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Context

• On 2nd August 2022, after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the Chinese have been conducting aggressive military drills near Taiwan. This situation is so critical that a minor miscalculation here and there could escalate this conflict to World War III itself.

• In this edition of the burning issue, we would try to delve into the possible war strategy of China to attack and acquire Taiwan. How could this little island of Taiwan with the support of the American and Japanese armies defend against the mighty Chinese army and how could this battle of Taiwan lead to the horrific World War III.

What is the issue between China and Taiwan?

• Taiwan is an island about 160 km off the coast of south-eastern China, opposite the Chinese cities of Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xiamen. It was administered by the imperial Qing dynasty, but its control was passed to the Japanese in 1895. After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the island passed back into Chinese hands.
• After the communists led by Mao Zedong won the civil war in mainland China, Chiang Kai-shek, the leader of the nationalist Kuomintang party, fled to Taiwan in 1949.
• Chiang Kai-shek set up the government of the Republic of China on the island and remained President until 1975.
• Beijing has never recognized the existence of Taiwan as an independent political entity, arguing that it was always a Chinese province under its ‘One China Policy‘. The PRC considers the island as a renegade province awaiting reunification by peaceful means, if possible.
• This has generated strong opposition from the Taiwanese government and people. To protect its sovereignty, Taiwan remains closer to the US, buying weapons from it and thus irking China. This has become a major bone of contention between the two.

Importance of Taiwan to China

• TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the largest foundry in the world and holds around 65 percent of the global production of chips.
• Any potential conflict with China would completely disrupt the entire supply chain of TSMC and labor availability and could cause a major shortage of electronic chips.
• Being in close vicinity of China, any alliance or engagement of Taiwan with any of the enemies of China would threaten its national security. Thus, it’s necessary for China to control Taiwan’s engagements with other  

Importance of Taiwan for the US

• Strategic importance– After Japan, Taiwan is the geographically closest friendly territory around China for the US in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Economic importance– US-Taiwan has a bilateral trade of $105 billion with the US high dependence on Taiwanese semiconductor chips.
• Gaining lost credibility– the current crisis is about re-establishing steadily diminishing American credibility in the eyes of friends and foes through Taiwan.

China’s War Strategy

(A) Grey-zone warfare

• The People’s Liberation Army – is waging so-called Grey-Zone warfare against Taiwan.
• This consists of an almost daily campaign of intimidating military exercises, patrols and surveillance that falls just short of armed conflict.
• The campaign has intensified, with Beijing stepping up the number of warplanes it is sending into the airspace around Taiwan. China has also used sand dredgers to swarm Taiwan’s outlying islands.
• Military strategists tell that the grey-zone strategy has the potential to grind down Taipei’s resistance – but also that it may fall short, or even backfire by strengthening the island’s resolve.

(B) Impose a blockade on Taiwan’s Matsu and Kingman islands

• If a long campaign of grey-zone warfare fails to bring Taipei to the negotiating table the next step by China would be to impose a blockade on Taiwan’s Matsu and Kinmen Island which are just a few kilometers away from mainland China.
• Since China is already facing the heat of Covid and the real estate bubble, China would plan to take Taiwan as quickly as possible and with as little damage as possible so the safest way to get Taiwan would be to intimidate them so much that they by default surrender without any bloodshed.
• Chinese navy and submarines would encircle these islands and islets hundreds of sand dredgers fishing boats and Chinese paramilitary ships would move in to surround them and the Chinese fighter jets would begin round-the-clock patrols over the Taiwanese strait.

(C) Customs quarantine strategy for mainland Taiwan

• After the above steps, China will enforce customs, maritime and airspace jurisdictions over Taiwan. The move overrides Taiwan’s existing control of its airspace and maritime boundary.
• China would ban all shipping from entering Taiwan’s territorial waters without its permission. The Chinese authorities inform all airlines and shipping companies that they must have Beijing’s official approval to enter or leave Taiwan’s airspace or ports. They also insist that all flights, ships and ferries submit passenger manifestos and customs declarations to Chinese authorities.
• A vast fleet of PLA Navy, coast guard and maritime militia ships deploy around Taiwan to enforce the quarantine, intercepting ships attempting to approach the island without approval from Beijing.
• OUTCOME: With the sudden halt to all imports and exports, Taiwan faces almost immediate shortages of essential supplies, particularly energy. The island is suddenly cut off from the world.

(D) Full blockade of mainland Taiwan

• Here’s where China uses its huge naval fleet to surround Taiwan in such a way that they take complete control over the entire water and airspace around Taiwan so this way neither ships nor planes could go in or come out.
• Warships and strike aircraft would be deployed to make sure that the American and Japanese forces are prevented from approaching Taiwan and now China and Taiwan would launch air and missile strikes on each other.
• With its blockade still in place, China may call for an immediate ceasefire, offers to allow urgently needed supplies to reach Taiwan, and invites negotiations with Washington in a bid to avert a full-scale war.

(E) Attack on Taiwan infrastructure

• Devastating air and missile attack will be launched on the island’s defenses. The aim is to smash Taiwan’s military, demoralize the population and force Taipei to the negotiating table before the United States and its allies can intervene.
• PLA forces launch massive saturation attacks on key military and civilian targets. These include airfields, ports, air-defense radars, communication nodes, military command centers and headquarters, missile batteries, navy bases, major warships, key bridges, communication networks, power stations and grids, government buildings, radio and television stations, data centers and major transport arteries.

(F) Full-fledged invasion

• Without warning, the PLA would launch massive air, missile and cyber-attacks on key military and civilian targets all over Taiwan. At the same time, the PLA attacks U.S. bases in Japan and Guam with air and missile strikes in a bid to paralyze American forces and delay any intervention.
• Within hours a major war will be raging in East Asia.

Options for Taiwan

• Fight back– Taiwan uses its full armed force to defend itself with or without US and allies. But it would be equivalent to suicide as Taiwan’s armed power is minuscule as compared to the Chinese army.
• Surrender– surrender to the Chinese PLA thus saving itself from much destruction and hence leading to the realization of a decade-old dream of China- The unification of Taiwan with mainland China.
• Buy time tactics– to keep China in a loop through diplomatic channels and negotiations till the time US and allies forces reach the Taiwan strait.

Weaknesses of Taiwan

Taiwan has three major weak points:

• Taiwan has a very small army– China has 10 times more ground force, 8 times more naval destroyers and 30 times more submarines. Thus, China is going to outright destroy them all.

• Communication cables in the South China Sea– Taiwan sends and receives 95 percent of the data and voice traffic along with these bundles of cable lines that run through this bay to different parts of the world. So, the Chinese fleet will cut these cables off and will completely disrupt the communication of Taiwan and more importantly the communication of the Taiwanese army.
• Taiwan’s energy supplies- As of 2020, about 98 percent of Taiwan’s energy was imported from foreign countries and this was in the form of coal crude oil and petroleum products and these shipments come from Australia, Qatar Indonesia and Russia.

Possible Outcomes of an invasion

• Chinese control of Taiwan would dramatically reinforce the Communist Party’s prestige at home and eliminate the island as a viable model of a democratic alternative to authoritarian Party rule.
• It would also give China a foothold in the so-called first island chain, the line which runs through the string of islands from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo, which enclose China’s coastal seas.
• For China, success would translate into a commanding strategic position in Asia, undermining the security of Japan and South Korea, and allowing China to project power into the Western Pacific.
• But if China loses the war, it might cause a revolt within CPC for new leadership and anger against President Xi Jinping or the Chinese population may rise against their communist government.
• Severe sanctions by the western countries against China would further cripple its economy, making it difficult for China to regain its diplomatic might and economic status.

Possible outcomes for the US and its Allies

• If the US and its allies successfully counter China, it would be a great power booster for the US camp and the western world.
• The US would be re-established as the only Superpower in the world, with the world order becoming unipolar once again.
• However, if the US and its allies lose the war, it would be marked as the end of its hegemony as the world superpower, loss of power and prestige and would by default establish China’s dominance in the world.

Implications for India and the world

• Economic ties will be hit– Arguably more important to New Delhi is the economic component of its engagement with Taiwan. Last year, bilateral trade between India and Taiwan was estimated to be worth over $7 billion. Taiwanese firms have also invested over $2.3 billion in India. The two countries are even talking about a free trade deal and working out ways to create a semiconductor manufacturing hub in India. A war would nullify all these aspects.
• World economy to suffer badly– Experts have predicted that any escalation in the Taiwan Strait will have an impact on trade and security throughout the entire Indo-Pacific region. Also, China has been a crucial value-adder to the global supply chain. It would be very difficult for the US to replicate Russia’s sanctioning of the aggressor and resupplying the resistor strategy on China-Taiwan. 
• Semiconductor shortage– Taiwan is a small nation that has placed itself as one of the biggest manufacturers of essential semiconductors and electronic components. A blockade or slowdown of semiconductor chip shipments could be one of the many effects of a conflict between China and Taiwan, which would have an impact on many global industries, including manufacturing and internet communications technology.

Way forward

• Avoiding any escalation- both sides should maintain a restraint from further escalation of tensions keeping diplomatic channels open and actively pursuing back-channel diplomacy.
• Respecting each-others sensitivities– on important unclear matters and taking up the trust-building process.
• More Realistic approach by India– also, New Delhi must begin to deal with Taiwan as a weighty entity in its own right that offers so much to advance India’s prosperity.

Conclusion

• As Taiwan becomes the world’s most dangerous flashpoint, the geopolitical consequences for Asia and the world are real.
• Once a sane man had said,” War is a tricky game, the only way to win it is to not play it at all”. After the war with COVID and then Russia-Ukraine ongoing war, the world cannot afford another war. Thus, a restraint from all sides is thus a sine qua non.

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