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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • Sri Lanka cabinet approves new economic law to meet IMF targets

    Why in the News?

    SRI Lanka’s Cabinet has approved a new economic law to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio that will cover key targets set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    • The debt-to-GDP ratio measures the proportion of a country’s national debt to its gross domestic product.
    • According to the World Bank, the countries whose debt-to-GDP ratios exceed 77% for prolonged periods experience significant slowdowns in economic growth.

    What are the IMF Targets?

      • The IMF has various targets and initiatives aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth and prosperity for its member countries.
      • It includes promoting financial stability, monetary cooperation, and transparency in economic policies to enhance productivity, job creation, and economic well-being.
    • Indian Scenario:
        • India has not taken any financial assistance from the IMF since 1993.
        • India’s current quota in the IMF is SDR (Special Drawing Rights) 5,821.5 million, making it the 13th largest quota-holding country at IMF and giving it shareholdings of 2.44%.
    • For Sri Lanka:
      • The IMF targets Sri Lanka to reduce its debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 95% by 2030.
      • Another target set by the IMF is to reduce debt servicing costs to 4.5% of GDP. It means Sri Lanka needs to focus on managing the costs associated with servicing it’s debt obligations, aiming to make it more sustainable and manageable in the long term.

    How will the debt-to-GDP ratio be reduced?   

    • Fiscal Discipline: Sri Lanka may need to implement measures to improve fiscal discipline, such as reducing government Expenditure, increasing Tax revenue, and narrowing Budget Deficits.
    • Debt Restructuring: Sri Lanka can explore negotiating with creditors to extend debt maturities, reduce interest rates, or reprofile debt payments.
    • Revenue Enhancement: The government could focus on enhancing revenue generation through tax reforms, improved tax administration, and efforts to broaden the tax base.
    • Economic Growth: Promoting economic growth is essential for reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio over the long term. Sri Lanka could implement policies to stimulate investment, boost productivity, and enhance competitiveness, leading to higher GDP growth rates and a more sustainable debt trajectory.

    What does India do presently to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio?

    • Targeted Reduction: According to a research paper by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the government aims to lower the general government debt-GDP ratio to 73.4% by 2030-31. This target is approximately 5% points lower than the trajectory projected by the IMF, indicating ambitious yet achievable goals.
    • Promotes Fiscal Space: The Indian Central Bank – RBI emphasized reducing debt burdens to free up fiscal space for new investments, particularly in critical areas like the green transition. This suggests a strategic focus on investing in sustainable and environmentally friendly initiatives.
    • Aligning with IMF: The IMF projects a positive trend in India’s debt reduction efforts, forecasting a decline in government debt from 81% of GDP in 2022 to 80.5% in 2028. This indicates that India’s debt reduction measures are consistent with international expectations and standards.

    Conclusion: Focus on enhancing revenue generation through Comprehensive Tax reforms, improved tax compliance, and efforts to broaden the tax base is needed. Secondly, rationalizing Tax revenues can provide additional resources to finance government expenditures without relying heavily on borrowing, thus reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q The World Bank and the IMF, collectively known as the Bretton Woods Institutions, are the two inter-governmental pillars supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order. Superficially, the World Bank and the IMF exhibit many common characteristics, yet their role, functions and mandates are distinctly different. Elucidate. (UPSC IAS/2013)

  • [14 May 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: Stabilising India-Nepal ties in changing times

    PYQ Relevance:
    Mains: 
    Q How far are India’s internal security challenges linked with border management particularly in view of the long porous borders with most countries of South Asia and Myanmar? (UPSC IAS/2013)
    Q Border management is a complex task due to difficult terrain and hostile relations with some countries. Elucidate the challenges and strategies for effective border management.  (UPSC IAS/2016)

    Prelims:

    Consider the following statements:  (UPSC IAS/2020)
    1) The value of Indo-Sri Lanka trade has consistently increased in the last decade.
    2) “Textile and textile articles” constitute an important item of trade between India and Bangladesh.
    3) In the last five years, Nepal has been the largest trading partner of India in South Asia.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
    (a) 1 and 2 only
    (b) 2 only
    (c) 3 only
    (d) 1, 2 and 3

    Note4Students: 

    Prelims:  Political Theories; Secularism

    Mains: Society; Secularism;

    Mentor comment: Despite frequent changes in government and the emergence of leaders perceived as anti-India or pro-China, India has maintained a non-partisan approach focused on supporting inclusive economic development, interdependence, communication links, and people-to-people contacts with Nepal.  India’s deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Nepal, as well as its ability to manage security concerns, have allowed it to navigate these challenges. There is the need for fresh thinking on a range of issues, including economic recovery, bilateral and regional cooperation, supply chain restructuring, energy cooperation, and development.

    Let’s learn.

    –

    Why in the News?

    Being a neighboring country of both – India and China, Nepal grapples with restlessness and uncertainty amid political and economic challenges. 

    • Questions arise on its rushed transition to democracy, identity, and governance amidst regional geopolitics.
    About India-Nepal Bilateral Relations:

    Strategic Relations:
    Geopolitical Dynamics: India is actively countering China’s influence in Nepal through economic diplomacy and expanding cooperation in various sectors.
    Energy Cooperation: Both countries have signed agreements to boost cooperation in the energy sector, with India involved in developing several hydropower projects for long-term power trade agreements. For example, the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project (PMP) is a bi-national Multi-Purpose Project, primarily aimed at energy production and augmenting irrigation.

    Infrastructure Projects: Efforts are underway to work on infrastructure projects to improve connectivity, such as the unveiling of railway line sections and the inauguration of Integrated Checkposts. India is also undertaking three High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) in Nepal.

    Soft Relations:

    Cultural and Religious Ties: Steps have been taken to strengthen cultural and religious ties between India and Nepal, including discussions on projects related to the Ramayana circuit, reflecting their shared cultural heritage.
    Improvement in Relations: After a period of strain, relations between India and Nepal have been improving, especially with several high-level visits, indicating efforts to enhance cooperation and resolve contentious issues.

    Border Disputes:

    Recent Developments in Nepal under China’s Influence

    • Political Shifts: Recent coalition changes in Nepal have seen a shift towards leaders perceived as pro-China and anti-India, notably with K.P. Sharma Oli’s return to power. China has actively supported the left alliance in Nepal, pushing for closer ties and cooperation, including on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
    • Military Cooperation: High-level military visits and agreements indicate China’s intent to expand its influence in Nepal, potentially at India’s expense.
    • Nationalistic Trends: Rising ultra-nationalistic sentiments in Nepal, from far left to far right, pose challenges to India-Nepal relations.
    • Security Concerns: Historical instances of political instability in Nepal leading to security threats for India highlight the importance of stable relations between the two countries.
    • Geopolitical Dynamics: China’s increasing involvement in Nepal raises concerns for India, necessitating a strategic approach to counter potential challenges and maintain regional stability.
    • Regional and International Dynamics: While India has alliances like the QUAD (Australia, India, Japan, the United States) and other Indo-Pacific groupings, relying on them in case of a major crisis in Nepal would be risky.
      • The situation in Nepal could potentially lead to a new “Great Game” involving major regional and global powers.

    What is India’s present stand?

    • Non-Interference policy: India has been keeping a low profile and avoiding involvement in Nepal’s internal affairs to prevent controversy.
    • Lending hand for development: India tries to always offer a new, holistic development roadmap aimed at improving the quality of lifestyle for Nepalese. This agenda includes transformative and sustainable development initiatives in sectors such as health, education, food and nutrition, child development, gender equality, and job creation.
    • High-Level Attention: By high-level attention and promoting cross-party political consensus on major projects India tries to ensure continuity and achieve its time-bound results despite political instability.
    • Fostering Inter-linkages and Equality: Developing new inter-linkages between industries of both countries, India addresses the demographic dividend and fosters a sense of equality and sovereign space in Nepal. 

    Bone of Contention: Border Disputes

    Way Forward:

    • Engage in Quiet Diplomacy: India can engage in quiet diplomacy, fostering dialogue with Nepal’s political stakeholders across the spectrum. This approach can help India understand Nepal’s internal dynamics better while also conveying India’s concerns and interests subtly.
      • India should be mindful of the “big brother-small brother” syndrome, understanding that the onus lies on India to overcome this dynamic. 

  • India, Iran sign 10-year contract for Chabahar Port Operation

    Why in the news?

    • India and Iran signed a 10-year agreement for the operation of the Chabahar port, marking a significant milestone in their cooperation.

    Back2Basics: Chabahar Port

    • The port is located in southeastern Iran in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, on the Gulf of Oman and at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.
    • It is called the “Golden Gate” to Central Asian land-locked countries of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
    • It serves as Iran’s only oceanic port and consists of two separate ports named Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti.
    • It is only about 170 km west of the Gwadar port if Pakistan.
      • The development of Chabahar port was initiated by India with a MoU in 2015 and executed in 2016 during PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Iran.

    About the Agreement

    The contract, signed between Indian Ports Global Ltd. (IPGL) and Port and Maritime Organisation (PMO) of Iran, involves substantial investment and development initiatives.

    • IPGL will invest approximately $120 million in equipping the Shahid-Behesti terminal, enhancing the port’s efficiency and capacity.
    • India has extended a credit window of $250 million for mutually identified projects aimed at improving Chabahar-related infrastructure, emphasizing its commitment to regional development.

    Strategic Importance of Chabahar Port to India

    • Chabahar port will boost India’s access to Iran, the key gateway to the International North-South Transport Corridor that has sea, rail and road routes between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia.
    • Chabahar port will be beneficial to India in countering Chinese presence in the Arabian Sea which China is trying to ensure by helping Pakistan develop the Gwadar port.
    • India can bypass Pakistan in transporting goods to Afghanistan.

    Economic Significance

    • Chabahar Port is at an important point on the Arabian Sea, with easy access from India’s west coast.
    • Kandla port in Gujarat is the closest port at 550 nautical miles, while the distance between Chabahar and Mumbai is 786 nautical miles.
    • Since 2019, the port has handled more than 80,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container traffic and more than 8 million tonnes of bulk and general cargo.
    • The port also offers an alternative route from the Strait of Hormuz for cargo traffic between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.

    PYQ:

    [2017] What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India?

    (a) India’s trade with African countries will enormously increase.

    (b) India’s relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.

    (c) India will not depend on Pakistan to access Afghanistan and Central Asia.

    (d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the gas pipeline installation between Iraq and India.

  • Explained: History of India and Nepal’s border issue

    Why in the News? 

    Nepal’s Cabinet last week decided to put a map on its Rs 100 currency note showing certain areas administered by India in Uttarakhand as part of its territory.

    • India’s External Affairs Ministry said that such “unilateral measures” by Kathmandu would not change the reality on the ground.

    Genesis of the issue: 

    Territorial dispute: The territorial dispute is about a 372-sq-km area that includes Limpiadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani at the India-Nepal-China trijunction in Uttarakhand’s Pithoragarh district. Nepal has claimed for long that these areas belong to it both historically and evidently.
    • Treaty of Sugauli (1815-16): This treaty marked the end of the Anglo-Nepalese War and resulted in Nepal ceding significant territories to the British East India Company, including lands east of the Kali River. Article 5 of the treaty delineated the boundary along the river, thereby affecting Nepal’s jurisdiction over the area.
    • Historical division: Maps issued by the British Surveyor General of India in the 19th and early 20th centuries depicted the Kali River as originating from Limpiadhura. These maps served as crucial references for defining territorial boundaries between Nepal and British India.
    • Depiction of Kali River: Maps from different periods showed variations in the depiction of the Kali River, with some using the name “Kuti Yangti” and others referring to it as the Kali River. Additionally, discrepancies emerged regarding the river’s exact origin point, with some maps showing different sources.
    • Map issued by Britisher (1947): The last map issued by the British before they left India in 1947 reverted to showing the initial position of the Kali River originating in Limpiadhura, indicating a reaffirmation of the historical boundary according to British cartographic records.

    Argument given by Nepal to claim land:

    • According to Shrestha, villages in this area — Gunji, Nabhi, Kuti, and Kalapani, also known as Tulsi Nyurang and Nabhidang — were covered by the Nepal government census until 1962, and the people paid land revenue to the government in Kathmandu.
      • However, the situation changed after the war between India and China in 1962.
    • Nepal also says that then Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru approached King Mahendra of Nepal asking for permission to use Kalapani, which was strategically located close to the trijunction, as a base for the Indian Army.
    • Prominent personalities representing Nepal in bilateral talks have claimed that India has made assurances regarding the resolution of border disputes if Nepal could provide evidence for its claims.
    • Despite assurances and agreements to expedite the resolution process, progress has been slow or stalled.

    Frictions in Bilateral Ties:

    • From 2005-2014: The period from 2005 to 2014 saw India mediating Nepal’s transition from a Hindu Kingdom to a secular federal republic.
      • However, tensions arose in 2015 when Nepal’s Maoist Party rejected India’s suggestion to delay the adoption of a new constitution until the concerns of the Terai parties were addressed.
      • The subsequent 134-day blockade by India in September 2015 exacerbated distrust and led Nepal to seek alternative trade routes, including agreements with China.
    • During 2020: Nepal’s inclusion of disputed territories, such as the 372 square kilometres in Uttarakhand, in its new map in 2020 escalated tensions with India. While Nepal aimed to assert sovereignty over these areas, India condemned the move as “cartographic aggression.”
      • Despite India’s stance that the issue should be resolved diplomatically based on evidence, no concrete steps have been taken to address the dispute.
    • During 2024: The decision by Nepal’s cabinet to include the new map on its currency notes in 2024 has reignited tensions between the two countries.

    India-Nepal Border Dispute

    Way Forward:

    • Need for Dialogue: While both India and Nepal agree on the need to resolve territorial disputes through dialogue and evidence-based discussions, there has been no concrete progress in scheduling meetings or setting a timeframe for resolution.
    • Need for Dispute settlement: Nepal has successfully resolved boundary issues with China in the past through bilateral meetings of the boundary commission. However, the unresolved disputes with India highlight the importance of timely and effective diplomatic engagement to prevent future complications and ensure peaceful coexistence between the two neighbours.
    • Joint Border Commission: Establishing a joint border commission comprising representatives from both countries can facilitate a systematic review of historical documents, maps, and evidence related to territorial claims.

    Mains PYQ: 

    Q Border management is a complex task due to difficult terrain and hostile relations with some countries. Elucidate the challenges and strategies for effective border management.

  • [4 May 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: The paradox of India’s Global rise, its Regional decline

    PYQ Relevance:

    Mains: 

    Q Evaluate the economic and strategic dimensions of India’s Look East Policy in the context of the post-Cold War international scenario..(UPSC IAS/2016)

    Q India needs to strengthen measures to promote the pink revolution in food industry for ensuring better nutrition and health. Critically elucidate the statement.(UPSC IAS/2013)

    Note4Students: 

    Prelims: NA

    Mains: Challenges facing by India in south Asia,Factors contributing to India’s regional decline,

    Mentor comments:India’s paradoxical foreign policy sees a rising global stature fueled by economic growth, military strength, and multilateral engagements like the Quad and BRICS. Yet, regionally, it faces weakning influence due to relative power shifts vis-à-vis China, loss of primacy in South Asia, and evolving geopolitics in the region.

    Why in the news? 

    In contemporary Indian foreign policy, a perplexing paradox emerges as India rises on the global stage while concurrently experiencing a decline in regional influence.

    Factors contributing to India’s Regional decline:

    • American withdrawal and China’s influence: The withdrawal of the United States from the region has created a power vacuum, allowing China to expand its influence. This has been disadvantageous to India’s regional influence but has also led to increased interest from the United States and its allies in accommodating India’s global interests to counterbalance China.
    • Indo-Pacific focus: While India’s focus on the Indo-Pacific has garnered global attention, it may have stretched India’s resources too thin in its continental neighborhood. This shift in focus towards the great power balance in the Indo-Pacific has potentially contributed to India’s declining influence in South Asia.
    • Dynamic of comparative power: India’s regional decline is a result of the dynamics of comparative power, where the rise of China and the geopolitical choices made by the region’s smaller powers have shifted the balance of influence. Overlooking the balancing acts of smaller regional powers in favor of solely focusing on great power dynamics could be counterproductive for understanding the complexities of India’s regional decline.

    Challenges faced by India in South Asia: 

    • Rise of China: China’s ascent poses a significant challenge to India’s regional influence, with its growing power shifting the balance in South Asia.
    • Shift in regional dynamics: The arrival of China in South Asia, coupled with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the region, has altered the regional balance of power, creating geopolitical competition for influence.
    • Strategies of smaller South Asian nations: India’s smaller neighbors are adopting various strategies, such as balancing, bargaining, hedging, and bandwagoning, in response to the changing power dynamics, often viewing China as a useful hedge against India.
    • Obsolescence of South Asia as a geopolitical construct: The traditional concept of South Asia as a geopolitical entity is becoming obsolete, further challenging India’s hold on the region.

    What needs to be done? 

    • Revisiting traditional conceptions: India must reassess its traditional conceptions of the region and modernize its approach to maintain primacy in South Asia.
    • Accepting changing realities: Acknowledging the fundamental changes in the region’s geopolitics is crucial for India to effectively address the challenges it faces.
    • Focus on strengths: India should leverage its strengths rather than attempting to match China’s might in every aspect. Reclaiming its traditional strengths, such as its Buddhist heritage, can be beneficial.
    • Leveraging maritime advantages: Given the challenges in its continental strategy, India should capitalize on its maritime advantages in the Indo-Pacific to enhance trade, form minilaterals, and build issue-based coalitions.
    • Engaging with smaller South Asian neighbors: India should include its smaller South Asian neighbors in Indo-Pacific strategic conversations to wean them away from China’s regional grand strategy and strengthen partnerships with key players like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh.
    • Adopting a non-India centric approach: India’s willingness to view the region through a non-India centric lens signals openness to collaborating with external friendly partners in addressing common challenges in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

    Way Forward 

    • Diversify Engagement: India should diversify its engagement strategies to encompass both global and regional interests effectively. This could involve maintaining robust relationships with global powers while simultaneously strengthening ties with regional neighbors.
    • Enhance Regional Cooperation: India should prioritize enhancing cooperation and collaboration within South Asia. This could involve revitalizing initiatives like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and promoting bilateral partnerships with individual South Asian countries.

  • [PREMIUM] Travelling Central Asia

    Why in the news?

    The Central Asia region is in the spotlight since it is facing challenges with political instability, ethnic tensions, and the threat of extremism, especially after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

    About Central Asia

    • Central Asia, often referred to as the heart of Asia, is a vast and diverse region located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.
    • It encompasses the area between the Caspian Sea in the west and China in the east, and from Russia in the north to Afghanistan and Iran in the south.
    • Central Asia is comprised of five main countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
    • This region has a rich history, serving as the historical crossroads of the Silk Road, which facilitated trade and cultural exchange between Europe and Asia for centuries.

    Geographical Details:

    • Mountains:
    • Tian Shan: This mountain range stretches across Central Asia, forming a natural border between Kyrgyzstan and China. It is renowned for its majestic peaks, including Pobeda Peak, the highest point in Kyrgyzstan.
    • Pamir Mountains: Known as the “Roof of the World,” the Pamir Mountains are located in Tajikistan and extend into neighboring countries. They contain some of the world’s highest peaks, including Ismoil Somoni Peak (formerly known as Peak Communism) and Kongur Tagh.
    • Alay Mountains: Situated in southern Kyrgyzstan, the Alay Mountains are a subrange of the Tian Shan. They are characterized by rugged terrain and deep valleys.
    • Turkestan Range: This mountain range runs through southern Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, forming part of the border between the two countries.
    • Water Bodies:
    • Amu Darya: Also known as the Oxus River, the Amu Darya is one of the major rivers in Central Asia. It originates in the Pamir Mountains and flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before emptying into the Aral Sea (though much of its water is diverted for irrigation).
    • Syr Darya: Another important river in Central Asia, the Syr Darya, originates in the Tian Shan Mountains. It flows through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, eventually joining the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea basin.
    • Aral Sea: Once the fourth-largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea has shrunk dramatically due to diversion of its tributary rivers for irrigation purposes. Its decline has had severe ecological and economic consequences for the region.
    • Issyk-Kul: Located in eastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is one of the largest alpine lakes in the world. It is surrounded by snow-capped mountains and is a popular tourist destination.
    • Deserts:
    • Karakum Desert: Covering much of Turkmenistan, the Karakum Desert is characterized by vast expanses of sand dunes and sparse vegetation. It is home to the Darvaza Gas Crater, also known as the “Door to Hell.”
    • Kyzylkum Desert: Situated primarily in Uzbekistan, with parts extending into Kazakhstan, the Kyzylkum Desert is known for its red sands and arid climate. It is sparsely populated, with nomadic herders and wildlife such as gazelles and wild boars.
    • Mineral Resources:
    • Oil and Gas: The Caspian Sea region, in particular, is known for its oil and gas deposits, with countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan actively involved in their exploration and extraction. The discovery of large oil fields, such as the Tengiz Field in Kazakhstan and the Galkynysh Field in Turkmenistan, has attracted international investment and contributed to economic growth in the region.
    • Uranium: Kazakhstan is one of the world’s leading producers of uranium, with significant deposits located in the south of the country. Other Central Asian countries, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, also have uranium reserves, although they are less developed than those in Kazakhstan.
    • Precious Metals: Kyrgyzstan has a long history of gold mining, with several large-scale mines operating in the country. Uzbekistan is also a significant producer of gold, with the Muruntau Gold Mine being one of the largest in the world.
    • Copper, Aluminum, and Iron: These resources are primarily found in mountainous regions, such as the Tian Shan and Pamir Mountains. Countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have large deposits of copper ore, which are mined for domestic use and export. Additionally, Kazakhstan is a major producer of aluminum, with significant reserves of bauxite, the primary source of aluminum.
    • Climate
    • Central Asia experiences a continental climate, with hot summers and cold winters.
    • However, the climate varies significantly depending on altitude and proximity to mountain ranges.
    • In general, the region is characterized by low precipitation and high evaporation rates, leading to arid and semi-arid conditions in many areas.
    • The mountains influence local climates, with cooler temperatures and higher precipitation levels in upland areas.

    Major Disputed Areas:

    Countries Involved Description
    Bagys and Turkestanetz Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
    • Disputed settlements involved in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
    • Turkestanetz ultimately attributed to Uzbekistan, while Kazakhstan retained control over significant water reservoirs.
    • Negotiations primarily occurred in the early 2000s.
    • The area is characterized by flat plains and arid landscapes, typical of Central Asian geography.
    Arnasy Dam Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
    • Part of the land negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, particularly significant during the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.
    • The area surrounding the dam is marked by river valleys and semi-arid terrain, with the Arnasy River being a prominent feature.
    Sokh and Shakhi-Mardan Enclaves Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
    • Uzbek enclaves located in Kyrgyzstan, particularly contentious and mined by Uzbekistan as part of their border security measures.
    • Tensions in this area have been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with occasional flare-ups in violence.
    • The region is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan mountain ranges.
    Ferghana Valley Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
    • A fertile region shared by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, known for its complex network of enclaves and high degree of inter-ethnic tensions.
    • Disputes often arise over control of strategic points such as border crossings and access to water resources, leading to occasional clashes and violence.
    • Tensions in the Ferghana Valley have persisted since the early 1990s.
    • The valley is surrounded by the Tian Shan and Alay mountain ranges, with the Syr Darya river flowing through it.
    Vorukh Enclave Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan
    • A Tajik enclave within Kyrgyzstan, part of the complex border issues in the Ferghana Valley.
    • Tensions in this enclave date back to the Soviet era but have intensified since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
    • The enclave is nestled in the mountainous terrain of the Ferghana Valley, near the Zeravshan Range.
    Chardara Reservoir and Lake Arnasai Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
    • Areas discussed in border negotiations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
    • The negotiations occurred primarily in the late 1990s, with Kazakhstan securing a neck of land that provided a direct transport connection to the rest of the country.
    • The region is characterized by flat plains and agricultural land surrounding the reservoir and lake.
    • The Chardara Reservoir is fed by the Syr Darya river.
    Osh City and Osh Volost Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan
    • Areas that were contentious during the national delimitation in the Soviet period, particularly in the 1920s.
    • They were included in the Kirghiz Autonomous Oblast despite a high percentage of Uzbek residents who opposed this inclusion.
    • The area is characterized by mountainous terrain, including the Fergana Range.
    Isfara Valley Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
    • A narrow, densely populated valley straddling the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, disputes in this region often stem from territorial claims, resource allocation, and control of strategic points such as border crossings and water sources.
    • Tensions have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
    • The valley is surrounded by mountain ranges, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges, and is known for its agricultural productivity.
    Batken Region Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
    • Located in southern Kyrgyzstan, bordered by Tajikistan to the south and Uzbekistan to the west, disputes in this region are primarily related to territorial claims, control of strategic areas, and occasional clashes between border communities.
    • Tensions have been particularly notable since the mid-1990s.
    • The region is characterized by rugged mountain terrain, including the Pamir-Alay and Turkestan ranges.
    Karakalpakstan Uzbekistan
    • An autonomous republic within Uzbekistan, disputes in this region are mainly related to water scarcity, ecological degradation, and the socio-economic impact of the shrinking Aral Sea.
    • Tensions over these issues have escalated since the mid-20th century.
    • Karakalpakstan is characterized by flat, arid plains and is situated adjacent to the shrinking Aral Sea.
    Caspian Sea Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
    • The world’s largest inland body of water bordered by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, disputes often revolve around issues such as maritime boundaries, resource exploration rights, and environmental conservation.
    • Negotiations over the status of the Caspian Sea and its resources have been ongoing since the early 1990s.
    • The Caspian Sea is characterized by its vast expanse of water and surrounding coastal regions.

  • India delivers first batch of BrahMos to Philippines

    Why in the news?

    India has handed over the first batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines marking a significant step in bilateral defense cooperation.

    India- Philippines Brahmos Deal

    • In January 2022, the Philippines inked a $375-million deal with India for three batteries of the shore-based, anti-ship variant of the BrahMos missile,
    • This made it the first export customer for this joint venture between India and Russia.
    • Several countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, have expressed interest in procuring BrahMos systems, and discussions are underway.

    About BrahMos Missiles

    Development:

    • BrahMos is a joint venture between the DRDO and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya.
    • The name BrahMos comes from the two rivers, the Brahmaputra of India and the Moskva of Russia.
    • The first successful test in 2001 was conducted from a specially designed land-based launcher.

    Capabilities:

    • BrahMos is a medium-range ramjet supersonic cruise missile.
    • Launched from: Submarine, ships, aircraft, or land.
    • It is the fastest supersonic cruise missile in the world.
    • It has two stages:
    1. First stage comprising of a solid fuel rocket booster and
    2. Second stage comprising a liquid-fueled ramjet.

    Warhead:

    • Ship-launched and land-based missiles can carry a 200 kg warhead,
    • Aircraft-launched variant (BrahMos A) can carry a 300 kg warhead.

    Variants and Range 

    • The missile travels at speeds of Mach 2.8 to 3.0, which is being upgraded to Mach 5.0.
    • A hypersonic version of the missile, BrahMos-II, is also presently under development with a speed of Mach 7-8 to boost aerial fast strike capability.
    • Initially restricted by the Missile Technology Control Regime to a range of 290km, the BrahMos missile’s range was extended to 450km following India’s entry into the regime in June 2016.
    • Ongoing efforts aim further to extend the missile’s range beyond 600km, enhancing its operational reach and effectiveness in various scenarios.

    Strategic Implications of the move

    • This development comes amidst escalating tensions in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China emphasizing the significance of enhancing defensive preparedness.
    • The acquisition of BrahMos missiles under Horizon 2 of the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Programme will bolster the defensive capabilities of the Philippines armed forces.

    PYQ:

    [2014] Which reference to Agni-IV Missile, which of the following statements is/are correct?

    1. It is a surface-to-surface missile.
    2. It is fuelled by liquid propellant only.
    3. It can deliver one-tonne nuclear warheads about 7500 km away.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below.

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • [19 April 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: India’s nuanced approach in the South China Sea

    PYQ Relevance:

    Mains: 
    Q) South China Sea has assumed great geopolitical significance in the present context. Comment (UPSC IAS/2016)

    Q) With respect to the South China sea, maritime territorial disputes and rising tension affaire the need for safeguarding maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation and ever flight throughout the region. In this context, discuss the bilateral issues between India and China.(UPSC IAS/2014)

    Note4Students

    Mentor comments:Mr. Jaishankar’s comment was made amid the ongoing South China or West Philippine Sea dispute between Manila and Beijing which witnessed, arguably, its most intense and volatile year in 2023, with frequent tensions at sea and diplomatic friction. A joint statement in 2023 between New Delhi and Manila had also called for China to adhere to the rules-based maritime order and acknowledge the International Court of Justice ruling of 2016 in favour of Manila.

    Why in the news?

    In March 2024, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, articulated, in a joint statement during his visit to Manila, India’s full support for the Philippines in upholding its national sovereignty. 

    India’s complex ties with China

    • India’s evolving position in South China Sea : India’s evolving position on the South China Sea is closely tied to its complex relationship with China, which includes long-standing border disputes.
    • Border Disputes: India and China have a history of border disputes, which intensified following the Galwan Valley incident of 2020. China’s periodic incursions into Indian territory and renaming of Indian villages in Arunachal Pradesh have further strained relations.
    • Response to the Galwan Valley incident: India demonstrated its capability for asymmetric deterrence by sending a frontline warship to the South China Sea.
    • Disruptive Implications: China’s assertive posture and territorial claims in the South China Sea and along India’s land border have significant implications for regional stability.
    • Strategic Engagements: India has increased its strategic engagements, including regular naval exercises and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, to underline its commitment to regional security and counter China’s assertive actions.

    The policy evolution from India’s Look East Policy to Act East Policy:

    • Initially the Look East Policy: The Look East Policy initially emphasized economic integration with Southeast Asia and securing energy resources for India’s growing economy.
    • Economic Stakes: Indian state-owned enterprises, such as ONGC Videsh, engaged in oil and gas exploration projects in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zones, indicating India’s economic interests in the region.
    • Support for International Law: India’s involvement in maritime resource exploration projects underscored its support for the freedom of exploration and exploitation within the bounds of international law, particularly UNCLOS.
    • Shift to Act East Policy: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, there has been a strategic shift towards the Act East Policy, marking a more active and strategic engagement with the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Geopolitical Acknowledgment: The policy evolution reflects India’s recognition of the changing geopolitical landscape and the necessity for a proactive and multifaceted foreign policy approach.
    • Expanded Focus: The Act East Policy emphasizes not only economic integration but also strategic partnerships and increased security cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • Capacity Strengthening: India has bolstered its capacities through forward positioning, mission-based deployments, reinforced maritime domain awareness, and the development of deep-water maritime facilities.

    The role of ASEAN in the South China sea:

    • Central Involvement: ASEAN countries, along with China, are primarily involved in the disputes in the South China Sea, making ASEAN a central player in the region’s dynamics.
    • Importance of ASEAN Centrality: India’s Indo-Pacific strategy emphasizes the centrality of ASEAN, recognizing the importance of ASEAN’s position and cooperation in addressing challenges in the South China Sea.
    • Imperative for India to support ASEAN’s position: Despite its centrality, differences within ASEAN pose challenges to concerted efforts to address issues related to the South China Sea, making it imperative for India to support and strengthen ASEAN’s position.

    Conclusion: India should support the Philippines in upholding sovereignty. Strengthen strategic engagements and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations. Advocate for a rules-based order in the South China Sea, emphasizing ASEAN centrality and regional stability.

  • Where India’s trade with Israel and Iran stands, and whether regional tensions could impact it

    Why in the news? 

    Iran’s attack on Israel earlier this week has sparked tensions in the Middle East and beyond. India, which has friendly ties with both the countries, has expressed “serious concerns” about escalation of hostilities.

    India-Israel trade has doubled in the last five years

    • India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. Since then, trade between two countries has been rising significantly, from around $200 million in 1992 (comprising primarily of diamonds), to $10.7 billion (excluding defence) in the Financial Year 2022-23.

    What are the main components of India’s trade with Israel?

    • Based on India’s 8-digit Harmonized System code, under which trade items are classified, the most valued items exported by India to Israel included diesel, diamonds, aviation turbine fuel, radar apparatus, Basmati rice, T-shirts, and wheat.

    Value of India-Iran trade came down in the last five years

    • India’s trade with Iran has seen a contraction in recent years, before an uptick in the FY 2022-23. It increased by 21.77 per cent — from $1.94 billion in 2021-22 to $2.33 billion in 2022-23.

    Israel and Iran do not have significant FDI in India

    • Israel’s FDI in India: Israel’s contribution to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India is relatively low, accounting for just 0.4% of the total FDI inflows between April 2000 and December 2023. FDI from Israel to India amounted to $288 million during this period.
    • Indian Investment in Israel: Conversely, Indian firms have invested more in Israel, with cumulative Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) reaching around US$ 383 million from April 2000 to May 2023.
    • India’s Investment in Iran: India is involved in developing the first phase of the Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar in Iran. This initiative aims to enhance India’s connectivity and trade relations with the Middle East and Central Asia.

    How could Middle East tensions impact the Indian economy?

    • Impact on Trade Routes: Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea region, could disrupt crucial trade routes connecting Europe and Asia. Roughly 12 percent of global trade depends on this route, potentially affecting India’s trade.
    • Shipping Disruptions: Yemen-based militants, known as the Houthis, have targeted ships passing through the Red Sea since November 2023, leading to shipping disruptions. This could exacerbate India’s trade problems.
    • Stability Concerns in West Asia: The conflict between Iran and Israel adds to the instability in West Asia, potentially delaying projects like the Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
    • Impact on Petroleum Prices: While the ongoing conflict may not significantly disrupt crude oil and gas production, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could lead to higher oil and gas prices. However, the impact on Indian consumers may be minimal as the government could offset price increases by reducing taxes.

    Conclusion: India’s friendly ties with both Israel and Iran provide an opportunity for diplomatic engagement to mitigate the escalation of hostilities in the region. By actively participating in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue, India can contribute to regional stability and safeguard its economic interests.

    Mains PYQ 

    Q There arose a serious challenge to the Democratic State System between the two World Wars.” Evaluate the statement. (UPSC IAS/2021)

  • [12 April 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: In poll season, the perils of scorching bilateral ties

    [12 April 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: In poll season, the perils of scorching bilateral ties

    Mains PYQ Relevance: 

    Q The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is viewed as a cardinal subset of China’s larger ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. Give a brief description of CPEC and enumerate the reasons why India has distanced itself from the same.(UPSC IAS/2018)

    Q “Increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in India and growing interference in the internal affairs of several member-states by Pakistan are not conducive for the future of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation).” Explain with suitable examples.(UPSC IAS/2016)

    Note4Students: 

    Mains:  Bilateral ties

    Mentor comments: In the contemporary era of populism, an unwritten maxim dictates that “all geopolitics is local,” shaping policymaking worldwide. Consequently, leaders often craft foreign policies with a keen eye on domestic political ramifications, aiming not only to avoid negative impacts but even to secure additional voter support. However, it’s unusual for general elections to become entangled with foreign policy matters to the extent seen in the upcoming elections in India.

    Let’s learn

    —

    Why in the news? 

    The upcoming 2024 elections in India are making headlines due to the significant impact they may have on the country’s foreign policy.

    Raising Geopolitical issues in the General Election:

    • The recent statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar calling into question the 1974 India-Sri Lanka agreement. 
    • Not only did they both  criticize former Prime Ministers and their party for the decision to recognise Katchatheevu island as part of Sri Lankan territory, but the External Affairs Minister also went on to say that a “solution” must be found for the continuing “situation” Tamil Nadu fishermen find themselves in as a result of the agreement.

    Credibility could take a hit:

    • Reputation as an Interlocutor: Any move by New Delhi to reopen or revise international agreements, especially those recognized by bodies like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), could call into question India’s reliability and credibility as a diplomatic partner.  
    • Impact on Negotiations: Renegotiating or revising agreements, such as the maritime boundary settlement with Bangladesh or the land boundary agreement between India and Bangladesh, could complicate ongoing negotiations and strain diplomatic relations with partner countries.  
    • Precedent Setting: The actions taken by India regarding the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan serve as a precedent. Despite threats and calls for renegotiation, the treaty remains intact.
      • This indicates the challenges and complexities involved in revising established agreements, underscoring the potential ramifications for India’s credibility.
    • Long-Term Consequences: Any perceived inconsistency in India’s approach to international agreements may have long-term consequences for its diplomatic standing and ability to effectively engage in multilateral negotiations.  

    Key Challenges with Indian Government: 

    • Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and the NRC: The implementation of the CAA, which excludes Muslims and is seen as discriminatory by neighboring countries like Bangladesh, has the potential to strain diplomatic ties.
      • Additionally, fears over the subsequent implementation of the NRC and the potential designation of hundreds of thousands of people from Bangladesh as stateless citizens could further escalate tensions with Dhaka.
    • China Factor: The ongoing standoff with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) raises concerns, particularly regarding China’s occupation of land since April 2020.
    • Canada Factor: Allegations of transnational killings by Indian agencies, including the trial of an Indian national in the United States for an alleged assassination plot and Canada’s claims of Indian involvement in the killing of a Sikh community leader, have sparked international attention and scrutiny.
    • Pakistan Factor: Pakistan has sought to align its claims of Indian involvement in killings with cases in the U.S. and Canada, further complicating diplomatic relations between the two countries.

    Way Forward: 

    • Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC): Engage in transparent dialogue with neighboring countries, especially Bangladesh, to address concerns about the discriminatory nature of the CAA and potential implications of the NRC.
    • Standoff with China: Prioritize diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions and seek peaceful resolutions to territorial disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
    • Alleged Transnational Killings: Cooperate with international investigations to transparently address allegations of transnational killings, ensuring adherence to legal procedures and respect for human rights.
    • Pakistan’s Allegations: Maintain diplomatic composure and refute baseless allegations through evidence-based responses, avoiding escalation of tensions.

    Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/in-poll-season-the-perils-of-scorching-bilateral-ties/article68054471.ece