Subject: Bilateral Relations

The article analyses the threat the Arab countries faces from the new geopolitical realignment and India’s role in it.

Geopolitical realignment in the middle east

• Agreement on the normalisation of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel was signed recently.
• At the same time, there is an equally significant reorientation of the Subcontinent’s relationship with the region.
• This is marked by Pakistan’s alignment with non-Arab powers.

Deteriorating relation of Pakistan with Arab world

• Pakistan has been angry with UAE’s invitation to India to address the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in early 2019.
• Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to convene a meeting to condemn Indian actions in Kashmir last August has angered Pakistan.
• While Pakistan appears to be dreaming of a new regional alliance with Turkey and Iran.
• Pakistan is also betting that a rising China and an assertive Russia will both support this new geopolitical formation as part of their own efforts to oust America from the Middle East.

Threat to the Arab world

• Saudis and Emiratis see sharpening existential threats to their kingdoms from both Turkey and Iran.
• Both Turkey and Iran now intervene with impunity in the internal affairs of the Arab world.
• Two other states have joined this Great Game.
• Malaysia’s Mahathir fancied himself as a leader of the Islamic world.
• Arab Qatar, which is locked in a fraternal fight with the Saudis and the Emiratis, wants to carve out an outsized role for itself in the Middle East.

India’s should follow five principles for Arab Sovereignty

• 1) India must resist the temptation of telling the Arabs what is good for them.
• India should support their efforts to reconcile with non-Arab neighbours, including Israel, Turkey and Iran.
• 2) Oppose foreign interventions in the Arab world. In the past, those came from the West and Israel.
• Today, most Arabs see the greatest threat to their security from Turkish and Iranian interventions.
• 3) Extend support to Arab economic integration, intra-Arab political reconciliation and the strengthening of regional institutions.
• 4) Recognise that India’s geopolitical interests are in close alignment with those in the moderate Arab Centre — including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman.
• 5) India can’t be passive amidst the unfolding geopolitical realignment in West Asia.
• Some members of the incipient alliance — Turkey, Malaysia and China — have been the most vocal in challenging India’s territorial sovereignty in Kashmir.

Consider the question “Examine the importance of India’s relations with Arab countries. What are the threats the region faces to their sovereignty and how India can play an important role to ensure their sovereignty.”

Conclusion

Standing up for Arab sovereignty and opposing the forces of regional destabilisation must be at the very heart of India’s new engagement with the Middle East.

India has been maintaining strategic autonomy in its foreign policy since Independence. But the end of Cold War and growing closeness towards the U.S. raises concerns. This article addresses this issue.

India’s foreign policy: characterised by autonomy

• India has historically prided itself as an independent developing country which does not take orders from or succumb to pressure from great powers.
• Indian maintained this stance in its foreign policy when the world order was bipolar from 1947 to 1991, dominated by the U.S. and Russia.
• Also, when the world was unipolar from 1991 to 2008, dominated by the U.S.
• Or when it is multipolar as at the present times.
• The need for autonomy in making foreign policy choices has remained constant.

Flexibility in foreign policy

• However, strategic autonomy has often been adjusted in India’s history as per the changing milieu.
• During the 1962 war with China, Prime Minister Nehru, had to appeal to the U.S. for emergency military aid.
• In the build-up to the 1971 war with Pakistan, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had to enter a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union to ward off both China and the U.S.
• And in Kargil in 1999, India welcomed a direct intervention by the U.S. to force Pakistan to back down.
• In all the above examples, India did not become any less autonomous when geopolitical circumstances compelled it to enter into de facto alliance-like cooperation with major powers.
• Rather, India secured its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity by manoeuvering the great power equations and playing the realpolitik game.

Concerns over India’s growing closeness to the U.S.

• As India is facing China’s growing aggression along the LAC, Non-alignment 2.0 with China and the U.S. makes little sense.
• Fears that proximity to the U.S. will lead to loss of India’s strategic autonomy are overblown.
• Because independent India has never been subordinated to a foreign hegemon.

What should be India’s strategy

• In the threat environment marked by a pushy China, India should aim to have both- American support and stay as an independent power centre by cooperation with middle powers in Asia and around the world.
• For India complete dependence on the U.S. to counter China would be an error.
• Such complete dependence would be detrimental to India’s national interest such as its ties with Iran and Russia and efforts to speed up indigenous defence modernisation.
• A wide and diverse range of strategic partners, including the U.S. is the only viable diplomatic way forward in the current emerging multipolar world order.

Consider the question “Does India’s close alignment with the U.S. harms its strategic autonomy? Suggest the strategy to balance India’s security concerns and maintaining strategic autonomy.”

Conclusion

We are free and self-reliant not through isolation or alliance with one great power, but only in variable combinations with several like-minded partners. India is familiar with the phrase ‘multi-vector’ foreign policy. It is time to maximise its potential.

This article analyses what the new shift in the India-U.S. ties will require for the mutual benefit.

Following 12 factors would influence the depth and longevity of the India-U.S. ties.

1) Outcome of the  U.S. Presidential elections

• The success of India’s new bonding with the U.S. will depend on the outcome of the U.S. Presidential elections.
• The Democratic party candidate with the Left wing and liberals in the U.S. has been highly critical of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

2) Need to build trust with the U.S.

• India purchased of the S-400 air defence missile system from Russia disregarding the U.S. concerns.
• India refused to send Indian troops to Afghanistan.
• We need to build trust with the U.S. that we will give to the U.S. as good as it gives us.
• For this structuring we must realise that India-U.S. relations require give and take on both sides.
• What India needs to take today is for dealing with the Ladakh confrontation with China.
• India needs U.S. hardware military equipment.

3)  Fighting the U.S. enemy in neighbourhood

• The U.S. needs India to fight her enemies in the neighbourhood such as in Afghanistan.
• India should send two divisions gradually to Afghanistan and relieve U.S. troops to go home

4) Intelligence sharing and cooperation

• India needs the support of the U.S. and its ally, Israel, in cyberwarfare, satellite mappings of China and Pakistan.
• There is a need for sharing intercepts of electronic communication, hard intelligence on terrorists, and controlling the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan.

5) Developing naval bases

• India needs the U.S. to completely develop the Andaman & Nicobar, and also the Lakshadweep Islands as a naval and air force base.
• These naval bases can be used by the U.S  and shared along with its allies such as Indonesia and Japan.

6) Economic relations and India’s concerns

• The economic relations must be based on macroeconomic commercial principles.
• Free, indiscriminate flow of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) is not in India’s national interest.

7) Technology sharing

• India needs technologies such as thorium utilisation, desalination of sea water, and hydrogen fuel cells.

8) U.S. should allow import of agricultural product

• The U.S. must allow India’s exports of agricultural products including Bos indicus milk, which are of highly competitive prices in the world.

9) FDI in India

• FDI should be allowed into India selectively from abroad, including from the U.S.
• FDI in India should be based on the economic theory of comparative advantage and not on subsidies and gratis.

10) Tariffs

• Tariffs of both India and the U.S. should be lowered, and the Indian rupee should be gradually revalued to ₹35 to a dollar.
• Later, with the economy picking up, the rupee rate should go below 10 to the dollar.

11) Stay away from certain issues

•  India should not provide the U.S. with our troops to enter Tibet, or be involved in the Hong Kong and Taiwan issue.
• There is always a possibility of a leadership change in China.
• Thus, China’s policy changed very favourably towards India.
• In the cases of Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, we have made explicit agreements.
• In the case of Tibet, two formal treaties were signed by Nehru (1954) and A.B. Vajpayee (2003).

12) Trilateral commitment to world peace

• In the long run, India, the U.S., and China should form a trilateral commitment for world peace provided Chinese current international policies undergo a healthy change.

Consider the question “What are the factors influencing the India-U.S. ties? Suggest the pathway to address the issues that hamper the deepening of India-U.S. ties.”

Conclusion

Both countries need to recognise each other’s concern and work towards the deepening of the ties for the mutual benefit and with a view to dealing with the challenges confronting both the countries.

The economic grip China exerts on the world protects it from the threat of isolation. This article examines this issue and its implications for India.

Worsening U.S.-China ties and implications for other countries

• After years of cooperating with one another, the U.S. and China are currently at the stage of confrontation.
• Both are seeking allies to join their camps.
• This places several countries in Asia, in a difficult position as most of them, loathe to take sides.
• The U.S. may not necessarily be the first choice for many countries of Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.
• In the case of China, it is clearly more feared than loved.

China’s aggression

•  Beijing’s virtual takeover of Hong Kong has only confirmed what had long been known about China’s intentions.
• In March-April this year, China further stepped up its aggressive actions, renaming almost 80 geographical features in the region as an index of Chinese sovereignty.
•  Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea have all complained about China’s menacing postures in their vicinity.

How countries are resisting China

• Hardly any country in Asia is willing to openly confront China, and side with the U.S.
• East Asian countries explain that China was always known to be over-protective of the South China Sea.
• And China consider South China Sea a natural shield against possible hostile intervention by outside forces inimical to it.
• No U.S. assurance and Chinese aggression has been enough to make countries in the region openly side with the U.S. and against China.

China’s economic grip and lessons for India

• Despite a series of diktats from Washington to restrict economic and other relations, China remains unfazed.
• China seems confident that its stranglehold on the global economy ensures that it does not face any real challenge.
• It would be wise for India to recognise this.
• It is equally necessary to realise how fickle some of these countries can be when it comes to economic issues.
•  At a recent meeting in Washington Australia (a member of the Quad) made it clear that China is important for Australia.
• Likewise, the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, recently stated in its Parliament, that the U.K. wants a positive relationship with China.
• It is evident that few nations across the world are willing to risk China’s ire because of strong economic ties.

India’s relations with neighbouring countries: concerns

• India’s relations with Nepal, meanwhile, have hit a roadblock over the Kalapani area.
• In Sri Lanka, the return of the Rajapaksas to power after the recent elections does not augur too well for India-Sri Lanka relations.
• The strain in India-Bangladesh relations is a real cause for concern since it can provide a beachhead against Chinese activities in the region.

Growing Chinese presence in India’s sphere of influence

•  In July, the Chinese Foreign Minister organised a virtual meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• In this meeting, China proposed economic corridor plan with Nepal, styled as the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.
• China has also made headway in Iran to an extent, again at India’s expense.

Conclusion

Geo-balancing is not happening to China’s disadvantage. This lesson must be well understood when India plan its future strategy.