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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Social Media row between India and Maldives over Tourism

    maldives

    Introduction

    • Trigger: PM Modi’s social media posts promoting tourism in Lakshadweep led to a contentious exchange between Maldivian politicians, government officials, and Indian social media users.
    • Context: The posts highlighted Lakshadweep’s beauty but did not mention the Maldives or other island nations.
    • Maldivian Reaction: Following PM Modi’s posts, some Maldivian social media users, including government officials, responded with offensive and derogatory comments targeting Indians and the Prime Minister.

    Escalation of the Issue

    • Sensational Headlines: Local Maldivian news websites sensationalized the issue, falsely claiming that India was campaigning against Maldivian tourism.
    • Government Officials’ Involvement: High-ranking Maldivian officials engaged in the social media dispute, exacerbating the situation.

    Maldivian Social Media Campaign

    • #VisitMaldives Hashtag: In response to India’s promotion of Lakshadweep, Maldivian officials and supporters pushed the ‘#VisitMaldives’ hashtag, featuring local resorts and beaches.
    • Territorial Claims: Some Maldivian users falsely claimed that Lakshadweep is not Indian territory but belongs to the Maldives.

    Accusations Against India

    • Alleged Competition: Maldivian social media users accused India of trying to compete with the Maldives as a tropical vacation destination.
    • Racist Remarks: The posts led to a range of racist comments against Indians and Indian tourists.

    Maldives’ Dependency on Tourism

    • Significant Indian Tourist Numbers: Indians form a large group of tourists visiting the Maldives, with over 200,000 travelers in 2023.
    • Economic Impact: Tourism is crucial for the Maldives, accounting for over 28% of its GDP.

    Indian Response

    • Boycott Calls: Some Indian users called for a boycott of Maldivian hotels and resorts.
    • Highlighting Bilateral Cooperation: Others emphasized India’s assistance to the Maldives and aspects of bilateral cooperation.
    • Celebrity Support: Bollywood celebrities and Indian sportspersons initiated a ‘Visit Lakshadweep’ campaign in response to the controversy.

    Roots of Anti-India Sentiments

    • Historical Campaign: Anti-India sentiments have been present since the ‘India Out’ campaign, which started in 2020 and was promoted by former president Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayyoom.
    • Muizzu Government’s Stance: The current Maldivian government, under President Mohamed Muizzu, has been fulfilling campaign promises, including withdrawing Indian military personnel from the Maldives.

    Criticism Within the Maldives

    • Opposition’s Stance: Not all in the Maldives support the government’s stance, with some politicians and diplomats criticizing the derogatory comments.
    • Lack of Diplomatic Experience: Critics argue that some government officials lack experience and understanding of diplomacy.

    Maldivian Government’s Reaction

    • Official Statement: The Maldives’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement distancing the government from the derogatory remarks.
    • Cyber Attack Suspicions: Following the incident, several Maldivian government websites, including the foreign ministry, were suspected to be under cyber-attack.

    Conclusion

    • Surprise and Disappointment: The incident has surprised many in India and the Maldives, given the history of diplomatic support and cooperation.
    • Unlikely to Affect Relations: Analysts believe the conduct of a few individuals is unlikely to impact broader India-Maldives bilateral relations.
    • Need for Diplomatic Sensitivity: The episode underscores the importance of maintaining respectful and diplomatic communication between neighboring countries.

  • Suspending the Free Movement Regime: India’s Border Policy with Myanmar

    Free Movement Regime

    Central Idea

    • On January 2, the Indian government announced plans to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the Myanmar border.
    • Residents in border areas, previously able to cross freely, will now require visas.

    About Free Movement Regime

    • Initiated in the 1970s, the FMR allowed people living within 16 km of the India-Myanmar border to travel up to 16 km into the other country without a visa.
    • India shares a 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar, which passes through the States of Arunachal Pradesh (520 km), Nagaland (215 km), Manipur (398 km), and Mizoram (510 km).
    • This regime recognized the deep-rooted familial and ethnic connections between communities on either side of the unfenced border.
    • The FMR was last revised in 2016, aligning with India’s Act East policy. However, it was suspended in Manipur since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Reasons for the Policy Shift

    • Security and Illegal Activities: The FMR has been under scrutiny for facilitating illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and insurgency.
    • Refugee Influx Post-Coup: Following Myanmar’s military coup in February 2021, over 40,000 refugees entered Mizoram, and around 4,000 entered Manipur, exacerbating security concerns.
    • Local Government Stance: Manipur’s Chief Minister urged the Ministry of Home Affairs to cancel the FMR and complete border fencing, linking ethnic violence in the state to the free movement across the border.

    Implications of Scrapping the FMR

    • Impact on Local Communities: Ending the FMR could significantly affect the daily lives of border residents, who depend on cross-border access for various needs.
    • Cultural and Social Disruption: The policy change might strain the cultural and social fabric of communities with shared ethnicities across the border.

    Way forward

    • Border Fencing: The government plans to fence about 300 km of the border, with a tender expected soon.
    • Regulatory Revisions: Experts suggest refining the FMR to better regulate movement while maintaining cross-border ties.
    • Infrastructure and Trade: Enhancing infrastructure and formalizing trade at designated entry points could mitigate some negative impacts.
    • Community Engagement: Involving border communities in decision-making is crucial for effective and sensitive border management.

    Conclusion

    • Balancing Security and Community Needs: The decision to end the FMR requires a nuanced approach that considers both national security and the rights of border communities.
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Strengthening diplomatic relations with Myanmar is key to managing this transition effectively.
    • Future Challenges: As India navigates this policy change, it faces the challenge of securing its borders while respecting the socio-economic realities of border populations.

  • India, Pakistan conduct Annual Exchange of List of Nuclear Installations

    pakistan

    Central Idea

    • India and Pakistan has exchanged a list of their nuclear installations that cannot be attacked in case of an escalation in hostilities.

    Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement

    • The Non-nuclear aggression agreement is a bilateral and nuclear weapons control treaty between India and Pakistan, on the reduction (or limitation) of nuclear arms.
    • Both pledged not to attack or assist foreign powers to attack on each others nuclear installations and facilities.
    • The treaty was drafted in 1988, and signed by PM Rajiv Gandhi and his counterpart Benazir Bhutto on 21 December 1988; it entered into force on January 1991.
    • The treaty barred its signatories from carrying out a surprise attack (or to assist foreign powers to attack) on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities.
    • Starting in January 1992, India and Pakistan have annually exchanged lists of their respective military and civilian nuclear-related facilities.

    Need for the treaty

    • In 1986-87, the massive exercise, ‘Brasstacks’ was carried out by the Indian Army, raising fears of an Indian attack on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.
    • Since then, the Foreign ministries of both countries have been negotiating to reach an understanding towards the control of nuclear weapons.

    Significance of the agreement

    • The treaty barred its signatories from carrying out a surprise attack (or to assist foreign powers to attack) on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities.
    • The treaty provides a confidence-building security measure environment.

    Other: Sharing of Prisoners information

    • Both nations simultaneously share the list of prisoners in each other’s custody.
    • These lists are exchanged under the provisions of the Agreement on Consular Access signed in May 2008.
    • Under this pact, the two countries should exchange comprehensive lists on January 1 and July 1 every year (i.e. twice a year).

  • Strategy and Foreign Affairs for India in 2024

    Central Idea

    • Contradiction in Global Aspirations: Despite calls for peace, 2023 witnessed the continuation and emergence of significant conflicts, notably between Russia and Ukraine, and in the Gaza Strip.
    • China’s Stance: Amidst its economic challenges, China’s aggressive posture remains a concern for the West and India, adding to the global tension.

    2023: Strategic Realities and Challenges

    Crisis in the Middle East: The Hamas attack disrupted efforts to normalize Israel-Arab relations, leading to a devastating response from Israel and derailing the reconciliation process.

    1. Stress in India-US Ties: Allegations of an Indian official’s involvement in an assassination plot have strained relations, with India promising to investigate if provided with information.
    2. Russia-Ukraine War Fatigue: The prolonged conflict sees the West grappling with funding challenges, while Russia, despite sanctions, maintains resilience, partly due to its closeness with China.
    3. India’s Maldives Challenge: The new government’s request for India to withdraw military personnel and terminate agreements reflects its proximity to China, complicating India’s strategic position.
    4. China, the Biggest Worry: The ongoing border standoff and China’s influence in the region, including its ties with Russia and the Maldives, continue to be India’s primary strategic concerns.
    5. G20 and Global South Positioning: India’s leadership in the G20 and its role in uniting the Global South reflect its aspiration to continue the legacy of Non-Alignment adapted to modern realities.
    6. Engagement in Kabul: India’s cautious engagement with the Taliban and coordination for consular services indicate a nuanced approach to Afghanistan, balancing security and diplomatic needs.

    2024: Anticipating Challenges and Opportunities

    • Impact of Lok Sabha Elections: The election outcome will significantly influence India’s foreign policy, with a stronger mandate potentially leading to more assertive stances, while a weaker mandate might reflect coalition compulsions.
    • US & Canada Relationships: Navigating the complexities arising from the assassination plot allegations and maintaining robust ties with both nations will be crucial for India.
    • New Government in Pakistan: The post-election scenario in Pakistan might offer a window for re-engagement, depending on the political dynamics and India’s strategic choices.
    • Outcome in Bangladesh: India’s interest in the continuation of Sheikh Hasina’s government reflects security and connectivity priorities, with the opposition viewed with caution.
    • Continuing Deadlock with China: The border standoff and its potential escalation will be a critical factor in India’s security and diplomatic strategy, especially in an election year.
    • West Asia Dynamics: India’s evolving stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications for its position in the Global South will be closely watched, with a focus on balancing relations and principles.
    • Future of the War in Ukraine: India’s balancing act between its economic interests and international pressures, especially in its relationship with Russia, will continue to be a delicate matter.
    • Trade Pacts and Tech Partnerships: Finalizing trade agreements and enhancing tech partnerships with the West will be key areas of focus, with potential major developments expected in 2024.

    Conclusion

    • Balancing Act: India’s foreign policy in the coming years will involve navigating a complex array of global conflicts, bilateral tensions, and internal political dynamics.
    • Strategic Posture: The outcomes of various global and regional conflicts, along with India’s own electoral politics, will shape its strategic and foreign policy posture, reflecting a blend of continuity and change.

  • India-Oman to sign FTA in Jan 2024

    oman

    Central Idea

    • India and Oman are rapidly progressing in their negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), expected to be signed in January 2024.
    • The second round of talks was recently concluded in Muscat, indicating both countries’ eagerness to finalize the deal.

    India-Oman Trade Relations

    • Export Destination: Oman is India’s third-largest export destination in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), making the FTA crucial for enhancing Indian exports.
    • Current Trade Dynamics: Over 80% of Indian goods currently enter Oman with an average import duty of 5%, and the FTA aims to reduce these barriers.

    Potential Benefits of the FTA

    • Boost in Exports: The agreement is expected to significantly increase Indian exports in various sectors, including gasoline, iron and steel, electronics, and machinery.
    • Key Export Sectors: Sectors like motor gasoline, iron and steel products, electronics, machinery, textiles, plastics, boneless meat, essential oils, and motor cars are likely to benefit from duty elimination.

    Economic Context and Strategic Importance

    • Oman’s Economy: With a GDP of about USD 115 billion and a higher per capita income compared to India, Oman presents a market for diversified and higher-value Indian goods and services.
    • Bilateral Trade Growth: India-Oman bilateral trade reached USD 12.39 billion in 2022-23, with Indian exports and imports showing significant growth.
    • Oman’s Position: Oman’s strategic location in the Arabian Gulf region, with key ports along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, is of utmost importance to India.
    • Historical Ties: The longstanding connection between Oman’s ruling family and India has fostered strong bilateral relations, with a significant Indian community contributing to these ties.

    India-Oman Strategic Partnership

    • Defense and Security: The partnership, strengthened by a MoU signed in 2005, includes joint exercises and cooperation in maritime security.
    • Trade and Commerce: Bilateral trade and joint ventures are key pillars of engagement, with significant Indian investment in Oman.

    Future Collaborations and Regional Stability

    • Space and Rare Earth Metals: Prospects for cooperation in space exploration and rare earth metals exploration are on the horizon.
    • Connectivity Projects: Oman could play a crucial role in India’s proposed connectivity corridors and infrastructure projects in West Asia.

    Conclusion

    • Shared Interests: The deepening India-Oman relationship, marked by shared interests and mutual respect, positions Oman as India’s gateway to West Asia.
    • Broader Engagement: As India seeks to expand its global outreach, particularly in West Asia, Oman’s strategic importance and balanced foreign policy make it a key ally in the region.

  • How India chooses its Republic Day chief guest?

    Republic Day

    Central Idea

    • France’s President Emmanuel Macron is set to be the chief guest for India’s 75th Republic Day celebrations.
    • The invitation extended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi signifies a high diplomatic honor and reflects the strong ties between India and France.

    Honor of Republic Day Chief Guest

    • Ceremonial Significance: Being the chief guest at India’s Republic Day is a top diplomatic honor, involving participation in various ceremonial activities.
    • Activities and Protocol: The chief guest receives a guard of honor, attends a presidential reception, lays a wreath at Rajghat, and is honored with a banquet and lunch.
    • Symbolism and Friendship: As per Ambassador Manbir Singh, the visit symbolizes participation in India’s pride and reflects the friendship between the two nations.

    Selection Process for the Chief Guest

    • Advance Planning: The process begins about six months prior, with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) playing a central role.
    • Key Considerations: The decision is driven by political, commercial, military, and economic interests, aiming to strengthen ties with the invitee’s country.
    • Historical Factors: The Non-Aligned Movement’s legacy has also influenced past selections, with an emphasis on mutual support and nation-building.

    Procedure Post-Selection

    • Approval and Discretion: After MEA’s selection, approvals are sought from the Prime Minister and President, followed by discreet confirmation of the invitee’s availability.
    • Official Communications and Planning: Post-confirmation, official communications and detailed planning for the visit and ceremonies are undertaken.

    Challenges and Contingencies

    • Potential for Unplanned Events: Organizers prepare for various contingencies, including health issues or weather disruptions.
    • Protocol Challenges: Incidents like the one recounted by Ambassador Singh, involving the ADC of a chief guest, highlight the importance of strict adherence to protocol.

    Broader Implications of the Visit

    • Ceremonial and Strategic Importance: The role of the Republic Day chief guest blends ceremonial honor with strategic diplomacy, playing a key role in India’s international relations and foreign policy.
    • Media Coverage and Perception: The visit is closely monitored by international media, influencing perceptions of the guest’s nation.
    • Cultural and Diplomatic Impact: The hospitality and ceremonies reflect India’s traditions and culture, enhancing diplomatic relations.
    • Beyond Ceremonial Significance: The visit of the chief guest holds potential for opening new avenues in international relations and advancing India’s global interests.

  • Gelephu Mega-City Project

    Gelephu

    Central Idea

    • The Gelephu “mindfulness” mega-city project, announced by King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, is set to be a pivotal task for Bhutan’s future PM.
    • This Special Administrative Region (SAR) project in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) aims to address economic challenges and reverse youth migration trends.

    About Gelephu Project

    Details
    Location Gelephu, Sarpang district, Bhutan, near the border with Assam, India.
    Announcement Made by King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck during the 116th National Day address at Changlimathang Stadium, Thimphu on December 17.
    Project Vision Envisioned as an “economic corridor” connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia via India’s northeastern states to countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
    Area and Structure The project will cover an area of 1,000 sq km (250,000 acres) and will be developed as a Special Administrative Region (SAR).
    Economic and Social Goals Aims to be an economic and social hub on Bhutan’s southern border, designed to benefit the entire South Asian region and address youth migration by providing local employment and skilling opportunities.
    Infrastructure Development – Plans for Bhutan’s second international airport capable of landing larger planes than Paro Airport.

    – Proposed rail link between Kokrajhar in Assam, India, and Gelephu, Bhutan.

    – Enhanced road connectivity for trade and connectivity with Southeast Asian countries.
    Environmental and Cultural Focus Emphasizes environmental sustainability and cultural sensitivity.

    Aims to attract ‘quality investment’ from internationally screened companies that align with Bhutanese values.
    Energy Focus on renewable energy sources, aligning with Bhutan’s commitment to environmental sustainability.
    International Collaboration Engagements with prominent Indian industrialists and companies for potential collaboration and investment.
    Geopolitical Significance Strategic initiative for regional integration, enhancing Bhutan’s connectivity with South and Southeast Asia.
    Advanced Safety Features Expected to incorporate advanced safety and environmental features, including a passive decay heat removal system.

  • From ‘rule taker’ to ‘rule shaper’, the evolution of India in international negotiations

    The 'Tech' Moment in India's Foreign Policy – South Asian Voices

    Central idea 

    The article underscores the overlooked role of foreign policy and diplomacy in contemporary discussions on India’s trade policy. It highlights the evolving diplomatic strategies and negotiations, particularly in the context of the multilateral trading system, emphasizing India’s transformation from a “rule-taker” to a “rule-shaper” on the global stage. The successful handling of the G20 Summit is presented as evidence of India’s progressing transition from a balancing power to a leading power.

    Key Highlights:

    • India’s Rising Prominence: The article highlights India’s growing influence on the global stage, especially evident at COP26 with Prime Minister Modi’s strategic initiatives for low-carbon development.
    • Neglected Discourse: The author emphasizes the overlooked aspect of foreign policy and diplomacy in contemporary discussions on trade policy in India.

    Key Challenges:

    • Trade Policy Oversight: The neglect of understanding the multilateral trading system’s workings despite India’s significant trade-to-GDP ratio.
    • Complex Negotiations: The challenge of formulating a negotiating position that aligns with the multitude of stakeholders in India.

    Key Terms/Phrases:

    • Integrated Framework: The theoretical model introduced by Ambassador Mohan Kumar to analyze India’s negotiating briefs and diplomatic motivations.
    • GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade): A reference to the foundational international treaty for trade negotiation and the precursor to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
    • Plurilateral Negotiations: Negotiations involving a subgroup of WTO members, not necessarily the entire membership.

    Key Quotes/Anecdotes:

    • “Poverty Veto”: Exploring the term used to describe India’s defensive posturing in international trade negotiations to protect domestic interests.
    • India’s Diplomatic Deftness: Showcasing India’s diplomatic skills in navigating the Ukraine-Russia conflict and evacuating its citizens.

    Key Statements:

    • India’s Diplomatic Evolution: Describing India’s shift from being a “rule-taker” to a “rule-shaper” in international negotiations, emphasizing its growing role in shaping global rules.
    • G20 Summit Success: The G20 Summit’s success as proof of India’s transformation from a balancing power to a leading power.

    Key Examples and References:

    • COP26 Initiatives: Prime Minister Modi’s Panchamrit Action Plan and long-term strategy at COP26 as examples of India’s innovative approaches to global challenges.
    • Ukraine-Russia Conflict: India’s strategic independence and moral position during the conflict, showcasing diplomatic effectiveness.

    Key Facts/Data:

    • Trade-to-GDP Ratio: India’s overall trade-to-GDP ratio at 50% in the last decade, underscoring the significance of trade in the economy.

    Critical Analysis:

    • Neglected Aspect: Criticizing the lack of attention given to foreign policy and diplomacy in discussions related to trade policy in India.
    • Balancing Act: Examining how India balances geopolitical pressures and domestic constraints to advance its national interests in international trade negotiations.

    Way Forward:

    • Reviving Multilateral Trading System: The anticipation of a revival of the multilateral trading system, anchored in the WTO, to pursue a development-based trade agenda.
    • Policy Adjustments: Considering a more circumspect approach to trade negotiations to balance the risks and rewards, especially in the context of preferential trading systems.

  • Maldives decides to end Hydrographic Survey Pact with India

    Hydrographic Survey

    Central Idea

    • The Maldives government has chosen not to renew a hydrographic survey agreement with India, marking a significant change in bilateral relations.

    Hydrographic Survey Pact: A Backgrounder

    • Nature of Hydrographic Surveys: These surveys involve mapping water bodies to facilitate safe and efficient maritime transportation.
    • 2019 Agreement: During Prime Minister Modi’s state visit to the Maldives in June 2019, an MoU was signed for cooperation in hydrography between the Indian Navy and the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF).

    Activities under the Pact

    • Joint Hydrographic Surveys: Three joint surveys were conducted in 2021, 2022, and 2023, involving Indian Naval Ships like INS Darshak and INS Sutlej.
    • Survey Objectives: The surveys aimed to update navigational charts and support sectors like tourism and fisheries. They also involved tidal observations and identifying new shoals.
    • Support to MNDF: India provided hydrographic equipment and training to MNDF personnel, aligning with its policy of supporting the Maldives in establishing hydrographic capabilities.

    India’s Hydrographic Survey Agreements with Other Countries

    • Global Hydrographic Efforts: India has conducted hydrographic surveys in various countries, including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.
    • International Cooperation: The National Hydrographic Office highlights the potential for international cooperation in hydrography, especially in regions with limited capabilities.

    Reasons behind Maldives’ Decision   

    • Regime Change: The election of Mohamed Muizzu of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), seen as more pro-China, contrasts with his predecessor President Solih’s India-friendly stance.
    • Geopolitical Dynamics: China’s increasing influence in the Indian Ocean region, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has impacted India’s traditional sphere of influence in the Maldives.
    • ‘India Out’ Campaign: Allegations of Indian military presence and the new administration’s emphasis on national security and self-reliance in hydrographic capabilities have influenced this decision.

    Possible outcomes

    • Changing Geopolitical Landscape: The Maldives’ decision reflects the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean, with growing Chinese influence challenging India’s traditional role.
    • Impact on India-Maldives Relations: This development could signify a recalibration of the Maldives’ foreign policy, potentially impacting India’s strategic interests in the region.

  • Iran announces Visa-free Travel for Indian Citizens

    Central Idea

    • Iran has announced the removal of visa requirements for Indian citizens and nationals from 32 other countries.
    • The decision is aimed at increasing tourism and improving global perceptions of Iran.

    Iran’s Visa-Free Travel Initiative

    • Countries Included: The list includes Russia, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, several Central Asian and African countries, Japan, Singapore, Southeast Asian nations, and select countries in Latin America and Europe.
    • Previous Visa Exemptions: Iran had earlier lifted visa requirements for Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Oman, China, Armenia, Lebanon, and Syria.
    • Tourist Influx Statistics: Iran witnessed a 48.5% increase in tourist numbers, reaching 4.4 million in the first eight months of the current Iranian year.

    Proposal for Wider Visa-Free Travel

    • Ministry’s Initial Proposal: The Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts proposed visa-free travel for 60 countries, though it wasn’t fully approved.
    • Umrah Flights to Saudi Arabia: Starting December 19, Iranians can travel to Saudi Arabia for Umrah, marking the first such opportunity in eight years.

    India’s Growing Outbound Tourism Market

    • Current Visa-Free Countries: 27 countries now offer visa-free entry to Indian citizens, with recent additions including Kenya, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.
    • Popular Destinations for Indian Citizens: The top five travel destinations are the UAE, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Thailand, with many visiting as part of the diaspora.