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Subject: Bilateral Relations

1. Major World Events
2. India’s Interests in neighbourhood
3. Effects of our Policies

  • India issues new advisory against fake job rackets in Myanmar, flags another ‘dangerous’ area

     

    Why in the news?

    The advisory was shared on social media by the Indian Embassy in Yangon on Monday (June 3 2024), urging caution against job offers in the Pha Lu area, south of Myawaddy town. This region has recently emerged as a hotspot where most Indian victims are being trafficked, often via Thailand.

    Highlights made by the Indian Embassy’s Advisories:

      • The embassy has issued multiple advisories warning against fake job rackets in Myanmar, highlighting the significant and ongoing threat.
      • Declared New Danger Zone: The Pha Lu area, south of Myawaddy town, has been identified as a new hotspot for trafficking, necessitating heightened vigilance. Previous advisories flagged Myawaddy, Yangon, Laukkaing, Lashio, and Tachileik as risky areas.
        • There’s been a rise in Indian nationals falling victim to crime syndicates in the Myawaddy region on the Myanmar-Thailand border.
    • On Security Issues:
      • Broader insecurity: Not just Indian nationals, but individuals from countries like Malaysia and the UAE have also been targeted by these syndicates.
      • Social Media Caution: Emphasis on avoiding job offers made through social media or unverified sources.
      • Security Worsening: The security situation in Myanmar has deteriorated since the February 2021 military coup, exacerbating human trafficking issues.
    • Consultation Urged: Indian nationals are urged to verify job offers and consult respective Indian embassies before accepting employment abroad.

    India-Myanmar Bilateral Relations:

      • India and Myanmar signed a Treaty of Friendship in 1951, and the visit of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1987 laid the foundations for a stronger relationship.

    Significance of India-Myanmar Relation:

      • Economic Cooperation: India is Myanmar’s 4th largest export market and 5th largest import partner. The bilateral trade target of $1 billion was achieved by 2017.
      • Strategic Cooperation: India’s engagement with Myanmar is motivated by a desire to counter China’s growing influence in the region and enhance its own influence and standing.
      • Security Ties: India and Myanmar have cooperated on security issues, including combating drug trafficking and insurgent groups operating in the border areas.
      • Recent Developments: India gifted Myanmar its first submarine, and the two countries have carried out joint operations against insurgent camps.

    The relationship faces challenges such as the Rohingya issue, the coup by the military junta, and the exploitation of the porous border by terrorist outfits and insurgent groups

    Way Forward:

    • Need Monitoring and Ground Surveillance: India can collaborate with social media platforms to monitor and remove fraudulent job postings and take legal action against those responsible.
    • Stronger Bilateral Cooperation: Strengthen cooperation with Myanmar and neighboring countries like Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia to crack down on human trafficking networks and facilitate the safe return of victims.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Cross-border movement of insurgents is only one of the several security challenges facing the policing of the border in North-East India. Examine the various challenges currently emanating across the India-Myanmar border. Also, discuss the steps to counter the challenges. (UPSC IAS/2019)

  • India second-biggest foreign threat to Canadian democracy: report

    Why in the news?

    A parliamentary committee report in Canada has claimed India as the second-biggest foreign threat to the country’s democracy.

    About the Khalistan Movement

    • Origins and Objectives: The Khalistan Movement is a separatist movement seeking to create an independent Sikh state called Khalistan in the Punjab region of India.
    • Activities in Canada: Canada has a significant Sikh population, and some members support the Khalistan Movement. This has led to tensions between Canadian Sikhs and the Indian government.
    • Notable Incident: The murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan ideologue, in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18, 2023, intensified these tensions.

    Historical Background

    • Canada and India established diplomatic relations in 1947. The relationship was enhanced by personal ties between Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Canadian Prime Ministers Louis St. Laurent and Lester B. Pearson in the 1940s and 1960s.
    • Canada provided significant aid to India under the “Colombo Plan”, including food aid, project financing, and technical assistance. India has been one of the largest recipients of Canadian bilateral aid, amounting to over $3.8 billion CAD.

    Recent Developments

    • India and Canada have seen significant growth in bilateral trade, reaching $8.16 billion in 2023.
    • Canada is home to over 1.2 million people of Indian origin, who are well-integrated into the mainstream and active in politics.
    • The two countries have a strategic partnership underpinned by shared values of democracy and pluralism, with regular high-level interactions and long-standing people-to-people ties.
    • India and Canada have signed several agreements, including the Air Services Agreement, Extradition Treaty, Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, and Nuclear Cooperation Agreement.

    Challenges

    • Interference Allegations: Canada claims that India has expanded its interference efforts beyond countering pro-Khalistani activities to include targeting Canadian politicians, ethnic media, and Indo-Canadian communities.
    • Mutual Suspicion: The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has also accused India of being involved in the election process in Canada, a claim denied by India.
    • Ethnic and Political Dynamics: The presence of a significant pro-Khalistan population in Canada complicates bilateral relations, with domestic politics in both countries influencing diplomatic interactions.

    India’s Stand

    • Denial of Allegations: The Indian government has consistently denied allegations of interference in Canadian affairs and the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
    • Counter-Terrorism: India views the Khalistan Movement as a terrorist threat and seeks to counter its activities both domestically and internationally.
    • Diplomatic Responses: In response to accusations from Canada, India has taken measures such as suspending visa services and issuing official statements to refute claims of interference.

    Way forward:

    • Regular Consultations: Establish a framework for regular high-level meetings between Indian and Canadian officials to address mutual concerns and prevent misunderstandings.
    • Bilateral Committees: Form joint committees to handle specific issues such as security concerns, immigration, and trade disputes.

    Mains question for practice:

    Q Discuss the origins and objectives of the Khalistan Movement and analyse the current challenges it poses to bilateral relations between India and Canada. 15M

  • Securing India’s energy transition 

    Why in the news?

    India has signed new agreements and updated existing ones with a dozen African countries to secure critical minerals. This initiative is crucial for achieving India’s energy transformation goals.

    India’s Critical Mineral Acquisition Plans in Africa

    • India has signed new agreements and updated existing ones with a dozen African countries to secure critical minerals.
    • This initiative is crucial for India’s energy transformation goals, aiming to diversify sources and reduce dependence on any single supplier.
    • The agreements are part of a broader strategy to secure access to minerals necessary for renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles.

    Demand for Energy in India and China’s Dominance

    • Energy Demand in India: India’s peak power demand increased to 250 GW in 2023-24, marking a 12.7% increase from the previous year. By 2030, India’s peak power demand is expected to reach 366 GW, up from the current level of 240 GW.
    • China’s Dominance: China leads in securing and processing critical minerals, having established long-term relationships with mineral-rich countries in Africa and Latin America. Chinese companies dominate mining rights in economically poor yet mineral-rich nations.
      • China has built significant capacities for processing and refining minerals, making it the primary global hub for critical mineral processing.

    India’s Other Overseas Critical Mineral Acquisition Plans

    • Earlier this year, India signed an agreement with Argentina to explore and develop five lithium brine blocks.
    • The Geological Survey of India (GSI) discovered inferred lithium reserves of 5.9 million tonnes in Jammu & Kashmir.
    • India aims to diversify its sources of critical minerals by securing mining leases abroad, ensuring a stable and sustainable supply chain.

    Government Initiatives to Secure Critical Minerals

    • Exploration and Geological Studies: The government is pushing for more extensive exploration and geological studies within India to identify potential reserves of critical minerals. The Geological Survey of India has been tasked with accelerating the exploration of India’s 3.2 lakh sq km land mass using new data and technologies.
    • Securing Mining Leases Abroad: India is focusing on securing mining leases in other countries to ensure a diversified supply of critical minerals. The agreements with African countries and Argentina are examples of this strategy.
    • Building Domestic Capacities: The government is providing incentives to build refining and processing capacities within India for critical minerals. There is an emphasis on attracting private miners, both domestic and global, to participate in critical mineral exploration within India.
    • Policy and Auction Reforms: The government is analyzing why auctions often fail to generate enough interest and is considering policy changes to attract big players. Coordinated efforts between the Centre and state governments on clearances and royalty payments are being emphasized to streamline the auction process.
    • White Hydrogen Exploration: There is a call for active exploration of potential White Hydrogen deposits within India’s geographical borders.

    Way forward:

    • Accelerate exploration efforts across India’s 3.2 lakh sq km land mass.
    • Utilize new data sources and advanced technologies to identify potential reserves of critical minerals.
    • Focus on unexplored areas for potential discoveries of critical minerals, including White Hydrogen deposits.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q Do you think India will meet 50 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2030? Justify your answer. How will the shift of subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables help achieve the above objectives? Explain. (UPSC IAS/2022)

  • [pib] India Hosts Digital Health Side Event at World Health Assembly

    Why in the News?

    • India hosted a side event on Digital Health during the 77th World Health Assembly.The event saw participation from Quad countries (Australia, Japan, and the United States of America) and delegates from over 100 countries.

    Key Highlights of the 7th WHA:

    • Transformative Role: India highlighted digital health’s role in ensuring equitable and accessible healthcare services, contributing to Universal Health Coverage and SDG 3.
    • India’s Advancements: WHA noted India’s success in implementing digital public infrastructure at scale, including Aadhaar for digital identities, Unified Payments Interface (UPI) for financial transactions, and Co-WIN for health service delivery during the pandemic.
    • Transition to UWIN: Co-WIN is being transformed into UWIN for the National Immunization Programme, facilitating immunization records for millions of newborns and mothers, as well as Anganwadi and school health records.
    • Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM): India highlighted efforts under ABDM to create a robust national digital health ecosystem, with over 618 million Unique Health IDs (ABHA IDs) generated, 268,000 registered health facilities, and 350,000 healthcare professionals enlisted.
    • National Health Claims Exchange (NHCX): GoI is launching NHCX as part of ABDM to transform the insurance payments ecosystem, enabling real-time settlements with auto adjudication of claims through public-private partnerships leveraging digital public infrastructure.

    About World Health Assembly (WHA):

    Details
    Establishment Established in 1948 as the decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO)
    Frequency Typically meets annually in Geneva, Switzerland
    Membership Includes all 194 member states of the WHO, as well as certain international organizations as observers
    Role and Functions
    • Setting Health Policies
    • Adoption of Resolutions
    • Reviewing Reports
    • Collaboration and Partnerships
    Decision-Making Process Decisions made by a simple majority vote of member states present and voting
    Themes and Agendas Each session focuses on specific global health priorities, addressing a wide range of health topics
    Notable Achievements Development and adoption of international health instruments and initiatives, including:

    • International Health Regulations (IHR),
    • Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC),
    • Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and
    • Global Strategy for Women’s, Children’s, and Adolescents’ Health.
    Challenges Resource constraints, geopolitical tensions, need for greater inclusivity and transparency in decision-making

     

    PYQ:

    [2016] ‘Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres)’, often in the news, is

    (a) A division of World Health Organization.

    (b) A non-governmental international organization.

    (c) An inter-governmental agency sponsored by European Union.

    (d) A specialized agency of the United Nations.

  • Forum for India–Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC)

    Why in the News?

    • India as a member of FIPIC, has pledged $1 million for relief efforts in flood-hit “Papua New Guinea” showcasing solidarity with the affected nation.

    What is the Forum for India–Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC)?

    • The Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) is a multilateral platform established by India to enhance cooperation with the Pacific Island countries.
    • FIPIC was established by India in 2014 during the first FIPIC Summit held in Suva, Fiji.
    • The initiative was announced by PM Narendra Modi as part of India’s broader “Act East” policy to strengthen engagement with the Pacific Island countries.

    Overview

    • Purpose: To enhance India’s engagement with Pacific Island nations and support their development priorities through cooperative projects and initiatives.
    • Members: Includes India and 14 Pacific Islands nations (Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu).

    Summits

    1. First Summit – Suva, Fiji (November 2014)
      • Context: Initiated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the re-establishment of democracy in Fiji.
      • Significance: The summit highlighted the geopolitical interest of major powers in the Pacific, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping visiting Fiji shortly after Modi.
    2. Second Summit – Jaipur, India (August 2015)
      • Follow-up: As a continuation of the first summit, Modi invited the leaders of the 14 Pacific Islands to Jaipur.
      • Discussions: Covered cooperation in areas such as the blue economy, oil and natural gas, IT, healthcare, fishing, and marine research. Modi also assured to address their climate change concerns at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris.
    3. Third Summit – Papua New Guinea (May 2023)
      • Current Status: Most recent summit, emphasizing ongoing cooperation and collaboration between India and the Pacific Island nations.

    Back2Basics: India’s Act East Policy

    Details
    Launched in November 2014, by PM Modi
    Objective
    • To promote economic cooperation, cultural ties, and develop a strategic relationship with countries in the Indo-Pacific region;
    • Enhancing India’s influence and economic development, especially in the North Eastern Region (NER).
    Scope
    • Extends beyond ASEAN to include East Asian countries.
    • Intensive and continuous engagement in connectivity, trade, culture, defense, and people-to-people contact at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels.
    Key Dimensions (4C’s)
    1. Culture
    2. Commerce
    3. Connectivity
    4. Capacity building
    Security Focus
    • Enhanced security cooperation, particularly in the context of Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
    • Promoting freedom of navigation and securing India’s role in the region.
    Historical Context (Look East Policy)
    • Look East Policy initiated in 1992 by Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao.
    • Focused on strengthening economic integration and cultural ties primarily with ASEAN countries.
    • Aimed to bolster India’s role as a regional power and counter China’s strategic influence.
    Evolution from Look East Policy Act East Policy is an upgrade and expansion of the Look East Policy, incorporating more comprehensive engagement strategies, including security cooperation and broader geographical focus.
    Significant Engagements
    • India’s active participation in regional forums like the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and informal groupings such as the Quad.
    • Strategic partnerships and dialogues at various international platforms.
    Major Projects Major projects under the policy include:

     

    PYQ:

    [2016] Evaluate the economic and strategic dimensions of India’s Look East Policy in the context of the post-Cold War international scenario. 

    [2011] With reference to “Look East Policy” of India, consider the following statements:

    1. India wants to establish itself as an important regional player in East Asian affairs.
    2. India wants to plug the vacuum created by the termination of Cold War.
    3. India wants to restore the historical and cultural ties with its neighbours in Southeast and East Asia.

    Which of the statements given above is / are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 1 and 3 only

    (c) 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • How Europe’s AI convention balances innovation and human rights | Explained

    Why in the News?

    Global AI governance is becoming increasingly intricate, with countries employing diverse approaches. This shows that the Global treaties may face significant challenges despite widespread support.

    About the Council of Europe (COE)

    • The COE is an intergovernmental organization established in 1949. It currently has 46 member states, including the Holy See, Japan, and the U.S., alongside EU countries.
    • Aim: To uphold human rights, democracy, and the rule of law in Europe.

    What is Europe’s AI convention?

    • Europe’s AI convention, officially known as the Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, represents a significant milestone in AI governance.
    • Adopted by the Council of Europe (COE) on May 17, this convention addresses the pressing need for comprehensive regulation of AI, particularly concerning its impact on human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.

    The scope of the Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law encompasses:

    • It ensures that activities throughout the lifecycle of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems align fully with Human Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law.
    • Consistent with the EU AI Act and the OECD’s definition, an AI system is defined as a machine-based system that generates outputs based on input to influence physical or virtual environments.

    Coverage:

    • Application by Parties: The convention applies to activities involving AI systems conducted by both public authorities and private actors acting on their behalf.
    • Addressing Risks: Parties are required to address risks and impacts from AI systems activities by private actors that are not covered under (a) in a manner consistent with the convention’s objectives.

    Difference Between a Framework Convention and a Protocol

    • Framework Convention: A legally binding treaty specifying broad commitments and objectives.Allows parties discretion in achieving objectives, adapting to their capacities and priorities.Example: Convention on Biological Diversity.
    • Protocol: Specific agreements are negotiated under a framework convention. Sets specific targets or detailed measures to achieve the broader objectives of the framework convention.Example: Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

    Addressing National Security in the AI Convention

    • Exemptions for National Security: Articles 3.2, 3.3, and 3.4 provide broad exemptions for national security interests, research, development, testing, and national defense, excluding military AI applications from the convention’s scope.
    • Balancing Flexibility and Regulation: Article 3(b) allows parties some flexibility in applying the convention to the private sector, preventing total exemption but accommodating national security needs.
    • General Obligations: Articles 4 and 5 ensure the protection of human rights, democratic integrity, and the rule of law, requiring parties to address disinformation and deep fakes as part of their national security measures.
    • Scope for Further Action: Article 22 allows parties to exceed specified commitments, enabling additional measures to address national security concerns related to AI.

    Conclusion: The AI convention is essential because it reinforces existing human and fundamental rights within the context of AI applications, rather than creating new rights. It emphasizes the need for governments to uphold these rights and implement effective remedies and procedural safeguards.

    Mains PYQ:

    Q “The emergence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Digital Revolution) has initiated e-Governance as an integral part of government”. Discuss.(UPSC IAS/2020)

  • [23 May 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: A ‘No-Limit’ bromance that is not just a bilateral matter

    PYQ Relevance:
    Mains: 
    Q) What is the significance of Indo-US defense deals over Indo-Russian defense deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (UPSC CSE 2020)

    Q) The new tri-nation partnership AUKUS is aimed at countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. Is it going to supersede the existing partnerships in the region? Discuss the strength and impact of AUKUS in the present scenario. (UPSC CSE 2021)

    Prelims:

    With reference to the ‘Trans-Pacific Partnership’, consider the following statements:  (UPSC CSE 2016)
    1. It is an agreement among all the Pacific Rim countries except China and Russia.
    2. It is a strategic alliance for the purpose of maritime security only.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 only
    (c) Both 1 and 2
    (d) Neither 1 nor 2

    Note4Students: 

    Prelims: Global Issues;

    Mains: Global Issues; Multipolar World; Russia-China Relations;

    Mentor comment: The article discusses the present “no-limits” friendship declared between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and how it is a defining feature of the emerging multipolar world order. During World War II, the world was divided into – Allied (UK, USSR, US, and China)  and Axis (Germany, Italy, and Japan). Eventually after WW II, there was again a division between the US and the USSR which came to be known as the ‘Cold War’ where India adopted its Non-aligned stand. Taking today’s article view i.e. the Russia-China Friendship, the relations between both countries date back to the 17th century, with historical conflicts and territorial disputes. However, the relationship improved significantly after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, leading to the establishment of diplomatic relations and the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. In the present context, we need to study what impact it will have on World order and of course our India also.

    Let’s learn.

    –

    Why in the News?

    Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin declared their ‘no-limits’ friendship just days before the Ukraine war began.

    • Putin, who was sworn in for his new term recently, will spend two days in China.
    • The Putin-Xi bromance is not just a bilateral affair, but a harbinger of a new world order. 

    What are the common grounds for ‘no limits’ friendship?

    • A Shared Anti-West Sentiment: Both leaders believe the West is trying to hold them back and undermine their influence. This shared grievance has brought them closer together, with Putin and Xi presenting a united front against what they see as a hostile Western world.
    • Military Cooperation: The two leaders have celebrated military cooperation, particularly during times of heightened tensions such as the US-China trade war. It includes security cooperation, emphasizing their mutual opposition to the Washington-led global consensus.
    • Economy and Trades: The structure of their bilateral trade shows that Russia mainly supplies raw materials, such as oil, natural gas, and coal, while importing manufacturing and technological products from China.
      • Russia has also been receiving loans and export credits, with the yuan’s share in the Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserves increasing significantly.
    • Strategic Partnership: The friendship between Putin and Xi is strategic, aiming to counterbalance U.S. global influence.
      • The two leaders have been attempting to put economics at the center of their strategic partnership, with Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) aiming to create a single market among Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. 

    Limitations on their ‘no limit’ friendship:

    • A Relationship of Unequals: Despite aiming for equal friendship, China’s growing economic and technological might dwarf Russia’s. This power imbalance could create tension in the relationship, especially as China’s dominance continues to grow in Central and West Asia.
      • Russia may struggle to maintain its status as an equal partner, potentially leading to friction in the alliance.
    • A Delicate Balance: Beijing may face pressure from its trading countries and internal critics to distance itself from Moscow, especially if Russia’s actions continue to attract international condemnation.

    What does it mean for the rest of the world?

    • New Multipolar System and Geoplotical Risks: Russia has recently shifted its Nuclers Policies making it questionable for European and other Western countries. This shift in power dynamics (Russia-China) could lead to a more fragmented and unstable world, with the West facing a united front from two of its most powerful adversaries. 
    • Potential Risks to Global Energy Security: Russia’s growing dependence on China as an energy export market could give China more leverage over Russia and influence global energy prices and supply.
      • Expanded Russia-China energy cooperation may undermine Western efforts to isolate Russia economically and limit its ability to wage war in Ukraine.
    • Implications for Global Gas Markets: If the power of the Siberia pipeline is completed, it could reshape global gas markets by providing a new major source of supply to China and reducing Russia’s dependence on European gas exports.
      • However, the fate of the pipeline remains uncertain, as China has refrained from committing to it so far, likely because it currently benefits from keeping the project in Limbo.

    What does it mean for India?

    • Strategic Concerns: Russia being a major supporter of the Indian defense system, India can face challenges in ensuring reliable defense supplies after the evolution of such “no limit” friendship and China-Russia cooperation.
    • Diplomatic Balancing: India aims to balance ties with Russia and West Asia to have a seamless connection with the European Union but faces challenges due to evolving Russia-China relations.
    • National Interests: India has always been a ‘big brother’ in the Asian region incorporating its Foreign Policies. Seeing the present context, India must navigate the changing geopolitical landscape, leveraging its diplomatic strengths and pursuing a clear long-term strategy.

    Conclusion: The economic interests and trade between Russia and China are critical components of their “no-limits” friendship. While their bilateral trade has grown significantly, the relationship is marked by an unequal dynamic, with China’s economic dominance over Russia growing. 

  • After Ebrahim Raisi’s death, why India will be watching Iran’s succession plan unfold

    Why in the News?

    The sudden demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves through the Islamic Republic, grappling with the implications for the country’s future leadership.

    • India is closely monitoring the unfolding of Iran’s succession plan, given the significant geopolitical and economic stakes involved.
    • India and Iran have recently signed a 10-year agreement to develop and operate a terminal at the strategic Chabahar Port, enhancing trade connections with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries.  

    BACK2BASICS: India-Iran Bilateral Relations:

      • Pre-Cold War Era:  India and Iran span centuries of relationship which is marked by meaningful interactions. Both countries shared a border till 1947 with several common features in their language, culture, and traditions. They established their diplomatic ties in March 1950.
    • Cold War Era (1950-1990): India followed its Non-alignment policy, but paralleling strong links with the Soviet Union (USSR), while Iran was an open member of the Western Bloc and enjoyed close ties with the United States.
        • Therefore, the relations between India and Iran suffered due to their differing political interests.
    • Post Cold-War Era:
        • Iran’s continuously supported Pakistan in the India–Pakistan border conflicts. This was also a major reason that India had expressed strong opposition to Iran’s Nuclear program.
        • India’s close relations with Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War greatly strained bilateral ties.
        • Oil Trade: In 2019, due to the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran, India stopped importing crude oil from the country. Before 2019, India was the second biggest buyer of oil from Iran.
        • During recent times in 2021, both countries continued to collaborate in supporting the broad-based anti-Taliban government until the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan.
    • Other Trades:
        • India-Iran bilateral trade during the FY 2020-21 was USD 2.1 billion, a decrease of 56 % as compared to USD 4.8 billion during FY 2019-20.
        • Our Exports to Iran: rice, tea, sugar, fresh fruits, drugs/pharmaceuticals, man-made staple fibers, electrical machinery, artificial jewelry etc.
        • Our Imports from Iran: dry fruits, inorganic/organic chemicals, glass and glassware, natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, leather, gypsum, etc.

    About Raisi’s Rise and Hardline Agenda:

    • Ebrahim Raisi, had politically risen through the ranks of Iran’s theocracy and was widely seen as a leading candidate to succeed.
    • His presidency was part of a broader consolidation of power by hardliners dedicated to shoring up the pillars of the Islamic Republic against dissent and external threats.
    • Raisi’s death poses significant challenges for the conservative hardliners who had backed him as a unifying figure loyal to the Supreme Leader.
    • Raisi’s demise opens the door for the ambitions of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which has exploited its constitutionally mandated roles to expand its political and economic influence.
    • Raisi’s death introduces great uncertainty into the succession process, with various factions and figures vying for influence.

    What are the potential implications of Iran’s succession plan for India?

    • Trade ties: The death of President Raisi could impact India-Iran trade relations, which reached $2.33 billion in 2023-24 under Raisi’s policies.
    • Regional stability: India has enjoyed good ties with Iran and has been involved in key projects like the development of the Chabahar port, which serves as India’s gateway to Central Asia.
      • The succession plan in Iran could affect regional stability and India’s relation to energy security and connectivity.
    • Foreign policy alignment: Changes in Iran’s stance towards regional conflicts and international agreements could influence India’s foreign policy decisions in the Middle East.
    • Security concerns: Instability or changes in Iran’s approach to regional conflicts or its relations with other countries could impact India’s security calculations.

    Way Forward

    India needs to prioritize economic projects like the Chabahar Port, which are crucial for regional trade and India’s strategic interests, ensuring long-term agreements and investments. Further, maintaining a delicate balance between US relations and Iran ties by leveraging diplomatic channels to navigate sanctions can help.

     

    Mains PYQ:

    Q In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to its situation? (UPSC IAS/2018)

    Q The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries. (UPSC IAS/2017)

  • India-China consumption comparison

    Why in the news?

    In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country, contrasting China’s declining birth rate. This prompts a comparison of their consumption patterns and geopolitical implications.

    Consumer size of India and China 

    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):

    • India’s PFCE as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher than China’s, with India spending over 58% of its GDP on consumption compared to China’s 38%.
    • Final consumption, including government expenditure, constitutes 68% of India’s GDP and 53% of China’s GDP.
    • Despite China’s larger economy, its PFCE is only about 3.5 times that of India’s, indicating a higher contribution of consumption to India’s GDP.

    Expenditure by Categories:

    • India’s consumption expenditure is characterized by higher spending on food, clothing, footwear, and transport, typical of a developing market.
    • In contrast, China’s consumption basket represents a relatively developed market, with higher spending on housing, white goods, recreation, education, and healthcare.
    • India spends approximately half of what China spends on food, transport, and clothing and footwear, despite being a fifth of China’s economy.
    • Real growth rates of individual consumption categories in India often outperform nominal growth rates observed in China.

    Conclusion: India’s higher PFCE as a percentage of GDP reflects a greater reliance on consumption-driven growth compared to China.The composition of consumption expenditure in India and China highlights differences in market maturity and consumer behavior.Despite China’s larger economy, India’s consumption expenditure is relatively significant, indicating the potential for continued growth and economic development.

    Mains PYQ

    Q The time has come for India and Japan to build a strong contemporary relationship, one involving global and strategic partnership that will have a great significance for Asia and the world as a whole. Comment. (UPSC IAS/2019)

  • [18th May 2024] The Hindu Op-ed: After the Civil War, the stifling impasse in Sri Lanka

    PYQ Relevance:
    [2022] ‘India is an age-old friend of Sri Lanka.’ Discuss India’s role in the recent crisis in Sri Lanka in light of the preceding statement. 
    [2013] In respect of India — Sri Lanka relations, discuss how domestic factors influence foreign policy. 

    Note4Students: 

    Prelims: NA 

    Mains: Disruptions in Sri Lanka’s development trajectory post the Civil War

    Mentor Comment: A decade and a half after Sri Lanka’s civil war, deep wounds persist, with tens of thousands dead and widespread destruction. Truth, accountability, and justice remain unresolved, and political polarisation hinders progress. Economic reconstruction lags, further stunted by crises. The Tamil middle class aspires to emigrate, while the working class remains destitute. 

    Let’s learn

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    Why in the News?

    The future of the Tamil people relies on creating a renewed vision for themselves and the whole nation, founded on the ideals of equality and freedom.

    Back2Basics: Sri Lankan Civil WarC:\Users\SSCIS\Desktop\Imgress\ltte.jpg
    It was a protracted armed conflict that lasted for nearly three decades, from 1983 to 2009, between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

    LTTE was a separatist militant organisation seeking an independent Tamil state in the northern and eastern regions of the island nation.
    The conflict was characterised by violence, human rights abuses, and widespread displacement of civilians.

    The LTTE, known for its guerrilla tactics and suicide bombings, controlled significant territory in the north and east of Sri Lanka and waged a violent insurgency against the government.

    Key Hindrances to Sri Lanka’s Progress

    • Limited Progress: While infrastructure like trains, banks, supermarkets, and hotels returned to the north, rural areas continue to struggle with unstable livelihoods.
    • Setback from Terror Attack: The Easter bombings in April 2019, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and an ongoing economic crisis since 2022, have exacerbated economic hardships, marking the worst crisis since Independence.
    • Economic Crisis: Economic misery is pervasive, with outmigration and hunger becoming the norm, particularly impacting the deprived and landless in war-torn areas.

    Challenges in Reconstruction Efforts

    1. Economic Challenges
    • Failed Investments: Expectations of substantial investments from the Tamil diaspora have not materialised, failing to stimulate local economic revival.
    • International Donor Projects: Projects focused on infrastructure have not effectively revitalised the local economy, while NGO aid has sometimes led to dependency and microfinance debt traps.
    1. Political Polarisation and Neglect
    • Political Neglect: Tamil political leadership has often prioritised international accountability over addressing local livelihoods, perpetuating dependency on diaspora remittances.
    • Parallel Nationalisms: Tamil nationalist politics mirrors Sinhala nationalism, focusing on rights and international intervention, rather than fostering local reconciliation.
    • Reconciliation Challenges: Efforts towards political reconciliation and power-sharing have faltered due to political expediency, exacerbating tensions and marginalising minorities.
    • Communal polarization: Relations between Tamil and Muslim communities remain strained, with unresolved issues from historical displacements and marginalization.

    Future Prospects for Tamil People

    • V. Karalasingham’s Reflections (1963): Highlighted the paradox of Tamil leadership and the continued suffering and humiliation of Tamil-speaking people.
    • Aragalaya Movement (2022): Sri Lankans united to oust a President promoting Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism, showing potential for collective action.
    • Path to Change: Embracing inclusive politics, moving away from isolationist strategies, and advocating for economic and social justice can pave the way for a democratic future based on equality and freedom.
    India’s Economic Assistance to Sri Lanka:

    Bailout Package: During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, India was quick to extend financial support, amounting to over USD 4 billion. This surpassed even the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout package over 48 months.

    Facilitating IMF Engagement: India’s role was instrumental in the early stages of Sri Lanka’s negotiations with the IMF. India’s Finance Minister, Mrs Sitharaman, played a significant part in these discussions, showcasing India’s commitment to its neighbour’s recovery.

    Private Investment: The expansion of the Colombo port’s west container terminal in 2023 by India’s Adani Group was a key development project.

    Cricket Diplomacy: Cricket surprisingly became a focal point, with international matches hosted in Sri Lanka, including a notable India-Pakistan game during the World Cup.

    Way Forward

    • Political Reconciliation: Advocate for genuine political reconciliation, including devolution of power and addressing historical grievances.
    • Community Integration: Foster solidarity and mutual understanding between ethnic and religious communities to promote social integration.
    • Local Empowerment: Support local initiatives and reduce dependency on external aid, empowering communities to drive their development.
    • Unified Movements: Promote movements that unite diverse groups towards common goals of justice, equality, and inclusive governance.

    https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/after-the-civil-war-the-stifling-impasse-in-sri-lanka/article68187672.ece