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Subject: Economics

  • In news: Srisailam Dam

    The major fire accident at the Srisailam hydroelectric power station has resulted in heavy loss of lives.

    Try this PYQ:

    What is common to the places known as Aliyar, Isapur and Kangsabati? (CSP 2019)

    (a) Recently discovered uranium deposits

    (b) Tropical rain forests

    (c) Underground cave systems

    (d) Water reservoirs

    About Srisailam Dam

    • The Srisailam Dam is constructed across the Krishna River in Kurnool district, AP near Srisailam temple town.
    • It is the 2nd largest capacity working hydroelectric station in the country.
    • The dam was constructed in a deep gorge in the Nallamala Hills in between Kurnool and Mahabubnagar districts, 300 m (980 ft) above sea level.
    • It has a reservoir of 616 square kilometres.

  • Three areas to work on to put India on the path to growth

    The article suggests the three areas on which country should work on to make it resilient in the future. These three areas include the labour laws for informal employment, conditions of our cities and the strength of our rural economy.

    Background

    • The Prime Minister, while addressing the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) annual meeting urged to think big and partner with the government in putting India on the path to growth.
    • There is much that we can be achieved if government and industry work towards the same objective, and in a spirit of mutual trust.

    Let’s look into some areas

    1) Employment

    • Over 85 per cent of employment in India is in the informal sector.
    • The Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates that between mid-March and mid-April, 120 million people lost their jobs.
    • With this unemployment rise to an all-time high of 27 per cent.
    • There was reverse migration on an unprecedented scale — some 10 million people abandoned cities to return to their native villages.
    • As economic activity has restarted in cities, CMIE reports that unemployment is now down to around 9 per cent.

    3 Problems we must address

    1) Need for labour regulation

    • We have stringent labour laws to protect workers, but this covers only the 15 per cent formal sector employment.
    • The 85 per cent of our workforce who are informally employed have almost no protection, and employers have almost complete flexibility.
    • We need to address both the formal and informal labour spectrum to get the balance right between flexibility and protection for all labour.

    Way forward

    • Everyone must have a minimum level of protection, and every employer a minimum level of flexibility.
    • This calls for a new social contract to define a well-calibrated social security system.
    • This huge project demands good faith and strong leadership by industry, labour and government.

    2) Living conditions of our cities

    • We need a massive private home-building programme.
    • It probably needs much more liberal land-use regulations — our cities have among the least generous floor-space indices (FSI) in the world.
    • New York, Hong Kong, and Tokyo have an FSI five times Mumbai’s.
    • Again, this is a multi-year project, and it involves state and city governments partnering with private developers.
    • India is unique in having 70 per cent of our population still residing in rural areas.
    • We must encourage the migration of people to higher productivity occupations in our cities.
    • And we must ensure that clean, affordable and accessible housing is available for all in our cities.

    3) Strength of our rural economy

    • Reverse migration is also an opportunity to collaborate in spreading the geography of development.
    • We need a three-pronged approach:
    • 1) As Ashok Gulati has often argued, the easiest way to grow farmer incomes is by having them grow more value-added crops.
    • Exports of fruits and vegetables must be consistently encouraged.
    • The cultivation of palm plantations with potential for huge import substitution, we need corporate farming as the gestation period of seven years for the first crop is too much for the average farmer to handle.
    • The Atmanirbhar agricultural reforms, which permit contract farming, and open up agricultural markets, are major medium-term reforms. Implemented right, they can transform agricultural markets.
    • 2) We need to encourage agro-processing near the source.
    • Fostering entrepreneurship in rural and semi-urban areas would combine nicely with local processing.
    • 3) We need to invest even more massively in rural connectivity.
    • Today, we would add digital connectivity to road connectivity to level the playing field for all regardless of where they live.

    Consider the question “What are the vulnerabilities in our economic structure that were highlighted by the covid pandemic? Also suggest the measures to make our rural economy strong and resilient to such shocks.”

    Conclusion

    The task is huge, and only collaboration between all levels of government (Union, state, and city) and our dynamic private sector can hope to make substantial progress.

  • Online Pharmacy Regulation in India

    In the last week, India’s online pharmacy market saw two significant merger and acquisition deals. This has suddenly caused activity in a sector from which large investors have shied away due to lack of proper regulations.

    Try this easy question:

    Q. Discuss the prospects and benefits of online pharmacy in India. (150W)

    How is the pharmacy market in India currently shaped?

    • Unlike the US, where the top three pharmaceutical distributors have a 90 per cent share in the market, India’s is a fragmented market with over 8 lakh pharmacies.
    • This gives online pharmacies an opportunity to capture their space without opposing large traditional retailers.
    • Currently, companies in the Indian e-pharmacy space mainly operate three business models — marketplace, inventory-led hybrid (offline/online) and franchise-led hybrid (offline/online) — depending on the way the supply chain is structured.

    Rules governing the pharma sector

    • Work on regulations specifically for e-pharmacies has been in progress for several years now.
    • In the absence of clear regulations, online pharmacies currently operate as marketplaces and cater to patients as a platform for ordering medicines from sellers that adhere to the Drugs and Cosmetics Act and Rules of India.
    • Other regulations, like the Information Technology Act and the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, also apply.

    What do the draft e-pharmacy regulations propose?

    • Draft rules for e-pharmacies sought to define the online sale of medicines, what an e-prescription means and what type of licences online firms would need to get from regulators to operate.
    • The draft had proposed to allow e-pharmacies to get a central licence to operate from the country’s apex drug regulator, which could be used to allow it to operate across the country.
    • It also proposed to define e-pharmacies in a way that would allow them to distribute, sell and stock medicines.
    • The proposed regulations prevent them from selling habit-forming drugs like cough syrups specified in Schedule X of the Indian drug regulations.

    Current status

    • Regulations for online pharmacy players have been in the works since 2016 but are yet to come out.
    • The last attempt to clear these regulations saw the draft rules being pushed through two expert committees under the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation–India’s apex drug regulatory body–in June 2019.

    Online pharma is growing in scale

    • While Covid-19 and the subsequent behavioural shift towards e-commerce may have catalyzed growth for online pharmacies, the sector was already poised to grow seven-fold by 2023 to $2.7 billion.
    • This was mainly on account of the challenges faced by physical pharmacies that gave their online counterparts a problem to solve.
    • Experts believe that e-pharmacies will be able to solve the problems that traditional pharmacies couldn’t.
    • But for this, they need to have a large-scale presence that calls for either huge investments or consolidation.

    Conclusion

    • The e-pharmacy sector holds immense potential to address the persisting issue of affordability and accessibility of medicines in India.
    • Steps should be taken to foster the e-pharmacy sector with sufficient safeguards and under regulatory control to protect the interest of the consumers.

  • A dicey dollar could yet revive Keynes’s Bancor currency plan

    The direct question in the exam from this article is not expected. Nevertheless, it is important to get a general understanding of the important role dollar plays in the world economy and the reasons for any viable alternative to it.

    Context

    • The dollar fell in July to a two-year low against the euro.
    • When the covid-19 pandemic went global in March, the dollar strengthened on the back of safe-haven flows into US Treasury bonds.

    What the depreciation of dollar indicate?

    • The dollar’s subsequent depreciation reflects the changing prospects of the US and European economies.
    • Some observers point instead to the agreement by European leaders to issue €750 billion ($884 billion) of European Union (EU) bonds.
    • With the spread of covid-19 investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates low for longer.
    • In the eurozone, the virus is under better control, and data from purchasing managers’ surveys are surprising on the upside.
    • This improving outlook doesn’t mean that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start raising its policy rate in the near future.
    • Interest rates determine the exchange rates as per the “interest parity” theory.

    Factors responsible for holding currency

    • 1) Normally, investors hold a currency when the issuer’s policies are sound and stable.
    • 2) Banks and firms hold a currency when it is useful for invoicing and settling trade with the issuing country.
    • But President Donald Trump’s administration has done more than any in living memory to disrupt US trade.
    • 3) Governments, for their part, hold and use the currencies of their alliance partners.

    Resilience of dollar

    • The most striking takeaway from recent experience is the dollar’s resilience.
    •  US policy has been risky and erratic.
    •  But President Donald Trump’s administration has done more than any in living memory to disrupt US trade.
    • Under Trump, the US today is no longer the reliable alliance partner it once was.
    • Despite all this, countries continue to hold the dollar.
    • The currency’s international role has not diminished significantly.
    • It has declined only along select dimensions—its share in central banks’ foreign-exchange reserves, for example—and even there, only marginally.

    No alternative

    • The euro is not an alternative to the dollar.
    • The stock of safe euro assets remains segmented along national lines.
    • Nor is the renminbi a viable alternative.
    • Given heightened tensions with China, no Western government will encourage its residents to depend on the People’s Bank of China for liquidity.

    Conclusion

    The only solution to this conundrum is more resources for the International Monetary Fund, so that it can supply countries in a crisis with the dollars that a future Fed fails to provide. This, of course, is the solution that John Maynard Keynes offered in 1944, albeit by another name-Bancor.

  • Job Losses during Lockdown

    The data by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) briefs us about the job losses due to lockdown restrictions imposed because of the COVID pandemic.

    We can utilize this data as examples for answer writing.

    CMIE data on job losses

    • Salaried jobs: They suffered the biggest hit during the lockdown, with a total loss estimated to be at 18.9 million during April-July.
    • Informal and non-salaried jobs: They have shown improvement during the same period increasing to 325.6 million in July from 317.6 million last year, an increase of 2.5 per cent.
    • Small traders, hawkers and daily wage labourers: They were the worst hit by the lockdown in April, comprising 91.2 million of the jobs lost from the total loss of 121.5 million in that month.
    • Farm employment: A sharp rise was seen in June to 130 million, with good rains and the consequent sowing absorbing a lot of the labour that was lost in non-farm sectors.

    About CMIE

    • CMIE, or Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, is a leading business information company.
    • It was established in 1976, primarily as an independent think tank.
    • CMIE produces economic and business databases and develops specialised analytical tools to deliver these to its customers for decision making and for research.
    • It analyses the data to decipher trends in the economy.

  • Digital Quality of Life Index, 2020

    India ranks among the lowest in the world in terms of Internet quality, according to the Digital Quality of Life Report.

    Note the following aspects:

    1)Organisation publishing the report

    2)India’s rank and its comparison with neighbors

    3)Rankers at the top

    Digital Quality of Life Index

    • It is global research released by online privacy solutions provider SurfShark.
    • It releases a report on the quality of digital wellbeing in 85 countries (81% of the global population), in terms of e-infrastructure.

    India’s ranking: Hits and Misses

    • India occupies 79th place, ranking below countries including Guatemala and Sri Lanka.
    • India makes it into the top 10 in terms of Internet affordability. With a ranking of nine, it outperforms countries such as the U.K., the U.S. and China.
    • Additionally, when it comes to e-government, India occupies the 15th place globally, just below countries like New Zealand and Italy.
    • However, at position 78, India’s Internet quality is one of the lowest across 85 countries analysed in the research.

    Global rankings

    • The report found that seven of the 10 countries with the highest digital quality of life are in Europe, with Denmark leading among 85 countries.
    • Canada stands out as a country with the highest digital quality of life in the Americas, while Japan takes the leading position in Asia.
    • Among the countries in Africa, people in South Africa enjoy the highest quality of digital lives whereas New Zealand leads in Oceania, outperforming Australia in various digital areas.

  • Dilemma the RBI faces

    Limitations and contradictions in the functioning of RBI

    • The Reserve Bank of India, along with the monetary policy committee, has undertaken measures to address the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Their actions are guided by multiple considerations — inflation and growth management, debt management and currency management.
    • These multiple considerations have inadvertently exposed the limitations of and the inherent contradictions in the central banking framework in India.

    Monetary policy functions

    • The MPC is guided by the goal of maintaining inflation at 4 plus/minus 2 per cent.
    • In its August policy, despite dire growth prospects, MPC chose to maintain the status quo.
    • This decision was driven by elevated inflation i.e. above 4 plus/minus 2 per cent. 
    • This raises the question: At the current juncture, should the MPC be driven by growth considerations or should short-term inflation concerns dominate?

    Understanding the nature of current inflation

    • The current rise in inflation is driven by supply-chain dislocations owing to the lockdowns.
    • This is evident from the growing disconnect between the wholesale and consumer price index.
    • Since April, while WPI has been in negative territory, CPI has been elevated.
    • The MPC’s mandate is to deliver stable inflation over long periods of time, not just a few months.
    • Yet, it would appear as if it is more concerned about elevated inflation in the short run.
    • Equally puzzling is the refusal of MPC to provide any firm projection of future inflation.

    Manager of government debt

    •  As manager of the government debt, the RBI is tasked with ensuring that the government’s borrowing programme sails through smoothly.
    • To this end, it has carried out several rounds of interventions popularly known as operation twist.
    • in operation twist government RBI intended pushing down long-term Gsec yields, and exerting upward pressure on short-term yields as a consequence.
    • In doing so, the RBI ended up doing exactly the opposite of what the MPC was trying to achieve by cutting short term rates, well before it reached the lower limit of its conventional policy response.

    3) RBI’s intervention in currency markets

    • The RBI’s interventions in the currency market have constrained its ability to carry out open market operations as these would have led to further liquidity injections into the system.
    • Put differently, its debt management functions have run up against its currency management functions.
    • Underlining the complexity of all this is the talk of sterilisation — the opposite of injecting liquidity in the system.

    Consider the question “RBI’s functions at the current juncture suffers from contradicting functions. Examine such contradictions in its role and suggest the ways to avoid such contradictions.”

    Conclusion

    The central bank must develop a clear strategy on what to do. At this juncture, there is a strong argument to look past the current spurt in inflation, and test the limits of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. At the other end, while it may want to intervene to prevent the rupee’s appreciation, in doing so, it is constricting its debt management functions which will have its own set of consequences. There are no easy answers.

  • Re-imagining and reinventing the Indian economy

    The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy and India is no different.  Besides the stimulus package totalling ₹20 lakh crore, a lot more needs to be done, however, to resuscitate the country’s growth engine.

    Try this question:

    Q.Economic reconstruction needs a multi-pronged strategy apart from economic stimulus. Discuss.

    Need for a two-pronged strategy

    • At this critical juncture, India needs a two-pronged strategy to successfully navigate the current crisis and recover strongly thereafter.
    • First, minimise the damage caused by the COVID and clear a path to recovery and second, rebooting and re-imaging India by promptly exploiting new opportunities unleashed by evolving business scenarios.

    Identifying the four major economic drivers:

    1. Big Business Houses which are a major contributor to GDP and large employment generators
    2. MSMEs which are the lifeline of the country, generating wealth for the middle class
    3. Startups which bring innovation and transformation to our country’s economy
    4. Approaching Indian Diasporas for driving foreign investments

    Following suggestions by the author gives a way forward strategy to recover the economy:

    1. Tax incentivization

    • Big business houses should be supported by the government to reopen their operations by way of tax incentives or ease of procurement of raw materials or other goods and services on credit.
    • This will energize consumer demand and boost the functioning of the vendor or ancillary industry in the MSME sector (which has huge potential for job creation).

    1. Ensuring seamless credit flows considering NPAs

    • The RBI should consider Single One Time Window for restructuring business loans, as required, by all banks.
    • There is a high probability that non-performing assets are likely to rise once the prevailing moratorium is lifted by RBI.
    • The government and RBI also urgently need to assure banks, that their business decisions will not be questioned, to encourage credit flows.

    1. Calibrating Make in India

    • The ongoing distrust on Chinese manufacturing amid US-China spat can be very well garnered by India.
    • Making India a global trading hub – devise an incentive regime for companies setting up global trading operations from India.
    • The govt. should think of establishing self-contained “industrial cities” that earmark space for manufacturing, commercial, educational, residential and social infrastructure.
    • The Centre can prepare a five-year plan on getting at least 60 per cent of those companies, desiring to move manufacturing out of China to India.

    1. Encouraging sunrise sectors

    • It should also encourage sunrise sectors as part of re-imagining Indian economy such as battery manufacturing (storage systems)/ solar panel manufacturing.
    • The government can also consider giving impetus to “Deep Tech”-leveraged businesses — blockchain, robotics, AI, machine learning, augmented reality, big data analytics, cybersecurity, etc.

    1. Creating an ecosystem to boost startups

    • India is amongst the top start-up ecosystems globally. Several of them are in pre-Angel or Angel-Funding stages and are under significant pressure to stay afloat in view of a lack of adequate liquidity.
    • Start-ups not only help drive innovation but also create jobs, which will be very important going forward.
    • The government needs to provide significant support to the start-up ecosystem.

    1. Auto-sector reforms

    • The auto industry which contributes significantly to GDP (nearly 9%) deserves special treatment.
    • In addition to reducing GST rate, old vehicle scrap policy with tax incentives for creating a demand for new vehicles may be formulated.
    • There is a need to recognise the Auto Sales Industry channel partners as MSMEs.

    1. Plug-and-Play model for foreign investment

    • Maharashtra has created a turnkey ‘plug-and-play’ model for foreign investors.
    • Similarly, other States must get their act together, be it on land acquisition, labour laws and providing a social, environment and other infrastructure.
    • Land should be made available for projects with all necessary pre-clearances — at Centre’s level (including Environmental), State’s and Municipal dispensations.

    1. Labour law reforms

    • Reforms in labour laws do not only mean permission to hire and fire.
    • Leeway should be given to strictly enforce discipline within the factory premises and demand higher productivity.
    • The moves by U.P., M.P. and Gujarat are welcome signals.
    • The government should provide health insurance for migrant labourers as experimented by certain States.

    1. Encouraging Diaspora

    • Investments of NRIs and OCIs in India should be treated on par with those of Resident Indians as regards interest and dividend repatriation and management control of Indian companies.
    • It may be mentioned that the Chinese government had called on rich overseas Chinese to invest in China with minimum government control, and massive investments followed.
    • This has contributed to China’s prosperity and economic rise.
    • A similar investment boom can take place in India through NRIs and OCIs who have the resources and expertise in manufacturing and technology.

    1. Creating off-Shore investment centres

    • Off-Shore investment centres like Singapore can be opened in Mumbai where Indian domestic laws and taxation will not be applicable.
    • MNCs may route their investments into India through the Off-Shore Centre in Mumbai.
    • Foreign legal firms and banks along with domestic institutions can be invited to have a presence in the Off-Shore Centre.

  • Power sector reforms

    This article analyses the issue of affordability of electricity in the country and the factors making it expensive.

    How recent changes increased subsidy burden

    •  Recent policy measures like the the “Saubhagya” scheme have remarkably improved the first 3 ‘A’s, i.e., awareness, accessibility and availability.
    •  It has also increased the cost of supply due to an increase in LT distribution network length necessitating more conductors, meters, transformers, etc.
    • Most of the newly-added consumers are from rural areas of low-income states like UP and Bihar.
    • They belong to subsidised consumer categories, viz. agriculture, rural-domestic, etc.
    • Thus, the subsidy burden of respective state governments has increased.

    Affordability of subsidy by States

    • The state’s capacity to service power subsidy of its BPL consumers is dependent on its per capita income which varies from state to state.
    •  The central government provides no subsidy for this purpose.
    • Therefore, making electricity affordable for consumers becomes a priority for the power sector.
    •  Limiting focus only to reduction of the cross-subsidy burden of industries may not be fruitful.

    Policy steps to make electricity affordable

    1) Expedite overdue distribution reforms

    • While generation and transmission sectors have been unbundled, unbundling (segregation of carrier and content business) of distribution has been started yet.
    • Privatisation of, and governance reforms in, state-owned distribution companies are likely to unlock huge value and provide efficiency gains through loss reduction for making power affordable.

    2) Capping of stranded capacity charges

    • As of now, we have surplus installed capacity of around 370 GW against a peak demand of 183 GW.
    • So, any fresh capacity addition should be limited to projected load demand growth and replacement of retiring power plants.
    • This will reduce the stranded capacity charges the discoms are currently paying to gencos under their long-term power purchase agreements without taking any power from them under availability-based tariff regime.

    3) Scrap cost-plus regime

    • Now, when the country has sufficient installed capacity, it makes no sense to provide a risk-free 15.5% tax-free (or 22% after-tax) return on equity to the power companies.
    • No new project (except hydro and nuclear) should be allowed on cost-plus route or MoU route under section 62 of the Electricity Act.

    4) Restructure normative debt-equity financing to 80:20

    • At present, the regulatory norm used for tariff computation of projects is 70:30 debt: equity.
    • Debt servicing is limited only to the term of the loan, i.e., up to 12 years, but Return of Equity is allowed in perpetuity even after the plant has fully depreciated.
    • This needs to be limited to the useful life of the unit.

    5) No double-whammy for consumers:

    • National Clean Energy Fund was created as a non-lapsable fund in 2010 for promoting clean technology, and since then around Rs 1 lakh crore has been collected from coal cess.
    • However, most of it has been diverted and used for other purposes like funding to states for their GST losses, etc.
    • Asking gencos to install Fuel Gas Desulfurization and pass on the cost to the consumer amounts to a double whammy for the consumers who first paid the coal-cess and now will have to bear the FGD cost also.
    • We should stop using cess as a tax and NCEF should be used to fund the clean energy initiative and FGD installation etc.

    Consider the question “What are the factors responsible for making the electricity costly in India. Suggest the pathways to make it affordable to all.”

    Conclusion

    Making electricity affordable following these steps would be instrumental in the progress of the nation.

    Source: https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/powering-reforms-bringing-power-psus-under-competitive-bidding-will-help-in-tariff-reduction/2057940/

    B2BASICS

    Electricty generation,transmission and Distribution

    Saubhagya scheme

  • [pib] Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0

    As part of Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, announced by the Government, the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0   was launched to provide Portfolio Guarantee for purchase of Bonds or Commercial Papers (CPs) with a rating of AA and below issued by NBFCs/HFCs/ MFIs by Public Sector Banks (PSBs).

    Try this PYQ:

    When the Reserve Bank of India reduces the Statutory Liquidity Ratio by 50 basis points, which of the following is likely to happen? (CSP 2015)

    (a) India’s GDP growth rate increases drastically

    (b) Foreign Institutional Investors may bring more capital into our country

    (c) Scheduled Commercial Banks may cut their lending rates

    (d) It may drastically reduce the liquidity to the banking system

    About Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS)

    • Under the scheme, any PSB can purchase securities (minimum rating of ‘AA’) of financially-sound non-banking finance companies.
    • The objective is to address temporary asset-liability mismatches of otherwise solvent NBFCs/Housing finance companies (HFCs) without having to resort to distress sale of their assets to meet their commitments.
    • The government will provide a one-time, six months’ partial credit guarantee to public sector banks for first loss of up to 10%.
    • Also, these NBFCs/HFCs are mandated that the CRAR (capital to risk-weighted assets ratio) shall not go below the regulatory minimum while exercising of the option to buy back the assets.

    What is CRAR?

    • CRAR also known as Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is the ratio of a bank’s capital to its risk.
    • CRAR is decided by central banks and bank regulators to prevent commercial banks from taking excess leverage and becoming insolvent in the process.
    • The Basel III norms stipulated a capital to risk-weighted assets of 8%.
    • In India, scheduled commercial banks are required to maintain a CAR of 9% while Indian public sector banks are emphasized to maintain a CAR of 12% as per RBI norms.
    • It is arrived at by dividing the capital of the bank with aggregated risk-weighted assets for credit risk, market risk, and operational risk.
    • RBI tracks CRAR of a bank to ensure that the bank can absorb a reasonable amount of loss and complies with statutory Capital requirements.
    • The higher the CRAR of a bank the better capitalized it is.