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  • India’s role in UN Peacekeeping Missions

    Two BSF personnel recently got martyrdom who were part of the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

    Why in news?

    • A total 175 Indian peacekeepers have so far died while serving with the United Nations.
    • India has lost more peacekeepers than any other UN Member State.

    What is United Nations Peacekeeping?

    • UN Peacekeeping helps countries navigate the difficult path from conflict to peace.
    • UN peacekeepers are often referred to as Blue Berets or Blue Helmets because of their light blue berets or helmets) can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.

    UNPKF in operation

    • Since 1948, UN Peacekeepers have undertaken 71 Field Missions.
    • There are approximately 81,820 personnel serving on 13 peace operations led by UNDPO, in four continents currently.
    • This represents a nine-fold increase since 1999.
    • A total of 119 countries have contributed military and police personnel to UN peacekeeping.
    • Currently, 72,930 of those serving are troops and military observers, and about 8,890 are police personnel.

    India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping

    • India has a long history of service in UN Peacekeeping, having contributed more personnel than any other country.
    • To date, more than 2,53,000 Indians have served in 49 of the 71 UN Peacekeeping missions established around the world since 1948.
    • Currently, there are around 5,500 troops and police from India who have been deployed to UN Peacekeeping missions, the fifth highest amongst troop-contributing countries.
    • India has also provided and continues to provide, eminent Force Commanders for UN Missions.
    • India is the fifth largest troop contributor (TCC) with 5,323 personnel deployed in 8 out of 13 active UN Peacekeeping Missions, of which 166 are police personnel.

    History of India’s contribution

    • India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping began with its participation in the UN operation in Korea in the 1950s.
    • This is where India’s mediatory role in resolving the stalemate over prisoners of war in Korea led to the signing of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
    • India chaired the five-member Neutral Nations Repatriation Commission, while the Indian Custodian Force supervised the process of interviews and repatriation that followed.
    • The UN entrusted the Indian armed forces with subsequent peace missions in the Middle East, Cyprus, and the Congo (since 1971, Zaire).
    • India also served as Chair of the three international commissions for supervision and control for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos established by the 1954 Geneva Accords on Indochina.

    Role of women in Indian Peacekeeping

    • India has been sending women personnel on UN Peacekeeping Missions.
    • In 2007, India became the first country to deploy an all-women contingent to a UN Peacekeeping Mission.
    • The Formed Police Unit in Liberia provided 24-hour guard duty and conducted night patrols in the capital Monrovia, and helped to build the capacity of the Liberian police.
    • These women officers not only played a role in restoring security in the West African nation but also contributed to an increase in the number of women in Liberia’s security sector.

    Medical care as part of India’s Missions

    • In addition to their security role, the members of the Indian Formed Police Unit also organized medical camps for Liberians, many of whom have limited access to health care services.
    • Medical care is among the many services Indian Peacekeepers provide to the communities in which they serve on behalf of the Organization.
    • They also perform specialized tasks such as veterinary support and engineering services.

    India’s views on UN Peacekeeping

    • India is of the view that the international community must grasp the rapid changes that are underway in the nature and role of contemporary peacekeeping operations.
    • The Security Council’s mandates to UN Peacekeeping operations need to be rooted in ground realities, and co-related with the resources provided for the peacekeeping operation.
    • It is critical that troop and police contributing countries should be fully involved at all stages and in all aspects of mission planning.
    • There should be greater financial and human resources for peace-building in post-conflict societies, where UNPKOs have been mandated, according to officials.

     

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  • From freebies to welfare

    Context

    In a recent address, the prime minister shared his anguish on what he called the “revdi” or the freebies culture.

    Populist policies and its impact over the states’ finances

    • What are freebies? N K Singh defined freebies as “something that is given to you without having to pay for them, especially as a way of attracting your support for or interest in something.”
    • A recent report of the RBI on states’ finances highlighted the perilous condition of states’ finances and enhanced debt stress on account of flawed policies.
    •  Nothing undercuts more irresponsibly India’s abiding international and national commitments than the perils of this reckless populism.

    Factors that need to be considered in devising welfare policies

    1] Quest for sustainable development

    • The initiatives undertaken at COP21 in Paris, the International Solar Alliance and subsequently at the COP26 in Glasgow represent India’s national consensus to forge a path of growth geared towards intergenerational equity and to exponentially increase development.
    • Our ability to adhere to this commitment depends on two other commitments.
    • 1] An increase in the percentage of renewable energy in our energy consumption.
    • While subsidies are being promised in one form or the other by way of free electricity, the deteriorating health of state distribution companies seriously undercuts their financial viability.
    • Lowering the price for some consumers, offset through overcharging industrial and commercial contracts, reduces competitiveness, ushers slower growth both in incomes and employment.
    • 2] The inability of discoms to actively encourage solar power is stymied by their financial condition and the inability to evolve tariff structures.
    •  Regulatory capture, a fixation on unrealistic tariffs and cross-subsidy in energy utilisation prevent a credible coal plan, which is central to our energy planning.

    2] Challenges in providing basic facilities

    • The government seeks to address the challenge of inequity by ensuring access to a wide range of basic facilities.
    • These include banking, electricity, housing, insurance, water and clean cooking fuel, to mention a few.
    • Removing this inequity to access helps boost the productivity of our population.

    3] Issue of access

    • Benefits under various welfare schemes such as PM Awas Yojana, Swachh Bharat Mission and Jal Jeevan Mission have eliminated the biggest barrier for citizens — the exorbitant upfront cost of access.
    • Moreover, they are leading to irreversible empowerment and self-reliance.
    • For instance, a house built under the PM Awas Yojana is a lifelong asset for the beneficiary household that cannot be taken back by any government.

    4] Use of technology in direct benefit transfer

    • Identification of beneficiaries through the SECC and prioritisation based on deprivation criteria has enabled the government to assist those who need it the most.
    • Governments that end up taking the shortcut of universal subsidies or freebies often end up ignoring the poor and transferring public resources to the affluent.

    5] Expenditure prioritisation

    • The next issue that needs to be considered is of expenditure prioritisation being distorted away from growth-enhancing items, leading to intergenerational inequity.
    • Investors, both domestic and foreign, and credit rating agencies look to macro stability in terms of sustainable levels of debt and fiscal deficit.
    • After years of fiscal profligacy, we returned to the path of fiscal rectitude in 2014.
    • The last time such an effort was made was by enacting the first FRBM Act on August 26, 2003.

    6] Impact on future of manufacturing and employment

    • The next factor that need to be considered is the debilitating effect of freebies on the future of manufacturing and employment.
    • Freebies lower the quality and competitiveness of the manufacturing sector by detracting from efficient and competitive infrastructure.
    • They stymie growth and, therefore, gainful employment because there is no substitute for growth if we wish to increase employment.

    Conclusion

    The poor state finance position should serve as a timely reminder to those promising fiscally imprudent and unsustainable subsidies.

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  • [Sansad TV] Perspective: CAATSA Waiver for India

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    Context

    • The US House of Representatives has passed by voice vote a legislative amendment that approves waiver to India against the punitive CAATSA sanctions for its purchase of the S-400 missile defence system from Russia.
    • The amendment was authored and introduced by Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna.
    • It had urged the Biden administration to use its authority to provide India with a CAATSA waiver to in the face of aggression from China.

    What is the CAATSA?

    • CAATSA is a law that came into effect in the US in 2017, meant to punish countries having deep engagements with Russia, North Korea, and Iran using economic sanctions.
    • It said countries having a “significant transaction” with Russian intelligence and military agents will be subject to at least five kinds of sanctions.
    • Ordinary transactions will not invite sanctions, and the decision of who has sanctions imposed on them comes down to the interpretation of “significant transaction”.
    • This is one of the various waivers or exemptions mentioned, such as the transaction not affecting US strategic interests, not endangering the alliances it is a part of, etc.

    Why did the US enact a law like CAATSA?

    • The US flagged issues of Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 Presidential elections, and its role in the Syrian war as some of the reasons for punishing engagement with it.
    • EU countries that had even more significant ties with Russia for oil and gas supply before the Ukraine-Russia conflict in 2022, had also criticised CAATSA.

    Countries facing sanctions

    • The US has placed sanctions on China and Turkey for purchase of the S-400.
    • The sanctions included denial of export licences, ban on foreign exchange transactions, blocking of all property and interests in property within the US jurisdiction and a visa ban.

    Reasons behind exemption to India

    • CAATSA impacts Indo-US ties, and dents the image of the US as a reliable partner at a time when it is projecting India as a key player in its Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • US administration for countries like India has favoured relief, citing the “strategic opportunity” that India presents, and also the opportunity “to trade in arms with India”.
    • Indeed, the US defence industry sees India as a major market, over the last decade, deals with India have grown from near zero to $15 billion.
    • Both in term of the number and value of contracts, the US is way ahead of other major suppliers.
    • The CAATSA exemption also underlines the growing defence and security cooperation that has seen India sign a logistics pact with the US.
    • Also US designated India as a Major Defence Partner, and both countries coming together on Indo-Pacific strategy, the newly resurrected Quad.
    • It also marks an acceptance by the US of the point of principle that as a sovereign country, India cannot be dictated on its strategic interests by a third country.

    Benefits to US by this waiver

    • This connection is centred on an eventual ‘payback’ to the US for lifting the spectre of CAATSA, looming over New Delhi since 2018.
    • India is procuring some 140-odd F/A-18s for both the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force for around $30-35 billion.
    • Prospective F/A-18 sales would significantly boost the US economy, buffeted by unemployment and inflation running at 8.6%, its highest since 1981.
    • The waiver amendment also urged the US to do more to support India’s decision to reduce its reliance on Russian-made weapons.

    Why did India sign the S-400 deal?

    • Security paradigm: S-400 is very important for India’s national security considerations due to the threats from China, Pakistan and now Afghanistan.
    • Air defence capability: The system will also offset the air defence capability gaps due to the IAF’s dwindling fighter squadron strength.
    • Russian legacy: Integrating the S-400 will be much easier as India has a large number of legacy Russian air defence systems.
    • Strategic autonomy: For both political as well as operational reasons, the deal is at a point of no return.

    Way forward

    • The revision in bilateral ties is consistent with the prevailing strategic tone of bilateral ties.
    • Through associations like Quad and, more recently, I2U2, strategic linkages have also been strengthened.
    • India’s strategic interests require a shift away from Russians who are increasingly leaning over China.
    • Following its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s reliance on China has grown dramatically, and this position is considered unlikely to change in the near future.

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  • Need for overhaul of India’s economic performance measurement framework

    Context

    It is then apparent that GDP growth matters to the average Indian only if it can generate good quality jobs and incomes for them.

    Background

    • Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets, who conceived of GDP as a measure of economic performance, never intended it to be the single-minded economic pursuit for a nation that it has now become, and warned repeatedly that it is not a measure of societal well-being.
    • Irrefutably, GDP is an elegant and simple metric that is a good indicator of economic progress which can be compared across nations.
    • But a compulsive chase for GDP growth at all costs can be counter-productive, since it is not a holistic but a misleading measure.
    • The excessive obsession over GDP growth by policymakers and politicians can be unhealthy and dangerous in a democracy.
    • If growth in GDP does not translate into equivalent economic prosperity for the average person, then in a one person-one vote democracy, exuberance over high GDP growth can backfire and trigger a backlash among the general public.
    • Global phenomenon: Sri Lanka’s mass uprising and people’s revolution can partly be explained through this prism of the structural break between headline GDP growth and economic prosperity for the people.
    • The U.S. today produces fewer new jobs for every percentage point of GDP growth than it did in the 1990s.
    • China produces one-third the number of new jobs today than it did in the 1990s for every percentage of its GDP growth.

    Employment intensity of economic growth

    • Data of ‘employment in public and organised private sectors’ published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that in the decade between 1980 and 1990, every one percentage point of GDP growth (nominal) generated roughly two lakh new jobs in the formal sector.
    • In the subsequent decade from 1990 to 2000, every one percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly one lakh new formal sector jobs, half of the previous decade.
    • In the next decade between 2000 and 2010, one percentage point of GDP growth generated only 52,000 new jobs.
    • The RBI stopped publishing this data from 2011-12.
    • In essence, one percentage of GDP growth today yields less than one-fourth the number of good quality jobs that it did in the 1980s.
    • It is amply clear that the correlation between formal sector jobs and GDP growth has weakened considerably.

    Implications of decline in GDP growth’s contribution to job creation

    • Irrelevant as a political measure: GDP growth may be an important economic measure, but it is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a political measure, since it impacts only a select few and not the vast majority.
    • Indicates changed nature of economic development: This divorce of GDP growth and jobs is both a reflection of the changed nature of contemporary economic development with emphasis on capital-driven efficiency at the cost of labour and GDP being an inadequate measure.
    • Political backlash: The perils of the obsession over GDP growth will be felt by politicians who have to answer voters on lack of jobs and incomes despite robust headline growth.
    • Voter disenchantment over the economy not working for them is already rife in many democracies across the world that have catalysed agitations and social disharmony.
    • Electoral outcomes in favour of extreme positions in mature democracies such as the U.S., the U.K., France and Germany in the last decade may partly be a reflection of voters’ sense of deception over economic gains.

    Way forward

    • It is time for India’s political leaders to not be drawn into argument over GDP growth every quarter and instead clamour for an overhaul of India’s economic performance measurement framework to reflect what truly matters to the common person.

    Conclusion

    GDP growth has turned into a misleading and dangerous indicator that portrays false economic promises, betrays people’s aspirations and hides deeper social problems.

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  • Recent Supreme Court judgment on IBC may weaken insolvency regime

    Context

    In the recent judgement the Supreme Court held that the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) cannot admit an insolvency application filed by a financial creditor merely because a financial debt exists and the corporate debtor has defaulted in its repayment.

    Why the point of trigger is important in insolvency law

    • A critical element for any corporate insolvency law is the point of trigger.
    • The law must clearly provide the grounds on which an insolvency application against a corporate debtor should be admitted.
    • If there is any confusion at this stage, precious time could be wasted in litigation.
    • That would cause value destruction of the distressed business.
    • On the other hand, if the law is clear and litigation can be minimised, the distressed business could be resolved faster.
    • Its value could be preserved.
    • And all stakeholders collectively would benefit.
    • Evidently, objective legal criteria for admission are critical for an effective corporate insolvency law.

    Determining insolvency and implications of the SC ruling

    • The balance-sheet test is one method for determining insolvency at the point of trigger.
    • This test, however, is vulnerable to the quality of accounting standards.
    • That’s why the Bankruptcy Law Reforms Committee did not favour this test in the Indian context.
    • Instead, it recommended that a filing creditor must only provide a record of the liability (debt), and evidence of default on payments by the corporate debtor.
    • This twin-test was expected to provide a clear and objective trigger for insolvency resolution. 
    • The Supreme Court’s latest ruling is likely to radically alter these expectations.

    Implications of the Supreme Court ruling

    • Resisting the admission by debtor: Now due to the Supreme Court ruling, even if the NCLT is satisfied that a financial debt exists and that the corporate debtor has defaulted, it may not admit the case for resolution if the corporate debtor resists admission on any other grounds.
    • Corporate debtors are likely to use this precedent to the fullest to resist admission into IBC.
    • Risk of value destruction due to delay: The likely outcome would be more litigation and delay at the admission stage, enhancing the risks of value destruction in the underlying distressed business.

    Conclusion

    In all fairness, the Supreme Court has been extremely pragmatic in its interpretation and application of the IBC. Even in the recent ruling, the court has rightly cautioned that the NCLT should not exercise its discretionary power in an arbitrary or capricious manner. Yet, this decision may have opened a Pandora’s box. Policymakers would be well-advised to take note before history starts repeating itself.

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  • A path to global connectivity

    Context

    As terrestrial 5G mobile networks are being rolled out across countries, there is a renewed interest in integrating Non-Terrestrial Networks.

    SatNets for 5G

    • Satellites and terrestrial networks have always been considered two independent ecosystems, and their standardisation efforts have proceeded independent of each other.
    • The primary non-terrestrial network that is being considered is the low latency Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks (SatNets), as a complement to terrestrial networks.
    • Towards this, Starlink, operated by the Elon Musk-owned SpaceX, and OneWeb, promoted by Bharti Global, have launched about 2,500 and 648 LEO satellites respectively at an altitude of about 1,200 km with the objective of promoting global broadband connectivity.
    • There are other players such as Reliance Jio in a joint venture with Luxembourg-based SES and Amazon’s Project Kuiper.

    Benefits of using SatNets

    • 1] Service continuity in emergency: service continuity to provide seamless transition between terrestrial networks and SatNets in case of public safety, disaster management and emergency situations;
    • 2] Providing service in remote area: Service ubiquity to provide 5G services in unserved and underserved areas of the world, thereby bridging the digital divide;
    • 3] Scalability: Service scalability that utilises the unique capabilities of SatNets in multicasting and broadcasting similar content over a large geographical area.
    • 4] Service to in-motion user: The LEO SatNets can provide service not only to stationary but also to in-motion users.
    • 5] Low latency over long distance: Wireless communications through LEO satellites over long distances is proven to be 1.47 times faster than communication over the same distance through terrestrial optic fibre. It is this advantage along with global coverage that provide a strong use case for LEO SatNets to complement terrestrial optic fibre networks.
    • SatNet in standardisation: In view of the above advantages, standard-setting organisations such as the Third Generation Partnership project (3GPP), comprising telcos and equipment manufacturers around the world, started integrating SatNets in the standardisation process.

    Measures by the government

    • Realising the advantages, the Government, in its National Digital Communications Policy 2018, has indicated the development of an ecosystem for local manufacturing of satellite communication systems and promoting participation of private players for the strengthening of satellite communication infrastructure in the country.
    • Accordingly, the New Space India Limited (NSIL), a public sector enterprise, was established in 2019 to re-orient space activities from a ‘supply driven’ model to a ‘demand driven’ model, thereby ensuring optimum utilisation of the space assets.
    • The Department of Space also established in 2020 a new regulatory body named the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe).
    • IN-SPACe is intended to provide a level playing field for private companies to use Indian space infrastructure.

    Issues and challenges

    • Allocation of frequency: Issues will involve addressing issues around frequencies to be allocated for satellite broadband, the methodology of allocation, the relatively higher cost of consumer equipment and the placement and interconnections of SatNets with terrestrial public landline/ mobile networks at the ground stations
    • Cost: The other major challenge in LEO SatNets is the cost of user terminal and access charges to the end users.
    • A recent research analysing both Starlink and OneWeb concludes that the standalone LEO SatNets have a distinct cost advantage only if the density is less than 0.1 person per square km compared to terrestrial broadband networks.
    • Hence it is to the advantage of LEO SatNet providers to integrate their networks with terrestrial 5G networks to improve the cost economies.

    Conclusion

    All these, along with the proposed revisions to the Satellite Communications Policy of the Government, will provide the required fillip to LEO SatNets to become an integral part of the communication infrastructure of the country.

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    Back2Basics: LEO satellites

    • LEO satellites orbit between 2,000 and 200 kilometers above the earth. LEO satellites are commonly used for communications, military reconnaissance, spying and other imaging applications.
    • A low earth orbit (LEO) satellite is an object, generally a piece of electronic equipment, that circles around the earth at lower altitudes than geosynchronous satellites.
    • Satellites made for communications benefit from the lower signal propagation delay to LEO.
    • This lower propagation delay results in less latency.
    • Being closer to the earth has an obvious benefit for many types of earth observational satellites by resolving smaller subjects with greater detail.

  • 27th July 2022| Daily Answer Writing Enhancement(AWE)

    Topics for Today’s questions:

    GS-1          Urbanization, their problems and their remedies.

    GS-2         Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

    GS-3        Indian Economy, Inclusive Growth & Issues

    GS-4        Contributions of moral thinkers and philosophers from India and the world.

    Question 1)

     

    Q.1 Indian cities are not only mimicking the social and cultural structures of inequality and exclusion found in rural areas but are also creating fault lines for future conflicts. Discuss. (15 Marks)

     

    Question 2)

    Q.2 How China’s military modernisation, nuclear expansion and strategic assertiveness underscores the need for new debate about India’s nuclear weapons policies? Suggest the way forward. (10 Marks)

    Question 3)

    Q.3 Why public investment is important for India’s economic growth? Analyse the change in investment distribution in the past decade in India. (10 Marks)

    Question 4)  

    Q.4 The ideals of ‘Dhamma’ by Ashoka present key learnings on public morality. Discuss. Also, state their relevance for public servants. (10 Marks)

     

    HOW TO ATTEMPT ANSWERS IN DAILY ANSWER WRITING ENHANCEMENT(AWE)?

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    7. If you are writing answers late, for example, 11th February is uploaded on 13th February , then these answers will be evaluated as per the mentor’s schedule.

    8. We encourage you to write answers on the same day. However, if you are uploading an answer late then tag the mentor like @Staff so that the mentor is notified about your answer.

    *In case your answer is not reviewed, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*. 

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  • IMF flags Recession risk

    Surging inflation and sharp slowdowns in the United States and China prompted the IMF to cut its outlook for the global economy this year and next, while warning that the situation could get much worse.

    By one common definition, the major global economies are on the cusp of a recession.

    What is Recession?

    • A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years.
    • Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative GDP, rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.
    • Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy.

    What causes Recessions?

    These phenomena are some of the main drivers of a recession:

    • A sudden economic shock: An economic shock is a surprise problem that creates serious financial damage. The coronavirus outbreak, which shut down economies worldwide, is a more recent example of a sudden economic shock.
    • Excessive debt: When individuals or businesses take on too much debt, the cost of servicing the debt can grow to the point where they can’t pay their bills. Growing debt defaults and bankruptcies then capsize the economy.
    • Asset bubbles: When investing decisions are driven by emotion, bad economic outcomes aren’t far behind. Investors can become too optimistic during a strong economy.
    • Too much inflation: Inflation is the steady, upward trend in prices over time. Inflation isn’t a bad thing per se, but excessive inflation is a dangerous phenomenon. Central banks control inflation by raising interest rates, and higher interest rates depress economic activity.
    • Too much deflation: While runaway inflation can create a recession, deflation can be even worse. Deflation is when prices decline over time, which causes wages to contract, which further depresses prices. When a deflationary feedback loop gets out of hand, people and business stop spending, which undermines the economy.
    • Technological change: New inventions increase productivity and help the economy over the long term, but there can be short-term periods of adjustment to technological breakthroughs. In the 19th century, there were waves of labour-saving technological improvements.

    What’s the difference between Recession and Depression?

    • Recessions and depressions have similar causes, but the overall impact of a depression is much, much worse.
    • There are greater job losses, higher unemployment and steeper declines in GDP.
    • Most of all, a depression lasts longer—years, not months—and it takes more time for the economy to recover.
    • Economists do not have a set definition or fixed measurements to show what counts as a depression. Suffice to say, all the impacts of a depression are deeper and last longer.
    • In the past century, the US has faced just one depression: The Great Depression.

    The Great Depression

    • The Great Depression started in 1929 and lasted through 1933, although the economy didn’t really recover until World War II, nearly a decade later.
    • During the Great Depression, unemployment rose to 25% and the GDP fell by 30%.
    • It was the most unprecedented economic collapse in modern US history.
    • By way of comparison, the Great Recession was the worst recession since the Great Depression.
    • During the Great Recession, unemployment peaked around 10% and the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, about a year and a half.
    • Some economists fear that the coronavirus recession could morph into a depression, depending how long it lasts.

    How long do recessions last?

    • Gulf War Recession (July 1990 to March 1991): At the start of the 1990s, the U.S. went through a short, eight-month recession, partly caused by spiking oil prices during the First Gulf War.
    • The Great Recession (2008-2009): As mentioned, the Great Recession was caused in part by a bubble in the real estate market.
    • Covid-19 Recession: The most recent recession began in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest US recession in history.

    Can we predict a recession?

    Given that economic forecasting is uncertain, predicting future recessions is far from easy. However, the following warning signs can give you more time to figure out how to prepare for a recession before it happens:

    • An inverted yield curve: The yield curve is a graph that plots the market value—or the yield—of a range. When long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, it shows that investors are worried about a recession. This phenomenon is known as a yield curve inversion, and it has predicted past recessions.
    • Declines in consumer confidence: Consumer spending is the main driver of the US economy. If surveys show a sustained drop in consumer confidence, it could be a sign of impending trouble for the economy.
    • Drop in the Leading Economic Index (LEI): Published monthly by the Conference Board, the LEI strives to predict future economic trends. It looks at factors like applications for unemployment insurance, new orders for manufacturing and stock market performance.
    • Sudden stock market declines: A large, sudden decline in stock markets could be a sign of a recession coming on, since investors sell off parts and sometimes all of their holdings in anticipation of an economic slowdown.
    • Rising unemployment: It goes without saying that if people are losing their jobs, it’s a bad sign for the economy.

    How does a recession affect individuals?

    • We may lose your job during a recession, as unemployment levels rise. It becomes much harder to find a job replacement since more people are out of work.
    • People who keep their jobs may see cuts to pay and benefits, and struggle to negotiate future pay raises.
    • Investments in stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets can lose money in a recession, reducing your savings and upsetting your plans for retirement.
    • Business owners make fewer sales during a recession, and may even be forced into bankruptcy.
    • With more people unable to pay their bills during a recession, lenders tighten standards for mortgages, car loans, and other types of financing.

     

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  • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    India has severely criticized the reported move by both China and Pakistan for third-party participation in some projects on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

    • The CPEC, one of the most ambitious components of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was announced to great fanfare in 2015.
    • CPEC is a collection of infrastructure projects that are under construction throughout Pakistan beginning in 2013.
    • Originally valued at $47 billion, the value of CPEC projects is worth $62 billion as of 2020.
    • It is intended to rapidly upgrade Pakistan’s required infrastructure and strengthen its economy by the construction of modern transportation networks, numerous energy projects, and SEZs.
    • On 13 November 2016, CPEC became partly operational when Chinese cargo was transported overland to Gwadar Port for onward maritime shipment to Africa and West Asia.

    Why CPEC?

    • CPEC has consistently been held up as a “gamechanger” for Pakistan’s economy.
    • But the road to completion has proved long and winding. Reports indicate that the pace of CPEC projects has been slowing down in Pakistan in recent years.
    • At the same time, China is the only country that is heavily investing in Pakistan.

    Why in news?

    • The lack of progress has led to numerous reports about CPEC being at a near standstill in the country.
    • Gwadar, despite being the epicenter of multibillion-dollar projects, lacks basic necessities like reliable access to water and electricity, let alone other facilities.
    • The baloch freedom movement is another impediment to the stalled project.
    • There have been sporadic attacks in Gwadar and elsewhere in the province and the country to discourage Chinese investments in the province.
    • China is also seeking to deploy its Army in the CPEC projects, to which Pakistan has contested.

    India’s reservation

    • The GoI, which shares tense relations with Pakistan, objects to the CPEC project as upgrade works to the Karakoram Highway are taking place in Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • This is the territory illicitly occupied by Pakistan in 1947-48.
    • During the visit of Indian PM Modi to China in 2015, the Indian FM, Sushma Swaraj reportedly told the Chinese.
    • India did not object to the Chinese construction of the Karakoram Highway which was built between 1959 and 1979.

     

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  • Russia to leave International Space Station (ISS)

    Russia will pull out of the International Space Station (ISS) after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost.

    Why in news?

    • Russia will end a symbolic two-decade orbital partnership between Moscow and the west.

    International Space Station (ISS)

    • The ISS was launched in 1998 as part of joint efforts by the U.S., Russia, Japan, Canada and Europe.
    • The idea of a space station originated in the 1984 State of the Union address by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
    • The space station was assembled over many years, and it operates in low-earth orbit.
    • Since its inception, it has served as a laboratory suspended in space and has aided multiple scientific and technological developments.
    • The ISS was originally built to operate for 15 years.

    Why was ISS launched?

    • A space station permits quantum leaps in research in science, communications, and in metals and lifesaving medicines which could be manufactured only in space.
    • ISS has consistently maintained human presence for the past 21 years, providing astronauts with sophisticated technologies for scientific research.

    What is Russia’s role in maintaining the ISS?

    • The ISS is built with the cooperation of scientists from five international space agencies — NASA of the U.S., Roscosmos of Russia, JAXA of Japan, Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency.
    • Each agency has a role to play and a share in the upkeep of the ISS.
    • Both in terms of expense and effort, it is not a feat that a single country can support.
    • Russia’s part in the collaboration is the module responsible for making course corrections to the orbit of the ISS.
    • They also ferry astronauts to the ISS from the Earth and back.
    • Until SpaceX’s dragon spacecraft came into the picture the Russian spacecraft was the only way of reaching the ISS and returning.

     

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