💥Join UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (August Batch) + XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Subject: International Relations

  • India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is good for both countries

    UK

    Context

    • The ties between India and the UK are often described as a Living Bridge, a dynamic economic force of people, businesses and ideas. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi drives forward plans to make India a developed nation within the next 25 years and the UK forges deeper trade relationships around the globe, our connections are growing stronger every day.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    Background: How India-UK trade relationship taking shape in recent time?

    • Enhanced trade relationship: India and the UK are two of the largest economies on the planet. Economic relationship between the two is reaching new heights with an enhanced trade partnership.
    • Minimised trade barriers: Both have lowered several trade barriers, pledged to bring down many more and set an ambitious target to double the value of India-UK trade by 2030.
    • Opening up opportunities in UK: Since then, Indian firms, including established businesses and recent startups, have been finding opportunities in the UK.
    • Business and investment in India: British businesses in fields ranging from food to financial services are expanding and investing in India. The car manufacturer, McLaren, which has just opened a showroom in Mumbai, is one example.
    • FTA’s beneficial for future and mutual growth: An India-UK free trade agreement is a natural next step for both, bringing two nations with extraordinary plans for their futures closer still.

    UK

    What are Free trade agreements (FTA)?

    • Free trade agreements are agreements between the two or more countries or trading blocks that primarily agrees to eliminate or reduce customer tariff and non-tariff barriers on substantial trade between them.

    Importance of Free Trade Agreements

    • FTA include multiple trade aspects: FTAs cover a wide array of topics such as tariff reduction impacting the entire manufacturing and the agricultural sector; rules on services trade; digital issues such as data localization; intellectual property rights that may have an impact on the accessibility of drugs; and investment promotion, facilitation, and protection.
    • Great impact on economy and society: Consequently, an FTA has a far-reaching impact on the economy and society. Given this, one legitimately expects transparency and greater scrutiny of the FTA process both during and after the negotiations.

    UK

    How a Free trade agreement with UK will benefit India?

    • Greater market access works both ways: Prime Minister Modi has urged Indian businesses to export their products to the world with “zero-effect, zero-defect”. In other words, high-quality goods with no environmental impact. A free trade agreement between our nations could further help achieve this target. It would help Indian firms to sell to a market that imported almost £820 billion of goods and services from around the world in the last 12 months on record.
    • UK will aid in the ongoing India’s economic progress: The Indian economy’s future is an exciting one, with the prospect of new technologies, growing businesses and better jobs for its citizens. The UK has the skills and experience to aid this progress. A deal that’s right for both could make it cheaper and easier for ambitious Indian businesses to tap into this expertise. It is also only right that the millions of SMEs that power India’s economy benefit from a deal.
    • Investment in one another’s economy will multiply the opportunities: The British cybersecurity solutions firm, Telesoft Technologies, has just said it will pump £10 million into its India subsidiary over the next five years supporting a growing telecoms sector. A free trade agreement that smooths British and Indian firms’ path to invest in one another’s economy would mean such opportunities multiply.
    • FTA can be a force of primary economic growth in uncertain times: A free trade agreement’s value cannot be measured entirely in rupees and pounds. Covid-19’s impact on supply chains, slow global economic growth and volatile markets mean we are living in uncertain times, where free trade could be the primary force of prosperity throughout history. It will help to build the long-term security that people around the world need right now.

    UK

    Conclusion

    • In the economic uncertainty, free trade can be considered as answer to building the long-term security that people around the world need right now. In this, the year of its 75th anniversary since Independence and its G20 Presidency, India is on a path to a new economic future. It would be great to have UK alongside on this journey, as we together can use trade to benefit our citizens and the world.

    Mains question

    Q. Trade between India and UK is on upward trend. Free trade agreement between the two will surely benefit both the countries. How India can take advantage of the FTA between the two?

    (Click) FREE1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • Indian Army and PLA clash near Arunachal Border

    arunachal-lac

    The Indian troops deployed in the area of face-off in Tawang sector gave a befitting response to the Chinese troops and the number of Chinese soldiers injured in the clash is more than the Indian soldiers.

    Increased clashes at LAC

    • In January 2021, Indian and Chinese troops were involved in a face-off in a disputed stretch in Nakula area of North Sikkim.
    • In 2017, troops of India and China were engaged in a 73-day stand-off in Doklam tri-junction area which even triggered fears of a war between the two neighbours.

    What is LAC- the Line of Actual Control?

    • The LAC is the demarcation that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory.
    • India considers the LAC to be 3,488 km long, while the Chinese consider it to be only around 2,000 km.
    • It is divided into three sectors: the eastern sector which spans Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, the middle sector in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and the western sector in Ladakh.
    • The LAC is only a concept – it is not agreed upon by the two countries, neither delineated on a map nor demarcated on the ground.

    When did India accept the LAC?

    • The LAC was discussed during Chinese Premier Li Peng’s 1991 visit to India, where PM P V Narasimha Rao and Li reached an understanding to maintain peace and tranquillity at the LAC.
    • India formally accepted the concept of the LAC when Rao paid a return visit to Beijing in 1993 and the two sides signed the Agreement to Maintain Peace and Tranquillity at the LAC.
    • The reference to the LAC was unqualified to make it clear that it was not referring to the LAC of 1959 or 1962 but to the ‘LAC’ at the time when the agreement was signed.
    • To reconcile the differences about some areas, the two countries agreed that the Joint Working Group on the border issue would take up the task of clarifying the alignment of the LAC.

    Issues with LAC

    • India’s claim line is the line seen in the official boundary marked on the maps as released by the Survey of India, including both Aksai Chin and Gilgit-Baltistan.
    • In China’s case, it corresponds mostly to its claim line, but in the eastern sector, it claims entire Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet.
    • However, the claim lines come into question when a discussion on the final international boundaries takes place, and not when the conversation is about a working border, say the LAC.

    Why is LAC so disputed?

    • The delineation of the LAC has also not been done based on the accepted norms of control.
    • This has resulted in the existence of a number of areas of differing perceptions all across the LAC which is the primary cause of conflict.
    • China has changed its documented stance and has been looking for justifications for the conflict escalation.

    Worry for India

    • China is developing infrastructure in the Indian-claimed areas.
    • Moreover, it is being developed at an unprecedented pace by China in these areas.
    • These are potential sovereignty markers which will be a restricting factor for future negotiations.

     

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    (Click) FREE 1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • Understanding the principal contradiction, keeping China at the Centre

    contradiction

    Context

    • If principal contradictions must determine strategic priorities, New Delhi should decide what its principal contradiction is. China is contemporary India’s principal strategic contradiction. Every other challenge, be it Pakistan, internal insurgencies, and difficulties in relations with its neighbours, fall in the category of secondary contradictions.

    What is principal contradiction?

    • The concept of a principal contradiction is one that poses the most intense challenge to an individual/organisation, and has the power to shape its future choices and consequent outcomes useful method of optimising and prioritising strategic decision-making.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    Principal contradiction with China

    • Straightforward question over the decisions taken by the policymakers: Major decisions in New Delhi’s strategic decision matrix should pass the China test, which amounts to asking and answering a rather straightforward question: “does x or y decision/development/relationship help deal with the China challenge, or not?”
    • China test a tool for policy making: A perspicacious ‘China test’ can help prioritise strategic decision making in the longer run, at least as an analytical tool with potential policy utility.

    Elements of ‘China test’

    • From an operational point of view, the ‘China test’ consists of three distinct elements.
    • Assessment of Indian decisions: an assessment of how a certain Indian decision or a specific regional development square with Chinese regional strategy or interests.
    • Assessment if the decisions need Modifications: An assessment of whether India’s decision or a certain regional development would require India to make modifications at the level of secondary contradictions.
    • Assessment if it requires a major policy change: An assessment of whether this would require any major policy changes internally. Let me highlight the utility of the ‘China test’ using a few examples.

    contradiction

    Analysis of India-U.S. relations applying the China test

    • Relations are more of Interest driven: New Delhi has had a complicated relationship with Washington which is increasingly getting normalised and interests-driven. Despite its withdrawal from the region, Washington is seeking to re-engage southern Asia (Pakistan, South Asia in general, the Indo-Pacific, and perhaps even the Taliban).
    • India’s growing proximity to the U.S: It appears that one of the lessons New Delhi learnt from the standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in 2020 was that it was perhaps a consequence of India’s growing proximity to the U.S.
    • lack of/lukewarm India-U.S. strategic engagement in the region may help China: Given that Beijing seeks to dominate the region, it is clearly not in its interest to see an American reengagement of the region or growing India-U.S. proximity. If so, the lack of/lukewarm India-U.S. strategic engagement in the region is precisely what would help Beijing’s long-term objectives.

    contradiction

    Analysis of India-Russia relations applying the China test

    • Relations in the wake of Ukraine war: India-Russia relations in the wake of the Ukraine war are among the most debated bilateral relationships in the world today.
    • Question arises by applying the China test: India-Russia relations in the face of western pressure on India to decouple from Moscow. “Does continuing its relationship with Moscow help New Delhi better deal with the China challenge?”
    • What the U.S. and its allies offer India to condemn Russia: The U.S. and its allies would like India to stop engaging with Moscow and condemn its aggression against Ukraine which India has refused to do so far. In return, there is on offer greater accommodation of Indian interests including perhaps diplomatic and political support against Chinese aggression.
    • The challenge of growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing: There is also the growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing which reduces the robustness of India-Russia relations. So, does the China test require New Delhi to continue to engage with Moscow against all these odds?

    contradiction

    What could be the consequences If India chooses to accept the US offer and deviate from strong India-Russia ties?

    • Sino-Russian cooperation is likely to strengthen: In the absence of an India-Russia relationship, the extent of Sino-Russian cooperation is likely to strengthen, and India will be cut out of the continental space to its north and west.
    • China may replace India as a Natural beneficiary of energy at discounted price and thereby support to Pakistan: New Delhi continues to get discounted energy, cheaper defence equipment If India decides to break away from Russia, many of these could come to a grinding halt, and the natural beneficiary of such an eventuality will, undoubtedly, be China. This could also push Moscow towards Pakistan with or without some nudging from Beijing.
    • India a trusted partner for Russia: It is also important to note that Moscow is not keen to have China dominate the strategic space around it and has been keen to balance the growing influence of China in Central Asia with partners such as New Delhi. New Delhi’s turn away from Moscow will ensure that China gets a free hand in Central Asia too. In one sense, therefore, the China piece best explains the enigma called India-Russia relations.

    What the China test suggests?

    • Avoiding the short-term temptation and look a bigger picture: New Delhi should not give into the short-term temptation of not being on the wrong side of China given its long-term implications. While the fears of such a relationship irking China may not be entirely unjustified, they invariably play into the Chinese strategy of boxing India in the region.
    • Break away from Russia may likely to play in Chinese strategy for Boxing India: If indeed New Delhi was to completely break away from Russia (as India’s U.S. and western partners have asked India to), Such a decision is most likely to play into China’s hands. India-Russia relations are on the wane, there is a strong rationale for New Delhi to continue its relationship with Moscow which is China.
    • China test require India to pacify its relationship with Pakistan: The question to ask here is “does making (relative) peace with Pakistan help India better deal with China?”. For China, the best-case scenario is an India vigorously preoccupied with Pakistan which ensures that India is not focused on the growing threat from China, thereby providing Beijing with the opportunity to displace traditional Indian primacy in South Asia. So, for India, a course-correction on Pakistan, even if it is only post facto, is a strategically sensible one.
    • Focus should on China, more than the Pakistan: What India should actively seek is not a balance of power in South Asia with Pakistan but balancing Chinese power in Southern Asia. Hence, India’s objective in South Asia should be to seek a pacification of conflicts with Pakistan, so that it can focus on China.

    Conclusion

    • For New Delhi, the message from the China test is a rather straightforward one that the smart balancing China in Southern Asia and beyond must form a key element in India’s grand strategic planning and decision making.

    Mains question

    Q. What do you understand by the concept of principal contradiction? Explain it shortly keeping China at the Centre of India’s strategic planning and decision making.

    (Click) FREE1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

     

  • Singapore Declaration of ILO

    CONTEXT: The 17th Asia-Pacific Regional Meeting of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) set ten-point priorities of national action under the Singapore Declaration.

    Singapore Declaration

    • It seeks to draw attention for the member countries to deal with the issue of dwindling wages of workers, inflation and unemployment.
    • It was adopted by the delegates representing governments, employers and workers’ governments, employers and workers in the regions.
    • Members agreed that social dialogue is essential to address labour market challenges and finding solutions in crisis situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters, and economic uncertainty.

    Key point priorities

    1. Ensure labour protection for all through the promotion of freedom of association
    2. Recognition of the right to collective bargaining, including for workers in vulnerable situations and workers in the informal economy, as enabling rights for decent work
    3. Closing gender gaps, increase women’s labour force participation, promote equal pay for work of equal value, balance work and responsibilities, and promoting women’s leadership.
    4. Develop and implement inclusive labour market programmes and policies that support life transitions and demographic shifts.
    5. Pursue collective and determined efforts to promote and accelerate a smooth and sustained transition from the informal to formal economy
    6. Strengthen governance frameworks and respect for freedom of association for migrant workers
    7. Strengthen the foundation for social and employment protection and resilience
    8. Expanding social protection to all workers, guaranteeing universal access to comprehensive, adequate and sustainable social protection for all

     

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    (Click) FREE 1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • G20: India at Urban20 (U20)

    G20

    Context

    • Fifty percent of the world’s population currently lives in urban areas, which is projected to increase by 1.5 times to 6 billion. However, cities continue to face mounting challenges in accommodating the needs of this rapidly expanding population. As a catalyst for global change, what promises can India’s presidency hold for half the world’s urban population?

    Background

    • India’s G20 presidency began on December 1. It will be driven by the underlying vision of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, best encapsulated by the motto “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.
    • G20’s Sustainable Development agenda aligns itself with sustainable actions to meet the goals of the 2030 Agenda.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    G20

    What is Urban 20 (U20)?

    • A city diplomacy initiative within G20 ecosystem: Within the G20 ecosystem, a city diplomacy initiative called the “Urban 20” (U20) was launched in December 2017. As one of the formal Engagement Groups under G20, the U20 forum was meant to collectively raise critical urban issues of G20 cities during the G20 negotiations.
    • Special emphasis on cities: U20’s City Sherpas emphasise on the increasing importance of cities (both G20 and non-G20) as a country’s engines of innovation, economic growth, and productivity.
    • Focus on climate change and sustainable development: U20 specifically focuses on climate change, sustainable development, and socio-economic issues in connection with the Sustainable Development Goals.
    • Largely remained a platform of recommendation: Despite U20’s concerted efforts to run parallel to G20, the absence of any written constitution, procedures, or formal agreement has made U20 unable to effectively address the aspirations and concerns of cities. U20 seems to have largely remained a platform for expression and making recommendations without being able to directly influence urban planning or implement policy initiatives.
    • In this backdrop India has a unique opportunity: Within this framework, India now has the unique opportunity to outline and action specific U20 goals to link with the larger objectives of one of the most influential international forums.

    How U20 2023 provides an unique opportunity to India?

    • India’s U20 prospect can work towards engaging in meaningful policymaking and investments towards fulfilling the global 2030 Agenda.
    • By mindfully planning the allocation of urban resources and inspiring sustainable practices, India can set a new balanced template. While learning from the best practices of some of the soundest cities,

    G20

    How India can initiate actions at U20

    • Prioritizing post Covid urban social and emotional wellbeing: In a post-pandemic world, U20 2023 can priorities the role of urban mental health to raise awareness of its bearing as a consequence of an overpowering-built environment Urban amenities must account for the improvement of the overall quality of life and social-emotional well-being.
    • Emphasizing on efficient data and policies: U20 2023 can create a primer for effective data collection, analysis, monitoring, and reporting for timely assessment or urban plans to align with G20 and national agendas. Going further, India must emphasize policies for efficient data use and supporting data governance.
    • Increasing efficiency of digital services and bridging the digital divide gap: Digital literacy in urban India is only at 61 percent, suggesting a pervading low awareness of the government’s e-services. Moreover, gender biases in technology and digital skills lead to a greater gender digital divide suggesting a huge disparity in access to digital services. New regulatory frameworks are needed to encourage research and investment in bridging such gaps.
    • Gender inclusive planning to develop equitable cities: U20 2023 can call for global collaborations to develop equitable cities by engaging in dialogues around gender-inclusive planning. This is not only to benefit women and children but to include representation of diverse marginalised genders and LGBTQ+ persons in the urban planning process.
    • Prioritizing capacity building and training for city planners: It is also essential to highlight the importance of capacity building and training for planners and civic officials about the various sensitivities and impacts of urban development plans. India can bolster global joint discussions around increased investment in urban healthcare facilities.
    • Boosting investment in sustainable energy transition: While delivering on the Paris Agreement and the New Urban Agenda and 2030 Agenda, India can reinforce direct investment in areas such as sustainable energy and mobility transition. For instance, managing the risks of urban flooding in a changing climate has become a global focus area for policymakers.
    • Investing in quality education and skill development: With cities bourgeoning, investing in quality education and skilling has become critical to better prepare for the future of work and jobs for. Policies, across sectors, must support better skilling and training for entrepreneurship. For example, while the PM Employment Generation Programme and other Credit Support Schemes support MSMEs for training the youth and generating employment, we are yet to see their effectiveness and outreach. On the other hand, the rising trend of the gig economy demands innovative policymaking to accommodate the aspirations of the urban youth.
    • Local participation must be enhanced: Most importantly, U20 2023 can reinforce the importance of local-regional involvement for the integration of perspectives at the national and sub-national government bodies as the way forward. Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) can be strengthened further to facilitate basic infrastructure needs, inclusive economic growth and equitable development.

    G20

    How India can lead?

    • India’s theme of G20 2023 holds the promise of interconnectedness to bring in an attitudinal change through deliberation, partnerships, dialogues, cooperation and knowledge-sharing.
    • India can lead the way for global response and action by setting the stage for newer partnerships and agreements to facilitate community empowerment and social justice at both the local and societal levels.
    • By stressing on equity, inclusivity, sustainability and resilience, U20 2023 will be able to honour its commitment to establish better cities.

    Conclusion

    • By exploring the interlinkages and shared issues related to urban planning, India can help pave the way to bring about a global consensus for renewed urban vigour.

     

  • SAARC vs BIMSTEC

    SAARC

    Context

    • December 8 is commemorated as SAARC Charter Day. It was on this day, 37 years ago, that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), an intergovernmental organization, was established.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    What is SAARC?

    • Establishment: The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established with the signing of the SAARC Charter in Dhaka on 8 December 1985.
    • Members: It is an intergovernmental organization, was established by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Afghanistan acceded to SAARC later.
    • Secretariat: The Secretariat of the Association was set up in Kathmandu on 17 January 1987.
    • Objectives: The objectives as outlined in the SAARC Charter are, to promote the welfare of the peoples of South Asia and to improve their quality of life; to accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region and to provide all individuals the opportunity to live in dignity and to realize their full potentials; to promote and strengthen collective self-reliance among the countries of south Asia.

    What SAARC has achieved?

    • SAARC has failed abjectly in accomplishing most of its objectives.
    • South Asia continues to be an extremely poor and least integrated region in the world.
    • The intraregional trade and investment in South Asia are very low when compared to other regions such as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Sub-Saharan Africa.
    • Pakistan has adopted an obstructionist attitude within SAARC by repeatedly blocking several vital initiatives such as the motor vehicles agreement, aimed at bolstering regional connectivity.
    • Deepening hostility between India and Pakistan has made matters worse. Since 2014, no SAARC summit has taken place leaving the organisation rudderless, and practically dead.

    SAARC

    But why to bother about SAARC?

    • South Asia is important for India’s national interest: Because South Asia, that is India’s neighbourhood, is important for India’s national interests. This is best captured in the current government’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.
    • SAARC, a pan south Asia reach: SAARC is the only intergovernmental organisation with a pan-South Asia reach. India can judiciously employ it to serve its interests in the entire region.
    • Weakened SAARC means heightened instability: A weakened SAARC also means heightened instability in other promising regional institutions such as the South Asian University (SAU), which is critical to buttressing India’s soft power in the region.

    Bilateralism or regionalism, which one is best for India?

    • Bilateralism can complement, not substitute regional efforts: A new narrative is that in South Asia, India can successfully use the instrument of bilateralism over regionalism to pursue its interests. While bilateralism is undoubtedly important, it can at best complement, not substitute, regional or multilateral efforts.
    • Regionalism in East Asia and Africa: Regionalism has brought immense success in other parts such as East Asia and Africa. Regionalism can deliver prosperity in the South Asian region too, especially because multilateralism is weakening.
    • concept of new regional economic order: Looking at ASEAN’s spectacular success in regional integration, international lawyers Julien Chaisse and Pasha L. Hsieh have developed the concept of a new regional economic order, a process through which developing countries search for a trade-development model, based on incrementalism and flexibility; this is different from the neoliberal model laid down by the Washington Consensus.

    SAARC

    What is BIMSTEC?

    • Regional organization of seven members lying in or adjacent to BOB: The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization comprising seven Member States lying in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal constituting a contiguous regional unity.
    • Establishment: This sub-regional organization came into being on 6 June 1997 through the Bangkok Declaration.
    • Act as a bridge between South and South East Asia: The regional group constitutes a bridge between South and South East Asia and represents a reinforcement of relations among these countries.
    • Provides Inter regional cooperation platforms: BIMSTEC has also established a platform for intra-regional cooperation between SAARC and ASEAN members.

    Did you Know?

    • BIMSTEC comprises five South Asian nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, India and Sri Lanka) and two ASEAN countries (Myanmar and Thailand).
    • Pakistan is NOT a BIMSTEC member.

    Importance of BIMSTEC for India

    • India shifted its diplomatic energy from SAARC to BIMSTEC: In recent years, India seems to have moved its diplomatic energy away from SAARC to BIMSTEC. This resulted in BIMSTEC, after 25 years, finally adopting its Charter earlier this year.
    • BIMSTEC is better than SAAC charter: The BIMSTEC Charter is significantly better than the SAARC Charter. For instance, unlike the SAARC Charter, Article 6 of the BIMSTEC Charter talks about the ‘Admission of new members’ to the group. This paves the way for the admission of countries such as the Maldives.
    • However no flexible formula like ‘ASEAN Minus X’: Notwithstanding the improvements, the BIMSTEC Charter, to boost economic integration, does not contain the flexible participation scheme of the kind present in the ASEAN Charter. This flexible scheme, also known as the ‘ASEAN Minus X’ formula, allows two or more ASEAN members to initiate negotiations for economic commitments. Thus, no country enjoys veto power to thwart economic integration between willing countries.
    • Obstructionist attitude of Pakistan within SAARC: Given the experience of SAARC, where Pakistan routinely vetoes several regional integration initiatives, it is surprising that BIMSTEC does not contain such a flexible participation scheme. A flexible ‘BIMSTEC Minus X’ formula might have allowed India and Bangladesh or India and Thailand to conduct their ongoing bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations under the broader BIMSTEC umbrella. This would have eventually strengthened BIMSTEC by enabling the gradual and incremental expansion of these binding commitments to other members. India should press for this amendment in the BIMSTEC Charter.

    Some steps to take

    • BIMSTEC should not end up as another SAARC: For this, its member countries should raise the stakes. A high-quality FTA offering deep economic integration, something that Prime Minister Narendra Modi also advocated at the last BIMSTEC ministerial meeting would be an ideal step.
    • India should try make the organizations flexible to ensure peace and prosperity in the region: Likewise, India should explore legal ways to move successful SAARC institutions such as SAU to BIMSTEC. These steps will give stronger roots to BIMSTEC and enable erecting a new South Asian regional order based on incrementalism and flexibility, ushering in prosperity and peace in the region.

    Conclusion

    • Since South Asia cannot repudiate regionalism, reviving SAARC by infusing political energy into it and updating its dated Charter will be an ideal way forward. However, in the current scenario, this is too idealistic. So, the next best scenario is to look at other regional instruments such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

    Mains Question

    Q. India seems to have shifted its diplomatic energies away from SAARC to BIMSTEC in recent years. What are the reasons for doing so?

    (Click) FREE1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • The soft approach: India-Myanmar

    Myanmar

    Context

    • On November 20-21, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra made a two-day visit to Myanmar. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a press release stated that he met with members of the military junta that is currently ruling the country and discussed security and stability in the border areas, human trafficking issues (several Indian nationals have been victims), and infrastructure development.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    Myanmar

    What are the interpretations over the foreign Secretary’s visit?

    • Myanmar’s national portal says discussion on friendly relations: According to Myanmar National portal, the two sides held discussions on Myanmar-India friendly relations, exchanged views on the promotion of bilateral cooperation and the implementation of Myanmar’s peace process.
    • India’s no mention of Myanmar’s return to democracy: The MEA statement made no mention of any Indian interest in seeing Myanmar return to the path of democracy or the release of political prisoners and other tricky issues.
    • Emphasis on completing the ongoing projects: On the contrary, the foreign secretary spoke about continued Indian support for “people-centric socio-economic developmental projects” and early completion of connectivity projects including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway between India, Myanmar, and Thailand.
    • Assured development Programs: It appears that infrastructure and developmental projects were a big emphasis during the visit because Kwatra also assured the Myanmar junta about projects under Rakhine State Development Program and Border Area Development Program.
    • Contradictory omissions: Despite the MEA press release not mentioning it, the MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi tweeted that the foreign secretary had discussions on several important issues including “India’s support to democratic transition in Myanmar.”

    Myanmar

    Background of the different interpretations

    • MEA’s 2021 statement that India’s interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy: Contrast this with the December 2021 statement that the MEA issued following then-Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s visit where he emphasized India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; resolution of issues through dialogue; and complete cessation of all violence.”
    • India’s strong and consistent support to ASEAN: He had also reiterated that India’s strong and consistent support to the ASEAN initiative and expressed hope that progress would be made in a pragmatic and constructive manner, based on the five point consensus.

    Myanmar

    What are the India’s concerns?

    • Human trafficking emerged as the major issue: Human trafficking has emerged as a major issue in Myanmar, with several criminal syndicates running a racket luring Indian citizens with fake job prospects. The MEA spokesperson, according to media reports, cautioned Indian nationals of being wary of trafficking. IT companies recruiting Indian workers in the pretext of jobs in Thailand, who were then taken to Myanmar. There have been reportedly close to 200 Indian nationals who have been duped into this job racket.
    • China’s support to Military Junta: Since the military coup, China has improved on its good relations with the military junta, providing much-needed support for the Myanmar leadership in the face of international opprobrium.
    • Chinas’ high investment in Myanmar: China reportedly has been a key source of foreign investment in Myanmar. China’s multiple projects include several high-speed railway lines and dams as well as a $2.5 billion investment in a gas-fired power plant. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which consists of oil and gas pipelines and infrastructure development projects run into billions of dollars.
    • China’s aim to get better access to Indian ocean: Of particular interest to China is the deep sea port that China plans to develop at Kyaukphyu, on Myanmar’s west coast, this will possibly give China better access to the Indian Ocean, which China has been eyeing for a while.
    • Budding relationship between Myanmar and Pakistan a cause of concern: According to media reports, Myanmar took the delivery of six JF-17 light-weight multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan in 2018 after signing a contract two years earlier in 2016. Myanmar was to get another batch of 10 aircraft although the date of delivery is unknown.

    Rational behind India’s changed interest in Myanmar’s return to democracy

    • Pragmatism on account of the growing presence and inroads of China in Myanmar has possibly pushed India to give up on its moralizing about democracy and increase its outreach to Naypyidaw.
    • While the pro-democracy elements within Myanmar as well as India’s strategic partners in ASEAN may not be particularly pleased with this outreach, especially India dropping ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, it appears that New Delhi sees itself as having not too many choices

    Conclusion

    • Strategic factors appear to be driving India’s greater engagement with the military junta, especially fear of China and Pakistan making inroads into the country. India has to maintain delicate balance while dealing with the ruling military junta.

    Mains question

    Q. In the backdrop of much speculations about the recent visit of India’s foreign secretary to Myanmar. Discuss India’s evolving position, which shows a soft approach towards the ruling military junta.

    (Click) FREE1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • The ‘Global South’ Narrative

    south

    As India assumed the presidency of the G20 group of countries for 2022 to 2023, EAM S Jaishankar said on December 1 that India would be the voice of the Global South that is otherwise under-represented in such forums.

    What is ‘Global South’?

    • The term has since been used multiple times, such as when Jaishankar said of ongoing global conflicts, “polarisation may occur elsewhere, the people who suffer most are the Global South”.
    • ‘Global North’ refers loosely to countries like the US, Canada, Europe, Russia, Australia and New Zealand, while ‘Global South’ includes countries in Asia, Africa and South America.

    Behind the binary difference: ‘Global North’ and the ‘Global South’

    • For a long time in the study of international political systems, the method of categorising countries into broad categories for easier analysis has existed.
    • The concepts of ‘East’ and ‘West’ is one example of this, with the Western countries generally signifying greater levels of economic development and prosperity among their people.
    • Eastern countries were considered as being in the process of that transition.

    What are other such categorizations?

    • Another similar categorisation is of First World, Second World and Third World countries.
    • It referred to countries associated with the Cold war-era alliances of the US, the USSR, and non-aligned countries, respectively.
    • The idea of the “third” world underlined that it was not only different from the “first” — the capitalist West — but also and the second — the socialist “East”.

    Concept behind: World Systems Approach

    • At the centre of these concepts is the World Systems approach introduced by sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein in 1974, emphasising an interconnected perspective of looking at world politics.
    • He said there are three major zones of production: core, peripheral and semi-peripheral.
    • The core zones reap profits, being the owners of cutting-edge technologies – countries like the US or Japan.
    • Peripheral zones, on the other hand, engage in less sophisticated production that is more labour-intensive.
    • In the middle are countries like India and Brazil.

    Need for new terms

    (1) Global shift of powers

    • In the post-Cold War world, the First World/Third World classification was no longer feasible.
    • This is because when the Communist USSR disintegrated in 1991, most countries had no choice but to ally at some level with the capitalist US – the only remaining global superpower.

    (2) Monolithic classification

    • The East/West binary was seen as often perpetuating stereotypical thinking about African and Asian countries.
    • Categorising incredibly diverse countries into a monolith was felt to be too simplistic.
    • Also, the idea that some countries were ‘developed’ while others were not was thought to be too wide a classification, inadequate for accurately discussing concerns.

    (3) Issues with Developed vs. Developing

    • Writing in 2014 from the perspective of his organisation’s philanthropic activities, Bill Gates said of the ‘developing’ tag.
    • It found an irony that- any category that lumps China and the Democratic Republic of Congo together confuses more than it clarifies.
    • Some so-called developing countries have come so far that it’s fair to say they have developed.
    • A handful of failed states are hardly developing at all. Most countries are somewhere in the middle.

    Emergence of Global South

    • Colonial past: A big commonality between the South countries is that most have a history of colonization, largely at the hands of European powers.
    • No say since de-colonization: Region’s historical exclusion from prominent international organizations – such as from the permanent membership of the UN is intriguing.
    • Consciousness for decision-making: As bodies like the UN and the IMF are involved in major decision-making that affect the world in terms of politics, economy and society, the exclusion is seen by these countries as contributing to their slower growth.
    • Economic emergence: China and India have emerged economically sound in the past two decades.
    • Declining US hegemony: Many consider the world to now be multipolar rather than one where the US alone dominates international affairs.
    • Climate reparations: In the ongoing debate adds Northern countries paying for funding green energy, having historically contributed to higher carbon emissions.

    Criticism of the classification

    • Only few players: South simply aims to replace the North and the positions it occupies, again continuing a cycle in which a few countries accumulate crucial resources.
    • More of a India vs. China competition: Much controversy currently surrounds the question of whether elites of the global South and ‘rising powers’ genuinely have the intention to challenge the dominant structures of global capitalist development”.
    • Anti-china motive: China’s tentative “going out” strategy at the turn of the century eventually morphed into the expansive Belt and Road Initiative.

    Where does India stand?

    • No further diplomatic groupism: EAM S Jaishankar India’s objective is not to rebuild a global trade union against the North.
    • Bridging the divide: India is eager to become a bridge between the North and the South by focusing on practical outcomes rather than returning to old ideological battles.

    Challenges

    • Political consistency: In the past, India’s ideological enthusiasm for the Global South was not matched by material power and political will.
    • Bridging the neighbours: India must also come to terms with the fact that the Global South is not a coherent group and does not have a single shared agenda.
    • Despaired south: There is much differentiation within the South today in terms of wealth and power, needs and capabilities.
    • Defiance from NAM: India’s Third World strategy (and Non-Aligned Movement) in the Cold War era was undermined by multiple internal and regional conflicts within the Global South.

    Way ahead

    • More engagement in neighborhood: Championing the Global South today would demand more active Indian engagement with the messy regional politics within the developing world.
    • Political coherence: If India can translate this ambition into effective policy, there will be no contradiction between the simultaneous pursuit of universal and particular goals.

     

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    (Click) FREE 1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • Price cap on Russia’s Oil and India’s contextual response

    cap

    Context

    • Recently, G7 proposal to impose a price cap on Russian oil came into effect. The proposal, which took months to fructify, seeks to achieve a delicate balance how to starve the Russian state of oil revenues so as to financially cripple its war against Ukraine, but without causing supply disruptions in the global oil market which would cause prices to spiral. The move, however, risks fracturing the global crude oil market.

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    What is Price cap on Russian oil?

    • The $60 per barrel and denial of infrastructure services to Russian oil: The $60 per barrel cap is intended to cut Russia’s oil revenues while keeping Russian crude on the market by denying insurance, maritime services, and finance provided by the Western allies for tanker cargoes priced above a fixed dollar-per-barrel cap.
    • Aim to hurt Russia’s oil revenue and create a pressure: The US-proposed cap aims to hurt Moscow’s finances while avoiding a sharp oil price spike if Russia’s oil is suddenly taken off the global market.
    • Impact on shipping: Without insurance, tanker owners may be reluctant to take on Russian oil and face obstacles in delivering it.

    cap

    Russian response to the price cap

    • Russia refused to abide by the measure: Russia has said it will not observe a cap and will halt deliveries to countries that do.
    • Retaliate by shutting off the shipments: It could retaliate by shutting off shipments in hopes of profiting from a sharply higher global oil price on whatever it can sell around the sanctions.
    • Russia said price cap will not hurt financing the war: Russia recently said that the cap would not hurt the financing of its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
    • Others buyers may bypass the restrictions putting countries interests first: Buyers in China and India might not go along with the cap, while Russia or China could try to set up their own insurance providers to replace those barred by US, UK and Europe. It is also possible that these countries will find creative ways to bypass the restrictions imposed by the G7.

    cap

    How impacts global oil supply chain?

    • Russian oil can now only be shipped using G7 countries infrastructure: Broadly speaking, Russian oil can now be shipped across the world using the infrastructure of the G7 countries tankers, insurers, etc only if it is sold at a price of $60 per barrel or less.
    • Higher price for buying oil from Russia: This makes buying oil from Russia at a higher price in the week prior to this announcement, Urals crude was trading in the mid-$60s range  a difficult proposition as most of the companies that offer shipping and insurance services are located in these G7 nations.
    • Countries wish to buy are at disadvantage but still not higher than brent crude oil: While Russia has refused to abide by this measure, and the cap will place countries that do opt for buying oil from Russia at a price higher than $60 at a disadvantage, it will still be at a considerable discount compared to Brent crude oil which is currently trading at around $81 per barrel.
    • Countries that continued trade despite of objections: So far, despite objections from western nations, countries like India and China have continued to trade with Russia.

    cap

    India’s response and the bilateral trade with Russia

    • India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high: In fact, as reported in this paper, India’s bilateral trade with Russia has surged to an all-time high in the first five months of the year (April-August).
    • India putting its interests first and taking advantage of discounted price: Putting its interests first, India has raised its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of the discounts being offered the country which used to import less than 1 per cent of its import requirement from Russia, now imports around a fifth from it.
    • As India is an oil importer, the trade at discounted price will give some relief in current account deficit and economic stability: After all, for an oil importer like India, which meets an overwhelming share of its requirements through imports, lower crude oil prices will moderate the price pressures in the economy and bring relief to the current account deficit, easing risks to macroeconomic stability.
    • India rejected the so-called moral duty: India has rejected any “moral” duty to join the price cap coalition.

    Conclusion

    • Attempts to use trade as a weapon will only distort the global market and hurt energy-poor consumers not responsible for the war. India’s response so far to the West’s retaliation against Russia for the war in Ukraine has been guided by its sovereign interests. This must continue to be the guiding principle.

    Mains Question

    Q. G7 recently imposed a price cap on Russian oil driven by US and west. In light of this Discuss how it disrupt the global oil supply chain and how India is responding?

    (Click) FREE1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more

  • China reiterates ‘No First Use’ Nuke Policy

    China responded to a US report alleging a major build-up in Beijing’s nuclear capabilities. It said, it adheres to its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

    What is the news?

    • The Pentagon released an annual China security report that warned Beijing would likely have 1,500 nuclear.
    • China currently has 350 nuclear warheads.
    • As of 2022, Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads compared to 5,428 in the US inventory.

    What is ‘No First Use’ Doctrine?

    • In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, NFU is a commitment to never use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances, whether as a pre-emptive attack or first strike, or in response to non-nuclear attack of any kind.

    Where do nuclear-armed countries stand on No First Use?

    • China is the only nuclear-armed country to have an unconditional NFU policy.
    • India maintains a policy of NFU with exceptions for a response to chemical or biological attacks.
    • France, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the UK and the US maintain policies that permit the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict.
    • Israel does not acknowledge the existence of its nuclear arsenal so has no publicly known position.

    Why advocate for global NFU commitments now?

    • The world after US bombing of Japan has never faced any crises that could escalate to nuclear conflict.
    • In addition to the precarious situation on the Korean peninsula, we’re running acceptably high risks of nuclear weapons use between-
    1. NATO and Russia: Amid ongoing Ukrainian Invasion
    2. India and Pakistan: Jihadist acquiring nuclear weapons
    3. US and China: Due to provocations over the South China Sea and Taiwan
    • In fact right now the chances that nuclear weapons will be used — intentionally, accidentally, or due to miscalculation — are the highest they’ve been since the worst days of the Cold War.
    • Establishing global NFU would immediately make the world safer by resolving uncertainty about what a nuclear-armed country might do in a crisis.
    • It removes pressure and incentive for any one country to “go nuclear” first in a crisis and thus create a moral obligation on others.

    Consequences of nuclear war

    • Any use of a nuclear weapon would invite massive retaliation.
    • Not to mention the horrific aftermath of nuclear war.
    • A 2014 study shows that so-called “limited” nuclear war in South Asia, in which 100 nuclear weapons are used, would have global consequences.
    • Millions of tons of smoke would be sent into the atmosphere, plunging temperatures and damaging the global food supply.
    • Two billion people would be at risk of death by starvation.

    What lies ahead?

    • Global No First Use would be an important step toward making nuclear weapons irrelevant to national security.
    • These policies would strip nuclear weapons of value in the eyes of military planners, enable future nuclear disarmament negotiations, and accelerate the dismantling of these weapons.
    • It would also serve as a “confidence-building measure” that establishes greater trust among nuclear-armed countries.
    • It thus makes it easier to work together to reduce nuclear risks and ultimately eliminate all nuclear weapons.

     

    Click and get your FREE Copy of CURRENT AFFAIRS Micro Notes

    (Click) FREE 1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more