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  • Explained: First Advance Estimates (FAE)

    The First Advance Estimates (FAE) were recently released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

    The First Advance Estimates and their significance

    • The First Advance Estimates (FAE) extrapolate a variety of data, such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the financial performance of listed companies, first advance estimates of crop production etc., for the first 7 to 8 months to arrive at the annual figure.
    • The significance of the FAE is that this is the final bit of official data before the government presents its next Budget.
    • The sector-wise Estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like-
    1. IIP of first 7 months of the financial year,
    2. financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2019
    3. 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production,
    4. accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight earnings of Railways, Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, Cargo etc., available for first 8 months of the financial year”.

    Estimates for 2018-19

    • It estimated India’s GDP will grow by just 5 per cent in the current financial year (2019-20). Last financial year, 2018-19, the Indian economy grew at 6.8 per cent.
    • The gross value added (GVA), which maps the economic activity from the income side as against the GDP which maps it from the expenditure side, is expected to grow by 4.9 per cent in 2019-20 as against 6.6 per cent in 2018-19.

    Drivers of the GDP

    There are four main drivers of the GDP:

    • One, the private consumption expenditure – that is the expenditure that you and I make in our personal capacity. This category has grown by just 5.7 per cent in 2019-20 while it grew by 8 per cent last financial year.
    • The second driver is the expenditure made by the Government. This grew by 10.5 per cent, which is higher than the rate of growth (9.2 per cent) in the last financial year.
    • But the most disappointing number is the deceleration in business investments in the economy.
    • This driver, which is the key to sustainable long-term growth, grew by less than 1 per cent; last financial year it grew by 10 per cent.
    • This shows that while the private consumption demand is tepid, businesses have completely turned off the tap on new investments despite the government making a once-in-generation cut in corporate taxes.

    Performance in terms of GVA

    • The GVA data provides a detailed picture. Given that the overall GVA has decelerated sharply, almost all sectors have witnessed slower growth in economic activity.
    • Only “Public Administration, Defence and Other Services,“ which essentially measures how the government did, grew by 9.1 per cent.
    • All other sectors saw a GVA growth that was slower than the average growth in the last financial year.
    • The worst performing sectors are ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’ and ‘Construction’, which are expected to see a GVA growth of 2.8 per cent, 1.5 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.

    Back2Basics

    Real vs. Nominal GDP

    • GDP is the total market value of all goods and services produced in the economy during a particular year, inclusive of all taxes and subsidies on products.
    • The market value taken at current prices is the nominal GDP.
    • The value taken at constant prices — that is prices for all products taken at an unchanged base year (2011) — is the real GDP.
    • In simple terms, real GDP is nominal GDP stripped of inflation.
    • Real GDP growth thus measures how much the production of goods and services in the economy has increased in actual physical terms during a year.
    • Nominal GDP growth, on the other hand, is a measure of the increase in incomes resulting from rise in both production and prices.

  • Government Owned Contractor Operated (GOCO) Model 

    Indian Army has initiated the process of identifying potential industry partners to implement the Government Owned Contractor Operated (GOCO) model for its base workshops and ordnance depots intended to improve operational efficiency.

    GOCO model

    • The GOCO model was one of the recommendations of the Lt. Gen. DB Shekatkar (Retd.) committee to enhance combat capability and re-balancing defence expenditure.
    • In GOCO model, the assets owned by government will be operated by the private industries.
    • Under the GOCO model, the private companies need not make investments on land, machinery and other support systems.
    • The missions are set by government and the private sectors are given full independence in implementing the missions using their best practices.
    • The main advantage of the model is that the targets are achieved in lesser time frame. Also, it will boost competitiveness among the private entities paving way to newer technologies.

    Who will be eligible under the mode?

    • The service provider should be an Indian registered company with at least 10 years of working experience in related domains and have an average annual turnover of ₹50 crore for each of the last three financial years.

  • Operation Twist

    Reserve Bank of India Governor has informed that the market’s reaction to Operation Twist was on expected lines.

    Operation Twist

    • The simultaneous buy-sell of government bonds, known as Operation Twist, was conducted to bring down long-term interest rate while allowing short term rates to inch up.
    • The move was aimed at addressing liquidity, which is assymetric — abundant at the shorter end but not on the longer end. The move will help in monetary transmission.
    • The central bank has so far carried out three rounds of simultaneous bond buy-and-sell via open market operations.

    For more reading, navigate to the page:

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/operation-twist/

  • UAE’s new 5-year visa scheme

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a five-year multiple-entry visa scheme for all nationalities, in a move that is geared towards promoting tourism in the country.

    What is UAE’s new visa scheme?

    • According to the Dubai-based Gulf News, prior to this, tourists could get single or multiple-entry visas for a duration of 30 or 90 days.
    • In the new five-year multiple-entry system, visa holders may be allowed to stay for six months at a stretch.
    • The details of the scheme are yet to be announced. The country’s Federal Authority for Identity and Citizenship will be implementing the decision.
    • Travellers from Africa, some South American countries, Arab states outside the Gulf, and European states from outside the European Union and the former Soviet Union previously needed visas.
    • The UAE currently receives more 2.1 crore tourists annually, and has recently increased its pace of rolling out policies to boost its trade and tourism sectors.

    Other reforms

    • In July 2019, the UAE allowed women employed in the country to sponsor work permits for their husbands, fathers, and adult children, and reduced the fees for obtaining work permits by 50 per cent to 94 per cent for 145 services and transactions.
    • In the same month, the Emirate of Dubai said it would accept the Indian rupee (INR) for transactions at duty-free stores.

  • [pib] Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE)

    Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) has issued an Avalanche warning to Leh in Ladakh region.

    SASE

    • SASE is a laboratory of the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO)
    • It is located near Manali, Himachal Pradesh.
    • Its primary function is research in the field of snow and avalanches to provide avalanche control measures and forecasting support to Armed forces.
    • Leh is important as it has two passes namely Chang La and Khardung La with world’s highest motorable roads through them with several avalanche-prone zones.
    • Its utility is also meant for the soldiers in the worlds highest battle filed Siachen, in the region.

  • Species in news: Great Indian Bustard

    Since June last year, nine GIB eggs collected from the Desert National Park in Jaisalmer where a conservation centre has been set up, have hatched, and the chicks are reported to be doing well.

    Great Indian Bustard

    • The Great Indian Bustard, one of the heaviest flying birds, can weigh up to 15 kg and grow up to one metre in height.
    • It is considered the flagship grassland species, representing the health of the grassland ecology.
    • For long, conservationists have been demanding to secure this population, warning that the bird might get extinct in the coming decades.
    • It would become the first mega species to disappear from India after Cheetah in recent times.
    • Till 1980s, about 1,500-2,000 Great Indian Bustards were spread throughout the western half of India, spanning eleven states.
    • However, with rampant hunting and declining grasslands, their population dwindled.
    • In July 2011, the bird was categorised as “critically endangered” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

    Various threats to GIBs

    I. General threats to GIB

    • Habitat loss & fragmentation, change of land use pattern, desertification, ill-thought plantation of exotic & invasive species in grassland ecosystems are some of the generic causes.
    • Neglect of state institutions due to classification of ‘grasslands’ as ‘wastelands’, conversion of grasslands to agriculture lands due to increasing irrigation potential and decline of nature/GIB-friendly agrarian practices, are all commonly and correctly blamed for the steady decline in India’s GIB population.

    II. Role of Noise Pollution

    • Noise pollution affects the mating and courtship practices of the GIB.
    • The male GIB inflates his ‘gular’ pouch (near the neck) which almost touches the ground, in order to produce a large booming sound which reverberates across the grassland.
    • The male GIB does this to attract GIB females and to inform them of his exact location in the vast expanse of the grassland.
    • Thus, the sound of the male GIB should be loud enough to transcend the walls of the sanctuary and be audible to female GIBs in the fields nearby.
    • The noise generated by human activities, whether be it by vehicles, tractors, music during processions, firecrackers, may interfere with the GIB’s mating call and drown it out.

    III. Other threats

    • The rate of reproduction amongst GIBs is very low; the female GIB lays only one egg per year.
    • This solitary egg is under threat from natural predators of the grasslands such as jackals, hyenas or foxes or invasive species such as crows or feral dogs.
    • In such a scenario, every opportunity the GIBs lose to mate pushes the species closer to extinction.

    Protection Measures

    • Birdlife International uplisted this species from Endangered to Critically Endangered (2011)
    • Protection under CITES Appendix I
    • Protection under Schedule I Wildlife (Protection) Amendment Act 2002
    • Project Great Indian Bustard (Rajasthan):  aims at identifying and fencing off bustard breeding grounds in existing protected areas as well as provide secure breeding enclosures in areas outside protected areas.

  • 8th January 2020| Daily Answer Writing Enhancement

    The topics covered in the upcoming AWE on 9th January are:

    Q.1) Social empowerment, communalism, regionalism & secularism.

    Q.4) Case Studies

     

    Question 1)

    “The Indian urban and rural life is viewed as the two faces of the same coin. They are mutually interdependent and both have a greater impact of globalization.” In the light of the given statement, compare and contrast implications of Globalization on rural and urban society in India and examine how they are different from each other. (15 Marks)

    Question 2)

    The recurring incidents of a large number of children’s death points toward the short-comings in the public health-care system of the country. Critically examine the statement and give your views to improve the system. (15 Marks)

    Question 3)

    As a part of its proposed manned space mission, India will launch the Indian Data Relay Satellite System (IDRSS). What is Data Relay Satellite System? Discuss its intended benefits. (15 Marks)

    Question 4)

    Mr X, once a struggling film actor, was accused and later exonerated of rape charges, which the jury found out to be motivated and fake. Not able to cope up with the situation, he changed profession and moved on. Thirty years later, while his closest friends know about the incident, his co-workers do not. One day, out of curiosity, he searches for his name on the internet, and to his surprise, finds that the third entry that comes up is an old report in a local newspaper about the rape charges he faced. Mr X is upset; after all these years, he would like to be able to disclose the event only to whomever he wants. He has heard about the decision of European Court of Justice which allows individuals to submit requests to a search engine to remove certain results from searches on their names, and citing the same, requests the search engine and media outlet to remove the results. Valid arguments can be advanced for making the Right to be Forgotten a fundamental right? What those arguments could be? What limitations, if any, can it be subjected to? Should there be any obligations on the search engines regarding cases, which are no longer relevant, as the one mentioned above? (15 Marks)

    Reviews will be provided in a week. (In the order of submission- First come first serve basis). In case the answer is submitted late the review period may get extended to two weeks.

    *In case your answer is not reviewed in a week, reply to your answer saying *NOT CHECKED*. If Parth Sir’s tag is available then tag him.

    For the philosophy of AWE and payment, check  here: Click2Join

  • Blaze down under

    Context

    In Australia, forest fires, among the worst in the country’s history, have been raging since September and show no signs of abating.

     Unabated fire in Australia

    • The fire, worst in Australia’s history, has been raging since September and shows no signs of abating.
    • At least 24 people lost their lives, 500 million animal have perished, and more than 12bn acres of land has turned to cinders.
    • New South Wales, the country’s worst-affected state, declared an emergency last week in its southeastern region.

    Climate change and the fire

    • Australians have vented their anger at Prime Minister for playing down the blaze’s association with climate change.
    • Bushfires are actually a part of Australia’s ecosystem. Many plants depend on them to cycle nutrients and clear vegetation.
    • Eucalyptus trees in Australia depend on fire to release their seeds.
    • The prolonged blaze this year has coincided with Australia’s harshest summer.
    • Parts of the country recorded their highest recorded temperature in December.
    • Much of Australia is facing a drought that is a result of three consecutive summers with very little precipitation.
    • This, according to climate scientists, is unprecedented.
    • Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s 2018 State of the Climate report had given a hint of the change.
    • It said “Australia’s climate has warmed by just over 1 degree Celsius since 1910, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.’’
    • This has led to more rainfall in northern Australia but created drought-like conditions in the more densely populated southeast.

    Damage caused to the flora and fauna of Australia

    • Australia is home to nearly 250 animal species.
    • Some of them like the koalas and kangaroos are not found elsewhere.
    • The region also has the highest rate of native animals going extinct over the past 200 years.
    • Experts, for example, reckon that more than a quarter of the koala habitat has been consumed by the blaze.
    • The fires have also caused a drop in the bird, rodent and insect populations.

    Conclusion

    • These creatures perished are the building blocks of the ecosystem and the fall in their population is bound to have long-term impacts. In Australia’s bushfires lies a warning about the complex ways in which climate variables interact.

  • [op-ed snap]The U.S. is weakened by Soleimani’s killing

    Context

    Targeted killing of powerful Iranian Major-General could have done more bad than good for the U.S.

    Series of events after the assassination

    • The Iraqi parliament voted to expel the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and deny them access to its airspace, land or water.
    • Pro-Iranian groups could attack across the region where thousands of U.S. troops and official personnel are stationed.
    • Soleimani’s assassination has awakened the deep strain of Iranian patriotism.
    • And Iran is not alone.
    • In Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Soleimani the “glue that held the Resistance Axis together”.
    • The U.S threat of striking “52 Iranian sites” did not win the U.S. any support on the international stage.
    • Even the Europeans, otherwise steadfast with the U.S. in these sorts of adventures, hesitated.
    • Arab League’s Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit expressed concern over the situation and asked for calm.
    • This is the same man who had, only a few weeks ago, accused Iran of sowing chaos in the region.
    • It is likely that China and Russia will table a resolution at the UN that calls for calm as well as criticises the U.S.
    • This will certainly be vetoed by the U.S.

    Desperate and irrational policy

    • Till now the U.S. has not been able to extricate itself from its illegal war against Iraq.
    • That war provided a massive advantage to Iran not only in Iraq but also across the region.
    • This is what terrified two of the U.S.’s allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of whom pressured Washington to increase its threats against Iran.
    • S. create the conditions for the rise of the worst kind of violence in Iraq, and later Syria
    • It also weakened the strategic position of its allies.
    • No attempt by the U.S. to regain its authority has worked.
    • The U.S. policy against Iran and Iraq appear desperate and irrational.

    Conclusion

    • The U.S recklessness has isolated it further and deepened anxieties amongst its increasingly isolated regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  • [Burning Issue] Killing of General Qassem Soleimani and its global implications

     

    Image result for general qassem soleimani upsc

     

    Context

    • Major General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander was killed in a US strike near Baghdad International airport.
    • One of the most popular figures in Iran, Soleimani was known as the most powerful general in the Middle East and has been repeatedly touted as a possible presidential candidate.
    • He was the long-serving head of Iran’s Quds (‘Jerusalem’) Force and has been seen as a deadly adversary by America and its allies.

    Clouds of Wars

     

    • The US and Iran have already been in confrontation for over a week, with each attack leading to a counterattack.
    • On December 27, more than 30 rockets were launched at an Iraqi military base, killing an American contractor.
    • The US responded on December 29 with airstrikes on sites in Iraq and Syria, killing 24 members of an Iranian-backed militia.
    • On December 31 pro-Iranian militia members laid siege to the US Embassy in Baghdad, trapping American diplomats for more than 24 hours. Then came the US drone strike that killed Soleimani and others.

    Who was Soleimani?

    • Born March 11, 1957, Soleimani hails from a village in the mountains of Kerman Province, a region in Iran’s southeast, not far from the borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
    • Revered in his home country and feared on battlefields across the Middle East, Soleimani remains virtually unknown in the West.

    The Quds Force

    • Until his death, Soleimani commanded the Quds Force, which is the Arabic word for Jerusalem and is responsible for carrying out unconventional warfare and intelligence activities.
    • The force is responsible for training, financing and providing assistance to some extremist groups overseas.
    • Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini set up the IRGC in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution ended to protect the Islamic order of the new Iranian government.
    • According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the IRGC has contributed roughly 125,000 men to Iran’s forces and has the capability of undertaking asymmetric warfare and covert operations.
    • This includes the Quds Force that over the years has established links with the Hezbollah of Lebanon, Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Shi’ites in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories.

    What did the Quds Force do?

    • In 1982, Revolutionary Guard officers were sent to Lebanon to help organise Shia militias in the civil war, which eventually led to the creation of Hezbollah.
    • The IRGC including the Quds Force has contributed roughly 125,000 men to Iran’s forces and has the capability of undertaking asymmetric warfare and covert operations.
    • As Quds head, Soleimani briefly worked in cooperation with the US. This was during the US crackdown in Afghanistan following 9/11; Soleimani wanted the Taliban defeated.
    • The cooperation ended in 2002 after President George W Bush branded Iran a nuclear proliferator an exporter of terrorism, and part of an “Axis of Evil”.
    • By 2003, the US was accusing Soleimani of plotting attacks on US soldiers following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which eventually toppled Saddam Hussein.
    • And in 2011, the Treasury Department placed him on a sanctions blacklist.
    • In recent years, Soleimani was believed to be the chief strategist behind Iran’s military ventures and influence in Syria, Iraq and throughout the Middle East.

    In popular support

    • In recent years, Soleimani has gained a huge following on Instagram.
    • His profile rose suddenly when he was pushed forward as the public face of Iran’s intervention in the Syrian conflict from 2013 appearing in battlefield photos, documentaries — and even being featured in a music video and animated film.

    Active Politics

    • Soleimani had become Iran’s most recognizable battlefield commander, ignoring calls to enter politics but becoming as powerful, if not more, than its civilian leadership.
    • Soleimani wielded his regional clout publicly since 2018 when it was revealed that he had direct involvement in top-level talks over the formation of Iraq’s government.
    • He has been in and out of Baghdad ever since, most recently last month as parties seeking to form a new government.

    Why he was killed?

    • The US accused Iranian general is actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.
    • The Pentagon said that Gen Soleimani and his Quds Force “were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more”.
    • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of which Soleimani’s Quds Force was the overseas operations arm and was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO).
    • The regime in Tehran is responsible for the deaths of at least 603 American service members in Iraq since 2003.
    • This according to the US accounts for 17% of all deaths of US personnel in Iraq from 2003 to 2011 and is in addition to the many thousands of Iraqis killed by the IRGC’s proxies.

    According to the US, the Quds Force was involved in:

    1. # 2011: The Quds Force plotted a terrorist attack against the Saudi Ambassador to the US on American soil.
    2. # September 2018: A US federal court found Iran and the IRGC liable for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing which killed 19 Americans.
    3. # Support to terror organisations: Iran funds, equips, and fuels terrorism, violence, and unrest across the Middle East and around the world.
    4. # Support to al-Qaeda: The US alleges that Iran allows al-Qaeda operatives to live in the country, and “move money and fighters to South Asia and Syria”.

    Old enmity

    • The US designated Iran a State Sponsor of Terrorism in January 1984.
    • Ever since, Iran has been subjected to a number of sanctions and restrictions, including restrictions on US foreign assistance, a ban on defence exports and sales, exports controls of dual-use items, and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions.

    Implications of the killing

    • Soleimani’s death has resulted in a dramatic escalation in relations between the US and Iran. The strike has left the Middle East on edge, with possible repercussions beyond the region.
    • President Rouhani said the killing would make Iran more decisive in resisting the US, while the Revolutionary Guards said anti-US forces would exact revenge across the Muslim world.
    • Israel, too, was preparing for Iranian strikes.
    • The killing could have a ripple effect in any number of countries across the Middle East where Iran and the US compete for influence. Oil prices have already jumped by $3 a barrel.

    Possibility of retaliation

    • The killing forced Iran’s hand, and Tehran immediately warned of retaliation. Each strike has led to a more severe retaliation.
    • Also, by clearing the killing of Soleimani, Donald has taken a step his predecessors had avoided.
    • But analysts believe Iran will also be conscious that it is more vulnerable than the US, with all the conflict likely to be in the Middle East itself, including within Iran.
    • That said Iran’s military capabilities are higher than those of others in its neighbourhood.
    • The US might be wary of that. At the same time, analysts believe Iran would require time to put together a working nuclear warhead.
    • That possibility would end if the US chooses to strike Iran’s nuclear installations.

    Can it be war?

    • A lot will depend on how provocative Iran’s inevitable retaliation turns out to be.
    • If these provoke the US into a direct strike on Iran, it can potentially open up the threat of a sustained war.
    • While the possibility of an unintended slide to war is impossible to rule out, fears of World War Three —a phrase that trended overnight on social media are overblown.

    Repercussions on India

     

    Delay of Chabahar

    • The killing is expected to slow down India’s plans to develop the Chabahar port that New Delhi first spoke of turning into a gateway to access landlocked Central Asia and Afghanistan.
    • The 2015 Iran nuclear deal gave India a chance to revisit its plans to develop Chabahar port, also seen as a strategic counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar port developed by China.
    • US sanctions on Iran for its suspect nuclear programme and India’s aim to clinch a civil nuclear deal with the US had delayed plans to develop the Chabahar port in the intervening years since 2003.
    • In May 2016, India, Iran and Afghanistan signed a transport and transit corridor pact as well as a bilateral pact with Tehran to develop the Chabahar port and lay a railway line to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

    Oil prices hike

    • India’s immediate concern is the impact of tensions on international fuel prices that soared 4% last week.
    • Brent crude futures jumped nearly $3 to hit a high of $69.16 a barrel the highest since September while the U.S.
    • With India’s GDP growing at a record low of 4.5% in the September quarter, there are serious concerns that high fuel prices could adversely impact its economic recovery.
    • Though India does not import oil from Iran thanks to a new set of sanctions but any unrest in the volatile region could impact imports from countries like Saudi Arabia.

    Impact on trade

    • Most of the exports take place through the Straits of Hormuz a narrow waterway carrying a fifth of the world’s traded oil which Iranian officials had threatened to block in retaliation for sanctions.
    • India had deployed naval assets in the region to protect its supplies in the wake of mine attacks on oil tankers.

    Remittances flow

    • A secondary worry is that tensions between Iran and the US could impact India’s trade with the region that now stands at $ 78 billion (from Gulf Cooperation Council member countries ie Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman).
    • The West Asia region is the source of some $200 billion in terms of remittances, trade and investments for India.

    Way Forward

    • Overall, India will view the U.S.-Iran developments with deep concern and hope that the situation does not escalate.
    • Beyond its short-term anxiety about India will have a medium-to-long-term concern about further deterioration — namely, that it will result in continued, if not greater, U.S. involvement in the Middle East at the expense of the Indo-Pacific.
    • India wants US focused on the China challenge and it has hoped for years that the U.S. would indeed undertake a rebalance.
    • Any escalation between the U.S. and Iran would put paid to any such shift; moreover, as India saw with the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, it could increase China’s space.

     

     

    References

    https://www.livemint.com/news/india/us-killing-of-soleimani-revives-worries-for-india-11578059448629.html

    https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-qasem-soleimani-the-us-accusations-against-irans-quds-force-6198051/

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/watch-who-was-qasem-soleimani/article30472935.ece

    https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/irans-major-general-qassem-soleimani-killing-why-few-expect-full-blown-war-but-no-one-rules-it-out-donald-trump-6201285/

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