Why in the News

Bangladesh’s temporary suspension of visa and consular services at its missions in New Delhi and Agartala signals heightened diplomatic sensitivity. Bangladesh is undergoing a phase of acute political uncertainty following the removal of Sheikh Hasina, accompanied by the rapid capture of state institutions by right-wing Islamist forces.

Introduction

Bangladesh’s political crisis is rooted in a cycle of exaggerated leadership narratives, institutional erosion, and manufactured external enemies. The replacement of governance accountability with ideological mobilisation has weakened democratic foundations and distorted public discourse. 

What explains Bangladesh’s recurring political instability?

1. Leadership-centric politics: Political legitimacy remains tied to personalities rather than institutions, resulting in fragile democratic consolidation.
2. Hero-villain narratives: Excessive glorification of Sheikh Hasina and vilification of successors undermines rational political assessment.
3. Institutional weakness: Democratic institutions lack resilience to withstand regime transitions.

How has regime change altered Bangladesh’s political balance?

1. Islamist consolidation: Right-wing Islamist groups have expanded influence by filling governance vacuums.
2. Institutional capture: Key state institutions have been overtaken, weakening checks and balances.
3. Ideological polarisation: Governance discourse has shifted from policy to identity mobilisation.

Why is India projected as the ‘false enemy’?

1. Scapegoating strategy: Blaming India diverts attention from domestic governance failures.
2. Misleading narratives: India is framed as obstructing Bangladesh’s development and identity.
3. Public misperception: Social media amplification sustains false external blame.

What role do political parties play in deepening the crisis?

1. BNP repositioning: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party seeks electoral revival through mobilisation rather than reform.
2. Jamaat-e-Islami resurgence: Ideological groups leverage instability to normalise radical discourse.
3. Electoral uncertainty: Premature elections risk further destabilisation amid weak state capacity.

Why are elections insufficient to restore democracy?

1. Procedural democracy gap: Elections without institutional strength fail to ensure legitimacy.
2. Administrative fragility: Limited state capacity undermines free and fair electoral conduct.
3. Exclusionary politics: Absence of inclusive participation erodes democratic credibility.

What risks does Bangladesh face going forward?

1. Radicalisation drift: Ideological dominance threatens pluralism and minority security.
2. Governance paralysis: Competing factions weaken decision-making authority.
3. Regional implications: Political instability impacts South Asian strategic balance.

What is the China angle in Bangladesh’s political churn?

1. Strategic vacuum utilisation: Political instability creates space for expanded Chinese influence through economic and political engagement.
2. Infrastructure leverage: Governance uncertainty increases reliance on externally financed infrastructure projects.
3. Narrative competition: Anti-India discourse indirectly strengthens China’s positioning as a non-interfering partner.
4. Regional balance shift: Weak democratic institutions reduce Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy in great-power competition.
5. Policy asymmetry: Absence of institutional checks amplifies external strategic influence.

How does the crisis impact Bangladesh-India relations?

1. Trust deficit: Sustained political narratives portraying India as a hostile actor weaken diplomatic goodwill and public perception.
2. Policy continuity stress: Regime change and ideological flux reduce predictability in bilateral cooperation frameworks.
3. Security spillovers: Political instability raises risks of cross-border radicalisation and misinformation.
4. Economic engagement uncertainty: Domestic volatility constrains long-term trade, transit, and connectivity initiatives.
5. Diplomatic insulation: India’s limited engagement approach reduces exposure to Bangladesh’s internal political churn.

Way Forward

1. Diplomatic Restraint
   1. Non-intervention posture: Preserves India’s credibility by avoiding actions that validate external-interference narratives.
   2. Institutional engagement: Sustains dialogue strictly through formal diplomatic channels.
   3. Crisis insulation: Limits bilateral fallout from Bangladesh’s internal political volatility.
2. Narrative Neutralisation
   1. Public messaging discipline: Avoids rhetoric that could be appropriated by domestic political actors in Bangladesh.
3. Functional Engagement Focus
   1. Issue-based cooperation: Anchors bilateral interaction in non-political domains.
   2. Institutional continuity: Keeps technical and bureaucratic channels operational despite political churn.
   3. Long-term stability: Avoids transactional engagement tied to regime personalities.
4. Strategic Autonomy Preservation
   1. Non-alignment in internal contests: Avoids perceived preference for any political or ideological group.
   2. Regional balance: Prevents third-party strategic leverage arising from bilateral tensions.
   3. Policy patience: Accepts delayed outcomes over short-term visibility.

Conclusion

Bangladesh’s crisis is primarily self-inflicted, arising from weak institutions, ideological opportunism, and misplaced blame. Sustainable democracy requires rebuilding institutional credibility rather than pursuing electoral quick fixes or external scapegoats. India’s role remains marginal to Bangladesh’s internal democratic outcomes.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2022] “India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.” Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in the light of the preceding statement.

Linkage: It tests India’s neighbourhood policy during internal political crises. This is directly comparable to India’s constrained engagement and diplomatic restraint in Bangladesh.

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