been the case in India as the government announced the stimulus package recently. In light of this, examine the issues involved in demand side measures.”

    Conclusion

    To put the burden of recovery on risk-averse consumers, incentivising them to spend rather than save when there is employment uncertainty, is against any reasonable risk-sharing principle. Risk should be borne by those who have the appetite — the firms and government.

  • [pib] Initiatives launched on International Day of Biodiversity

    In a virtual celebration of the International Day for Biological Diversity 2020, Union Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) has launched key initiatives towards conservation of biodiversity.

    Possible prelim question:

    The ‘Not all Animals Migrate by Choice’ campaign recently seen in news is an initiative by __________.

    About the International Day for Biological Diversity

    • This Day is a United Nations-sanctioned international day for the promotion of biodiversity issues.
    • It is currently held on May 22.
    • The year 2020 is also the “Super Year for Biodiversity”, as the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity with 20 global Aichi targets adopted in 2010 ends in 2020.

    1) Biodiversity Samrakshan Internship Programme

    • The program proposes to engage 20 students with postgraduate degrees for a period of one year through an open, transparent, online competitive process.
    • It has the National Biodiversity Authority (NBA) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) as a nodal agency.

     2) ‘Not all Animals Migrate by Choice’ campaign

    • It is a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Campaign launched by the Wildlife Crime Control Bureau on Illegal Trafficking of Endangered Species.
    • It aims to curb illegal trade in wildlife which carries the risk of spreading dangerous pandemics.

    Back2Basics: Aichi Targets

    • The ‘Aichi Targets’ were adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) at its Nagoya conference.
    • The short term plan provides a set of 20 ambitious yet achievable targets, collectively known as the Aichi Targets.
    • The IUCN Species Programme provides advice to Parties, other governments and partners on the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and it’s Aichi Biodiversity Targets (2011 – 2020) and is also heavily involved in work towards the Target.

  • In news: International Tea Day

    The ‘International Tea Day’ gets thumbs up from the UN. Tea is the most consumed drink in the world, second only to water.

    It would be no surprise to expect a question based on worldwide tea production:

    Q. Among the following, which one is the largest exporter of rice in the world in the last five years? (CSP 2019)

    (a) China

    (b) India

    (c) Myanmar

    (d) Vietnam

    International Tea Day

    • While the UN has been aware of the popularity of the drink, May 21, 2020, became the first time when it recognized and gave an official nod to International Tea Day.
    • The UN General Assembly proclaimed May 21 as International Tea Day.
    • The day is aimed at promoting sustainable production, consumption and trade of tea.
    • As part of the celebrations, key players in tea production come together and make systematic plans for expansion of demand for tea, particularly in tea producing countries where per capita consumption is relatively low.
    • This day also reminds all actors at global, regional and national levels to ensure that the tea sector continues to play a role in reducing extreme poverty, fighting hunger and safeguarding natural resources.

    Tea

    • Tea is an aromatic beverage commonly prepared by pouring hot or boiling water over cured leaves of the Camellia sinensis, an evergreen shrub native to East Asia.
    • After water, it is the most widely consumed drink in the world.
    • There are many different types of tea; some, like Darjeeling and Chinese greens, have a cooling, slightly bitter, and astringent flavour.
    • Tea has a stimulating effect in humans primarily due to its caffeine content.
    • China is the leading producer of tea in the world. (Ref.)

    Its significance

    • In 2018, over 50 lakh tonnes of tea was consumed globally, according to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN.
    • The origin of tea plantations dates back to 5,000 years. Like many cultures, tea enjoys a special space in Indian culture.
    • With more than 100 varieties being consumed in the country, India is among the top four producers of tea.
    • Currently, tea is grown in more than 35 countries and supports 1.3 crore people including smallholder farmers around the globe.

    Back2Basics: Tea cultivation in India

    • India is the second producer of tea in the world and second in terms of land devoted to tea growing as well.
    • Much of India’s tea production is concentrated in the areas of Darjeeling, Nilgiri, Dooars, and Assam, which is the single largest tea growing region in the world. The top 5 growing states in India, ranked by production, are:

    1) Assam

    2) West Bengal

    3) Tamil Nadu

    4) Kerala

    5) Karnataka

  • Structural issues in agri-marketing

    The article discusses the structural issues that may not go away with the reforms announced by the government recently. Issues like inadequacies in APMC infrastructure, regulation of APMCs need are discussed in detail.

    What is the issue?

    • The Union government signalled the intention to enact a new central law.
    • The new law would override existing state regulations that restrict the farmer from legally selling to anyone other than a buyer licensed by the local Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC).
    • The decision to push for a central law comes after dissatisfaction with two decades of partial and uneven reforms by different states.

    So, will the change in the law solve the marketing problem?

    •  This will be overstating the power of legal reform in guaranteeing economic freedom and outcomes.
    • The problems farmers face are of two type-
    • 1) Problems that are a result of vested, monopolistic interests.
    • 2) Problems that are rooted in larger structural conditions that significantly weaken their terms of engagement in agricultural markets.
    • Type 1 may be addressed by regulatory intervention.
    • But type 2 will need location-specific policies, well-directed investment, and well-functioning agricultural institutions.
    • So, solving either of these problems require consensus, coordination and capacity in which the states will need to play a major role.

    Why do farmers sell their produce outside APMC mandis?

    • The dominant narrative is that farmers are forced to sell their produce only to licensed APMC traders.
    • But the reality is that even today the majority of Indian farmers sell their produce to small-scale and largely unlicensed traders and intermediaries.
    • This is true, especially of small and marginal cultivators.
    • But, if farmers are bound by law to sell in APMC mandis, why are so many of them selling outside?

    But, do we have enough mandis?

    • At least part of the answer to the question of why farmers sell outside mandis is that India still doesn’t have enough mandis.
    • Over the decades, most states in general, and specific regions in particular, have hugely under-invested in the basic infrastructure required to create viable, primary wholesale markets within easy physical reach of farmers.
    • The 2017 Doubling Farmers Income Report estimates that in addition to the current 6,676 principal and sub-market yards under APMCs India needs over 3,500 additional wholesale markets.
    • Approximately 23,000 rural periodic markets (or haats) have also suffered long-standing neglect.
    • So, the new allocation towards market infrastructure must be fully utilised to build up an appropriately designed physical marketing ecosystem, especially in remote regions.
    • Most importantly, unlike in the past, this process should engage deeply with farmers and traders in each location to avoid misdirected and misplaced infrastructure and assets.

    Regulatory reforms in mandis needed

    • Where APMC mandis do exist and have established themselves as dominant market sites, mandi committees have typically done everything in their power to restrict competition.
    • Obtaining a licence for a new entrant — has most often proved to be a bureaucratic nightmare and a costly affair.
    • This is where regulatory reform to remove conflicts of interests, enable the entry of new buyers, and facilitate the flow of trade both within and outside the mandi system is absolutely crucial.
    • No state has done enough in this direction, but here too there are cautionary lessons.

    Perils of complete deregulation: Example of Bihar

    • Complete deregulation, as we have seen in the decade following Bihar’s repeal of its APMC Act in 2006, does not necessarily transform agricultural markets and spur competition.
    • Even after all restrictions were lifted, there was little uptake in direct procurement by formal players in the state.
    • When corporations entered the maize market in a big way, they chose to buy from larger traders and aggregators and not from farmers.
    • Most farmers have seen little change in marketing practice and continue to sell to village traders as they had done before the repeal.
    • Where private markets have emerged — mainly for horticultural produce — they are constituted and run by local traders and commission agents.
    • But across the system, traders complain about deteriorating infrastructure.
    • And the regulatory vacuum has led to the proliferation of brokers to deal with counter-party risk in growing and dynamic commodity markets such as maize.

    Benefits of limited degree of regulation: MP and Karnataka example

    • Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka have undertaken some degree of regulatory reform instead of repeal.
    • In these states, we do observe, at least to some extent, the fruits of competition.
    • In the early 2000s, MP granted ITC a licence to set up procurement hubs outside mandi yards.
    • Establishment of ITC procurement hubs not only resulted in price competition, but also from electronic weighing and quick payments, as mandis upgraded in response.
    • But ITC’s procurement channel was understandably restricted to select commodities (and qualities), seasons and farms within its own commercial strategy.
    • These limitations revealed the mandi’s comparative advantage as a permanent multi-buyer, multi-commodity market for all local producers.
    • The key lesson to draw from studies of direct procurement and contracting is the need for a regulatory architecture that enables both new and existing systems to respond, adapt, and compete.

    Issue of intermediation

    •  Small traders and intermediaries exist — and persist — because they are able to respond — in cash, credit, time and place — to the multiple needs of farmers and firms across the interconnected domains of production, marketing, processing and consumption.
    • This is not to say that they do not exploit farmers when the opportunity arises.
    • So, the organised and technologically driven procurement and marketing systems will only work if they manage to address the real constraints that farmers face on the ground, especially access to credit, inputs, storage, transport, and timely payments.
    • Most of these constraints originate in the relations of land ownership and access and the limits and exclusions they impose on smallholding farmers and landless cultivators.
    • Simply put, farmers will not be in a position to exercise any newly granted regulatory freedom in the market if they cannot overcome these constraints.
    • Equally, while increasing competition for intermediaries is desirable, their elimination is a misguided — and indeed dangerous — objective if one does not respect or replace the roles and risks that they cover.

    Issue of re-regulation and new barriers to entry

    • Agriculture is at the very heart of the essential economy and our food system runs on the backs of small-scale producers, traders, commission agents, processors, wholesalers, retailers, and labourers.
    • Regulatory reform to increase competition must not degenerate into re-regulation that unduly favours large-scale consolidation and channel control by erecting new barriers to entry and operation for agro-commercial MSMEs.

    The UPSC asked a direct question about the APMC Act in 2014- ” There is also a point of view that Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMCs) set up under the State Acts have not only impeded the development of agriculture but also have been the cause of food inflation in India. Critically examine.”

    Conclusion

    While going for the reforms government must consider the issues underlying the problems and try to address them. We must recognise and strengthen the diversity, dynamism, enterprise, and resilience of India’s agricultural markets.